Five Questions on the Auto Bailout
福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)和通用汽车(General Motors)的投资者这下满意了。周一，美国政府似乎将为美国汽车三巨头提供150亿美元的短期融资，足以帮助它们维持到明年3月份。到时它们可能就会想出一些办法，或是能够偿还这150亿美元了。
Investors in Ford Motor Co. and General Motors, are, for today, satiated. The federal government seems set to provide $15 billion in short-term funds for the three major U.S. auto makers, enough of a salve to carry them through March, when they will presumably have figured something out, or give back the $15 billion (yeah, right).
通用汽车股价周一上涨18%至4.80美元；福特上涨65美分至3.37美元，不过后者的市值依然较高，由于2006年底决定在情况恶化前抵押所有资产，以改善财务状况，福特的现状在两家公司中也更好些。
Shares of General Motors rose 18% on the day to $4.80 a share, while Ford gained 65 cents to $3.37 a share, though the latter still has the larger market capitalization and is generally seen as the stronger of the two because of its decision to shore up financing in late 2006 by pledging all of its assets before the roof caved in.
这条消息令MarketBeat针对整个计划提出了几个问题，当然这个计划还需得到国会的批准。以下是MarketBeat认为的最为迫切的几个问题：
The news elicits a few questions about this whole thing that MarketBeat sought to put out there in the wake of this plan, which of course has still not been agreed upon by Congress. Here's a few of the pressing issues on MarketBeat's mind:
1.这其中的要点到底是什么？很简单。除非今后几个月能出现奇迹，有买家收购通用汽车或克莱斯勒(Chrysler)（两家公司相互购买不在此列），否则这两家公司就可能走向破产。应该说，短期的融资使它们能够按轻重缓急解决一些问题。它可以让这些公司与其债权人、工会和国会合作，拿出一套减少负债、削减部分残余的医疗成本，以及获得一些让步的方案，以达成某种事先协商好的预处理破产方案，而不是完全交由破产程序解决。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的分析师写道，我们预计所有获得融资的汽车厂家都将获得60-90天的时间谈判……得出一个具有长期财务可行性的计划。
1. What's the point of all this, exactly? Simple. Unless some sort of miracle buyer emerges in the next few months for GM or Chrysler (and buying each other does not count), those two companies are likely headed for bankruptcy. Short-term funding allows them to get their ducks in order, so to speak. It allows the companies to work with their creditors, the unions and Congress to figure out a way to reduce their debt, lop off some of the residual health-care costs and get some concessions in order to enter some kind of pre-packaged bankruptcy that's agreed-upon beforehand, instead of leaving the whole thing to the mercy of Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings. 'We expect any automaker that receives funding to be given 60-90 days to negotiate … a plan for long term financial viability,' write analysts at Deutsche Bank.
2. 那么这是否意味着所有人3月份之前都是在做无用功呢？从某种程度上说是这样。新一届政府将在1月20日上任，而制定长期计划的政治意愿目前看来似乎还不存在。这就是说，如果没有这样的计划，通用和克莱斯勒可能不会生存到明年3月份。McGinn Investment Management总裁伯尼?麦克金(Bernie McGinn)说，通用汽车这帮家伙曾谈论今年破产的事。他持有福特汽车的股票。
2. So does that mean everyone is sort of just punting this down the road until March? Sort of. A new presidential administration comes into office on Jan. 20, and the political will to put together a long-standing plan does not seem to exist now. That said, without this, GM and Chrysler might not survive until March. 'These guys at GM were talking about going bankrupt this year,' says Bernie McGinn, president of McGinn Investment Management, who owns shares of Ford.
3. 那么该公司债券的持有者将得到什么？很难说。KDP Investment Advisors固定收益产品分析师基普?彭尼曼(Kip Penniman)上周列出了三种选择，对这些高级无担保债券的估值为票面价值的18%至43%。周一，2033年到期的这些债券的交易价约为面值的 19%至20%，表明投资者认为通用汽车有可能破产。彭尼曼也认为，在由全美汽车工人联合会(United Auto Workers)和放贷机构承受痛苦的情况下，债券持有者预计将收回面值的43%左右，同时股份进一步增加。UAW也在寻求获得股份。
3. So what will the holders of the company's debt get? It's hard to say. Kip Penniman, fixed-income analyst at KDP Investment Advisors, last week laid out three options that would value the senior unsecured debt holders at anywhere from 18 cents to 43 cents on the dollar. Monday, those bonds, due in 2033, were trading 19 to 20 cents on the dollar, suggesting investors are still valuing this as a likely bankruptcy candidate. Mr. Penniman also believes that in a situation where the United Auto Workers union and the lenders share the pain, the bondholders would get about 43 cents on the dollar along with 'further upside in the form of equity.' The UAW is also seeking an equity stake as well.
4. 那么，这些股份价值几何呢？最终有可能一文不值。巨量的债券以及政府扮演的汽车厂家新放贷者的额外角色，这都令股东处于危险的境地。买进这些汽车厂家的股票───尤其是通用汽车，因为福特汽车可能不会接受联邦资金──要么是基于短期交易机会，要么就是耐心持有，寄希望于下一轮周期的到来。Lear Corp.、Visteon, Corp.和American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings等汽车零部件类股周一都强劲上扬，表明投资者认为该行业将会复苏。福特汽车目前的市值约为65亿美元，是通用汽车的两倍以上，麦克金说，他看不到福特汽车无法生存的理由。他说，在三巨头中，福特汽车显然是情况最好的，有能力在这场风暴中生存最长的时间。
4. Ok, so what's the equity stake worth? It could be nothing, ultimately. The sheer volume of debt, and the government's additional role as a new lender to the auto makers, puts the stockholders in a precarious position. A bet on these shares ─ GM in particular, as Ford may not take the federal money ─ is either a short-term trade or one built for those with the patience (and perhaps lifespan) of Treebeard. Shares of the auto-parts makers, such as Lear Corp., Visteon, Corp. and American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, were solidly higher Monday, suggesting that investors are betting that the industry will survive. Ford's current market cap is about $6.5 billion, more than double that of GM, and Mr. McGinn says he does not see how Ford doesn't survive. 'They, clearly, of the three, are the strongest and have the ability to weather the storm the longest,' he says.
5.通用汽车首席执行长瓦格纳(Rick Wagoner)会下台吗？非常可能。与其他两位上任时间较短的首席执行长不同，瓦格纳自2000年以来一直担任通用汽车的首席执行长。该公司股价自2000年6月他上任以来已经下跌了93%。市场份额持续下降，通用一直难以跟上许多消费者喜好的变化，比如最近对节油型轿车的追捧。通用汽车多年来面临困难局面，却一直未能有上佳表现。咨询机构Liberum Research主管理查德?杰克维茨(Richard Jacowitz)说，也许你会觉得他只是一个牺牲品，但我的确认为他们需要一个新的开端。
5. Will GM CEO Rick Wagoner walk the plank? Most likely. Unlike the other two CEOs, who have been at the job for a shorter period of time, Mr. Wagoner has been CEO since 2000. The company's stock has lost 93% of its value since the beginning of June 2000, the month he took that position. Market share has declined and the company is scrambling to catch up to the preferences of many consumers, now looking for more fuel-efficient vehicles. While there are arguments for continuity at a difficult time, GM has faced difficult times for several years and has not distinguished itself. 'Maybe you can perceive of this as a sacrificial lamb, but I do believe they need a new beginning,' says Richard Jacowitz, director of consultancy Liberum Research.
David Gaffen
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