通用汽车大力发展在华业务

GM Presses For Gains In China

通用汽车大力发展在华业务

General Motors Corp. is intensifying its focus on China as it edges closer to a bankruptcy filing in the U.S. and other international units sputter.

通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)在美国濒临申请破产保护的境地，全球其他部门也危机四伏，在这样的情况下，它正在对中国投入更多关注。

The auto maker, until recently the world's biggest by output, has remained a relative powerhouse in China thanks to a pair of partnerships: a joint venture with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. and a minority interest in microminivan maker Liuzhou Wuling Motors Co.

由于与两家中国企业建立了合作关系──一是与上海汽车工业（集团）总公司的合资企业，另一个是持有微型客车厂商柳州五菱汽车有限责任公司的少数股权，相对来说，通用汽车在中国依然是一个高速增长的公司。直到前不久，该公司一直是世界汽车产量最大的生产商。

GM Chief Financial Officer Ray Young last week said that Wuling will eventually begin developing its own brand of ultrainexpensive passenger cars, representing a major step for a brand whose decades-old design primarily caters to Chinese farmers and other rural customers. Wuling's push into more consumer-oriented products also presents a considerable opportunity for GM, which has thus far relied on its mainstream Chevrolet brand as its low-cost car division in emerging markets.

通用汽车首席财务长扬(Ray Young)上周说，五菱最终将开始开发自主品牌的超低价位轿车，标志着这家设计仍处于几十年前的水平、主要迎合中国农民等农村客户的品牌将迈出重要一步。五菱进入以客户为导向的产品也为通用汽车带来了相当大的机会。目前为止，在新兴市场低成本汽车领域，通用汽车一直依赖其主流品牌雪佛兰 (Chevrolet)。

Mr. Young said that even without a legitimate passenger car, Wuling's sales have increased tenfold in recent years and now represent more than a half-million sales annually, or more than all of GM's other brands combined in China. Wuling has a contract to build small Chevrolet vehicles for the Chinese market.

扬说，就算没有正统的轿车，几年来五菱的销量仍增长了10倍，如今的年销量在50万辆以上，超过了通用汽车在华所有其他品牌的总和。五菱与通用汽车签有合同，为中国市场生产小型雪佛兰汽车。

Mr. Young also said the auto maker is looking to expand its GM China operations beyond the nation's borders in order to boost its presence in the entire Asian-Pacific region. GM Asia Pacific President Nick Reilly in an interview Saturday said Wuling's plan to build passenger cars, which hasn't been announced officially, could be the key to making this happen.

扬还说，公司也正在考虑将通用汽车中国业务扩展到中国以外的亚太国家，以扩大在整个亚太地区的业务。通用汽车亚太区总裁雷利(Nick Reilly)上周六接受采访时说，五菱的轿车生产计划有可能是实现这个目标的关键。这一计划尚未正式公布。

Shanghai Automotive also owns a stake in Wuling, and Mr. Reilly said that the three-way venture could be how GM plays a leading role in the government's mandate for its indigenous auto companies to become players on the global scene. 'We'd rather it be us than someone else,' Mr. Reilly said.

上汽也持有五菱的部分股权，雷利说这家三方合资企业可能显示出，在中国政府要求本土汽车厂商参与全球市场的过程中，通用汽车如何扮演了主角。他说，我们宁可主角是我们，而不是别人。

China hosts a complex web of indigenous car companies and outside auto makers. Historically, in order for outsiders to penetrate that market, they had to enter a partnership with a Chinese company. This arrangement has led to better quality and technology for Chinese auto makers and an inside track into the country's rapidly growing market for non-Chinese auto companies, such as GM, Volkswagen AG and Toyota Motor Corp., Mr. Young said.

中国有着一个由本土汽车厂商和外国汽车企业组成的复杂网络。从历史上看，外国厂商要想进入中国市场，就必须与中国企业达成合作协议。扬说，这种安排提升了中国汽车厂商的质量和技术水平，也使外国汽车生产商获得了进入中国快速增长的市场的有利地位，比如通用汽车、大众汽车(Volkswagen AG)和丰田汽车(Toyota Motor Corp.)。

Buzz concerning GM's China operations has faded in recent months as the auto maker has been forced to rely on $15.4 billion in U.S. loans and billions more from other governments to stay afloat. GM's once-thriving Daewoo Motor Sales Corp. operation in South Korea and its businesses in Russia and Latin America have fallen on hard times because of a global downturn in the auto industry. The auto maker is likely to report continued losses in each of these operations when it reports first-quarter earnings in May.

由于通用汽车被迫依赖于美国政府提供的154亿美元贷款和其他国家政府提供的数十亿美元贷款维持运营，近几个月来，有关通用汽车中国业务沸沸扬扬的传言渐渐消退。鉴于全球汽车业的低迷，通用汽车旗下曾经生机勃勃的韩国大宇汽车销售公司(Daewoo Motor Sales Corp.)以及俄罗斯和拉美业务均陷入了困境。通用汽车将于5月份公布一季度收益，届时很可能会公布这些业务均继续下滑。

Given the hardships of GM's other units and the rapid evolution of the Chinese auto industry, GM China is now considered to be among the company's most important ventures and one of the few units in the company that could survive the current economic crisis without major damage. GM's Opel division in Europe and its Latin America operation are being considered for partnership with Fiat SpA and other suitors, and GM Daewoo's once-blistering growth has been stunted by downturns in most of the major markets where its exports are shipped to.

鉴于通用汽车其他部门遭遇的困境，以及中国汽车业的迅速发展，通用汽车中国公司如今被视为公司最重要的企业之一，也是为数不多的几个有望在不遭受严重损失的情况下，渡过当前经济危机的部门之一。通用汽车在欧洲和拉美的欧宝(Opel)部门正考虑与菲亚特(Fiat SpA)等潜在买家达成收购协议，由于主要出口市场的不景气，通用汽车大宇公司曾经的快速增长势头受挫。

While other global operations struggle, GM China, in existence for little more than a decade, is growing. It is adding plant capacity, plans to increase its stake in Wuling from about a third to nearly a half and is seeking other partnerships. The company plans dozens of vehicle introductions over the next five years, and eventually aims to introduce a version of the Chevrolet Volt electric car in the country.

在其他全球业务疲于挣扎之际，成立时间只有10年多的通用汽车中国公司却在增长。它正着手扩大工厂产能，计划将持有的五菱股份从约三分之一增加至近一半，同时也在寻求其他合作机会。公司计划在未来5年中推出十几款车，最终的目标是在中国推出一款雪佛兰Volt电动汽车。

While GM doesn't own a controlling stake in Wuling, underestimating the unit's importance to the Detroit auto maker would be a mistake. Mr. Young said the Wuling operation is GM's 'lowest-cost operation in the world' and it has become the company's global benchmark on production costs.

尽管通用汽车并不控股五菱，但若低估这部分业务对该公司的重要性可谓大错特错。扬说，五菱的业务是通用汽车在全球成本最低的业务，已经成为公司在全球的生产成本基准。

'To win globally, we must win in China,' Mr. Young told a small audience at the Chinese business luncheon in Detroit last week. His comments came as other GM executives and leaders from dozens of other global auto makers were assembled in Shanghai for an annual auto show.

扬上周在底特律的中国业务午餐会上对不多的听众说，要取得全球胜利，我们必须在中国获胜。在他说此番话之际，通用汽车其他高管和数十家全球汽车厂商的领导正聚首上海，参加每年一度的上海车展。

China is expected to become the world's No. 1 vehicle producer this year, surpassing Japan. Mr. Young said he is starting to think China could outmuscle the U.S. this year as the No. 1 market for vehicle sales. GM had been predicting China would surpass the U.S. in 2015, but Chinese sales leapfrogged those in the U.S. in the first quarter.

预计中国今年将超过日本，成为世界第一大汽车生产国。扬说，他开始认为中国今年可能会超越美国，成为世界汽车销量最大的国家。通用汽车一直预测中国将在2015年超过美国，不过一季度中国销量已经超过了美国。

Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090427/ffe151635.asp

全球汽车业天平正倒向中国

China's Influence On Display At Car Show

全球汽车业天平正倒向中国

The Shanghai auto show that opened Monday is demonstrating how the balance of importance in the global car industry is tipping decisively toward China.

周一开幕的上海汽车展充分显示出，全球汽车业的天平正在彻底地倒向中国。

China is the only major auto market still growing despite the global economic slowdown, and in the past few months the number of sales in the country has outstripped sales in the U.S.

中国是唯一在全球经济放缓的形势下仍实现增长的主要汽车市场，而且过去几个月中的汽车销量已经超过了美国。

That's prompting auto makers including Daimler AG, General Motors Corp., Toyota Motor Corp. and Porsche Automobil Holding AG to think of China not as an emerging market but, increasingly, the industry's central battleground.

这促使戴姆勒(Daimler AG)、通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)、丰田汽车(Toyota Motor Corp.)和保时捷(Porsche Automobil Holding AG)等汽车制造商不再将中国作为新兴市场看待，而越来越视其为汽车业的主战场。

'The center of gravity is moving eastward,' Dieter Zetsche, chairman of Daimler, the parent of Mercedes-Benz, told a group of reporters at the auto show.

戴姆勒的董事长蔡澈(Dieter Zetsche)在车展上对记者说，重心正在东移。戴姆勒是梅赛德斯-奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)的母公司。

China's central government is pouring money into expanding the country's network of highways and roads as part of a major economic stimulus package. That spending could sustain auto sales growth for years to come. Chinese car makers, flush with cash, are keen to buy foreign brands and technologies. Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd., for instance, is looking to buy Ford Motor Co.'s Volvo.

作为主要经济刺激计划的一部分，中国中央政府正在投入资金扩大国内的公路网络。这些支出可以维持汽车销售继续保持几年的增长。现金充裕的中国汽车制造商热衷于购买外国的品牌和技术。比如，吉利汽车(Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.)就正在考虑购买福特汽车 Ford Motor Co.旗下的沃尔沃(Volvo)。

The buzz and excitement surrounding this year's Shanghai auto show contrasts with the subdued tone of major car shows in North America and Europe. Nissan Motor Co., for example, skipped this year's Detroit show and plans to be absent from Frankfurt's but is making a splash in Shanghai.

今年上海车展的喧嚣与兴奋同欧美大型车展上的压抑气氛形成了鲜明对比。比如，日产汽车(Nissan Motor Co.)就没有参加今年的底特律车展，并计划缺席法兰克福车展，但却大张旗鼓地参加了上海车展。

Atsuyoshi Hyogo, head of Honda Motor Co.'s China operations, said auto makers at the Shanghai show are witnessing 'a major shift in the battleground within the global automobile market from the U.S. to China.'

本田汽车(Honda Motor Co.)中国业务部门负责人兵后笃芳(Atsuyoshi Hyogo)说，在上海车展上，汽车制造商看到“全球汽车市场的主战场正在从美国转到了中国。”

Nick Reilly, head of GM's Asia-Pacific operations, said China is one of the 'centerpieces' for the Detroit auto maker's future. While GM is racing to avoid bankruptcy in the U.S., its business in China is profitable and has remained largely unaffected by the global slowdown, Mr. Reilly said.

通用汽车亚太业务负责人雷利(Nick Reilly)说，中国是通用未来的业务中心之一。他说，虽然通用汽车在美国正尽力避免破产的命运，但其在华业务仍是盈利的，并且基本上没有受到全球经济放缓的影响。

In many ways, GM's eventual success in revitalizing itself depends on China, he said. For the company to remain a leader in the global industry, GM needs to be an 'industry leader' in China, he said.

雷利说，从许多方面看，通用汽车最终能否成功实现复苏还要取决于中国。他说，通用汽车要保住全球汽车业领导者的地位，就首先需要成为中国的行业领导者。

Several car makers are unveiling new models in Shanghai. Daimler is showcasing a new version of its S-class S65 AMG, a luxury car with a 612-horsepower engine. The car can go from 0 to 100 kilometers (62 miles) an hour in 4.4 seconds. Sports-car manufacturer Porsche on Sunday debuted its four-door Panamera.

一些汽车制造商在上海车展上推出了新车型。戴姆勒展示了奔驰S级S65 AMG新车型，这款豪华轿车装有612马力的发动机。由静止加速到100公里/小时（62英里/小时）仅需4.4秒。跑车制造商保时捷在周日首次推出了四门的Panamera车型。

BMW AG, another German producer, is also having a world premier of a new model of its 7-Series sedan in Shanghai. The BMW 760 Li sedan has a 6-liter, 12-cylinder engine. Ian Robertson, executive board member of BMW, said China will likely be the vehicle's biggest market.

另一家德国生产商宝马汽车(BMW AG)也在上海车展上推出了世界顶级水平的新款7系列轿车。BMW 760 Li轿车装有6升12缸发动机。宝马执行董事罗伯逊(Ian Robertson)说，中国可能成为这款汽车最大的市场。

Toyota, meanwhile, has brought to Shanghai a 'concept' plug-in electric hybrid car, which the company said it might sell in China on a trial basis in the near future.

与此同时，丰田汽车在上海车展上推出了充电式混合动力概念车。丰田汽车说，不久后可能在中国试销这款汽车。

GM executives said the company plans to launch its futuristic hybrid, the Chevy Volt, in China by 2011, shortly after the car goes on sale in the U.S. in late 2010. They said the American auto maker expects China's overall auto market to continue to grow 7% to 8% on average every year over the next five to six years. That's slower than the double-digit growth rates of the Chinese market over the past decade, but makes China one of the rare bright spots looking ahead.

通用汽车高管说，公司计划在2010年年底向美国市场推出其混合动力车雪佛兰Volt后，于2011年在中国推出这款轿车。他们说，通用预计，中国汽车市场在未来五到六年内仍将继续保持7%至8%的平均年增长率。这低于过去十年里中国市场两位数的年增长率，但也足以使中国市场成为未来一个难得的亮点。

Among other signs pointing to China as a main engine of growth for the global industry, Ford has decided to move its Asian-Pacific headquarters to China from Thailand later this year.

此外，还有其他迹象显示中国被视为全球工业增长的一个主要引擎。其中之一就是福特汽车决定今年晚些时候把亚太区总部从泰国迁到中国。

To be sure, more cars are selling in China than the U.S. in part because of a severe auto sales downturn in America since last year. Chinese auto makers also remain largely uncompetitive in the world's advanced economies because of their limited, albeit improving, technological and manufacturing capabilities. The country also suffers from a reputation of being a copycat, with many of its cars closely resembling those from more established foreign rivals.

诚然，造成中国汽车销量超过美国的一个原因是，自去年以来美国汽车销售一直处于严重低迷状态。此外，由于技术和制造能力有限（尽管在不断提高），中国汽车厂商在世界发达经济体中仍没有太大的竞争力。中国还背着模仿抄袭的恶名──很多中国汽车都与老牌外国竞争对手的非常相似。

Honda's Mr. Hyogo noted that Chinese makers will have to stop cutting corners 'in areas such as the environment, safety and intellectual property' to create an industry that deserves to be called a leading global player.

本田汽车的兵后笃芳指出，中国企业必须停止在环境、安全和知识产权等方面的违规行为，以创建一个称得起全球领先的行业。

'The Chinese government must recognize that China is becoming a major global market and lead the country to become an automobile superpower in the truest sense,' Mr. Hyogo said.

他说，中国政府必须认识到中国正在成为一个重要的全球市场，并带领中国成为真正意义上的超级汽车大国。

Meantime, car sales in China are showing surprising resilience. Chinese consumers are proving particularly responsive to government stimulus initiatives to boost spending, such as tax cuts and other subsidies on auto purchases. In March, vehicle sales climbed 5% to a record 1.11 million. In contrast, March car sales fell 30% in the U.S. and 32% in Japan.

与此同时，中国汽车销量显露出出人意料的恢复能力。事实证明，中国消费者尤其响应政府的刺激支出措施，比如减税和其他购车补贴。3月份，汽车销量增长5%，至创纪录的111万辆。相比之下，3月份美国和日本的汽车销量分别下滑30%和32%。

GM's Mr. Reilly said the company is aiming to double its annual sales in China to more than two million over the next five years. The company sold 1,094,561 vehicles in China last year, including sales of micro minivans made with Wuling Automobile Co., one of GM's Chinese partners.

通用汽车的雷利说，公司的目标是在未来5年中，将在华汽车年销量增加一倍，至每年200万辆以上。通用汽车去年在华汽车销量为1,094,561辆，其中包括与中国合作伙伴之一的五菱汽车合资生产的微型客车。

To meet that sales target, GM may soon need to build another assembly plant, company executives said. GM operates five plants in China with its joint-venture partner SAIC Motor Corp. GM also has two additional plants run by a separate, three-way venture it jointly operates with SAIC and Wuling.

通用汽车管理人士说，为实现这一销售目标，公司可能很快需要再建造一个组装厂。在中国，通用汽车与合资伙伴上海汽车集团股份有限公司运营着5个工厂，此外，它还与上汽和五菱三方合资运营着两个工厂。

China's auto industry may soon emerge as a significant export base for foreign car makers such GM and Nissan.

中国的汽车业可能很快会成为通用汽车和日产汽车等外国汽车厂商的重要出口基地。

Mr. Reilly said he believes GM's plants in China, while they are committed to meeting demand within China, also 'will probably generate fairly significant exports,' possibly in the next two to three years, if the global auto markets recover. He noted that the quality of cars GM produces with its joint-venture partners in China is roughly on par with that of vehicles it makes in North America and Europe.

雷利说，他认为通用汽车中国工厂在致力于满足中国国内需求的同时，如果全球汽车市场复苏的话，它还可能会产生相当大的出口，或许就在未来的两、三年。他说，通用汽车在华合资企业生产的汽车质量与在北美和欧洲生产的汽车质量大体一致。

Asked why Daimler is skipping the Tokyo auto show later this year but is staging a big presence in Shanghai, Mr. Zetsche pointed to the fact that sales of Mercedes-Benz cars in China have recently surpassed those in Japan.

当被问及戴姆勒为何不参加今年晚些时候的东京车展，却在上海车展上大举亮相时，蔡澈指出这样一个事实：奔驰汽车在华销量最近超过了日本销量。

'Here, we are likely to leverage the opportunities, which are building,' the German executive said.

这位德国高管说，在中国，我们可能会利用这里越来越多的机会。

Norihiko Shirouzu / Gordon Fairclough

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090421/chw121436.asp

钢铁业困境加剧 可能出现整合和降价

Steel Woes Signal Shakeout, Price Cuts

钢铁业困境加剧 可能出现整合和降价

Weak demand is likely to lead to increased losses in the world steel industry next quarter, which could prompt consolidation, the shakeout of marginal players and lower prices, much of the industry now predicts.

钢铁业许多人士现在预计，由于需求疲软，世界钢铁行业下个季度亏损可能加大，从而有可能促使该行业发生整合，小企业被挤出市场，并导致市场价格走低。

'The demand for steel is virtually nonexistent,' says Dan DiMicco, CEO of steelmaker Nucor Corp., which reported a $189.6 million loss and said it expected a wider loss in the second quarter.

钢铁企业Nucor Corp.首席执行长迪米科(Dan DiMicco)说，现在基本上不存在钢材需求。该公司公布一季度出现1.896亿美元亏损，并预计二季度将发生更大亏损。

Steelmakers were hoping the first quarter would be its worst, in terms of losses, for 2009. Early signs that the housing market would pick up, that stimulus spending for projects such as bridges would boost consumption, and that an auto bailout would shore up a key steel customer were taken as clues that the steel market was headed for a turnaround.

钢铁企业本来希望，一季度的亏损将是2009年最严重的。初步迹象显示，住房市场会回升，用于桥梁建设等项目的刺激性开支将提升钢材消耗，一项汽车业救助计划将能提振一家主要钢材用户。基于这一看法，人们似乎可以认为钢材市场即将走向好转。

Moreover, other commodities, including copper, have begun showing signs of life after nearly five months of plummeting demand. Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold Inc., the largest copper producer in the U.S., said it expects copper prices to rise compared to the first three months of this year due in part to lower world inventories.

此外，包括铜在内的其他大宗商品在经历接近5个月的需求大跌之后已显示出复苏迹象。美国最大的铜生产商Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold Inc.称，它预计铜价将较今年头3个月有所上升，部分原因是全球铜库存较低。

Prices of nickel, used in appliances and stainless steel, and lead used in electrodes and machinery also appear to be firming. Those commodities are showing improvement mostly because supply and demand are beginning to match.

镍和铅的价格似乎也在企稳。镍用于制造家电和生产不锈钢材料，铅用于电极材料和制造机械设备。这些大宗商品之所以显示出好转迹象，主要是因为供需水平开始匹配。

To be sure, the price of all these commodities is much lower, often in the range of 50%, when compared to this time last year.

当然，所有这些大宗商品的价格还都非常低，往往只相当于去年同期50%左右的水平。

'As we have progressed from September 2008 to March 2009, we have seen business and market conditions worsen each succeeding month,' Charlotte, N.C.-based Nucor said in a statement. 'Entering the second quarter of 2009, both the U.S. economy and steel market conditions have continued to deteriorate.'

Nucor在一份声明中说，在2008年9月到2009年3月期间，我们看到商业和市场环境逐月恶化。进入2009年二季度之后，美国经济和钢材市场的形势在继续恶化。

Global crude-steel production fell in March in every major market, including China, which had increased production earlier in the year. The biggest drop was felt in North America, where production fell 52%, while Europe production fell 44%.

今年3月，全球各主要市场的粗钢产量都在下降。中国市场也不例外，今年早些时候，中国的产量有所增加。下跌最大的在北美，跌幅达52%。欧洲的跌幅是44%。

Nearly every major Chinese steelmaker has predicted losses for April, said Zhang Xiaogang, vice-chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association. Those losses are expected to continue, he said Tuesday.

中国钢铁工业协会(China Iron and Steel Association)副会长张晓刚说，中国几乎每家大钢厂都预计4月份将发生亏损。周二他说，这些损失预计将会继续。

The problem is that steelmakers ramped up production in anticipation of higher demand from new construction and investment through the Chinese stimulus package. But those projects take a while to get going, leaving the industry with too much, too soon.

问题是，钢铁企业认为，中国的经济刺激计划带来的新的建设和投资项目将推高钢材需求，因此它们纷纷加紧生产。但是，这些项目要经过一段时间才会落实，钢铁业显得行动太早、做得太多。

If demand doesn't pick up soon, the industry will have to consolidate, with marginal players being bought out or closing. Mr. Zhang indicated such consolidation is critical if the steel industry wants to obtain pricing power with their suppliers, mainly iron-ore producers.

如果需求不能迅速回升，钢铁业将不得不进行整合，一些小企业将被买断或关闭。张晓刚认为，如果钢铁业希望得到针对供应商──主要是铁矿石企业──的定价权，这样的整合将至关重要。

Across Europe, steelmakers don't see an upturn anytime soon, Europe's steel association, Eurofer, said Thursday.

欧洲钢铁工业联盟Eurofer周四说，在整个欧洲，钢铁企业还没出现迅速好转的迹象。

'Orders intakes at EU steel mills are expected to be at unprecedented low levels for the time being,' Eurofer said. Steel consumption in the first half of this year is expected to fall 40% to 45% compared with last year.

Eurofer说，预计欧盟钢铁厂这段时间收到的订单将降到从未有过的低水平。今年上半年，钢材消耗量预计将较去年下降40%-45%。

In the U.S., the deepening woes of the automakers translate into far fewer orders for steel.

在美国，汽车业困境加剧意味着钢材订单大大减少。

General Motors Corp. is expected to idle most of its plants this summer for two months -- one of the longest hiatuses ever. That means big automotive suppliers AK Steel Holding Corp., U.S. Steel Corp. and ArcelorMittal likely will see further erosion in steel sales.

预计通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)今年夏天将把大部分工厂闲置两个月，这将是通用汽车历史上历时最长的停产之一。这意味着，AK Steel Holding Corp.、U.S. Steel Corp.和安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)等大型汽车业供应商的钢材销售将进一步受到侵蚀。

This week, AK Steel said it believed the worst was behind it. James L. Wainscott, chairman, president and CEO, said its first quarter $100 million loss would be narrowed to $50 million in the second quarter and that the West Chester, Ohio-based integrated steelmaker could swing to a profit by year end.

AK Steel本周表示，它相信最糟糕的时候已经过去。该公司董事长、总裁兼首席执行长威斯科特(James L. Wainscott)称，公司一季度1亿美元的亏损到二季度将收窄到5,000万美元，到年底，公司将能扭亏为盈。

He further noted that orders had begun edging up slightly in March, even from the most troubled sectors, automotive and construction.

他进一步指出，3月份的订单已开始小幅上升，即使是来自情况最糟糕的汽车业和建筑业的订单也是如此。

Nucor's Mr. DiMicco said that the steel business is so weak that more price cuts are possible because of building inventory and weak demand.

Nucor的迪米科说，钢材业务实在太疲软，由于库存还在增加且需求低迷，有可能会进一步降价。

He also said that Nucor's pessimistic outlook, which is more so than other steelmakers', is more realistic. 'We haven't hit a bottom yet,' he said. 'This is a very realistic view of the world ahead of us.'

他说，Nucor比其他钢铁企业更悲观的预期实际上更现实。他说，我们尚未触底。对我们前面的世界，这是一个非常现实的展望。

Robert Guy Matthews

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090424/ffe143021.asp

油价下跌为何未能缓解美国经济困境？

Oil Can't Soothe Troubled Waters

油价下跌为何未能缓解美国经济困境？

Expensive oil burned the U.S. economy. So why isn't cheaper oil more soothing?

高昂的油价“烧焦”了美国经济。那现在油价便宜了，为什么也没能对经济起到更好的缓解作用呢？

The U.S. burned 138 billion gallons of gasoline last year, each costing an average $3.33. The average is less than $2 so far this year, implying an annualized saving of $195 billion, or 1.4% of gross domestic product. Cheaper utility bills and lower inflation are extra benefits.

美国去年全年消耗了1,380亿加仑汽油，每加仑平均价格为3.33美元。今年迄今的汽油均价不到2美元，也就是说折合年率节省了1,950亿美元，占国内生产总值(GDP)的1.4%。而水电账单降低、通胀减弱更是油价下跌带来的额外好处。

Yet Americans are driving fewer miles from a year earlier, and consumer spending remains weak.

然而美国人的行车里程数却较上年同期出现下降，消费开支也仍然疲弱。

There are several reasons why gasoline's 'stimulus check' of $639 per American doesn't do more. One is timing: It takes only a second to burn your hand but much longer for it to heal. Fixing Detroit, for example, will take years.

油价的下跌相当于给每个美国人派发了639美元的“刺激支票”，然而却未能发挥更大作用，这种情况缘于几个方面的原因。其一是时间：你的手烧伤只需要一秒，但愈合的时间要长得多。举例来说，修复底特律的汽车行业就得用很多年。

Higher fuel prices also added an extra burden to homeowners at a critical time for them and their lending banks, especially those in suburban developments far from city-center workplaces.

在房主以及贷款给他们的银行处于危急关头之时，高油价也给房主造成了额外的负担，尤其是住在市郊开发区、远离市中心工作地点的房主。

Rising unemployment means fewer commuters, so the benefit of lower fuel costs is largely lost on them anyway. The attendant financial crisis also means many drivers' ability to pay fuel bills with their credit cards has been curtailed. Meanwhile, memories of the oil-price spike will linger.

失业率高涨意味着每天上下班通勤的人少了，因此这些人基本上也就享受不到油价下跌的好处。随之而来的金融危机还意味着许多开车人无法以信用卡支付油费。与此同时，人们对油价疯涨的时候还记忆犹新。

As with other stimulus payments, therefore, the fear generated by the broader economic dislocation means fuel savings will be largely saved rather than spent. In the fourth quarter, Americans squirreled away money at an annualized rate of $337 billion -- little wonder, given household net worth fell $11.2 trillion last year. Against wealth destruction of that magnitude, cheaper gasoline offers some help but can't kick-start the economy.

这样一来，因为整体经济混乱而引发的担忧就意味着，人们会将在燃料方面省下来的钱存起来，而不会花出去，就跟其他一些经济刺激款项一样。去年第四季度，美国人的储蓄折合年率为3,370亿美元－－这没什么可惊讶的，考虑到去年美国家庭财产净值缩水了11.2万亿美元。面对如此程度的财产损失，油价下跌对经济有所帮助，但光靠它还是无力回天。

Liam Denning

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090422/hrd094152.asp

汽车商借网络吸引中国买车人

Auto Makers Flock to Web to Woo Chinese Buyers

汽车商借网络吸引中国买车人

Global auto makers think the Internet is the way into the hearts of a new generation of Chinese car enthusiasts.

全球汽车生产商认为，互联网是赢得中国新一代爱车人“芳心”的途径。

Both foreign and domestic auto makers here are pouring ad money into online ventures, even as their overall spending remains flat. Market-tracking firm iResearch expects outlays for online auto marketing to reach 1.75 billion yuan, or roughly $256 million, this year, up from 1.38 billion yuan in 2008.

在中国，就在国内外汽车生产商整体支出持平之际，它们却在网络广告上投入大把大把的钱。市场追踪公司艾瑞咨询(iResearch)预计，今年网络汽车营销支出将达人民币17.5亿元（约合2.56亿美元），较2008年的人民币13.8亿元有所上升。

China's biggest Web-site operators are jockeying to meet the demand, with several offering online games or other features designed to encourage visitors to click on auto-related ads. One popular game, from social-networking site Kaixin001, lets users 'park' cars in virtual garages, earnings points they can use to buy more cars. BMW, Ford Motor's Volvo brand and China's Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. have sponsored cars featured in the game since it started accepting ads in December.

中国大型网站运营商都在花样翻新来满足汽车厂商的需求，有数家公司还提供网络游戏或其他功能，意在鼓励网站访问者点击汽车相关广告。社交网站开心网上的一个热门游戏让用户可以在虚拟的车库里停车，进而获得积分买更多的车。自去年12月开心网开始接广告以来，宝马(BMW)、福特汽车(Ford Motor)旗下的沃尔沃(Volvo)品牌和上海汽车工业（集团）总公司一直为游戏中出现的汽车提供赞助。

'It's the first time to have a chance to show our dynamic style online,' said Terry Johnsson, vice president of Shanghai General Motors Co., a joint venture of SAIC and General Motors of the U.S. that advertises its Buick model on the game. 'We will definitely do more on social-networking sites,' he said. Shanghai GM has allocated 10% of its overall media budget to the Internet in 2009, almost double 2007's level, he added.

上海通用汽车副总裁蒋泰瑞 (Terry Johnsson)说，这是我们首次有机会在网上展示自己活力四射的风格。上海通用是上汽和通用汽车(General Motors)的合资企业，在开心网的游戏中为旗下的别克车做广告。蒋泰瑞说，我们肯定会在社交网站上投入更多。他还说，上海通用已经把2009年媒体总预算的10%拨给了互联网，几乎比2007年多了一倍。

Auto makers have their eyes on one of the world's few bright spots for expansion. Auto sales in China last year rose 6.7%, a slowdown from double-digit growth since 1999, and sales are expected to rise a still-slower 5% this year, according to official state media. But that's still growth.

汽车生产商把目光聚焦在世界上屈指可数的几个扩张亮点之一。据官方国有媒体报导，去年中国汽车销量增长6.7%，较1999年以来的两位数增速有所放缓，预计今年销量增长更慢，为5%。不过仍是在增长。

Auto makers are also encouraged by China's stimulus efforts. In January, China slashed the purchase tax on small-engine passenger cars, seeking to boost sales of fuel-efficient vehicles, especially in the countryside. In March, the central government unveiled details of a plan that would give rural car buyers a subsidy of about 10% on their vehicle purchases.

汽车生产商还因中国的刺激措施而受到了鼓舞。1月份，中国大幅下调小排量轿车的购置税，希望藉此提振节能型汽车的销售，特别是在农村地区的销售。3月份，中央政府公布了计划细节，向农村购车者补助购车费用的约10%。

Most first-time car buyers in China rely on advice from family members and friends. But many of those buyers are among the first in their families to own cars. That makes the Internet an important source of information for potential car buyers.

中国大部分首次购车者都依赖家人或朋友的建议。不过，其中很多人都是家族里第一批买车的人。这就使互联网成了潜在购车者的一个重要信息来源。

Autohome.com, one of China's biggest auto sites, says most of its visitors plan to buy a car within three to six months. 'When the economy is good, auto companies will simply put up display advertising' on general-interest Web sites, says Qin Zhi, chief executive of Autohome, which is controlled by Australian telecommunications operator Telstra. 'But now, they want more follow-up marketing.' Autohome's ad revenue last year totaled 50 million yuan, Mr. Qin said.

中国最大的汽车网站之一汽车之家(Autohome)表示，网站的大部分访问者都计划在3-6个月内买车。该网站首席执行长秦志（音）说，经济形势好的时候，汽车厂商只是在大众网站上做展示广告；但现在，他们希望更多的后续营销。他说，去年汽车之家网站的广告收入为人民币5,000万元。汽车之家由澳大利亚电信(Telstra)控股。

Still, some general-interest sites have seen their auto advertising jump. Video-sharing site Youku.com says its auto revenue in the first quarter was up 17% from the fourth quarter. The company says it expects auto-revenue growth to top 50% this year.

尽管如此，一些大众网站的汽车广告仍大幅增长。视频分享网站优酷网(Youku)说，第一季度汽车广告收入较去年第四季度增长17%。公司表示，预计今年汽车广告收入将增长50%。

Television is still the auto makers' preferred advertising method, particularly for high-end brands. But Victor Koo, Youku.com's CEO, says that advertising fees for Chinese video sites are a tenth of a TV ad's price and more cost-effective.

电视仍是汽车生产商青睐的广告方式，对高端品牌尤其如此。不过，优酷网首席执行长古永锵(Victor Koo)说，中国视频网站的广告费只有电视广告价格的十分之一，更加划算。

Nissan Motor Co., which has one of the hottest brands in the Chinese market, has reduced its overall marketing budget this year because of the global downturn, says Toshimitsu Irie, the company's spokesman in Beijing. Nissan declined to discuss specific spending plans, but it is a client of major Chinese Web portals such as Sohu and Sina, which are run by Sohu.com Inc. and Sina.com Inc., respectively, as well as auto sites Xcar and Cheshi.

日产汽车(Nissan Motor Co.)的一款汽车是中国市场上最热销的品牌之一。公司驻北京发言人Toshimitsu Irie说，由于全球放缓，该公司已经减少了今年整体营销预算。日产拒绝透露具体的支出计划，不过它是搜狐和新浪等中国大型门户网站的客户，也是汽车网站爱卡汽车网(Xcar)和网上车市(Cheshi)的客户。

Juliet Ye

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090409/ffe145100.asp

汽车业困境连累了谁

每个行动都会带来预期之外的影响。即便人们对旨在解决美国汽车业沉疴的计划冠以最崇高的意图，这个计划仍可能给市场或公众带来这样那样的预料不到的后果。

毕竟，当雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers Holdings)去年9月破产时，受影响的并不只是信用违约互换市场（在这方面最终影响到了美国国际集团(AIG)），还有货币市场基金。雷曼兄弟在一定程度上造成了货币基金Reserve Primary Fund的基金单位净值跌破1美元。

而对通用汽车(General Motors)和克莱斯勒(Chrysler)来说，政府认为它们需要大力度重组的计划明显影响到了公司员工、管理层（当然是那些还在留任的）、经销商、股东、债券持有人和所有其他与两家公司有利益关系的人。这些是明摆着的。但还有其他一些人可能以种种不同方式受到影响，有的是直接影响，有的则只是暂时影响。

以下让我们作个快速汇总：

汽车供应商：这是最直接受到通用和克莱斯勒问题影响的一类公司。据瑞银证券(UBS Securities)分析师兰更(Colin Langan)估计，有21%的供应商公布，“到明年业务维持不下去的可能性超过50%”，而在那些业务依赖这些底特律汽车商的供应商中，作出这种预测的公司比例更高达43%。

这次调查是2月中旬进行的，当时瑞银调查了164家供应商，他们发现，通用和克莱斯勒向供应商压价的力度最大，相比而言福特汽车(Ford)则没那么咄咄逼人。问题是，据瑞银估计，平均而言经季节调整后折合成年率的汽车销量要达到1,020万辆，供应商才能实现生产的盈亏平衡。瑞银预计2009年的销量只有930万。而对底特律汽车厂商的供应量较大的供应商盈亏平衡点更高。

福特：别忘了，除了通用和克莱斯勒，美国还有一家大汽车厂商，那就是福特，虽然这两天大家很少提到它。福特股价下跌10美分至每股2.74美元，通用下跌了1.11美元，但Egan-Jones Ratings评级部门联合主管艾根(Sean Egan)说，如果其他两家大车商的困境给供应商造成相当程度的影响，那么，福特也会受到影响。其他汽车厂商，比如本田(Honda)和丰田(Toyota)可能也会因为供应商的问题而受冲击。

汽车租赁公司：汽车租赁业巨头受到市场变动的重击。Hertz Global Holdings跌19%， Dollar Thrifty Auto跌13.7%，Avis Budget Group跌12.6%。以Hertz为例，监管文件显示，Hertz整个车队去年有28%的车辆购自通用。Hertz表示，这些汽车厂商中倘若有哪家破产，将会影响干扰公司的车辆供应，进而增加新车平均成本，并影响公司利用资产支持融资工具进行贷款的能力。而且，通用还欠Hertz回售汽车的款项，根据年报，Hertz向制造商回售汽车的应收帐款规模最大的就是通用，总额接近2.5亿美元。而如果汽车商发生破产，则Hertz将和其他债主一样排队等待清偿。

地区性银行和其他地区性产业：艾根说，总部位于底特律的Comerica和其他地区性银行如Keybanc“会受到影响，因为它们有贷款给汽车制造商、供应商和经销商。”这些银行还向该地区其他企业发放了贷款，而如果俄亥俄和密歇根等地工人被裁员、就业前景恶化，那些企业也同样会受到影响。

保险公司：这方面更多的是猜测。如果有保险公司持有通用的债券，而且并未按盯住市价的原则入帐，而是被迫将其作为受重大事件（比如重组）影响的特殊项目处理，则可能导致被迫减值，进而给这些公司带来损失。不过，KDP Investment Advisors分析师潘尼曼(Kip Penniman)说，他预计，几年前通用债券评级降至垃圾级后，许多在高价位购买通用债券的机构可能已经把它们抛售了。他说，正是因为这个原因，我们这几年才会看到这么大的抛售压力，这些债券的持有人已经彻底换掉了。”

金融服务业：奥巴马政府正在对美国主要金融机构进行压力测试。尽管政府对AIG的处理或许表明银行业会得到支持，不过，这次汽车业的情况表明，将有更多企业高层卷铺盖走人。实际上，对通用的计划可能是场预演，其他陷入困境的机构可能也会接到类似的处置计划。

企业管理人士：随着通用首席执行长瓦格纳(Rick Wagoner)按总统的要求下台走人，一些人想知道，此举是否意味着政府将由此开始插手私有企业（尽管通用从很多方面很像是政府企业）的事务。纽约投行Bradley Woods & Co.总裁瑞普(Dan Ripp)说，“既然政府可以解雇一位经验丰富（即便算不上有才能）的管理人士、承担起公司本身的职责（即为汽车保修提供担保），为什么还要向美国的行业投钱呢？现在还有人投资通用或买通用的车吗？其他行业的头面人物现在一定吓得腿肚子直抖吧。”

David Gaffen

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090331/fea164720.asp

美国汽车业救助方案贵在公平

The End Of The Road Is Nigh

美国汽车业救助方案贵在公平

Rick Wagoner can take some comfort in his ouster from the top job at General Motors. At least there is now no possibility he will preside over the bankruptcy of a 20th-century American icon.

被迫卸去通用汽车公司(General Motors)首席执行长一职的瓦格纳(Rick Wagoner)应能得到些许安慰。因为这家身为20世纪美国象征的企业至少不会在他任内宣布破产了。

For despite the 60-day stay of execution granted to GM by the U.S. administration, a Chapter 11 filing remains a distinct possibility, as the Auto Task Force stated explicitly on Monday. The sheer scale of the auto maker's balance sheet is the central problem.

尽管美国政府给了通用汽车60天暂缓申请破产的宽限期，但政府的汽车业专责小组周一明确表示，该公司仍存在申请破产的明确可能。这家汽车生产商资产负债表的庞大规模是问题的核心所在。

John Murphy, analyst at Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch, calculates obligations including those to workers amount to $62 billion, 35 times GM's market capitalization.

据美林(Merrill Lynch)分析师墨菲(John Murphy)计算，通用汽车包括拖欠工人钱款在内的债务额达620亿美元，相当于其市值的35倍。

Even assuming that stakeholder concessions cut that burden in half, loans already provided by various governments and those GM has requested would push it back toward the current level.

即使假定通用汽车的各利益相关方作出让步可以使该公司的债务额减少一半，但如果算上政府已向通用提供的各项贷款以及该公司要求提供的贷款额，这家公司的债务额又会回升至原有水平。

Whether or not the Auto Task Force's aggressive language in its rejection of GM's and Chrysler's survival plans forces stakeholders to reach a viable agreement outside court, this is a welcome development on several fronts.

无论汽车业专责小组在拒绝接受通用和克莱斯勒扭亏计划时的强硬言论能否迫使两公司的利益相关方与两家公司达成可行的庭外和解协议，从几个方面看，这一表态本身还是值得欢迎的。

The notion that Detroit is too big to fail needed to be qualified. The explicit rejection of Chrysler's ability to go it alone also is useful.

那种认为美国汽车业三巨头因规模太大而不能破产的想法未必站得住脚了。明确拒绝克莱斯勒想继续单干的想法也有积极意义。

This was demonstrated by the company rushing out an upbeat statement on the chances of a partnership with Italy's Fiat -- so upbeat Chrysler quickly issued a clarification toning it down.

这种积极意义体现在克莱斯勒急忙抛出它很有可能与意大利菲亚特公司(Fiat)结成合作伙伴的声明上。这份声明的内容太过乐观了，以致于该公司又不得不迅速发文以淡化声明的乐观情绪。

Closing Chrysler down instead would remove roughly 14% of U.S. light-vehicle manufacturing capacity, taking it to roughly 14.5 million vehicles. That is still a lot higher than the 10 million or so that might be sold this year, including imports, but much closer to what might be sustainable in the medium term.

让克莱斯勒关门将使美国轻型车生产能力减少约14%，至1,450万辆左右。虽然这仍比美国轻型车市场今年1,000万辆（包括进口车）的预计销量高许多，但已朝市场中期内可以持续的水平大大迈进了一步。

Toward the end of President Barack Obama's speech on Monday, he also announced potential further support to help bolster demand. A program to encourage drivers to trade in older cars for more efficient new ones would be in keeping with the administration's desire to cut oil consumption.

但奥巴马总统在周一讲话接近尾声时还是宣布，政府有可能进一步出台措施以支撑汽车需求。一项鼓励驾车者以旧车折价换购节能型新车的计划符合奥巴马政府减少美国石油消费量的愿望。

Barclays Capital analyst Brian Johnson estimates that, assuming half of the country's 250 million vehicles are more than eight years old, encouraging drivers to trade in just 2% of those older cars would equate to new sales of 2.5 million vehicles.

Barclays Capital分析师约翰逊(Brian Johnson)估计，假设美国2.5亿辆现有汽车中有一半的车龄超过八年，只需鼓励驾车人将这些旧车中的2%折价换购成新车，就能创造250万辆的新车销售量。

Such a program would have the added benefit of spreading the aid more fairly. It would help the industry across the board, including Ford Motor, which has managed to avoid the need for federal aid.

这种以旧换新项目还具有更公平分配政府汽车业救助资金的效用。它能使汽车工业普遍受益，包括福特汽车公司(Ford Motor)，后者一直努力避免向联邦政府提出救助要求。

More equitable measures are important, given the Auto Task Force's apparent desire to recast GM as a leader in fuel efficiency after restructuring. Airlines used Chapter 11 to slash costs and obligations earlier this decade, which was crucial to their coping with last year's oil-price spike.

鉴于汽车业专责小组显然希望将重组后的通用汽车重塑为提高汽车燃油使用效率的先锋，确保汽车业救助计划能够更加公平是很重要的。美国航空业本世纪初借助破产保护削减了成本和债务，这对它们去年能够经受住油价大幅上扬的考验起了至关重要的作用。

It is crucial that Ford doesn't get 'punished' for its better management in the longer term through the government creating a leaner competitor freed from the mistakes of its past.

同样至关重要的是，不能让福特汽车公司因经营较为出色而受到“惩罚”，因为通用汽车在政府帮它卸去历史包袱后将能“轻装上阵”，与福特汽车竞争。

Liam Denning

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090331/hrd120806.asp

陷入泥潭的日本汽车业

Japan Autos Hit Pothole

陷入泥潭的日本汽车业

In the nation that gave the world the Honda Accord and Toyota Prius, cars are losing their appeal.

在向世界提供了本田雅阁和丰田普锐斯等车型的日本，轿车的吸引力正在消失。

This loss of appetite didn't begin with the economic slump. Instead a combination of high taxes, bureaucratic hurdles and changing tastes has set in place a secular decline in the world's third-largest auto market.

这种兴趣的下降并非始于经济低迷之时。高税率、政府部门的障碍和口味的改变导致了这个全球第三大汽车市场的长期下滑。

So while Americans might start buying cars again one day, some of Japan's consumers may have given up for good.

因此尽管美国人有朝一日可能会再次开始购买轿车，但部分日本消费者可能已经永远彻底了买车的想法。

On Tuesday, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association projected domestic sales to drop to 4.3 million units in the coming fiscal year. This would be the lowest volume of sales in just over three decades, and the fourth consecutive year of declines.

日本汽车工业协会周二预测，下一财年日本国内的汽车销量将降至430万辆。这将是过去30多年来最低的销售量，也是连续第四年出现下降。

If JAMA's forecast is right, by the end of March 2010 Japan's auto market will have shrunk by more than 23% in four years.

如果日本汽车工业协会的预测是正确的，到2010年3月底时，日本汽车市场将在4年里缩水23%以上。

Car companies are worried. Japan is still Toyota's No. 1 market by revenue; for Honda, it is No. 2.

汽车公司对此忧心忡忡。日本仍是丰田汽车收入最高的市场，是本田汽车收入第二高的市场。

So they are demanding change. Taxes, they say, are the biggest deterrent for buyers. JAMA says the tax burden on a car owner -- about $8,100 -- is 21 times that of the U.S., twice that of France, and one-half more than Germany.

因此它们要求做出改变。它们称，车税负担是阻碍买家的最大因素。日本汽车工业协会说，购车者需要纳税约8,100美元，这个数字是美国的21倍，法国的两倍，比德国高出约50%。

Add to this a further $700 for inspections every two years, which can lead to expensive parts replacements, and annual ones, albeit less expensive ones, for cars more than 10 years old.

除此之外，还有每两年700美元的检查费，这可能导致昂贵的零部件更换；而对使用10年以上的轿车则每年检查一次，只不过费用低一些而已。

The auto lobby says it won't challenge the inspection regime or the cost of getting a driver's license -- upward of $2,000 for lessons.

这家汽车游说组织说，它不会挑战这种检查体制或是获得驾照的成本。为获得驾照可能要花费2,000美元参加培训。

It knows any challenge will be futile as both are closely linked to the police and transport departments, providing cushy postretirement jobs for bureaucrats.

它知道任何挑战都将是徒劳的，因为这两项都同警察和运输部门关系密切，为政府部门提供了轻松赚钱的机会。

But the lobby is considering asking for other changes, including a tax break for scrapping old, gas-guzzling cars, which should help stimulate demand.

但日本汽车工业协会正考虑要求做出其它改变，如对耗油量大的老旧车提供税收优惠，这会有助于刺激需求。

Still, it can't do much about consumer tastes.

不过，在消费者的口味上，它可能无能为力。

Cars are losing their cache, especially with younger Japanese. The number of driving-school graduates has fallen 16% over the past decade, as consumers choose to spend their money elsewhere.

轿车已经风光不再，在年轻的日本人心中就更是如此。由于消费者将钱花到了其它地方，过去10年里，驾校的毕业生数量减少了16%。

Even those buying cars are choosing cheaper ones. These minicars -- with engines of 660cc or less -- yield lower profits for car companies.

即使购车者也选择购买更廉价的轿车。那些排量不到660cc的微型轿车不能为汽车公司创造多少利润。

The smaller cars are expected to account for as much as 40% of total car sales in the year ahead.

预计在今后一年里，预计小排量轿车最高将占到全部轿车销售量的40%。

This slump may never end.

这种低迷景象可能还远未结束。

James Simms

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090326/hrd120832.asp

一款福特车 销遍全世界

One Ford for the Whole World

一款福特车 销遍全世界

America is the Galapagos Islands of automobiles. We have cars roaming our highways like no other vehicles on earth. Car makers want to change this, but it won't be easy.

美国就像汽车工业的一个孤岛。我们生产的汽车在美国高速公路上徜徉，好像这里就是它们的全部世界了。汽车制造商希望改变这一状况，但这并不容易。

Consider the Ford Focus. Ford Motor Co. sells a compact car called the Focus in Europe, and a very similar-sized car in the U.S. under the same name. If you showed these cars to most consumers -- car geeks don't count -- they wouldn't be able to tell the difference between them. But they aren't the same car. In fact, even though they look alike, there's very little in common between the current European Focus and the U.S. Focus, says Derrick Kuzak, head of Ford's world-wide product development. Under the skin, they might as well have been made by two different companies.

以福特福克斯(Ford Focus)为例。福特汽车公司(Ford Motor Co.)在欧洲销售的一款小型汽车名为福克斯，而在美国销售的一款大小类似的车型也叫同样的名字。如果把这两款汽车拿给大多数消费者看（汽车发烧友除外），没人可以看出区别，但事实上这两款车并不相同。福特汽车负责全球产品开发的主管德里克·库扎克(Derrick Kuzak)说，尽管看上去一样，但欧洲版福克斯和美国版福克斯的相同点却很少。在相同的外表下，这两款车的区别就像分别出产自两家不同的公司。

Next year, Ford will launch a new Focus in the U.S. that will have 80% of its parts in common with the European version. This car and a smaller model called the Fiesta, also due out next year, are among the first fruits of a costly and urgent effort overseen by Mr. Kuzak to develop cars that can be engineered once and sold around the world in more or less the same form -- a strategy Japanese and European auto makers have pursued successfully for years.

明年，福特汽车将在美国市场发布新款福克斯，新版美国福克斯将会有80%的零部件与欧洲版通用。另一款比福克斯还小的车型也将在明年发布，名字为嘉年华(Fiesta)。福克斯和嘉年华是库扎克负责项目的第一批成果。福特汽车这个投入大量资金且急于见效的项目希望开发出可以在全世界范围销售的基本车型。这种策略已经被日本和欧洲的汽车制造商成功实施了多年。

So why is the forthcoming U.S. Focus going to be only 80% identical to the European Focus? Why not 100%? A big part of the answer is government rules that haven't evolved to reflect the realities of a global car market.

但是为什么即将发布的新版美国福克斯只能和欧洲版共享80%的零部件？为什么不是100%？原因是政府的规定还不能适应全球统一市场的现实。

Converging Models

From a consumer point of view, the U.S. and European car markets are converging, driven in part by tougher U.S. fuel-efficiency standards.

从一个消费者的角度看，美国和欧洲的汽车市场正在趋于一致，这部分是因为美国实施了更严格的燃油效率标准。

President George W. Bush gave a big boost to this convergence in 2007 when he signed a law requiring car makers to boost the average fuel economy of their U.S. car fleets to 35 miles per gallon by 2020 from the 27.5 mpg standard in effect for more than 30 years. President Barack Obama and his administration have signaled they may push for an even higher effective fuel-economy target as a result of an effort to craft a national standard for vehicle carbon-dioxide emissions.

2007年美国总统布什签署了一项法案，要求汽车制造商在2020年之前将在美销售汽车的平均油耗降低到35英里/加仑，取代已经实行了30多年的27.5英里/加仑这一标准，这对美欧汽车市场趋同起了很大推动作用。现任总统奥巴马以及他的政府已经发出信号，为了制定机动车二氧化碳排放量的全国标准，在燃油效率方面有可能推行更高的目标。

For Detroit's struggling car makers, this isn't as terrible as it might appear. Reaching those fuel-efficiency levels will mean shifting Americans over time into cars that are smaller, more technically sophisticated and more likely to be propelled by four-cylinder engines than big V-8s.

对于底特律处于困境的汽车制造商来说，这些消息并不像看起来那么可怕。达到这些燃油效率标准将意味着让美国人坐回体积更小、技术更精密汽车，并且汽车很可能由一台4缸引擎驱动，而不是大型的V8引擎。

It just so happens these are the very cars General Motors Corp. and Ford sell in Europe and in many Asian countries today. Designing 'world cars' that can achieve global economies of scale is the auto industry's Holy Grail. Bringing America into the mainstream of the world auto market would put that prize within reach for the two largest U.S. auto makers.

其实这类汽车正是通用汽车和福特汽车在欧洲和许多亚洲国家销售的车型。设计一款能在全球范围内实现规模效益的“世界通用汽车”是汽车工业长久以来的目标。对美国最大的两家汽车制造商来说，将美国引入世界汽车市场的主流可以使自己离这个目标更近些。

Chrysler LLC could benefit, too, because a Europeanized American car market would buoy its strategy of selling cars co-designed with Italian auto maker Fiat SpA, should that alliance come to pass.

克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)也同样可以从中受益。如果克莱斯勒与菲亚特(Fiat SpA)的结盟能通过审批，那么美国汽车市场的欧洲化将有利于克莱斯勒销售它与菲亚特联合设计的汽车。

Regulatory policy and practice, however, aren't global. U.S. government crash standards, for example, require car makers to take into consideration the potential harm to passengers who aren't wearing seat belts when designing the crash-safety features of their cars. European governments assume that everyone riding in a car is wearing a belt -- a standard that's easier and less costly for car makers to meet.

U.S. government and insurance-industry crash tests effectively require that American cars have stouter, heavier bumpers, the better to withstand impacts of five miles per hour. European crash tests don't put the same premium on bumper strength. The result is that cars need different bumper designs for Europe and the U.S.

但是，各国的政策法规和实际操作并不符合全球化的要求。例如，美国政府的碰撞标准要求汽车制造商考虑车上乘客在未系安全带的情况下可能遭受的伤害，而欧洲的碰撞标准则假定车上的所有人都系了安全带。因此达到欧洲的碰撞标准更容易，所花成本也要小些。

European standards for rear-view mirrors are slightly different from U.S. requirements. A North American mirror has to be larger and flatter -- a fitting reflection, perhaps, on the dimensions of the average North American driver.

另外欧洲关于汽车后视镜的标准与美国也有些微的不同。相比之下美国汽车的后视镜更大更平一些，也许这反映了美国司机的平均身材。

Auto industry officials have lobbied for years to get the U.S. and European governments to harmonize their regulations. An effort begun under a 1998 trans-Atlantic agreement has produced results, such as common standards for electronic stability control, says James Vondale, director of Ford's automotive-safety office. When it comes to merging fundamental standards involving crash testing, lighting and brakes, 'there are still many challenges for manufacturers,' he says, citing in particular the U.S. requirement to design for unbelted passengers.

汽车工业的官员们已经游说多年，希望美国和欧洲各国的政府能够互相协调他们制定的政策。福特汽车的车辆安全办公室主管詹姆士·汪达尔(James Vondale)说，一个1998年签订的跨大西洋协议已经初见成效，这个协议规定了汽车电子稳定控制器等部件的共同标准。他还说，当这些共识逐渐涉及到碰撞测试、照明和刹车等基础标准的时候，“还将会有许多生产制造方面的挑战”，尤其是美国的设计必须考虑乘客不系安全带的情况。

'Picking Them Off'

A spokesman for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says the agency is 'working very hard to harmonize as much as possible. We recognize it's become a global market.... We're picking them off one by one.'

美国国家公路交通安全管理局(National Highway Traffic Safety Administration)说，有关人员正在“非常努力地协调尽可能多的不同规定。我们认识到汽车行业已经形成了全球市场……我们正在一个问题接着一个问题地解决。”

The cost of trans-Atlantic regulatory disharmonies is a burden for all auto makers that have significant sales on both sides of the ocean. But it's particularly acute for Detroit's auto makers, which are playing catch-up in the race to develop global cars. The cost of adapting European Ford designs to American rules runs to 'hundreds of dollars a car' in extra costs, Mr. Kuzak says.

美欧两地标准的差异对那些在这两个市场都占有大量份额的汽车公司来说是一个沉重负担。但这种情况对底特律的汽车公司来说尤为严重，因为在研发全球通用汽车平台的竞赛中，他们已经落后。库扎克说，让欧洲版福特汽车符合美国标准的额外花费将达到“每辆车数百美元”。

That doesn't sound like much. But this is auto industry math: Multiplied by Ford's annual U.S. sales volume of about two million vehicles, 'hundreds of dollars' a car -- let's say $500 -- is nearly $1 billion a year. That's money Ford could use in its effort to stay off the public dole.

听起来好像并不多。但是按照汽车工业的公式：福特汽车每年在美国销售大约200万辆汽车，乘以每辆车多花费的数百美元，就算500美元，这也是接近每年10亿美元的开销。而福特汽车是可以省下这些钱救自己命的。

Joseph B. White

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090327/ffe161417.asp

通用汽车新任CEO称能按时完成政府设定目标

通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)新任首席执行长韩德胜(Fritz Henderson)周二称，公司可在6月1日的最后期限前达成美国政府汽车业工作小组设定的目标。

周一上任通用汽车临时首席执行长的韩德胜称，通用汽车仍致力于庭外重组，公司了解避免破产所需完成的任务。

美国政府将在6月1日前为通用汽车提供营运资金，在此期间，通用汽车需要制定新的重组计划并努力与工会、债权人和其他利益相关者达成交易。

韩德胜称，更多时间并不会有什么帮助；他承认，公司若无法在6月1日前完成上述任务，将被迫寻求法院破产保护。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090401/bus072528.asp

奥巴马给通用汽车和克莱斯勒较短时间定计划证明新贷款合理性

美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)让通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp., GM)和克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)在短期内制定出计划，以证明其获得政府新贷款的合理性，并警告称，它们不能依赖无止境的政府救助。

奥巴马周一在白宫(White House)用事先准备好的讲话稿表示，美国政府不能、也不会让美国汽车业就这么消失。

他说，政府提出的要求是严厉的；公司需要作出艰难抉择；需要已经作出痛苦让步的工会和员工进一步作出让步；债权人需要意识到，他们不能总指望不止境的政府救助。

美国政府于周日已经迫使通用汽车公司首席执行长(Rick Wagoner)辞职并否决了通用汽车及克莱斯勒此前递交的包括申请额外政府救助内容在内的重组计划。

现在美国政府将给通用汽车60天的时间制定出生存策略。而处境更为糟糕的克莱斯勒必须在一个月的时间内与意大利的菲亚特公司(Fiat, F.MI)达成合作伙伴关系。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090331/BUS015630.asp

美国政府施压 通用汽车CEO瓦格纳辞职

奥巴马政府威胁说将停止提供更多的救助资金，以此迫使通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)首席执行长瓦格纳(Rick Wagoner)辞职，并对克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)下了一剂猛药，这是自去年经济危机爆发以来，美国政府干预私营行业的最大举措之一。

政府汽车任务小组周日宣布了瓦格纳将辞职的消息。任务小组在调查报告中还说，它认为克莱斯勒无法作为一家独立公司继续生存下去，并暗示说通用汽车和克莱斯勒取得成功的最好机会可能也需要以一种迅速的、“外科式的”方式使用破产法。

此举还间接表明财政部试图更深入地干预美国最大、历史最悠久的汽车生产商通用汽车，其程度超出大部分观察人士预计。

经过一个多月的分析后，政府汽车任务小组判定，通用汽车和克莱斯勒都没能提出重组和生存下去的可行计划。对克莱斯勒的结论则更加黯淡。政府说，将向克莱斯勒提供30天的资金，让它可以与意大利汽车生产商菲亚特(Fiat SpA)达成一项可行的安排。菲亚特与克莱斯勒有着临时合作关系。

如果两家公司达成确定性的合作协议，政府将考虑向克莱斯勒追加至多60亿美元的投资。如果谈判破裂，政府将听任克莱斯勒破产。

尽管对克莱斯勒的看法悲观，但任务小组表示，并不打算替换公司首席执行长纳德利(Robert Nardelli)。与自2000年就开始担任通用汽车首席执行长的瓦格纳不同的是，纳德利被视为汽车行业的门外汉，2007年克莱斯勒被Cerberus Capital Management LP收购后，他才担任首席执行长。

除迫使瓦格纳辞职外，任务小组还说，通用汽车正处于替换大部分董事的过程中。资深董事克里萨(Kent Kresa)将代理董事长一职。首席营运长亨德森(Frederick Henderson)将接替瓦格纳任首席执行长。

政府说，将向通用汽车提供足够维持60多天运营的资金，期间调整后的董事会和高管层必须提出一个比上月提交的更为有力的重组计划。

根据白宫周一早间公布的条款，政府准备在整个过程中支持通用汽车，确保通用汽车度过难关，并拥有一个全新的开始和光明的未来。

政府官员明确表示，两家公司仍极有可能面临快速且受严格监管的破产改组。一名官员在谈到通用汽车时把这样一个过程比作“快速漂洗”，可能会去除公司大部分债务和合约责任。

最显而易见的输家看起来是通用汽车和克莱斯勒成千上万的债券持有者和放贷机构。政府官员说，两家公司都负债累累，必须把这些债务剥离。政府表示，要想让克莱斯勒生存下去，将需要剥离公司大部分的担保债务和全部的无担保债务和股票。

为安抚不愿买通用汽车和克莱斯勒汽车的消费者，政府计划采取不同寻常的措施，为两家公司新车的全部保修提供担保。一旦这两家公司状况好转，这些担保就会转到公司名下。

通用汽车发言人哈里斯(Steve Harris)拒绝置评。

克里萨在通用汽车周日晚间发布的声明中说，董事会已经有一段时间意识到公司的重组将很可能造成股东的重大变化，需要拥有更多技能和经验的新董事。

奥巴马计划周一公布政府对两家公司生存能力的临时结论，以及要实现复苏所需要采取的很多措施。奥巴马暂时不会批准两家公司上个月申请的216亿美元新贷款。

Neil King Jr. / John D. Stoll

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090330/bus174348.asp

油气开发投资减少将推高油价

Spending Slowdown Will Haunt Oil Prices

油气开发投资减少将推高油价

The slowdown in investment in oil and gas production could lop off nearly eight million barrels a day of future oil supply growth, setting the stage for another big crude price surge in years to come, according to a new study.

新近进行的一项研究显示，在油气开发方面的投资增速放缓有可能使未来的原油供应量每天少增加近800万桶，这将给原油价格今后再度大幅上涨奠定基础。

The global credit crisis and falling oil prices have squeezed oil companies' finances and forced many to cut capital spending and postpone projects. That could have big implications for supply when the global recession ends and demand for energy recovers, the report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates says.

全球信贷危机以及油价不断下跌打击了石油公司的财力，迫使许多石油公司削减了资本支出或推迟了油气开发项目的实施。剑桥能源研究协会(CERA)的研究报告说，当全球衰退结束、能源需求恢复增长时，这种状况可能对世界能源供应产生重大影响。

CERA projected last summer, before the economic crisis set in, that world oil production capacity would rise to 109 million barrels a day by 2014 from the current 94.5 million barrels a day.

CERA去年夏天在此次经济危机爆发前预计，到2014年时世界石油生产能力将从目前的每天9,450万桶增加到每天1.09亿桶。

It now says 7.6 million barrels a day -- or slightly more than half -- of that increase is 'at risk' due to project deferrals or cancellations.

该机构现在则认为，由于一系列油气开发项目被推迟或取消，它所预计的2014年以前世界油气生产能力增加量中，有一半多一点（每天760万桶）有无法实现的危险。

The report says that reduction in capacity is a 'potentially powerful and long-lasting aftershock' following the oil-price slide of 2008, when within a few months crude fell by more than two-thirds, from a record high of $147 a barrel. It's currently trading at around $53 a barrel.

这份报告说，油气生产能力下降是2008年油价下滑后一场“可能威力巨大且长期持续的余震”。在此次油价下跌中，短短几个月时间原油价格就从每桶147美元的历史高点下跌了三分之二以上。目前的原油价格约为每桶53美元。

'A price collapse of this magnitude really registers on the Richter scale, and its impact on levels of future investment will be felt for years,' said CERA Chairman Daniel Yergin in an interview. The report comes amid ample evidence companies are scaling back on investment in costly projects that require a high oil price to be profitable, such as the oil sands of Canada or the ultra-deep waters off west Africa.

CERA的会长丹尼尔?叶金(Daniel Yergin)在接受采访时说，这种程度的油价暴跌真像是一场大地震，其对未来油气投资水平的影响将持续多年。在CERA这份报告发表之际，已有大量证据显示石油公司正纷纷缩减高成本投资项目的规模，这些项目只有油价维持在高位时才能盈利，加拿大的油砂矿和西非的超深海油田就属于这类项目。

Middle East oil producers, hit by falling export revenue, have reined in spending plans. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries says as many as 35 new projects in OPEC countries could now be delayed past 2013. Most major Western oil companies say they're sticking to their big investment plans but even they have said they're slowing down some developments to take advantage of falling costs.

受到出口收入不断下降打击的中东石油生产商已在放慢支出。石油输出国组织(OPEC, 简称：欧佩克)说，目前欧佩克成员国有多达35个新开发项目可能会被推迟到2013年以后进行。虽然多数西方主要石油公司称，会坚持实施其大型投资计划，但即使是它们也表示，正在放慢一些投资项目的进度，以利用成本不断下降带来的好处。

The slowdown is troubling the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based adviser to oil-consuming countries, which has also trimmed its forecast for supply growth due to the fall in oil prices and the lack of available credit.

投资增速放缓使国际能源署(IEA)感到担忧。由于油价下跌以及信贷短缺，这家总部设在巴黎的石油消费国顾问机构已经下调了对能源供应增长量的预测。

The agency's deputy executive director Richard Jones told a conference in London this week that more than two million barrels a day of new oil production capacity that was due on-stream in coming years looks likely to have been deferred for now.

IEA副署长理查德?琼斯(Richard Jones)本周在伦敦的一次会议上说，现在看来，原本预计未来几年中将增加的原油日生产能力中有超过200万桶有可能要推迟实现。

'Unless sufficient companies have the will and financial ability to invest through the downcycle, there is a real risk that supply growth may lag the eventual rebound of demand, leading to substantial price increases -- possibly as early as this year,' Mr. Jones said.

琼斯说，除非足够多的企业有意愿和财力在经济景气下行时投资，否则就存在供应增长赶不上需求反弹速度的真实风险，并会导致油价大幅上涨，这种情况可能最早今年就会出现。

CERA said it expects a large number of new projects in Angola, Nigeria, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and deepwater off Brazil as well as in Canada's oil sands and Venezuela's hard-to-extract heavy oil, to be postponed or canceled due to the low crude price.

CERA说，由于原油价格低迷，它预计安哥拉、尼日利亚和挪威等国以及美国墨西哥湾地区采油业、巴西深海油田开发、加拿大油砂矿和委内瑞拉难以开采的重油等领域将有大量新项目被推迟或取消。

However, the organization noted that with industry costs expected to fall this year, so will the oil price necessary to justify investment in such high-cost projects.

但CERA也指出，鉴于产业成本预计今年将会下降，保证这类高成本投资项目能够获利的油价水平也将下降。

Some projects in the U.K. and Norway are also seen as vulnerable, because the credit crunch is hampering companies' access to capital.

由于信贷危机正在给企业融资造成困难，英国和挪威的一些油气开发项目也有推迟或取消的危险。

Other high-cost ventures, such as new biofuels and projects that seek to turn natural gas and coal into clean-burning transportation fuels are also likely to be affected, the CERA report said.

CERA的报告还说，新型生物燃料以及将天然气和煤炭转化成清洁燃油的其他高成本项目也有可能受到不利影响。

CERA hedged its predictions of supply tightness with uncertainty about the rate at which world oil demand will recover after the recession. If it doesn't begin to rebound next year, as many predict, the oil market could face a 'large surplus of production capacity for the next several years.'

虽然CERA预测说未来可能出现原油供应紧张，但它也表示，无法确定经济衰退结束后世界石油需求将会以多快的速度反弹。CERA说，如果石油需求未像许多人预测的那样从明年起开始反弹，那么石油市场在未来几年中有可能面临严重的产能过剩。

Government policies to counter climate change and increase energy efficiency could also drive down the West's appetite for oil, it said.

CERA还说，各国政府应对气候变化以及提高能源使用效率的政策也有可能降低西方国家对石油的需求。

Guy Chazan

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090327/bus100229.asp

中国上调成品油价可能损害需求

中国政府突然上调成品油基准价格对国有炼油企业而言是把双刃剑：一方面该举措表明政府对确保炼油业务利润率稳定的态度是认真的，但另一方面也可能使市场需求受到挤压。

中国政府将汽油、柴油最高限价大幅上调3%-5%的决定适逢国内成品油库存维持在纪录高位，成品油需求疲软的状况也才刚刚显露复苏迹象。

接受道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)采访的多家加油站表示，已经按照3%-5%的调价幅度上调了汽油、柴油零售价。不过分析师们表示，如果涨价明显抑制了需求，加油站以后可能转而大幅降价。

中国最大的炼油企业中国石油化工股份有限公司(China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., 简称：中国石化)股价周三大幅走高，因为汽油、柴油出厂价每吨分别上调人民币290元和人民币180元，至人民币5,730和4,990元的规定自今日起正式生效。

在香港交易所(Hong Kong Stock Exchange)上市交易的中国石化股票收盘上涨5.5%，至4.64港元，因为投资者似乎从中国政府在大环境不利的情况下下仍然愿意上调成品油价格的举动中获得了安慰。这也是中国政府自1月1日引入新的定价机制以来首次上调成品油最高限价。

穆迪(Moody's)经济学家Sherman Chan表示，中国政府在经济形势依然黯淡的背景下仍于本周决定上调成品油价格，这表明了政府对成品油定价机制改革的坚持。

中国国家发展和改革委员会周三证实，上调成品油最高限价是受国际原油价格近期的走势影响。

格林威治时间0530，全球电子交易系统显示，五月交割的轻质低硫原油价格在每桶53美元上方，油价自1月14日中国上一次调整成品油价格以来已累计上涨逾40%。

中国政府在1月1日实施的改革方案中推出了基于市场的成品油定价机制，成品油出厂价格将根据原油成本、税收和炼油企业的合理利润确定。

作为这个新定价机制的一部分，中国的成品油零售企业可在政府最高限价以下灵活制定成品油价格。

息旺能源(C1 Energy)成品油分析师John Chu表示，尽管新机制是为了通过刺激竞争使消费者从中获益，但中国成品油市场仍然由中国石化和中国石油天然气股份有限公司(PetroChina Co., PTR, 简称：中国石油)所主导，这使得成品油零售价一直停留在接近官方最高限价的水平上。

Chu称，因此两大石油巨头在发改委发布公告后双双上调零售价也就不足为奇了，但价格能否保持在上调后的水平上还取决于市场的反应。

中国石油规划总院(China Petroleum Planning & Engineering Institute)一位高级工程师表示，下游需求可能受涨价影响而走软。

他称，有鉴于此，中国石油下属销售部门可能提供折扣优惠，或采取其他举措来保护业务不受影响。

这位工程师表示，既然炼油业务利润率已经持稳，销量将成为关键因素。

炼油业务利润率转正

花旗集团(Citigroup)分析师Graham Cunningham表示，按照当前油价计算，中国国内炼油业务利润目前为每桶6美元左右。

他称，最新调价举措最重要是表明，中国政府将恪守更加频繁地调整成品油价格的承诺，从而使炼油企业的利润率更为稳定。

Cunningham补充称，市场对新成品油定价机制的信心增强将推动中国石化股价走高，他对中国石化股票的评级为买进，并认为该股的表现将强于竞争对手中国石油和中国海洋石油有限公司(CNOOC Ltd., CEO, 简称：中国海洋石油)。

尽管与原油价格飙升相比，中国成品油零售价格3%-5%的涨幅可谓相当温和，但这次涨价似乎有些不合时宜，因为国内成品油供应商的库存正处在纪录高位。

《上海证券报》周二援引中国石油和化学工业协会(China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association)提供的数据报导，截至2月底，中国成品油库存为1,490万吨，较上年同期上升36.3%，较前一个月上升11.4%。

报导还表示，中国2月份成品油销量开始上升，较1月份增长9.8%，特别是柴油销量较1月份大幅增长了18.5%。

中国石油规划总院的丁少恒最近表示，预计今年中国表观成品油需求将下降4%-5%，受柴油需求较上年下降10%-12%拖累。

丁少恒称，受电力需求、特别是制造业电力需求疲软拖累，来自电厂的柴油需求可能下降15%-20%。目前全球经济减速正对制造业造成严重冲击。

他还补充称，预计今年中国汽油需求将增长8%-10%，增速较前几年有所放缓。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090326/ecb080824.asp