Toyota's Recall Costs May Top $5 Billion
丰田公司召回事件成本或逾50亿美元
The financial impact on Toyota Motor Corp. from its global recall could total more than $5 billion over the next year because of increased incentive campaigns, litigation costs and marketing efforts by the embattled car maker, analysts say.
分析师表示，由于困境之中的丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)需要加强促销活动、承担诉讼费用以及拿出市场营销措施，未来一年其全球召回行动对公司财务方面的影响总计可能超过50亿美元。
The critical question facing the world's leading car maker is how long the fallout from the recall will affect sales in North America, its largest market. After a slow start, Toyota is biting back at its critics and has launched an aggressive sales campaign in the U.S., featuring a 0% interest, five-year loan offer; competitive lease prices; and free maintenance across 80% of its vehicle lineup.
这个全球领先的汽车制造商所面临的关键问题是召回事件的后果将会在多长的时间内对其最大的市场──北美市场的销售造成影响。虽然最初反应迟缓，但现在丰田公司正在对受到的批评进行回击，并在美国开始了力度很大的促销活动，包括五年期零利率贷款、具有竞争力的租车价格以及为其80%的车型提供免费维修服务。
With more than $29 billion in cash on its balance sheet and very low levels of borrowing, Toyota has a comfortable cushion to absorb the blows and doesn't stand out as a credit risk.
丰田资产负债表上的现金存量超过290亿美元，贷款水平非常低，这使它在应对打击方面有充分的回旋空间，没有出现信贷风险。
However, ratings agency Fitch has placed the company's A-plus rating on negative watch. Fitch said the recall and sales suspension casts a negative light on Toyota's reputation for quality. A reduction in a company's credit rating can make it more expensive for the firm to raise money in the debt market.
然而，评级机构惠誉公司(Fitch)已把丰田公司的A+评级列入负面观察名单。惠誉公司称召回和暂停销售事件对丰田公司注重质量的声誉造成了负面影响。降低某一公司的信用等级将使其在债市筹资的成本增加。
Despite the onslaught of negative media coverage from late January, Toyota's market share in the U.S. slipped to 12.7% in February from just above 14% the previous month. 'The fact that Toyota slipped by only 130 basis points from January to February was pretty impressive,' said Kurt Sanger, auto-industry analyst at Deutsche Bank in Tokyo. 'How much they can rebound and at what cost will be critical going forward.'
尽管受到1月末媒体负面报道的冲击，丰田公司2月份在美国的市场份额却只是小幅下滑至12.7%，前一个月为略高于14%。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)驻东京汽车行业分析师桑格(Kurt Sanger)说，丰田公司的市场份额从1月到2月仅下滑了130个基点着实令人印象深刻。他们能恢复多少以及以什么代价恢复是下一阶段将的关键。
Toyota is still set to report a net profit for the fiscal year ending March 31 of 80 billion yen, or about $886 million, reversing a net loss of 437 billion yen the previous year, the company's first loss in 59 years.
丰田仍准备报告其截至3月31日的本财年净利润达800亿日圆（约合8.86亿美元），扭转了前一财年净亏损 4,370亿日圆的颓势。那是丰田公司59年历史上首次出现亏损。
'As there is less than a month left for this fiscal year, the impact won't be significant. But it will severely weigh from the next fiscal year. It is hard to say if Toyota will be able to post a profit easily in the next fiscal year,' said Tatsuya Mizuno, analyst at Mizuno Credit Advisory.
顾问公司Mizuno Credit Advisory公司分析师水野达也(Tatsuya Mizuno)说，鉴于本财年只剩下不到一个月，召回对本财年的影响不会太大。但将严重影响下一财年。很难说丰田在下一财年能否轻松实现盈利。
Toyota itself has factored in a recall cost of 180 billion yen for the fiscal year ending March 31, the only public estimates the company has given of the toll from the current firestorm. But analysts say costs going forward will be much higher.
丰田公司自己在将于3月31日截止的本财年中计入了1,800亿日圆的召回成本。这是丰田公司唯一一次公开评估当前这场危机的代价。但分析师称未来成本将会高许多。
A Toyota representative Tuesday declined to comment on analysts' estimates of its costs from April 1.
周二丰田公司的一位代表拒绝评论分析师对该公司4月1日起相关成本的估计。
J.P. Morgan estimates that Toyota's one-time, recall-related costs could total 400 billion yen, plus an additional 100 billion yen for settling litigation-related costs. Kohei Takahashi, J.P. Morgan's autos analyst, has slashed his operating-profit target for Toyota to 540 billion yen from a previous forecast of 760 billion yen, for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2011.
摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)估计，丰田公司与召回相关的一次性总成本可能达到4,000亿日圆，另外，与和解诉讼有关的成本还有1,000亿日圆。摩根大通汽车分析师高桥浩平（Kohei Takahashi）已将截至2011年3月31日财年内丰田公司营业利润的预期从以前的7,600亿日圆下调到5,400亿日圆。
Deutsche Bank estimates the recalls will impact its operating profit by 290 billion yen.
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)估计，召回将使丰田公司营业利润减少2,900亿日圆。
Toyota's toughest mission is to continue to woo new customers to its brand, and to change the minds of those sitting on the fence. According to CNW Market Research, an automotive market-research company, 7% of consumers previously intending to buy a Toyota won't do so now.
丰田最艰难的使命是继续吸引新客户，并改变观望者的心态。据汽车市场研究公司CNW Market Research分析，以前打算购买丰田的消费者中，有7%的人已不会购买。
'It's the people that are sitting on the fence that Toyota is trying to convince,' said Christopher Richter, auto analyst at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. 'Toyota still has a significant core audience, but a smaller percentage of people are still moved by safety concerns.'
里昂证券(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)汽车分析师里克特(Christopher Richter)说，丰田正努力争取的，是那些观望的人。丰田依旧拥有一个庞大的核心受众群，但仍然有较少部分的人受安全顾虑左右。
The company also has to continue its pace of sales to avoid an inventory buildup or idling its plants in the U.S. 'If its sales drop, this capacity problem will increase its fixed costs,' said Mr. Mizuno.
丰田还必须保持销售进度，以避免存货累积，或它在美国的工厂出现产能闲置。水野达也说：“如果销量下降，这种产能问题将会增加它的固定成本。”
Toyota is aiming to convince skeptics by launching a wide array of incentives, with Deutsche Bank estimating that Toyota's average incentives will increase to $2,500 in the first half of the fiscal year starting April 1, from $1,450 in the year ending March 31. Still, Toyota's incentives are below the current three-month industry average of $2,650.
丰田打算通过推出各种各样的优惠措施来说服心存疑虑的人。德意志银行估计，4月1日起的财年中的上半年，丰田公司的平均优惠将从3月31日止财年内的 1,450美元提高到2,500美元。但丰田的优惠仍低于当前季度的行业平均水平2,650美元。
The Japanese car maker has sweetened lease deals on many models by increasing the 'residual values' -- the projected value of the car at the end of the lease contract -- and dropping finance rates.
丰田通过增加“残值”并降低汽车贷款利率，让它的很多车型在租赁市场更受欢迎。“残值”指租赁合同到期时对汽车的估值。
New Camrys are on sale for as little as $179 a month. The Lexus luxury division is promoting discounted lease offers as well, which vary by region and dealer. In China, Toyota is also offering a combination of sales incentives, including zero-percent loans, free insurance and fuel and roadside service.
购买新款凯美瑞(Camry)的月供最低只有179美元。丰田旗下豪华车品牌雷克萨斯(Lexus)也在推出租赁费用打折活动，折扣视区域和经销商有所不同。在中国，丰田推出了一个销售激励组合，包括零息贷款、免费的保险和加油与道路救援服务。
Mariko Sanchanta / Yoshio Takahashi
http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20100310/bas104545.asp
