2008年12月30日星期二

世界油价是否反弹很大程度取决于中国

Rebound in Oil Prices? China Is the Wild Card

油价反弹会令消费者雪上加霜,而过去两天这种情况已经出现。

One development that could add to consumer woes would be a rebound in oil prices, which have bounced in the past couple of days.

但也存在一个油价反弹不会持久的充分理由,那就是中国的石油需求可能比许多人预计的要疲弱。

But there is a good reason to think the trend won't last: Oil demand in China may be softer than many expect.

中国政府最近发布的报告显示,中国商界人士的信心正在急剧下滑。上周晚些时候公布的新华财经/MNI中国企业信心调查结果显示,中国企业总体信心指数由11月份的39.9跌至12月份的35.2,连续第三个月创历史新低。这一调查针对中国152家公司的高层管理人士进行,信心指数低于50则表明企业总体信心转为负面。

A recent government report showed confidence among Chinese businessmen is waning rapidly. The sentiment index of the Xinhua Finance/MNI business survey, a poll of executives at 152 companies in China released late last week, hit a third consecutive record low in December, dropping to 35.2 from 39.9 in November. A reading of 50 indicates neutral sentiment.

另据美国独立石油分析师及中国市场观察人士Paul Ting估计,中国11月份的石油需求较上年同期减少了3.9%。他在周一发布的一份报告中写道,预计中国12月份的石油需求将比去年同期下降4.5%,他部分是基于中国炼油企业对石油的疲弱需求作出这一判断的。

Meanwhile, in November, oil demand in China was down 3.9% from a year ago, based on estimates by Paul Ting, an independent U.S.-based oil analyst and observer of Chinese markets. Mr. Ting wrote in a Monday report that he expects oil demand in December to decline 4.5% from last year to 7.4 million barrels a day, based in part on soft demand from Chinese oil refineries.

不过本月早些时候中国下调了燃油价格,这有可能提振中国的石油需求。中国政府将于1月初公布12月份原油进出口数据,将能让人们更多了解中国的石油需求情况。如果数据显示中国的石油需求依然疲弱,那人们就大可以认为油价短期内不会大幅上升了。

Still, earlier this month China slashed fuel prices, which could boost demand. In early January, the Chinese government's report on crude imports and exports for December will shed more light on oil demand in the country. If it continues to show weakness, that will be a good reason to think oil prices won't be zooming higher anytime soon.

Scott Patterson

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081230/inv113151.asp

上汽“欲以裁员为条件援助双龙”

韩国媒体说,上海汽车集团周日(28日)提出,以裁员2000人作为援助其子公司韩国双龙汽车公司的条件。

韩国《中央日报》引用一位未透露姓名的双龙公司前主管的话说,上汽集团方面提出,可以为双龙公司提供2亿美元(约2570亿韩元)的救济性资金援助。

但是,援助条件是双龙公司需从生产一线裁员2000人,这几乎占到该公司员工总人数的三分之一。

这名主管还说,双龙汽车现在的运营资金大约为100亿至200亿韩元,如果得不到上汽集团的援助,很难熬过明年1月份。

双龙公司在金融危机中举步维艰,这个月无法发出工资。但它还没有从母公司上汽集团得到任何援助。

韩国主要的信贷商韩国发展银行周五(12月26日)拒绝向双龙公司提供贷款,理由是中国母公司应该先进行救助。

双龙汽车公司共有7100名员工,其中5100名是生产线工人。

该公司工会方面对此表示,大股东将责任推卸给劳动者的做法是不恰当的。

双龙公司一名发言人则告诉法新社说:"我对提出的裁员要求并不知情。公司还没有实行任何结构调整方案。"

此前,上汽集团副董事长蒋志伟曾表示:"如果双龙汽车公司不进行结构调整,我们就不可能进行资金援助。"

2004年被上汽集团收购的双龙汽车集团已经连续四个季度资产负增长。12月17日以来,该公司已停产两星期。

根据上汽集团的判断,如果现有员工结构不改变,即使援助2亿美元,双龙公司也只能维持运营5到6个月。

有报道称,如果上汽集团提出的条件得不到满足,他们可能会放弃双龙汽车这家韩国子公司。

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7800000/newsid_7802600/7802668.stm

2008年12月26日星期五

无处不在的官僚主义

All (Chinese) Roads Lead to Bureaucracy

在我侨居中国的三年半时间里,日常生活中几乎每一方面都明显变得更加便捷了。我经历的“中国时刻”(China Moments)也越来越少了──这是一个许多外派来华的“前辈”警告过我的专有名词,即你被眼前的官僚折磨得一点办法都没有,只有自己抓狂的份儿。但这里也有让我急得恨不得大声叫嚷起来的例外状况,而这种情况大多和开车有关:办驾照、买车、出交通事故,而最近这一次是在我即将离开北京时卖车。

During my three and a half years in China, most aspects of day-to-day life became markedly easier. I had fewer and fewer of the 'China moments' many veteran expats warned me about early on -- those times when you bang your head against a frustrating bureaucracy until you just want to scream. Most of the exceptions -- the times I did want to scream -- involved driving: getting my driver's license, buying a car, having a traffic accident and, finally, on one of my very last days in Beijing, selling my car.

买家是我的朋友乔治?史密斯(George Smith)。当时陪同我们办理手续的是在《华尔街日报》任职多年的司机窦师傅,他在如何与政府官僚打交道方面很有一手,堪称我们的政府事务联络官;还有一位名叫高森的中国同事也与我们同行。

The buyer was my friend George Smith. We were accompanied by Mr. Dou, the Journal's long-time driver and government affairs liaison, who is a master at maneuvering through bureaucracy and getting things done, and WSJ researcher Gao Sen.

理论上讲,我们必须将车开到设在北京南城距我家约1小时车程的某二手车交易市场,在那里填写一些文件,让人把车检查一下,并把所有该盖的章都盖到。然后我们要折回头来去车管所完成最后的手续,三年前我就是在那栋庞大的楼里考驾照的。我琢磨了一下整个过程需要三到四个小时。

In theory, we just had to drive to the used car market in South Beijing, about an hour from my house, where we would fill out some paperwork, have the car examined and everything marked with the 'chop' of an official government stamp. Then we would double back to finalize the process at the Department of Motor Vehicles, the hulking office building where I took my driver's test three years ago. I figured the whole outing would take three or four hours.

第一个麻烦来了:窦师傅居然找不到那个市场了,要知道他从来不迷路的!最后我们终于把车停下后才发现通往市场入口的辅路上排满了人,他们当中有的要买车有的要卖车,甚至还有人在卖牌照。我们终于驶进了巨大的停车场,并围着这个巨大的建筑群转圈,穿过了正在接受检查的半挂牵引车,它们的驾驶室向上掀起,还有数十辆也在接受检查的小汽车。

The first sign of trouble came when Mr. Dou couldn't find the market -- he never gets lost! When we finally pulled up, the driveway to the entrance was lined with guys trying to buy or sell cars, and even a few selling license plates. We entered the massive parking lot and circled the huge complex, passing tractor trailers being inspected, their cabs tipped upwards, and dozens of cars being similarly checked out.

后面一小群年轻女子指着我们看不同的队伍,显然是在招揽生意,不过我不知道她们在兜售些什么。高森告诉我说她们要50块钱(约合7美元)来帮我们排队。我对这个价钱没问题,于是窦师傅就找了位他信得过的女士。

In the rear, a small army of young women pointed us into different lanes, clearly jostling for our business, though I didn't understand what they were selling. 'They want 50 yuan (about $7) to help us with the process,' Gao Sen explained. I OK'd the expense and Mr. Dou seemed to have found a woman he trusted.

我们跟着她穿过一个大型车辆展室,走入了一个满是人的地方。这里到处都是长椅,玻璃文件架排成了后面的两堵墙。一长溜小桌子将这个办公中心和展厅分开,每个桌子旁边都坐了三四个人,雇佣他们的公司也雇佣了门外招揽生意的那些女子。给我们带路的女士将我们领到一张桌前,她要了我们的护照、车辆登记信息,然后就开始填写从桌上拿到的若干份文件。我才意识到这些女士并非拉拉生意那么简单,她们自己就是登记中介公司的工作代表。

We followed her inside as she strode with purpose across the back of a large car showroom and crossed into a large space teeming with people. The center was filled with benches and the two rear walls were lined with bulletproof-glass-enclosed cubbyholes. In the middle of the room, bisecting it and dividing the office from the showroom, was a long row of small tables, each staffed with three or four people, representing different companies who employed the women outside. She took us to one of the tables, took our passports and the car registration information and began filling out a stack of papers she pulled from the desk. I realized that the women searching for customers outside were representatives of legit, registered companies, not freelance hustlers.

这位女士在房间内奔忙着,我们则费力地跟着她的步点,被她带到了一个窗口前。她把我们的所有文件都递交进去,里面的一名男子审看了一番,把文件敲了一堆图章后又递出来。高森对乔治和我说,我们可以留在楼下,由他和窦师傅上楼去完成一些手续。十分钟后他俩回来了,我们又返回那个办事窗口。我心想,“这挺有意思,还算不错。”我们都想早点把事办完,因为乔治稍晚还有个约会,而我则需要与我的乐队一道出席一个公司聚会──《华尔街日报》中文网的读者见面会,我可不想把这次活动搞得一团糟。

She blazed across the room, with us struggling to keep up, and approached a window. She handed over all the paperwork, a man looked it over, stamped a lot of things and handed it back. Gao Sen told George and I we could stay downstairs while the two of them went upstairs to finish some things. Ten minutes later they were back and we returned to the window. 'This was interesting,' I thought, 'And not too bad.' This was a relief because George had an appointment later and I needed to front my band at a corporate party -- for the Wall Street Journal Chinese-language Web site, one show I did not want to screw up.

接下来我却听到了一连串的“不可以”。我凑过去想搞清楚究竟发生了什么事,只听窗口里的那位工作人员说“数字不对......不能......问题......”,我忙问是怎么回事。

Then I started hearing a lot of 'bu kuye' ('can't do'). I leaned in close to try to figure out what was going on and heard the clerk saying 'wrong number… can't do…problem…' I asked what was going on.

高森解释说,“你登记的护照号码和你护照上的号码不一样。”

'The passport number on your registration is different than that on your passport,' Gao Sen explained.

“我换了本新护照,”我回答说。

'I got a new passport,' I replied.

“老护照你带了吗?”

'Do you have the old one with you?'

“没有。我们还能过户吗?”

'No. Can we still do this?'

“可以,但这得先要车辆管理所批准。”

'Yes, but we have to go to the DMV first to get approval.'

于是我们又坐进汽车,驱车半小时来到车管所。这时已是中午12点半,正是午饭时间,车管所的办公大厅里基本空无一人。只有一位女工作人员在值班。她把我们递上的文件都看了一遍,而我也听到了那个如有魔力般的词──可以。她把我们的文件收拢在一起,放进一个密封的塑料信封,然后就丢在一边不管了。

We piled back into the van and drove back the half hour to the DMV. It was 12:30 -- lunchtime -- and the room was virtually empty. One female officer was working alone. She looked everything over and I heard the magic word -- 'kuye' ('can do.') Then she took all the documents, threw them into a sealed plastic envelope and tossed them aside.

高森说,“我们能办,但负责盖章的人吃午饭去了,他要45分钟后回来。”

'We can do it but he guy who can chop this is at lunch,' Gao Sen said. 'He will be back in 45 minutes.'

我们又回到车上,驾车沿着条狭窄、弯曲的路去找吃午饭的地方,路旁的人行道上满是放学的中小学生。窦师傅说他担心可能找不到合适的餐馆。“南城是北京最穷的地方,”他解释说。我们向他保证自己不是挑三拣四的人,于是大家去了一家卖美味手 面的小餐馆。

We got back in a van and set off in search of our own lunch driving down a narrow, twisty road, the sidewalks lined with elementary- and middle-school students. Mr. Dou said he was worried about finding a suitable restaurant. 'South Beijing is the poorest part of the city,' he explained. We assured him we weren't picky and we found a little restaurant with delicious handmade noodles.

我们1点45分返回车管所,事情办理得出奇迅速,很快我们就行驶在回二手车市场的路上了。这一横生枝节至少让我们多花了两小时,但事情还是有进展的。我们找到了那位替我们代办手续的女士,她一路小跑着抓紧办各种手续,不到一小时就把一切都办妥了。

We returned at 1:45, received our chop surprisingly quickly and were soon on our way back to the market. The extra detour had taken up at least two hours, but we were making progress. We found our lady and she ran around with great speed and efficiency and had everything ready to go in under an hour.

我们又二次来到车管所,花10块钱让一个人把我的车牌拿下、交上去,把几份文件送进去敲图章,然后文件又被送出来作了番在我们看来敷衍了事的审核。事情几乎就要办完了!或许我们接下来去干预定的事还不会太迟。

Back at the DMV a second time, we had to pay a guy 10 yuan to take our plates off, turn them in, have a few documents chopped and be sent back outside for what we thought was a cursory inspection. We were almost there! Maybe we wouldn't be too late after all.

有人来给我的车拍了张照片,还有人检查了车门上的认证号码,以确定我卖的确实是登记的那辆车。在工作人员办这些事的时候,我们走进他们污秽、狭小的办公室等待。我不经意间往屋外一看,见有七个身穿黑制服的人正围在车前打开的引擎盖边看着什么。情况可能不妙。

Someone took a picture of the car while someone else did an etching of the vehicle identification number on the door to verify I was selling the right car. We went inside the greasy little office as all this was processed. I thought we were wrapping up but then I looked out and saw seven guys with black overalls and clipboards standing around the car's open hood. This could not be good.

我上前打探消息,恰好听到其中领头的那位说出“不可以”三个字。高森问这些人我们该怎么“解决问题”。

It was time to stick my nose in. I walked over just in time to hear the lead inspector saying 'bu kuye' and Gao Sen asking how we could 'fix the problem.'

我则问出什么事了。

I asked what the problem was.

高森说,“他们找不到发动机序列号。”

'They can't find the engine serial number,' he replied.

到此为止,我们为车辆过户已经花了近六个小时,太阳正在西坠,乔治和我全没了好心情。他已赶不上赴约,而一位司机此时正驾车行驶在去我家的路上,按约定他要把我和我的音响系统送到我们乐队演出的地方。

At this point, the outing had already taken close to six hours, the sun was setting and both George and I were losing our good cheer. He was missing his appointment, and a driver was already on his way to my home to pick up me and my sound system and return us to my band's show.

时间在一分一秒的流逝,我的神经已经疲惫,手指和脚趾都冻麻了。虽然我极力让自己保持冷静──特别是在有可能因一场冲突而丢脸的官员们面前,但我还是发火了:“我需要把这事办完!”我用中文喊叫道。“可以!可以!我一整天没干别的事。我赔了很多钱。我很快就要回美国了,我今天必须把这辆车卖掉。我再抽不出一天时间了,你们可以把这件事办完!”

My clock was ticking, my nerves were frayed and my toes and fingers numb from the cold. Despite always striving to keep my cool -- especially with officials who could lose face in a confrontation -- I lost my temper: 'I need to have this!' I screamed in Chinese. 'Kuye! Kuye! I did not work for one whole day. I lost a lot of money. Soon I will go to America and I must sell this car today! I do not have another day. You can do this!'

这几个人面面相觑,然后对我说只有他们的领导能决定是否让我给车过户。我们走进办公室。这位身穿制服的警察看上去不是善茬,他不像是个可以通融或吃我这套的人。在高森向这位警官作解释时我选择了默不作声。高森说我是个重要的外国人,要去参加一项重要的外事活动。

They all looked at one another then back at me and said only the boss could approve. We trooped inside. The boss was an officious looking, uniformed policeman who did not look likely to bend the rules or appreciate my rants. I kept quiet as Gao Sen explained that I was an important foreigner with important foreign affairs to attend to.

这位警官把我打量了一番。我试图作出重要人物的样子, 但可惜我那天没刮胡子,身上只随便穿了件旧T恤衫。他拿出了图章和红印泥盒,在一份文件上签字后又把图章在上面盖了两三次,然后一脸冰霜地将文件交给了我们。我高兴坏了。

The officer looked me over. I tried to look important but was unshaven and slovenly in an old T-shirt. He took out his chop and his red ink pad, signed a paper and chopped it two or three times before handing it over without a hint of a smile. I was elated.

我们一路小跑着回到车管所主楼,高森和窦师傅将全部文件都交了上去,不一会新车牌就发到了乔治手里。我们来到楼外,又给那个人十块钱让他把新车牌安上,然后大家坐上车打道回府。车辆过户花了我们将近八小时。

We trotted back into he main building. Gao Sen and Mr. Dou handed over all the paperwork, and moments later George was handed new plates. We went back outside, paid the same guy 10 yuan to install the plates, climbed back in and headed for home. The whole thing had taken almost eight hours.

这件事至少让我在启程回国前能与乔治聚一聚。我对他说,“这件事的教训是,永远别卖车给你不喜欢的人。”

At least I got to spend some time with George before departing Beijing for good. 'The moral of the story,' I told him, 'is never sell a car here to someone you don't like.'

我再也不会抱怨新泽西的车辆管理所了。

I will never again complain about the New Jersey DMV.

Alan Paul

(编者按:本文作者Alan Paul是《吉他世界》(Guitar World)的高级编辑,同时也为美国篮球杂志《灌篮》(Slam)撰写文章。因妻子工作需要,他举家从美国新泽西州迁往中国,现居北京。他的电子邮件是expatlife@dowjones.com。)

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081226/exp082413.asp

2008年12月25日星期四

马自达6:动荡期的理性选择

A Sane Sedan for Seesaw Times

一辆新车往往是你所购买的所有商品中第二昂贵的,而货币的贬值则会令买车的经济负担变得更加沉重。因此就很容易理解为什么当前的汽车销售量如此低迷了。从金融危机到波动的燃油价格,现在唯一可以确定的就是这个国家的不确定性达到了历史高点。但是如果你必须要买一辆新车呢?如果是我的话,就会考虑传统风格的中型轿车。

A new vehicle is often the second most expensive thing you'll ever purchase -- and depreciation can make it even more costly. Which makes it pretty easy to understand why auto sales are so bad right now. From the financial collapse to seesaw gas prices, the only thing that seems certain today is the record level of national uncertainty. But what if you absolutely need a new car? I'd consider that old standby, the midsize sedan.

与其他类型的汽车相比,中型轿车的市场竞争更加激烈,也有更多的好车。从销量排行三甲的型号--丰田凯美瑞(Toyota Camry)、本田雅阁(Honda Accord)、日产Altima(Nissan Altima)--到复活的雪佛兰Malibu(Chevrolet Malibu)和被低估的现代索纳塔(Hyundai Sonata)。现在你可以把马自达(Mazda)重新设计的2009款马自达6(Mazda 6)也加入这个名单了。前轮驱动的马自达6配备了2.5升的四缸引擎,或3.7升的V6引擎。基本型号的价格为19,220美元,但配备所有功能的顶级型号要达到3万美元。

There are more good cars in this category than any other, from the three top sellers -- the Toyota Camry, Honda Accord and Nissan Altima -- to the resurgent Chevrolet Malibu and underrated Hyundai Sonata. And now you can add Mazda's redesigned 2009 Mazda6 to the list. Powered by either a 2.5-liter four-cylinder or a 3.7-liter V6 engine, the front-wheel-drive Mazda6 has a base price of just $19,220, though a loaded example can top $30,000.

中型轿车显然是这个越来越疯狂的世界中最理性的选择。忘记那些过于昂贵的“跨界(Crossover)”多用途汽车以及它们糟糕的油耗;别再费力计算混合动力轿车的长期回报;彻底无视那些卡车和越野车(SUV)。考虑到具备了传统的5座空间,合理的油耗,和比其他类型汽车更出色的价值定位,中型轿车毫无疑问构成了汽车市场的主力军。

Midsize sedans are clearly the sanest choice in this increasingly insane world. Forget about overpriced 'crossovers' and their weak fuel economy, don't bother trying to calculate the future payback on a hybrid and by all means ignore the deals on trucks and SUVs. With legitimate five-passenger seating, the potential for reasonable fuel economy and a better value proposition than any other kind of vehicle, it's no wonder midsize sedans form the backbone of the car market.

2003年刚上市的老款马自达6算不上是主流。它的外观设计非常不错,但狭小的后排座椅却是致命的缺点。马自达对这两方面因素的考虑在新款轿车上都得到了体现。对运动风格的强调和较硬的悬挂系统被原封不动的移植到新车上。新车的操控非常灵敏,驾驶员得到的回馈也在平均水准之上,标配的6速手动变速箱搭配了间距较小,但档位非常清晰的排挡杆。

The old Mazda6 was a fringe player from its debut as a 2003 model, its singular appeal being exceptional handling, while a small back seat served as its Achilles' heel. Mazda has addressed both issues in the new model. The emphasis on sporty driving and firm-riding suspension has made the transition to the new car intact. The steering feels quick and offers above-average feedback, and the standard six-speed manual transmission engages with short and necessarily precise throws of the shifter.

总体而言,新款马自达6比老款更加注重驾驶乐趣,尽管新车加长半英尺,增重150磅的设计有些奇怪。实际上马自达6已经从个头最小的中型轿车之一,变成了最大的之一,结果是车内多出6立方英尺的乘客空间。如果只从车内空间的大小来衡量实惠与否,那马自达6就值得推荐了。

On the whole, the car feels even more targeted at driving enthusiasts than before, which seems a bit odd considering the new model is half a foot longer and about 150 pounds heavier. Indeed, the Mazda6 has grown from one of the smallest midsize cars to one of the biggest, gaining six cubic feet of passenger volume in the process. But if you're looking for bang-for-the-buck measured strictly in roominess, the Mazda6 can now be considered.

我测试了配备170马力4缸引擎的型号。它的动力十足,在使用选配的5档自动变速箱的情况下,美国环保署(EPA)的油耗评级为24mpg(英里/加仑)。这种程度的油耗虽然很普通,但也算是为将来可能出现的油价攀升上了一个保险,尤其是和配备了V6引擎的20mpg相比。既然和V6引擎相比4缸引擎既可以减少20%的油耗,还能便宜3000美元,这样一来选择哪款引擎就显而易见了。千万不要被马力数字迷惑,V6引擎对于一辆中型轿车来说并不是必须的。

I tested the 170-horsepower four-cylinder model, which offers ample power and a combined EPA rating of 24 miles per gallon when equipped with the optional five-speed automatic. This sort of fuel economy is nothing special, but it is something of an insurance policy against the next gas spike, especially compared with the V6 model's 20-mpg rating. Since you can get fully 20% better fuel economy by choosing the four-cylinder version, while saving nearly $3,000, it's an easy choice. Don't succumb to the red mist of horsepower: There's just no compelling reason to choose a six-cylinder engine in a midsize car.

从外形设计的角度来看,马自达6的确是非常出众。它融合了表亲马自达RX-8和MX-5跑车的运动元素,在前轮上方使用了巨大的弧形轮廓。这种设计以前并没有收到太好的效果,但用在体积较大的新马自达6身上显得非常抢眼。车身的侧线延伸到前脸,狂放与优雅两种风格在这里得到了完美的平衡。

From a styling standpoint, the Mazda6 makes a distinctive exterior statement. The car resembles its cousins, Mazda's RX-8 and MX-5 sports cars, in deploying huge arched fenders over the front wheels. While this design has not quite worked before, on the larger sedan it looks brilliant, tough and stylish and perfectly balanced by a character line down the side of the car that sweeps up to form the lip of the trunk.

与外形相比,马自达6的内饰并没有如此精心的设计,是一个典型的“仿豪华轿车”。闪亮的金属外观装饰看上去只会感觉廉价,印有图案的塑料也不像木质内饰,不同纹理和色彩的塑料内饰搭配起来并不出色。

If only the inside were as well conceived. Instead it's a perfect example of 'imitation luxury car,' with a usual result: The shiny metal-look trim seems nothing more than cheap, the patterned plastic that could be imitating wood isn't, and the different textures and shades of plastic make nothing more than a pusillanimous pastiche.

另外在此价位区间的大多数新款车型都有一个通病,就是糟糕的工效学设计。这使得人们对马自达6的评价变得更低。新款马自达6的按钮式点火装置安装在中控台的排挡杆后面,并且行车电脑的控制按钮从正面看都隐藏在方向盘的后面了。坦白讲,做出这一设计的马自达工程团队应该被发配去开发脚垫。(或许这也一样危险。经销商们还是用扔进去脚垫来表示价格敲定了,不是吗?)

While I have a similar complaint with most new cars in this price range, poor ergonomics sink the Mazda6 even lower in esteem. The engineering team that decided to put the push-button starter behind the shifter on the face of the center console, while locating the controls for the trip computer on the opposite side of the steering wheel from the display, honestly deserves to be reassigned to developing floor mats. (Or perhaps that's just as dangerous. Dealers still throw in floor mats to seal the deal, right?)

说实话,最重要的其实还是价格,它是评判交通工具时最重要的变量。所以,尽管去选择马自达6吧,因为它的运动风格(或是选择丰田是因为它的流行,选择本田是因为它的声誉,选择日产是因为它的价值,选择现代是为了它的质保,或者选择雪弗兰是为了支持国货)。但是在作出决定前一定要先试驾一下其他的类似车型。现在有太多的中型轿车可以让你慢慢挑选,毕竟大环境不好。

But honestly, the most important thing here is the deal, that crucial variable in evaluating transportation appliances. So go ahead and chose the Mazda because it's sporty (or the Toyota because it's popular, the Honda because of its reputation, the Nissan for its value, the Hyundai for the warranty or the Chevy out of patriotism) but make sure you drive the others first. There are too many good midsize cars out there not to be picky, especially in today's climate.

JEFF SABATINI

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081224/trv152334.asp

2008年12月23日星期二

丰田70年来首次出现亏损

Toyota Sees First Loss in 70 Years

丰田汽车(Toyota Motor Corp.)预计将自1938年以来首次出现年度营运亏损,凸显出困扰汽车业的问题正蔓延至美国以外的地区,让实力最强的一些汽车厂商也付出了代价。

Toyota Motor Corp. forecast its first annual operating loss since 1938, a dramatic indicator that the troubles roiling the auto industry extend beyond the U.S. and are taking a toll on even the strongest car makers.

这家日本市值最大的公司表示,预计截至明年3月31日的本财年合并报表的营运亏损为1,500亿日圆(约合16.8亿美元),原因是美国、欧洲和日本汽车需求下滑以及日圆兑美元的升值。六周前,该公司刚刚将本财年营运利润预期下调至6,000亿日圆,而上个财年实现营运利润2.27万亿日圆。

Japan's biggest company by market cap said it expects consolidated operating loss of 150 billion yen, or about $1.68 billion, in the fiscal year through March 31, hurt by sliding demand in the U.S., Europe and Japan and the rising yen against the dollar. The revision came just six weeks after Toyota revised down its operating profit forecast to 600 billion yen for the current year, compared with 2.27 trillion yen posted in the year ended March 31, 2008.

成立于1937年的丰田汽车表示,在利息收入和关联企业派息的提振下,预计本财年将实现净利润500亿日圆。这尚且不到此前预期的5,500亿日圆的十分之一。该公司上个财政年度实现净利润1.72万亿日圆。

Toyota, established in 1937, said it expects to book a net profit for the current fiscal year of 50 billion yen, helped by interest income and dividend from affiliates. That's less than a tenth of its previous forecast of 550 billion yen; it posted 1.72 trillion yen net profit in the year-earlier period.

丰田汽车接连两次下调收益预期,反映出汽车业整个的经营状况都在迅速恶化,通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)等美国汽车厂商的业务状况最先亮起了红灯。通用一直以来都是丰田在争夺世界汽车销量头把交椅的有力竞争对手。在上周末从美国政府获得临时救助之前,通用汽车曾警告称,可能会在本财年结束前面临现金短缺问题。

The two revisions in quick succession reflect the rapidly deteriorating business conditions across the industry that brought warnings from U.S. auto makers like General Motors Corp., Toyota's traditional rival in the chase to be the world's biggest car maker by sales. GM had warned it might run out of cash by the end of the fiscal year before securing a temporary bailout from the U.S. government late last week.

丰田黯淡的收益预期很可能会对日本整个出口型经济带来扩散效应。该公司是日本的出口领头羊,也是日本企业实力的代表。由于丰田在业内还被视为是高效率的典范,该公司本财年无法在汽车生产上创造可观利润可能会给整个行业带来寒意。

The grave forecasts by Toyota, Japan's flagship exporter and a bellwether of Japan's corporate strength, will likely have ripple effects throughout Japan's export-dependent economy. Since Toyota is also viewed within the auto industry as a model of efficiency, its inability to generate substantial profit from making cars this fiscal year may send a chill through the whole sector.

丰田总裁渡边捷昭(Katsuaki Watanabe)在新闻发布会上表示,这是一场我们从未经历过的紧急状况,周围的环境非常严峻。

'It's a kind of emergency that we've never experienced before,' said Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe, speaking at a news conference. 'The environment surrounding us is extremely harsh.'

日本有关部门周一称,11月该国出口以创纪录的降幅下滑,主要原因是对欧美的汽车和汽车配件出口剧减。周一,日本还下调了经济预期,表示由于很多经济行业以极高的速度下滑,日本经济在近7年来首次出现恶化。

On Monday, Japan said exports dropped by their sharpest rate on record in November, due mainly to falling shipments of cars and automobile parts to the U.S. and Europe. Also on Monday, Japan cut its view on the economy and described it as 'worsening' for the first time in almost seven years due to deterioration of many economic sectors at an exceptionally high pace.

渡边捷昭说,迅速变化的市场形势令公司很难预测明年的业务情况。他警告说,现在还无法得知市场底部在哪儿。不过他说希望丰田能实现营运利润。丰田已经在日本工厂实施减产和裁减临时工,希望藉此降低成本,而且还推迟了在密西西比州等地的新工厂投资。该厂原本计划于2010年5月开始生产颇为成功的普锐斯(Prius)混合动力轿车。

Mr. Watanabe said the rapidly changing market conditions make it difficult to predict its business next year, warning: 'It's not yet possible to tell where the market's bottom will be.' Still, he said he hopes Toyota can turn an operating profit. The company has already sought to cut costs by scaling back production and laying off temporary workers at factories in Japan, as well as postponing new factory investments in places like Mississippi, where it was scheduled to start producing its successful Prius hybrid sedan in May 2010.

预计能从这场席卷了整个汽车业的低迷中逃离的公司寥寥无几。周一,小型车厂商铃木汽车(Suzuki Motor Corp.)和丰田子公司大发汽车公司(Daihatsu Motor Co.)均宣布进行新一轮减产,而轮胎制造商普利司通轮胎公司(Bridgestone Corp.)也因销量下滑而下调了收益预期。上周,在日本销量仅次于丰田的第二大汽车厂商本田汽车(Honda Motor Co.)也在两个月中第二次下调收益预期。与此同时,韩国现代汽车(Hyundai Motor Co.)和起亚汽车(Kia Motors Corp.)周一将2008年联合销售预期下调12.5%,并表示由于汽车需求下滑,它们将冻结管理人士薪酬。

Few are expected to escape the downturn slicing through the auto sector: On Monday, small car specialist Suzuki Motor Corp. and Toyota subsidiary Daihatsu Motor Co. both announced fresh production cuts, while tire maker Bridgestone Corp. also lowered its financial forecasts on sliding sales. Last week, Honda Motor Co., Japan's second-biggest auto maker by sales after Toyota, also cut forecasts for the second time in two months. In South Korea, meanwhile, Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Motors Corp. cut their joint 2008 sales forecast by 12.5% Monday and said they would freeze pay for managers amid slumping vehicle demand.

除面临汽车销量下滑之外,与其他日本大型出口商一样,丰田也受到了日圆兑其他主要货币大幅升值的冲击。坚挺的日圆意味着以美元和欧元计价的销售额在丰田的帐面上会“缩水”。

As well as a slowdown in vehicle sales, Toyota, like other Japanese major exporters, has been hurt by the yen's sharp gains against other major currencies. A strong yen means sales in dollars and euros are worth less in Toyota's books.

丰田还将收入预期从23万亿日圆下调至21.5万亿日圆。同时该公司还将全球汽车销量从此前预期的824万辆下调至754万辆,降幅8.5%。

Toyota also reduced its revenue projection to 21.5 trillion yen from 23 trillion yen. This reduction is in line with a cut in its estimates for global vehicle sales to 7.54 million in the fiscal year, down 8.5% from the 8.24 million it previously expected to sell.

丰田下调收益预期是在闭市后宣布的。周一,丰田股票收于每股2,895日圆,跌5日圆。

Toyota announced its forecasts after the close of markets. On Monday, Toyota's shares closed at 2,895 yen, down 5 yen.

经济低迷还重创了韩国的汽车制造商。现代汽车和起亚汽车在一份声明中表示,它们现在预期本年度总销量达420万辆,此前的预期为480万辆。两公司称,与此同时,海外库存预计将达106万辆。

The economic downturn has also hit South Korean car makers. Hyundai and Kia said in a statement that they now expect total sales to reach 4.2 million vehicles this year, compared with an earlier forecast of 4.8 million. Overseas inventories, meanwhile, are expected to reach 1.06 million vehicles, they said.

这两家在韩国汽车业占统治地位的公司组建了世界第五大汽车集团。起亚为现代汽车的一个关联企业。

The two companies, which dominate the South Korean car industry, form the world's fifth-biggest automotive group. Kia is a Hyundai affiliate.

除冻结管理人士薪酬之外,现代汽车还表示,将从本周开始缩短两个生产基地的工作时间,其中一个基地生产公共汽车。现代汽车本月早些时候自1998年以来首次缩短了加班时间。

In addition to freezing management pay, Hyundai said it will curtail working hours at two production sites, including one that manufactures buses, beginning this week. Hyundai earlier this month slashed overtime for the first time since 1998.

声明表示,这两家公司启动了紧急管理结构来克服危机。

The two automakers were in an 'emergency management structure to overcome the crisis,' the statement said.

与此同时,韩国最小的汽车厂商双龙汽车公司(Ssangyong Motor Co.)称,可能无法按时支付12月份的工资,原因是受到了眼下这场银行和金融压力的波及。中国上海汽车工业(集团)总公司持有双龙汽车的多数股权。

Meanwhile, Ssangyong Motor Co., the country's smallest automaker, said it may not be able to meet its December payroll on time. Ssangyong, majority owned by China's Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp., cited fallout from ongoing banking and financial pressures.

Yoshio Takahashi / Juro Osawa

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081223/ffe101027.asp

丰田汽车身陷困境,底特律无心窃喜

以往如果丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)的日子不好过了,那美国的汽车制造商们不禁就要窃喜。

周一这家日本汽车制造商因汽车销售放缓而发布了利润预警,但这次对它的美国竞争对手来说绝对不是什么好消息。

丰田的股东们现在担心的是派息还有没有戏,而通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)的股东要是只用担心这个就谢天谢地了。虽然白宫上周五宣布将向汽车制造商提供紧急贷款,同时就算工会和债权人作出重大让步,通用汽车还是要与疲软的市场苦苦抗争。

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)分析师罗德?拉奇(Rod Lache)估算,如果2010年之前通用汽车北美业务的固定成本能够下降23%,那么当年整个美国汽车市场的销售仍然需要达到1,300万辆通用汽车才能实现盈亏平衡,这还是得在该公司的能保住其市场占有率的情况下。

经季节性因素调整后,今年轻型车的年销售量大概只能达到1,000万辆。美国轻型车年销售的趋势水平往往在1,500万-1,600万辆左右。但近几年的数据可能会有一些水分,因为获得汽车贷款变得容易了,这无疑会在一定程度上促进汽车销售。展望未来,汽车销售的趋势水平可能要降下来一些,因为眼下消费者还指望手上的旧车能再开上一阵子。

而丰田汽车发布预警令这本已黯淡的汽车业前景再添一丝寒意,更使这种气氛在全球弥漫开来。上周五为美国政府的救助计划(通用汽车股价当日飙升23%)而欢欣鼓舞的股票投资者看来开心不了几天了。

Liam Denning

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081223/hrd102622.asp

汽车业救助方案 竹篮打水一场空?

有时,艰难的抉择必须依靠外力的推动,这就是破产法庭的好处所在。只有在破产法庭法官的要求下,投资人、债权人、员工和公司管理者才能达成平时难以达成的妥协。

但是,美国政府不希望通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)和克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)走上这条道路。美国政府为这两家公司提供了174亿美元的临时救助贷款,或称过渡性贷款,希望推动它们实现重组。

虽然保护美国经济不受汽车企业破产的冲击可能十分必要,但是实行的难度也很高。

难点之一在于,如何让债券持有人按照救助方案的要求将三分之二的债券转换为新股票。如果是破产,这将是标准的作法,但在破产法庭之外,却难以单方面地促成此事。

有些债券持有人会观望等待更优惠的条件。另外一些债券持有人则可能完全拒绝,因为他们认为破产将无法避免,新股票将毫无价值。全美汽车工人联合会(United Auto Workers, 简称UAW)拒绝让步可能会使债券持有人也对重组方案持反对态度。

通用汽车发言人表示,公司认识到,债券持有人的担心会是影响重组的一个障碍;但是,由于重组的目标是要打造一个更为强大、生命力更强的公司,很多债券持有人最终可能会赞同上述方案。

此外,部分通用汽车公司债券契约条款规定,在一定的条件下,作为新债券发行一部分的国内制造资产留置权要求现有债券持有人必须接受类似的证券。这可能使无担保债券的持有人变成有担保债权人,从而降低他们处理这些债券的积极性。目前还不清楚这一条款的实施效果。

可以明确的是,政府的贷款不能保证这些汽车公司能够存活下来。此次过渡性贷款援助也许会以失败告终。

David Reilly

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081222/hrd104501.asp

2008年12月21日星期日

奥巴马促美国汽车生产商“改革”

美国候任总统奥巴马欢迎政府斥巨资救助汽车制造业的决定,但同时敦促汽车生产商进行改革。

美国总统布什星期五(12月19日)宣布政府将向通用汽车以及克莱斯勒公司提供总额174亿美元的援助款,以帮助他们避免倒闭的命运。

奥巴马承认这一援助措施是“必要”的,有助避免美国汽车制造业的整体垮塌。

但他同时提醒有关汽车制造商不要浪费这一机会,对管理手法进行改革。

政府承诺首期援助款将在年底前到位,通用汽车将得到94亿美元,克莱斯勒将得到40亿美元,随后政府将再向有关公司注资40亿美元。

福特公司则表示,希望现在还不至于马上需要得到救济。

经济危机

布什在宣布救助方案时指出,虽然他本人一向信奉自由市场原则,但听任美国汽车制造业在金融危机下崩溃并非负责任的做法。

他要求汽车生产商解决自身的架构问题。这些问题包括工资水平高于竞争对手,以及为付给退休员工养老金和医疗补助而造成的庞大负担。

援助资金来自美国政府此前宣布为拯救银行业所准备的7000亿美元,因此不需要经过国会的批准。

此前被称为美国汽车制造业三巨头的福特、通用以及克莱斯勒公司提出希望国家提供140亿美元援助款,但遭国会拒绝。

从整体角度看,这笔援助款不是一个很大的数目。通用汽车一个月的销售额就可以达到这个数字。

但是,目前美国汽车业形势严峻。美国人一般贷款买车。如今经济衰退,金融机构不愿贷款,普通人也不再借贷。短期的问题也加剧了长期的结构危机。

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7790000/newsid_7793100/7793130.stm

2008年12月20日星期六

中国近两年来首次调低成品油价格

中国近两年来首次下调成品油批发及零售价格,当局此前也公布了进一步的成品油价格改革措施。

据中国国家发展和改革委员会公布,从星期五(12月19日)凌晨起,汽、柴油出厂价格每吨降低900元和1100元人民币;航空煤油出厂价格每吨降低2400元。

与此同时,汽、柴油最高零售价格比目前零售上限价格每吨降低1160元和1270元。

在此之前,中国国务院星期四(18日)公布了《关于实施成品油价格和税费改革的通知》,从元旦起实施以从价燃油税取代现有养路杂费的政策。

国务院还决定实行国内成品油价格与国家市场院油价格“有限制的间接接轨”,以国际市场原油价格为基础,加国内平均加工成本、税收、流动环节费用和适当利润确定。

不过在1998年首次呼吁中国成品油改革、在其价格上加税的英国布鲁奈尔大学高级经济学讲师刘芍佳指出,这仍不代表中国的燃油市场开放,与国际做法接轨。

刘芍佳博士告诉BBC中文部说,加税并不等于把油价开放,因为以后的燃油价格还将是由国家发改委来制定的。

在价格调整后,汽油出厂价格为每吨5580元;柴油出厂价格为4970元。两者减幅分别为13.88%和18.12%。

航空煤油新价为每吨5050元,降幅达32.12%。

燃油税公平化

据国务院的《通知》规定,自2009年1月1日起,中国取消原有征收的公路养路费、航道养护费等征费,并同时将价内征收的汽油消费税单位税额从每生0.2元提高到1元;柴油消费税从每生0.1元提高到0.8元。

刘芍佳认为,从公平合理的角度来说,这次改革算是一个“双赢”的局面,尤其如果当中已经含有一个“污染成本”的话。

刘芍佳说:“对尤其是不开车的人来讲,他的空气被污染了,谁向他索赔?那么通过税的调节,能够对这部分不开车的人进行补偿。”

刘芍佳指出,这次发改委下调燃油价格后,跟国际油价仍存在差距,而国务院马上把差额转化成征税,这样将不会为中国经济带来太大的冲击和影响。

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7790000/newsid_7791000/7791084.stm

布什宣布出资拯救美国汽车生产商

为帮助美国三大汽车生产商度过难关,布什总统宣布了一项短期援助计划,但是也附加了严苛的条件。

从现在起到明年三月底,三家汽车生产商 -- 通用、福特和克莱斯勒将得到174亿美元的资金。但是他们司必须忍痛进行重组,否则必须退回援助款。

从整体角度看,布什政府拿出的174亿援助款不是一个很大的数目。通用汽车一个月的销售额就可以达到这个数字。

但是,目前美国汽车业形势严峻。美国人一般贷款购车,如今经济衰退,金融机构不愿出贷款,普通人也不再借贷。

短期的问题也加剧了长期的结构危机。

布什表示,美国汽车生产商拿了救援款就必须解决自身的架构问题。这些问题包括工资水平高于竞争对手,以及付给退休员工的养老金和医疗补助。

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7790000/newsid_7792400/7792477.stm

2008年12月19日星期五

白宫考虑让美国汽车业有监管的破产

布什政府正在考虑用有监管的破产方法来解决美国汽车制造商面临的危机。

白宫新闻秘书说,尽管仍然有许多难题,但决定即将做出。

此前,美国著名汽车制造商通用汽车、克莱斯利和福特公司要求国会批准140亿美元贷款,帮助它们渡过目前的危机,避免破产。

现在,白宫的这一最新消息肯定不会让美国汽车行业高兴。

布什政府早先的态度似乎暗示,会动用一项为帮助银行业对付金融危机的巨额基金,向这三家大汽车制造商提供紧急贷款。

但现在看来白宫的态度已经改变了。政府的贷款仍然是可能的,但是除此之外又出现了别的考虑,其中包括在政府监管下有秩序地破产。

白宫的新闻秘书说,可以通过有秩序的方法进行破产程序,这样做会达到软着陆的效果。

按照美国的法规,破产和无力偿还债务这两者之间有很大的区别。

破产的企业会仍然存在,由它的债权人谈判代表重组企业。

所以如果这三家公司正式破产的话,汽车公司、债权人和工会都将作出重大妥协,以保证公司长期存在。

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7790000/newsid_7790800/7790830.stm

欧佩克攀爬油价高山

OPEC's Mountain To Climb

由于原油期货价格正大幅上涨,一些原油多头仍然将原油期货市场视作步入天堂的天梯。但对周三刚刚宣布将日产量削减220万桶的石油输出国组织(OPEC, 简称:欧佩克)而言,这是一座必须要攀登的大山。

Some bulls still regard the oil futures market, showing sharply higher forward prices, as a stairway to heaven. To OPEC, though, which slashed its output quota by 2.2 million barrels per day Wednesday, it's a mountain to climb.

纽约商交所原油期货价格曲线目前向上显著倾斜,行内称为“升水”。2009年5月交割的原油期货合约价格目前报每桶52.50美元,较近月交割的一月合约溢价9美元以上。过去一个月溢价差扩大了5美元以上。2012年末到期的合约价格已经升破70美元。

The forward curve for Nymex crude prices currently slopes upward - known as a 'contango' - and is extraordinarily steep. At $52.50 per barrel, the May 2009 contract commands more than a $9 premium to the 'front month' or January contract. That spread has widened by over $5 in the past month. Further out, futures rise above $70 from late 2012.

不过,将价格曲线向上倾斜视为市场反弹的信号是一种误读。在某种程度上,曲线反映的是市场整体对价格走向的看法;但新手们应该知道的是,这主要反映了短期走势。纽约商交所未来6个月交割合约的未平仓头寸超过了未来8年半合约的总和。

To regard that upward slope as signaling a bounceback, however, is to misread the forward curve. Up to a point, it is an aggregation of market views on the direction of prices. But, for starters, it's very focused on the near term. There is more open interest in the first six months of Nymex contracts than the next eight-and-a-half years combined.

此外,期货价格也是相关成本的反映。现在,石油生产商租用油轮储藏过剩石油,成本要高于固定仓储费用。这些成本上升应当会反映在远期合约价格上涨中,从而导致期货升水幅度扩大。

Moreover, futures also reflect costs. Right now, oil producers are hiring tankers to store excess oil, a more expensive approach than fixed storage. Those higher charges ought to be reflected in higher priced forward oil contracts, steepening the contango.

与此同时,融资成本也在飙升。根据数据供应商Markit的资料,全球最大的大宗商品交易商之一嘉能可国际公司(Glencore International AG)所发行债券的信用违约保险成本目前高达2,800个基点左右。

Financing costs, meanwhile, have soared. For example, credit default insurance on the debt of Glencore International AG, one of the world's largest commodities traders, now costs about 2,800 basis points, according to data provider Markit.

远期合约价格较现货市场价格升水反映了这些上升的成本。对财力雄厚的石油巨头来说,这是一个好消息,它们仍然能够获得较低成本的融资。但这也使得期货曲线正在结束这一信息变得模糊不清。

Higher forward prices, relative to the spot market, reflect these increased costs. That is silver lining for well capitalized oil majors, which retain access to lower cost funding. But it also obscures the message the forward curve is ending.

由于是以名义价格计价,该曲线也容易受到通货膨胀预期的影响。因此,交割期最远的期货合约即2017年12月到期的合约,价格现在为77美元左右;假设平均通货膨胀率为1%,那么其实际价值就是71美元;如果通货膨胀率按3%计算,其现值就是59美元。这个区间很大。按情理来说,现在油价走低应当会遏制产油投资,意味着未来油价会更高。

Priced in nominal terms, the curve is also sensitive to inflation forecasts. So while the contract furthest out, December 2017, commands about $77, it is worth $71 in real terms, assuming average inflation of 1%. Assume 3%, and it's worth $59 in today's money. That's a big range. Intuitively, low prices today should curb investment, meaning dearer oil tomorrow.

但现在也没人知道不断萎缩的需求会在何处触底。欧佩克已经大幅下调产量配额以追随需求下滑势头,但从欧佩克成员国过去遵守的情况来看,这一举措的效果会受到影响。伊朗刚刚授权银行发行外债工具,这是一种绝望的表现。而委内瑞拉的主权信用评级连续遭到两次下调,该国正急切希望维持产量,享受其他成员国减产的好处。与此同时,非欧佩克成员国的俄罗斯所承诺的协调减产一直都是烟幕弹,现在也似乎即将完全消散。

But against that, no one knows where falling demand will bottom out. OPEC's savage quota cut, as it chases consumption downward, is undermined by a history of shaky compliance. Iran, which has, in a sign of desperation, just authorized its banks to issue foreign debt instruments, and Venezuela, having suffered a second downgrade to its sovereign credit rating, have strong temptation to keep pumping and free-ride off fellow cartel members. Meanwhile, non-member Russia's commitment to cut output in solidarity, always a smokescreen, appears to be dissipating entirely.

这些表明,即便欧佩克宣布减产且美元走软,油价仍会继续下跌。对那些因期货曲线上升而看涨油价的多头来说,他们就像在逆流而上。

It's telling that oil prices continue falling despite OPEC's announcement and a weakening dollar. For oil bulls riding that forward curve, it's like trying to walk up a down escalator.

Liam Denning

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081218/hrd183651.asp

2008年12月18日星期四

本田公司警告盈利将大幅下降

日本本田公司总裁警告说,汽车工业面临的困境可能会进一步恶化,而且没有好转的迹象。

本田总裁是在该公司发布利润警告时讲这番话的。本田说,公司今年的利润将仅是去年的三分之一。

正像日本的另两家大的汽车公司丰田与尼桑一样,本田历来以高效率和全球化令行业人士羡慕。

但是,即使这样也不能使本田免予陷入目前汽车行业所面临的危机。

本田在最新的一次公司纯利润的预告中说,它将可能降至大约20亿美元,也就是说还不到去年三分之一的水平。

本田已经减少了在北美和欧洲工厂的产量, 现在本田说还将要把在日本的汽车产量再减少五万四千辆。

本田是国际汽车行业的佼佼者,虽然它在印度和南美的市场仍在增长,但其总的销售量受全球信贷危机的影响,预期将放缓。

与此同时,本田最近还决定退出一级方程式赛车的竞赛,本田说以目前该公司的财政状况来说,体育赛车似乎已是昂贵的奢侈品。

公司的经理阶层也被告知他们的工资将预计会减少10%。

日元升值,雪上加霜

此外,本田面临的最大的挑战将是如何对待日元升值的问题。目前日元兑美元的汇率达到了13年以来的最高点。

这对象本田这样的汽车出口商来说非常不利,而美国最近的减息可能会导致日元的再次升值。

然而,尽管本田的行业状况急剧恶化,但至少它还可以营利。

但同美国的竞争对手克莱斯勒以及通用汽车相比,本田仍处于优势。

美国这两家公司正在寻求美国政府的帮助,以使他们摆脱濒于破产的命运。

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7780000/newsid_7787300/7787342.stm

2008年12月16日星期二

比亚迪将推出首款国产电动车

BYD To Unveil China's First Electric Car

中国汽车制造商比亚迪股份计划推出首款面向大众市场的国产电动车,比世界各地厂商做出的推广电动车的类似举措早了至少一年。

A Chinese auto maker plans to unveil the country's first homegrown electric vehicle for the mass market, at least a year ahead of similar efforts around the world to popularize such plug-in cars.

比亚迪计划周一在深圳市向媒体展示新款F3DM,这款电动车的电池可以用普通插座进行充电。比亚迪高管Henry Li表示,该公司本月开始向出租车运营商和其他潜在车队客户销售F3DM,并计划月底前向公众展示。比亚迪计划最早于2010年下半年开始在美国市场销售这款电动车。

On Monday, BYD Co. plans to show reporters in this southern Chinese city the new F3DM, which runs off batteries that can be charged from a regular electrical outlet. BYD began marketing the F3DM this month to cab operators and other potential fleet customers, and plans to have it in showrooms by the end of this month, said Henry Li, a senior company executive. BYD plans to sell the car in the U.S. market as early as the second half of 2010.

这无疑是项重大考验:像中国这样的国家,通过鼓励私营企业和消费者,能多快地将一项昂贵的新汽车动力技术带入主流社会?中国政府出台了建造电池充电站等公共基础设施的计划,同时还打算向汽车厂商提供研发补贴,向消费者提供减税等激励措施,希望以此来支持电动车的发展。

BYD's effort is a big test of how quickly a country like China can bring into the mainstream a costly new automotive propulsion technology by prodding the private sector and the consumer. China's government intends to support the electric vehicle push through research-and-development subsidies for auto makers and tax breaks and other incentives for consumers, as well as with plans to build battery-charge stations and other public infrastructure.

尽管F3DM本质上是款电动车,但它也配有一个小型汽油发动机。不过与近年来推广的混合动力车不同的是,这款电动车的发动机只有在电池耗光时才会被用来发电。

Though essentially an electric car, the F3DM also has a small gasoline engine, but unlike the hybrid vehicles that have been popularized in recent years its engine is used to generate electricity only if the battery runs dry.

有些人质疑说,向电动车的跨越在中国是否说得通,理由之一是中国大部分电力产自污染严重的火电厂。不过,比亚迪及其电动车竞争对手认为,尽管如此电动车仍能很快在中国成为替代汽油车的可靠车型。据比亚迪的Henry Li说,该公司计划2009年销售多达1万辆电动车。美国投资家巴菲特(Warren Buffett)今年早些时候通过一家他持多数股权的公司向比亚迪投资2.3亿美元,获得该公司10%的股份。

Some people question whether the leap to electric cars makes sense in China, in part because most of China's electricity comes from 'dirty' coal-burning power plants. BYD and its electric-car rivals believe the car can nonetheless quickly become a credible alternative to gasoline cars here. BYD plans to sell as many as 10,000 F3DMs in 2009, according to Mr. Li. American investor Warren Buffett earlier this year invested $230 million through a company he majority-owns to take a 10% stake in BYD.

比亚迪F3DM彰显了中国和印度的新兴汽车厂商给发达国家那些正在疲于应对销量下滑的老牌汽车厂家带来的潜在挑战。通用汽车(General Motors)和丰田汽车(Toyota Motor)均在开发类似的电池驱动车。但是,丰田要到2009年底才会推出自己的电动车,而且计划在美国和日本而不在中国销售。通用汽车预计将于2010年底在美国推出大力宣传的雪佛兰Chevy Volt,不过该公司的财务困难给该计划的前景蒙上了阴影。

The F3DM underscores the potential challenge from new auto makers from China and India to established car companies in the developed world, just as they are struggling with sales declines. General Motors Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp. are both developing similar battery-powered cars. But Toyota won't launch its version until late 2009 and plans to sell it in the U.S. and Japan, not in China. GM is expected to launch its heavily promoted Chevy Volt in late 2010 in the U.S., but the American company's financial struggles have left the future of that effort unclear.

虽然丰田和通用都没有透露旗下电动车的预期售价,但是通用的管理人士私下里曾表示,该公司的电动车售价可能在4万美元甚至更高。F3DM的价格不到人民币15万元(合2.2万美元)。比亚迪的一位管理人士称,比亚迪电动车的价格最低可达人民币12万元,在中国普通中型轿车中属于价格较低的。

While neither Toyota nor GM has disclosed the selling price of their electric cars, officials at GM have said privately its car could sell for $40,000, or possibly more. The F3DM is to be priced at less than 150,000 yuan, or about $22,000. A BYD manager said it could be priced as low as 120,000 yuan, toward the low end of the price range for a typical midsize sedan in China.

丰田驻北京的一位销售高管说,F3DM可能没有西方和日本的老牌汽车厂商设计的电动车所具有的平顺性和质量,但是中国企业能制造出售价人民币15万元的电动车还是令我震惊;无论我们怎么努力,我们都无法制造出那种价位的电动车。

The F3DM 'probably doesn't have the ride and the quality of an electric car designed by any of the more-established auto makers in the West and Japan, but it just stuns me that a Chinese company can make a car like that for 150,000 yuan,' said a senior Toyota sales executive in Beijing. 'No matter how much we try, we couldn't make a car like that.'

日产汽车(Nissan Motor)北京研发总经理Tsunehiko Nakagawa在一次接受采访时说,该公司认为,到2020年电驱车最多可达中国汽车总销量的三成,这主要归功于政府对电动车的支持。日产汽车正在考虑最早于2012年在中国推出电动车。

Nissan Motor Co., which is weighing the launch of an electric car in China as early as 2012, believes that battery-powered cars could account for as much as 30% of all automobile sales in China by 2020, thanks mainly to government support for such vehicles, said Nissan's Beijing R&D general manager Tsunehiko Nakagawa in an interview.

1995年比亚迪成立之初主要从事电池生产,2005年开始制造常规型汽车。公司首席执行长王传福表示,电动车已经成为该公司的主要战略焦点。

BYD started out as a battery maker in 1995, and began making conventional cars in 2005. Chief Executive Wang Chuanfu said electric cars are already his company's 'main strategic focus.'

包括上海汽车工业(集团)总公司在内的其他中国汽车厂商也在开展电动车的研制工作。不过比亚迪是最早进入这一领域的,如今已经成为中国新能源汽车的“典型代表”。比亚迪总部所在的深圳市预计周一将宣布首批购买24辆F3DM,之后可能还会买进更多。

Other Chinese auto makers, including Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp., are also working on electric cars. But BYD was the earliest, and has emerged as China's poster child for new-energy vehicles. The city of Shenzhen, where BYD is headquartered, is expected to announce Monday that it is buying two dozen F3DMs initially, and possible more later.

中国2006年发布的“十一五”规划强调了投资电动车的重要性。规划提出,中国需要加快发展拥有自主知识产权的汽车发动机、电池、汽车电子、关键总成及零部件。政府没有公布这方面的投资规模。

The Chinese government's current five-year economic plan, issued in 2006, highlights the importance of investing in electric cars. It says that China needs to accelerate R&D 'of our own intellectual-property rights in electric motors, batteries, electronics, assembly know-how, and other primary components.' The government hasn't said how much it will spend.

除了政府的支持以及F3DM自身相对低价之外,这款电动车的燃油经济性也可能让它颇具吸引力。这款车一次充电后可以在几乎不消耗汽油的情况下跑49-61英里(合80-100公里)。丰田普锐斯(Prius)油电混合动力车在加速的时候要利用发电机辅助汽油发动机,每加仑汽油可以跑40-45英里。比亚迪称,利用普通家用插头给F3DM充电,充满一次需要7个小时;在专用快速电池充电站,可以在10分钟内充一半电。

Aside from government help and the car's relatively low price, the F3DM's fuel economy could make it attractive. The car can go roughly 49 to 61 miles, or 80 to 100 kilometers, on a single charge while using almost no gasoline. The Toyota Prius gasoline-electric hybrid, which uses an electric motor to assist its gasoline engine when accelerating, gets 40 to 45 miles per gallon of gas. It takes seven hours to fully charge the F3DM using a regular household electric outlet; it can be charged to 50% in 10 minutes at a dedicated quick-battery-charge station, according to the company.

中国的市场条件令政府的支持对替代燃料车在中国获得成功至关重要。据日产汽车进行的研究,零排放或低排放的电动车预计对中国减少二氧化碳排放的贡献微乎其微。这是因为中国的大部分发电厂都是火电厂,二氧化碳的排放水平很高。二氧化碳被广泛认为是导致全球变暖的一大原因。

China's market conditions make government backing essential for alternative-fuel cars to succeed here. According to a study by Nissan, zero- or low-emission cars that run on electricity are expected to make little to no contribution in China in reducing carbon-dioxide emissions, widely believed to be a cause for global warming. That's because a majority of power plants in China burn coal and emit high levels of CO2.

除此之外,目前中国对需要充电的电动车而设置的基础设施很少。一位中国消费者在一个比亚迪网上俱乐部中留言说,我很喜欢F3DM,但是我家里没有车库,我住在四楼,我怎么才能给车充电呢?比亚迪称,该公司正与第三方协商投资充电站事宜。

What's more, the country currently has minimal infrastructure for cars that need to be plugged in. 'I like the F3DM very much,' one Chinese consumer wrote in a message on an online club devoted to BYD. 'But I don't have a garage at home. I live on the 4th floor. How can I charge it?' BYD said it is talking to third parties to invest in charge stations.

尽管如此,日产汽车仍对中国电动车的前景持乐观态度。日产的Nakagawa说,中国当前的基础设施可能还没有为电动车做好准备,但是我们相信,随着政府用补贴鼓励汽车厂商投资,消费者购买电动车,电动车的时代将会到来。

Still Nissan remains keen on the outlook for electric cars in China. 'China's infrastructure may not be ready for electric vehicles today, but we believe the era of the electric vehicle will come nonetheless as the government prods auto makers and consumers to invest and buy electric vehicles with subsidies,' said Nissan's Mr. Nakagawa.

Norihiko Shirouzu

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081216/ffe083300.asp

汽车业救助法案隐含的风险

Auto Bailout's Hidden Danger

任何魔术的成功关键都是,把观众的注意力从魔术师真正在做的动作上转移开。

The key to any magic trick is to focus the audience's attention away from where the action is actually taking place.

这正是国会在它封杀的汽车业救助法案中所做的。从这部法案的字面上看,它似乎要维护三大汽车公司现有债权人的权益,同时也要避免纳税人救助底特律三巨头的资金打水漂。而事实上,这份法案让债券投资者看到了一个令其不寒而栗的前景:在极端情况下,政府有可能将传统的破产清算程序来个大倒转。

That is what Congress did in the failed auto bailout bill. Language in the proposed legislation seemed to uphold the rights of existing car-company creditors while also protecting any taxpayer funds used to prop up Detroit. In reality, the bill raised a chilling prospect for debt investors: that in extreme situations the government could upend the traditional pecking order of the bankruptcy process.

这有可能使信贷市场更加不稳定,而一年多来美国政府一直在努力解冻这一市场。不良投资研究机构Aurelius Capital的负责人布罗德斯基(Mark Brodsky)说,如果一家机构想向另一家公司提供有担保贷款,它就不能忽视这一事态发展。他说,汽车业救助法案使市场的不确定性大增。

The result could be further instability in credit markets, which the government has been trying to thaw for more than a year. 'If someone is thinking of providing a secured loan to another company, they can't ignore this development,' said Mark Brodsky, head of Aurelius Capital, which focuses on distressed investments. 'It introduces a tremendous amount of uncertainty.'

汽车业救助法案之所以会涉及债权人权益,原因是政府计划在被救助汽车公司发生破产的情况下,政府投入的救助资金将被最优先偿还。对于纳税人来说,这样做似乎是不言而喻的。他们显然不想承担比银行更大的风险。但此举与企业债务的偿还次序甚至美国宪法都有可能存在抵触,按照现有规定,优先债权人的资产是以破产企业的资产做抵押的。

Creditors' rights became an issue in the proposed automotive bailout because the government planned to put its money first in line for repayment in the event of bankruptcy. That seems like a no-brainer for taxpayers. They clearly wouldn't want to shoulder losses before banks. But such a move could contravene the way corporate debt structures work and possibly the U.S. Constitution since senior lenders have their debt secured against company assets.

为了回应来自银行业的反对声音,国会议员们对已在众议院通过的救助法案作了妥协性修改,不过修改后的法案似乎已被参议院封杀。从修改后法案的字面上看,有担保的优先债权人债务在偿还次序上排在政府贷款之前。

In response to opposition from the banks, legislators compromised in the bailout bill originally passed by the House of Representatives, but which appears to have died in the Senate. The new language ostensibly made any government loan subordinate to senior, secured lenders.

问题解决了?没那么简单。政府一只手给予的又被它用另一只手收回了。政府还对所有政府贷款施加了一些特别的保护措施。

Problem solved? Not quite. What the government gave with one hand, it took with the other. It also added in some extraordinary protections for any government loans.

根据汽车业救助法案中的一项条款,如果被救助企业发生破产,政府将可立即提出偿债要求,而按照常规,在法院完成破产企业资产的分割前,债权人是不得提出偿债要求的。救助法案还明文规定,偿还政府的贷款时不能打折扣,而破产企业在偿还债务时是经常打折扣的。

These included a provision that, in the case of bankruptcy, the government would be exempt from a legal stay, which freezes creditor claims until the court divides up the assets. It also included language saying the government's loans couldn't be haircut, as often happens to debts in bankruptcy.

芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)法学院教授皮克尔(Randy Picker)说,这些保护措施意味着,政府在任何破产案中都将占据优先收回贷款的有利位置。他说,政府在破产时拥有豁免权,不受延期偿债条款约束,这一条尤其重要,因为它使得其他债权人只能眼睁睁看着政府先把自己贷出去的钱收回来。

These protections mean that in any bankruptcy, the government 'would have a strong blocking position that is going to make them the dominant player,' said Randy Picker, a professor at the University of Chicago Law School. The exemption from a stay in bankruptcy is especially significant, he adds, because it would let the government seize assets when everyone else has to stand put.

事实上,汽车业救助法案的条文创建了一种新的债权级别,那些拥有担保债券的优先债权人只能退居其次。现在谁要想投资最终可能需政府救助的产业所发行的债券,他们必须将这种可能性牢记于心。

In effect, the language creates a new kind of debt and subordinates the senior, secured holders. That is a possible outcome debt investors now have to keep in mind when investing in industries the government may ultimately have to prop up.

由于当前这场金融危机,债券投资者已经对从信贷评级到银行资产负债表上资产的价值等所有东西都失去了信心。如果美国政府想让市场恢复正常运行,它最不应该做的就是让已如惊弓之鸟的投资者再添忧虑。

The financial crisis already has shaken the confidence of debt investors in everything from ratings to asset values on bank balance sheets. If the government wants to get markets working again, the last thing it needs to do is give these already skittish investors yet another reason to worry.

David Reilly

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081215/hrd133252.asp

2008年12月15日星期一

Detroit Gets Access to Bailout Funds

By JOHN D. MCKINNON, DEBORAH SOLOMON and GREG HITT

WASHINGTON -- Throwing a lifeline to Detroit's ailing automakers, the White House reversed course Friday and said it would consider using the $700 billion financial-rescue plan to avert a bankruptcy of the Big Three that could deepen the U.S. recession.

The announcement came hours after negotiations collapsed in Congress over a compromise bailout plan fiercely opposed by Senate Republicans. That package would have set up $14 billion in loans to the companies and a government-run restructuring process.

The loans to be offered could be more limited than the $14 billion that Congress was contemplating -- perhaps closer to $8 billion, one person familiar with the situation said. General Motors Corp. would be a recipient, this person said. GM is hoping President George W. Bush will come through with about $10 billion to keep the company going. It warned Congress it needed at least $4 billion by the end of the month.

It wasn't clear whether loans would be made available to Chrysler LLC, which is controlled by private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management. Cerberus came in for heavy criticism during the recent debate for not bailing out its own company. Ford Motor Co. has said all along it doesn't need a short-term lifeline, but could need help if one of its peers keeled over.

The White House's intervention showed how heavily the question of the president's legacy is weighing over his last few weeks in office. White House officials worried that the collapse of one or more domestic auto company, perhaps the last crisis Mr. Bush will confront as president, could cause a surge in job losses, worsening the current recession.

As early as Wednesday, during a private meeting with senators, Vice President Dick Cheney told lawmakers the Republicans didn't want to be remembered as the party of Herbert Hoover for allowing a company such as GM to collapse, according to people familiar with the matter.

By signaling that Treasury bailout funds could be an option, the White House made it easier for Republicans to walk away from negotiations, creating an environment in which they could push for deep concessions from the United Auto Workers union. That license contributed to the seesawing negotiations of the past week as Congress veered from agreement to disunity, with union concessions a major point of disagreement.

For now, the biggest question for the White House is whether it will be able to extract any of the cost-saving concessions it had been seeking from the car companies, their unions and other interested parties. The Bush administration is beginning the process of examining the companies' books to figure out how much money is needed and intends to obtain protections for taxpayers.

The Big Three directly employ almost 250,000, according to an administration estimate, and also support about one million retirees and their spouses, not counting the vast network of suppliers and dealers whose businesses are intertwined. In all, administration officials estimate that the failure of the U.S. auto makers would cost the economy more than one million jobs and would reduce economic output by more than 1%, significantly prolonging the downturn.

"We think that the current weakened state of the economy is such that it could not withstand a body blow like a disorderly bankruptcy in the auto industry," White House spokeswoman Dana Perino told reporters aboard Air Force One Friday. "We'll have to take another look at what they [the companies] might need and how we might be able to provide that as a short-term mechanism to help prevent a disorderly bankruptcy that we think could devastate further an already very weak economy."

GM recently started working with bankruptcy specialists to make contingency plans in case a Chapter 11 filing becomes necessary. It is also trying to cut costs. On Friday, GM said it will temporarily close 20 North American factories in reaction to declining auto sales. It now expects to make 250,000 fewer vehicles in the first quarter compared to the first three months of last year.

On Friday, Chrysler Chief Executive Bob Nardelli implored employees to do all they can to save money to keep the company afloat while it lobbies the Bush administration for emergency loans.

In an email to workers, Mr. Nardelli hinted Chrysler is hoping for a better reception when President-elect Barack Obama is in office. "Key members of the incoming administration are aware of the importance of addressing the short-term and long-term viability of our industry and our company," he wrote.

The failure of Congress to act creates a mess for the administration. The White House must now wade into the muddy task of structuring an auto bailout, which will drain the Treasury's fast-dwindling supply of funds, while figuring out whether to ask Congress for the second half of the promised financial rescue money. Congress has doled out the rescue funds in installments and would likely return to Washington to debate the matter.

The Treasury wants to avoid a messy political battle with an increasingly hostile Congress. Even the spectacle of a failed effort to block the next $350 billion could spook already fragile financial markets.

The administration said that in the wake of the legislation's collapse, it would consider "other options" for helping Detroit, including use of the Troubled Asset Relief Program as well as other unspecified possibilities. The White House decision reverses Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's longstanding position that the funds be used to help only financial institutions. Treasury officials -- and others in the administration -- worry about opening TARP to an array of other non-financial companies seeking cash. The line of industries seeking federal funds is growing as state governments, transit agencies, insurers and others clamor for a piece of the pie.

Mr. Paulson could potentially circumvent the need to ask for the second installment by diverting some of the $250 billion slated for capital injections, of which Treasury has committed just $161 billion to 53 banks. Treasury has completed 80% of the loan applications it's received from the banks' primary regulators. While additional applications are likely still pending at the regulators, those are unlikely to eat up a significant portion of the remaining $89 billion.

Democratic congressional leaders had suggested for weeks the White House use TARP money to aid the auto industry. Administration officials instead settled on a strategy that required Congress amend a $25 billion program originally intended to help car makers build environmentally friendly vehicles. One advantage of that strategy was that the retooling program required the companies to be financially viable in order to qualify for the loans, a provision that helped wring concessions from the UAW.

From the beginning, the auto rescue was weighed down by the $700 billion fund that might now save it. Winning additional funds for Detroit was never going to be easy, said Sen. John Thune (R., S.D.), because many lawmakers felt they "got hammered pretty hard" over the $700 billion fund, by constituents who viewed it as a giveaway to the banking industry.

The push for a rescue package gained steam a week ago, when top Democrats and the White House agreed on a compromise. The House approved the plan Wednesday, but the package faltered in the Senate the next day amid strong objections lodged by Republicans. They used the opportunity to demand deep concessions from labor unions, including a commitment to bring wages in line with those at U.S. operations for foreign-based producers such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co. The dispute broke apart the talks and spilled onto the Senate floor, where leaders of both parties declared the effort dead Thursday.

—Neal E. Boudette contributed to this article.
Write to John D. McKinnon at john.mckinnon@wsj.com, Deborah Solomon at deborah.solomon@wsj.com and Greg Hitt at greg.hitt@wsj.com

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122909133751001705.html

2008年12月13日星期六

白宫有意另寻途径拨款援助汽车工业

在美国国会未能通过140亿美元援助汽车工业款项之后,白宫表示愿意考虑其他的替代方案。

周四(12月10日),美国国会的共和党参议员不同意汽车工会联合会成员的减薪方式。

这使得协商破裂,而白宫的游说也未能奏效。

布什政府原先一直反对从总额7000亿美元的金融援助款项中,拨出部份用来拯救摇摇欲坠的美国汽车行业。

但是在参议院未能通过拨款援助之后,如今想法有所改变。白宫发言人佩里诺说,白宫现在会考虑以其他的方式拨款援助汽车工业。

佩里诺说,要是让汽车工业这么"突然"地崩溃,是不负责任的行为,而且还会进一步令美国的经济衰弱、更加地不稳定。

现在担心的是,如果不紧急拨款的话,美国三大汽车巨头当中的克莱斯勒和通用汽车可能撑不到今年年底。

有关提供140亿美元贷款的协商已经破裂,这是因为共和党参议员无法和汽车工会联合会就工会成员在何时减薪以及减薪幅度达成共识。

白宫则呼吁有关各方能够做出"有意义"的让步。

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7780000/newsid_7780400/7780466.stm

受全球经济冲击 中国汽车销量降幅大

在目前全球经济低迷的大环境下,中国汽车销售量也大幅降低。

中国在今年11月的汽车销售量比去年同比下降14.6%,这个数字要高出预期的降幅。

整体零售业的销售量的降幅从10月份的22%到11月份的20.8%。

就在上个月,中国政府宣布了将注入巨额资金刺激经济。

中国工业和信息化部部长李毅中针对汽车销售量下降问题指出,"这是一个非常严重的问题。"

他还敦促政府为中国的工业提供贷款资助。他说,"工业增长幅度下降很快,我们目前还没有看到转折点。我们目前面临很大的压力。"

他还说,政府向工业保障贷款是恢复市场信心的关键因素。"

技改退税

李毅中还表示,中国钢铁全行业出现亏损,国家将会通过技改退税等措施应对危机。

另外,李毅中还表示,中小企业受到了国际金融危机影响。中国将会通过提高贷款限额增加出口退税等帮助中小企业走出困境。

在谈到如何拉动中国经济的时候,李毅中表示,"投资、消费和出口非常重要。而企业技术改造能够有效拉动经济,而中央政府将会投入150亿元用于技改。

虽然目前中国的经济数据差强人意,但是中国政府官员表示他们有信心让该在2008年国的经济率增长能够达到8%的目标。

中国政府认为,只有经济达到这个增长率的时候,该国才能够为越来越多的劳动力大军提供工作机会。

与美国不同的是中国并不把消费指数作为经济动态的一个重要部分。

中国经济增长率已经有连续六年没有低于10%,但是在很多西方国家都进入经济衰退期之际,中国的经济仍然是出于增长状态。

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7770000/newsid_7779900/7779909.stm

担忧汽车业前景 欧亚股市暴跌

由于美国参议院没有通过对美国汽车业的紧急拯救方案,欧洲和亚洲股市大幅下跌。

日本的日经指数下降5.6%,降至8253.87点,而香港恒生指数也回降6.9%。中国沪市指数也跌破2000点大关,报收1954.21点。

在伦敦和巴黎的股市开盘后,股票价格也大增降低,目前金融时报指数下降了2.7%。

日本的汽车业遭受的冲击尤其大。在东京股市中,本田和日产汽车的股价都跌了至少10%。

另外美元对日元汇率跌到13年来的新低,因此日本的出口业也受到很大的影响。

亚洲股市在上周的上涨都在今天的跌势中损耗。而同样这也引起很多报道说,日本政府会扩大在10月份宣布的经济刺激计划。

另外这也会促使该国政府介入来停止日元对美元汇率的强势。

中国股市也因美国汽车业危机以及投资者对政府刺激经济力度不大感到灰心而下降。

最近一段时间,由于中国宣布经济刺激计划,股市有上涨趋势,但是在周五的交易中,沪市再次跌穿2000点。

另外美元对人民币的汇率也从6.8462上升到6.8509。

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7770000/newsid_7779100/7779190.stm

美参议院汽车业拯救方案谈不拢

美国民主党资深议员透露,美国参议院争取共和党议员支持向三大汽车制造商提供140亿美元紧急贷款的汽车业救助计划的磋商已“谈崩”。

参议院多党派领袖雷德说,全国汽车工人工会代表拒绝接受共和党议员要求工人立即减薪的要求。

雷德参议员说,参议院将把民主党提出的一份相关方案付诸表决,但预计不会通过。

美国众议院在星期三通过了布什政府提出的汽车业救助议案。

由于美国民主党在参议院只比共和党多一个议席,因此民主党需要争取更多的共和党参议员支持这个汽车救助计划,该议案才能获得通过,民主党党内一些议员预计也将对该议案投反对票。

美国白宫称目前提出的汽车业救助方案是有效和负责任的计划。

白宫表示,很多民主党和共和党议员都同意,汽车厂接连倒闭对对汽车制造业将造成致命打击,并将对就业、家庭和美国经济带来灾难性的冲击。

美国通用汽车和克莱斯勒汽车公司说,如果不能获得紧急贷款,公司将面临破产;福特汽车并未要求紧急贷款,但希望在其资产状况恶化时能获得长期贷款。

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7770000/newsid_7778800/7778840.stm

2008年12月11日星期四

中国原油需求萎缩 进口量大幅下降

Demand For Foreign Oil Driven To Low In China

中国11月原油进口量降至今年以来的最低水平,这进一步显示出中国经济的持续走软正导致石油需求急剧萎缩。

China's monthly crude oil imports in November hit their lowest level this year, providing more evidence that a weakening domestic economy is translating into sharply reduced oil demand.

许多分析师预计今明两年全球原油消耗量将出现下滑,一个主要原因就是中国石油消耗量持续大幅下降。全球石油需求正在急剧萎缩,以致于沙特阿拉伯和伊朗等石油输出国组织(OPEC, 简称:欧佩克)的主要产油国可能都来不及及时迅速减产,导致市场出现供过于求的局面;一些分析师目前预计,明年全年油价可能都会因此低于每桶50美元。

The steep continued drop in Chinese oil use is one of the main reasons analysts are now predicting that world-wide crude consumption will decline both this year and next. The world's need for oil is ebbing so quickly that big producers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran may not be able to trim production fast enough, leading to an oversupply that some analysts now say could keep prices below $50 a barrel for all of next year.

纽约商交所周三午盘,轻质低硫原油期货上涨2.73美元,报每桶44.80美元,涨幅6.49%。当前油价比7月峰值下跌了100多美元。11月,纽约商交所原油价格从每桶65美元左右的价格一路下滑,最终跌破了每桶50美元。

Light, sweet crude was at $44.80 a barrel midday Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $2.73, or 6.49%. That's more than $100 a barrel below the July peak. In November, Nymex crude fell from around $65 a barrel to finish below $50 a barrel.

中国海关周三公布的初步数据显示,11月份中国进口原油1,336万吨,相当于每天进口原油326万桶。尽管上月原油价格大幅下滑,但中国原油进口量较10月份减少了17.3%,较上年同期的1,361万吨下滑了1.8%。中国上个月总计出口原油21万吨。

Preliminary customs data on Wednesday showed China imported 13.36 million metric tons of crude in November, equivalent to 3.26 million barrels per day. That's down 17.3% from the October volumes, despite a fall in crude oil prices over the month, and 1.8% lower than the 13.61 million tons of crude shipped in at the same stage of 2007. China's crude oil exports totaled 210,000 tons in November.

追踪中国石油趋势的分析师Paul Ting在近期一份报告中表示,美国石油消耗量正以上世纪八十年代以来未曾见过的速度急剧下降,而中国的石油需求萎缩步伐甚至比美国更为迅猛。

Paul Ting, an oil analyst who tracks oil trends in China, said in a recent report that demand in China is now declining more swiftly than in the U.S., where oil use is falling at a pace not seen since the 1980s.

在过去七年油价历史性涨势中,中国、印度和中东地区的旺盛需求一直是主要推动力。同样,今年夏天以来这些地区的需求走软也是当前油价持续走低的重要原因。

Booming demand in China, India and the Middle East have been the prime drivers in the historic run-up in oil prices over the last seven years. Slackening demand in those regions since this summer is a key force driving oil prices down.

中国需求走软的迹象是多方面的。尽管7月份以来国际油价急剧下跌,而中国政府制定的国内成品油却没有进行相应调整,给中国炼油商带来了不正常的诱人利润,但他们仍然减少了产量。

The signs of China's slackening demand are manifold. China's refiners are scaling back operations despite the lure of abnormal margins created by a sharp fall in crude prices since July and no corresponding adjustment in state-set caps on domestic oil product prices.

分析师们表示,中国可能正在利用油价下滑的时机补充更多的战略石油储备,这可能会提振原油进口,但这部分进口量不太可能抵消国内需求的下滑。据新华社报导,受国内石油需求下滑推动,截至10月底,中国两大炼油商中国石油天然气集团公司和中国石油化工集团公司共有汽油储备3,310万桶和柴油储备4,680万桶。

Analysts say China could be taking advantage of the slide in oil prices to fill more of its strategic petroleum reserve, which would prop up crude imports, but that volumes being used for this were unlikely to offset the decline in domestic demand. By the end of October, China National Petroleum Corp. and China Petrochemical Corp., the country's top two refiners, had built up stocks of 33.1 million barrels of gasoline and 46.8 million barrels of diesel due to slackening domestic oil demand, according to Xinhua news agency.

中国经济增长依赖于出口;据初步数据显示,中国11月出口额较上年同期下滑了2.2%,为2001年以来首次下降。出口下滑也带动了石油需求减少,那些主要生产出口到美国和欧洲的制造业产品的地区表现得尤为明显。

China's economy is dependent on exports, which fell 2.2% in November from the same month last year, according to preliminary data, the first fall since 2001. The drop has cut demand for oil, particularly in regions dependent on manufacturing goods for export to the U.S. and Europe.

据花旗集团(Citigroup)的数据,中国10月份工业增加值较上年同期增长8.2%,为2001年底以来最慢增幅。分析师们预计,中国11月工业增加值可能会较上年同期增长大约6%-7%,增速进一步放缓。

October's 8.2% expansion in industrial output from a year earlier was the slowest since late 2001, according to Citigroup. Analysts said November's industrial output growth likely slowed to around 6% to 7% from a year earlier.

中国已经对此采取了举措,计划在2010年前投资人民币4万亿元(5,900亿美元)并放松货币政策以期刺激经济增长。分析师们表示,这可能会推动石油需求的增长,但明年下半年之前恐怕难见成效。

China has sought to boost economic growth via a 4 trillion yuan ($590 billion) stimulus package through 2010 and by loosening monetary policy. Analysts say that this could result in stronger oil-demand growth, but that it won't be felt until around the second half of next year.

据上海的易贸资讯(CBIChina)提供的数据,中国石油化工股份有限公司旗下主要炼油厂12月可能会较上月减产6%,炼油量降至1,270万吨,合每天炼油300万桶。

In December, major refineries owned by China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec, were set to cut runs by 6% from November to 12.7 million tons, or 3 million barrels a day, according to information provided by Shanghai-based CBIChina.

中国石油天然气集团公司旗下上市子公司中国石油天然气股份有限公司一位管理人士表示,公司也计划减产,但幅度不像中国石化那么大。

PetroChina Co., the listed unit of CNPC, also planned to cut runs, but not as sharply as Sinopec, said an executive with the company.

中国还在削减从海外购买的成品油数量,中国是仅次于美国的全球第二大原油消费国。成品油进口量已经连续两个月触及两年多以来的最低水平。

China, the world's second-biggest crude oil consumer after the U.S., has also been scaling back purchases of refined oil products from overseas. For the second consecutive month, China's oil-product imports hit their lowest level in more than two years.

周三公布的数据显示,中国11月份总计进口193万吨成品油。

Wednesday's data showed China's combined oil-product imports amounted to 1.93 million tons in November.

不过,中国仍然是成品油净进口国,因为11月中国只出口了127万吨成品油。

Nevertheless, the country remained a net importer of oil products as China exported only 1.27 million tons of oil products in November.

David Winning

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081211/bch112112.asp

欧洲汽车业日薄西山

鉴于无望获得美国式的行业救助,欧洲的汽车制造商们只有寻求自保。菲亚特公司(Fiat)首席执行长赛吉奥?马奇奥尼(Sergio Marchionne)周一的话说得没错,这家意大利汽车业巨头无法继续保持独立,公司需要一位合作伙伴。但想法和现实毕竟还是两码事。

菲亚特的问题在于它是欧洲六大汽车制造商中规模最小的一家,今年产量仅略超过200万辆。而马奇奥尼表示,汽车生产商要生存下去,每年的产量至少要达到400万辆。而且尽管菲亚特今年能够实现20亿欧元的利润,但下一年的前景却十分黯淡。仅11月份一个月,欧洲的汽车销量就下滑了25%。而摩根大通(JP Morgan)更预计欧洲市场2009年的汽车销量将缩水15%。

从一般的经验来看,需求每下降1%就会造成行业经营利润下降5%。如果预期汽车销量下滑的局面持续到2009年以后,整个行业将陷入亏损境地。根据高盛(Goldman Sachs)的计算,要想让欧洲汽车行业的利润回到2007年的水平,就必须裁员26%,相当于裁员超过350,000人,并将带来230亿欧元的成本。要消除700万辆的过剩产能,该行业颇有一段路要走。

政府方面恐怕也是爱莫能助。欧盟(E.U)成员国援助规定意味着几乎没有对汽车业进行直接救助的空间。取而代之的是,欧洲各国政府采取了一些有限的措施来帮助提振消费需求。举例来说,法国向雷诺公司(Renault)和标致(Peugeot)的金融子公司放贷10亿欧元;德国下调了汽车税,耗资14亿欧元。但政府措施在促进需求方面往往收效甚微,反而更有可能耽误重组。

但合并也只是理想中的解决方案,在实际情况下汽车行业的并购交易是出了名的棘手,可能遇到的问题纷繁复杂:难以对付的行业工会、生产平台和技术无法统一,更不用说文化方面的分歧了。的确,眼下的经济放缓给统一思想带来了一个契机。菲亚特希望并入其他公司的想法至少显示出,该公司已经意识到了经济领域的现实问题,这一点是颇为难能可贵的。但面临的障碍就在于,潜在买家可能会等到菲亚特的状况进一步恶化时再出手。

Sean Walters

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081211/hrd074638.asp

白宫“同意”百亿汽车业救助方案

美国政府发言人说,白宫和国会已就援助美国汽车业达成原则协议,同意向三大汽车制造商提供150亿美元的紧急贷款援助。

白宫官员说,目前政府和国会就原则性协议已达成一致,但还有一些细节需要进一步敲定并最后定稿。

美国通用汽车和克莱斯勒汽车公司说,如果不能获得紧急贷款,公司将面临破产;福特汽车并未要求紧急贷款,但希望在其资产状况恶化时能获得长期贷款。

美国总统布什预计将对拯救三大汽车厂的紧急贷款援助计划提出严格的条件。

为了确保紧急贷款援助有正确的企业重组计划支撑,布什预计将对三大汽车厂提出严格的监管。

美国国会在10月通过的7000亿美元救助计划遭到诟病,因此国会并不情愿再通过一项新的政府援助计划。

美国国会众议院最快将于周三对此议案进行表决,国会民主党正在全力争取共和党人的支持票。

尽管分歧不断,但分析人士认为,有关议案将在周末获得通过。

根据民主党的议案,美国政府将获得通用、福特和克莱斯特三大汽车公司的无表决权股份。

协议中也包含保护纳税人资金的特殊条款,美国政府将设立"汽车沙皇"一职监管三家汽车公司财政。

一旦汽车巨头在明年3月31日之前无法兑现此前提出的企业重组计划,"汽车沙皇"将迫使汽车业依照破产法规第11条进入破产程序。

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7770000/newsid_7774600/7774673.stm

底特律救助计划遭遇民众冷淡支持

Detroit Aid Gets Tepid Support in Poll

美国人对动用联邦资金救助底特律汽车厂商的计划没有踊跃支持;这种温吞吞的态度也反映在国会中,紧急贷款议案在国会虽有赞同者但也鲜有力挺者。

The idea of providing federal aid to Detroit's auto makers has tepid support from Americans, mirroring the situation in Congress, where the emergency loans have backers but few champions.

根据《华尔街日报》/全国广播公司新闻网新近进行的一项调查,有46%的受访者赞同向底特律提供救助,42%的人反对。调查误差率为上下3个百分点。

According to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, 46% approve of giving aid to Detroit, compared with 42% who disapprove. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

不过,赞同救助汽车厂商的人要远远多于7,000亿美元金融救助计划的支持者,后者的支持率较两个月前大幅下降。此次调查中,有半数的受访者反对政府救助金融行业。

Support for U.S. car makers is far greater than that for the government's $700 billion plan to aid the financial industry, which has slumped from just two months ago. Half of respondents in the latest poll disapproved of the financial-industry rescue.

底特律救助计划招致的众怒大体上少于金融服务业救助计划。底特律救助计划目前商议的金额是340亿美元,比金融救助计划的金额要少得多。而且,议员们和汽车厂商也一直宣称救助汽车业是为了保住蓝领工人而不是华尔街巨头的工作岗位。

The Detroit rescue plan has drawn less ire in general than its financial-services predecessor. The dollar amount in question, $34 billion, is far smaller. And the car-industry bailout has been cast by lawmakers and the companies themselves as a move to save blue-collar jobs rather than Wall Street titans.

此次调查是12月5日至8日进行的,当时通用汽车(General Motors)、福特汽车(Ford Motor)和克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)的老板们正在国会接受第二轮拷问。

The poll was conducted Dec. 5-8, as the chief executives of General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC endured a second round of grilling on Capitol Hill.

最初对金融业救助计划持反对态度的人比例比现在反对汽车救助的人比例还低,在10月初的调查中,只有38%的受访者持反对态度,但他们的声势却大得多。左翼和右翼组织均炮轰救助议案,向国会议员发送大量邮件,还在主要城市组织抗议活动。

The initial opposition to the financial-sector bailout was actually smaller -- 38% disapproved in an early October poll -- but it was much more vocal. Groups on the left and the right blasted the proposal, deluging members of Congress with letters and orchestrating protests in major cities.

但在救助汽车业的问题上,议员们接到来自他们选区选民的反应较少,无论是赞同还是反对的都是如此。印第安纳州民主党众议员卡森(Andre Carson)的办公室表示,卡森已经收到了与此有关的约600封信件和电邮以及30个电话。相比之下,在国会审议问题资产救助计划(TARP)的时候,他收到了2,000封信件和电邮。

But representatives are seeing less of a constituent response either for or against the auto-industry bailout. Rep. Andre Carson (D., Ind.) has received about 600 letters and emails, and 30 phone calls, his office said. When Congress was considering passing the Troubled Assets Relief Program, or TARP, as the financial bailout is called, he received 2,000 e-mails and letters.

甚至来自可能受益于汽车救助计划的底特律地区的众议员麦考特(Thaddeus McCotter)的办公室也表示,他每天平均只接到200个电话,而TARP计划争论时期他每天要接到1,000多个电话。

Even Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, whose Detroit-area district would benefit from the auto bailout, has received an average of 200 calls per day, compared with more than 1,000 calls per day during the TARP debate, his office said.

负责此次调查的哈特研究所(Hart Research)民调专家坎贝尔(Jay Campbell)表示,本质上对公众而言,金融行业救助计划就像是缺乏监管的暗箱操作。虽然公众可能对汽车业感到不满,但他们绝对不希望汽车业就此崩溃。

'Essentially, to the public, the bailout of the financial industry comes off as something that happened in the dead of night with no oversight,' said Jay Campbell, a pollster at Hart Research who conducted the poll. 'While people may be angry at the auto industry, they've never had any desire for them to fail.'

此前积极抗议金融业救助计划的一些组织现在也置身事外。左翼活动组织“美国行动”(USAction)此前在华尔街组织了一次游行,抗议政府救助金融业。该组织发言人艾略特(David Elliot)表示,他们目前没有鲜明反对救助底特律,部分原因是经济形势变得越来越黯淡,也是因为他们相信奥巴马政府和民主党国会能够解决经济问题。

Some of the groups active in protesting the financial-services bailout are sitting this fight out. USAction, a left-wing activist group, sponsored a march on Wall Street to protest a financial-industry rescue. The group isn't actively opposing the Detroit bailout, partly because the news about the economy has become gloomier, and partly because it trusts an Obama administration and a Democratic Congress with the economy, spokesman David Elliot said.

不过对底特律的反感也快浮出水面了。亚利桑那州住房建筑商Golden Star Properties的创始人约瑟夫?史密斯(Joseph Smith)表示,自己公司的业务已经显著下滑;之所以能够坚持下来,是因为公司负债较低,相对而言很少涉足投机地产,业务支出较为保守。他说,我为那些可能失业的人感到难过。但我所在的行业正在经历洗牌,汽车业也需要这么做。

But antipathy toward Detroit isn't far from the surface. Joseph Smith, founder of Golden Star Properties, a custom home builder in Tucson, Ariz., has seen a dramatic slowdown in business. He has stayed afloat, he said, thanks to a low debt load, comparatively few speculative properties and old-fashioned penny-pinching. 'I feel sorry for the people who would lose their jobs,' Mr. Smith said. 'But my industry is going through a shakeout, and the auto industry needs to do it, too.'

Easha Anand

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081210/bus141954.asp

五问汽车业救助计划

Five Questions on the Auto Bailout

福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)和通用汽车(General Motors)的投资者这下满意了。周一,美国政府似乎将为美国汽车三巨头提供150亿美元的短期融资,足以帮助它们维持到明年3月份。到时它们可能就会想出一些办法,或是能够偿还这150亿美元了。

Investors in Ford Motor Co. and General Motors, are, for today, satiated. The federal government seems set to provide $15 billion in short-term funds for the three major U.S. auto makers, enough of a salve to carry them through March, when they will presumably have figured something out, or give back the $15 billion (yeah, right).

通用汽车股价周一上涨18%至4.80美元;福特上涨65美分至3.37美元,不过后者的市值依然较高,由于2006年底决定在情况恶化前抵押所有资产,以改善财务状况,福特的现状在两家公司中也更好些。

Shares of General Motors rose 18% on the day to $4.80 a share, while Ford gained 65 cents to $3.37 a share, though the latter still has the larger market capitalization and is generally seen as the stronger of the two because of its decision to shore up financing in late 2006 by pledging all of its assets before the roof caved in.

这条消息令MarketBeat针对整个计划提出了几个问题,当然这个计划还需得到国会的批准。以下是MarketBeat认为的最为迫切的几个问题:

The news elicits a few questions about this whole thing that MarketBeat sought to put out there in the wake of this plan, which of course has still not been agreed upon by Congress. Here's a few of the pressing issues on MarketBeat's mind:

1.这其中的要点到底是什么?很简单。除非今后几个月能出现奇迹,有买家收购通用汽车或克莱斯勒(Chrysler)(两家公司相互购买不在此列),否则这两家公司就可能走向破产。应该说,短期的融资使它们能够按轻重缓急解决一些问题。它可以让这些公司与其债权人、工会和国会合作,拿出一套减少负债、削减部分残余的医疗成本,以及获得一些让步的方案,以达成某种事先协商好的预处理破产方案,而不是完全交由破产程序解决。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的分析师写道,我们预计所有获得融资的汽车厂家都将获得60-90天的时间谈判……得出一个具有长期财务可行性的计划。

1. What's the point of all this, exactly? Simple. Unless some sort of miracle buyer emerges in the next few months for GM or Chrysler (and buying each other does not count), those two companies are likely headed for bankruptcy. Short-term funding allows them to get their ducks in order, so to speak. It allows the companies to work with their creditors, the unions and Congress to figure out a way to reduce their debt, lop off some of the residual health-care costs and get some concessions in order to enter some kind of pre-packaged bankruptcy that's agreed-upon beforehand, instead of leaving the whole thing to the mercy of Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings. 'We expect any automaker that receives funding to be given 60-90 days to negotiate … a plan for long term financial viability,' write analysts at Deutsche Bank.

2. 那么这是否意味着所有人3月份之前都是在做无用功呢?从某种程度上说是这样。新一届政府将在1月20日上任,而制定长期计划的政治意愿目前看来似乎还不存在。这就是说,如果没有这样的计划,通用和克莱斯勒可能不会生存到明年3月份。McGinn Investment Management总裁伯尼?麦克金(Bernie McGinn)说,通用汽车这帮家伙曾谈论今年破产的事。他持有福特汽车的股票。

2. So does that mean everyone is sort of just punting this down the road until March? Sort of. A new presidential administration comes into office on Jan. 20, and the political will to put together a long-standing plan does not seem to exist now. That said, without this, GM and Chrysler might not survive until March. 'These guys at GM were talking about going bankrupt this year,' says Bernie McGinn, president of McGinn Investment Management, who owns shares of Ford.

3. 那么该公司债券的持有者将得到什么?很难说。KDP Investment Advisors固定收益产品分析师基普?彭尼曼(Kip Penniman)上周列出了三种选择,对这些高级无担保债券的估值为票面价值的18%至43%。周一,2033年到期的这些债券的交易价约为面值的 19%至20%,表明投资者认为通用汽车有可能破产。彭尼曼也认为,在由全美汽车工人联合会(United Auto Workers)和放贷机构承受痛苦的情况下,债券持有者预计将收回面值的43%左右,同时股份进一步增加。UAW也在寻求获得股份。

3. So what will the holders of the company's debt get? It's hard to say. Kip Penniman, fixed-income analyst at KDP Investment Advisors, last week laid out three options that would value the senior unsecured debt holders at anywhere from 18 cents to 43 cents on the dollar. Monday, those bonds, due in 2033, were trading 19 to 20 cents on the dollar, suggesting investors are still valuing this as a likely bankruptcy candidate. Mr. Penniman also believes that in a situation where the United Auto Workers union and the lenders share the pain, the bondholders would get about 43 cents on the dollar along with 'further upside in the form of equity.' The UAW is also seeking an equity stake as well.

4. 那么,这些股份价值几何呢?最终有可能一文不值。巨量的债券以及政府扮演的汽车厂家新放贷者的额外角色,这都令股东处于危险的境地。买进这些汽车厂家的股票───尤其是通用汽车,因为福特汽车可能不会接受联邦资金──要么是基于短期交易机会,要么就是耐心持有,寄希望于下一轮周期的到来。Lear Corp.、Visteon, Corp.和American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings等汽车零部件类股周一都强劲上扬,表明投资者认为该行业将会复苏。福特汽车目前的市值约为65亿美元,是通用汽车的两倍以上,麦克金说,他看不到福特汽车无法生存的理由。他说,在三巨头中,福特汽车显然是情况最好的,有能力在这场风暴中生存最长的时间。

4. Ok, so what's the equity stake worth? It could be nothing, ultimately. The sheer volume of debt, and the government's additional role as a new lender to the auto makers, puts the stockholders in a precarious position. A bet on these shares ─ GM in particular, as Ford may not take the federal money ─ is either a short-term trade or one built for those with the patience (and perhaps lifespan) of Treebeard. Shares of the auto-parts makers, such as Lear Corp., Visteon, Corp. and American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, were solidly higher Monday, suggesting that investors are betting that the industry will survive. Ford's current market cap is about $6.5 billion, more than double that of GM, and Mr. McGinn says he does not see how Ford doesn't survive. 'They, clearly, of the three, are the strongest and have the ability to weather the storm the longest,' he says.

5.通用汽车首席执行长瓦格纳(Rick Wagoner)会下台吗?非常可能。与其他两位上任时间较短的首席执行长不同,瓦格纳自2000年以来一直担任通用汽车的首席执行长。该公司股价自2000年6月他上任以来已经下跌了93%。市场份额持续下降,通用一直难以跟上许多消费者喜好的变化,比如最近对节油型轿车的追捧。通用汽车多年来面临困难局面,却一直未能有上佳表现。咨询机构Liberum Research主管理查德?杰克维茨(Richard Jacowitz)说,也许你会觉得他只是一个牺牲品,但我的确认为他们需要一个新的开端。

5. Will GM CEO Rick Wagoner walk the plank? Most likely. Unlike the other two CEOs, who have been at the job for a shorter period of time, Mr. Wagoner has been CEO since 2000. The company's stock has lost 93% of its value since the beginning of June 2000, the month he took that position. Market share has declined and the company is scrambling to catch up to the preferences of many consumers, now looking for more fuel-efficient vehicles. While there are arguments for continuity at a difficult time, GM has faced difficult times for several years and has not distinguished itself. 'Maybe you can perceive of this as a sacrificial lamb, but I do believe they need a new beginning,' says Richard Jacowitz, director of consultancy Liberum Research.

David Gaffen

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081209/fea191130.asp

2008年12月9日星期二

最佳汽车的有力竞争者

A Candidate for Best Car on Road

如果在当前这场全球性经济衰退中人们还能看到一线希望的话,它一定与加油站那些“普通无铅汽油每加仑1.98美元”的广告有关。我已经有近两年时间没看到如此低廉的油价了。但另一方面,油价下跌对我上周驾驶的2009款本田飞度(Honda Fit)却影响不大,因为这款车平均一加仑汽油可以行驶32英里。

If there's a silver lining to this global economic meltdown, it must be driving by gas stations advertising regular unleaded for $1.98 a gallon. I haven't seen prices this low in almost two years. On the other hand, the effect was less dramatic in the car I was driving last week: the 2009 Honda Fit, with which I averaged 32 miles a gallon.

尽管传统的经验表明低油价不利于小型经济型汽车的市场销售,但我却不这么认为。飞度毫无疑问是我最欣赏的汽车,无论和任何品牌,任何价位的汽车相比它都是最好的。

While conventional wisdom says that cheap gas should damp enthusiasm for a compact fuel-sipper, I'm not going to be deterred. The Fit is unquestionably my favorite car, a vehicle that's the best all-around transportation available from any auto maker at any price.

我们先不用考虑飞度平均每加仑汽油行驶32英里的油耗,也不用理会在公路巡航时每加仑汽油行驶超过40英里的超级节油性,毕竟那些汽油在当下并不值多少钱。飞度还可以提供许多驾驶乐趣,购买飞度是理性的选择,而不是被迫的凑合。

So let's put aside those 32 mpgs during my week in the Fit, forget about the 40-plus mpgs I saw in steady highway driving and make a case for this exceptional econobox above and beyond fuel economy. Because for not a lot of money, the Fit is a whole lot of fun to drive, a prudent choice rather than a penalty box.

我们先从价格开始,15,220美元就可以把一辆基本款的飞度开回你的车库,并且配备了所有我们认为理所当然的设备:随处可见的气囊、电动车窗、空调、播放CD的音响等等。当然如果你花了超过2万美元,就可以得到车载导航系统和自动变速箱(可选配件)。当然在这个价位你也可以买到一些其他的车型──尽管不是特别多。

Let's start with the price: $15,220 puts a base model five-door Fit in your garage, a car fairly well-equipped with the stuff we take for granted: airbags everywhere, power windows, air conditioning, a CD player, etc. While you can run the Fit's price over $20,000 if you start loading it up with the navigation system and the optional automatic transmission with paddle shifters, it's still a lot of car for the money -- even as it's not a lot of car.

事实上飞度是一款很小巧的汽车,大约比一辆宝马5系列短30英尺,重量轻大约1,500磅。而宝马5则是我认为在公路上最好的汽车之一。

Indeed, the Fit is quite small, almost 30 inches shorter and nearly 1,500 pounds lighter than, say, a BMW 5-Series, that perennial best-car-on-the-road contender.

考虑一下上面的描述,再想想随着空间的缩小,设计一辆如此出色的汽车又是多么的困难。怎么可能将如此多的功能全部塞入到一辆像飞度那样体积的车内呢?并且这辆车可以顺利通过碰撞测试,不但乘坐舒适,而且充满驾驶乐趣。这样的车怎么可能卖到2万美元以下呢?一辆豪华轿车的价格可能是飞度的3倍,但是由于有了更大的空间,从工程技术角度来说它造起来反而更容易些。

Ponder this for a moment. Then consider how, as the package shrinks, the difficulty in building a truly good car increases. How do you even find the space to engineer everything you need into a car the size of the Fit? So it can pass crash tests, so it's comfortable, so it's drivable, and so you can still build and sell it for less than $20,000? A nice luxury sedan that costs three times as much is inherently less impressive because it poses fewer challenges to engineers.

高性能的小型汽车之所以如此稀少,原因之一就是汽车制造商们长时间以来一直认为体积小等于便宜,从而使人们减少了对此类车型的期待。甚至本田这个以制造高质量小型车闻名的企业近来也错误地遵从了“越大越好”的理念,把自己产品线上的每一款车型都设计得越来越大。

One of the reasons good small cars are so rare is that auto makers have long assumed that small equals cheap; that makes for diminished expectations. Even Honda, known for building good small cars, has recently been guilty of pandering to the bigger-is-better paradigm, supersizing its lineup top to bottom.

人们现在欣喜地发现,新款飞度的目标不仅是成为一辆高性能小型车,而且要揭开轿车行业的新篇章。飞度将公路行驶所需的元素集成到一起,并且在此价位上比其他车型更实惠。飞度的内饰材料──塑料和装饰织物──显然成本不高,但是质地、颜色以及整体设计却给人以并不低档的感觉。(想想宜家的家居)

So it's refreshing to find the new Fit aiming to be not just a good small car, but an exceptional car, period. It's screwed together as well as anything on the road, and feels more substantial than other cars in its price range. The interior materials -- the plastics and fabrics -- are obviously inexpensive, but don't seem like it because of their textures and colors, as well as the overall design. (Think Ikea.)

飞度的仪表板非常简洁,大尺寸的操控部件体现出高超的人性化与工效学设计。车的前排座椅也体现出同样的特点,取消了非常复杂的多方位调整功能,加入了坚固的支撑和舒适的坐垫,这种设计甚至比一些价格相当于飞度两倍的车还要出色。飞度的后排座椅可以将靠背折叠放平,掀背式的后门加上很低的门槛使得飞度有一个非常人性并且易于存放的行李空间。将后座的靠背立起来后车内可以容纳4名成年人,尽管车身很小但并不会使人感到拥挤,好像本田神奇地找到了最佳的车内空间比例布局。造成这种印象要归功于足够大的、可以完全敞开的车门,当然较高的车顶也是一个优势。

The Fit's dashboard is simple, and its oversize controls are ergonomically wonderful. The same goes for the front seats, which trade complex adjustability for good bolstering and firm, yet comfortable cushions that far outclass those in many cars costing twice as much. With rear seats that fold down flat to the floor and a hatchback with a low sill height, the Fit can have an enormous and easily accessible cargo hold. Flip the seats back up, load up four adults, and despite its diminutive size, the car still doesn't feel small, as if Honda somehow divined the perfect threshold of proportions. Part of this is having large doors that open wide for easy ingress, but the Fit's high roof helps too.

飞度由前轮驱动,整辆车的最吸引人之处在于它提供的驾驶乐趣。这要归功于那颗动力十足的四缸1.5升引擎。这样的引擎听起来好象没什么了不起,但它117马力的动力足以让车在高速公路上驰骋。飞度的悬挂系统比大多数汽车要硬一些,这样可以让驾驶员更好地感觉路面变化。标准的5档手动变速箱更增加了飞度的运动感,而不仅仅是一个省钱的设计。

But the crowning achievement is that the front-wheel-drive Fit is as fun to drive as it is functional, thanks to a sprightly 1.5-liter four-cylinder engine. It may not sound like a lot, but 117 horsepower is plenty, with the Fit surrendering only the ability to merge into freeway traffic by force of will, rather than finesse. The suspension is firmer than most, but it makes for a real connectedness with the road. The standard five-speed manual transmission adds sportiness to the car rather than just cost savings.

飞度真正提供了一辆汽车应该配备的一切,放弃了所有不必要的多余功能。人们都知道美国人对小型掀背式汽车不感兴趣,但是如果有那么一辆汽车可以促使美国人改变口味,那就是这辆飞度了。在当前严峻的经济形势下,人们需要用更务实的方式处理个人交通问题。飞度就是一款可以改变人们口味的车。

The Fit truly offers everything you need in a car, and nothing you don't. Americans are famously skeptical toward small hatchbacks, but if ever there was a car that could lead us to embrace the genre, this is it. These sobering times demand a more pragmatic approach to personal transportation. Call the Fit the automotive change we need.

JEFF SABATINI

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081209/ffe111347.asp

通用汽车救助有望 老板位子朝不保夕

GM Chief's Job in Danger as Bailout Gains Support

美国国会似乎正采取措施,可能动用联邦资金向陷入困境的通用汽车(General Motors)和克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)至少提供先期注资;不过两家汽车制造商也面临着政府压力,需要采取不得已的举措改变运营方式──包括通用汽车董事长兼首席执行长瓦格纳(Rick Wagoner)可能会随之下台。

Now that Congress appears to be moving forward with at least an initial injection of federal money for General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC, the two troubled auto makers are under pressure to push ahead with tough measures to change how they do business -- including the possible replacement of GM Chairman and Chief Executive Rick Wagoner.

康涅狄格州民主党参议员多德(Chris Dodd)是救助底特律汽车厂家的重要支持者。他周日暗示,作为任何广泛救助计划的一部分,瓦格纳应该离开。多德在CBS电视台的《Face The Nation》谈话节目上表示,我认为他们应该考虑新的领导层。如果你打算进行重组,就必须引进新的团队负责实施。我认为(瓦格纳)必须离职。

Sen. Chris Dodd (D., Conn.), a key supporter of aid for Detroit, suggested Sunday that Mr. Wagoner should go as part of any broader bailout package. 'I think you've got to consider new leadership,' the senator said on CBS's 'Face The Nation' talk show. 'If you're going to restructure, you've got to bring in a new team to do this,' he said. 'I think [Mr. Wagoner] has to move on.'

知情人士称,尽管通用汽车董事会这些天来一直表示强烈支持瓦格纳,但多德的这番言论反映了过去几周一些有影响力的汽车业管理人士持续向国会表达的信息。

Although GM's board has voiced strong support for Mr. Wagoner in the last few days, Mr. Dodd's comments echoed the sentiment that a handful of influential auto executives have been expressing to Congress in the last few weeks, people familiar with the matter said.

据知情人士透露,瓦格纳心目中的一些底特律的盟友可能会在有关管理层的争论中保持沉默,其中包括美国汽车工人联合会(UAW)会长荣?葛蒂尔芬格(Ron Gettelfinger)。虽然葛蒂尔芬格多年来一直公开赞扬瓦格纳,但他私下一直批评瓦格纳拿了太多薪水,而蓝领工人却要被迫接受降薪,还批评瓦格纳没有在去年的劳资谈判中充分发挥积极作用。

Some of Mr. Wagoner's perceived allies in Detroit, including United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger, are expected to keep silent on debates over management, according to people familiar with the situation. While Mr. Gettelfinger has been publicly complimentary of GM's chief in recent years, the union leader privately has criticized Mr. Wagoner for taking too much compensation while blue-collar workers were forced to accept cuts and for not playing an active enough role in labor-contract talks last year.

瓦格纳和葛蒂尔芬格没有回复记者的置评请求。

Mr. Wagoner and Mr. Gettelfinger didn't return messages seeking comment.

瓦格纳在通用汽车董事会的支持者一直称赞他带领公司削减固定成本、进军新兴市场并与UAW达成了大规模成本和医疗削减协议;这些人中包括了首席外部董事菲舍尔(George Fisher)。

Mr. Wagoner's supporters on GM's board, including lead outside director George Fisher, credit the CEO with slashing fixed costs, pushing into emerging markets and working out major cost and health-care concessions with the UAW.

但瓦格纳也要为通用汽车犯下的一些决策错误负一定责任,正是这些错误导致了通用汽车沦落到现在的处境;这些失策包括大举使用促销手段推动销量,倚重于卡车销售以及没有及时认识到消费者对混合动力车和其他省油小型车的兴趣。

But he also has played a part in some of the missteps that put GM in the position it faces today, including the heavy use of sales incentives to drive sales, a reliance on truck sales and a belated recognition of consumer interest in hybrids and and other fuel-saving small cars.

瓦格纳2000年开始出任通用汽车首席执行长,此后该股股价一路暴跌,其美国市场份额也下降了近三分之一。

Mr. Wagoner has been CEO since 2000, during which time GM's stock price has plunged and its U.S. market share has fallen by nearly a third.

和瓦格纳相比,福特汽车(Ford Motor)首席执行长穆拉利(Alan Mulally)和克莱斯勒的纳尔德里(Robert Nardelli)面临的批评压力相对较小,因为他们都是较晚入主公司主持业务扭转计划的。

Ford Motor Co. CEO Alan Mulally and Chrysler's Robert Nardelli have come under less criticism than Mr. Wagoner because they were brought in more recently to turn around those companies.

John D. Stoll / Matthew Dolan / Greg Hitt

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081208/bus104100.asp

美国汽车业救助谈判被迫放缓

US Auto Talks Slow Over Plan To Create 'Czar'

围绕美国政府救助底特律三大汽车生产商的谈判周末期间放慢了进度,因为国会和白宫在设立一位“汽车沙皇”以负责汽车工业重组的问题上产生了争论。争论的一大焦点是,究竟是由现任总统布什(George W. Bush)还是当选总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)来任命这位沙皇。

Negotiations over a U.S. government rescue of Detroit's Big Three auto makers slowed over the weekend as Congress and the White House debated creating an 'auto czar' who would oversee a restructuring of the industry. One stumbling block was whether President George W. Bush or President-elect Barack Obama would appoint the czar.

与此同时,一位重要参议员表示,三大汽车公司应该更换其高层管理人士,以此来换取美国政府的长期救助。

Meanwhile, a key senator said the car companies should have to replace top executives in exchange for a long-term bailout.

国会的民主党领导人希望最快在周二就救助法案采取行动,以避免美国三大汽车公司中的一家或多家倒闭,这些企业都是美国制造业的重要组成部分。

Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill want action on the legislation as soon as Tuesday, hoping to avoid a collapse of one or more companies that are big parts of the U.S. manufacturing base.

白宫和民主党的高层议员们目前都着眼于一项为美国汽车业提供约150亿美元短期融资的一揽子救助计划,这些融资足以使美国三大汽车公司支撑到明年3月。

The White House and top Democratic lawmakers are zeroing in on a package that would provide about $15 billion in short-term financing, enough to carry the companies into March.

据美联社(Associated Press)报导,奥巴马暗示说,只要救助计划能设定一些条件,以迫使美国汽车生产商作出其长期生存所必须的变革,他就会予以支持。奥巴马周日在美国全国广播公司(NBC)“与媒体会面”节目发表讲话时还表示,他认为对三大汽车公司中的任何一家来说,破产都不是一个可接受的办法。

Mr. Obama suggested he would support such a plan, so long as it was accompanied by conditions to 'keep the auto makers' feet to the fire in making the changes that are necessary' for longer-term survival, according to the Associated Press. Speaking on NBC's 'Meet the Press' Sunday, he also indicated he didn't believe bankruptcy is an acceptable course of action for any of the companies.

白宫正建议设立一位“财务生存顾问”,他将立刻被授权谈判让各家公司重返经济稳定性的计划。根据政府的一项计划草案,这位顾问将被授权批准短期融资方案,所需资金来自政府已有的一个汽车工业贷款项目,该项目旨在帮助美国汽车公司更新生产设施,以达到更高的节油标准。

The White House is proposing to create a 'financial viability adviser' who would be authorized immediately to negotiate plans for returning each auto maker to economic stability. The adviser would be authorized to approve short-term financing, drawn from an existing loan program meant to help the industry retool to meet higher fuel-economy standards, according to a draft of the administration plan.

民主党领导人希望救助美国汽车业的计划能获得国会共和党议员支持,并在下周快速通过国会参众两院的批准。推出短期融资方案的背后想法是,用短期融资维持三大汽车公司的运营,而将对这些公司的长期救助及其重组等方面的棘手政治谈判推迟到民主党掌控国会和白宫后进行。推迟在这些更根本的问题上作出决策,还将确保奥巴马能够就美国汽车工业的未来直接发表意见。

Democratic leaders have hopes the deal will be endorsed by congressional Republicans and will speed through the House and Senate next week. The idea behind short-term financing would be to keep the three companies in operation while deferring the thorny political negotiations about longer-term aid and restructuring until Democrats control both Congress and the White House. A delay on the more fundamental issues also would ensure that Mr. Obama would have a direct voice in the industry's future.

由于销售严重下滑,通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)、福特汽车公司(Ford Motor Co.)和克莱斯勒公司(Chrysler LLC)一直在寻求获得340亿美元的政府贷款以渡过当前的经济衰退期。通用和克莱斯勒表示,要避免破产命运它们年底前还需获得更多资金。

With sales slumping badly, General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co., and Chrysler LLC had been seeking $34 billion in government loans to weather the recession. GM and Chrysler said they need more cash by year end to avoid collapse.

依照向三大汽车公司提供150亿美元短期贷款的建议,布什总统在其白宫生涯的最后这段时日里,在救助汽车业的问题上将获得重大发言权,并有能力让美国汽车公司作出一系列让步。国会的高层民主党议员也想设立一位汽车“沙皇”。国会和白宫都表示,这位官员实际上将扮演受托人角色,担负起重组美国汽车工业的职责。

The $15 billion short-term proposal would give President Bush a big say over the bailout -- and an ability to wring concessions from the industry -- in his final days in office. Top congressional Democrats also want to create a czar. Both camps indicate the official essentially would act as a trustee, charged with restructuring the industry.

但民主党人希望,动用政府资金救助美国汽车业的计划应确保由奥巴马来任命这位汽车工业“沙皇”。据国会工作人员说,根据民主党提出的建议,这位官员仍将有权力迫使汽车公司作出让步,但其所施加的压力应该来自有关汽车业长期融资需要的争论。

But Democrats want taxpayer dollars to flow under a proposal that would have Mr. Obama appoint the czar. Under the Democratic proposal, the czar still would have leverage to force concessions, but the pressure would come amid debate about the industry's long-term financing needs, congressional aides said.

为了弥合国会民主党人和白宫的意见分歧,民主党参议员舒默(Charles Schumer)建议国会和白宫就这位“沙皇”的提名人选进行协商。

In an attempt to bridge the divide, Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) proposed that Congress and the White House consult on the naming of the official.

布什总统的发言人弗莱托(Tony Fratto)表示,白宫和国会领导人周末期间预计将继续展开谈判。

Bush spokesman Tony Fratto said the White House and congressional leaders expected to talk through the weekend.

据美联社报导,参议员多德(Chris Dodd)周日表示,三大汽车公司如果明年想从国会获得更大力度的救助,则必须进行重组。多德来自康涅狄格州,现任参议院银行委员会主席。他在哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)“面对美国”节目上说,克莱斯勒或许应该与美国另一家汽车公司合并,而通用汽车则应更换其首席执行长瓦格纳(Rick Wagoner)。通用和克莱斯勒的合并谈判目前已经搁置。

Sen. Chris Dodd on Sunday said the companies should have to restructure if they want a more significant bailout from Congress next year, according to the AP. The Connecticut Democrat, who heads the Senate Banking Committee, said on CBS's 'Face the Nation' that Chrysler probably ought to merge with another company and GM should be required to replace Chief Executive Rick Wagoner. GM and Chrysler have discussed a merger but those talks are on hold.

当前各方争论的另一个问题是:民主党资深人士要求,应禁止汽车生产商用政府提供的救助资金来对各州在汽车尾气排放方面的限制措施提出诉讼。

Also at issue: A demand by senior Democrats that auto makers be barred from using bailout funds to finance lawsuits challenging state car-emission limits.

许多民主党人之所以反对动用旨在提高燃油效用的政府贷款来给汽车公司应急,是担心美国汽车工业会因此而在环保承诺方面开倒车。来自加利福尼亚州的众议院议长佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi) 和其他民主党人曾敦促布什总统允许汽车生产商也从救助金融服务业的7,000亿美元中获得资金。而布什和许多共和党人则反对这一想法。人们还提出了其他一些构想,比如迫使从联邦政府救助资金中获益的银行向汽车生产商贷款等。

Many Democrats had opposed tapping the fuel-efficiency loans out of concern the industry would backtrack on its environmental commitments. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) and other Democrats had pushed Mr. Bush to give the auto makers access to the $700 billion pool created to aid the financial-services industry. Mr. Bush and many Republicans oppose the idea. Several other ideas, such as forcing banks benefiting from the federal rescue funds to lend to the auto makers, also have been floated.

动用燃油效用项目贷款给汽车公司应急一直是白宫乐于采用的办法,布什上周五又再度对这一想法表示了支持。他说,应采取一些强有力的保护措施以确保这些贷款能够偿还。他说,我担心这些汽车公司的生存能力,我同样担心纳税人的钱被提供给那些可能无法生存的企业。

Tapping the fuel-efficiency program has been the White House's favored approach and was endorsed by the president again Friday. Mr. Bush said strong protections should be imposed to ensure the loans are repaid. 'I am concerned about the viability of the automobile companies,' he said. 'Likewise, I am concerned about taxpayer money being provided to those companies that may not survive.'

通用汽车的瓦格纳和克莱斯勒公司首席执行长纳德利(Robert Nardelli)支持对汽车工业提供临时救助的想法。他们说,通用汽车和克莱斯勒要想支撑到明年3月份,它们分别需要100亿和40亿美元的救助资金。他们同意,作为获得这些救助资金的先决条件,他们将保证从全美汽车工人联合会(UAW)等方面(包括债权人)获得让步。瓦格纳对国会议员们说,不采取行动无异于一场难以消除的灾难。

GM's Mr. Wagoner and Chrysler's Robert Nardelli endorsed the idea of interim aid. They said $10 billion is needed for GM and $4 billion is needed for Chrysler to survive through March. As a condition of such loans, they agreed to secure concessions from the United Auto Workers union and others, including creditors. 'It would be an unmitigated disaster' not to act, Mr. Wagoner told lawmakers.

全美汽车工人联合会主席葛蒂尔芬格(Ron Gettelfinger)周日表示,他希望国会本周能通过救助汽车工业的计划。据美联社报导,葛蒂尔芬格认为政府需要立即对汽车工业施以援手。

UAW President Ron Gettelfinger said Sunday he is hopeful Congress will pass a rescue plan this week. He said immediate government help is necessary, the AP reported.

由于越来越多的国会议员质疑克莱斯勒的控股股东Cerberus Capital Management LP为何不对该公司提供援助,克莱斯勒寻求政府救助的努力面临复杂局面。纳德利上周五表示,他已向Cerberus寻求帮助,但却遭到了拒绝。 Cerberus的一位发言人对这一说法提出了异议。他说, Cerberus及其下属机构一直在以各种能想到的方式对克莱斯勒提供不懈帮助。

Chrysler's efforts have been complicated by increasing congressional scrutiny about why its majority owner, Cerberus Capital Management LP, doesn't help the auto maker. Mr. Nardelli said Friday he has appealed to Cerberus for help and was turned down. A Cerberus spokesman disputed that characterization. 'Cerberus and its affiliates have worked tirelessly to assist Chrysler in every imaginable way,' the spokesman said.

虽然克莱斯勒和通用汽车的首席执行长上周短暂讨论了是否重开合并谈判的问题,但双方同意他们需首先致力于获得联邦政府的贷款。

The chief executives of Chrysler and GM last week briefly discussed whether to restart merger talks but agreed they need first to focus on securing federal loans.

据知情人士说,克莱斯勒已聘请Jones Day就可能提出破产保护申请向其提供法律咨询。克莱斯勒称,几周前它聘请了Jones Day和其他顾问机构“就各种可行选择提供广泛的独立分析”。Jones Day拒绝对此发表评论。

Chrysler has hired Jones Day to provide legal counsel for a possible bankruptcy-court filing, according to people familiar with the matter. Chrysler said that several weeks ago it retained Jones Day and other advisers 'to provide a comprehensive independent analysis of the various options available.' Jones Day declined to comment.

国会议员们和白宫还在制定一系列旨在保护纳税人利益的条文。内容包括对管理人士薪酬和股息支付设定限制以及使政府获得三大汽车公司控股权的措施。

U.S. lawmakers and the White House also were working on a series of provisions designed to protect taxpayers. They include limits on executive compensation and dividend payments and a measure giving the government an ownership share in the companies.

民主党人和白宫希望国会的共和党人能参与到这一救助行动中来。正在制定的救助法案虽然仍不大可能受到共和党人的普遍欢迎,但可能已经变得更易为他们所接受了,原因在于,根据这个方案,救助资金将来自已获得批准的250亿美元燃油效用贷款项目,而不是出自7,000亿美元的金融服务业救助资金。

Democrats and the White House have hopes of bringing congressional Republicans on board with the rescue effort. The emerging bill still will likely be unpopular with Republicans but might have become more palatable because it is funded from already-approved loans -- in the $25 billion fuel-efficiency program -- and not the $700 billion financial-services rescue package.

Greg Hitt / Jeffrey McCracken / Matthew Dolan

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081208/bus094145.asp