Oil Prices Meet Headwind
随着需求的下降，世界石油出口大国迫切要求降低产量来提振油价，沙特阿拉伯提出每桶75美元的油价才是现在的“合理价格”。不过，在眼下的经济低迷期，石油输出国组织(OPEC，简称：欧佩克)可能难以让油价保持在任何事先设定的水平。
As the world's big oil exporters struggle to trim production enough to boost prices as demand plummets, Saudi Arabia has contended that $75 now represents a 'fair price' for a barrel of oil. But OPEC may struggle to keep prices at any set level amid the current economic headwinds.
在上周末开罗召开的会议上，欧佩克部长讨论了是否要在12月中旬的阿尔及利亚例会上再度大幅减产。如果兑现，这将成为该组织4个月中的第三次减产。
Meeting in Cairo over the weekend, ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries debated whether to make another deep output cut -- the group's third in four months -- when they meet in formal session in Algeria in mid-December.
欧佩克13个成员国未能完全兑现此前作出的减少出口的承诺，原因是伊朗和委内瑞拉等国试图在大宗商品价格下挫、美国等主要市场需求下滑之际保持源源不断的收入。原油价格如今已经较夏季的高点下挫了逾60%，纽约商交所上周五原油结算价为每桶54.43美元。目前全球石油需求量约为每日8,600万桶，欧佩克满足了其中的四成多。
The cartel's 13 members, which supply more than 40% of daily world oil demand of about 86 million barrels a day, are already falling behind earlier pledges to trim exports as countries such as Iran and Venezuela try to keep revenue flowing amid a crash in commodity prices and demand in key markets like the U.S. The price of crude oil has fallen more than 60% since its summer high, closing Friday at $54.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
欧佩克成员国10月份同意将石油日产量降低150万桶，但在具体实施上却一直行动迟缓。该组织秘书长巴德里(Abdalla Salem El-Badri)向记者表示，欧佩克成员国目前为止仅将石油日产量降低了85万-120万桶。
OPEC members have been slow to comply with the production cut of 1.5 million barrels a day agreed to in October. The group's secretary general, Abdalla Salem El-Badri, told reporters that members had so far managed to remove only 850,000 to 1.2 million barrels a day from world oil markets.
欧佩克的缺乏纪律性是导致该组织最大产油国沙特没有在开罗会议上敦促再度减产的原因之一，尽管沙特石油大臣纳依米(Ali Naimi)称油价应该处于比当前价格约高20美元的水平。纳依米的话代表沙特少见地一改以往做法──长久以来沙特一直避免让自己看起来有试图设定油价的嫌疑。沙特国王阿卜杜拉(Abdullah)在上周六接受一家科威特报纸采访时也称油价应该在每桶75美元的水平。
The group's lack of discipline was one reason Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, didn't push for another output cut in Cairo, even though the Saudi oil minister, Ali Naimi, argued that oil prices should be around $20 a barrel higher than they are now. Mr. Naimi's remarks represented an unusual departure for Saudi Arabia, which has long avoided the appearance of trying to set the price of oil. Saudi King Abdullah also used the $75-a-barrel price tag in an interview on Saturday with a Kuwaiti newspaper.
其他欧佩克部长也很快对每桶75美元的价格表示支持，他们称当前的油价太低，不足以维持高成本地区所需的投资。
Other OPEC ministers quickly seized on the $75 target, saying that current prices were too low to sustain needed investments in higher-cost areas.
在管理石油供应以将油价保持在既定区间方面，欧佩克的表现乏善可陈。为了保护对所有欧佩克成员国都至关重要的石油收入而阳奉阴违，这在欧佩克48年历史中一直是个核心话题。眼下，跟上需求下滑的步伐可能尤为困难。全球石油需求今年看起来将出现25年来的首次萎缩，2009年预计还会进一步下滑。
OPEC has a spotty record when it comes to managing oil supplies to maintain a set price band. Lack of compliance with production cuts, driven by a jealous protection of oil revenue that are pivotal to all OPEC governments, has been a core theme throughout OPEC's 48-year history. This time around, keeping up with falling demand may prove particularly tough. Global oil demand looks set to contract this year for the first time in 25 years, with more declines expected in 2009.
一位欧佩克代表和一位熟悉沙特石油生产政策的人士均称，沙特在开罗会议上不愿支持再度减产，原因之一是沙特认为欧佩克第二大产油国伊朗以及委内瑞拉为保持自身的石油收入，减产幅度不及它们宣称的那么大。相对其他欧佩克成员国来说，伊朗和委内瑞拉是因每桶50美元的油价而遭受最大冲击的国家，因为其财政预算和支出都依赖于较高的石油价格。
An OPEC delegate and a person familiar with Saudi production policy both said the kingdom's reluctance to back a new output cut in Cairo was driven in part by the Saudis' belief that Iran, OPEC's second-biggest producer, and Venezuela are cutting output by less than they claim in order to preserve their own oil revenue. Both nations stand to suffer the most from sustained $50 oil prices relative to other OPEC members, as their budgets and spending are based on higher oil prices.
如以前曾经发生的几次一样，欧佩克目前正呼吁非欧佩克石油出口大国帮助降低供应量，以便遏制油价的暴跌。俄罗斯已经表示希望帮助欧佩克支撑油价，不过随着该国石油生产持续下滑，其石油产量已经处于重压之下。墨西哥和挪威等其他非欧佩克石油出口大国看起来也不太可能在眼下石油收入下滑之际限制出口。墨西哥的产量因该国最大油田Cantarell的减产而下滑。
As it has several times in the past, OPEC is now calling on other big exporters outside the cartel to help curtail supply to stem the crash in prices. Russia has suggested it wants to help OPEC buttress prices, but its output is already under strain as Russian production continues to fall. The other big non-OPEC exporters, Mexico and Norway, also seem unlikely to rein in exports at a time of dropping oil revenue. Mexico's production is falling on a decline in its biggest field, Cantarell.
在这样的背景之下，欧佩克将于12月17日在阿尔及利亚港口城市奥兰召开例会，此次会议可能成为该组织多年来关系最重大的会议。沙特将仔细寻找其他欧佩克成员国遵循此前减产协议的迹象。
All this sets the stage for OPEC's next formal session on Dec. 17 in the Algerian port city of Oran, in what could be the group's most momentous meeting in years. Saudi Arabia will be looking most intently for signs that other OPEC members are complying with earlier agreements to trim supply.
不过，同样重要的还有预示2009年将至时世界经济低迷程度的一系列数据。欧佩克9月和10月已经同意将日产量降低200万桶，但如果美国、欧洲和亚洲国家的需求继续走软的话，未来几个月中欧佩克可能需要更大幅度的减产。
But just as important will be the latest raft of data on how sick the world's economy looks going into 2009. Having agreed to trim two million barrels a day at its last two sessions in September and October, OPEC may need to cut back far more deeply in the months ahead if demand in the U.S., Europe and Asia continues to weaken.
Spencer Swartz / Neil King Jr.
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