Detroit's Return On Capitol
在蒙提?派森喜剧组合(Monty Python)的一个经典段子中，狡诈的宠物店老板向约翰?克里斯(John Cleese)指出鹦鹉的“美丽羽毛”，试图转移他对鹦鹉已死这一事实的注意力。
In a classic Monty Python sketch, a shifty pet-shop owner attempts to distract John Cleese from the fact that his parrot is dead by pointing out the deceased bird's 'beautiful plumage.'
与此类似，有关救助底特律三大汽车制造商的争论经常显得就像是在荒谬剧场上演的闹剧一样。汽车业的高管们这次煞有介事地驾着混合动力汽车前往华盛顿──确实是“美丽羽毛”，不过也仅此而已。
Similarly, the debate on bailing out Detroit's three auto makers often seems to play out in a theater of the absurd. Senior industry executives make a great show of driving down to Washington in hybrid vehicles -- 'beautiful plumage' indeed, but that is all.
与此同时，很多人认为三巨头破产的威胁是站不住脚的，尽管这对现有股东施加了最后的压力。
The threat of bankruptcy, meanwhile, is dismissed by many as untenable, despite the fact that it provides the ultimate leverage over existing shareholders.
假设底特律三巨头得到了救助。那么一个重要问题是：谁的牺牲最大？一个回答是：谁最有资本可以牺牲？
Assume Detroit gets its bailout. An important question then is: Who sacrifices most? One answer: Who has the most to sacrifice?
通用汽车(General Motors)是三巨头中规模最大，也是日子最不好过的公司。该公司计划将有效负债降低一半至300亿美元。通用汽车目前欠一个员工自愿福利信托基金 (VEBA) 200亿美元，以换得卸下退休人员医疗责任。通用汽车还欠有抵押债权人60亿美元债务，欠无抵押债权人360亿美元。
General Motors, the biggest and hardest-pressed of the three, aims to roughly halve its effective debt burden to $30 billion. Currently, it owes $20 billion to a voluntary employee-benefit association in return for offloading retiree health-care obligations. Secured creditors are owed $6 billion, while another $36 billion is due to unsecured lenders.
关于哪一方损失最大的问题各有各的说法，但瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)分析师赛拉索(Chris Ceraso)提出了三种假设。所有假设都假定，有抵押债权人能够保全投资。工会成员已经在VEBA协议达成时被减免了28%的未偿还债务。根据赛拉索设想的核心场景，他们还会再削减100亿美元的债务，或将其转化为持股，从而实际减免一半的债务。这会导致无抵押债权人被迫放弃将近220亿美元，只能获得 41%的债权。
There are infinite scenarios regarding which side takes the biggest hit, but Chris Ceraso, analyst at Credit Suisse, posits three. All assume secured creditors are made whole. Union members originally took a 28% haircut on outstanding liabilities when the VEBA was agreed. Under Mr Ceraso's central case, they would lose another $10 billion, or take it as equity, making the effective haircut 50%. That would leave unsecured lenders having to forgive almost $22 billion, giving them 41 cents on the dollar.
参议院周四的听证会之所以要加入任命一个联邦监督机构的内容，也是希望就这个问题达成协议。正如巴克莱(Barclays Capital)分析师布莱恩?约翰逊(Brian Johnson)所指出的，政府可能会借鉴1979年救助克莱斯勒(Chrysler)的经验。政府可能会做个坏警察，非得等到利益相关者作出重大牺牲后才出手相救。
The challenge of getting agreement on that is why Thursday's Senate hearings were laced with talk of appointing a federal overseer. As Brian Johnson, analyst at Barclays Capital, points out, this would borrow from the 1979 Chrysler playbook. Government would be the bad cop, withholding the lifeline until stakeholders make big sacrifices.
这正是一些参议员对破产威胁采取不屑一顾的态度可能造成不良后果的原因。毕竟破产阴影是大家最关心的。工会成员清楚，若汽车制造商申请破产，VEBA协议也可能随之改变。与此同时，债券持有人从来不愿见到公司破产，即便是那些以不到两折价格购入通用汽车债券的人。
That is why it is counter-productive for some senators to simply dismiss the bankruptcy threat. After all, fear of bankruptcy focuses minds. Union members know VEBA agreements are likely to be changed in Chapter 11. Bondholders, meanwhile, never relish working through a bankruptcy, even those that scooped up GM's debt for less than 20 cents on the dollar.
公司管理层已经在薪水上作出了牺牲，现在能做的就只有离职了。
The executives, having sacrificed their salaries, have only their jobs left to give.
还有股东呢？克莱斯勒的私人资本股东看起来陷入了政治风险，而且因为有观点怀疑这家底特律三巨头中最小的公司实在太重要以致于无法任其倒闭。
And shareholders? Chrysler's private-equity shareholders look exposed politically and because there is skepticism that the smallest of the Detroit three really is too big to fail.
通用汽车和福特汽车(Ford Motor)现在市值加起来还不到100亿美元。他们的股东已经几乎没什么可让步的了。不过，如果公司接受债务换股权的换股方案，或是增股融资稀释股份，这些股东可能会被迫损失殆尽。以此看来，这两个公司现在股价还有好几美元真是荒谬至 。
GM's and Ford Motor's combined market value is less than $10 billion. Their shareholders have comparatively little to give. Yet they will probably have to give virtually all of it anyway in a debt-for-equity swap or dilutive equity increase. On that basis, the fact that these stocks still command several dollars each is the final absurdity.
Liam Denning
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