Rebound in Oil Prices? China Is the Wild Card
油价反弹会令消费者雪上加霜，而过去两天这种情况已经出现。
One development that could add to consumer woes would be a rebound in oil prices, which have bounced in the past couple of days.
但也存在一个油价反弹不会持久的充分理由，那就是中国的石油需求可能比许多人预计的要疲弱。
But there is a good reason to think the trend won't last: Oil demand in China may be softer than many expect.
中国政府最近发布的报告显示，中国商界人士的信心正在急剧下滑。上周晚些时候公布的新华财经/MNI中国企业信心调查结果显示，中国企业总体信心指数由11月份的39.9跌至12月份的35.2，连续第三个月创历史新低。这一调查针对中国152家公司的高层管理人士进行，信心指数低于50则表明企业总体信心转为负面。
A recent government report showed confidence among Chinese businessmen is waning rapidly. The sentiment index of the Xinhua Finance/MNI business survey, a poll of executives at 152 companies in China released late last week, hit a third consecutive record low in December, dropping to 35.2 from 39.9 in November. A reading of 50 indicates neutral sentiment.
另据美国独立石油分析师及中国市场观察人士Paul Ting估计，中国11月份的石油需求较上年同期减少了3.9%。他在周一发布的一份报告中写道，预计中国12月份的石油需求将比去年同期下降4.5%，他部分是基于中国炼油企业对石油的疲弱需求作出这一判断的。
Meanwhile, in November, oil demand in China was down 3.9% from a year ago, based on estimates by Paul Ting, an independent U.S.-based oil analyst and observer of Chinese markets. Mr. Ting wrote in a Monday report that he expects oil demand in December to decline 4.5% from last year to 7.4 million barrels a day, based in part on soft demand from Chinese oil refineries.
不过本月早些时候中国下调了燃油价格，这有可能提振中国的石油需求。中国政府将于1月初公布12月份原油进出口数据，将能让人们更多了解中国的石油需求情况。如果数据显示中国的石油需求依然疲弱，那人们就大可以认为油价短期内不会大幅上升了。
Still, earlier this month China slashed fuel prices, which could boost demand. In early January, the Chinese government's report on crude imports and exports for December will shed more light on oil demand in the country. If it continues to show weakness, that will be a good reason to think oil prices won't be zooming higher anytime soon.
Scott Patterson
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