How Congress Will Kill Detroit
如果底特律汽车三巨头听从众议院议长佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)和参议院多数党领袖里德(Harry Reid)的指示，他们将在周二公布“让行业恢复活力”的“令人信服”的计划。
If the Big Three automakers follow the instructions of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, they will unveil on Tuesday 'credible' plans that 'result in a viable industry.'
但实际上三巨头向国会提交任何“令人信服”的计划的可能性微乎其微。要让底特律浴火重生，就必需一场激烈、严苛的改革，而无论是底特律还是华盛顿实际上都对此没有兴趣。
But there is actually little chance of the Big Three presenting Congress with any 'credible' plans. A reborn Detroit requires a radical, harsh restructuring for which neither Detroit nor Washington really has the appetite.
过去几个月里的慷慨陈词都是围绕着保护工人和振兴美国汽车业的主题展开的。
The fevered rhetoric of the past few months has been all about protecting workers and resurrecting the American car industry.
但令人悲哀的现实是，要想建立充满活力的汽车业，就要解雇工人和关闭过剩产能。
But the sad reality of creating a viable industry is all about firing workers and shutting down excess capacity.
这是底特律和华盛顿都不想面对的现实。但他们迟早都要面对。
It's a truth that neither Detroit nor Washington want to face. But they'll have to - either sooner or later.
为了获得联邦救助资金中的第一笔250亿美元的拨款，底特律汽车巨头需要有关其未来的令人信服的方案。
To get this initial tranche of $25 billion in federal bailout funds, Detroit is supposed to present a convincing case for its future.
但如果这个方案需要削减数以万计的工作岗位，关闭工厂、撕毁同全美汽车工人联合会(UAW)的协议，以及推迟国会设定的汽车燃油标准呢？
But what if that case entails chopping tens of thousands of jobs, closing factories, reneging on agreements with the UAW as well as pushing back on car-mileage standards set by Congress?
国会对这样一个救助方案会做何感想？
How would Congress feel about such a bailout?
以通用汽车(General Motors)为例。对该公司唯一可行的商业计划是大刀阔斧地重组。这也是德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)汽车业分析师罗德?拉奇(Rod Lache)预想的结果。
Take General Motors. The only business plan that makes any sense for GM is a fast, brutal restructuring. It's the kind of thing envisioned by Deutsche Bank auto analyst Rod Lache.
拉奇预计，到2010年时，通用汽车的品牌将从8个减少到4个。至少有5家大型组装厂将会关闭。通用汽车12万临时和全职工人中还要有三分之一将失去工作。
By 2010, Lache sees GM brands shrinking from eight to four. At least five major assembly plants would be closed. A further third of GM's hourly and salaried workforce of 120,000 would be let go.
通用汽车的国内市场份额将从22%降至17%。随着超过400亿美元的无担保债券将转换为股票，通用汽车的资产还将缩水。
GM's domestic market share would drop from 22% to 17%. And the GM balance sheet would be downsized as over $40 billion in unsecured debt would be converted into equity.
那时，也只有到那时，通用汽车才会有竞争力并获利。或许吧。
Then - and only then - could GM compete and make profits. Maybe.
这应该是适合通用汽车的可行的计划。但通用汽车周二向国会提交这样一份计划的可能性有多大呢？
That's what a viable plan for GM might look like. But what are the odds of GM delivering a plan like that to Congress tomorrow?
如果它这样做，全美汽车工人联合会或华盛顿的政治家赞成这项计划的可能性有多大？几乎是零。
And if it did, what are the odds of the UAW or Washington politicians giving their blessing? Pretty close to zero.
看看通用汽车的6,600家经销商网络吧。这相当于每个国会选区平均有15家经销商。但据美林(Merrill Lynch)称，通用汽车应该只保留2,000家经销商。
Look at GM's 6,600 strong dealer network. That works out to an average of 15 dealers in each Congressional district. But, according to Merrill Lynch, GM should have only 2,000 dealers.
这意味着，平均每位国会议员的选区中将有11家经销商和总计500个职位消失。
For the average Congressman that means his district alone would see the disappearance of some 11 dealerships - and 500 total jobs.
三巨头在起草重组计划时可能会行动迟缓，这并不奇怪。他们意识到，要分得一杯羹，头等大事是让国会满意。而让国会满意意味着保住岗位，而不是裁员。
Little wonder that the Big Three will probably 'go slow' in drawing up their restructuring plans. They realize that the number one priority in getting handouts is making Congress happy. And making Congress happy means preserving jobs, not cutting them.
所有这些都是本周将不可避免地产生经典的华盛顿妥协的原因。
All of this is why, this week will inevitably produce a classic Washington compromise.
由于三巨头的CEO在公司专机和过于慷慨的CEO薪酬等基本不相干的问题上受到指责，可以料到，各方都将有一番慷慨陈词。
There will be the predictable grandstanding as the Big Three CEOs are lectured on the largely irrelevant evils of corporate jets and 'lavish' CEO pay.
有关底特律汽车公司的商业计划以及其是否“令人信服”，可能还会爆发一些表面上的争论。
And there will probably be some lively pro-forma debate on Detroit's business plans and whether they're 'credible' or not.
但经过来来往往的多个回合后，三巨头的商业计划将被断定“足以令人信服”，从而获得250亿美元。
But after some to-ing and fro-ing, the Big Three's business plans will be deemed 'credible enough' to get the $25 billion.
然后这个烂摊子就会交给1月下旬上任的奥巴马总统和新一届美国国会。
And then the whole mess will be kicked to President Obama and the new Congress come late January.
到那时，经济和底特律的情况可能会变得非常糟糕，以至于华盛顿决定不再把钱投到无底洞中。然后三巨头或许将不可避免地走向破产之路。
By then, things may be so desperate in the economy and Detroit that even Washington will stop throwing good money after bad. Then maybe the bankruptcy of the Big Three could take its inevitable course.
Evan Newmark
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