Demand For Foreign Oil Driven To Low In China
中国11月原油进口量降至今年以来的最低水平，这进一步显示出中国经济的持续走软正导致石油需求急剧萎缩。
China's monthly crude oil imports in November hit their lowest level this year, providing more evidence that a weakening domestic economy is translating into sharply reduced oil demand.
许多分析师预计今明两年全球原油消耗量将出现下滑，一个主要原因就是中国石油消耗量持续大幅下降。全球石油需求正在急剧萎缩，以致于沙特阿拉伯和伊朗等石油输出国组织(OPEC, 简称：欧佩克)的主要产油国可能都来不及及时迅速减产，导致市场出现供过于求的局面；一些分析师目前预计，明年全年油价可能都会因此低于每桶50美元。
The steep continued drop in Chinese oil use is one of the main reasons analysts are now predicting that world-wide crude consumption will decline both this year and next. The world's need for oil is ebbing so quickly that big producers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran may not be able to trim production fast enough, leading to an oversupply that some analysts now say could keep prices below $50 a barrel for all of next year.
纽约商交所周三午盘，轻质低硫原油期货上涨2.73美元，报每桶44.80美元，涨幅6.49%。当前油价比7月峰值下跌了100多美元。11月，纽约商交所原油价格从每桶65美元左右的价格一路下滑，最终跌破了每桶50美元。
Light, sweet crude was at $44.80 a barrel midday Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $2.73, or 6.49%. That's more than $100 a barrel below the July peak. In November, Nymex crude fell from around $65 a barrel to finish below $50 a barrel.
中国海关周三公布的初步数据显示，11月份中国进口原油1,336万吨，相当于每天进口原油326万桶。尽管上月原油价格大幅下滑，但中国原油进口量较10月份减少了17.3%，较上年同期的1,361万吨下滑了1.8%。中国上个月总计出口原油21万吨。
Preliminary customs data on Wednesday showed China imported 13.36 million metric tons of crude in November, equivalent to 3.26 million barrels per day. That's down 17.3% from the October volumes, despite a fall in crude oil prices over the month, and 1.8% lower than the 13.61 million tons of crude shipped in at the same stage of 2007. China's crude oil exports totaled 210,000 tons in November.
追踪中国石油趋势的分析师Paul Ting在近期一份报告中表示，美国石油消耗量正以上世纪八十年代以来未曾见过的速度急剧下降，而中国的石油需求萎缩步伐甚至比美国更为迅猛。
Paul Ting, an oil analyst who tracks oil trends in China, said in a recent report that demand in China is now declining more swiftly than in the U.S., where oil use is falling at a pace not seen since the 1980s.
在过去七年油价历史性涨势中，中国、印度和中东地区的旺盛需求一直是主要推动力。同样，今年夏天以来这些地区的需求走软也是当前油价持续走低的重要原因。
Booming demand in China, India and the Middle East have been the prime drivers in the historic run-up in oil prices over the last seven years. Slackening demand in those regions since this summer is a key force driving oil prices down.
中国需求走软的迹象是多方面的。尽管7月份以来国际油价急剧下跌，而中国政府制定的国内成品油却没有进行相应调整，给中国炼油商带来了不正常的诱人利润，但他们仍然减少了产量。
The signs of China's slackening demand are manifold. China's refiners are scaling back operations despite the lure of abnormal margins created by a sharp fall in crude prices since July and no corresponding adjustment in state-set caps on domestic oil product prices.
分析师们表示，中国可能正在利用油价下滑的时机补充更多的战略石油储备，这可能会提振原油进口，但这部分进口量不太可能抵消国内需求的下滑。据新华社报导，受国内石油需求下滑推动，截至10月底，中国两大炼油商中国石油天然气集团公司和中国石油化工集团公司共有汽油储备3,310万桶和柴油储备4,680万桶。
Analysts say China could be taking advantage of the slide in oil prices to fill more of its strategic petroleum reserve, which would prop up crude imports, but that volumes being used for this were unlikely to offset the decline in domestic demand. By the end of October, China National Petroleum Corp. and China Petrochemical Corp., the country's top two refiners, had built up stocks of 33.1 million barrels of gasoline and 46.8 million barrels of diesel due to slackening domestic oil demand, according to Xinhua news agency.
中国经济增长依赖于出口；据初步数据显示，中国11月出口额较上年同期下滑了2.2%，为2001年以来首次下降。出口下滑也带动了石油需求减少，那些主要生产出口到美国和欧洲的制造业产品的地区表现得尤为明显。
China's economy is dependent on exports, which fell 2.2% in November from the same month last year, according to preliminary data, the first fall since 2001. The drop has cut demand for oil, particularly in regions dependent on manufacturing goods for export to the U.S. and Europe.
据花旗集团(Citigroup)的数据，中国10月份工业增加值较上年同期增长8.2%，为2001年底以来最慢增幅。分析师们预计，中国11月工业增加值可能会较上年同期增长大约6%-7%，增速进一步放缓。
October's 8.2% expansion in industrial output from a year earlier was the slowest since late 2001, according to Citigroup. Analysts said November's industrial output growth likely slowed to around 6% to 7% from a year earlier.
中国已经对此采取了举措，计划在2010年前投资人民币4万亿元（5,900亿美元）并放松货币政策以期刺激经济增长。分析师们表示，这可能会推动石油需求的增长，但明年下半年之前恐怕难见成效。
China has sought to boost economic growth via a 4 trillion yuan ($590 billion) stimulus package through 2010 and by loosening monetary policy. Analysts say that this could result in stronger oil-demand growth, but that it won't be felt until around the second half of next year.
据上海的易贸资讯(CBIChina)提供的数据，中国石油化工股份有限公司旗下主要炼油厂12月可能会较上月减产6%，炼油量降至1,270万吨，合每天炼油300万桶。
In December, major refineries owned by China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec, were set to cut runs by 6% from November to 12.7 million tons, or 3 million barrels a day, according to information provided by Shanghai-based CBIChina.
中国石油天然气集团公司旗下上市子公司中国石油天然气股份有限公司一位管理人士表示，公司也计划减产，但幅度不像中国石化那么大。
PetroChina Co., the listed unit of CNPC, also planned to cut runs, but not as sharply as Sinopec, said an executive with the company.
中国还在削减从海外购买的成品油数量，中国是仅次于美国的全球第二大原油消费国。成品油进口量已经连续两个月触及两年多以来的最低水平。
China, the world's second-biggest crude oil consumer after the U.S., has also been scaling back purchases of refined oil products from overseas. For the second consecutive month, China's oil-product imports hit their lowest level in more than two years.
周三公布的数据显示，中国11月份总计进口193万吨成品油。
Wednesday's data showed China's combined oil-product imports amounted to 1.93 million tons in November.
不过，中国仍然是成品油净进口国，因为11月中国只出口了127万吨成品油。
Nevertheless, the country remained a net importer of oil products as China exported only 1.27 million tons of oil products in November.
David Winning
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