2009年1月28日星期三

英政府斥资23亿振兴汽车工业

英国政府将推出一项总值23亿英镑的一揽子计划,帮助振兴该国的汽车工业。

汽车业对英国的制造业至关重要,也是很多地区的经济命脉。

振兴计划包括解冻欧洲投资银行提供给汽车厂和主要供应商的13亿贷款。

主管商业事务的大臣曼德尔森表示,政府还会保证进一步、多达10亿的贷款,资助研制环保型汽车。

他强调,英国的汽车业并不是"无可救药",有关贷款也不是"拯救",而是协助它们彻底改造,以便迎接"低二氧化碳排放"的未来。

曼德尔森指出,汽车工业正处于衰退的前线,自从去年夏天以来,其下滑的速度就比其它任何一个行业都要快。

他表示,虽然业界已经得益于早前推出的消减2.5%增值税,但是政府还需要推出更多的措施。

曼德尔森还指出,如果汽车业有需要,政府还会把员工培训的费用从现在的6500万镑,增加到1亿镑。

英国政府日前公布的数字证实,英国经济15年来首次陷入衰退。

新数字显示,去年最后一个季度,英国经济萎缩了1.5%,这是自1980年以来单季最大跌幅。去年的第三季度经济萎缩只有0.5%。

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7850000/newsid_7854400/7854400.stm

日本宣布巨资救经济方案

日本政府说,如有需要将拨款援助民间企业。此举被看成是亚洲最大的经济体为对抗金融海啸所施展的最新努力。

在这之前,日本国会通过了额外的540亿美元预算。

其中包括向其国民发放现金,提振消费。

同一天,日本最大的国际证券公司-野村证券宣布去年第四季亏损了38亿美元,创下该公司的亏损纪录。

而NEC 东金电子则是宣布裁员9450人。在这些乌云笼罩之下,日本政府的宣布似乎像是一线阳光。

东京股市的日经指数随即上涨将近5%,但是分析人士担心日本经济长期低迷,就算股市上涨,也只是短暂的。

日本第二大汽车巨头-本田汽车为因应市场萎缩,宣布北美与日本生产线进一步减产。以美加两地的生产线为例,未来将减产29000辆汽车。

但是在汽车需求仍在增长的中国,本田将通过合资的东风本田增产,以满足中国市场的需要。

本田计划完全使用东风本田的产量,亦即年产24万汽车,令本田在中国的年产量扩大到65万辆。

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7850000/newsid_7853200/7853285.stm

2009年1月19日星期一

石油投资欺诈案出现井喷

After Oil Boom, A Gusher Of Investment-Fraud Cases

数千名在油气价格飙升时希望参与分享这一行情的投资者最终成了欺诈案的受害者。目前美国联邦和州监管部门正在着手解决此事。

Thousands of investors who sought a piece of the action when oil and gas prices were soaring fell victim to fraudulent schemes that federal and state regulators are now scrambling to address.

美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)说,有能源投资者起诉称,怀疑他们在2004年至2007年期间多次受骗,去年差点又落入圈套。尽管SEC拒绝透露确切的数字,但从法院文件中可以了解到,数千名投资者将数亿美元投入到了欺诈性的投资中。

The Securities and Exchange Commission says that complaints from energy investors who suspect they were swindled more than doubled between 2004 and 2007, and were on pace to double again last year. Though the agency declined to produce exact figures, it is clear from court documents that thousands of investors sunk hundreds of millions of dollars into fraudulent investments.

这些骗子通常是欺骗性的私人钻井合伙公司,投资者购买这些公司油井的少数股份,希望能在今后获得开采权益收入。随着油价快速下跌,这种简单的把戏现在已不那么流行了。原油价格已从去年7月每桶147美元的高点跌至如今的37美元。但当时的繁荣所带来的后果现在才真正感受到。

The offenders were typically fraudulent private drilling partnerships, in which investors buy small stakes in wells in the hopes that they will produce royalty income for years. Such sketchy offerings are less prevalent these days, with oil prices in the midst of a precipitous slide: The price of a barrel of crude oil has fallen from a peak of $147 in July to $37 today. But the fallout from the boom is only now being felt full force.

受害者遍布美国各地。肯塔基州证券部门主任斯托德(Jim Strode)说,我们在这个问题的处理上确实面临着很严峻的时刻。斯托德说他的办公室近期展开了10项油气方面的调查,其中大多涉及数十名甚至数百名投资者。同样,科罗拉多州证券专员约瑟夫(Fred Joseph)说,在他所在的州,油气目前仍是骗子盛行的领域。

Victims are spread across the country. 'We've had a real hard time getting a handle on it,' says Jim Strode, Kentucky's securities division director. Mr. Strode says his office currently has more than 10 open oil-and-gas investigations, most involving dozens and even hundreds of investors. Likewise, Colorado securities commissioner Fred Joseph says oil and gas is still 'the fraud du jour' among seasoned con men in his state.

去年11月,SEC组建了一个新的小组协调检察工作,并培训调查人员如何发现欺骗性的油气投资产品。这个小组中包括SEC的调查人员以及代表得克萨斯州、路易斯安那州、阿肯色州、俄克拉荷马州和堪萨斯州的机构。

In November, the SEC convened a new task force to coordinate prosecutions and train investigators on how to spot fraudulent oil-and-gas offerings. The task force includes investigators from the SEC, as well as agencies representing Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Kansas.

尽管存在固有的风险,但大多数私人钻井合伙公司都是合法的,一些金融规划师也会推荐它们,原因是税收方面的优势,包括能够冲减部分钻井成本、抵消一定比例的收入。

While inherently risky, most private drilling partnerships are legitimate, and some financial planners recommend them because of their tax advantages, which include being able to write off drilling costs and offset a percentage of income received.

尽管多年来油价持续上涨,但去年,随着石油价格创出新高、天然气大幅上涨及股市下跌,骗局的市场条件也趋成熟。个人投资者因此更容易落入能源项目推销者的圈套。

Though oil prices had been rising for years, the market became ripe for fraud in the past year, as oil prices climbed to their peak, gas prices similarly soared, and the stock market headed downward. That made individual investors particularly susceptible to pitches from energy promoters.

SEC驻得克萨斯州沃思堡执行主任罗梅罗(Rose Romero)说,受害者多是55岁左右、关心油价,担心退休金不够花的人。

The average victim is 'the 55-year-old watching the news ticker and worried if his retirement fund is going to be enough,' says Rose Romero, director of operations for the SEC's Fort Worth, Texas, office.

监管机构常常可能难以判断欺诈与风险投资失利的区别。得克萨斯州证券专员克劳福德(Denise Voigt Crawford)说,关键是要证明推销人员承诺的资金使用与实际用途不同。

It can often be difficult for regulators to determine what constitutes fraud as opposed to a risky investment gone bad. The key is to prove a departure between what the promoters promised to do with the money raised versus what they actually did, says Denise Voigt Crawford, the Texas securities commissioner.

在有些欺诈案中,推销方根本没钻井;而有些情况下,这些推销者把过多的钱投在销售佣金和其他与生产无关的内部开销上。还有的完全是“庞氏骗局”, 在这种骗局要么被有关部门查处、要么自己灭亡之前,早期投资者收到的高回报都来自于从新投资者那里筹集到的资金。

In some fraud cases, the promoters never drill at all; in others, they devote a disproportionate amount to sales commissions and other in-house expenses not related to production. Still others are mere Ponzi schemes in which early investors are paid high returns with money raised through new investors until the pyramid is either discovered by authorities or collapses on its own.

监管机构表示,一个共同点就是推销者拿走了巨额利润,而投资者的投资收益却很少或是根本没有。

The common element, regulators say, is that promoters walk away with hefty profits while investors get little or no return on their money.

6 月份,SEC关闭了堪萨斯州维契托的Consolidated Management Group LLC,并且对公司9名管理人员提起了民事诉讼,称他们涉嫌参与一桩庞大的油气欺诈案,从,1,300多名投资者手里诈取了1.56亿美元。SEC表示,这起案件涉及一个由22家合资企业组成的网络,其中一家宣称可以利用钻井平台短缺的形势,把旧钻井平台整修一下租赁出去。36岁的丹佛地图绘制员丹?贾布隆卡(Dan Jablonka)说,对我来说,这听起来很容易。他在这家公司投资将近10万美元。

In June, the SEC shut down Consolidated Management Group LLC of Wichita, Kan., and filed a civil lawsuit against nine of its officers for what it described as 'a massive oil and gas fraud' involving $156 million taken from more than 1,300 investors. The operation involved a web of 22 joint ventures, including one that claimed to take advantage of the shortage of drilling rigs by refurbishing old rigs and leasing them out, according to the SEC. 'That, to me, sounded like a no-brainer,' says Dan Jablonka, a 36-year-old Denver mapmaker who invested close to $100,000 with the company.

在SEC还原的电话会议记录中,销售人员向潜在投资者承诺每年最高可达40%的回报,还可以在即将进行的公开发售中获得股份。而实际上根据SEC的文件,这家公司及其关联公司只给了投资者 700万美元的回报,而9名管理人员的工资和佣金却有1,800万美元。贾布隆卡收回的投资将近有7万美元。作为与SEC和解协议的一部分,这9名管理人员同意接受强制令,冻结资产并最终分发给投资者,不过他们不承认有任何违法行为。记者未能联系到相关官员置评。

The SEC recovered transcripts of conference calls in which salesmen promised prospective investors annual returns of up to 40%, plus a stake in an upcoming public offering. In fact, Consolidated and its affiliates returned only $7 million to investors while paying the nine officers $18 million in salary and commissions, SEC documents allege. Mr. Jablonka recovered almost $70,000 of his investment. As part of a settlement with the SEC, the nine officers agreed to an injunction while their assets were frozen and ultimately distributed to investors, though they did not admit to any wrongdoing. The officers could not be reached for comment.

欺诈案调查人员都知道诈骗高手会利用媒体报导的重大消息进行诈骗。克劳福德说,正是这点导致了石油钻井案件的激增,也似乎是替代能源相关案件越来越多的原因。

It's a truism among fraud investigators that scam artists follow the headlines. That is what led to the surge in oil-drilling cases and seems to be behind a growing number of complaints regarding alternative-energy plays, Ms. Crawford says.

油气欺诈案的受害者往往要很长时间后才会站出来揭露骗局。原因之一是,他们可能要过上数年时间才会意识到自己被骗了。此外,他们也不愿承认自己那么容易上当受骗。不过专家指出,推销者使用的光鲜的宣传册、震撼性的图片报告和专业化的募股说明书的确很让人动心。

The victims of oil-and-gas fraud are often slow to come forward. For one, it can take several years before they realize they've been had. They're also sheepish about their own gullibility. However, experts note that the glossy brochures, seismic imaging reports and professionally drafted prospectuses that promoters use are persuasive.

Brad Reagan

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090119/fea081210.asp

2009年1月15日星期四

中国推出汽车及钢铁业振兴规划

中国国务院推出汽车和钢铁产业调整振兴规划,希望在金融危机下促进中国经济发展。

星期三(1月14日)的国务院常务会议审议并原则通过了一整套的汽车和钢铁产业调整规划。

从2009年1月20日至12月31日,1.6升及以下排量乘用车的车辆购置税将降至原来的一半。

和此前的限制购买小排量汽车的政策相比,此举无疑更有助于降低温室气体排放的努力。

另外,从2009年3月1日至12月31日,中国政府准备投入50亿元,对农民报废三轮汽车和低速货车换购轻型载货车以及购买1.3升以下排量的微型客车,给予一次性财政补贴。

国务院常务会议提出,振兴汽车产业要从多方面入手,在培育汽车消费市场的同时推进汽车产业重组,发展自主品牌。

中国政府还承诺要从中央财政拨款支持中国汽车企业进行技术创新、改造以及开发节能和新能源汽车。

钢铁产业

在振兴钢铁产业方面,中国希望发展具有“具有国际竞争力的大型和特大型钢铁集团”。

另外,振兴方案还提出要在扩大国内钢材消费的同时严格淘汰落后的钢铁项目,加快技术改造和引进新技术。

国务院会议提出,汽车和钢铁产业是国民经济重要支柱产业,这两个产业的振兴对促进相关产业和国民经济平稳较快发展具有重要意义。

中国媒体透露,中国国家统计局可能将在下星期公布2008年的中国经济数据,有专家估计中国2008年国内生产总值增幅可能为9.3%。

根据中国最初公布的2007年经济数据,中国经济在当年已经超过德国,成为世界第三大经济体。

不过目前的全球金融危机给依赖出口的中国经济造成巨大压力。

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7820000/newsid_7829900/7829932.stm

Detroit auto show reveals electric future

Hank Green

DETROIT-- The North American International Auto Show held this week was positively electric in an economically dark world in which buyers shun gas guzzlers and manufacturers struggle to go green as well as convince consumers to fork over tight funds. There was less talk of biofuels and almost no talk of hydrogen than in previous years, with the emphasis instead on quick environmental fixes that can be implemented within five years—if not immediately.

There were three real classes of environmental innovation on display here: traditional hybrids, extended-range electric vehicles, and pure electric vehicles. Every step represents another leap away from the internal combustion engine, a goal that wasn't even a goal a mere three years ago.

Hybrid vehicles—each representing a significant advance in the technology—made a strong showing, , including the all-new Prius, the all-sleek Honda Insight, and the Ford Focus Hybrid. All of the hybrids rolled out here are expected to be available to consumers by the end of the year.

Ford says that its Fusion brings a higher mileage-per-gallon to a larger more luxurious car, getting at least five more miles per gallon of gas in the city than its Toyota rival, the Camry Hybrid. Toyota's new Prius offers updated styling, the highest mileage of any car on the road, and a slightly larger interior and faster engine than its predecessor.

The Honda Insight may have been the most important hybrid at the show, not because it's the most efficient car on the road (with MPG expected to be in the mid-40s) but because it's so inexpensive. With a base price of around $20,000, it costs around $4,000 less than the Prius, opening the hybrid market to a whole new segment of buyers.

Next we have the extended-range electric vehicle (E-REV). The public doesn't really know what to think about E-REVs, mostly because only two or three people have ever driven one. These new cars run entirely on electric power, but they contain a small gasoline generator to recharge the batteries when they run low. The idea is that you get all of the benefits of an electric car for the first 40 miles or so (which is longer than the average commute of Americans) but you don't have to worry about running out of power and being stuck without a way to recharge.

The idea of an E-REV may be fantastic, but it's apparently tricky to build. Nonetheless, several automakers are working on E-REV prototypes, and Chevy's E-REV (the Chevrolet Volt) is set to be on the road in 2011.

General Motors, it seems, looking to double-down on the E-REV idea, released a concept for a Cadillac E-REV coupe dubbed the Converj. The stated intent of the Converj is to show that its E-REV system is more about innovation than compromise. I imagine GM is also encouraged by the idea of selling these cars for a profit, since they're banking on losing money on the Volt for at least a few years.

Chrysler has also jumped on the E-REV bandwagon, showcasing a large concept sedan, the 200C. Of course, the company also admitted it may build the 200C with a regular internal combustion engine. Honestly, Chrysler's display smacked a bit of green-washing, sometimes literally, with two different Jeeps sporting green "extended-range electric vehicle" paint jobs, but absolutely no stats on how the vehicles would be powered and whether Chrysler had done any of the work to figure out if it could make such a large car into an E-REV.

We've seen plenty of E-REV and hybrid cars at recent auto shows, but fully electric ones have been noticeably absent. Major manufacturers have been slow to adopt pure EV technology for a variety of reasons. Among them: batteries are heavy, most cities (where EVs would be most useful) don't have charging ports, and carmakers have had a hard time keeping costs down while delivering a manageable sized vehicle.

But this year shows just how jittery today's auto industry may be. Ford announced an ambitious EV plan, saying that it would have a commercial electric van on the road in target markets by 2010 and an electric car (based on the Fusion platform with a 100 -mile range for urban drivers) in 2011. Ford also said it's in talks with several major municipalities (no word on which ones) about developing re-charge stations.

While GM is putting most of its eggs in the Volt basket, I asked Denise Gray, GM's chief of battery development, whether the idea of totally electric cars was an insane one. "It's neither crazy nor insane," she said. "In fact, I think its right round the corner." And GM is poised to take advantage. The company announced at the show that it plans build its own electric vehicle battery manufacturing plant, and the world's largest automotive battery testing facility. GM seems to finally see a future in electric cars.

Toyota apparently agrees. It was the only company at the show that had more than plans to show. While its FT-EV is only a concept right now (largely based on Toyota's iQ microcar), Toyota has promised that the FT-EV, or a car like it, will be for sale in America by 2012.

The bottom line: This is the first auto show I've attended where it seems that manufacturers and car enthusiasts agree that the future of automobiles is electric.

http://www.sciam.com/blog/60-second-science/post.cfm?id=detroit-auto-show-reveals-electric-2009-01-14

2009年1月14日星期三

中国汽车业需要政府出手帮助

近年来汽车保有量增长被视为是中国经济崛起的有力证明,但目前这一增速正在放缓,随之而去的还有汽车生产商们的好日子。

中国政府目前的任务是提振中国汽车市场,不过目前中国还无需采取美国式的救助计划。中国目前是全球第二大汽车市场。

除了寄希望于政府财政刺激计划将给商业汽车销售带来支撑之外,汽车业同时也在游说政府停止征收占车价10%的车辆购置税。

即使这样可能也无法阻止汽车销量增长下滑的趋势。目前这一趋势已经令人勘忧了。2008年6.7%的汽车销量增长似乎不算太差,但却创下中国汽车业十年来的最低增速。过去5个月中,汽车销量有4个月都出现了下降。12月份汽车销量较上年同期下滑11.6%。

汽车市场不会迅速回暖。消费者信心下降以及地产和股票价值缩水降低了潜在买车者的购买意愿。贷款利率下调在中国也起不到太大作用,因为只有不到10%的购车交易是通过贷款方式进行的。

大和总研(Daiwa Institute of Research)估计,如果不下调车辆购置税,那么今年汽车销量可能不会出现增长。

对于越来越依赖中国市场的跨国公司而言,这不是个好消息。作为中国汽车市场的领头羊,大众汽车(Volkswagen)年度销售额中有16%来自中国,中国成为该公司在全球的第二大市场。

但至少大众汽车在中国的汽车销量还在增长,而饱受重创的通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)在华合资企业2008年的乘用车销量已经出现了下滑。

除非中国政府采取行动,否则将有更多汽车生产商步通用汽车的后尘。大和总研表示,即使是为了达到接近2008年那样的汽车销量增速,中国政府仍需要推出针对小排量汽车的购置税减免举措。中国汽车市场中超过60%的车辆排量都在1.6升以下。

无论中国政府的决定是什么,都应迅速行动。目前的状况是即使是那些有购买意愿的消费者都推迟了购买计划,希望等待税收政策更明朗、车价进一步下降之后再出手。

Andrew Peaple

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090114/hrd115512.asp

2009年1月13日星期二

比亚迪欲借电动轿车实现突破

Technology Levels Playing Field For Electric Cars

现在恐怕不是进入汽车业的好时候,尤其是对发展中国家名不见经传的小公司就更是如此。至少在半个世纪以来,没有哪家初创公司能够发展成为大型汽车制造商。

It would seem like a lousy time to get into the car business, especially if you're a little-known company in the developing world. No start-up has grown into a major auto maker in at least half a century.

但中国电池和汽车制造商比亚迪股份(BYD Co.)的创始人、主席王传福认为他存在这样的机会。

Wang Chuanfu, the founder and chairman of BYD Co., a Chinese battery and car maker, thinks he's got a shot.

上个月,比亚迪股份开始在中国市场销售充电式油电混合动力车,比美国和日本的类似尝试领先至少一年。这款名为F3DM的轿车可以使用家庭插座充电,同时还拥有行驶过程中能给电池充电的小排量汽油引擎。这是比亚迪计划向全球推出的一系列电动轿车的第一款,在中国之后,它计划最早在2010年在欧美市场推出。

Last month, BYD began selling a plug-in electric hybrid car in China, at least a year ahead of similar efforts in the U.S. and Japan. The car, called the F3DM, plugs into a home outlet and comes with a small gasoline engine that can recharge the battery on the go. It is the first of an array of electrified cars BYD plans to introduce around the world, starting in China and then in the U.S. and Europe as early as 2010.

预计王传福周一将在底特律的北美国际汽车展上向美国消费者介绍F3DM。该车展周六向公众开放。他的这一冒险之举吸引了业内资深人士和投资者的注意,其中包括沃伦?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)。

On Monday, Mr. Wang is expected to pitch the F3DM to U.S. consumers, during a news conference at Detroit's North American International Auto Show, which opens to the public Saturday. His venture has already attracted the attention of industry veterans and investors, including Warren Buffett.

王传福的策略是,利用电动轿车的低门槛进入市场。没有多少产品像开发和生产燃油汽车那么复杂,这类汽车使用成千上万的精密机械部件组装而成。但电动轿车只采用基本的马达和变速箱,零部件相对较少。除了完善电池本身之外,电动轿车的制造更容易,成本也更低,从而可以创造公平的竞争环境。

Mr. Wang's strategy: capitalizing on the electric car's low barriers to entry. Few products are as complex to develop and produce as gasoline-powered automobiles, which are assembled with thousands of precisely engineered parts. But electric cars use only basic motors and gearboxes, and have relatively few parts. Aside from perfecting the battery itself, they're far easier and cheaper to build -- and that makes for a level playing field.

王传福在位于深圳郊区的比亚迪总部接受采访时称,像我们这样的后来者想同通用汽车(GM)等有着100多年汽油发动机制造经验的老牌汽车厂家竞争几乎没有获胜的希望。凭借电动轿车,我们可以处在同一起跑线上。

'It's almost hopeless for a latecomer like us to compete with GM and other established auto makers with a century of experience in gasoline engines,' said Mr. Wang in an interview, pacing and juggling calls in BYD's headquarters on the outskirts of Shenzhen. 'With electric vehicles, we're all at the same starting line.'

电动轿车要想大行其道,前方的道路并不平坦。高昂的汽油价格开始下降,这可能会降低公众对替代燃料汽车的接受程度。此外,要说服消费者尝试未经考验的技术,比亚迪还需要打消西方不信任中国制造的态度。电动车的安全性也受到质疑,被普遍视为电动轿车商业化关键部件的锂离子电池有时可能出现过热甚至起火的现象。

It's still a bumpy road to a full-blown era of battery cars. Punishingly high gasoline prices have come down, potentially damping the public's willingness to embrace alternative-fuel vehicles. In addition to convincing consumers to try untested technology, BYD has to fight mistrust in the West of Chinese-produced goods. Safety has also come into question, as some of the lithium-ion batteries -- widely believed to be the key to making viable electric cars -- have shown a tendency to overheat and sometimes catch fire.

王传福说,比亚迪的电池采用了新技术,因此比其它型号的锂离子电池更加安全。他还说,丰富的廉价劳动力能够降低成本,这是打动消费者的另一个因素。在中国,F3DM的定价是人民币15万元(约合22,000美元),比亚迪预计在美国的售价将与此接近。而雪佛兰(Chevrolet) 的混合动力车Volt预计2010年面市时的价格至少为4万美元。

Mr. Wang says BYD's batteries use a new technology that makes them safer than other lithium-ion models. He also says cheap abundant labor helps keeps his costs down, another factor that could sway consumers. In China, the F3DM is priced at 150,000 yuan, or $22,000, and BYD expects it sell for a similar amount in the U.S. The Chevrolet Volt, by contrast, may be priced at $40,000 or more when it hits the market in late 2010.

比亚迪的另一个潜在优势是:10多年专业生产电池的经验。王传福 1995年向表哥借款人民币250万元成立了这家公司,生产手机电池。如今,比亚迪已成为全球第二大锂离子电池生产商。该公司去年的收入为212亿元(31亿美元),共有13万名员工。去年9月,艾奥瓦州能源生产商MidAmerican Energy Holdings投资2.3亿美元,收购了比亚迪10%的股份。巴菲特是MidAmerican的最大股东。

Another potential BYD edge: more than a decade of experience specializing in making batteries. Mr. Wang started the company in 1995, borrowing $300,000 from a cousin, and making batteries for cellphones. Today, BYD is the world's second-biggest producer of lithium-ion batteries. The company made 21.2 billion yuan ($3.1 billion) in revenue last year and has a work force of 130,000. Last September, MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., an Iowa-based energy producer, invested $230 million in BYD for a 10% stake. Mr. Buffett is majority owner of MidAmerican.

MidAmerican董事长苏德伟(David Sokol)说,比亚迪吸引投资者的原因之一是其1万名工程技术人员,许多都是刚刚毕业的大学生和技校生。王传福在中国创造了物美价廉的研发力量。

BYD caught the investors' attention in part because of its army of 10,000 technicians and engineers, many fresh out of college and technical schools, says David Sokol, chairman of MidAmerican. 'Mr. Wang has built high-quality but low-cost research and development capabilities in China,' says Mr. Sokol.

作为比亚迪的第一款电动轿车,F3DM更像是纯粹的电动轿车,而不像目前已经上市的油电混合动力车。充满电后,它可以完全靠电池行驶50至60英里。而丰田汽车(Toyota Motor)的普锐斯基本属于汽油燃料轿车,电动引擎可以在低速时推动轿车,在加速时给汽油引擎助力。F3DM在设计上同通用雪佛兰的Volt类似,但其推出时间比Volt早两年,比定于2009年末推出的丰田充电式混合动力车早一年。

The first of BYD's electric cars, the F3DM, is more of a purely electric car than the gasoline-electric hybrids on the road today. It can go about 50 to 60 miles exclusively on electricity when fully charged. By contrast, Toyota Motor Corp.'s Prius is essentially a gasoline-fueled car with an electric engine that propels the car at low speeds and assists the gasoline engine when accelerating. The F3DM is similar in design to General Motors Corp.'s Chevy Volt. But it is being launched two years earlier than the Volt and one year ahead of Toyota's plug-in hybrid, which is due out for late 2009.

其它进入这一领域的非传统竞争者包括挪威的Think Global、英国的Lightning Car Co.和加州的Tesla Motors及Fisker Automotive。它们也都计划很快推出用锂离子电池驱动的轿车,或是已经小批量接受订单。新兴竞争对手的增加可能给底特律汽车厂家构成威胁,三大厂家一直寄希望于混合动力车和电动轿车能够帮助它们扭转局面。

Other nontraditional players jumping into the fold include Think Global in Norway, Lightning Car Co. in the U.K. and Tesla Motors and Fisker Automotive, both in California. They all plan rollouts soon, or are already taking orders in small numbers, for electric cars powered by lithium-ion batteries. The growing field of upstart competitors could pose a threat to Detroit, where the Big Three are betting that hybrids and battery cars can help fuel their turnaround.

在中国,比亚迪是增长最快的独立汽车厂家之一。尽管中国轿车需求放缓,但对其传统小型车F3和F0的需求仍在增长,使其缩小了同中国两大独立汽车品牌奇瑞汽车(Chery Automobile)和吉利控股(Geely Holding Group)之间的差距。2008年四季度,F3是中国最畅销的车型之一。德国咨询公司Roland Burger高级研究员沃尔夫冈?伯恩哈特(Wolfgang Bernhart)说,比亚迪可能是最有希望成为打入西方汽车市场第一人的中国汽车制造商。比亚迪计划在2009年底之前推出全电动轿车比亚迪e6,这款轿车一次充满电后能够行驶180英里。这将是有一个里程碑式的推进。

In China, BYD is already one of the fastest-growing independent auto makers. Demand for its traditional small cars, the F3 and the F0, is growing despite weakening car sales in China, allowing it to close in on Chery Automobile Co. and Geely Holding Group, the two biggest independent Chinese auto brands. The F3 was one of China's best-selling models during the last quarter of 2008. 'BYD is probably the closest . . . to becoming the first Chinese auto maker to crack the Western auto markets,' says Wolfgang Bernhart, a senior researcher for the German consulting firm Roland Burger. By late 2009, BYD plans to mark another milestone by launching in China the BYD e6, an all-electric car capable of going 180 miles on a single full charge of its battery.

电动车的概念已经有一百多年的历史了。但目前电动车仍未成为主流,主要原因是电池既笨重又昂贵。直到最近才可以买到能在小空间里(比如在汽车后座下面)存储足够能量、快速充电、全天候工作而不会过热或出现故障的电池。

The concept of an electric vehicle has been around for more than a century. But so far it has failed to become mainstream in large part because the batteries have been too heavy, bulky and costly. Until recently, no commercially available battery could store enough energy in a small space, such as under the car's back seat, recharge quickly and operate in all weather without overheating or failing.

在这方面,多用于笔记本电脑和手机的锂电池是最有希望的。不过,安全问题导致这类电池的生产很缓慢。通用和丰田都表示,它们在推出电动车上花费更多的时间,以确保电池的安全性。

Lithium-ion batteries, like the ones used in laptop computers and cellphones, hold the most promise. But the safety issues have slowed production. Both GM and Toyota say they are taking more time to roll out their electric cars to make sure their batteries are safe.

王传福说,比亚迪的锂电池采用的是化学特性稳定的磷酸铁技术,因此安全性自然就好。他说,电池不会过热到起火的温度。

Mr. Wang says BYD's lithium-ion battery uses an iron-phosphate technology that is chemically stable and thus 'inherently safe.' He says it doesn't overheat to the point where it can catch fire.

这项技术与A123 Systems开发出来的一项技术在设计上类似。这家美国电池创业企业由一群来自麻省理工学院的科学家牵头。通用汽车正着手利用该技术为Volt提供动力。熟悉A123的人士表示,该公司计划拆开比亚迪的电池,看看比亚迪是否有侵权的行为。A123公司管理人士拒绝置评。

The technology is similar in design to that developed by A123 Systems, a U.S. start-up battery maker led by a group of scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. GM is using their technology to power the Volt. Individuals close to A123 say the company plans to take apart BYD's battery cell to see if BYD has infringed on any of its technology. Officials at A123 declined to comment.

比亚迪表示,它用了10多年的时间开发出自己的磷酸铁锂电池技术,没有侵犯其他公司的知识产权。比亚迪高级工程师罗红斌说,外国人有时候认为每个中国企业都剽窃技术和设计,但我们是花了很多年研究电动车的。

The Chinese company says it has spent more than 10 years developing its own iron-phosphate-based lithium-ion technology without infringing on others' intellectual property. 'Sometimes foreigners think every Chinese company is stealing technology and design,' says Luo Hongbin, a senior BYD engineer. But, he says, 'we have been researching electric vehicles for so many years.'

在早期测试中,评论人士说比亚迪电动车仍有一些问题。比如,F3DM的汽油发动机会发出嘎嘎声,发动起来的时候噪音可能很大。方向盘在转弯的时候也常常发紧。比亚迪销售和市场营销负责人李竺杭说,公司正努力在向新的市场推出比亚迪电动车前解决这些问题。他说,我们有很多时间能把车做得尽善尽美。

In early testing, reviewers said the car still has some kinks. The gasoline engine in the F3DM, for instance, rattles and can be noisy when it kicks in. The steering wheel also tends to get stiff when making a turn. Henry Li, a senior BYD executive in charge of overseas sales and marketing, says the company is working to resolve these issues before the car hits new markets: 'We have plenty of time to make them perfect.'

现年42岁的王传福把制造电动车比作和生产电子表一样简单。他说,谁都能设计、生产电子表,但新手基本不可能达到瑞士表那样的精准度。

Mr. Wang, the 42-year-old Chinese entrepreneur, compares the simplicity of building electric cars to the simplicity of a digital watch. 'Anyone can design and produce digital watches, but it's virtually impossible for a newcomer to match the precision of a Swiss wristwatch,' Mr. Wang says.

的确,比亚迪全电动车e6只有两个发动机(每个由45个部件组成,一个用于驱动前轴,一个驱动后轴)和两个与之配套的变速箱(每个有60个部件)。这就意味着,除去其他一些小部件,整个系统有210个主要部件。与之相比,比亚迪汽油车F6共有1,400个主要部件:V6发动机就包括840个部件,传动系统有 560个部件。

Indeed, BYD's all-electric e6, has just two motors (45 parts each), one powering the front axle and the other the rear, and two gearboxes (60 parts each) to go with each of the motors. That means the whole system has 210 primary parts, excluding nuts and bolts. In comparison, BYD's F6, a gasoline-fueled vehicle, has a total of 1,400 powertrain parts: a V6 engine composed of 840 parts and a transmission with 560 parts.

在深圳的比亚迪工厂,电动车的发动机和电池的生产自动化程度很低,明显给人一种技术含量较低的感觉。成排的工人手工组装发动机和电池,其中大部分是二十岁左右、身穿蓝色制服的女工。

At BYD's plant in Shenzhen, electric motors and batteries are produced with little automation, creating a decidedly low-tech feeling to the place. Rows of workers, mostly women in their late teens and early 20s dressed in blue uniforms, assemble them largely by hand.

王传福对电池的痴迷可以追溯到上世纪80年代中期,当时他在大学学习冶金物理和化学。在获得硕士学位后,他在北京有色金属研究总院研究部门找到一份工作。他说那是一份舒 的工作,但是他后来感到无聊,决定自己创业,当时中国改革开放正进入如火如荼的阶段。

Mr. Wang's fascination with batteries harks back to his college days in the mid-1980s, when he studied metallurgical physics and chemistry. After receiving a master's degree, he found a research position at the General Research Institute of Nonferrous Metals in Beijing. He says it was a cushy job, but he grew bored and decided to go out on his own just as China's experiment with capitalism was going into full swing.

王传福与另外二十几个工程师一起创立了比亚迪。在短短几年之间,公司就开始向摩托罗拉(Motorola Inc.)、诺基亚(Nokia Corp.)和三星电子(Samsung Electronics Co.)等公司销售电池。王传福说,业务每年都在翻番。2002年比亚迪在香港上市。

Mr. Wang set up BYD with two dozen engineers. Within a few years, the company was selling batteries to companies like Motorola Inc., Nokia Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. The business doubled each year, Mr. Wang says. BYD went public on the Hong Kong stock exchange in 2002.

吸引王传福注意力的一个行业是汽车业,尽管当时他还不会开车。(那以后他开始学开车,现在上下班的座驾是雷克萨斯(Lexus)。)2003年初,王传福决定收购西安一家名叫秦川汽车的小型汽车厂,不过投资者表示强烈反对。

One industry that grabbed Mr. Wang's attention was cars, even though he didn't know how to drive at the time. (He has since learned and takes his Lexus to work.) In early 2003, Mr. Wang decided to acquire a small auto maker named Qinchuan Motors in Xian, but investors voiced strong opposition.

王传福在一次电话会议上透露说,1998年他指示手下20名高级工程师悄悄地改进比亚迪的手机电池技术,以便有一天能用于汽车。他们开发出一款全电动汽车,这款名为Flyer的笨重车型只比高尔夫球车先进一点儿。

On a conference call, Mr. Wang disclosed that in 1998 he had instructed 20 of his top engineers to quietly scale up BYD's cellphone-battery technology so that it could be used to power cars some day. They developed an all-electric car, a clunky vehicle called the Flyer that was just a step above a golf cart.

受此鼓舞,投资者赞成比亚迪先设计一款传统汽油车的计划,这样公司可以学会汽车设计和制造的基础过程。2005年中期,比亚迪推出了第一款名为F3的小型轿车。外国汽车业人士指责F3是丰田卡罗拉的翻版。王传福说,他非常注意不侵犯其他公司的知识产权。他说,通过综合丰田等公司在中国的好点子,比亚迪创很快造出了自己的汽车。他说,他认为没有比把汽车业的领头羊作为“基准”来学习行业诀窍更好的方法了。

Encouraged, investors blessed plans for BYD to first design a traditional gasoline car so the company could learn the basics of design and manufacturing. In mid-2005, BYD launched its first car, a small sedan called the F3. Foreign industry observers accused the F3 of being a copy of the Toyota Corolla. Mr. Wang says he was careful not to infringe on another company's intellectual property. 'By synthesizing good ideas in China from Toyota and others, BYD created its own cars quickly,' he says. He says he believed there was no better way to learn the ropes of the auto industry than 'benchmarking' the industry's best.

丰田发言人说,不打算就F3的问题起诉比亚迪。丰田驻北京发言人Hitoshi Yokoyama说,通常来讲,如果我们能确定有明显的侵权行为,我们都会准备采取法律行动。

A Toyota spokesman said the Japanese company doesn't intend to take BYD to court over the F3. 'In general, we're always prepared to take legal action if we can determine there is a clear case of infringement,' says company spokesman Hitoshi Yokoyama in Beijing.

比亚迪一直在不断改进自己的电动车。2008年4月,王传福在北京车展上展示了一款e6的雏形,那是一个令他心潮澎湃的时刻。他在安徽省的一个贫困家庭长大,不到15岁的时候,靠种水稻为生的父母就双双因病去世了。

Behind the scenes, BYD kept fine-tuning its electric cars. In April 2008, when Mr. Wang unveiled an e6 prototype at the Beijing auto show, it was an emotional moment for the executive, who grew up poor in Anhui Province and lost both of his rice-farmer parents to illness by the time he was 15.

王传福站在用来庆祝的一片烟花和五彩纸屑中,宣布e6标志着汽车业一个新时代的到来。他说,我们坚信能够在电动车技术上超越通用、丰田等全球性汽车商。

Standing amid firecrackers and confetti, Mr. Wang declared the e6 marked the arrival of a new era in automobiles: 'We have every confidence to surpass GM and Toyota and other global auto makers in electric-vehicle technology.'

Norihiko Shirouzu

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090112/ffe162151.asp

2009年1月12日星期一

Chrysler Plans Electric Car Push in 2010

By ALEX P. KELLOGG and NEAL E. BOUDETTE

DETROIT -- In a bid to make a splash at the Detroit auto show, Chrysler LLC said it expects to start producing an electric car in 2010.

The company, however, revealed few details that normally come with such announcements, such as what type of vehicle it will make – or its name.

"We're not allowed to say," said Todd Goyer, a company spokesman.

In a statement released ahead of the Detroit show, the auto maker said it will unveil a new concept for a possible future electric vehicle – a battery-powered version of its Jeep Patriot, a compact sports-utility vehicle. It will also display three electric-vehicle concepts it first shown in public in September. Those included electric versions of its Chrysler Town & Country minivan and Jeep Wrangler, and the Dodge Circuit, an two-seat sports car.

Chrysler aims to have four electric vehicles in the market by 2013, the company's statement said. A few weeks ago, Chrysler executives told dealers it plans to sell 500,000 electric vehicles by 2013.

Chrysler needs a dose of good news right now. Sales plunged last year, falling 53% in December alone. The company was close to running out of money before it got $4 billion in loans from the federal government.

The company plans to launch a new Jeep Grand Cherokee in late 2009 or 2010, but has few other new models set to follow. Chrysler slowed product development to conserve cash, people familiar with the matter said.

That stands in contrast to recent years, when it tried to drive sales by launching a steady stream of new vehicles.

Chrysler has formed a special development group, called ENVI, to work with partners to produce electric vehicles. It assembled a working prototype of the Dodge Circuit sports car by using major components produced by outsiders, such as an underbody made by Lotus and batteries from A123 Systems Inc. The Circuit runs on battery power alone and is supposed to run for up to 200 miles before needing a recharge.

Chrysler's electric vehicles "will allow consumers to move away from their reliance on fuel stations and traditional maintenance," Lou Rhodes, president of ENVI, said in a statement, "and instead enjoy a new, more socially responsible level of performance."

Write to Alex P. Kellogg at alex.kellogg@wsj.com and Neal E. Boudette at neal.boudette@wsj.com

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123164962942571409.html

2009年1月11日星期日

上汽放弃双龙 牵动中韩关系

由上海汽车股份有限公司控股的韩国第五大汽车企业双龙汽车星期五(1月9日)向首尔地方法院申请破产保护。

此举意味着持股51.3%的上汽放弃了自己作为双龙最大股东的权利和义务,包括市值800亿韩元的股份和6000亿韩元的贷款债务。(一万韩元约合五十元人民币)

上汽2004年10月收购了双龙48.9%的股权,后来两度斥资增持股份,成为最大股东。

双龙汽车方面宣称,企申请破产保护是因为全球经济萧条造成销售锐减、出口下降,加上融资渠道不畅,使得双龙汽车陷入了"严重的流动性危机。"

双龙的危机去年底已经充分显露,当时中韩双方互相要求对方注入资金,随后双龙也通过各种途径,希望争取政府和银行的支持,但未能成功。

去年底有消息说,上汽集团方面提出,可以为双龙公司提供2亿美元(约2570亿韩元)的救济性资金援助。

但条件是双龙公司需从生产一线裁员2000人,这几乎占到该公司员工总数的三分之一。

不过,双龙汽车工会拒绝裁员和企业重组的强硬立场令上汽方面感到头痛,并曾威胁可能撤离韩国。

吸取技术为目的?

就上汽在收购四年之后放弃双龙,韩国媒体和民间有舆论认为,上汽的目的就是吸收双龙的技术之后抛弃双龙。

去年七月,韩国检察部门已经因为怀疑双龙把混合动力汽车的核心技术泄露给了上汽而搜查了双龙汽车总部,但后来并没有定论。

不过也有韩国评论认为,因为把SUV(多功能运动型车)作为主打车型,双龙的失败在去年国际油价高企,环保车型走红的情况下早已是定局。

中国民众的网上言论更觉得双龙工会的强硬立场不可理解,工会拒绝裁员的结果只能是破产。

据韩国媒体报道,双龙汽车还将与工会协商,实施自愿退休、轮班上岗和减薪等措施,以缩减开支。

作为中国第一个汽车企业海外并购案,这次上汽在双龙的失败无疑会给雄心勃勃的中国汽车业敲响警钟。

而双龙事件能否止于业界内部,不对中韩关系造成影响,或者引发中韩各自国内的民族主义情绪还有待观察。

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7820000/newsid_7822500/7822541.stm

2009年1月10日星期六

GMAC Chairman Merkin Resigns

By KATHY SHWIFF

GMAC LLC Chairman J. Ezra Merkin said that he is resigning, effective Friday, after the auto lender converted to a bank holding company to become eligible for government funds through the Treasury Department's Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Conditions of the Treasury's $6 billion bailout of GMAC include that the company appoint an independent chairman and a reconstituted board.

During the transition to a new board, which must be completed by March 24, Mr. Merkin will be replaced as chairman by Lenard Tessler, managing director and co-head of private equity at Cerberus Capital Management LLC, and the vacant seat will be filled by Jeffrey L. Lomasky, Cerberus' chief financial officer.

GMAC's new seven-member board will consist of its chief executive, one representative from FIM Holdings LLC, two directors appointed by a trust to be formed by the Treasury and three independent directors elected by those directors. In addition, General Motors Corp. and FIM Holdings each are entitled to have one nonvoting observer on the board, as long as they hold common interests of GMAC.

Mr. Merkin, a nominee of Cerberus, runs Gabriel Capital Corp. funds, which were hard hit by the alleged Bernard Madoff Ponzi scheme.

GMAC is the financing arm of GM, which sold 51% of GMAC to Cerberus in 2006.

Write to Kathy Shwiff at kathy.shwiff@dowjones.com

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123153816405769337.html

2009年1月8日星期四

钢铁厂商谨慎酝酿涨价计划

Steelmakers Move Cautiously To Raise Prices

美国、中国等国的钢铁生产商正在尝试小幅涨价,并重新启动一些几个月前因为需求疲软而关闭的工厂;这可能成为某些钢铁价格已经触底的早期迹象。

In an early sign that some steel prices may have bottomed out, steelmakers in the U.S., China and some other countries are attempting limited price increases and reopening a handful of mills that were closed because of weak demand a few months ago.

还不清楚上涨后的价格能否维持下去。不过即使钢材销售商宣布涨价或征收特别附加费,通常也会在客户反对或竞争对手没有效仿的情况下再把价格降下来。也不清楚涨价是因为需求增加还是存货减少。

It isn't clear whether the price increases will stick, however. Steel sellers often announce price increases or special surcharges, only to relent in the face of customer opposition or if rivals don't follow suit. Nor is it clear whether the price increases reflect more demand or lower inventories.

陷入困境的汽车生产商、承包商、家电和设备生产商已经减少了钢铁采购量。过去几个月中关闭的钢铁厂大部分仍处于停工状态,全球很多钢铁厂的开工率不到50%。美国最近公布的制造业新订单指数创六十年来最低水平。

Troubled auto makers, contractors, appliance and equipment makers have cut back on their steel purchases. The majority of mills closed over the last few months remain shuttered and many around the world are operating below 50% of their capacity. The U.S. manufacturing sector recently reported that new orders are at their lowest level in six decades.

但钢铁生产商表示谨慎乐观,认为世界部分地区的需求足够支撑价格上涨。总部位于匹兹堡的Allegheny Technologies Inc.表示,从2月份开始将把铁心硅钢的附加费上调55%,至321美元/短吨(1短吨约合0.9吨)。附加费是在基础价格之外收取的费用,通常反映原材料成本,可以每个月调整。

But steelmakers signaled cautious optimism that there is enough demand to support price increases in some parts of the world. Pittsburgh-based Allegheny Technologies Inc. said it would increase its surcharges on electrical steel by 55% beginning in February to $321 a short ton. (A short ton is about 0.9 metric ton.) Surcharges are tacked on to base prices, typically to account for raw-material costs, and can change monthly.

总部位于俄亥俄州韦斯特切斯特的AK Steel Holding Corp.表示,其2月份发货的铁心硅钢的附加费将由每短吨10美元上调至165美元。该公司没有公布基础价,因此无法计算上调幅度。

AK Steel Holding Corp., based in West Chester, Ohio, said it is raising the surcharge on February shipments of electrical steel to $165 a short ton from $10 a short ton. The percentage can't be calculated because the company doesn't reveal its base prices.

全球产量最高的钢材生产商安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)表示,将于下周二重新启用位于南卡罗莱纳州乔治敦的盘条厂。这家总部位于卢森堡的公司于去年12月5日关闭了该厂大部分业务,裁员300人,称原因是需求疲弱、产品价格低。

ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker by output, said it will reopen its wire rod mill in Georgetown, S.C., next Tuesday. The Luxembourg-based company on Dec. 5 shut down much of the mill, laying off 300 workers, citing slack demand and low prices.

中国几家钢铁厂商已经宣布将多种产品价格上调5%-25%不等。宝钢集团有限公司(Baosteel Group Corp.)和鞍山钢铁集团公司(Anshan Iron & Steel Group Co.)表示,将上调热轧卷钢价格。热轧卷钢是加工多种钢材制品的基础产品。宝钢还表示,将增加部分工厂的产量。

In China, several steel mills have announced price increases ranging from 5% to 25% for a variety of products. Baosteel Group Co. and Anshan Iron & Steel Group Corp. said that they will raise their prices for hot-rolled coil steel, a basic product that is processed into many steel applications. Baosteel also said it will increase production at some of its mills.

在土耳其,由于建筑需求开始恢复,国内生产的热轧卷钢价格本月将上调约4.5%,至每吨460美元。日本钢铁业管理人士周二表示,由于存货下降、生产商减产,预计钢铁市场将于年中前后开始复苏。

In Turkey, the price of domestically produced hot-rolled coil will rise about 4.5% this month to $460 a metric ton as demand for construction has begun to return. Japanese steel-industry executives said Tuesday they expect the steel market to start recovering around midyear as inventories decline and steelmakers reduce output.

钢铁业是全球经济的先导行业,因为钢材应用在从家电到商业建筑以及桥梁等各个领域。钢铁行业拟议中的涨价和部分钢铁厂重新开工表明,这一全球性基础工业的部分领域可能出现了回暖。

Steel is a bellwether industry for the world economy because the metal is used in everything from appliances to commercial construction to bridges. The proposed price increases and isolated plant openings indicate that parts of the global industrial base might be less anemic than they were.

钢铁分析师指出,市场仍然普遍疲软,涨价计划可能是受存货减少而非需求增强推动。据穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service Inc.)称,2009年的钢铁需求很可能保持疲软;预计下滑速度将放慢,并于今年下半年企稳。

Steel analysts, noting that the market remains generally weak, said the proposed price increases may reflect decreased inventories rather than stronger demand. 'Steel demand will likely remain weak in 2009,' according to Moody's Investors Service. 'We expect that the rate of downward movement will slow and that a level of stabilization should occur in the second half.'

美国的钢铁厂商指望当选总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)提出的经济刺激方案能够刺激基础设施领域的钢材消耗,只是这种市场需求渗透到钢铁行业可能需要一年的时间。

U.S.-based steelmakers are banking on the proposed stimulus plan by the administration of President-elect Barack Obama to spur consumption for infrastructure projects, although that might not filter down to steelmakers for a year.

分析师称,某些欧洲国家钢铁业的复苏希望更加遥远。德国、乌克兰和波兰的钢铁厂还在减产裁员,以将产量降至与市场需求一致的水平。

Certain European countries are further from potential recovery, analysts said. German, Ukraine and Polish mills are still scaling back production and laying off workers in an effort to bring production in line with demand.

Robert Guy Matthews

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090107/ffe110750.asp

2009年1月7日星期三

巴以冲突及战略石油储备需求增添1月份油价变数

过去10年间,美国1月份原油期货均价有8年都高于上年12月份水平。这并不意味着油价肯定会在1月份上涨,但是地缘政治担忧、产油国及消费国的政策举措使得原油价格数周来首次向每桶50美元水平反弹。

结束年底休假后的交易员们纷纷返场,而俄罗斯再次在天然气出口问题上玩起了政治牌,加沙地区冲突已经爆发,这给在喜忧参半的基本面因素影响下的市场蒙上了一层紧张空气。

在世界最大的石油消费国美国,布什(Bush)政府在其任期内的最后几天提议到2010年1月底之前,将战略石油储备(Strategic Petroleum Reserve)规模增至满负荷水平。

面对不断下滑的油价,美国能源部(Department of Energy)宣布,2至4月份将采购1,200万桶原油用于补充紧急性原油储备。而这仅仅是向紧急性原油储备注入大约2,500万桶原油计划的一部分,未来数月,每日向战略石油储备库注入的原油规模将达到大约18万桶的高位,创2005年3月份以来的储备补充规模之最。而与此同时,世界第二大石油消费国中国也在增加战略石油储备。

美国此举将大大提高石油需求。截至12月26日,美国石油需求下降122万桶,至1,946万桶/日,降幅5.9%,为1980年以来最大降幅。美国政府预计,2009年石油需求还将下降1%。

美国10月份石油需求增加

不过,美国石油需求数据有了新变化,2008年最后几天公布的数据显示,10月份美国石油需求超过预期,打破了连续11个月以来美国石油需求不及预期的局面。

不过,鉴于市场人士仍在寻找石油输出国组织(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, 简称:欧佩克)成员国恪守大规模减产承诺的证据,围绕油价是否接近见底的疑虑依然存在。油价从去年7月份每桶145.29美元的最高结算价水平一路跌至 12月19日低点每桶33.87美元。

目前已众所周知的是,在1月份作出油价预期要冒很大风险。2008年第一个交易日油价首次突破每桶 100美元时就曾有人预计,油价将升至每桶接近200美元,结果事与愿违。去年油价纪录不断被改写,当其过山车式的走势尘埃罗定后,人们计算出去年油价平均为每桶99.75美元,较2008年首日结算价每桶99.62美元仅仅相差几美分。

去年12月份油价平均为每桶42.04美元,创2004年7月份以来的最低水平,今年超越这一水平可能并非难事。12月份的原油均价较11月份下降了近27%,创1986年2月份以来的最大月度降幅。

纽约商交所1月份油价较上年12月份上涨、并确立当年价格底部的情况在历史上并不少见。过去9年中有5年时间里1月份的平均油价创年内低点。

加沙局势令人担忧

随着欧佩克将日产量削减240万桶的最新举措在新年生效,交易员们将密切关注油市。伊朗官员呼吁伊斯兰石油出口国停止向以色列支持国供应石油,以对近期爆发的加沙冲突作出回应,但是没有迹象显示有关方面在认真考虑举行谈判,这将继续令市场绷紧神经,并有可能引发空头回补带动的反弹行情。

美国能源情报署(Energy Information Administration, 简称EIA)的数据显示,10月份美国石油日需求量较初步数据向上修正了60万桶。虽然10月份日需求量仍较上年同期下降了4%(合下降83.3万桶/ 日),不过跌幅仍远远低于初步数据的7%(合下降140万桶/日)。

10月份的石油需求创5月份以来的最高水平,年度降幅也创下4月份以来的最低水平,不过,10月份的石油需求仍是1998年以来的同月最弱水平。

瑞银证券有限责任公司(UBS Securities Co.)驻纽约经济学家Jan Stuart目前预计,2008年第四季度美国石油日需求量较他之前的预期高80万桶,降幅也从之前预计的11.3%降至7.2%。

但是Stuart尚不认为油价反弹走势已经展开。

Stuart称,近期的反弹不过是抛售风暴中的短暂平静,价格下行趋势尚未打破。但是随着卖空风险的增加,油价下滑势头正开始减弱。

David Bird

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090106/fea144647.asp

2009年1月6日星期二

日本经济的汽车出口瘾

Japan's Car-Export Addiction

丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)的命运在很大程度上就是日本经济的命运。

As goes Toyota Motor Corp., so goes Japan.

在近些年经济出现低迷时,日本一直依赖汽车业来抵消其他行业的下滑。而汽车生产商延续十年的成功,尤其是丰田汽车对通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)全球最大汽车生产商地位的挑战,使得全球汽车销售陷入低迷之际,汽车业成了日本最大的出口行业。

In recent economic downturns, Japan has been able to lean on its auto industry to offset declines elsewhere. And a decade of success by the car makers -- particularly Toyota's challenge of General Motors Corp. as the world's biggest producer -- means the auto industry has become Japan's largest export sector just in time for a protracted slump in global auto sales.

根据摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)的资料,汽车业占美国国内生产总值(GDP)的比例仅为0.8%,而日本这一比例为3.2%。

While auto makers account for only 0.8% of U.S. gross domestic product, they make up 3.2% of Japan's GDP, according to J.P. Morgan.

日本在依赖愿意借贷又爱车的美国人方面,这些年也有增无减。全球汽车及汽车零部件出口值在不到十年中翻了一番;截至去年3月份的财政年度中,日本的出口额为 9,400亿美元,其中汽车业就占了五分之一强。丰田汽车三分之一的销售额和本田汽车(Honda Motor Co.)二分之一的销售额均来自美国市场。

And Japan's reliance on indebted, car-loving Americans has increased in recent years. The global export value of cars and auto parts has doubled in less than a decade and, in the fiscal year that ended last March, accounted for more than a fifth of Japan's $940 billion in world-wide exports. The U.S. accounts for a third of sales at Toyota and half at Honda Motor Co.

因此国内外销售额疲软引发的裁员和减产带来严重冲击,尤其是在日本汽车业的中心东海(Tokai)地区。

So the reductions in staff and planned output that are following poor sales at home and abroad are hitting hard -- particularly in the regional auto hub of Tokai.

当地人口占日本1.28亿总人口的12%左右;得益于汽车出口增长,该地区在亚洲金融危机和互联网泡沫破裂期间均避免了国内其他地区遭遇的失业问题。

The area is home to about 12% of Japan's 128 million people and managed to avoid the spike in unemployment elsewhere in the nation during both the Asian financial crisis and the dot-com downturn, thanks to growth in auto exports.

但就目前而言,上述经验几乎无法对当地执政者提供任何安慰。丰田汽车国内工厂聚集区爱知县就计划雇佣临时工来做检查公路等零工,以抵消裁员的影响。

That is surely little comfort to policy makers in the region now. Aichi prefecture -- home to the bulk of Toyota's domestic plants -- is planning to hire staff to do odd jobs like inspecting roads to offset employment cuts.

底特律的姐妹城市丰田城(Toyota City)拥有40万名居民,76,000个汽车业相关工作岗位。预计该市下一财年的企业税收入将比今年的4.9亿美元大幅减少十分之九。该市因此削减了公共工程支出。

Detroit's sister city, Toyota City, with 400,000 residents and 76,000 jobs connected to the auto business, expects next fiscal year's corporate tax revenue to plunge from about $490 million to one-tenth of that. So public-works spending is being slashed.

但汽车生产商的裁员减产可能只是刚刚开始。日本主要的八家汽车厂商已经将计划产量减少了220万辆,并裁减了11,000多名合同工。丰田11月份宣布的减产计划占全国整体减产量的近一半。

But the auto makers are probably just getting started with their cuts. Japan's main eight car makers have already cut planned output by 2.2 million units and axed more than 11,000 contract workers. Toyota accounts for almost half of the production cuts, which it announced in November.

James Simms

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090106/hrd111855.asp

美国12月汽车销量锐减

福特汽车公司(Ford Motor Co.) 12月份轻型汽车销量下降32%,丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)下滑37%,本田汽车(Honda Motor Co.)下降35%。这些数据为汽车行业15年来最糟糕的一年画上了句号,不过预计2009年汽车行业的前景更加黯淡。

整个美国汽车行业,包括日本的丰田汽车和本田汽车正在受到美国住房危机、信贷紧缩以及对经济衰退持续时间可能延长的担忧所带来的螺旋效应的冲击。

不过,福特对12月销量结果持乐观态度,并指出,公司12月份市场占有率上升至14.6%,较上年同期高0.7个百分点,也是该公司自1997年以来首次连续三个月实现市场占有率上升。

福特表示,12月轻型汽车销量为138,325辆,上年同期为204,446辆。去年12月有26个销售日,和上年同期相同。

福特、林肯和Mercury品牌汽车零售量下降27%。零售销量上升对福特的重组计划至关重要,因该公司正在削减批发销售量,把业务重心转向利润率更高的汽车经销商销量。福特批发销售量下降42%,其中日常租赁销量下滑57%。

福特汽车2008年销量下降21%,至198万辆。福特、林肯和Mercury零售销量下滑22%,批发销售量减少17%,其中日常租赁销售下滑22%。

这三个品牌的12月销量降26%,至43,087辆,同时卡车和货车销量降低30%,至54,295辆,F系列皮卡销量减少25%。运动型多用途车(SUV)销量下滑52%。

另外,Edge混合型汽车的销量下降57%。一度热销的小型车Focus销量降低17%。

丰田汽车12月份美国销量降至141,949辆,轿车、卡车和SUV均出现创历史纪录的降幅。该公司全年销量较上年下降16%,至222万辆。

本田汽车12月总销量为86,085辆。2008年总销量从2007年的155万辆降至142万辆。

美国最大的汽车生产商通用汽车(General Motors Corp.) 12月份轻型汽车销量为220,030辆,较上年同期下降31%,其中轿车和轻型卡车的销量分别下降25%和35%。去年12月有26个销售日,和上年同期相同。

该公司库存下降4%。

通用汽车2008年轻型汽车在美国市场的销量下降23%,至295万辆。

在眼下艰难的销售环境下,通用汽车等汽车生产商一直在削减产量。通用汽车表示,目前预计第一季度产量为42万辆,较上年同期下降53%,比此前的预期低18 万辆。在去年12月中旬,通用汽车曾表示,由于汽车销售疲软,将闲置北美地区大约三分之一工厂的产能,第一季度产量因此将下降大约25万辆。

同时,克莱斯勒(Chrysler) 12月销量下降53%,至89,813辆,其中批发销售量被削减63%。该公司全年销售量为145万辆,较上年减少30%。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090106/bus072546.asp

2009年1月4日星期日

克莱斯勒车厂收到40亿元紧急贷款

美国汽车业巨头克莱斯勒收到了美国政府提供的40亿美元紧急贷款,帮助公司逃过倒闭的命运。

这笔贷款是来自华盛顿上月批准的134亿美元拯救计划。克莱斯勒和其竞争对手通用汽车是受惠的对象。

两家汽车生产商都表示,在销售量下跌和信贷困难下,他们需要资金清缴供应商的欠款。

他们在获得华盛顿政府救助的同时,也答应在3月31日前完成架构重组,并证明企业有能力继续经营。

克莱斯勒行政总裁纳德利说:“这当前的贷款将让我们的公司能继续有序地进行重组。”

作为美国最大汽车生产商的通用汽车则在本周早些时候收到了第一笔40亿美元的贷款。在本月稍后时间他们还将取得第二笔54亿美元的贷款。

美国财政部同时批准了拯救通用汽车负责汽车贷款的子公司——通用汽车金融服务(GMAC)的计划。

GMAC是由通用汽车与克莱斯勒的最大股东塞尔伯斯资本管理公司共同持有。

记者们说,当美国主要的汽车生产商下周公布业绩时,预计将报告各自的2008年12月份销售额下跌至1992年以来最低的全年水平。

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7800000/newsid_7809200/7809277.stm

2009年1月2日星期五

通用汽车收到政府首批40亿美元低息贷款

通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)周三表示,该公司已经收到联邦政府首批40亿美元的低息贷款。而克莱斯勒公司(Chrysler LLC)则由于申请过程迟缓还在等待政府的紧急救助。

上述资金是通用汽车预计到1月份获得的总额94亿美元贷款的首付款,该公司2月份还将获得另外40亿美元资金援助。因销售放缓而蒙受数十亿美元亏损的通用汽车将把这些资金用于维持业务的运转。

通用汽车发布公告称,对于联邦政府在当前美国汽车业生死存亡的关头提供过渡性财务援助深表赞赏,并表示将致力于圆满完成公司与12月2日提出的解救计划,表示对公司的未来依然充满信心。

与此同时,克莱斯勒公司则希望尽快获得政府的40亿美元贷款援助,该公司此前表示,急需这笔资金来支付工人工资和供货商货款。

克莱斯勒公司首席执行长Robert Nardelli发布公告称,公司将继续与美国财政部(the Treasury Department)展开合作,迄今为止的对话是积极和建设性的;公司希望尽快拟定财务援助条款,希望在不远的将来达成过渡性融资协议。

财政部周三晚间发布公告称,财政部目前正加快与克莱斯勒谈判的进程,以最终达成援助协议,财政部仍将致力于在最后期限到来前完成交易,提供资金来满足克莱斯勒公司近期的融资所需。财政部还证实已经完成了对通用汽车的首批贷款发放。

在美国总统布什同意动用国会9月份批准的7,000亿美元金融救助资金为汽车业解困后,通用汽车和克莱斯勒在本月初就获得了政府贷款的承诺。上述贷款期限为三年,但如果上述两家公司不能在3月31日前证明能继续得以生存,政府有权收回上述贷款。

福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)此前表示无意申请政府援助。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090102/bus073833.asp