Saudi Arabia's Oil Equation
欧佩克遇到了一个算数问题。
OPEC has a math problem.
当石油需求上升的时候，欧佩克成员国会从扩大的产量大蛋糕里拿到额外的份额。但当需求下滑的时候（就像眼下这样），即使油价在下跌──量、价齐跌对现金流造成双重打击，他们也理应分担减产的痛苦。
When demand for oil is rising, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries take extra portions from the expanding output quota pie. But when it falls, as now, they are supposed to share the pain of lower production even as oil prices are declining, a double blow to cash flows.
作为欧佩克最大的成员国，协调、应对这些事情的负担大部分都落在沙特阿拉伯身上。
As the organization's biggest member, much of the burden of managing all this rests on Saudi Arabia.
不过，它还必须考虑消费者和长期需求。
Yet it also must consider its customers and long-term demand.
这正是欧佩克近期在原油价格持续下跌的形势下仍决定推迟进一步减产的主要原因。也因为这一点，油价看涨派几乎不能指望明年能从利雅德那里得到什么安慰。
This largely explains OPEC's recent decision to put off further output cuts, even as crude prices continued sliding. It also is why oil bulls can expect little relief from Riyadh next year.
沙特阿拉伯目前的日产量配额是850万桶。除去供应本国需求，可用于出口的有700万桶。金融服务公司GaveKal的大宗商品分析师Ahmad Abdallah指出，沙特2008年的预算是1,090亿美元。鉴于石油出口要提供沙特将近90%的公共收入，也就是说，油价必须在38美元以上沙特才能保证预算平衡。欧佩克今年的一篮子原油平均价格为每桶98.50美元。
Saudi Arabia's current output quota is 8.5 million barrels a day. After domestic use, that leaves seven million barrels for daily export. . With oil exports accounting for just under 90% of public revenues, that equates to an oil price of $38 a barrel Ahmad Abdallah, commodity analyst at financial-services firm GaveKal, points out that Saudi Arabia's 2008 budget was set at $109 billionto balance the budget. The OPEC basket price has averaged $98.50 a barrel this year.
纽约商交所原油期货价格仅上一周就下跌了17%，目前只有42美元。欧佩克一篮子价格通常较这个价格低5-10美元。假如明年纽约商交所原油期货平均为40美元，则欧佩克原油价格可能只有35美元，也就是说，沙特2009年的石油出口收入将降至890亿美元。
Nymex crude-oil futures, having dropped 17% in the past week alone, now command just $42. The OPEC basket price typically trades at a discount of $5 to $10. Were Nymex crude to average $40 next year, and OPEC crude $35, Saudi Arabia's 2009 oil-export earnings could drop to $89 billion.
问题是，这个价格预期或许需要欧佩克将日产量再下调大约200万桶。如果这个减产量一半落在沙特头上，则沙特的石油出口利润将降至770亿美元，这将导致其预算出现一个很大的缺口。
The problem is, that price forecast may require OPEC to cut perhaps another 2 million barrels a day. If Saudi Arabia contributed half of this, its implied export earnings drop to $77 billion, opening up a big deficit.
幸运的是，沙特已储备了石油美元来应付这种可能局面。它还有其他因素要考虑。
Fortunately for Saudi Arabia, it has stashed a cushion of petrodollars to manage this. It also has other factors to consider.
中国政府上周五宣布，将把国内成品油价格和国际市场更紧密地挂钩。这一消息尤其令市场惊慌。中国的石油需求一直受到政府补贴的提振。改革这一做法意味着中国这个增长最快的石油消费大国将重视能源效率，而不久前，世界头号用油大国美国刚刚选出了一位有同样主张的总统。
Beijing's decision announced Friday to link domestic fuel prices more closely to international markets is particularly alarming. Subsidies have boosted Chinese demand. Reforming them suggests China, the fastest-growing oil consumer, is getting serious on energy efficiency just as America, the biggest oil consumer, has elected a president pushing the same agenda.
沙特需要让全世界尽量长时期的离不开石油，因此，让油价有一段时间的低价位并非坏事。还有一个好处是，低油价还将对伊朗和俄罗斯构成挑战。它们也需要更高的油价来平衡膨胀的预算。
Saudi Arabia needs to keep the world addicted to oil as long as possible, so giving it a breather with lower oil prices isn't a bad thing. As a bonus, this also will challenge Iran and Russia, both of which need much higher oil prices to balance swollen budgets.
因此，沙特近期可以有机会排挤它在欧佩克的最大对手和欧佩克之外的主要竞争者。
So Saudi Arabia has a near term chance to squeeze its biggest regional rival and its main non-OPEC competitor.
其他欧佩克成员国不会甘心于这种情况。许多成员国可能更喜欢突破配额，从而给油价进一步加压。
Other OPEC members won't take this lying down. Many will likely prefer to bust quotas, pressuring prices further.
对看涨油价的人来说，2009年肯定跟中国古代算学一样简单。
For oil bulls, 2009 promises to be as easy as Chinese algebra.
Liam Denning
没有评论:
发表评论