2010年5月30日星期日

全球汽车业复苏在望 亚洲增长可能受阻

Autos rev up for recovery, but Asia may stall

全球汽车业复苏在望 亚洲增长可能受阻

TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- The global auto sector looks poised for a recovery, but some analysts remained wary of the prospects -- particularly for the Japanese, Chinese and Indian markets -- because of the potential for rising manufacturing costs and uncertainty surrounding consumer spending.

全球汽车业看起来有望复苏,不过一些分析人士仍对复苏前景持谨慎态度,特别是对日本、中国和印度市场,原因是制造成本可能上升以及围绕消费支出的不确定性。

'The recovery of the global auto sector looks to be stronger than the macroeconomic recovery in many regions, driven by demand and pricing,' Moody's Investors Service said in an industry outlook report released Thursday.

穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service)周四在一份行业预测报告中说,受需求和价格的推动,全球汽车业的复苏看起来比很多地区的宏观经济复苏要强劲。

Significant capacity was removed in the U.S. through restructuring, and there's been an 'increase in demand, which picked up by 13% between January and April 2010 compared to the same period a year ago, with the U.S., China and emerging markets such as India and Brazil the key drivers,' said Falk Frey, a senior vice president in Moody's Corporate Finance Group.

穆迪企业融资(Moody's Corporate Finance Group)高级副总裁弗莱(Falk Frey)说,美国通过重组削减了大量产能,而需求则有所上升,2010年前四个月需求同比增长了13%,其中美国、中国以及印度和巴西等新兴市场是主要的推动力。

Moody's upgraded its outlook for the global automotive manufacturing industry to positive from stable on May 19 after raising it to stable from negative in February.

继2月份穆迪将全球汽车制造业的预期从“负面”上调至“稳定”之后,5月19日又从“稳定”上调至“正面”。

The ratings agency, however, 'cautions that these changes do not mean it believes there is nothing but open road ahead of these companies.'

不过,该评级机构提醒说,评级上调并不意味着穆迪认为这些企业未来的路都是一帆风顺的。

'Certain key risks remain that could yet threaten the recovery' for the auto industry worldwide, the Moody's report said.

穆迪在报告中说,某些关键风险依然存在,可能会对全球汽车业的复苏造成威胁。

'Rising prices of raw materials, especially steel and precious metals, could squeeze margins towards the end of 2010,' Frey said.

弗莱说,原材料价格的上升──特别是钢材和贵金属价格的上涨──可能会造成2010年底之前利润率持续收窄。

And 'sovereign worries in Europe could slow down the economic recovery, reduce consumer spending and impact financing in the case of spill-over effects to the banking system,' he said.

他说,欧洲的主权债务危机可能会令经济复苏放缓,消费支出减少,因对银行体系的“溢出效应”而影响融资。

China caution

对中国要保持谨慎

Those risks appear to be even more prevalent for the Asian auto industry.

上述风险看起来对亚洲汽车业更加普遍。

China's auto industry may even be set to see 'negative growth' in the fourth quarter of this year.

中国的汽车业甚至可能会在今年四季度经历“负增长”。

At an annual shareholders' meeting earlier this week, SAIC Motor Corp.'s President Chen Hong said he expected China's vehicle sales to contract in the fourth quarter, analysts at Yuanta said in a recent note to clients.

元大证券分析师在最近的客户报告中说,在本周早些时候召开的年度股东大会上,上海汽车总裁陈虹说,他预计四季度中国的汽车销售将会收缩。

But Chen maintained his confident outlook that SAIC will sell 3 million cars in 2010 -- a year-on-year increase of 13%, the Yuanta analysts said.

不过元大分析师说,陈虹坚持其乐观的预测,认为2010年上海汽车销量将达300万辆,同比增长13%。

高盛上周发布的一篇研究报告说,今后三年,中国的汽车市场将保持两位数增长,尽管中国政府正在逐步撤销刺激措施。

高盛的分析师们预计,到2020年,中国的轻型汽车市场年销售量总计将达3000万辆,占全球需求的28%。

日本市场受阻

日本方面,本田汽车公司(Honda Motor Co.)在中国的四家汽车厂据报道已因配件厂工人持续罢工而全部关闭,这使得本田汽车近来的情况一直较为复杂。

分析师说,这种情况可能会影响本田在华合资的汽车制造厂。

元大证券(Yuanta)分析师预计罢工将很快解决,因中国市场对本田很重要。不过在周五发布的一篇研究报告中,他们也指出,本田在中国有两家合资伙伴,即骏威汽车有限公司(Denway Motors Ltd.)与东风汽车集团股份有限公司(Dongfeng Motor Group Co)。

元大证券分析师说,骏威受配件停产的影响要比东风大,而且如果罢工在今年其余时间持续,按元大预期的收益计算,预计骏威的收益将损失50%,而东风将损失约17%。

而日本汽车市场要恢复则面临全面挑战。

穆迪(Moody)在其报告中说,2011年销量可能反映出日本汽车制造商面临更大的国内销售挑战,即随着社会老龄化,驾车者会减少,而大部分城市居民不愿拥有汽车。

税负问题

就印度而言,摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)分析师说,在印度政府批准提高新车上路税的提议后,新德里的乘用车及两轮车价格将上涨。

摩根大通分析师在近期的一篇研究报告中说,车辆税上调2%至6%将进一步抬高汽车产品价格。

摩根大通分析师说,尽管新德里目前税负已经上调,但其它大城市是否有类似举措还有待于观察。

因车辆运行成本增加,行业增长率预计将放缓,摩根大通分析师重申对乘用车及两轮车行业的谨慎观点。

http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20100528/ffe155529.asp

Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

2010年5月7日星期五

现代索纳塔:性价比之王?

Hyundai Sonata: Most Car for the Least Money?

现代索纳塔:性价比之王?

No one will ever write erotic poetry about the Hyundai Sonata. No courting suitor ever promises a woman, 'Darling, I'll give you the moon, the stars, a Sonata with cloth seats...' Snooki from 'Jersey Shore' will be named secretary of agriculture before a Sonata crosses the field at the Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance classic-car show. These things are appliances, disposable widgets, destined to wind up as brightly colored cubes of crushed and fused metal, the unlamented scat of our mobility society.

从没有人给现代索纳塔(Hyundai Sonata)汽车写过煽情的诗歌,从没有求婚者对女孩许诺说“亲爱的,我要为你摘下月亮和星星,我要给你买一辆布套座椅的索纳塔……”。要是索纳塔能在 “加州卵石湾经典汽车巡展”(Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance classic-car show)上亮相,美国新推出的真人秀节目《泽西海岸》(Jersey Shore)中的主角Snooki就能当上美国农业部长。这类汽车就是家用消费品,用用就换的东西,注定最后被送进报废厂,成为一堆五颜六色的金属块。在我们这个汽车王国里,没人会为此扼腕叹息。

But for now, be amazed. Be amazed that any company can put together a car with this much raw, unmitigated content-a 2.4-liter direct-injection four cylinder with variable valve timing on both cams; six-speed automatic with manual shift mode; iPod/USB/AUX jacks and Bluetooth; stability control and smart ABS; airbags and power amenities galore-wrap the whole thing in a 10-year powertrain warranty and push it out the door for $20,195. That's ridiculous, ridonkulous. This is the sort of scorched-earth pricing that makes other car makers consider a change in strategic direction. Perhaps there are some openings at Hardees?

但现在,你要大吃一惊了。这份惊奇来自竟然会有公司能做出这样一款新鲜出炉、顶级配置的车型 ──2.4升可变正时双气门调节技术的四缸直喷发动机,六速手自一体变速箱,iPod/USB/AUX接口和蓝牙技术,稳定的操控性,智能ABS系统,多气囊,丰富的内饰,以及惊人的十年质保承诺──而所有这些,只要20,195美元就能拿下。简直太、太荒谬了!这种低到极致的“地窖价”令其他汽车制造商不得不考虑战略转型。要不,干脆改行去做餐饮算了?

The 2011 Sonata-the sixth generation of the nameplate in the company's history-extends Hyundai's business plan in the U.S. market, which is summed up in the phrase 'overwhelming numerical leverage,' which I just made up. If you lay it out and compare the Sonata with its mass-market, suburbo-drone, I-wish-I'd-stayed-single competitors-Toyota Camry, Honda Accord, Chevy Malibu-the case for the Sonata is summary. On paper, at least, it's just more car for the money.

2011款索纳塔属于第六代车型,也是韩国现代公司进一步扩大美国市场份额的新武器。我给这款车的评价是“用数字说话,所向披靡”。如果摊开来与主流市场其他“孤芳自赏”的同类车型相比──如丰田凯美瑞(Toyota Camry)、本田雅阁(Honda Accord)和雪弗兰Malibu──索纳塔胜在“有容乃大”。至少从表面看,这款车物超所值。

Consider the intersection of these monster numbers from Sonata's spec sheet: 198 hp (200 hp in the dual-exhaust SE model) and 35 mpg highway. The four-cylinder Honda Accord LX serves up 177 hp while delivering a highway mileage a full 4 mpg less than the Sonata. The Honda is also $1,660 more dear.

让我们来看看索纳塔技术参数表中的惊人数字:198马力(双排气口的SE款为200马力),高速公路每加仑汽油可跑35英里(合百公里耗油6.7升)。四缸发动机的本田雅阁LX的马力为177马力,高速公路每加仑汽油要比索纳塔少跑整整4英里,而价格要贵1,660 美元。

I'm not saying the Sonata is a better car. Ah, hell no. I'm saying that if you set aside intangibles-things like brand modulus, styling, materiality, and the ineffable sense of quality you get when you touch and use engineered things-the Sonata is too persuasive to ignore. In a way, Hyundai's strategy is a brilliant adaptation to a car-buying environment increasingly driven by online data comparison. If you're an overscheduled public-school teacher and you need a new car, what are you going to do? You're going to fire up the computer, go to Edmunds.com or cars.com, plow through the numbers and conclude-not unreasonably-that the Sonata is the best deal out there. Then you're going to go to one dealership, the Hyundai dealership, take the Sonata around the block and think, Yeah, OK, nice.

我并不是说索纳塔要比其他同类车型胜出一筹。当然不是!我的意思是说,如果不考虑品牌、风格、质感等无形因素以及触摸和使用汽车时那种难以用语言表达出来的品质感,索纳塔几乎让你无法拒绝。从某种意义上说,现代公司的战略迎合了一种购车趋势,即消费者越来越注重在网上比较各种车型的技术参数,作为购买的依据。如果你是一位工作繁忙的公立学校老师,又想买一辆新车,你会怎么做?你会打开电脑,去Edmunds.com或 cars.com网站,比较各种技术参数并得出结论──而且不无道理──索纳塔是性价比最高的选择。然后你会去一个车行,现代汽车的车行,把索纳塔开出去转一圈,然后想:哇,不错,真不错。

Let me just run this by my sales manager.

接下来就是销售经理的事儿了。

Of course, all cars are in some sense political, since country of origin and economic policy are inextricable. And here the story turns a bit melancholy. The Sonata's awesome pricing occurs at the whip end of a long chain of factors, including the fact that it's built in a place with low wages, a low standard of living and an indifferent attitude toward workers' rights. Someone really should take up a collection for Montgomery, Ala.

当然,所有的汽车都带有一点政治色彩,因为产地国家不同,经济政策复杂。在这方面,索纳塔就有一个软肋,其惊人的低价是建立在一连串因素之上,比如索纳塔由位于美国阿拉巴马州蒙哥马力 (Montgomery, Ala)的现代汽车工厂负责生产,那里的工资不高,生活水平较低,对工人的正当权利较为漠视。

Hyundai, the world's fourth-largest car company by units sold, is hotter than the hinges of Hades right now. It posted a fivefold increase in profit in Q1 of 2010, to a tidy $1 billion, on the recovering world market and favorable currency-exchange rates. For obvious reasons, a stronger Japanese yen helps the Korean car maker enormously in the U.S.

按汽车销量来看,现代公司在全球排名第四,目前的经营状况可谓如日中天。2010年一季度,在全球市场复苏和汇率因素的支撑下,公司利润同比增长五倍,达到10亿美元。显而易见,日圆汇率走强降低了日本汽车的价格竞争力,使韩国汽车制造商在美国市场如鱼得水。

Hyundai's ambitions for the Sonata transcend the value equation, however. Like the larger and equally overachieving Hyundai Genesis sedan and coupe, the new Sonata is about elevating the image of the brand.

然而,现代公司在索纳塔上的野心不仅局限于性价比方面的优势。与尺寸更大而性价比同样优越的现代Genesis轿车及轿跑车一样,新款索纳塔也致力于提升现代品牌的高端形像。

Enter styling.

造型设计

This is a nice-looking car, and for all the blathering about remote keyless entry and the like, the styling-thoughtful, attractive, premium, by several degrees above the call of duty-is the feature that impresses me most. Wrought in what Hyundai calls 'fluidic styling'-trademark alert!-the car does have a handsome, hydraulic wholeness to it, like water flowing over a river rock. The bold 'light spear' along the side (the shallow draft under the accent line broadens as it goes back along the side of the car, creating a spear-like shadow) plays nicely against the back-drafting energy of the roof line. A little bit of Volkswagen CC in there, a little Mercedes-Benz CLS. The most sophisticated exterior touch is a thin chromic bow that runs from the headlamp to the C-pillar along the belt line, a brightwork meteor across the car's firmament. Lovely.

索纳塔的外形很好看,虽然关于其“遥控车门开关”等高科技手段的宣传很多,但让我印象最深的是它的富有创见、迷人的外观设计,比中规中矩的要求高出几个段位。现代公司精心打造一种“流动的雕塑”的设计语言(这个提法值得抢注成商标),而索纳塔整体而言确实有水流一般的漂亮效果,如同河水冲刷过礁石所呈现出的那样。车身侧面大胆地采取了“光矛”的设计(车身侧面的装饰线条在向后延展的过程中不断扩大,创造出一种长矛般的阴影),与车顶的动感回流线条交相辉映,有点大众CC(Volkswagen CC)的感觉,也有点奔驰CLS (Mercedes-Benz CLS)的味道。最优美的外部装饰是沿着腰线从前大灯延伸到C柱的一条细细的弓形镀铬线条,就像流星一样划过车身,魅力十足。

Deconstructing the styling a bit: The Sonata strikes me as an aspirational placeholder kind of car, the sort of choice that will speak to people on their way up to benchmark luxury brands like Lexus, BMW, Mercedes. A luxury-car starter kit, if you will. Those sorts of buyers will equate style-the evident and obvious exertions of style rippling across the Sonata-with pride of ownership. It's worth noting that Hyundai will soon introduce the Lexus-like Equus sedan to the U.S. market-figure the early $60,000s to start-and, knowing that, I can't help seeing the Sonata as the bottom rung of a luxury ladder Hyundai is building, year by year.

让我们来进一步体会一下这种外观设计:索纳塔给我留下深刻的印象,彷佛那种在梦境中应留有一席之地的汽车,让人不由自主地联想起雷克萨斯(Lexus)、宝马 (BMW)、奔驰等豪华车品牌。可以这么说,索纳塔是一款入门级的豪华车。贯穿于索纳塔各个方面的设计理念彰显出现代公司的不懈努力,将令这款车的拥有者油然而生一种骄傲的心情。值得一提的是,现代公司即将在美国市场推出与雷克萨斯有几分相像的Equus轿车,起步价为6万多美元。了解了这一点,我不禁会预想现代汽车会逐渐成为入门级豪华车的选择之一。

Inside, the Sonata is roomy, comfortable and has some interesting choices of materials-the door panels are a kind of plasticized taffeta-but overall the car's interior is more conventional and less surprising than the exterior. The central console pours down from the upper dash between the front seats in a graceful cataract of switches and displays. However, the plastics are hard, the seats feel a little thin and door latches and switches feel and sound hollow. If I were the chief project engineer for the Sonata...well, first of all, I'd hire an engineer to replace me. But then I'd put more substance, more structure, behind these touch areas.

索纳塔的内部空间宽敞舒适,在用材方面有一些有趣的地方──车门内板使用一种类似塔夫绸的塑化材料──但整体而言,这款车的内饰风格相对于外型设计来说更为传统,没有那么多的惊人之笔。中央控制台位于两个前座椅的中间,由上而下的排列十分流畅,各种开关和仪表优雅地分布其中。不过,车内使用的塑料比较硬,椅子感觉有点薄,车门开合的感觉不太厚重,声音有些空洞。如果我是索纳塔的工程总监…… 当然,我首先会请个更专业的来辅助我,然后我就会选择在这些人车经常接触的地方用上更多的材料,设计更好的构造。

Nowhere does the program of radical economizing show more than in the engine sound. For all its high-tech direct-injection efficiency, this thing has a positively antique sound, with a valve click so pronounced it almost sounds like a diesel. I actually took a flashlight to my test car to see if perhaps the exhaust manifold gasket had sprung a pinhole leak, or else it had inadvertently sucked up a set of castanets. If this thing is in spec then, please, somebody send the company a box of hearing aids.

没什么比发动机声音更显现出索纳塔极端的成本控制了。虽然这款直喷发动机科技含量和燃油能效较高,但声音着实有些古董车的风范,引擎阀门开合的卡哒声太过明显,听上去简直就像柴油发动机。事实上,我专门拿着手电筒打开我测试那辆汽车的前盖,看是不是排气集管垫片坏了导致出现针孔状漏气,还是发动机意外吸入了作响的异物。如果这个现象属于正常,那么麻烦哪位给现代公司直接寄去一盒助听器吧。

Two hundred horsepower absolves a lot, however, and the Sonata GLS gets down the road with dispatch, if not wild abandon. This is not a performance car by any means; still, the Sonata feels reasonably spry, with nicely controlled body roll, accurate steering with good feedback, and assured braking. The six-speed automatic, with the shifter in manual mode, helps the car shed its cast of servile domestication when the road opens up and the driving mood darkens.

不过,200马力的引擎足以平息一些怨言,索纳塔GLS的速度即使称不上狂放,也是够迅猛的。当然,这款车的性能算不上顶级,但驾驶感觉相当灵动,车控感很好,转向精确,路感反馈清晰,刹车也很到位。借助六速手自一体变速箱,在开阔道路上或是感觉有些沉闷时可切换为手动模式,让车子从老老实实的驯服状态一下子脱胎换骨。

The common midmarket midsize sedan executed uncommonly well, the Sonata is a one-car price war, a line in the sand, daring competitors to cross. Which they won't, will they? I am agog at its value. And if you have a four-letter yardstick with which you measure cars, C-A-S-H, you can stop your search here. Ditto if your yardstick says M-P-G. But I'm still not quite in love with Hyundai, still not inspired to write that love sonnet. I wait for the Equus, quill in hand.

索纳塔这款定位于中端市场的中型轿车表现不同凡响,足以引发一场价格战,形成一个市场标准,看哪个竞争对手敢于超越。但我想,敢于出头的竞争对手寥寥无几。我对索纳塔的性价比推崇备至,如果你最看重的是性价比,那么索纳塔就将成为你搜寻后的最终选择;如果你最看重的是燃油经济性,结果也是一样。不过,我尚未对现代汽车完全痴迷,还没找到灵感为索纳塔写一首情诗。我把笔拿在手中,期待现代Equus能让我有此动力。

DAN NEIL

http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20100507/ffe081740.asp

2010年5月5日星期三

汽车业成功复原给美国经济注入强心针

After The Crash, Auto Towns Revive

汽车业成功复原给美国经济注入强心针

A year after the U.S. government swooped in to rescue two crippled auto giants, the car business is showing signs of life again -- and so are local economies across the heartland that depend on it.

美国政府出手急救两家重疾缠身的汽车巨头已是一年前的事,现在汽车业再现生机,依托于汽车业的美国中部经济亦是如此。

As soon as General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC finished racing into and out of bankruptcy court last fall, orders for headlamps and other car parts began streaming back to two factories here in this southern Illinois hamlet. The factories quickly re-hired about 400 of their 550 laid-off workers, giving Flora, Pop. 4,772, a big shot in the arm.

随着通用汽车(General Motors)和克莱斯勒集团(Chrysler Group)在去年秋天先后进出破产法庭,对车灯及其他配件的订单也慢慢流回了伊利诺伊州弗罗拉市的两家汽车配件厂。于是它们忙不迭地在原来打发回家的 550名工人中又拉回来约400人,这可是给人口只有4772人的小城弗罗拉打了一剂超级强心针。

Local businesses are perking up. The Best Western just outside town occasionally fills all 41 of its rooms again. And shoppers are less scarce in Joe Etchison's appliance store. 'Last year, people were sticking with the basics and skipping the stainless-steel refrigerators,' he said, walking his downtown showroom trailed by Taz, his dog. People have 'figured out the world has not ended.'

本地商业也重振旗鼓。城外酒店Best Western的41间客房时不时会再度全满。家电零售商乔伊?埃奇逊(Joe Etchison)的顾客也多了起来,他说,去年大家都只买些最基本的东西,对不锈钢外壳冰箱什么的看都不看。埃奇逊一边在自己开设在城里的展厅内牵着自己的小狗塔兹溜达,一边说现在人们已经明白还没到世界末日。

Similar scenes are playing out across the Midwest, where the speedy stabilization of GM and Chrysler appears to have helped towns tied to the auto industry to get back on their feet more quickly than they may have otherwise.

整个美国中西部地区都在上演着这一幕。通用汽车和克莱斯勒的迅速企稳帮助了那些背靠汽车业发展的城镇恢复元气,而且它们的复原速度似乎要快于其他地方。

One year ago today, the Obama administration took a gamble and forced Chrysler into a Chapter 11 reorganization. Two months later, it did the same to GM, spending almost $65 billion of taxpayer money in an effort to prevent the two giants from collapsing and perhaps gravely injuring the economy as a whole.

一年前的今天,奥巴马(Obama)政府放手一搏,迫使克莱斯勒根据破产法第十一章进行重组。两个月后,政府又要求通用汽车也这么做。政府为此花费了纳税人大约650亿美元,为的是不让这两家汽车业巨头破产并给整体经济带来沉重打击。

With Washington pushing the process, both companies exited bankruptcy in just six weeks -- lightning speed compared to the years that some firms spend there. Auto-parts supplier Visteon Corp., for example, filed for bankruptcy protection four days before GM and still hasn't emerged from Chapter 11.

在美国政府的助推下,两家公司都在仅仅六周后就申请脱离破产保护,和其他汽车业公司可能需要的几年时间比起来堪称高速。举例来说,汽车配件商Visteon Corp.先于通用汽车四天申请了破产保护,直到现在还没有走出这一状态。

The taxpayer bailout remains controversial. The administration says it is unlikely to recoup all its money. GM and Chrysler are far from healthy. Many of the 400,000 auto jobs lost since 2008 are gone for good.

人们对汽车业救助计划仍存争议。美国政府说可能无法尽数收回资金。现在通用汽车和克莱斯勒也远远谈不上状态良好。从 2008年以来汽车业共削减了40万个工作岗位,它们当中大多将一去不复返。

And the bailout's precise economic impact is hard to pin down. Improvements in the U.S. economy, stabilizing home prices and this year's uptick in new-car sales are undoubtedly helping the industry, too.

这份救援计划的具体经济影响还难以确定。美国经济的改善、住房价格的回稳以及这一年间新车销量的增长无疑也帮助了汽车业。

The industry is by no means booming. In March, motor-vehicle and parts plants were operating at 54.4% of their capacity, according to estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank. That's a low level, historically -- 70% to 80% is considered normal -- but better than the low of 36.8% last June. In March, motor-vehicle and parts manufacturing was up 24.3% compared to the year-earlier period, according to the Fed. Overall manufacturing was up just 4.6%.

现在汽车业远非蓬勃发展。美联储银行估算,3月份汽车及配件工厂的开工率仅为54.4%,低于历史水平(据信70%至80%是正常值),但好于去年6月份时的36.8%。美联储数据显示,3月份汽车和配件生产同比增长了 24.3%,而其他制造业的产量增幅仅为4.6%。

'The goal [of the bailout] was to prevent the imminent collapse of two major manufacturers at a time when there wasn't an answer to when things were going to stop getting worse,' said Thomas Klier, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. 'From that perspective, it was effective.' Now it depends on 'how well [the companies] execute their business plans.'

美联储芝加哥分行经济学家克莱尔(Thomas Klier)说,美国政府汽车业救援计划旨在防范两大汽车巨头日益临近的破产,当时没人知道事情什么时候才能不再变得更糟;从这个角度看,它是成功的,现在它则取决于两家公司能把自己的业务计划执行得怎样了。

If GM and Chrysler had languished in bankruptcy, industry executives argue, things would have been far worse. 'I think the supplier industry would have collapsed and, for that matter, the U.S. economy,' said Matthew Simoncini, chief financial officer of seat maker Lear Corp., which itself sought bankruptcy protection last July. 'Ultimately the bailout has helped the suppliers. It allowed GM to remain viable, and the fact that it got back up and running quickly really helped the supply chain.'

企业业内高管认为,如果通用汽车和克莱斯勒真的走到了破产地步,那么整个事态会变得糟糕很多。汽车座椅生产商Lear Corp.的首席财务长西蒙斯尼(Matthew Simoncini)说,我认为汽车供应商也将破产,整个美国经济也是这样。该公司曾在去年7月份时寻求了破产保护。西蒙斯尼说,救援计划最终帮助了汽车供应商,让通用汽车活了下来,它的卷土重来和快速运转真的是盘活了整个供应链条。

Lear spent about 125 days in Chapter 11 last year, three times as long as GM. Now it, too, is hiring. A plant in Hammond, Ind., that supplies seats to Ford Motor Co. recently said it was adding about 250 more workers to the 170 employed there.

Lear在破产保护的状态中待了125天,比通用汽车多两倍。现在它也恢复了招工。一家设在印第安纳州哈蒙德、为福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)提供座椅的工厂近期表示,现在工厂有170名雇员,计划增雇约250人。

In Rogersville, Tenn., and Marion, Va., plants that make steering components recalled many workers once it became clear that Chrysler was staying in business. A Tenneco Inc. factory in Litchfield, Mich., recently rehired the 86 people it let go last year. TRW Automotive Holdings Corp., owner of the Rogersville and Marion plants, is also hiring at a Saginaw, Mich., plant that supplies GM.

在田纳西州的罗哲斯维和弗吉尼亚州的马里昂,生产驾驶系统元件的工厂在确定克莱斯勒将继续留在汽车行业中后纷纷召回了许多工人。一家位于密歇根州利奇菲尔德的Tenneco工厂重新聘用了86名去年解雇的工人。在罗哲斯维和马里昂开设了工厂的TRW Automotive Holdings Corp.也开始给密歇根州的沙吉诺工厂增加人手,这家工厂为通用汽车供货。

Auto sales are picking up. The industry is on track to sell about 11.5 million cars and light trucks in the U.S. market. That's a long way from the annual sales of 16 million from earlier in the decade, but up from last year's 10.4 million.

汽车销量正在上扬,整个行业有望在美国市场售出约1,150 万辆轿车和轻型卡车。这个数字相比几年前1,600万辆的年销量还有很远的距离,但高于去年的1,040万辆。

One thing in auto makers' favor: Americans are driving old vehicles, and a better economy might persuade them to buy new ones. Last year, the average passenger car in service was 10.6 years old, the highest level in more than a decade, according to R.L. Polk Co.

一个对汽车生产商有利的因素是,美国人开的都是旧车,如果经济形势好转,他们可能会去购买新车。R.L. Polk Co.的数据显示,去年在用乘用车辆的平均车龄有10.6年,是10多年来的最高水平。

At the same time, employment is brightening a bit. In Hawkins County, where Rogersville is located, unemployment eased to 11% in March, down from 11.6% a year ago. In Smyth County, home to the town of Marion, the March rate was 11.9%, down from 12.2%.

与此同时,就业环境也在慢慢改善。在罗哲斯维所在的霍金斯县(Hawkins County),3月份的失业率从一年前的11.6%下降到了11%。在马里昂镇所在的史密斯县(Smyth County),3月份失业率从12.2%下降到了11.9%。

The TRW steering plant, one of the largest employers in the county, laid off 75% of its 275 workers last year when Chrysler's survival was in doubt. After the auto maker was restructured and paired with partner Fiat SpA, the plant brought back most of its workers. Other suppliers, including Cooper-Standard Automotive, which makes fuel lines, and Hutchinson Worldwide, which makes rubber seals, are hiring, too.

TRW公司的转向部件厂是县里最大的雇主之一,去年在克莱斯勒面临生存考验时,工厂将275名工人裁减了75%。在克莱斯勒实现重组并与合作伙伴菲亚特(Fiat SpA)结盟后,工厂返聘了多数工人。其他供应商也在招人,其中包括生产燃油管的Cooper-Standard Automotive,以及生产橡胶垫的Hutchinson Worldwide。

In Rogersville, in northeastern Tennessee, home prices are down 20% from where they once were. Some residents are in danger of foreclosure or have already fallen victim to it, said Rhenda Carroll, who manages a prominent real estate agency.

罗哲斯维位于田纳西州东北部,其房价已较过去的水平下跌了两成。运营着一家知名房地产经纪公司的卡罗尔(Rhenda Carroll)说,一些居民面临着住房被止赎的危险,有的已经被止赎。

Now, home sales are showing some life, Ms. Carroll said. 'It's less bad, but it sure ain't like it used to be.'

卡罗尔说,目前住房的销售正在显现一些生机。她说,情况缓和了一些,但肯定赶不上过去的样子。

Lynn Lawson, head of the county's industrial recruiting agency, had a big win in 2008, persuading a Korean copper-wiring supplier, Sam Dong Co., to locate a plant in Rogersville. 'It's going to be a two- to five-year climb back,' he said. But with some auto-supplier jobs coming back, 'everybody has a bit of happiness floating around in them.'

2008年,霍金斯县工业招聘代理机构负责人劳森(Lynn Lawson)获得了一个巨大的成功。他劝说韩国铜线供应商Sam Dong Co.在罗哲斯维设立了一家工厂。他说,要回到过去的水平得有两到五年的时间,但随着汽车供应商的一些就业岗位得以恢复,人人心头都涌动着一些快乐情绪。

When GM and Chrysler went into bankruptcy protection and shut down their U.S. plants, many in Flora wondered how the town would weather the storm. 'It was nail-biting time,' said Mayor Bob Tackitt.

在通用汽车和克莱斯勒进入破产程序并关闭美国工厂时,弗罗拉的很多人在思考如何渡过这个寒冬。镇长塔基特(Bob Tackitt)说,那是一种让人火急火燎的日子。

There was good reason for concern. The auto industry had seen suppliers fall into bankruptcy in the past, and many turned into messy affairs. Delphi Corp., the former parts division of GM, filed for Chapter 11 in 2005, and battled with investors and creditors for four years before finally being reorganized.

当时的担忧不无道理。汽车行业曾出现供应商破产,很多供应商接着又陷入了麻烦。曾是通用汽车零部件部门的Delphi Corp.于2005年根据破产法第11章申请破产,接下来同投资人和债权人之间的纠纷延续了四年之久,过后才终于实现了重组。

But in the cases of both Chrysler and GM, the government's auto task force hammered out cost-cutting agreements with creditors, the United Auto Workers union and other parties before the companies filed. That eliminated much of the in-court wrangling.

但在克莱斯勒和通用汽车申请破产之前,美国政府的汽车行业特别工作组已经同债权人、全美汽车工人联合会(United Auto Workers)和其他各方达成了成本削减协议,这样就避免了很多法庭上的纠葛。

On June 10, after 41 days in bankruptcy court, Chrysler emerged as a new company owned by a UAW health-care fund, the U.S. and Canadian governments and Fiat. GM filed on June 1 and emerged on July 10, with the U.S. government owning 60% and Canada and the UAW fund holding smaller stakes.

6月10日,在走了41天的破产法庭手续过后,克莱斯勒成为一家新公司,由汽车工人联合会的医保基金、美国政府、加拿大政府和菲亚特共同持股。通用汽车于6月1日申请破产,7月10日重生,由美国政府持股 60%,加拿大政府和汽车工人联合会持有较小的股份。

Soon after, GM began bringing its plants back on line. Chrysler likewise restarted production, although at a slower pace than GM.

不久,通用汽车开始让工厂重新开工。克莱斯勒也恢复了生产,不过速度比通用汽车慢一些。

GM and Chrysler emerged from bankruptcy in 'an amazingly short period of time,' said Martin Fischer, president of Hella Corporate Center USA. Their quick return to production 'undoubtedly saved jobs and reduced operating losses at major North American suppliers such as Hella.'

Hella Corporate Center USA总裁费希尔(Martin Fischer)说,经过很短的一段时间,通用汽车和克莱斯勒就从破产中走出,快得让人吃惊,它们的迅速复产无疑挽救了工作机会,并降低了Hella等重要北美供应商的运营成本。

This year, with Flora's auto plants humming, downtown merchants are detecting a slow, welcome turnaround.

今年,由于弗罗拉的汽车工厂维持着生产,市中心的商户们迎来了缓慢而可喜的复苏。

At Shirt Tales, a shop stocked with everying from sporting goods to Jelly Belly jellybeans, a lot of parents were buying socks and belts to match their Little Leaguers' uniforms -- the bare minimum they could get by with -- said employee Janice Randall. Now, new gloves and $79 aluminum bats are selling, too.

有一家店铺名为“Shirt Tales”,从体育用品到“Jelly Belly”牌的软糖,里面各种各样的东西都有。店员兰德尔(Janice Randall)说,以前很多父母都是在为他们参加了少年棒球联盟(Little League)的孩子选购与制服搭配的袜子、腰带,这是他们的最低着装要求。现在,新款手套和79美元的铝制球棍也卖得出去了。

At the Ace hardware on North Street, owner Jeff Harr said customers are no longer sticking only to things they absolutely need. 'Sales of our patio furniture have gone from nothing last year to decent this year.' Mr. Harr once had 18 employees but cut back to 12. He's considering bringing on another person.

在该镇北大街的“Ace”五金店,店主哈尔(Jeff Harr)说,顾客们已经不再只买必备物件了。他说,去年我们的露台家具一件也没有卖出,今年销量还算不错。哈尔曾聘有18位员工,裁人后只剩下12位。他在考虑是不是再雇一人。

Jeff Bennett / Mike Ramsey

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