戈恩──汽车业“双料”CEO

How Nissan, Renault CEO Is Shifting Gears

2008年01月28日14:12

大约十年前，卡洛斯?戈恩(Carlos Ghosn)拯救了濒临倒闭的日产汽车(Nissan Motor Co.)，使之跻身于世界上盈利能力最强的汽车生产商之列。戈恩也因此声名远扬。

NEARLY a decade ago, Carlos Ghosn rose to fame for rescuing Nissan Motor Co. from near collapse and turning it into one of the world's most profitable auto makers.

如今，身为日产和雷诺公司(Renault SA)“双料”首席执行长的戈恩认为，全球汽车工业需要类似的时运逆转。由于美国汽车市场疲软、新兴市场迅速扩大，加之消费需求从高油耗车型向低成本、低油耗的绿色汽车转变，目前世界上各大汽车生产商正处于命运的十字路口。

Today, Mr. Ghosn, 54 years old, now chief executive of both Nissan and Renault SA, sees the global auto industry in need of a similar reversal of fortune. Strained by a weak U.S. market, rapid expansion in emerging markets and a shift in demand from gas guzzlers to ultra-low-cost cars and fuel-sipping green vehicles, the world's auto makers are at a crossroads.

上周，雷诺和日产宣布了数项宏大计划，表示将开发面向大众市场的电动车。本月，日产还表示将与克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)合作生产一款小型车，在南美市场销售。

Last week, Renault and Nissan announced ambitious plans to develop mass-marketed electric vehicles. Nissan this month also said it would team up with Chrysler LLC to produce a compact car that the U.S. auto maker would sell in South America.

戈恩生于巴西，父母都是黎巴嫩人。他在法国接受教育，精通六门语言。戈恩有时坐镇东京，有时亲临巴黎。最近，他来到《华尔街日报》位于纽约的办公室，与大家分享自己对汽车工业的看法。

Born in Brazil to Lebanese parents, educated in France and fluent in six languages, Mr. Ghosn divides his time between Nissan's headquarters in Tokyo and Renault's offices in Paris. He stopped at The Wall Street Journal's offices in New York recently to share his thoughts on the auto industry. Excerpts:

《华尔街日报》：你如何评价美国的汽车市场？

WSJ: What is your assessment of the U.S. auto market?

戈恩：我们在美国的低迷状态已经持续了四年之久，销售额和细分市场都很疲软。美国正在从大型皮卡、货车和豪华车向小型车转型，所以销售额和产品组合都会受到打击。你知道，很多汽车生产商在小型车上都不赚钱，利润主要依靠大型车，因此当市场从大型车向小型车转型时，大部分乃至所有生产商的利润都会遭受双重的影响。

Mr. Ghosn: We've been in a slump in the U.S. now for four years. It's not only in number but also in segment. You are moving from large pickup trucks, vans, luxury products to smaller cars. So you have a double hit. You have a hit in numbers. You have a hit in mix. You know that many car manufacturers don't make any money on small cars. They make money on the larger cars, so when the market moves this way it's a double impact in terms of profit on most of the car manufacturers, if not all of them.

《华尔街日报》：汽车市场上受挫最严重的是哪些公司？

WSJ: Who is hurting the most in this market?

戈恩：很明显是美国汽车业三巨头。那么它们还能承受多大的压力，接下来的情况会如何？这对全行业来说都是个很重要的问题。

Mr. Ghosn: Obviously, the Big Three. So how much more are they going to be able to sustain this kind of pressure and what's going to happen? That's a very important question for all the industry.

《华尔街日报》：是否每个汽车生产商都能在这种恶劣的环境下挺过来？

WSJ: Can all the auto makers survive in such a tough market?

戈恩：不是。

Mr. Ghosn: No.

《华尔街日报》：那么未来三年，美国汽车工业的前景将如何？

WSJ: So what will the U.S. auto industry look like in three years?

戈恩：目前三巨头的市场份额正在缩小，未来三年还会继续下降。看看（印度的Tata Motors）正在收购捷豹和路虎。欧洲的汽车生产商可能也会提出收购某个品牌或部分业务。

Mr. Ghosn: The market share of the Big Three, which is shrinking, is going to continue to shrink. Look at [Tata Motors Ltd. of India] now buying Jaguar and Land Rover. You may have European car manufacturers making proposals of taking a bit or a brand or a piece here or there.

《华尔街日报》：那么当一切尘埃落定时，美国还会不会有一个本土的汽车工业？

WSJ: So when it's all over, is there a native U.S. automobile industry?

戈恩：坦白地讲，我不知道。我能告诉你的是，到那时情况将与现在大不相同。不过我不知道最后是剩下一、两个，还是一个都不剩了。

Mr. Ghosn: Frankly, I don't know. I can tell you it's going to be very different from today. But whether there is going to be one left or two left or none left I don't know.

《华尔街日报》：那么美国之外的汽车市场情况又会如何呢？

WSJ: What about the non-U.S. auto market?

戈恩：目前，日本、西欧和美国之外的汽车市场都在蓬勃发展。2007年，俄罗斯增长30%，中国增长20%，印度增长20%，巴西、阿根廷和南美洲都增长了25%。并不是整个汽车工业都在崩溃。不是这样的。如果你在这些迅速发展的市场上业务不错的话，你就没有问题，因为你可以用这些市场的增长来弥补另外一些低迷市场上的损失。

Mr. Ghosn: It's booming if you go out of Japan, Western Europe and the U.S. . . . In 2007, Russia, 30% increase. China, 20% increase. India, 20% increase. Brazil, Argentina, South America, 25% increase. It's not a question that the whole industry is collapsing. No, if you have a good exposure in these booming markets you are doing fine because you are compensating what you are losing on one side by what's developing on the other side.

《华尔街日报》：新兴市场能保持住目前的增长率吗？

WSJ: Can the emerging markets continue to grow at those rates?

戈恩：不能。如果美国市场下滑了，其他市场也会受到影响。所以，中国就不会以25%的速度增长，而可能是10%；俄罗斯的增长率也不会是30%，而可能是15%了。虽然市场还在增长，但增长速度会放缓。

Mr. Ghosn: No. If the U.S. declines, it is going to hit the other markets. Now, instead of China booming at 25% it will probably grow at 10%. Instead of Russia growing at 30%, it will probably grow at 15%. Reduced growth, but still growth.

《华尔街日报》：你将如何应对低成本汽车市场上来自中国和印度的挑战？

WSJ: How are you going to meet the challenge from China and India in the segment of low-cost cars?

戈恩：Tata推出了Nano（售价2,500美元的“平民汽车”），我第一个指出应该严肃对待这个问题。我们也要研发出类似的汽车。但是，我马上又意识到法国或日本的工程师不可能造出2,500美元的汽车，因为思维定式就是如此。所以我们认为应该由印度去完成这一使命。我们决定（与Bajaj Auto Ltd.）合作。Bajaj是家生产三轮车的公司，对他们来讲，从“三轮”到“四轮”是一种提高，因为“四轮”汽车是高端产品。这是一种进步，因为他们过去都是在生产成本为1,000到1,200美元的产品。

Mr. Ghosn: Tata came up with the Nano [the $2,500 'people's car'] and I was the first one to say that is serious. We are going to come with a car similar to this one. But I recognize immediately that it is impossible with French engineers or Japanese engineers to do a $2,500 car because it's quite a mindset. So what we said is Indians have to do that. So we decided to pool with [Bajaj Auto Ltd.]. Bajaj is a maker of three-wheelers, and for them, moving from three wheel to four wheel is moving up for them because it's high-end. For them it's moving up because they are used to making products with a cost of $1,000 or $1,200.

《华尔街日报》：雷诺和日产会生产什么样的电动车？

WSJ: What will the Renault-Nissan electric car look like?

戈恩：普通的四座汽车。我们也可以生产轻型商用车或是两座车。

Mr. Ghosn: It's a normal car, a four-seater. We can do a light commercial. We can do a two-seater.

《华尔街日报》：市场对电动车有没有需求？

WSJ: Is there commercial demand for an electric vehicle?

戈恩：现在已经有公司要求我们提供电动车了，比如邮政公司、电力公司。很多这样的公司都拥有大规模车队。电动车市场需求很大，但是还没有产业化的生产。

Mr. Ghosn: You have companies already today asking for electric cars. Postal companies. Electric companies. Many of them have huge fleets. We have a huge market, but no offer as an industry.

《华尔街日报》：你对现有的电池技术满意吗？

WSJ: Are you comfortable with the battery technology as it exists?

戈恩：现有的技术？我不满意，但是对其发展前景还是看好的。我们正准备生产一款电池，实际上我们把它当作一项核心业务来做。我们已经（与日本电气(NEC)）签订了协议。日产、雷诺和日本电气正在联合研发一款锂电池。这种电池将把电动车的性能提升到一个新的水平，其充电时间、汽车的独立性、汽车重量和价格将被世界上大部分用户所接受。我们认为在大众市场上销售已经指日可待。

Mr. Ghosn: As it exists? No. But as we see it happening? Yes. Because we are preparing to produce a battery inside the alliance. We consider it practically as a core business. We have signed an agreement with [NEC Corp.]. Nissan-Renault-NEC are working together on a lithium-ion battery, and the lithium-ion battery is going to allow us to reach a level of performance on the electric car which we think is going to be acceptable to most users in the world relative to how much time it takes to charge the car, what is the autonomy of the car [and] what is the weight and cost of the car. We think we are near a solution which is going to allow a mass marketing of the [electric] car.

《华尔街日报》：华盛顿方面制定了新的法律，要求在未来15年，将平均燃油经济性的标准提高50%，日产对此有何看法？

WSJ: What is Nissan's position on Washington's new energy legislation that raises average fuel-economy standards by 50% in the next 15 years?

戈恩：日产一开始就表示，我们应该采取开放、积极的态度，因为不管我们怎么说，公众都期望环保型汽车。就是这样。我们嘴上是否说这与全球变暖有关，这无关紧要。我们必须将之变成现实。

Mr. Ghosn: Nissan said from the beginning we ought to take a very open and positive stance because whatever our conviction, the public is expecting cars which are, in terms of emissions, very friendly. Period. It does not matter if we contest that this is relevant for global warming. We have to deliver it.

《华尔街日报》：为什么雷诺和日产之间的“联姻”能维持这么长时间，而像戴姆勒和克莱斯勒这样的“联姻”却以失败告终？

WSJ: Why has the Renault-Nissan alliance survived for so long while other alliances such as DaimlerChrysler have failed?

戈恩：从一开始就没有雷诺的人对日产说，“知道吗？我们的系统比你们的好，所以你们要用我们的，就是这样。我不知道日本的做事方式是怎样的，但我们会以法国的方式做事。”最开始的时候，就没有这样的问题。这是合作，而不是收购。我们还将继续以一种非常自主的方式发展这两家公司。

Mr. Ghosn: From the beginning it was not Renault people saying to Nissan people, 'OK, you know what? We have a better system than you and you're going to copy ours and that's it. I don't care about the Japanese way of doing things. We are going to do it the French way of doing things.' All this was put out the back door from the beginning. That's a partnership. That's not an acquisition. We are going to continue to develop the two companies in a very autonomous way.

《华尔街日报》：一家公司在东京，一家在巴黎，你如何管理这两家公司呢？

WSJ: How do you oversee two companies when one is based in Tokyo and the other based in Paris?

戈恩：我努力将时间平均分配给雷诺和日产。当然，你周围的人都必须是你完全信任的人。组织机构里不能有漏洞。战略必须清晰明了，预算要一清二楚，轻重缓急也要非常明确。这样，即使你不在场，人们也能毫无后顾之忧地进行决策，因为他们掌握了全面的情况，目标也很明确。只有当他们有问题的时候，才会给你打电话。

Mr. Ghosn: Trying to divide my time 50/50 between Renault and Nissan. Obviously you have to be surrounded by people that you trust completely. There is no hole in the organization. The strategy has to be clear. Budgets have to be clear. Priorities have to be very clear so people are comfortable about making decisions even if you are not here because they have clear set of reference, clear set of goals. They call you only when they have a problem.

《华尔街日报》：你计划还会担任雷诺和日产的“双料”首席执行长多久？

WSJ: How long do you plan to remain CEO of both Renault and Nissan?

戈恩：我认为我不会一直在两个大陆之间做“空中飞人”，管理两家公司。我想在某个时期可以这样做，不过到了某个时候，总会需要采用新的体系，由两位首席执行长和一个董事会对这两家公司进行管理。

Mr. Ghosn: I don't think I'm going to do it forever, managing two companies on two continents and flying around. I think it's good for a period, but there is a moment where you are going to have to go for another system with two CEOs with a board for the alliance.

《华尔街日报》：目前的管理方式是如何运作的？

WSJ: How is the arrangement working for now?

戈恩：我听说在世界500强中，我是唯一一个做这种“滑稽事”的人，管理着两个大陆上的两家不同的公司。我正在努力以一种对两家公司的股东来说都合理的方式进行管理。目前为止，我挺过来了。

Mr. Ghosn: I've been told that in the 500 largest companies in the world I'm the only guy doing this funny thing of managing two companies on two different continents. I'm trying to do it in a way where it makes sense for both shareholders. So far I'm surviving.

John Murphy

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080128/eoe144600.asp

转载笑话一则

At a recent computer expo (COMDEX), Bill Gates reportedly compared the computer industry with the auto industry and stated:

"If GM had kept up with technology like the computer industry has, we would all be driving twenty-five dollar cars that got 1,000 miles to the gallon."

In response to Bill's comments, General Motors issued a press release stating (by Mr. Welch himself):

"If GM had developed technology like Microsoft, we would all be driving cars with the following characteristics:

1) For no reason whatsoever your car would crash twice a day.
2) Every time they painted new lines on the road you would have to buy a new car.
3) Occasionally your car would die on the freeway for no reason, and you would just accept this, restart and drive on.
4) Occasionally, executing a manoeuvre such as a left turn, would cause your car to shut down and refuse to restart, in which case you would have to reinstall the engine.
5) Only one person at a time could use the car, unless you bought "Car95" or "CarNT". But then you would have to buy more seats.
6) Macintosh would make a car that was powered by the sun, reliable, five times as fast, and twice as easy to drive, but would only run on five percent of the roads.
7) The oil, water temperature and alternator warning lights would be replaced by a single "general car default" warning light.
8) New seats would force everyone to have the same size butt.
9) The airbag system would say "Are you sure?" before going off.
10) Occasionally for no reason whatsoever, your car would lock you out and refuse to let you in until you simultaneously lifted the door handle, turned the key, and grab hold of the radio antenna.
11) GM would also require all car buyers to also purchase a deluxe set of Rand McNally road maps (now a GM subsidiary), even though they neither need them nor want them. Attempting to delete this option would immediately cause the car's performance to diminish by 50% or more. Moreover, GM would become a target for investigation by the Justice Department.
12) Every time GM introduced a new model car buyers would have to learn how to drive all over again because none of the controls would operate in the same manner as the old car.
13) You'd press the "start" button to shut off the engine.

印度或成丰田汽车下一战场

For Toyota, India Offers New Frontier

2008年01月11日12:58

丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)的销量在过去几十年中不断增长，并有可能已在2007年成为了全球最大的汽车制造商，这主要是因为公司在美国市场实现了稳步发展，丰田汽车已在美国人心目中树立起了可靠耐用的良好形象。但它的下一个战场将是印度等新兴市场，目前这些地区的消费者主要关心的还是价格问题，因此丰田对可靠性的重视正使其逐渐落后于竞争对手。

Toyota Motor Corp.'s past decades of sales growth -- which might have made the Japanese company the world's largest car maker for 2007 -- came largely from a steady buildup in the U.S., where it developed a reputation for reliability and durability. But its next battleground is in emerging markets like India, where low cost is the main concern for consumers so far -- and Toyota's focus on reliability is leaving it trailing its competitors.

丰田汽车周四宣布，2007年全球销量增长了6%，达到937万辆，略高于通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.) 930万辆的2007年预期销量。通用汽车尚未公布07年的销量数据，不过，除非实际销量高出预期，否则丰田汽车将成为去年的汽车销量冠军，夺走通用汽车占据76年的霸主地位。

Toyota Thursday announced a 6% rise in global sales last year to 9.37 million vehicles, a bit more than General Motors Corp.'s sales estimate of 9.3 million vehicles for 2007. GM has yet to release its actual sales figures for the year. But unless they come in higher than its estimate, Toyota will become the world's biggest auto maker for the year, dislodging GM from a title it has held for 76 years.

丰田汽车的成功很大程度上应归功于它在美国市场的崛起。在美国，该公司通过制造省油的小型轿车起家，一些最受欢迎的车型也在美国生产，如卡罗拉(Corolla)和凯美瑞(Camry)、汉兰达(Highlander)等运动型多用途车、新款Tundra小型货车以及普锐斯(Prius)混合动力车。

Toyota's success is in large part because of its energies in the U.S., where it started as a fledgling auto maker known for its small, gas-sipping vehicles. It went on to produce some of the most popular vehicles in the country, including the Corolla and Camry, sport-utility vehicles such as the Highlander, the new Tundra pickup and the Prius hybrid.

但分析师一直批评丰田汽车对进入“金砖四国”（巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国）市场反应过于迟缓，市场份额落后于其他下手更快的竞争厂商。全球汽车市场研究机构CSM Worldwide Inc.的数据显示，通用汽车2007年在这四个市场中的合计销量超过了丰田汽车。通用汽车的优势意味着，即使丰田汽车2007年的总销量超过了通用，但今年也未必能巩固住这一地位。

But analysts have criticized the company for moving too slowly into the so-called BRIC markets -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- and losing market share to other, more nimble competitors. GM outsold Toyota in the combined four countries in 2007, according to CSM Worldwide Inc., a global auto-market research firm. GM's strength in these markets means that even if Toyota does turn out to have outsold GM in 2007, it might not retain that top position this year.

总体而言，在全球前20大汽车市场中，通用汽车在其中15个市场仍领先于丰田，不过CSM的预测显示，丰田2013年前会在其中一些市场中超过通用汽车。

In all, GM remains ahead of its Japanese rival in 15 of the world's 20 largest car markets, though forecasts by CSM show Toyota overtaking the U.S. firm in several of these by 2013.

在印度，竞争厂家一直在大力制造超低价格的轿车，以满足首次购车者。这些人无力购买那些比较上档次的轿车，只希望有个比摩托车高级一些的代步工具就行。印度最大的汽车厂商Tata Motors Ltd.在周四推出了世界上最便宜的轿车Nano，售价100,000卢比，约合2,500美元。其他轿车厂商也表示要步Tata的后尘。Bajaj Auto Ltd.计划同日产汽车(Nissan Motor Co.)和雷诺公司(Renault SA)合作生产小型轿车，在2至4年内推向市场。

In India, rivals have been striving to produce ultracheap cars to satisfy first-time car buyers who can't afford a full-scale car but want something more than a motorcycle or scooter. On Thursday, Tata Motors Ltd., India's top vehicle maker, unveiled the world's cheapest car, the Nano, which will be priced at 100,000 rupees, or about $2,500. Other car makers are promising to follow Tata's lead. Bajaj Auto Ltd. plans to manufacture a small car with Nissan Motor Co. and Renault SA that will be introduced in two to four years.

在Nano 推出之前，铃木汽车(Suzuki Motor Corp.)在印度销售的轿车最为便宜。该公司销售的0.8升Maruti 800的价格大约是Nano的两倍。铃木汽车通过其合资公司Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.在印度的轿车市场中占据了半壁江山。

Until the introduction of the Nano, Suzuki Motor Corp., which controls half of India's car market via its Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. joint venture, sold the cheapest car in India. Its 0.8-liter Maruti 800 is nearly double the price of the Nano.

分析师表示，丰田汽车对印度市场持谨慎态度的一个关键原因是难以在面向印度普通大众生产的同时维系其产品安全可靠的声誉。东京一桥大学 (Hitotsubashi University)组织行为学教授Kazuo Ichijo表示，丰田认识到生产廉价轿车需要大力压缩成本，但他们不想在质量上做出任何牺牲。

Analysts say a key reason for Toyota's cautiousness in India has been the difficulty of mass-market producing while maintaining a reputation for reliability and safety. 'Toyota recognizes the necessity to do radical cost reduction to produce cheaply,' says Kazuo Ichijo, a professor of organizational behavior at Hitotsubashi University in Tokyo. But 'they don't want to make any sacrifice in terms of quality.'

不过，丰田正在努力满足俄罗斯市场上的新兴需求。去年12月，丰田在俄罗斯的首家工厂投产，公司计划再建一家年产量目标为20万至30万辆的工厂。

Still, Toyota is rushing to meet new demand in Russia, where it opened its first factory in December and has plans to build a second with an annual production goal of 200,000 to 300,000 vehicles.

丰田的谨慎也源于工程师和设计人员的短缺现状，建设更多的工厂、推出新车都需要这些人才。近年来车辆召回事件多得反常，连新款Tundra小型货车也上了黑名单。为此丰田的管理人员经常为出现的过错而道歉，也让人们担心丰田汽车的质量可能已经打了折扣。

Toyota's caution also comes from its shortage of engineers and designers, who are required to help build more plants and new cars. Recent years have seen an unusually high number of recalls, including of the new Tundra full-size pickup. These prompted Toyota executives to apologize for their errors and raised fears that quality was being compromised.

丰田还面临着高管人员离职现象增多的问题。去年，37岁的外籍董事会成员、公司资深管理人员吉姆?普瑞斯(Jim Press)跳槽到克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)，另一位高管吉姆?法雷(Jim Farley)则加盟了福特汽车公司(Ford Motor Co.)。

Toyota also has had turnover with senior personnel. Last year, Jim Press, a 37-year Toyota veteran and the top non-Japanese board member, left for Chrysler LLC, and Jim Farley, another top executive, was lured away by Ford Motor Co.

不过，分析师仍相信丰田能够克服这些挑战。KBC Securities驻东京分析师安德鲁?菲利普斯(Andrew Phillips)称，丰田只有在非常有把握的情况下才会有所动作。有时谨慎会让他们止步不前，但你会发现，一旦丰田开始行动，他们就会做得非常好。

Still, analysts remain confident Toyota can overcome these challenges. 'They don't do anything until they're very comfortable about it,' says Andrew Phillips, an analyst for KBC Securities in Tokyo. 'Sometimes that caution has held them back. But what you'll find is once Toyota starts to do something, they do it very well.'

去年，丰田汽车的增长主要受到了发展中国家市场的推动。丰田在中国的销量跃升62%，达到了50万辆。在中东，石油财富带动了对新车的大量需求，丰田的销量实现了19%的增长。非洲市场的销量比2006年增长了18%。而在美国，该公司的汽车销量仅温和增长了3%，至262万辆，在日本国内的销量更是下降了 4%，为226万辆。

Last year, growth was largely driven by sales to the world's developing markets. Toyota's sales in China jumped 62% to 500,000 vehicles. In the Middle East, where oil wealth is creating a huge demand for new automobiles, Toyota sales increased 19%. African sales rose 18% from 2006. By contrast, its U.S. sales were up a moderate 3% to 2.62 million vehicles, while sales in Japan fell 4% to 2.26 million.

近几个月来，丰田和通用一直在你追我赶地争夺销量第一的宝座。不过，即使丰田汽车胜出，这一成果也主要是象征性的。因为当初通用汽车的销量大大领先时，公司就面临着财务上的困难，由于销量下滑和退休金等成本的沉重负担而削减产量，业绩也出现了亏损。

Toyota and GM have been neck and neck competing for the crown of No. 1 car maker in recent months. But even if Toyota has moved ahead, the achievement is largely symbolic. Even when GM was well ahead in sales, it still struggled financially, cutting back production and hemorrhaging money because of declining sales and its heavy burden of costs, such as pensions for its retired workers.

分析师表示，即便丰田坐上了全球汽车厂商的头把交椅，丰田的管理人员也会将自满情绪挡在门外。瑞银证券日本有限公司(UBS Securities Japan Ltd.)驻东京分析师Tatsuo Yoshida认为，这意味着丰田不会有所松懈。它们只会再度制定出更宏大的计划。即使排名第一，管理层也不会庆祝，这不是丰田的风格。丰田总是在制造紧迫感。

Analysts say Toyota executives are resisting any tendency to become complacent if it becomes the world's top auto maker. 'It doesn't mean Toyota is relaxed. They just sharpen up their pencils again to further improve their position,' says Tatsuo Yoshida, auto analyst at UBS Securities Japan Ltd. 'Management is not celebrating the No. 1 position. That is not Toyota's nature. Toyota always creates a sense of urgency.'

John Murphy

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080111/ffe131614.asp

自动驾驶汽车能否拯救通用汽车

Could GM's Salvation Be Stuff of Science Fiction?

2008年01月08日10:18

身陷亏损窘境通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)准备斥资数百万美元来研发自动驾驶汽车，而长期以来人们都认为这种汽车只能在科幻小说中驰骋。

Mired in the gloomy reality of a money-losing present, General Motors Corp. is prepared to spend millions of dollars in pursuit of something long viewed as science fiction: a car that drives itself.

通用汽车的董事长兼首席执行长瓦格纳(Rick Wagoner)将在周二举行的拉斯维加斯消费电子展(Consumer Electronics Show)上发表主题演讲，介绍通用汽车的宏伟目标。为了让买家对自己改变看法，通用汽车付出了诸多努力，这只是其中之一。在瓦格纳看来，在不远的将来，集成了照相机、传感器、雷达和导航技术的汽车将能自动刹车和加速，会自己避免交通事故并预判出交通拥堵路段。他下定决心要让通用汽车成为该领域的领军者。

Chairman and Chief Executive Rick Wagoner will outline GM's ambitions tomorrow in a keynote address at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas as part of a larger effort to change buyers' perceptions of the auto giant. In Mr. Wagoner's vision of the not-too-distant future, vehicles crammed with cameras, sensors, radar and navigation technology will be able to brake and accelerate on their own, avoid accidents and spot congestion. And he's determined to have GM be seen as leading the way.

通用汽车的首席技术专家、瓦格纳的知己拉里?伯恩斯(Larry Burns)在上周接受访问时表示，通用汽车注意到原先基本上可以归入机械范畴的汽车正在越来越向电子化方向转型，他们认为在所有的汽车生产商中，通用汽车在全力推进这一趋势方面处于最有利的地位。

'We see vehicles going from being largely mechanical to becoming more and more electronic,' Larry Burns, chief technologist at GM and a confidant of Mr. Wagoner's, said in an interview last week. 'We can think of no auto maker that is better positioned to fully leverage this trend than us.'

在瓦格纳制定的振兴通用汽车，并与丰田汽车(Toyota Motor Corp.)相竞争的长期战略中，提高技术含量是其中的重要环节。他坚信，如果通用能在那些能改变游戏规则的创新技术上抢占先机，那么这将会解决通用汽车形像不佳这一根本问题。

Pushing the technological envelope is a key element of Mr. Wagoner's strategy for turning GM around and positioning the company to compete with Toyota Motor Corp. in the long term. He is convinced being the first with game-changing innovations is the solution to one of GM's fundamental problems -- its battered image.

与同在底特律的竞争对手福特汽车公司(Ford Motor Co.)和克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)一样，为了在北美市场实现盈利、夺回失去的市场份额，通用汽车一直在苦苦挣扎。造成这种状况的原因之一是很多消费者在产品质量问题上都是一朝被蛇咬，十年怕井绳，虽然这些问题现在基本都得到了解决，但他们仍然认为该公司发展缓慢，进而断然拒绝购买通用生产的汽车。

Like its crosstown rivals Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC, General Motors has struggled to make money and regain market share in North America in part because many consumers who were burned by GM's quality problems -- largely now a thing of the past -- still view the company as plodding and slow, and flatly refuse to drive GM vehicles.

瓦格纳拒绝就本文接收采访，但通用汽车的美国销售和市场总监马克?拉尼夫(Mark LaNeve)上周表示，公司相信必须在领先技术上挑战丰田，以此扭转购买者对通用汽车的负面看法，并重新赢回那些转投外国汽车生产商的顾客。

Mr. Wagoner declined to be interviewed for this article but Mark LaNeve, GM's U.S. sales and marketing chief, said last week that GM believes it must challenge Toyota on technology leadership in order to reverse the negative perception of GM and to win back customers who have defected to foreign makes.

拉尼夫说，很明显，目前丰田的声誉、财务状况和很多其他指标都处于领先地位，通用汽车需要取得这样的地位。

'Toyota right now clearly has a leadership position on reputation, financial results, many other measures,' Mr. LaNeve said. 'That's the position we need to attain.'

推动自动驾驶汽车的制造并非通用汽车唯一一个正在进行中的“登月”计划。瓦格纳还批准斥资进十亿美元在几年内推出电池动力汽车雪佛兰 Volt (Chevrolet Volt)。同时，该公司还正在研发氢燃料电池车。在拉斯维加斯消费电子展上，瓦格纳将展示一款用燃料电池驱动的凯迪拉克(Cadillac)概念车，该车能将氢转换成动力，而产生的废物只有水和热量。

The push to produce cars that can drive themselves isn't the only moon-shot project GM has in the works. Mr. Wagoner has also greenlighted a nearly billion-dollar effort to launch a battery-powered car, called the Chevrolet Volt, within a few years. At the same time, the company is working on vehicles that use hydrogen fuel cells. In Las Vegas Mr. Wagoner will show a Cadillac concept car powered by fuel cells, which would convert hydrogen into power while leaving behind only water and heat as waste.

这样做风险很大，因为汽车技术发展缓慢，比如今天的内燃机与100年前的就没有多大的改变。

It's a big risk. Technology moves slowly in the auto industry. Today's internal combustion engines are not radically different than those of 100 years ago.

虽然丰田旗下的普锐斯(Prius)混合动力车罕见地大获成功，但该公司在推动技术进步方面的很多努力还是以失败告终。丰田的雷克萨斯(Lexus)推出了一款能自动平行停车的豪华轿车，但这项功能对销售却没起多大的促进作用。其竞争对手大众汽车(Volkswagen AG)旗下的奥迪(Audi)甚至还对这项功能进行了嘲讽：大众有则广告称奥迪A4是为“那些自己会停车的人士而打造的一款豪华轿车”，广告中一辆奥迪A4在漂亮地转了180度后，完美地停在了车位里。

Toyota has one of the rare technology hits in its Prius gas-electric hybrid, but many attempts at moving the state of the art forward don't pan out. Toyota's Lexus division introduced a luxury sedan that can parallel park itself, but the feature hasn't done much for sales. One competitor, Volkswagen AG's Audi, even lampoons the feature: An ad touting the Audi A4 as 'the luxury car for people who can park themselves' shows the sedan screeching into a parking space in a controlled 180-degree spin.

本世纪早些时候，宝马汽车公司(BMW AG)推出了iDrive功能，汽车仪表盘上的一个旋钮可以象计算机鼠标一样控制车上的收音机、空调和其他电子设备。但很多顾客发现这个功能过于复杂，有些人甚至将其戏称为“why drive”（iDrive的谐音，意为为什么要开车）。

Earlier this decade BMW AG introduced iDrive, a knob in the center console that is used like a computer mouse for operating a vehicle's radio, climate control and other electronics. But many customers found it overly complicated; some derisively called it 'why drive.'

瓦格纳提出的由通用汽车引领自动驾驶领域的主张实为一场赌博。如果该技术最后失败了，将可能使通用汽车蒙羞，而不会改变人们的观念。上周瓦格纳还在一次网上聊天中承认，电池动力汽车Volt可能无法按计划于2010年前推出。

Mr. Wagoner is taking a gamble in suggesting GM will lead the way to vehicles that drive themselves. If the technology doesn't work, it could turn into an embarrassment rather than a mind-changer. Just last week Mr. Wagoner acknowledged in an online chat that the battery-powered Volt might not be ready by GM's target of 2010.

虽然通用汽车还有足够的现金维持数年的运营，但它的资源并不是无穷无尽的。去年第三财季该公司亏损了390亿美元，而且公司暗示在短期内不太可能扭亏为盈。

And while GM has enough cash to keep it going for several years, its resources aren't unlimited. It lost $39 billion in the third quarter and has indicated it's unlikely to make money soon.

通用汽车管理人员称，在周二的演讲中，瓦格纳将证明自动驾驶汽车与我们的距离实际上比很多人以为的要近。

In his speech tomorrow, Mr. Wagoner will argue that autonomous vehicles are actually closer than many people would believe, GM officials said.

伯恩斯说，先进电子器件成本的大幅下降应会在未来10年中为自动驾驶汽车领域带来一些重大进步，问题是什么时候这种趋势才能形成气候。

Mr. Burns said that the rapidly declining cost of advanced electronics should lead to 'several significant advancements in this arena over the next decade.' The question, he added, 'is when will a tipping point take place.'

他还说，自动驾驶应包含的一些功能现在已经能够实现。很多汽车都装配有能够控制引擎和制动以防止打滑的电子设备。一些豪华轿车还有“自适应巡航控制系统”(adaptive cruise control)，可以自动制动或加速来保持与前车的设定距离。现在数百万辆在路上行驶的车都装有通用汽车开发的OnStar通讯系统。未来这项技术可能会成为交通事故预防技术的核心，当两辆配备了通讯系统的汽车有相撞的危险时，事故预防技术就会及时发挥作用。

He also said some of the building blocks needed for an autonomous vehicle already exist. Many cars have electronics that take control of the engine and brakes to avoid skids. Some luxury cars have 'adaptive cruise control;' they can brake or accelerate automatically to maintain a set distance to a vehicle in front. Millions of vehicles on the road now have GM's OnStar communications system. In the future it could provide the backbone for accident avoidance technology that kicks in if two vehicles equipped with communications systems are in danger of colliding.

在拉斯维加斯消费电子展上，瓦格纳将展示一款能自动驾驶和导航的试验性运动型多用途车(SUV)。这款名为Tahoe Boss的汽车是由通用汽车和卡内基梅隆大学(Carnegie Mellon University)的一个小组共同研发而成的，曾在2007年11月份美国国防部(Defense Department)举办的竞赛上获得了200万美元的最高奖。在该次竞赛上，参赛的无人驾驶车辆必须在一个模拟的市区环境中穿行60英里。

In Las Vegas, Mr. Wagoner will show an experimental sport-utility vehicle already capable of driving and navigating on its own. Developed by GM and a team from Carnegie Mellon University, the Tahoe Boss in November competed in a Defense Department competition in which unmanned vehicles had to travel 60 miles through a mock urban environment. It won the $2 million first prize.

尽管如此，自动驾驶技术仍然需要很长时间才能进入商用领域，而且也不能保证通用汽车就是第一个推出该技术的公司。其他几家汽车生产商也在开发自动驾驶汽车。丰田和大众都研发出与通用汽车相似的试验性汽车。奔驰汽车制造商戴姆勒公司(Daimler AG)目前生产采用了“主动制动辅助”(active brake assist)技术的卡车，它能扫描前方路面上的障碍物或是行驶速度有所放缓的车辆，并在司机反应不及时进行制动。

Still, the technology is a long way from commercial use, and there's no guarantee GM will be first to offer it. Several other auto makers are also working toward autonomous vehicles. Both Toyota and Volkswagen have experimental vehicles like GM's. Daimler AG, maker of Mercedes-Benz vehicles, now builds trucks with 'active brake assist' technology that scans the road ahead for obstacles or slowing vehicles and brakes if the driver is slow to respond.

《汉森机动车电子报告》(Hansen Report on Automotive Electronics)的出版商保罗?汉森(Paul Hansen)说，他认为自动驾驶汽车要真正上路还需要很长一段时间。不过他赞赏通用汽车做出的努力。

Paul Hansen, publisher of the Hansen Report on Automotive Electronics, said he thinks the likelihood of autonomous vehicles hitting the road in the foreseeable future is remote. Nevertheless, he applauds GM efforts.

汉森说，他认为通用汽车这样做是为了让人们意识到它的科技水平比人们有时认为的要高；大家会这样想，如果他们能造一辆自动驾驶汽车，那么他们也绝对能造一辆很棒的凯迪拉克。

'I think GM does things like this to help people realize GM is higher tech than sometimes they get credit for,' Mr. Hansen said. 'People will say to themselves, 'If they could build a car that drives itself, then they can surely build a great Cadillac.''

John D. Stoll

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080108/ffe103622.asp

现代汽车进军豪华轿车市场

Hyundai's Luxury Move

2008年01月08日13:24

韩国最大的汽车制造厂商现代汽车公司(Hyundai Motor Co.)花了20年时间让欧美用户相信，现代造出的汽车也能与欧美车媲美，现在它又有了宏伟的计划，想吸引富有的宝马(BMW)和雷克萨斯(Lexus)买家购买其首款豪华车型。

After spending 20 years trying to convince Americans and Europeans that Hyundai could build cars as good as their own, South Korea's largest car maker has grand plans to woo the affluent buyers of BMW and Lexus to the company's first luxury models.

现代推出了一款名为Genesis的新车，将于周二在韩国发布，在美国上市的时间则为今年6月。凭借这款车，现代大胆跃入了已拥挤不堪的高端轿车市场。这个细分市场中的轿车售价在3万美元以上，质量毋庸多言，而车的形象也更为重要。

With a new sedan called Genesis, which will be launched in South Korea today and in the U.S. in June, Hyundai Motor Co. is boldly jumping into the market for $30,000-plus sedans, a crowded field where quality is a given and image matters much more.

现代表示，将尽力说服客户购买其第一款后轮驱动的Genesis汽车，宣称该款车的性能堪比德国豪华轿车品牌，而价格较后者低廉。虽然最终的定价尚未确定，但Genesis的起价预计会在3万至3.4万美元的区间内，而宝马3系轿车起价则为4万至4.4万美元。包括旗下子公司起亚(Kia)在内，现代的产量在全世界汽车厂商中排名第六。

Hyundai, the world's No. 6 car maker by volume,including its Kia subsidiary, says it will try to persuade customers to buy the Genesis, its first rear-wheel-drive vehicle, by touting that its performance is comparable to German luxury brands and its price is lower. While final pricing hasn't been set, Genesis is expected to start in the low $30,000 range, compared with the low $40,000s for a BMW AG 3-series sedan.

但现代也冒着巨大的风险。首先，在现代采取行动的今年，美国的汽车销量预计将下跌5%左右，而美国是全球最大的汽车市场，也是现代除韩国之外最重要的市场。

But Hyundai is taking a huge risk. For a start, the company is making the move in a year when sales in the U.S., the world's largest car market and Hyundai's second-most important after Korea, are expected to drop by about 5%.

除此而外，现代以自己的名字推出这款汽车，而没有像丰田汽车(Toyota Motor Corp.)的雷克萨斯和日产汽车(Nissan Motor Co.)的Infiniti那样，推出一个新的高级轿车专用品牌。这样是在冒险，赌自己能让高端买家相信现代这个品牌的名声会越来越好。

What's more, Hyundai is offering the vehicle under its own name rather than starting a new premium-focused brand, as Toyota Motor Corp. did with Lexus and Nissan Motor Co. did with Infiniti. It is gambling that an upscale buyer can be persuaded that the reputation of the Hyundai name is rising.

现代美国分公司负责市场营销的副总裁乔尔?伊万尼克(Joel Ewanick)说：“我们要将这款车放在现代家族中。它从根本上表达了现代真正的形象。”

'We're going to keep it in the Hyundai family,' says Joel Ewanick, vice president of marketing for Hyundai's U.S. unit. 'It's the ultimate expression of what Hyundai really stands for.'

现代今年将大大增加利润较低的小型车生产，并力图实现全球销量增长19%的目标，在这种情况下，Genesis就成为其提高利润宏伟战略的组成部分。分析师说，上述销售目标有点过于激进了，因为韩国市场基本持平，而美国市场还在下滑。

For Hyundai, the Genesis is part of an ambitious strategy to help drive profits in a year when it is sharply boosting production of low-margin small cars and targeting a 19% increase in unit sales world-wide. That sales target is aggressive when the Korean market is flat and the U.S. is falling, analysts say.

Good Morning Shinhan Securities的资深分析师Kevin Lee说：“高油价令人们更关心燃油效率，因此现代必须将重点放在中小型轿车的销售上。”Genesis的利润率在20%左右，Lee表示这款车会平衡现代在小型车及印度和东欧等发展中市场的扩张。

'The high oil price is making people more interested in fuel efficiency, so Hyundai has to focus on selling mid-sized and small cars,' says Kevin Lee, senior analyst at Good Morning Shinhan Securities. With profit margins of about 20%, Mr. Lee says Genesis counterbalances Hyundai's expansion in small cars and developing markets like India and Eastern Europe.

但这种“只要造出来就有人买”的想法曾经有过事与愿违的时候。就在去年，现代就没能达到利用美国、南亚和欧洲市场容量扩张的机会实现大幅增长的既定销售目标。

But that kind of build-it-and-they-will-come ambition has backfired before for Hyundai. Just last year, the company missed an aggressive sales goal created to take advantage of expanded capacity in the U.S., South Asia and Europe.

虽然近年来现代汽车的质量已经赢得好评，但它仍然要靠优惠措施和向车辆租赁公司销售来清空存货。尽管去年美国市场总体销售不佳，现代的市场份额还是实现了增长，但在第四季度，现代在阿拉巴马的一个刚投产一年的工厂因产大于销而停产两周，这种举措在新开的工厂很少见。

Despite achieving high scores for quality in recent years, Hyundai's had to rely on incentives and sales to rental agencies to clear inventories. In the U.S., Hyundai gained market share in a year of lower overall sales, but it idled a year-old factory in Alabama for two weeks in the fourth quarter -- a rare step for a new facility -- because production got ahead of sales.

现在，中国的制造厂商正在崛起，其方式与现代在20世纪八、九十年代所用的一样，因此现代没有别的选择，只能进军高端市场。

With China's manufacturers now starting to rise in the same way Hyundai did in the 1980s and 1990s, the company had little choice but to push upmarket.

为了Genesis，现代在韩国建设了一家大型工厂，并极力敦促供应商制造高质量的零部件，在某些方面还超过了宝马和梅塞德斯-奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)的制造商戴姆勒公司(Daimler AG)等厂商要求的规格。现代研究和产品开发主管Lee Hyun-soon说：“我们以雷克萨斯为标杆，还有宝马5系和梅塞德斯的E系车型。”

For Genesis, Hyundai built a giant factory in South Korea and pushed its suppliers hard to create parts that, in some cases, exceed the specifications sought by manufacturers such as BMW and Daimler AG, maker of Mercedes-Benz cars. 'We used Lexus as a benchmark, together with the BMW 5 series and Mercedes E class cars,' says Lee Hyun-soon, Hyundai's chief of research and product development.

汽车音响供应商Harman/Becker设计了Genesis的整合驾驶信息系统和立体声音响。Harman/Becker副总裁特德?梅杰(Ted Metzger)说，该系统将使用Lexicon品牌，此前Harman只在劳斯莱斯(Rolls Royce)车中使用这个品牌。

Car-audio supplier Harman/Becker designed the integrated driver information system and stereo in Genesis. The system is getting the Lexicon brand that Harman previously used only with Rolls Royce, says Ted Metzger, a Harman/Becker vice president.

现代对这款车极为自信，让记者、经销商和供应商试驾Genesis，与梅塞德斯和宝马的车型进行对比。这款车的内部隔音良好，其安全和稳定控制系统堪比其他豪华轿车品牌。

Hyundai has so much confidence in the car that it has been allowing journalists, dealers and suppliers to drive Genesis on its test track against models from Mercedes and BMW. The car is pindrop-quiet inside and has the same advanced safety and stability controls as other luxury brands.

Genesis是现代过去几年中推出的一系列高档车型中最新的一款，该系列从雅尊(Azera)开始，去年的Veracruz SUV是第一款定价3万美元以上、主要在美国销售的车型。

Genesis is the latest in a series of successively more expensive cars from Hyundai over the past few years, starting with the Azera sedan, and followed by last year's Veracruz SUV, its first car to predominantly sell for more than $30,000 in the U.S.

但Genesis也给现代带来了营销方面的极大挑战，尤其是在美国市场。现代在美国一直将自己定位为比丰田和本田汽车(Honda Motor Co.)等日本品牌价格更低廉的选择。其经销商网络规模较小，也很少有自己的销售点。在展厅里，现代通常也是二、三线品牌。

But Genesis poses a huge marketing challenge for Hyundai, particularly in the U.S. where the company has long positioned itself as a less-expensive option to Japanese manufacturers such as Toyota and Honda Motor Co. Its dealer network is smaller and its cars tend to be offered in few places on their own. Hyundai is often the second or third brand in a showroom.

这与大多在专用展厅销售的高档汽车形象背道而驰。在现代，Genesis只会被在展厅里占据一块特别装饰的单独地盘。

That runs counter to the image of upscale cars, which mostly are sold in exclusive showrooms. At Hyundai, Genesis will merely be placed in a separate part of the showroom with different decor.

过去几个月，现代在美国进行了名为“想想看”(Think About It)的广告宣传活动，试图重塑人们对现代汽车的看法，将它说成既省钱又明智的选择。在一幅平面广告中，现代打出的标题是“这个标志是告诉你，这辆车如何，而非你是谁”，此举向汽车形象的重要性发起了挑战，品牌形象是高档轿车至关重要的一个因素。

In the U.S. over the past few months, the company's 'Think About It' advertising campaign tried to reframe a Hyundai purchase as not just money-saving but smart. In a print ad in the campaign, under the headline 'The logo is there to tell you what the car is, not who you are,' Hyundai challenged the importance of image, a key premise of premium branding.

现代如何继续推进这一讯息将在今年晚些时候Genesis在美国上市前决定。伊万尼克正在拟定奢侈产品销售常用的营销活动，包括在现代经销商那里举行Genesis到货的庆祝活动，只接待受到邀请的来宾，以此营造一种专享的气氛。

Just how far Hyundai pushes that message will be determined later this year, closer to when U.S. sales begin for Genesis. Mr. Ewanick is drawing up marketing events that are common for selling a luxury product. That includes creating an air of exclusivity by hosting invited customers for special Genesis arrival events at Hyundai dealers.

在现代占市场主导地位的韩国，Genesis轿车及其未来的车型将作为单独的品牌销售，其标志是一个翼型图案。在一个电视广告中，现代刻画了Genesis轿车以100公里的时速撞上一辆奥迪A8的情形。两辆车都变形扭曲，几乎无法辨认──在习惯于认为本国产品质量较次的韩国市场，这个广告传达出了强有力的讯息。

In South Korea, where Hyundai dominates the market, the company will sell the sedan and future Genesis models as a separate brand, marked by a winged logo. In a TV commercial, Hyundai depicts the Genesis sedan in a 100-kilometers-an-hour crash against an Audi A8. Both the German car and the Korean one end up crumpled, almost indistiguishable -- a strong message for a market conditioned to believe domestic products are inferior.

Evan Ramstad

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080108/ffe133207.asp

Tata收购捷豹和陆虎谈判步入实质阶段

2008年01月04日10:17

福特汽车公司(Ford Motor Co.)正式确定印度Tata Motors Ltd.竞购它旗下捷豹(Jaguar)和陆虎(Land Rover)两大汽车品牌的优先地位。此举令福特公司通过出售资产提升整体盈利水平的计划迎来曙光，也凸显出Tata Motors要成为全球性汽车公司的雄心。

出售上述两个品牌的协议有望于未来几周敲定。

负责福特Premier Automotive Group及福特欧洲业务的执行副总裁刘易斯?布斯(Lewis Booth)称，福特将与Tata Motors在更具体的层面展开深入谈判。接下来仍有相当多的工作要完成。虽然尚未最终敲定交易，但公司将在未来几周与Tata Motors展开更实质性的对话来推动工作取得进展。

捷豹和陆虎是英国汽车史上最负盛名的品牌。而Tata Motors身为印度最大的汽车厂商，自从11月份被捷豹和陆虎的工会定为优先竞购方后，就一直在竞标中领跑。周四双方发布的声明让Tata Motors面对其他竞购方取得了牢固的优势。其他竞标者包括摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)旗下的私人股权投资公司One Equity Partners，以及由另一家印度汽车公司Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.与私人股权投资公司Apollo Management LP.组成的财团。

Tata Motors发言人迪巴西斯?雷(Debasis Ray)表示，可以证实的是，到目前为止公司与福特汽车就收购捷豹与陆虎事宜进行了积极的谈判，双方目前已进入更为深入与具体的谈判阶段。 公司对目前的谈判进程表示满意，对交易的前景非常乐观。

据知情人士透露，福特与Tata仍需进一步落实的问题包括涉及捷豹与陆虎汽车发动机供应的各项合同。这两个汽车品牌所使用的汽油和柴油发动机都要依靠福特。而英国方面的工会领袖要求确保不会因为更换东家而导致工人失业。捷豹和陆虎两个品牌在英国的雇员人数约为1.6万人。此外，福特设于英格兰的两家发动机厂有雇员3,900人，这两家工厂的客户中就包括捷豹和陆虎。

一位了解福特汽车情况的人士在谈到周四的声明时称，虽然这并不意味着其他竞标方已经出局，但现在的风向对Tata有利。

目前外界普遍预计福特会赔本卖出捷豹和陆虎。美林公司(Merrill Lynch & Co.)去年公布的一份报告预计福特出售捷豹和陆虎的总收入介于13亿至15亿美元，相比之下福特在1989年和2000年购入捷豹和陆虎的代价分别为25亿美元和27.5亿美元。

捷豹、陆虎，以及瑞典沃尔沃汽车公司(Volvo Car Corp.)同属于福特的Premier Automotive Group旗下。虽然福特不单独公布其欧洲豪华车品牌的业绩，但该公司承认捷豹已经亏损多年。目前仍不清楚Tata将为收购两个品牌付出多大的代价，双方均对收购价守口如瓶。

虽然陆虎仍然盈利，但在全世界不断提高燃油经济性、严格排放标准的大环境下，此品牌与捷豹一样面临巨额的新车型开发成本。福特汽车去年决定出售这两个豪华车品牌，也是新任首席执行长艾伦?穆拉利(Alan Mulally)重新关注核心品牌策略的组成部分。

福特汽车周四表示，2007年12月份在美国的轿车和轻型卡车销量下降9%。而利润最高的卡车及运动型多用途车销量则下滑9.5%。2007年福特在美国市场的汽车总销量下降12%。

对身为印度大型企业集团的Tata Group而言，收购捷豹和陆虎将有助于其成为第一批获得国际认可的印度汽车品牌。与其他印度公司一样，强劲增长的本土市场成为Tata Group在全世界范围收购技术、公司和品牌的助推器。去年该公司以超过120亿美元的代价将英荷钢铁厂商Corus Group PLC纳入麾下。

通过收购捷豹和陆虎，Tata Group将获得技术来生产更好的汽车，以满足逐渐壮大的印度中产阶级的需要。同时Tata Group还将取得所需的全球销售网络，将自己的产品推向海外市场。

Tata Motors按计划要在周三发布其可能是全世界价钱最便宜的量产轿车，其售价可能只有2,500美元。分析师表示，虽然这款新车与捷豹和陆虎是定位完全相反的产品，但Tata Motors可以从这两个豪华车品牌身上学到如何建立品牌和开展国际经销。

Eric Bellman / Stephen Power

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080104/beu102204.asp