OPEC's Mountain To Climb
由于原油期货价格正大幅上涨，一些原油多头仍然将原油期货市场视作步入天堂的天梯。但对周三刚刚宣布将日产量削减220万桶的石油输出国组织(OPEC, 简称：欧佩克)而言，这是一座必须要攀登的大山。
Some bulls still regard the oil futures market, showing sharply higher forward prices, as a stairway to heaven. To OPEC, though, which slashed its output quota by 2.2 million barrels per day Wednesday, it's a mountain to climb.
纽约商交所原油期货价格曲线目前向上显著倾斜，行内称为“升水”。2009年5月交割的原油期货合约价格目前报每桶52.50美元，较近月交割的一月合约溢价9美元以上。过去一个月溢价差扩大了5美元以上。2012年末到期的合约价格已经升破70美元。
The forward curve for Nymex crude prices currently slopes upward - known as a 'contango' - and is extraordinarily steep. At $52.50 per barrel, the May 2009 contract commands more than a $9 premium to the 'front month' or January contract. That spread has widened by over $5 in the past month. Further out, futures rise above $70 from late 2012.
不过，将价格曲线向上倾斜视为市场反弹的信号是一种误读。在某种程度上，曲线反映的是市场整体对价格走向的看法；但新手们应该知道的是，这主要反映了短期走势。纽约商交所未来6个月交割合约的未平仓头寸超过了未来8年半合约的总和。
To regard that upward slope as signaling a bounceback, however, is to misread the forward curve. Up to a point, it is an aggregation of market views on the direction of prices. But, for starters, it's very focused on the near term. There is more open interest in the first six months of Nymex contracts than the next eight-and-a-half years combined.
此外，期货价格也是相关成本的反映。现在，石油生产商租用油轮储藏过剩石油，成本要高于固定仓储费用。这些成本上升应当会反映在远期合约价格上涨中，从而导致期货升水幅度扩大。
Moreover, futures also reflect costs. Right now, oil producers are hiring tankers to store excess oil, a more expensive approach than fixed storage. Those higher charges ought to be reflected in higher priced forward oil contracts, steepening the contango.
与此同时，融资成本也在飙升。根据数据供应商Markit的资料，全球最大的大宗商品交易商之一嘉能可国际公司(Glencore International AG)所发行债券的信用违约保险成本目前高达2,800个基点左右。
Financing costs, meanwhile, have soared. For example, credit default insurance on the debt of Glencore International AG, one of the world's largest commodities traders, now costs about 2,800 basis points, according to data provider Markit.
远期合约价格较现货市场价格升水反映了这些上升的成本。对财力雄厚的石油巨头来说，这是一个好消息，它们仍然能够获得较低成本的融资。但这也使得期货曲线正在结束这一信息变得模糊不清。
Higher forward prices, relative to the spot market, reflect these increased costs. That is silver lining for well capitalized oil majors, which retain access to lower cost funding. But it also obscures the message the forward curve is ending.
由于是以名义价格计价，该曲线也容易受到通货膨胀预期的影响。因此，交割期最远的期货合约即2017年12月到期的合约，价格现在为77美元左右；假设平均通货膨胀率为1%，那么其实际价值就是71美元；如果通货膨胀率按3%计算，其现值就是59美元。这个区间很大。按情理来说，现在油价走低应当会遏制产油投资，意味着未来油价会更高。
Priced in nominal terms, the curve is also sensitive to inflation forecasts. So while the contract furthest out, December 2017, commands about $77, it is worth $71 in real terms, assuming average inflation of 1%. Assume 3%, and it's worth $59 in today's money. That's a big range. Intuitively, low prices today should curb investment, meaning dearer oil tomorrow.
但现在也没人知道不断萎缩的需求会在何处触底。欧佩克已经大幅下调产量配额以追随需求下滑势头，但从欧佩克成员国过去遵守的情况来看，这一举措的效果会受到影响。伊朗刚刚授权银行发行外债工具，这是一种绝望的表现。而委内瑞拉的主权信用评级连续遭到两次下调，该国正急切希望维持产量，享受其他成员国减产的好处。与此同时，非欧佩克成员国的俄罗斯所承诺的协调减产一直都是烟幕弹，现在也似乎即将完全消散。
But against that, no one knows where falling demand will bottom out. OPEC's savage quota cut, as it chases consumption downward, is undermined by a history of shaky compliance. Iran, which has, in a sign of desperation, just authorized its banks to issue foreign debt instruments, and Venezuela, having suffered a second downgrade to its sovereign credit rating, have strong temptation to keep pumping and free-ride off fellow cartel members. Meanwhile, non-member Russia's commitment to cut output in solidarity, always a smokescreen, appears to be dissipating entirely.
这些表明，即便欧佩克宣布减产且美元走软，油价仍会继续下跌。对那些因期货曲线上升而看涨油价的多头来说，他们就像在逆流而上。
It's telling that oil prices continue falling despite OPEC's announcement and a weakening dollar. For oil bulls riding that forward curve, it's like trying to walk up a down escalator.
Liam Denning
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