中国汽车业增长势头降温

Auto Indus Approaches Speed Bump

2008年07月24日11:25

近期中国市场汽车销售的疲软状态或许预示出，中国蓬勃发展的汽车工业、乃至普通消费者未来都将迎来一段更为严峻的时期。

A RECENT WEAKENING in China's auto sales could be signaling tougher times ahead for its booming car industry -- and for the Chinese consumer.

对于美国通用汽车(General Motors)、德国大众汽车(Volkswagen)以及日本的丰田汽车(Toyota Motor)和本田汽车(Honda Motor)来说，中国市场的颓势来得实在不是时候，因为为了保持增长、抵消本土销售不振的负面影响，这些公司都加大了在华生产投入。

It also comes at a bad time for General Motors of the U.S., Volkswagen of Germany and Toyota Motor and Honda Motor of Japan, which all have boosted production in China to sustain their growth and offset lackluster sales at home.

今年全球汽车行业的日子都不好过，因为愈显黯淡的经济前景令各地消费者都在大宗消费面前选择了按兵不动。今年上半年美国的汽车销量较07年同期下滑了10.1%，在欧洲和日本市场，汽车销量的降幅分别为2%和0.9%。

The global auto industry is suffering this year as worsening economic prospects lead consumers world-wide to hold off on big purchases. In the U.S., car sales in the first half of 2008 fell 10.1% from a year earlier; in Europe, they fell 2%, and in Japan, 0.9%.

而相比之下，中国同期汽车销量增长了18.5%，达到520万辆。其中轿车销量增长略逊于整体增幅，为17.1%。其中4、5月份汽车销量增长缓慢，到了6月份时增速则降至略高于15%的水平。

China's vehicle sales, by contrast, increased 18.5% in the first half to 5.2 million units. Growth in sales of passenger vehicles alone was slightly weaker at 17.1%. Sales in April and May were sluggish, and vehicle purchases in June slowed, totaling just over 15% above the number a year earlier.

汽车销售存在一定的周期性，而且中国当前的销售情况也并没有像从前那样急速下降。但是，随着油价走高以及中国整体经济的放缓，预计汽车市场的降温之势将越发明显。周三，中国政府表示将提高大排量汽车的消费税。

Auto sales are cyclical, and China's recent slowdown isn't yet as dramatic as some previous episodes. But with fuel prices rising and China's overall economy slowing, the automobile market is increasingly expected to cool. On Wednesday, the government said it will raise taxes on vehicles with high emissions.

联合证券(United Securities)分析师姚宏光表示，中国汽车行业的高速增长期已告结束，而且将一去不复返。

'The high-growth period for China's auto industry has already passed, and will not return,' says Yao Hongguang, an analyst for United Securities in Shenzhen.

他预计中国今年的汽车销量增幅为15%左右，中期增速将降至12%-13%，远不及06、07年时24%和22%；而且这将给那些断言汽车行业将延续红火势态的各路商家带来麻烦。

Sales are likely to rise about 15% this year, Mr. Yao says, before moderating to 12% to 13% growth in the medium term. That is well down from the 22% growth last year and the 24% jump in 2006, and could pose a problem for businesses that had banked on the boom continuing.

考虑到中国的市场规模，销售增长出现一定程度的放缓似乎也无可避免的。2003年时，中国的汽车销量为430万辆，到了2007年时就达到了880万辆，在这四年时间中销量实现了翻番。此间中国超过日本成为了仅次于美国的全球第二大汽车市场。

Some slowing in China is probably inevitable now, given the sheer size of the market. Annual sales of vehicles have doubled in four years, reaching 8.8 million in 2007 from 4.3 million in 2003. In the process, China overtook Japan as the world's second-largest vehicle market after the U.S.

中国近期的汽车消费动向一直受到了外界的密切关注，并被视为中国消费支出放缓的一个信号。虽然中国的出口行业正在经历着阵痛，但中国今年的经济增速仍超过了 10%，其中消费支出的推动功不可没。食品价格的猛涨可能会使得低收入家庭缩减在其他方面的开支。而股市和房市的双双走软也有可能给收入较高的家庭带来冲击。2008年至今，中国的基准股指已累计下跌了46%。

The recent trend in car purchases is being watched closely as a sign of a possible weakening in consumer spending -- which has helped keep China's economy growing at more than 10% this year, even as its exports suffer. The surge in food prices is likely to leave lower-income households with less money to spend on other things. Higher-income households also could be feeling the squeeze from the drop in the local stock market -- down 46% this year -- and a softer real-estate market.

中国的消费支出前景不甚明朗。即便考虑到通胀率上升的因素，今年截至目前，中国的零售额仍增长了14%-15%，增幅高于去年的12%-13%。然而，政府对消费者信心以及家庭支出所做调查却显示出了下行趋势。

The picture for consumer spending is mixed. Even after taking account of higher inflation, retail sales are rising by 14% to 15% so far this year, picking up from the 12% to 13% pace in 2007. Yet government surveys of consumer confidence and household spending show a declining trend.

中信证券(Citic Securities)驻北京的分析师李春波表示，对今年中国经济增长放缓的预期是造成近期汽车销量下滑的原因之一；消费者预计油价将进一步上涨，这也抑制了汽车消费需求。中国政府在6月份时上调了汽油和柴油的价格；由于考虑到中国市场成品油的价格仍不及国际油价，消费者普遍预计政府日后还会再次提高价格。

'The expectation of slower growth this year is one of the reasons behind the slowing trend in car sales in China. Consumer expectations of further rises in fuel prices will also suppress the demand for cars,' says Li Chunbo, an analyst with Citic Securities in Beijing. Government-set prices for gasoline and diesel were raised in June, and are widely expected to go up again as they remain below international levels.

即便中国的汽车销售增长没有出现明显放缓，那些认定销量将出现更快增长的汽车制造商最终也可能要面对产能过剩的苦果。雷曼兄弟 (Lehman Brothers)驻香港经济学家孙明春表示，中国的汽车销量仍在以两位数增长，这无疑是非常强劲的，但产能增长甚至比需求还要迅猛，这正是令我感到担心的地方；我认为这些汽车厂家在过去几年太过乐观，产能增加过度。

Even if growth in auto purchases doesn't slow much, manufacturers who had been counting on faster growth could end up with excess capacity. 'Demand is still growing at double-digit rates, it's very strong. The reason I am concerned is that the capacity growth is even stronger,' says Sun Mingchun, an economist for Lehman Brothers in Hong Kong. 'I think the auto makers were too optimistic in the past few years, and built up too much capacity.'

投资者似乎对这一点也颇为认同，他们抛售了中国几家大型汽车企业的股票。在上海证交所上市、并分别和通用汽车以及大众汽车建有合资企业的上海汽车(SAIC Motor Co.)今年的股价已重挫了68%。和本田汽车在广州设有一家合资工厂、并拥有一半股份的骏威汽车(Denway Motors.)今年股价累计下滑了42%。宝马汽车(BMW)在华合作伙伴华晨中国汽车(Brilliance China Automotive Holdings.)的股价下跌了47%。这两家公司的股票均在香港交易所上市。

Investors appear to agree, and have punished the stocks of leading Chinese auto makers. SAIC Motor, which has joint ventures with General Motors and Volkswagen, has seen the price of its Shanghai-traded shares drop 68% this year. Hong Kong-listed Denway Motors, which owns half of a Honda plant in Guangzhou, is down 42%. Shares in the Chinese partner of BMW, Brilliance China Automotive Holdings, are off 47%, also in Hong Kong.

眼下汽车制造企业已经在为成本不断上升而挠头，产能过剩的问题则可能给车价带来更多下行压力。东方证券(Orient Securities)估算，在中国，汽车制造行业所必需的轮胎和玻璃价格分别上涨了5%及10%，而塑料和钢材的价格更是上涨了40%以上。

Excess capacity could put downward pressure on car prices just when manufacturers are facing surging costs. Car makers in China are facing a 5% increase in tire prices, a 10% increase in glass prices, and a more than 40% increase in prices for plastic and steel, according to estimates by Orient Securities.

此外，中国消费者购买倾向的变化已让汽车制造企业疲于应对。中国汽车工业协会(China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)提供的数据显示，今年上半年，主要致力于生产人民币80,000元（约合12,000美元）以下低档汽车的本土厂家奇瑞汽车 (Chery Automobile Co.)销量增幅仅为0.7%。分析师指出，低端市场在油价上涨面前最为敏感。

And manufacturers already are struggling to adjust to the evolution of Chinese consumer preferences. First-half sales by unlisted Chery Automobile, a manufacturer of domestic-brand cars that has specialized in vehicles costing less than 80,000 yuan ($12,000), increased just 0.7% from a year earlier, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Analysts say the lower-income market is most sensitive to the rise in fuel costs.

行业分析师指出，今年通用汽车和大众汽车在中国的市场份额似乎略有下降，不过，丰田、本田等日本品牌却赢得了更多的市场占有率。

Industry analysts report that Japanese brands such as Toyota and Honda are gaining market share this year, while the local market share of General Motors and Volkswagen appears to be declining slightly.

仍有很多分析师对去年11月才在港上市的中国重汽（香港）有限公司(Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Ltd.)青睐有加。这家公司隶属于国有企业中国重汽集团(China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Co.)，今年截至目前，该股已经累计下跌了37%。

A vehicle manufacturer that many analysts still like is newly listed Sinotruk (Hong Kong), an arm of state-controlled China National Heavy Duty Truck. The stock, which was listed in Hong Kong in November, has fallen 37% this year.

令部分经纪行对这只股票感到乐观的原因之一就是该公司服务于商用市场，并不依赖于消费需求。

One reason some brokerages are positive about Sinotruk is that its nonpassenger vehicles serve a business market and don't depend on consumer demand.

摩根大通公司(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)亚洲汽车行业研究主管Frank Li指出，中国的重型汽车需求增长与固定资产投资增长高度相关。

'There is a strong correlation between China's heavy-truck demand growth and China's fixed-asset investment growth,' says Frank Li, head of Asian auto research at J.P. Morgan Chase.

他指出，由于中国政府不断开建新的公共项目，投资增长应能保持于高位，与出口或消费支出相比，重型汽车的需求可能更加坚挺。

As the government can keep investment growth high with new public-works projects, it could prove more resilient than exports or consumer spending, he says.

Andrew Batson

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080724/ahr113436.asp

电动汽车瓶颈探究

The Holdup To Electric Cars Explained

2008年07月22日14:15

最近的油价飙升大大推动了这样一个观点：认为交通能源应当来自电网而非中东的油井。

One of the Big Ideas that has gotten a boost from the recent oil-price shock is the notion that the energy for transportation should come from the electric grid, not an oil well in the Middle East.

一些老牌大汽车厂商已经宣布计划，要生产完全或部分电力驱动的汽车。它们与Tesla Motors等一些新兴公司一道，试图通过确立新一代动力技术而实现长足发展。

A number of big, established car makers have announced plans to produce cars that will pull from the electric grid all or part of the energy needed to make them go. They join a flock of upstart companies, such as Tesla Motors, trying to prosper by defining a new generation of mobility technology.

正当人们为日常出行的电气化前景兴奋不已之际，通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)前董事长兼首席执行长罗伯特?施 佩尔(Robert Stempel)却对此泼了点冷水。

For everyone excited about electrifying the morning commute, Robert Stempel, the former chairman and chief executive officer of General Motors Corp., has a few sobering words.

施佩尔是电动汽车的支持者──他的“电动”概念包括了纯电动系统以及油电混合系统。在GM任职期间，他就曾为GM开发EV1电动汽车开了绿灯。在1992年 GM的上一次大规模财务危机之时，施佩尔由于董事会纷争而被排挤出GM，随后时间他继续投身电动汽车的计划。接下来，他出任美国电池生产商Energy Conversion Devices Inc.董事长十余年，直到去年离职。

Mr. Stempel believes in the idea of electric-drive cars -- he uses the term 'electric drive' to encompass both all-electric systems and plug-in hybrids. He gave the green light to development of an electric car, GM's EV1. After he was pushed out of GM by a boardroom coup during the auto maker's last big financial crisis in 1992, Mr. Stempel continued to devote himself to the electric-car idea. He spent more than a decade as chairman of U.S. battery maker Energy Conversion Devices Inc. before leaving the company last year.

无论在GM还是Energy Conversion Devices，施 佩尔推动电动汽车商业化的努力都遇到了无数难关。GM因停止EV1项目而饱受批评。当时已离职很久的施 佩尔表示，停止该项目没有任何托词。

At both GM and at Energy Conversion Devices, Mr. Stempel's efforts to make a profitable business out of electric vehicles hit numerous potholes. GM has taken flak for killing the EV1. Mr. Stempel, who was long gone when the plug was pulled, says there was no subterfuge involved.

他说，这个项目无利可图，EV1成本太高，大大超出了成本目标。

'The business side of the case wasn't there. The EV1 was too expensive . . . We were way off the cost target,' he says.

现为底特律郊外一家事务所顾问的施 佩尔说，电动汽车实现大规模生产的障碍与当年爱迪生告诉福特一年之内就可以给他的汽车装上电池时的情况一样，薄弱之处就在于电池。

Mr. Stempel, now a consultant with an office in suburban Detroit, says the obstacle to mass production of electric vehicles is the same issue as it was 'when Mr. Edison told Mr. Ford that in a year he'd have a battery for his car. The weak link is the battery.'

他说，镍氢电池已证明是可靠的，不会出现燃烧等不稳定的情况。但镍氢电池的行驶里程无法与传统汽车竞争。

Nickel metal hydride, or NiMH, batteries have proven reliable, he says. 'It doesn't do anything naughty, like burn up,' he says. But NiMH batteries don't have the range to be competitive with conventional cars.

类似笔记本电脑电池的锂电池技术能较为轻便小巧，同时提供更长的行驶里程。但锂电池确实有不稳定的特性。Tesla Roadster就使用与笔记本电脑相似的锂电池。Tesla最重要的技术并不是电池本身，而是其工程师们设计的确保电池散热及运转正常的控制系统。

Lithium-ion battery technology, similar to that used in laptop computers, offers better range from smaller, lighter packages. But lithium-ion batteries do have a propensity to be naughty. The Tesla Roadster uses lithium-ion batteries similar to those used in laptops. Tesla's important technology idea isn't the commodity batteries. It's the systems Tesla engineers designed to assure they stay cool and under control.

施 佩尔担心，将数千个笔记本电池堆到一辆车上会造成一个“控制的噩梦”。

Piling thousands of laptop batteries into a car creates 'a control nightmare,' Mr. Stempel worries.

还有就是成本的问题。施 佩尔说，看看镍的成本变动，该金属价格已经大幅飙升。他说，在最近的大宗商品涨价潮中，许多电池原材料商品的价格都出现大涨。

Then there's the issue of cost. 'Look at what happened to the cost of nickel,' says Mr. Stempel. 'The price of nickel has gone off the charts.' A lot of the commodities used in batteries have gotten expensive in the recent commodity price boom, he says.

但这些并不意味着汽车行业应当再次放弃电力驱动汽车。在降低经济对石油的依赖性的问题上，美国人开车烧掉了多少油并不是一个普通问题，而是极其重大的问题。但消费者还是需要冷静看待最近媒体大炒电力驱动汽车新车型的消息。

None of this necessarily means the auto industry should once again give up on electric-drive cars. When it comes to reducing the economy's dependence on oil, the amount Americans burn up in cars isn't one issue. It is THE issue. But consumers need to take the latest flurry of press releases touting forthcoming electric-drive vehicle models with a few grains of salt.

汽油内燃机主宰汽车业上百年有一个很合理的理由：以动力的单位成本计，它比其他动力更合算。施 佩尔说，就单位马力成本而言，汽油动力汽车比电动车经济五到十倍，这取决于尾 排放标准的严格程度。

The petroleum-fueled internal combustion engine has dominated automotive transportation for a century for a good reason: On the basis of power per dollar, it's more cost effective than the competition. Depending on how strictly one controls the emissions, Mr. Stempel says, a gasoline fueled car can be five to 10 times more efficient on a dollars-per-horsepower basis than an electric car.

电动汽车面临的挑战也凸显了美国当前能源论战背后的一个大问题：我们应该在多大程度上相信科技能拯救我们？

The challenges confronting the drive to electrify automobiles point to a big question underlying the current energy debate in America: How much faith should we have in technology to bail us out?

就汽车业未来而言，这就是技术派与怀疑派之争。技术派认为，电池技术、储氢技术、纤维素乙醇生产、水分解制氢系统以及轻型汽车的设计等方面的技术创新都已近在眼前。

When it comes to the future of cars, it's Technologists vs. Skeptics. Technologists believe that innovations in battery technology, hydrogen storage, cellulosic ethanol production, water-to-hydrogen systems, and lightweight vehicle design are right around the corner.

而怀疑论者则认为，能真正取代燃油动力车的技术还需要数年甚至数十年才能研发成熟。

Skeptics, though, contend that the technology to substantially displace oil-fired mobility will take years, maybe decades, to develop.

Joseph B. White

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080722/ffe142824.asp

汽车制造商抵制钢铁加价

Auto Makers Resist Steel Firms' Surcharges

2008年07月08日10:08

为了遏制钢铁价格无休止的上涨、改善自身不良的财务状况，一些汽车厂家已开始抵制价格上涨，称不会接受现有供应合约基础上的额外加价。

In an effort to curb the relentless rise in steel prices and bolster their own frail finances, some auto makers are beginning to push back on price increases, saying they won't pay surcharges on agreed-upon supply contracts.

这是钢铁企业收到的首批抵制涨价的强硬信号之一，说明受影响最严重的客户可能已忍无可忍，无法再忍受价格的继续上涨。

The resistance is one of the first strong signals to steelmakers that their hardest-hit customers have reached a tipping point and may not be able to withstand higher prices.

知情人士透露，一些汽车厂家威胁向法庭起诉加价问题，称合约的财务条款不能更改。

Some auto makers are threatening to fight the additional charges in court, saying that financial terms of a contract can't be altered, according to people familiar with the matter.

目前，在美国的大多数钢铁企业，如安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)、U.S. Steel Corp.和AK Steel Corp.等都在同福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)、通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)、丰田汽车(Toyota Motor Corp.)等公司进行最新一轮商谈，确定合约购买钢铁的价格和条款。

The standoff comes as most steelmakers in the U.S., including ArcelorMittal, U.S Steel Corp. and AK Steel Corp., are engaged in the latest cycle of negotiations with Ford Motor Co., General Motors Corp., Toyota Motor Corp. and others to set the price and terms of steel bought on a contract.

许多合约都是在每年的这个时候进行商谈。福特汽车、通用汽车和丰田汽车的代表对目前的合约谈判不予置评。

Many contracts are negotiated this time of year. Representatives of Ford, GM and Toyota declined to comment on the current contract negotiations.

双方承认，由于铁矿石等原材料成本的上升和能源价格的上涨，下一轮的合约价格将会大大高于此前的合约。上周五，全球产量最大的矿业公司必和必拓(BHP Billiton)表示，该公司向钢铁公司出售的铁矿石的平均价格将比去年提价85%。全球产量第三大的矿业公司力拓(Rio Tinto)上月宣布，铁矿石价格平均提高85%。

Both sides concede that the price in the next cycle of negotiated contracts will be significantly higher than in previous contracts, owing to higher costs for raw materials such as iron ore and higher energy prices. On Friday, the world's largest miner by output, BHP Billiton, said it is charging steelmakers an average of 85% more for iron ore, a key ingredient in the production of steel, than charged last year. Rio Tinto, the world's third-largest miner by output, announced an average increase of 85% last month.

但汽车厂家不愿接受钢铁企业的加价。

But the auto makers are balking at surcharges steelmakers are attempting to impose.

全球最大的钢铁公司安赛乐米塔尔已经对每短吨钢铁收取250美元的加价。根据该公司发给其客户的信函，加价从5月5日开始生效。但在两个月之后的今天，一些汽车厂家仍在对此进行抵制。

ArcelorMittal, by all measures the biggest steelmaker in the world, has added a surcharge of $250 on each short ton of steel. The surcharge was slated to begin May 5, according to a letter the steelmaker sent to its customers. But now, two months later, some auto makers are still resisting.

安赛乐米塔尔的首席财务长阿迪蒂亚?米塔尔(Aditya Mittal)说，一些客户接受了加价，还有一些则没有。对那些没有接受的，我们仍在进行商谈。

'There are some customers who have accepted the surcharges and some who have not,' says Aditya Mittal, chief financial officer at ArcelorMittal. 'For those who have not, we are still in negotiations.'

也有一些钢铁公司并未单边进行加价，而是分别与各个汽车厂家就此进行磋商。AK Steel发言人阿兰?迈考伊(Alan McCoy)说，公司正在根据各个公司不同的情况进行商谈。U.S. Steel对价格谈判不予置评。

Other steelmakers haven't levied unilateral surcharges, but are negotiating surcharges individually with car makers. AK Steel spokesman Alan McCoy said the company is negotiating on a case-by-case basis. U.S. Steel declined to comment on price talks.

钢铁公司和汽车制造商之间的谈判非常具体，常会包含双方签字后可能导致合约变化的条款。汽车制造商不会指控钢铁公司欺诈，但一些汽车厂家质疑钢铁公司是否有改变现有合同的法律权利。钢铁公司坚称他们拥有这个权利，现有合约内达成的条款允许作出这些改变。

Negotiations between steelmakers and auto makers are highly specific and often include clauses and conditions that could result in changes to the contract after the two sides sign. Auto makers aren't charging steelmakers with gouging, but some auto makers are questioning whether steelmakers have a legal right to change existing contracts. Steelmakers assert that they do have this right and that terms agreed upon within existing contracts allow for these changes.

安赛乐米塔尔说，相信汽车厂家最终将会接受加价。

ArcelorMittal said it is confident that auto makers will end up paying the surcharges.

由于新兴经济体大力建设基础设施、商业建筑和发展汽车工业，对钢铁的需求大增，导致了钢铁供不应求，进而推动钢铁价格大幅上涨，在过去一年里的涨幅尤为剧烈。

As emerging countries increase their need for steel to build infrastructure, commercial buildings and automobiles in their respective countries, the demand for steel has outstripped supply. That has caused prices to shoot up, most drastically in the past year.

这也使得过去一直在谈判中占据主导地位的美国汽车厂家制造商的议价能力大为下降。几十年来，美国的汽车制造商一直是钢铁公司最为倚重的客户，它们也常常逼迫后者以折扣价达成长期钢铁销售合约。

That has left U.S. auto makers, which had long dominated steelmakers during negotiations, in a weak bargaining position. For decades, U.S. auto makers were the steelmakers' most lucrative customers and bullied them into selling them long-term contract steel at discount rates.

尽管汽车厂家对目前的谈判不予置评，但它们曾表示，在这样一个困难的时期，钢铁和其它原材料的成本给汽车行业带来沉重的负担。

Although auto makers declined to comment on current talks, they have stated that steel and other raw-material costs are burdening the industry at one of its worst times.

Robert Guy Matthews

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080708/ffe101337.asp

降低油价 有计可施

We Can Lower Oil Prices Now

2008年07月03日09:01

尽管大多数专家都认为，金融投机活动并不是推动全球食品与能源价格飙升的罪魁祸首，但许多人仍然对物价显著上涨的根源感到困惑。关于这个问题，经济学从供求关系的角度提出了简单解释，并对大宗商品价格未来走势提供了乐观的理由。具体到油价问题，经济学分析揭示了对未来产生影响的当前政策调整又是如何反过来迅速促使当前油价回落的。

Although most experts agree that financial speculation was not responsible for the surge in the global prices of food and energy, many people remain puzzled about the source of these remarkable price rises. Economics offers a simple supply-and-demand explanation and reason for optimism about the future of commodity prices. In the case of oil, economics also suggests how policy changes today that affect the future could quickly lower the current price of oil.

众所周知，中国、印度与海湾国家的收入增长带动了石油与其他许多大宗商品的需求上扬。但这种温和短期的需求增长如何能导致石油等大宗商品价格上涨高达一倍？让我们首先看看易腐农产品的情况。

We all know that rising incomes in China, India and the Gulf states have increased the demand for oil and many other commodities. But how could the modest, one-year rise of these demands lead to 100% increases in the prices of oil and other commodities? Let's take a look first at perishable agricultural commodities.

与需求的全球性增长相比，短期内玉米供应的增长空间有限。从市场的供求平衡方面来说，玉米价格必须上涨。

In the short run, there is little scope for increasing the supply of corn in response to a global increase in demand. For demand and supply to balance -- for the market to clear -- the price of corn must rise.

如果玉米需求对价格变化非常敏感，那么很小的价格上涨就会引起全球需求下降足够的幅度，从而抵消当初的需求增长。但是，由于短期内需求实际上对价格十分不敏感，因此就需要非常明显的价格上涨才能使全球需求与供应保持一致。

If the demand for corn were very price-sensitive, a relatively small increase in price would reduce global demand by enough to offset the initial rise in demand. However, since demand is actually quite insensitive to price in the short run, it takes a very large price rise to bring global demand into line with supply.

下面是去年发生的状况的一个简化模型。高增长国家的玉米需求数量稳步增长，增幅最终达到了相当于此前全球玉米总消费量的10%。由于玉米供应没有跟着增长，因此价格不得不上涨一定程度，从而促使其他国家的玉米消费量下降10%。如果价格上涨10%才能推动头年玉米需求下降1%，那么价格就需要上涨一倍，才能抵消玉米需求最初增长的10%。

Here is a simplified picture of what happened in the past year. The quantity of corn demanded by high-growth countries rose gradually, increasing eventually by an amount equal to, say, 10% of the previous total global level of corn consumption. Since the supply of corn did not increase, the price had to increase enough to reduce corn consumption in other countries by 10%. If it takes a 10% increase in the price to reduce the quantity of corn demanded in the first year by just 1%, it would take a 100% increase in the price of corn to offset the initial 10% rise in the quantity of corn demanded.

实际上，在供求两个方面都有不同农产品作替换，加之玉米乙醇项目的实施，导致上述简单的关系变得复杂化。但基本原理并没有变：由于短期内需求对价格变化非常不敏感，短期供应提升空间有限，因此即使高增长经济体的玉米需求出现相当小的增长，都会导致玉米价格出现非常明显的短期上涨。

In reality, the picture is complicated by the substitution in both supply and demand among different agricultural commodities, and by the role of the corn ethanol program. But the basic explanation holds: With a very low short-run price sensitivity of demand and little scope to raise supply in the short run, even a relatively small increase in corn demand by the high-growth economies can lead to a very large short-run rise in the price of corn.

幸运的是，需求与供应的价格敏感性都会随着时间逐渐上升。这意味着，尽管中国等国家的需求不断增长，但玉米价格最终可能会较当前水平有所回落。

Fortunately, the price sensitivity of both demand and supply will increase with time. This implies that the rising demand from China and other countries may eventually be accommodated with a price lower than today's level.

油价的状况更为复杂，但价格变化的结果可能会更加有利。

The situation for oil is more complex, but the outcome for prices is potentially more favorable.

不同于易腐烂的农产品，石油可以长期埋在地下。因此让我们想想，一个产油商何时会降低产量或增加库存，而不是出售石油并将所得变成可投资现金呢？简单的说，如果产油商估计油价涨幅高于售油所得资金的利息，那么他们就情愿将石油留在地下以待日后开采。实际油价涨势可能会快于或慢于预期，但出售或是持有石油则取决于油价预期涨势。

Unlike perishable agricultural products, oil can be stored in the ground. So when will an owner of oil reduce production or increase inventories instead of selling his oil and converting the proceeds into investible cash? A simplified answer is that he will keep the oil in the ground if its price is expected to rise faster than the interest rate that could be earned on the money obtained from selling the oil. The actual price of oil may rise faster or slower than is expected, but the decision to sell (or hold) the oil depends on the expected price rise.

当然，影响产油商决定从而左右油价走势的因素还有风险方面的考虑，以及价格变化对长期消费行为的影响。拥有强大定价能力的石油输出国组织(OPEC，简称欧佩克)仍然发挥着重要作用。但基本点是，产油国会调整其开采与库存水平，直至油价预计会以利息水平上涨（经风险因素调整）。如果他们预计油价会加速上涨，他们就会将石油留在地下日后开采。反过来，如果预计油价涨幅不及利息，这些产油商就会提高产量，用售油资金进行投资。

There are of course considerations of risk, and of the impact of price changes on long-term consumer behavior, that complicate the oil owner's decision -- and therefore the behavior of prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (the OPEC cartel), with its strong pricing power, still plays a role. But the fundamental insight is that owners of oil will adjust their production and inventories until the price of oil is expected to rise at the rate of interest, appropriately adjusted for risk. If the price of oil is expected to rise faster, they'll keep the oil in the ground. In contrast, if the price of oil is not expected to rise as fast as the rate of interest, the owners will extract more and invest the proceeds.

未来与当前油价之间的关系显示，未来油价的预期变化会对当前油价产生直接影响。

The relationship between future and current oil prices implies that an expected change in the future price of oil will have an immediate impact on the current price of oil.

由此可推，当产油商认定未来数年中国与其他一些国家的石油需求会较此前预期加速增长时，他们就会认为未来油价会高于此前预期的水平。因此，这些产油商会降低供应，使得现货价格上涨足够的幅度，从而推动预期价格涨势回落到最初水平。

Thus, when oil producers concluded that the demand for oil in China and some other countries will grow more rapidly in future years than they had previously expected, they inferred that the future price of oil would be higher than they had previously believed. They responded by reducing supply and raising the spot price enough to bring the expected price rise back to its initial rate.

因此，在当前石油需求状况没有变化的情况下，对未来需求增长以及油价上涨的预期导致了当前油价走高。与此类似，对俄罗斯与墨西哥未来产量下滑的可信报告也暗示，未来全球油价会进一步上涨；这也需要当前油价走高，保证油价维持最初的预期涨幅。

Hence, with no change in the current demand for oil, the expectation of a greater future demand and a higher future price caused the current price to rise. Similarly, credible reports about the future decline of oil production in Russia and in Mexico implied a higher future global price of oil -- and that also required an increase in the current oil price to maintain the initial expected rate of increase in the price of oil.

一旦理解其中关系，就很容易明白那些新闻报导、传言与行业报告导致当前油价出现大幅波动的原因了──即使当前供求并没有发生任何变化。

Once this relation is understood, it is easy to see how news stories, rumors and industry reports can cause substantial fluctuations in current prices -- all without anything happening to current demand or supply.

当然，由未来油价预期引发的现货油价上涨会促使当前石油需求量下降。如果当前石油供求一开始处于平衡状态，欧佩克与其他产油国就会减少石油供应，使得供应与暂时下降的需求保持一致。未来石油需求增长的预期因此会导致当前石油供应出现下降。这正是2007年沙特阿拉伯等国家减产的原因。

Of course, a rise in the spot price of oil triggered by a change in expectations about future prices will cause a decline in the current quantity of oil that consumers demand. If current supply and demand were initially in balance, the OPEC countries and other oil producers would respond by reducing sales to bring supply into line with the temporary reduction in demand. A rise in the expected future demand for oil thus causes a current decline in the amount of oil being supplied. This is what happened as the Saudis and others cut supply in 2007.

并不只有坏消息。任何引起未来预期油价下跌的政策都会导致当前油价下跌，或促使油价涨势出现回落。换句话说，通过政策推动当前油价回落是有可能的，只要这些政策能够对未来的供应或需求产生实际影响。

Now here is the good news. Any policy that causes the expected future oil price to fall can cause the current price to fall, or to rise less than it would otherwise do. In other words, it is possible to bring down today's price of oil with policies that will have their physical impact on oil demand or supply only in the future.

例如，提高对汽车节能技术研发的政府补贴，或是严格标准逐步提高汽车的汽油里程数，都可以降低未来的石油需求，进而促使目前的油价回落。

For example, increases in government subsidies to develop technology that will make future cars more efficient, or tighter standards that gradually improve the gas mileage of the stock of cars, would lower the future demand for oil and therefore the price of oil today.

与此类似，未来石油供应上涨的预期也可以推动当前油价回落。而当前油价下跌会随即推动石油消费增长，促使欧佩克成员国以及其他当前拥有过剩产能或可用库存的产油国提高供应量，推动供求关系恢复平衡。

Similarly, increasing the expected future supply of oil would also reduce today's price. That fall in the current price would induce an immediate rise in oil consumption that would be matched by an increase in supply from the OPEC producers and others with some current excess capacity or available inventories.

只要我们目前能够采取措施提高未来石油供应，或降低美国与其他国家的未来需求，都可以促使当前油价回落，并提振消费。

Any steps that can be taken now to increase the future supply of oil, or reduce the future demand for oil in the U.S. or elsewhere, can therefore lead both to lower prices and increased consumption today.

Martin Feldstein

（编者按：本文作者马丁?费尔德斯坦(Martin Feldstein)曾在里根(Reagan)总统执政时期担任经济顾问委员会(Council of Economic Advisers)主席，现任哈佛大学教授、《华尔街日报》投稿委员会成员。）>

(Editor's Note: Mr. Feldstein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Reagan, is a professor at Harvard and a member of The Wall Street Journal's board of contributors.)

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080703/opn091409.asp

美国汽车业形势进一步恶化，SUV销量锐减

2008年7月2日 03:57

美国汽车业形势在6月份出现进一步恶化，市场对卡车和运动型多用途车(SUV)的需求大幅下降。

通用汽车月末进行的大规模促销活动很可能在一定程度上提振了其销量水平，这令该公司6月份的销售表现好于另外三家汽车业巨头。通用汽车6月份汽车销量降幅为 18%，而丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp., TM)和福特汽车公司(Ford Motor Co., F)当月的销量分别下降了21%和28%，克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)汽车销量减少了36%。

6月份销售日比上年同期少了3天，这虽在一定程度上扩大了销量降幅，但高企的汽油价格仍是导致销量减少的一个重要原因。每加仑4美元的汽油价格令消费者更为青睐节能型轿车，而汽车公司传统的盈利产品卡车和SUV的需求出现明显下降。

通用汽车在6月份共售出262,329辆轿车和轻型卡车，当月轻型卡车销量下降16%，轿车销量下降21%。

第二季度通用汽车共生产83.5万辆汽车，较上年同期低27%。

丰田汽车在6月份共售出193,234辆汽车，轿车销量下降9.4%，轻型卡车销量下降42%，SUV销量下降39%。而福特汽车当月的SUV销量降幅高达55%。

福特汽车在6月份共售出173,462辆轻型汽车，该公司当月乘用车总销量下降12%，卡车和SUV的销量下降36%，F系列卡车销量下降41%。

克莱斯勒6月份汽车销量从上年同期的183,347减至117,457辆，轿车销量下降49%，至29,858辆，卡车销量下降30%，至87,599辆。

本文由道琼斯通讯社提供，获取更丰富更及时的道琼斯财经资讯，请访问WWW.DJCNEWS.COM。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080702/BUS012378.asp