钢材持续涨价导致大项目难产

Fast-Rising Steel Prices Set Back Big Projects

2008年05月16日09:30

随着钢材价格持续上涨，全球范围出现大型建设项目和造船、油气勘探等项目投资被推迟或放慢进度的情况，这或许会给钢铁生产商造成冲击。

Relentless increases in the price of steel are halting or slowing major construction projects world-wide and investments in shipbuilding and oil-and-gas exploration, setting the stage for a potential backlash against steelmakers.

土耳其的一家建筑协会本周表示，周四将在8个城市举行为期15天的大罢工，目的是向钢铁生产商施压，要求他们降价。土耳其的钢材价格自去年底以来已上涨了一倍以上。

In Turkey, a construction association said this week it will begin a 15-day strike in eight cities Thursday to press steelmakers to cut their prices, which have more than doubled locally since late last year.

在印度新德里，一个大型桥梁计划已告搁置，原因是钢材类成本大大超出承受能力，同时，面向贫困人口的住宅建设项目也被承包商推迟或压缩，他们希望由此敦促印度政府在接下来的3个月遏制钢材价格。

In New Delhi, India, an ambitious bridge project has been put on hold because of steel-related cost overruns, and contractors are postponing or reining in construction of much-needed housing for the poor, prompting the Indian government to freeze steel prices for the next three months.

为控制钢材价格，委内瑞拉对其最大的钢铁企业重新实行了国有化，并将限制出口。与此同时，美国石油业人士表示，钢材价格居高不下影响了他们的油气勘探计划。

Venezuela, aiming to control prices, renationalized its largest steelmaker and is limiting exports. Oil executives in the U.S., meanwhile, say costly steel is threatening their energy exploration efforts.

从全球范围来看，目前的钢材价格较12月份已上涨了40%-50%，但行业管理人士称，钢价还未达到顶峰。周三，全球最大钢铁企业安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)将欧洲吨钢价格上调20%，达到120欧元（合186美元）。该公司称，涨价原因是，无论是铁矿石还是能源、运输等各方面的成本都在增加。

Globally, steel prices are up 40% to 50% since December, and industry executives say they haven't hit their peak. On Wednesday, ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker by volume, boosted prices by 120 euros ($186), or 20%, a metric ton in Europe, citing increases in its own costs -- from iron ore to energy and transportation.

该公司首席执行长莱克施密?米塔尔(Lakshmi Mittal)在电话会议上向记者表示，我们目前还没作出钢材价格触顶的预期，目前我们只看到生产成本每个月都在增加。

'We have not yet seen that prices have peaked, what we have seen is the costs increasing every month,' said ArcelorMittal Chief Executive Lakshmi Mittal on a conference call with reporters.

铁矿石价格今年上涨了71%，钢铁生产的另外两种重要原料焦炭和废钢的价格也翻了一番。这波涨势与由于供应紧张和全球需求上涨导致的原材料价格普遍上涨的大趋势是一致的，这在一定程度上是受中国、印度和其他发展中国家快速工业化的推动。

Iron-ore prices have risen 71% this year. Two other crucial steelmaking ingredients, coking coal and scrap steel, have doubled in price. The run-ups are part of a broader surge in raw-materials prices amid tight supplies and soaring global demand, fueled in part by the rapid industrialization of China, India and other developing nations.

安赛乐米塔尔周三表示，一季度其利润达到23.7亿美元，较去年同期的22.5亿美元增长5.4%。受新兴市场销售强劲增长，其总销售和交货量均大幅上升。

ArcelorMittal said Wednesday that its earnings grew 5.4% to $2.37 billion in the first quarter from $2.25 billion a year earlier. Both sales and shipments grew sharply as the Luxembourg-based company sold more steel in emerging markets.

世界各国对钢材的巨大需求目前并无退潮的迹象。以土耳其为例，一家新造船厂建成后每年将需要10万吨钢材。虽然美国经济疲软，但其钢材需求也在上升。

The world's voracious appetite for steel shows little sign of easing. In Turkey, a new shipyard, once completed, will need 100,000 tons of steel a year. And demand in the U.S. is rising, despite a sluggish economy.

虽然目前钢铁生产商握有定价权，但他们也担心，一段时间后，高价格将损害他们的销售。安赛乐米塔尔首席财务长阿迪亚?米塔尔(Aditya Mittal)在另外一次电话会议上向记者表示，价格将对需求产生影响，这对钢铁企业来说不是好事情。

While still in a position of pricing power, steelmakers are concerned that over time, their high prices will affect sales. 'There will be impact on demand, and that is not a good development for the steel industry,' said Aditya Mittal, chief financial officer of ArcelorMittal, on a separate conference call.

在此局势下，钢铁企业开始采取措施降低成本。为规避原材料涨价的影响，越来越多的钢铁企业自己收购矿山和煤矿或资源储备区，甚至收购废钢企业。全日铁(Nippon Steel Corp.)及日本其他钢铁公司本月宣布，将加快行动削减成本，可能采取的措施包括裁员及开发价格较低廉的钢材替代品等。

As a result, steelmakers are taking steps to cut their costs. To shield themselves from higher raw-material prices, more of them are acquiring their own iron-ore and coal mines or deposits, as well as producers of scrap steel. Nippon Steel Corp. and other Japanese steelmakers announced this month that they would accelerate cost-cutting efforts, which could include layoffs and developing cheaper steel substitutes.

钢铁行业也在进行整合，这将有利于生产商提高效率，获得规模效益，最终实现更稳定的定价，减少企业数量，扩大企业规模。近几个月，印度的Tata Steel Ltd.和Essar Steel Holdings Ltd.，以及俄罗斯的Evraz Group SA和瑞典的SSAB Svenskt Stoal AB都进行了大规模并购。即便如此，世界最大五家钢铁企业的产量仍只占全球钢铁总产量的18%。

The industry is also consolidating, which should allow producers to become more efficient and gain economies of scale that could ultimately result in more pricing stability and fewer, larger players. In recent months, India's Tata Steel Ltd. and Essar Steel Holdings Ltd. have made major acquisitions, as have Russia's Evraz Group SA and Sweden's SSAB Svenskt Stoal AB. Even so, the world's top-five steelmakers still account for just 18% of the world's steel supplies.

一些钢铁企业也在研究降低产品成本的新方法，以防止客户转而使用铝或高强度塑料等价格较低的替代品。芬兰不锈钢生产商Outokumpu Oyj研制出了一种降低不锈钢中镍含量的新方法，此法可以降低产品成本。Outokumpu Oyj主要生产用于制造家用电器的钢材。

Some steelmakers also are experimenting with ways to make their products less expensive, in an effort to keep customers from switching to less-expensive substitutes like aluminum or high-strength plastics. Finnish stainless-steel maker Outokumpu Oyj, which makes steel for appliances, has come up with a way to reduce the nickel content of its stainless steel to make it cheaper.

不过除非这些变化能立稳脚跟，否则钢铁价格很可能会继续上涨。

But until such changes take hold, steel prices will likley continue to increase.

建筑商最近提醒地震多发国土耳其的官员说，钢铁价格的不断上涨已经刺激一些承包商使用价格和等级较低的钢材，而这会威胁到建筑物的质量。

Builders recently warned officials in Turkey, which rests in an earthquake zone, that rising steel prices have prompted some contractors to use cheaper, inferior-grade steel, threatening the quality of their buildings.

与此同时，一些国家通过设立出口壁垒而囤积钢材。上周，印度开始对出口钢材征收15%的关税。国内钢铁产量不能满足本国需求的国家则大幅降低进口税，以便吸引更多的钢铁进口。上个月，伊朗宣布将把房屋和道路用钢筋的进口税从20%下调至9%。

Some nations, meanwhile, are hoarding steel by erecting export barriers. Last week, India imposed a 15% duty on exported steel. Countries that don't make enough of the metal are slashing import taxes in an effort to attract more. Last month, Iran announced it was lowering its import tax on rebar steel, used in new buildings and roads, to 9% from 20%.

钢铁价格的高涨也在影响从造船到能源开发等各个行业。需要大量高等级钢板的造船厂受到冲击，分析人士表示，钢铁供应问题正在使造船进度减缓，尤其是在韩国的大宇造船(Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co.)这类中小型船厂。

The impact of high steel prices is rippling through industries from shipbuilding to energy exploration. Shipbuilders, who buy vast quantities of high-end plate steel are getting hammered, and analysts say steel-supply problems are slowing the pace of construction, especially at smaller shipyards like South Korea's Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co.

四月份，荷兰皇家壳牌有限公司(Royal Dutch Shell PLC)的一位管理人士对美国众议院一个委员会表示，钢铁和其他原材料的成本妨碍了寻找新能源矿藏的工作。据大型能源研究公司Cambridge Energy Research Associates称，这些成本对油气公司来说是一项严峻挑战，致使很多项目延期完工或是推迟启动。石油公司需要用钢铁来制造钻井设备和管道。

In April, an executive of Royal Dutch Shell PLC told a House committee that steel, which is needed to make drilling equipment and pipelines, and other raw-material costs were hampering efforts to find new energy sources. These costs 'are a major challenge for oil and gas companies and are contributing to the delays and postponements of many projects,' according to Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a leading energy-research company.

甚至是手机用户最终都可能会感觉到影响。无线运营商NTCH Inc.的开发经理埃里克?斯坦曼(Eric Steinmann)表示，该公司每年约建造100座手机通讯塔，去年建造通讯塔的钢铁成本涨了一倍，每座涨到了大约3万美元。

Cellphone users could eventually feel the pinch. Eric Steinmann, development manager at wireless carrier NTCH Inc., which operates under the Clear Talk brand, says steel costs for each of the about 100 cellphone tower poles his company builds annually doubled to about $30,000 last year.

美国钢铁制品生产企业Trinity Products Inc.的老板罗伯特?格里格斯(Robert Griggs)表示，他告诉自己的客户说只能保证两个星期内价格不会涨上去。他说，去年钢材价格每吨涨100美元用了6个月的时间。现在一个月就能涨这么多。该公司生产用于桥梁的钢管和钢筋。

Robert Griggs, owner of Missouri-based Trinity Products Inc., a maker of steel pipes, tubes and rebar for bridges, said he tells his customers he can only guarantee prices for two weeks. Last year, it took six months for steel prices to rise $100 a ton, he said. Now, prices are moving that much in a month.

对钢铁买家来说，转而使用低成本的材料也非易事。对汽车和家用电器的冲压和喷涂设备进行相应改造需要数年时间，它们目前都是针对钢铁材料设计生产的。而且铝和特种塑料等其他替代品的成本也在上升。

Shifting to lower cost materials isn't an easy option for steel buyers, either. It takes years to retool auto and appliance stamping and dye machines, currently engineered for steel products. Also the cost of alternatives, such as aluminum and certain plastics, is increasing.

Robert Guy Matthews

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080516/ffe094252.asp

找寻中国石油企业的佼佼者

China's Oil Refiners Struggle

2008年05月09日11:10

全球油价飙升令中国的综合性石油巨头深受打击。政府稳定油价、让国内消费者免受能源成本上涨冲击的政策大大降低了这些企业的盈利能力。然而对于主要从事石油勘探业务的中国公司，其股票却可能对投资者仍具有吸引力。

SURGING global oil prices are bleeding China's integrated oil giants as they get squeezed by government policies to insulate the nation's consumers from higher energy costs. But shares in Chinese companies that specialize in exploring for oil may still be attractive to investors.

中国有两家从事原油生产和成品油销售的大型综合性石油公司：中国石油天然气股份有限公司(Petrochina Co.)和中国石油化工股份有限公司(China Petroleum & Chemical)。它们都遭受了国际原油价格突破每桶120美元和国内成品油价格仍被限制在低得多的水平带来的双重打击。中国的石油公司本质上都由国家控制，因此尽管出现亏损，也要面临保障国内市场供应的政治压力。

China has two big integrated oil companies that both produce oil and sell refined fuels: PetroChina and China Petroleum & Chemical, or Sinopec. They are feeling the pinch, caught between international crude prices breaching $120 a barrel and domestic fuel prices capped at much lower levels. China's oil companies are ultimately controlled by the state and face political pressure to keep domestic markets supplied despite losses.

油价持续上涨对中国石化的利润冲击尤其大。这家中国最大的成品油销售企业有72%的石油都要从外部购买，这使其非常容易受到国家政策的影响，比如，国家政策就不允许该公司以更高的价格向国外销售成品油。

The sustained rise in oil prices has been especially hard on the bottom line of Sinopec, China's biggest seller of fuel. Sinopec has to buy 72% of the oil it refines from other producers, leaving it dangerously exposed to state policies. And state policies prevent it from selling fuel for a higher price abroad.

在2008年第一季度，中国石化的净利润比上年同期下降了69%，是2000年首次公开募股(IPO)以来跌幅最大的一次。如果不是获得了人民币73亿元（约合10.4亿美元）的政府补贴，中国石化今年1至3月份甚至会出现亏损。

In the first quarter of 2008, Sinopec's net profit plunged 69% from a year earlier -- its biggest decline since doing an initial public offering in 2000. Sinopec would have posted a loss for the January-March period if not for a 7.3 billion yuan ($1.04 billion) government subsidy.

里昂证券亚太市场(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)能源研究部主管关荣乐(Gordon Kwan)在4月份将中国石化的评级下调为卖出，将其12个月目标股价定为6港元。中国石化在香港上市的H股周四下跌3.3%，收于7.87港元（约合1.01美元），今年以来累计下跌了33%。中国石化还有美国存托凭证和A股分别在美国和上海证交所上市。

Gordon Kwan, head of energy research at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, downgraded Sinopec to a sell in April with a 12-month target price of HK$6. Hong Kong shares of Sinopec, which also is listed in Shanghai and has American depositary receipts, fell 3.3% Thursday to HK$7.87 (US$1.01). The stock is down 33% this year.

中国石油是中国原油产量最高的石油企业。该公司的情况稍好一些，第一季度的净利润下降了31%，中国石油所开采原油主要供应给旗下的炼油厂，它不需从外部大量购买原油。该公司也面临着保障国内市场供应的政治压力，尽管这意味着经济损失。

PetroChina, China's biggest oil producer by volume, fared little better, with first-quarter net profit tumbling 31% -- even though it pumps most of the oil it sells, rather than having to buy it from other producers. It is also under political pressure to keep domestic markets supplied, even if it means losing money.

在中国石油4月份公布业绩后，高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)能源分析师许利源(Kevin Koh)将该公司股票的评级下调为卖出，原因是炼油损失扩大。他将该股的12个月目标价从14.10港元下调到了10.70港元。周四，中国石油下跌0.28港元，收于11.18港元。2008年迄今，该股已下跌了20%。

After PetroChina's earnings announcement in April, Kevin Koh, an energy analyst at Goldman Sachs, downgraded the stock to a sell because of widening refining losses. He cut his 12-month target price to HK$10.70 from HK$14.10. On Thursday, PetroChina shares dropped 28 Hong Kong cents, or 2.4%, to HK$11.18. They have fallen 20% in 2008.

不过，中国没有涉足炼油或成品油零售业务的石油生产和勘探公司却颇具吸引力，因为它们受国内能源政策的影响较小。

Still, China-based oil production and exploration companies that aren't involved in refining or retailing fuel are appealing because they are less exposed to domestic energy policy.

中国最大的海上石油生产商中国海洋石油总公司(Cnooc)就是其中的上佳选择。该公司没有披露季度净利润，但曾表示第一季度的收入比去年同期增长了61%。中海油是高盛在亚洲的首选股票之一，许利源对该股的12个月价格预期为16.50港元。中海油周四上涨0.14港元，收于14.02港元，今年以来累计上涨了5.6%。

A top pick is Cnooc, China's main offshore-oil producer. It doesn't disclose quarterly net profit, but it has said first-quarter revenue rose 61% from a year earlier. Cnooc is one of Goldman's top Asia picks, and Mr. Koh has a 12-month target of HK$16.50. Shares of Cnooc gained 14 Hong Kong cents, or 1%, to HK$14.02 Thursday and are up 5.6% this year.

去年，中海油的一些生产目标没有完成，原因之一在于恶劣的天气，比如台风就曾给一个海上油田造成了损失。但今年，该公司的油气产量有望比2007年增长15%。

Last year, Cnooc had trouble hitting some of its production targets, partly because of bad weather such as a typhoon that damaged an oil field. But this year, the company looks on track to increase oil and gas output 15% from 2007.

在经历了一段时间的蛰伏后，中海油似乎又计划重启海外收购，包括可能进入墨西哥湾，这也将是中海油自2005年在竞购加州联合石油公司(Unocal Corp)的过程中输给雪佛龙(Chevron Corp.)后首次将目光瞄向了美国。

After a period of looking inward, Cnooc appears poised to resume overseas acquisitions, including a possible foray into the Gulf of Mexico, which would be its first U.S. approach since a 2005 losing battle with Chevron Corp. for California producer Unocal Corp.

花旗集团(Citigroup)分析师康宁汉(Graham Cunningham)在近期的研究报告中写道，鉴于极佳的增长前景，中海油具备了良好的投资价值。

Cnooc offers 'good value considering the excellent growth outlook,' analyst Graham Cunningham of Citigroup wrote in a recent note.

东方证券(Orient Securities)驻上海分析师王晶说，中海油的情况与另两家石油公司有很大不同，投资者因此应对其保持乐观。她还感觉中国石化和中国石油在上海市场上市的A股目前已被低估。

Wang Jing, an analyst for Orient Securities in Shanghai, says Cnooc's situation 'is very different from the other two oil companies. Therefore, investors should be optimistic about it.' She also feels that the Shanghai-listed shares of Sinopec and PetroChina are now undervalued.

另一家在中国对石油的巨大需求中处于有利位置、同时又没有政府价格控制负担的公司是中信资源(Citic Resources Holdings)，该公司的主要资产是在哈萨克斯坦的一个油田。随着中信资源投入资金对其进行升级改造，这个油田的产量预计将大大增加。高盛的许利源说，原油价格每上涨1美元，中信资源的净利润就会增长1.8%。高盛将该公司股票的评级定为买进，并在本月将其12个月目标价从5.25港元上调至6.20港元。周四，该股上涨0.17港元，收于4.07港元。

Another company well-positioned to take advantage of China's oil demand without the burden of continued government price caps is Citic Resources Holdings, whose primary asset is an oil field in Kazakhstan. Production is expected to increase sharply as the company invests in upgrades. Goldman's Mr. Koh says a $1 increase in the price of oil could raise Citic Resources' net profit 1.8%. Goldman, which has a 'buy' rating on the stock, this month raised its 12-month target to HK$6.20 from HK$5.25. On Thursday, the shares gained 17 Hong Kong cents to HK$4.07.

这些预测面临的主要风险将是中国能源政策的突然改变。这种可能性不大，因为政府目前已经担心通胀的加剧正让消费者叫苦不迭。电力、柴油和汽油的价格都受到了控制。瑞银(UBS)经济学家乔纳森?安德森(Jonathan Anderson)认为，政府在一段时期内将继续执行这一政策，因为它仍负担得起为成品油和电力企业的损失提供补贴。

The main risk to these predictions would be a sudden change in China's energy policy. That seems unlikely because the government is already concerned that rising inflation is hurting consumers. Electricity, diesel and gasoline prices have all been held in check. UBS economist Jonathan Anderson believes the government will continue this policy for a while because it can still afford to subsidize some losses of fuel and power producers.

政府还采取了其他一些措施以缓解石油公司的压力。今年4月，财政部宣布对进口柴油和汽油实行增值税先征后返，以鼓励成品油进口，避免重现去年成品油短缺的局面。

The government has taken some other measures to try to ease oil companies' pain. In April, the Ministry of Finance announced some refunds on value-added tax for diesel and gasoline imports in order to encourage more fuel imports and prevent a repeat of last year's shortfall.

不过，一些分析师表示，真正需要做的事情是改变石油暴利税的起征点。分析师说，应将现行的油价超过每桶40美元即征暴利税至少调整为油价超过每桶60美元再行征收，因为石油生产的成本已经提高，长期石油价格也在走高。业内观察人士指出，这一调整最早有可能在今年第三季度实施。调整暴利税会提高石油公司的利润率，同时又不会造成成品油零售价的上涨。

However, some analysts say that what is really needed is a change in the special oil income levy, or windfall-profits tax, a graduated tax on oil profits with a minimum threshold of $40 a barrel. Analysts say the threshold should be raised to $60 or higher because oil production costs have risen, and long-term oil prices are also higher. Industry observers say such a change could come as early as the third quarter of this year. Adjusting that tax could fatten profit margins without the need to raise fuel prices on consumers.

但也有分析师对短期内调整暴利税持怀疑态度。中国的石油公司目前仍扮演着一半是公用事业公司、一半是西方式上市公司的尴尬角色。

But other analysts doubt changes will come soon. China's oil companies are still in an awkward stage where they are part public utility, part Western-style listed company.

尽管整个石油行业都面临着石油开采和勘探难度加大带来的成本上升问题，但中国企业还要面对政府有时将社会目标置于公司盈利之上的额外风险。这可能令判断公司价值成为一个棘手的问题。

While the entire oil industry faces challenges stemming from rising costs of harder-to-produce and -find oil fields, the Chinese face the added risk of government owners that sometimes put social goals ahead of the bottom line. That can make judging companies' value a tricky proposition.

高盛的许利源在周二的研究报告中写道：我们认为，预测中国石油和中国石化的收益无异于一门艺术，因为炼油亏损的扩大会带来频繁的政策调整。

'We believe forecasting PetroChina and Sinopec's earnings has become an art form as widening refining losses have precipitated frequent policy adjustments,' Mr. Koh wrote Tuesday in a note.

Shai Oster

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080509/ahr112534.asp

油价年内或飙升至每桶150美元

Some See Oil At $150 This Year

2008年05月07日16:41

越来越多的石油市场观察人士说，因油价不断飙升而恼火的美国选民今夏可能会面临更为糟糕的状况，因为从尼日利亚动乱到俄罗斯石油产量下滑等诸多不利因素可能会推动基准原油价格突破每桶150美元。

A growing number of oil-market watchers say voters riled by soaring fuel costs may face far worse this summer, as factors ranging from unrest in Nigeria to slumping production in Russia could shove benchmark oil prices over $150 a barrel.

周二，美国基准原油期货价格再创新高，纽约商交所原油期货结算价报121.84美元。该交易所原油期货价格今年迄今已累计上涨27%，这一价位较通胀因素调整后的1980年4月所创前历史高点超出了17%。目前油价已较上年同期上涨了96%。

U.S. benchmark crude notched another record Tuesday, settling at $121.84 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Nymex crude oil so far this year is up 27% and is now 17% above its previous inflation-adjusted record in April 1980. It is up 96% from a year ago.

眼下油价势不可挡的飙升令一些分析师发布了更为悲观的价格前景预期。曾经预见到当前涨势的高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)指出，全球市场可能最早在今年10月时就会面临油价的暴涨，届时油价将从眼下稍高于每桶120美元的水平跃升至150-200美元区间。

Oil's seemingly unstoppable surge has led some analysts to issue gloomier price outlooks. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which predicted the latest run-up, says the world may face a 'super-spike' in which crude ranges from $150 to $200 a barrel as early as October, up from just over $120 now.

达拉斯联邦储备银行(Dallas Federal Reserve Bank)能源经济学家斯蒂芬?布朗(Stephen Brown)说，这股涨势可能会把油价推至史无前例的高位，甚至超出美国内战刚结束时的油价水平。他估计，油价保持在每桶150美元的水平上可能会在第一年内吞噬美国约1.8%的经济产值，并在第二年进一步抵消1.5%。而美国第一季度折合成年率的经济增速仅为0.6%。

'That would put oil at unprecedented price levels, even going back to just after the Civil War,' said Stephen Brown, an energy economist at the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank. A sustained price of $150 a barrel, he estimates, would shave around 1.8% off U.S. economic output in the first year, and a further 1.5% in the second year. The U.S. economy in the first quarter grew at an anemic 0.6% annual pace.

在加油站，原油涨至每桶150美元时就意味着汽油价格将突破每加仑4.50美元，这将为美国的汽车生产商、航空公司以及公用事业带来更多压力。这也有可能给华盛顿政界人士的争论火上浇油。在4月份，普通汽油的均价为每加仑3.46美元。

At the pump, $150 oil translates into gasoline prices of more than $4.50 a gallon, putting further strain on U.S. auto makers, airlines and utilities. It would also stoke the political debate in Washington. Regular grade gasoline in April averaged $3.46 a gallon.

石油行业观察人士说，大多数迹象表明油价将持续上涨。尽管有人称，是投机者为对冲美元的持续走软而推动油价走高，但是自4月第一周以来，美元兑欧元已累计升值大约2%，同期油价仍然上涨了10%。

Oil watchers say most signs point toward a continued increase in prices. Despite talk that speculators have driven up crude prices as a hedge against the slumping dollar, oil has rallied 10% since the first week in April while the dollar has risen about 2% against the euro.

更加不同寻常的是，油价仍能在美国市场需求大幅下降的情况下保持上涨势头。2月份美国石油需求降至每日1,970万桶，较2007年日均需求水平低100万桶。美国政府面向消费者推出的1,520亿美元的经济增长刺激计划或会推高该国石油需求，进而可能令全球石油市场供不应求的局面雪上加霜。

Even more unusual is that oil has maintained its upward momentum in the face of sharply diminished U.S. demand, which fell in February to 19.7 million barrels a day. That was down a million barrels a day from the 2007 average. An increase in U.S. demand, perhaps driven by the $152 billion in government stimulus payments to consumers, could crimp an already tight international oil market.

分析人士称，能够压低油价的主要因素有全球石油需求骤减，或者国际投资者从大宗商品市场突然撤离等。

The main factors that could send prices down, analysts say, would be a sharp downturn in global oil demand or some sudden flight from commodities among international investors.

Cambridge Energy Research Associates的董事长丹尼尔?尤金(Daniel Yergin)说，现在不是一只妖怪被放出了瓶子，而是100只妖怪被放了出来。尤金一贯以油价下跌的乐观预期而闻名，如今他的公司表示，油价在年内可能会上涨至每桶150美元。

'It's not that the genie is out of the bottle -- it's that 100 genies are out of the bottle,' said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Normally known for optimistic forecasts of lowering oil prices, Mr. Yergin's firm now says the price could rise to $150 a barrel this year.

尤金说，全球石油闲置产能不断降低仍是油价高企的最主要原因之一。根据大多数分析师的预测，眼下全球的原油安全缓冲──即在危急关头可以迅速被开采出来的原油量──大约是每日200万桶。这仅仅是全球日需求量的2.3%，而且几乎所有缓冲储备都集中在一个国家──沙特阿拉伯，这使得全世界石油市场很容易受到政治或其他问题的冲击。

The world's diminished spare production capacity remains the strongest single catalyst for high prices, Mr. Yergin says. The world's safety cushion -- the amount of readily available oil that could be pumped in a moment of crisis -- is now around two million barrels a day, according to most estimates. That's just 2.3% of daily demand, and nearly all of the safety cushion is in one country, Saudi Arabia. Everyone else is pretty much pumping all they can, which makes the world vulnerable to political or other shocks.

随着全球各大产油国不断传出令人沮丧的消息，石油市场也变得更易波动。石油输出国组织(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, 简称：欧佩克)的老牌成员印度尼西亚近日表示，它或许会在明年退出欧佩克，因为它的石油日产量不断下滑，已经降至20世纪90年代初顶峰时期（日产量170万桶）的一半以下。印度尼西亚自2004年以来一直是石油净进口国。

The oil market has become all the more skittish amid a raft of gloomy news from big oil producers. Indonesia, a longtime member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, says it may pull out of the cartel next year as its production continues to fall to less than half its peak of 1.7 million barrels a day in the early 1990s. Indonesia has been a net oil importer since 2004.

在尼日利亚，能源设施不断遭到武装袭击，石油工人的罢工上周才刚刚结束，这也进一步表明该国被称为“极不可靠的石油供应国”的确名副其实。各种破坏行动已经使该国至少四分之一的有效产能（每日约250万桶）被迫关闭。

In Nigeria, a series of militant attacks on energy infrastructure and an oil workers' strike that ended last week have added to the country's reputation as one of the most unreliable oil suppliers. Sabotage has shut down at least one quarter of Nigeria's effective pumping capacity of 2.5 million barrels a day.

一些非欧佩克成员的产油国也令石油市场失望不已，比如，墨西哥和俄罗斯等国投资不足以及油田老化的状况制约了原油产量。

The world oil market has also learned to be disappointed with non-OPEC producers, as underinvestment and aging oil fields in places such as Mexico and Russia have crimped crude production.

非欧佩克成员国的石油产量今年或许会增加约1%，低于很多分析师的预期。总部位于巴黎的国际能源署(International Energy Agency)今年4月再次调低了对非欧佩克成员国今年石油供应的前景预期，这个由石油消费国提供资金支持的组织把非欧佩克成员国石油日产量的预期下调了85,000桶，至5,050万桶。

Non-OPEC production may grow this year by about 1%, below many analysts' expectations. The Paris-based International Energy Agency, funded by consuming nations, in April again cut its 2008 non-OPEC supply outlook for the year, this time by 85,000 barrels a day to 50.5 million barrels a day.

在过去八个月中，欧佩克一直维持其产量目标不变，而且拒绝任何提高供应量的要求，即使原油价格自该机构去年9月提高产量以来已经上涨了54%。欧佩克当前最大的石油供应国沙特阿拉伯最近清楚地暗示，该国并无打算在2009年之后再增加产能。

OPEC has kept its production target unchanged for eight months and has rebuffed calls for more supply even though crude prices have increased 54% since the 13-nation group last raised its production target at a meeting in September. Saudi Arabia, the cartel's largest supplier by far, has sent strong signals recently that it doesn't see adding additional production capacity beyond 2009.

高盛在发给客户的一份报告中表示，该行认为眼下的能源危机或许正在走向顶点，因供应增速不足的问题正变得更加明显。该行称，原油平均价格可能会在明年触及每桶200美元，而这种预测在几个月前听来还显得有点 谱。

'We believe that the current energy crisis may be coming to a head, as a lack of adequate supply growth is becoming apparent,' Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients. The bank said oil could hit an average of $200 a barrel next year, a prediction that would have seemed outlandish just months ago.

美国能源部(U.S. Energy Department)现预测原油均价将在今年达到每桶109美元，较上月的预期提高了9美元。美国政府也提高了对汽油价格的预期，表示汽油均价将在6月触顶，达到每加仑3.73美元，较此前的预期高0.13美元。

The U.S. Energy Department now predicts that oil will average $109 a barrel this year, raising its forecast by $9 from last month. The government also raised its prediction for gasoline prices, saying they should peak at an average of $3.73 a gallon on average in June, 13 cents higher than its previous forecast.

这样的预期在三位美国总统竞选候选人中引发了激烈的论战。希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)和约翰?麦凯恩(John McCain)要求在夏季停收汽油税，以缓解消费者的压力。而巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)反对这个提议，认为这只是治标不治本。

Such forecasts have sparked a debate among the three major presidential candidates, with Sens. Hillary Clinton and John McCain calling for a gas-tax holiday over the summer to ease the pain for consumers. Sen. Barack Obama opposes the idea, calling it a quick fix that doesn't address the real problem.

Neil King Jr. / Spencer Swartz

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080507/ecb165644.asp

As Gas Costs Soar, Buyers Flock to Small Cars

By BILL VLASIC
Published: May 2, 2008

DETROIT — Soaring gas prices have turned the steady migration by Americans to smaller cars into a stampede.

In what industry analysts are calling a first, about one in five vehicles sold in the United States was a compact or subcompact car during April, based on monthly sales data released Thursday. Almost a decade ago, when sport utility vehicles were at their peak of popularity, only one in every eight vehicles sold was a small car.

The switch to smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles has been building in recent years, but has accelerated recently with the advent of $3.50-a-gallon gas. At the same time, sales of pickup trucks and large sport utility vehicles have dropped sharply.

In another first, fuel-sipping four-cylinder engines surpassed six-cylinder models in popularity in April.

“It’s easily the most dramatic segment shift I have witnessed in the market in my 31 years here,” said George Pipas, chief sales analyst for the Ford Motor Company.

The trend toward smaller and lighter vehicles with better mileage is a blow to Detroit automakers, which offer fewer such models than Asian carmakers like Toyota and Honda. Moreover, the decline of S.U.V.’s and pickups has curtailed the biggest source of profits for General Motors, Ford and Chrysler.

Once considered an unattractive and cheap alternative to large cars and S.U.V.’s, compacts have become the new star of the showroom at a time when overall industry sales are falling.

Sales of Toyota’s subcompact Yaris increased 46 percent, and Honda’s tiny Fit had a record month. Ford’s compact Focus model jumped 32 percent in April from a year earlier. All those models are rated at more than 30 miles per gallon for highway driving.

Dave Strom of South Boston, Va., recently bought a tiny Smart ForTwo Passion Coupe, made by Daimler, the German automaker.

Mr. Strom also owns a pickup truck, which he uses mainly to haul his boat. When he runs errands, he drives his Smart, which he says is getting 45 miles a gallon.

“I had to smile the other day when I filled my tank for $18 and the guy next to me had a Ford Explorer and the pump was clicking past $80,” said Mr. Strom, a 66-year-old retired manager of a Chevrolet dealership.

Previous spikes in sales of smaller cars were often a result of consumers trading down during tough economic conditions or gas-price increases. When the economy improved or fuel prices dropped again — as they did after the oil-price shocks in the 1970s eased — buyers invariably went back to bigger vehicles.

But with oil prices expected to remain high for years, auto industry executives are seeing a turning point.

“The era of the truck-based large S.U.V.’s is over,” said Michael Jackson, chief executive of AutoNation, the nation’s largest auto retailer.

Sales of traditional S.U.V.’s are down more than 25 percent this year. In April, for example, sales of G.M.’s Chevrolet Tahoe fell 35 percent.

Full-size pickup sales have fallen more than 15 percent this year, with Ford’s industry-leading F-Series pickup dropping 27 percent in April alone. Sales of pickups, though, are expected to strengthen with the economy, because of their use as commercial vehicles.

The rise in sales of more fuel-efficient vehicles occurred during one of the industry’s worst months in more than a decade. For the month, G.M. sales dropped 23 percent and Ford slid 19 percent, while Toyota fell by 5 percent. The figures were adjusted for the fact that this April had two more selling days than a year ago.

Another bright spot in the numbers were sales of so-called small crossovers — which look like little S.U.V.’s and are based on car underpinnings.

Like small cars, they also accounted for about 20 percent of the total industry sales for the month, according to the research firm J. D. Power & Associates.

The analysis by J. D. Power also showed that 42 percent of all vehicles sold in April were equipped with four-cylinder engines, compared with 38 percent for six-cylinder engines.

How the downsizing of America’s vehicle fleet will affect fuel consumption is still largely unknown. When gas prices rise, as they are now, many drivers simply drive less to save money.

But there are some indications that the trend toward smaller vehicles will reduce the nation’s fuel use. In California, motorists bought 4 percent less gasoline in January than they did the year before, a drop of more than 58 million gallons, according to the Oil Price Information Service.

“That is an incredible year-over-year drop,” said Tom Kloza, the organization’s chief oil analyst. “Some of it clearly has to do with changes in the vehicle fleet.”

Small cars have traditionally been favorites of young, first-time buyers attracted by their low prices. But sales have been creeping up since 2005, particularly among older baby-boomers whose children have grown.

Crossover vehicles have also drawn in empty-nesters who have less need for a large car, S.U.V. or minivan.

“The first of the baby boomers turned 62 this year, and they’ve started downsizing,” Mr. Pipas of Ford said.

The latest crop of small cars and crossovers also feature the creature comforts and safety features once found only in more expensive models.

Factor in the economic benefits of fuel-efficient engines, and small cars have not only become practical, but trendy as well.

“This shift appears to be a permanent situation,” said Jesse Toprak, chief industry analyst for the auto information Web site Edmunds.com. “These new products have become more fashionable, just like small, fuel-efficient cars are in Europe.”

The low prices on small cars are also luring consumers who are tightening their belts in an economic downturn.

“We wanted to have good fuel economy, but we were equally concerned about the price of the car,” said John Shelby of Phoenix, who recently purchased a Honda Fit for $15,600.

Smaller vehicles, though, mean smaller profit margins for automakers. The drop in pickup sales, because of the slowdown in the housing and construction industries, has been particularly painful for Detroit’s Big Three.

“It’s just a difficult truck market for everybody, ourselves included,” said Mark LaNeve, G.M.’s head of North American sales. “By and large, people are just staying out of that market.”

Automakers ignore the move to smaller vehicles at their own peril. G.M., for example, is playing catch-up by introducing a dozen new cars and crossovers in the next few model years.

With federal fuel-economy regulations increasing to 31.6 miles per gallon by 2015, car companies have another incentive to speed development of smaller vehicles.

“If you look at where the automakers are putting their resources into now, just about everything is going into small cars,” said Tom Libby, senior market analyst for J. D. Power.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/02/business/02auto.html?_r=1&th=&emc=th&pagewanted=all&oref=slogin

通用汽车第一财季净亏损32.5亿美元

2008年05月01日07:23

通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)周三表示，第一财政季度净亏损32.5亿美元，合每股亏损5.74美元；上年同期实现净利润6,200万美元，合每股收益11美分。

该公司表示，当季收入为427亿美元，低于上年同期的434亿美元。

通用汽车称，剔除支出项目，当季调整后亏损3.5亿美元，合每股亏损62美分；上年同期持续经营业务调整后亏损1,000万美元，合每股亏损1美分。

接受汤姆森-路透(Thomson Reuters)调查的分析师此前平均预计，该公司当季每股亏损1.60美元。分析师的预期通常不包括支出。

特殊项目对当季业绩共产生了29亿美元的不利影响。

通用汽车表示，全球汽车业务调整后的税前利润从上年同期的2.31亿美元升至3.92亿美元。

当季北美汽车业务调整后的税前亏损为6.11亿美元，上年同期为2.69亿美元。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080430/MKT213150.asp

埃克森美孚第一财季净利润增长17%

2008年05月02日07:13

埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)第一财政季度净利润增长17%，至108.9亿美元，合每股收益2.03美元，上年同期实现净利润92.8亿美元，合每股收益1.62美元，当季净利润上升主要受油价飙升及股票回购计划提振。

接受汤姆森-路透(Thomson Reuters)调查的分析师此前平均预计，该公司当季每股收益2.14美元。分析师的预期通常不包括特殊项目。

埃克森美孚还表示，当季收入从上年同期的872.2亿美元升至1,168.5亿美元。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080501/MKT222610.asp