丰田新总裁继承祖业 回归本源应对危机

A Scion Drives Toyota Back To Basics

丰田新总裁继承祖业 回归本源应对危机

Toyota Motor Corp.'s incoming president, Akio Toyoda, has a sobering message for the giant company founded by his grandfather: It has gotten too fancy for its own good.

对自己祖父创建的丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor)，丰田章男(Akio Toyoda)这位公司即将上任的总裁有着冷静的认识：丰田汽车太过自负了。

On Monday, three top executives who helped lead Toyota the past four years -- including Mitsuo Kinoshita, one of the primary architects of the company's global expansion -- announced their retirement. The departures clear the way for Mr. Toyoda's planned makeover of the world's biggest auto maker.

本周一，全球最大汽车厂商丰田汽车的三位高管宣布退休。他们曾在过去四年领导丰田汽车，其中包括该公司全球扩张的主要规划者之一木下光男(Mitsuo Kinoshita)。他们的离职为丰田章男按计划改造这家世界最大汽车公司铺平了道路。

He is expected to focus, most of all, on abandoning kakushin, or 'revolutionary change,' current president Katsuaki Watanabe's term for changing the way Toyota designed its cars and factories. It spawned technological advances, but led to cars that were often costlier to produce.

丰田章男可能会率先集中精力摒弃现任总裁渡边捷昭(Katsuaki Watanabe)带来的“革命性变革”，即改变丰田汽车设计汽车和工厂的方式。这一变革带来了技术进步，但却常常推高了丰田汽车的生产成本。

The 52-year-old Mr. Toyoda is also working to fix a pricing strategy that put the company at odds with some U.S. dealers, who felt its cars were getting too expensive, according to people familiar with the situation.

据知情人士透露，现年52岁的丰田章男还在努力应对导致公司和一些美国经销商产生分歧的定价策略；经销商认为丰田汽车定价过于昂贵。

Auto makers world-wide are in pain, and Toyota is much stronger than rivals such as General Motors Corp., which is flirting with a bankruptcy filing. Still, Toyota is expecting its first annual net loss in 59 years.

全球汽车厂商现在的日子都不好过，丰田汽车要比通用汽车(General Motors)等竞争对手财力雄厚得多。通用汽车目前正挣扎在破产边缘。不过，丰田汽车预计当前财年将出现59年来的首个年度净亏损。

Mr. Toyoda may shutter factories in North America and Japan, where Toyota bulked up in recent years and is now stuck with too much manufacturing capacity. It might also be faced with its first layoffs in Japan since 1950, when 3,000 workers were let go.

丰田章男可能会关闭公司在北美和日本的工厂，丰田汽车近年来在这两个市场迅速增长，目前已经拥有太多的制造产能。丰田汽车可能还会自1950年以来首次在日本裁员，当年有3,000名工人被迫失业。

Mr. Toyoda blames more than the recession, according to people familiar with the matter. He is sending the message that his predecessors worsened the problem by straying from core ideas of thrift and efficiency.

据知情人士透露，丰田章男没有将责任都推给经济衰退。从他所传递出的信息可以看出，丰田章男认为他的前任偏离了节俭和效率的核心理念，从而加重了公司的问题。

Among other things, there's a move away from technologically sophisticated in-car gizmos like a solar-powered cooling system designed for the new Prius. In addition, an expensive new assembly-line technique of dipping car bodies into a vat of paint and swirling them around -- nicknamed shabu shabu, after a popular Japanese hotpot dish -- is under the microscope.

其他方面，丰田章男可能会摒弃那些技术复杂的车内小革新，例如为新款普瑞斯(Prius)设计的太阳能冷却系统。此外，丰田汽车还将仔细评估一项成本高昂的新组装线技术，这项技术将车体浸入一个染料桶，然后进行旋转上色。

Toyota said in a statement that it feels its management decisions made in the past were appropriate for their time. In a statement signed by Messrs. Watanabe, Kinoshita and Toyoda, the company declined to respond to specific questions. It said the company felt some questions didn't reflect the actual situation, but declined to be specific.

丰田汽车发表声明称，公司认为管理层过去做出的决定符合当时的时代需求。在这份由渡边捷昭、木下光男和丰田章男共同署名的声明中，丰田汽车拒绝回答具体质疑。声明称，公司认为某些质疑没有反映实际状况，但却拒绝指出是哪些质疑。

Mr. Toyoda is the first member of Toyota's founding family to take the helm in 14 years.

丰田章男是14年来首位执掌公司的丰田家族成员。

'I think Toyota probably over-expanded a little bit in order to compete with the American auto makers,' said his father, Shoichiro Toyoda, 83, who himself was the auto maker's president during the 1980s. 'There are a lot of things that we have to review.'

丰田章男的父亲、83岁的豊田章一郎(Shoichiro Toyoda)说，我认为丰田汽车为了与美国汽车厂商竞争可能有点过度扩张了。公司有很多方面需要进行评估。豊田章一郎曾在上世纪八十年代出任公司总裁。

The younger Mr. Toyoda's appointment as president is pending shareholder approval in June. Mr. Watanabe, whose appointment as vice chairman was announced along with Mr. Toyoda's promotion, had been president since June 2005.

丰田章男出任公司总裁的任命还有待今年6月份股东大会批准。在宣布丰田章男获得晋升的同时，原总裁渡边捷昭被任命为公司副董事长；渡边捷昭自2005年6月起担任公司总裁，。

The shakeup reflects the sense of crisis within Toyota as it navigates one of the toughest periods in its 70-year history. For the past decade, it expanded at breakneck pace. Under Mr. Watanabe, 67, Toyota posted record net profit 1.72 trillion yen in the ended March 2008. Last year it unseated rival GM as the world's biggest auto maker in terms of unit sales.

这一管理层调整反映出了丰田汽车内部的危机感，这家公司正面临着70年历史上最为艰难的时期。过去十年，丰田汽车以危险的速度实现了迅猛扩张。在今年67岁的渡边捷昭领导下，丰田汽车在截至2008年3月的财年实现了创纪录的1.72万亿日圆净利润。去年丰田汽车又超过了通用汽车，成为全球销量最大的汽车厂商。

Now, it is forecasting a 350 billion yen net loss for the current fiscal year, ending March 31. And not only are sales plummeting, but earnings are getting further hurt by the strong yen, which means money earned abroad isn't worth as much when converted into Japan's currency.

但如今，丰田汽车预计在截至3月31日的当前财年将出现3,500亿日圆的净亏损。不只是销量锐减，公司的收益也受到日圆走强的进一步打击，日圆升值意味着丰田汽车的海外收益兑换成日圆时会缩水。

In a recent sign of the distress, at a meeting late last year Mr. Watanabe appealed to mid-level managers to 'share the pain' -- code for a salary cut -- then made them wince by asking them to also consider buying a new car to help shore up sales, according to people who attended the meeting.

近期反映丰田汽车困境的一个迹象是，据知情人士透露，渡边捷昭在去年年底的一次会议上要求中层管理人士“共度难关”（即降薪），随后又要求他们考虑购买公司一辆新车以帮助提振销量。

An unprecedented number of unsold cars in Japan has forced Toyota to stockpile them in the parking lots of Fuji Speedway, a company-owned track near Mount Fuji.

由于公司在日本的库存车辆达到前所未有的数量，丰田汽车不得不动用旗下富士赛车场(Fuji Speedway)的停车场来存放汽车。

Koichi Shimokawa, a professor of business administration at Tokai Gakuin University in Nagoya, says Toyota was so focused on becoming the world's largest auto maker that it failed to cut production quickly enough last year as economic crisis struck the U.S., its largest market.

名古屋东海学院大学(Tokai Gakuin University)企业管理教授Koichi Shimokawa说，丰田汽车如此专注于成为全球头号汽车厂商，以致于去年经济危机冲击美国市场的时候，丰田汽车未能及时削减产量。美国是丰田汽车最大的市场。

'Toyota was overconfident in its competitiveness and they just kept pressing the accelerator,' he says.

他表示，丰田汽车过于相信其竞争力，一直在狂踩油门。

Until late last year, it appeared to be a horse race for the presidency between Mr. Toyoda and Mr. Kinoshita, 63, the right-hand man to Mr. Watanabe, the current president.

直到去年年底，丰田章男和木下光男在总裁的竞争中还难分高下。现年63岁的木下光男是丰田现任总裁渡边捷昭的得力助手。

As recently as late last year, when Toyota's powerful elders huddled to discuss who should succeed Mr. Watanabe at the end of his two-year term, some worried Akio Toyoda was too young. Others felt that a large, publicly traded company like Toyota shouldn't pick a family member for the top job, even though Mr. Toyoda is a veteran who oversaw rapid growth in China, among other things.

就在去年年底时，丰田企业元老们还在为谁该在渡边捷昭两年任期结束后接任总裁而吵做一团，有人担心丰田章男太年轻了。还有人认为向丰田这样一家大型上市公司不该让“本家人”来担任最高职位，即便丰田章男也算得上是公司的老员工了，曾见证了中国汽车市场的迅猛增长。

A turning point came in a meeting in November at the company's global headquarters in Toyota City. Akio's father, Shoichiro Toyoda, made a subtle remark to the assembled group, according to people familiar with the matter. 'Why are all the key decisions these days made by Watanabe-kun and Kinoshita-kun?' the elder Mr. Toyoda said, using a standard honorific for the two men.

事情的转机出现在11月于公司总部丰田市召开的一次会议。据知情人士说，丰田章男的父亲丰田章一郎对与会者说了一句微妙的话：“为何这些日子来所有的关键决策都是由渡边君和木下君作出的？”他在话中使用了标准的敬称。

According to those people, Shoichiro Toyoda seemed annoyed that Messrs. Watanabe and Kinoshita had broken with Toyota protocol last year by singlehandedly deciding what vehicles would be built at a factory under construction in Mississippi. They had switched to the Prius, a gasoline-electric hybrid, from the Highlander, a sport-utility vehicle, without first consulting other key executives.

据知情人士透露，令丰田章一郎生气的是，渡边捷昭和木下光男2007年推翻了公司原来的安排，自行决定了密西西比州一家在建汽车厂要投产的车型。他们事先未与其他高管商议，便将原计划在该厂生产的“汉兰达”(Highlander)运动型多用途车(SUV)换成了普锐斯(PRIUS)混合动力汽车。

The language was subdued. But the comment, along with additional criticisms from other executives in other meetings, ultimately tipped the scale in Akio Toyoda's favor, the people say.

知情人士称，丰田章一郎的用语虽然克制，但他的这番话，以及公司别的高管在其他会议上的批评最终使丰田章男人气上升。

Shoichiro Toyoda says he doesn't recall the meeting. Toyota said in its statement that it decided a new management team was needed to tackle the tough situation it faces.

丰田章一郎表示他记不起来这次会议了。而丰田公司在声明中称，公司认为，需要一个新的管理团队来应对当前的艰难局面。

It's not clear if a back-to-basics approach will be enough to revive growth at the sprawling firm, particularly amid the weakening global economy.

现在还说不准丰田汽车靠回归本源的办法是否足以重振这家庞大的企业，特别是在全球经济疲软的情况下。

Other auto makers have promoted founding-family members, with limited success. Ford Motor Co.'s own founding-family scion, Bill Ford, took over from Jacques Nasser in 2001. But Ford failed to launch popular models, while sales of its profitable SUVs wilted as gasoline prices rose. In 2006, Mr. Ford handed over the CEO position to a nonfamily executive, Alan Mulally, a former Boeing executive, who is still struggling to right the ship.

其他曾将创始家族成员推为掌门人的汽车制造商只取得了有限成功。例如来自福特汽车公司(Ford Motor Co.)创始家族的比尔?福特，从他2001年自雅克?纳赛尔(Jacques Nasser)手中接过大权后，福特就一直拿不出热卖车型，有利可图的SUV汽车也因为汽油价格高企而销量萎缩。2006年，比尔?福特将首席执行长一职交给非家族出身的穆拉利(Alan Mulally)，此人直到现在还在收拾福特汽车的烂摊子。

Asked whether the family name influenced the choice of top executive, Shoichiro Toyoda said: 'We never know who is going to be president. The current president made the best decision about who is appropriate for the next president, and it just happened to be my son.' The family controls roughly 2% of Toyota stock.

当被问及丰田章男拥有的家族姓氏是否帮他赢得了公司总裁之职时，丰田章一郎称，“我们从来不会事先知道由谁担任总裁。现任总裁就下任总裁人选作出了最佳决定，只不过此人恰好是我的儿子。”丰田家族拥有丰田汽车大约2%的股权。

Akio Toyoda himself, as one of five executive vice-presidents, isn't entirely free of blame for the company's recent woes. Since June 2007, he has overseen the Japanese market, where sales and market share continue to fall.

作为原来的五位执行副总裁之一，丰田章男对公司目前的问题也不是完全没有责任。他从2007年6月开始负责日本市场，丰田汽车在国内的销量和市场份额一直在下滑。

Toyota now aims to generate 'reasonable profits' even if is global sales (excluding sales of its two main affiliates, car maker Daihatsu and truck company Hino) slump to seven million, down from an all-time high of 8.4 million it sold in 2007. Toyota currently has capacity to produce about 9.7 million vehicles, according to an estimate by consulting firm CSM Worldwide.

丰田汽车眼下的目标是创造“合理利润”，即便是在其全球销量（不包括大发和日野这两家主要的关联厂商）由2007年创纪录的840万辆锐减至700万辆之际。据咨询公司CSM Worldwide的估计，丰田目前拥有年产汽车约970万辆的能力。

Akio Toyoda has long preached a traditional Toyota practice called genchi genbutsu, a leadership maxim that boils down to get out of your office and visit the source of the problem. For the past year, Mr. Toyoda has been practicing genchi genbutsu to quietly collect evidence that the company had strayed, according to people familiar with the situation.

长期以来，丰田章男一直信奉被称为“现地现物”的公司座右铭，即领导要走出办公室，对存在的问题进行实地考察。据知情人士称，在这条座右铭的指引下，过去一年来，丰田章男一直在默默搜集显示公司已迷失方向的证据。

They say he was particularly concerned that Messrs. Watanabe and Kinoshita placed strong emphasis on achieving two trillion yen in annual operating profit, a level it passed in the year ended March 2007.

知情人士称，令丰田章男特别担心的是，渡边捷昭和木下光男太过强调实现年经营利润2万亿日圆的目标。丰田汽车在截至2007年3月的财年中曾达到过这一水平。

Driven by that profit objective, Toyota executives reasoned American consumers would be willing to pay a premium for a Toyota -- a change from a long-held strategy of pricing cars at a value. Two years ago, Toyota started raising prices on an array of models including the redesigned Corolla, one of its most prominent vehicles, launched in early 2008.

在盈利目标的驱动下，丰田管理层设想美国消费者会愿意为丰田车付出高价，这对于丰田汽车长期以来奉行的按质定价战略是一个转变。两年前，丰田开始提高一系列车型的售价，当中包括其最杰出的车型这一──2008年初面市的新版卡罗拉(Corolla)。

Toyota's U.S. sales arm had tried to price the Corolla about $1,000 to $1,500 above what its U.S. dealers thought people would pay for a basic family car, according to U.S. dealers. Not surprisingly, sales were weak. Toyota sold 21,000 Corollas in February 2008 down 25% from a year earlier.

据美国的经销商称，丰田的美国销售部门将卡罗拉的价格定在比其美国经销商认为人们能够接受的基本家庭用车价格高出约1,000至1,500美元的水平。因此，销售疲软也就不足为奇了。丰田在2008年2月共售出21,000辆卡罗拉，比上年同期下降了25%。

When Mr. Toyoda got wind of the slow Corolla sales, he flew to the U.S. to meet with dealers and investigate for himself.

丰田章男听到卡罗拉销售缓慢的风声后，当即飞往美国，与经销商开会商讨对策，并亲自进行调查。

Cliff Cummings, a veteran southern California dealer, warned Mr. Toyoda over a steak dinner with a dozen other dealers last March that premium pricing was the wrong way to go. Toyota had built an image of sturdy affordability, 'but now they were wrecking it,' Mr. Cummings says he told Mr. Toyoda.

南加州资深经销商卡明斯(Cliff Cummings)在去年3月有十几位经销商参加的一个牛排晚餐上警告丰田章男说，高定价是一条错误的道路。卡明斯说他告诉丰田章男，丰田汽车价格公道的形象已经深入人心，而它现在却在自己破坏这一形像。

Based on subsequent conversations with the younger Mr. Toyoda and other executives, Mr. Cummings says he expects the company to overhaul its pricing strategy.

卡明斯在随后与丰田章男和其他丰田高管交谈后预计，丰田汽车将调整定价策略。

The company is also reining in its engineers, who have been designing new features that occasionally appear to be out of character with the company's utilitarian roots.

丰田也在对其工程师进行约束，这些人设计的新功能偶尔会脱离该公司一贯坚持的实用路线。

For example, the new Prius, launching this year, has an option for a solar-powered ventilation system designed to keep the interior cool when parked. Gizmos like these helped lift the car's retail price to an estimated $28,000, according to analysts, compared with the $22,000 currently.

比如，今年推出的新款普锐斯就有一个太阳能排风系统选项，这个系统可以在停车熄火后保持车内凉爽。分析师说，这类发明让这款车的零售价可能达到28,000美元，大大高于目前的22,000美元。

'Frankly, that does worry me,' says Earl Stewart, one of the top Prius dealers in the U.S., based in North Palm Beach, Fla., He anticipates stiff competition from Honda's new low-priced hybrid, Insight.

美国最大的普锐斯经销商之一斯图尔特(Earl Stewart)说，“坦率地讲，这的确令我头痛。他预计普锐斯将面临来自本田汽车(Honda)新款低价混合动力车Insight的激烈竞争。

'I am already drastically discounting my Priuses to maintain my sales rate,' Mr. Stewart says.

斯图尔特说，我已经对普锐斯加大打折力度，以维持销量。

Then there's the shabu shabu paint system. Toyota's manufacturing division is one of the company's proudest operations, having developed a highly efficient 'lean manufacturing' philosophy that has been emulated over the years by everyone from GM and Hewlett-Packard to hospitals and supermarkets seeking greater efficiency.

再就是丰田“日式涮涮锅”风格的喷漆系统。丰田的生产部门是公司最引以为傲的业务，它制订的高效“精益生产”理念多年来已为众多希望提高效率的公司所效仿，其中既有通用汽车和惠普(Hewlett-Packard)这样的大公司，也包括医院和超市。

Mr. Watanabe, the current president, had backed the new technology as he encouraged his engineers to radically shorten the painting process. To replace the traditional system of slowly dragging a car through a 115-foot-long bath of anticorrosion undercoating, Toyota engineers came up with a new process in which a car body gets picked up by a robot arm, then swished around in a pool of paint, cutting the length of the line. Engineers compare it to shabu-shabu, which involves picking up slices of meat and swishing it around in a hotpot to cook it.

现任总裁渡边捷昭一直支持技术创新，他鼓励手下的工程师大胆缩短喷漆过程。丰田的工程师决定打破传统，不再慢慢拖动汽车通过一个115英尺长的防腐底漆喷涂系统，而是由机器人手臂将车身抬起，然后快速在一个油漆池中浸一下，这就缩短了喷漆线的长度。工程师将它比作涮锅，同夹起一片肉迅速在火锅中涮一下类似。

However, the new system costs roughly four times as much to set up as the traditional process, while producing what Mr. Toyoda felt were minimal improvements in the quality of the paint job and its efficiency, according to people familiar with the situation

不过，知情人士称，新系统的成本大约是传统工艺的4倍，同时丰田章男认为其在喷漆质量和效率上的改进微不足道。

Also likely to be axed: A new 'ecological plastic' that emits less carbon dioxide over the course of its life than more traditional alternatives, but which is costlier to produce.

同样可能受到抛弃的还有：一种在使用过程中可比传统替代品排出更少二氧化碳的新型“生态塑料”，但它的生产成本过于昂贵。

Another tough area Mr. Toyoda must tackle promptly is the excess manufacturing capacity in Japan. In the late 1990s, when a strong yen made Japan a costly place to make cars, Toyota slashed capacity at home and added production overseas.

丰田章男必须尽快解决的另一个难题是公司在日本的过剩产能。90年代末，日圆走强提高了日本的汽车生产成本，丰田开始削减国内产能，增加了在海外的产量。

But the yen reversed its direction, weakening to as low as 120 to the dollar between 2005 to 2007. Toyota decided to take advantage and do more of its manufacturing at home, since a weak yen has the effect of making exports more profitable. By 2007, it was producing 4.23 million vehicles in Japan -- a million more than it made just eight years before.

但日圆走势此后出现了逆转，在2005年至2007年期间走软至最低120日圆兑1美元。丰田决定利用这点，增加在国内的生产，因为日圆疲软可以让出口更为有利可图。到2007年，丰田在国内的产量高达423万辆，比8年前增加了100万辆。

That move was directly at odds with Toyota's long-held philosophy not to make long-term decisions on where to put factories, based on short-term currency-exchange rates, which can swing rapidly.

此举直接违背了丰田的长期理念，即不根据汇率的短期波动做出在哪里设厂的长期决策。

'We are not gods, we are not infallible,' says Shoichiro Toyoda, speaking of the company's management team. 'Sometimes even Tiger Woods misses a shot.'

丰田章一郎在谈到公司的管理团队时说，我们是人而不是神，并非十全十美。有时甚至老虎伍兹(Tiger Woods)也会失手。

Matthew Karnitschnig / Liam Pleven / Serena Ng

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090225/ffe121343.asp

中国汽车业海外并购雷声大雨点小

Stalled: The Great Chinese Car Industry Merger Binge

中国汽车业海外并购雷声大雨点小

To go by a spate of recent rumors and reports, China is on the verge of a slew of deal in the global auto industry. But beleaguered car companies in the U.S. and Europe ─ as well as their investors ─ might not want to hold their breath in anticipation of every purported deal that’s mentioned.

近期有关中国可能将在全球汽车业进行一系列并购交易的传言和报导沸沸扬扬。但陷入困境的欧美汽车公司以及它们的投资者美国和欧洲可能没有必要对提到的每个潜在交易抱太大希望。

The latest notion to surface, and to be quickly denied, is that Beijing Automotive Industry is interested in buying vehicle and engine manufacturing facilities from Chrysler. That follows reports last week that Sichuan Auto, a tiny car-and-bus maker in China’s southwest, was in talks to buy General Motors’ Hummer line ─ a report that was also quickly denied. And earlier this month, Geely Automobile Holdings denied that it was in talks to buy Ford Motor’s Volvo brand.

最新一个传闻（但迅速遭到否认）是北汽控股(Beijing Automotive Industry Holdings)有意收购克莱斯勒的汽车和发动机生产设施。此前，上周有报导说生产轿车和客车的小厂四川汽车工业集团(Sichuan Auto)正在同通用汽车(General Motors)商谈收购旗下悍马(Hummer)品牌的事宜──这条报导也迅速遭到否认。本月初，吉利汽车(Geely Automobile Holdings)也否认，它正在与福特汽车(Ford Motor)就收购其旗下沃尔沃(Volvo)品牌进行谈判。

Some of these deals, or others, may yet happen. With its recent flurry of multi-billion-dollar natural resources investments, China Inc. has shown what it can do when it decides to make a global move in a sector. Even if Geely wasn’t in talks with Ford as of early February, Chinese car makers are thought to be among the serious candidates to take over Volvo.

不过，这里提到或未提到的一些交易可能达成。随着近期价值数十亿美元的一系列对自然资源的投资，中国企业已表现出能够在认为有必要的情况下对全球某一领域采取行动。即使在2月初时吉利未同福特汽车进行谈判，但中国汽车制造商也被认为是收购沃尔沃的重要候选人。

At least one small deal has already happened, albeit not as expected. Chinese engine maker Weichai Power, which last week denied rumors it would acquire a GM plant in France, announced Monday that it had reached a deal (Chinese PDF) to pay 2.99 million euros for Moteurs Baudouin SA, a French diesel engine and gearbox maker.

至少一项规模较小的交易已经达成，尽管同外界的预期相比可能有所差距。中国发动机制造商潍柴动力(Weichai Power)周一宣布，已经达成以299万欧元收购法国柴油发动机和变速箱制造商Moteurs Baudouin SA的协议。上周，潍柴动力曾否认将收购通用汽车在法国一处工厂的传言。

Still, there are reasons to be skeptical of at least some of these supposed tie-ups. China’s government is pushing clean-energy technology in its auto industry, so it’s hard to see why Beijing would support the purchase of the gas-guzzling Hummer line, for instance. And China’s auto makers, though generally in better shape than their U.S. counterparts, are facing their own relatively tough times . Given the tremendous uncertainty of foreign car markets, they might prefer to focus on consolidating their positions at home.

不过，我们有理由对其中至少一些收购传言表示怀疑。比如，中国政府正在汽车业中推广清洁能源技术，因此很难理解北京有何理由支持购买耗油巨大的悍马生产线。而且，尽管状况要普遍好于美国同行，但中国的汽车制造商自己的日子也不好过。鉴于海外汽车市场巨大的不确定性，它们可能更愿意将重点放在巩固在国内的市场上面。

Jason Dean

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090225/chj145044.asp

通用汽车破产将造成史上最大信贷风险？

GM May Be Biggest Credit Risk Ever

通用汽车破产将造成史上最大信贷风险？

General Motors Corp. (GM) owes $76 billion. If the auto maker makes a conventional bankruptcy filing, it will have to borrow another $103 billion from the cash-strapped U.S. government and a syndicate of as many as 70 struggling lenders.

通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)的欠款高达760亿美元。如果这家汽车制造商按常规提出破产申请，它还要向资金短缺的美国政府和一个可能由70家正在困境中挣扎的放贷机构组成的银团再筹措1,030亿美元资金。

Is this the biggest credit risk of all time?

这会是历史上最大的信贷风险吗？

It is a truism in the world of bankruptcy that, no matter how risky the loan, nearly every company has always paid back the money that carried it through the bankruptcy process. (The one exception is Winstar Communications).

破产领域的一条真谛是，不管贷款的风险有多大，几乎每家公司都能通过破产程序偿还这笔资金。（唯一的例外是Winstar Communications）。

But a bankruptcy filing from GM would the largest ever. The company's recovery plan, submitted to the U.S. government last week, estimates that a two-year bankruptcy reorganization, including asset sales and a cleaned-up balance sheet, would cost $86 billion in government financing and up to another $17 billion from already-troubled banks and lenders.

但是，通用汽车的破产申请将是有史以来规模最大的。该公司上周提交给美国政府的复兴计划估计，为期两年的破产重组，包括资产出售和资产负债表的清理，将消耗860亿美元的政府资金，以及另外170亿美元已陷入困境的银行和放款人的资金。

Lenders - and the U.S. - are wary that they won't get paid back. Their fears have good reason. Any good loan is based on the security of the collateral, and GM's collateral base is eroding.

放款人以及美国政府担心他们的借款不会得到偿还。他们的恐惧有充分的理由。贷款安全是建立在抵押品安全的基础之上的，而通用汽车的抵押品基础正在削弱。

The auto maker has been struggling with disappointing financial results going back nearly five years, including a $10.6 billion one in 2005, a record loss of $38.7 billion in 2007, and it was on track for an even worse 2008, after posting $3.3 billion, $15.5 billion and $4.2 billion of losses in the first three quarters of the year.

这家汽车制造商过去五年的业绩一直令人失望，其中包括2005年亏损106亿美元，2007年创纪录的亏损387亿美元，2008年的情况可能更糟糕，前三个季度这家公司分别亏损了33亿、155亿和42亿美元。

And the balance sheet isn't even GM's biggest problem. While high costs caused it to burn through $6.9 billion of cash in the third quarter alone, GM has deeper operational problems to resolve. For too long it has depended on sport-utility vehicles, trucks and other gas-guzzlers, missing or ignoring a host of signals about the necessity for fuel-efficient vehicles. Standard & Poor's quantified GM's dipping market share in a report last week: 'Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac, Oldsmobile, Pontiac, Saturn and SAAB models accounted for 18.5% of total new U.S. car registrations (including imports) in 2008, versus 19.4% in 2007, 20.7% in 2006 and 22.6% in 2005.

资产负债表甚至不是通用汽车最大的问题。虽然高昂的成本导致通用汽车去年第三季度就消耗了69亿美元现金，但它也有更深层次的运作问题需要解决。通用汽车依赖运动型多用途车、卡车和其他高耗油车辆的时间太长，错失或无视燃油经济型车辆走红的诸多信号。标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)在上周的一份报告中提供了通用汽车市场份额不断下降的一组数据：雪佛兰、别克、凯迪拉克、奥兹莫比尔、庞蒂亚克、土星和萨博车型2008年占美国新车注册总量（包括进口车）的18.5%，而2007年、2006年和2005年的这个数字分别是19.4%、20.7%和22.6%。

Comparable figures for Chevrolet, GMC, Pontiac and Oldsmobile trucks were 26.6%, 27.6%, 27.1% and 28.5% in the respective years.'

雪佛兰、GMC、庞蒂亚克和奥兹莫比尔等卡车品牌在这四年的市场占有率分别为26.6%、27.6%、27.1%和28.5%。

It is a lot to ask of troubled U.S. banks that they lend to a company in such terrible shape. Consider that last week Roche Holding - which has a stellar investment-grade credit rating - raised $16 billion from investors through the sale of bonds specifically because it would have been too difficult to ask banks to provide the cash. The U.S. government has pledged more than $1 trillion of support to the U.S. banking system in order to free up credit, and even so rumors of bank nationalizations are swirling. For the government to ask that same banking industry to take on a highly questionable credit like GM would be like tying two stones together to see if they float.

要求陷入困境的美国银行业向处境如此糟糕的一家公司提供贷款并非小事。想想看，由于实在难以让银行提供资金，拥有稳定的投资级信用评级的罗氏公司(Roche Holding)上周尚且只能通过发售债券方式筹集了160亿美元资金。美国政府已承诺提供1万多亿美元支持美国的银行体系，以便释放信贷，即便如此银行国有化的传言仍甚嚣尘上。政府要求同样处境艰难的银行业向通用汽车之类的公司发放高风险贷款，就好像是将两块石头绑到一起看它们是否浮起来一样。

Then there is the capacity in the credit markets. Buyers of corporate debt have outdone themselves in the past two months, snapping up parts of a $22.5 billion bridge loan to Pfizer and that $16 billion from Roche to help finance its proposed purchase of the 44% of Genentech it doesn't already one. And bank lending has been on the rise since December, according to new numbers from the U.S. Treasury. But if GM debt is forced on the system, will that credit thaw continue? It is a question the U.S. government might want to consider?

不过信贷市场中并不缺少这种能力。过去两个月中企业债券的买家表现活跃，他们购买了辉瑞公司(Pfizer)225亿美元过渡性贷款中的一部分，以及罗氏160亿美元的债券。罗氏筹集这笔资金的目的是用于购买Genentech其余44%的股份。根据美国财政部最新公布的数据，银行贷款自去年12月份以来一直呈增长态势。但是，如果通用汽车的债务被迫在这一体系内解决，信贷解冻的状况还能延续吗？美国政府会考虑这一问题吗？

Heidi Moore

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090225/ffe091005.asp

通用汽车拟舍弃四大品牌以求自保

Era Ends as GM Snubs Saturn, Other Makes

通用汽车拟舍弃四大品牌以求自保

In turning its back on Saturn, Pontiac, Saab and Hummer, General Motors Corp. is abandoning a decades-old product strategy that once helped ensure its dominance.

通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)打算抛弃土星(Saturn)、庞蒂亚克(Pontiac)、萨博(Saab)和悍马(Hummer)品牌，也意味着在抛弃数十年来曾助其主导汽车市场的产品战略。

Left with just four key brands, GM will be a leaner, more focused car company. But it also risks a further slide in its already-shrunken market share as it loses customers who gravitated to the four orphaned lines. These buyers may have little interest in driving a Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac or GMC truck.

只留下四个骨干品牌后，通用汽车将成为一家更干练、业务更集中的汽车公司，但也要冒上让本已下滑的市场份额进一步缩水的风险。因为通用汽车将丧失这四个被弃品牌的忠实用户，他们可能对驾驶雪佛兰(Chevrolet)、别克(Buick)、凯迪拉克(Cadillac)和GMC汽车毫无兴趣。

'GM has to do what it has to do to survive,' Russell McBain, general manager of the Saturn dealership in Warren, Mich., said Wednesday. 'For years that has been to our detriment.'

密歇根州沃伦市的土星汽车经销店总经理拉塞尔?麦克白(Russell McBain)周三称，为了生存，通用汽车必须尽其所能。多年来一直受伤的是我们。

In 2008, Toyota Motor Corp. supplanted GM as the world's largest auto seller. GM now faces the possibility of another blow -- Toyota could move ahead of GM as soon as this year to become the largest auto seller in the U.S.

丰田汽车(Toyota Motor Corp.)的汽车销量在2008年超过通用汽车排名世界第一。而通用汽车有可能再经受一次打击--丰田有望最快在今年夺取全美汽车销量第一的位置。

In January, GM had market share of 19.5%. Without Saturn, Pontiac, Saab and Hummer, its share would have been 16.9% -- a point less than Toyota's.

今年1月份通用汽车的销售份额为19.5%，如果不计土星、庞蒂亚克、萨博和悍马四个品牌的销量，就只剩下16.9%，比丰田低1个百分点。

Some Saturn dealers now hope that instead of closing the brand, GM will spin it off as a separate company. A team of Saturn dealers is spending 60 days working with GM to evaluate the possibility. These dealers would sell vehicles under the Saturn brand made by other manufacturers, possibly from overseas.

一些土星汽车经销商希望通用汽车能剥离此品牌，作为一个独立的公司，而不是彻底关闭。目前有一批土星汽车的经销商在与通用汽车进行为期60天的可行性评估。这些经销商有可能将为别的制造商销售土星品牌汽车，有可能会是外国厂商。

'This is going to be somebody's low-cost entry to the world's largest car market,' said David Fischer Sr., chairman and chief executive officer of Suburban Collection, which operates eight Saturn dealerships in Florida and Michigan.

Suburban Collection董事长兼首席执行长大卫?费舍(David Fischer)称，这将成为某家厂商进入全球最大汽车市场的廉价跳板。这家公司在佛罗里达和密歇根州经营着8家土星汽车销售店。

GM's move to pare brands -- disclosed in a recovery plan it filed Tuesday with the U.S. government -- represents a major shift in thinking at the company. Adding brands to appeal to different types of consumers, from college students to senior citizens, was part of the formula that enabled GM to grow and remain the world's largest auto maker for nearly 80 years.

通用汽车在周二向政府提交的 兴计划中披露了精简品牌的意图，表示该公司的思路发生了重大转变。扩大品牌队伍，以迎合从大学生到老人等不同类型消费者需要，这曾是通用汽车赖以不断发展并把持全球汽车业龙头位置将近80年的经营模式的一个组成部分。

But faced with huge losses and relying on government handouts, GM will shrink to its most successful brands.

但在巨额亏损和依赖政府救助的现实环境下，通用汽车将把业务收缩到效益最好的品牌上。

Saturn, Hummer, Saab and Pontiac have all struggled to attract customers. That prompted GM to sell large numbers of them to car-rental concerns, corporate fleet buyers and GM's own employees. Of the 504,000 vehicles sold under the four brands in 2008, 40% went to fleets and employees. Such sales generally are less profitable than those to consumer buyers.

土星、庞蒂亚克、萨博和悍马这四个品牌一直难以吸引到顾客，以致于很多要卖给租赁公司、企业团购客户和内部员工。2008年这四个品牌共售出50.4万辆，其中四成是卖给团购客户和自己的员工。而这类销售的利润通常要比零售来得少。

In its recovery plan, GM said Saturn, Hummer and Saab generated an average annual pretax loss of $1.1 billion a year between 2003 and 2007.

通用汽车在其 兴计划中称，土星、庞蒂亚克、萨博和悍马这四个品牌在2003至2007年间平均每年产生11亿美元的税前亏损。

Hummer, the maker of hulking sport-utility vehicles inspired by military models, will be sold or phased out. Saab, the Swedish niche brand, could file for bankruptcy protection within a month, GM said in its recovery plan. Pontiac will be reduced to just one or two models and essentially cease to exist as a full line.

通用汽车在 兴计划中表示，由军用车型发展而来的悍马品牌将被卖掉，或是逐步淘汰。瑞典的小众汽车品牌萨博将在一个月内申请破产保护。庞蒂亚克将把规模精减至一到两个车型，甚至有可能会全部退市。

For years, analysts have urged GM to pare its brands. But GM executives insisted it would be too expensive after spending an estimated $2 billion to wind down Oldsmobile earlier this decade. Yet cutting brands shaves operating costs because each brand requires a certain amount of spending on product development advertising, dealer support and other expenses.

多年来分析师一直在敦促通用汽车精减品牌。但由于通用汽车在本世纪初为砍掉Oldsmobile这个品牌估计耗费了20亿美元，公司管理层一直坚持认为这样做的代价太高。然而，精减品牌可以压缩经营成本，因为每个品牌都需要一笔资金用于产品开发广告、经销商支持和其他方面。

In addition to trimming its main brands from eight to four by 2012, GM also plans to cut the number of individual U.S. models to 36 from 48. Among those that will disappear are the Chevrolet Cobalt and Pontiac Torrent. Eliminating models should help GM sell more of each surviving nameplate.

按照通用汽车的计划，除了到2012年将主力汽车品牌由8个减少至4个外，还要将在美国投放的车型由48个压缩到36个。那些将要消失的车型包括雪佛兰的Cobalt和庞蒂亚克的Torrent。这些车型退市将有助于提升每种幸存车型的销量。

In 2007, Toyota sold an average of 90,000 vehicles per nameplate, such as the Camry LE, while each GM nameplate sold 54,000 on average, according to GM's submission to the federal government.

据通用汽车提交给美国政府的资料称，2007年丰田汽车每种车型的平均销量为9万辆，例如凯美瑞LE(Camry LE)，相比之下通用汽车每种车型只有5.4万辆。

Kate Linebaugh / Neal E. Boudette

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090220/ffe135857.asp

舍弃底特律才能保美国

Obama Must Destroy Detroit So America Can Live

舍弃底特律才能保美国

Dear President Obama,

总统奥巴马在上：

Who said life was fair?

谁说人生是公平的？

You're in office less than a month and the markets already hate your presidency, your treasury secretary and your economic stimulus plan.

上任还不到一个月，你的总统宝座、财政部长和经济刺激计划已经招来市场怨恨。

Not all is lost. The great Detroit bailout debate is here again. And now you have a chance to do the right thing. Forget about throwing billions more of taxpayer money at Motown.

还有希望。大规模救助底特律汽车厂商的争论又来了，现在你有一个机会做正确的事了。别再打算拿几十亿纳税人血汗钱往汽车城打水漂了。

It's time for you to destroy Detroit, so that the rest of America can live.

现在到了你一举摧毁底特律的时候了，因为这样美国其他部分才能好好生活。

Mr. President, it's time for the bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler.

总统先生，是时候让通用汽车(GM)和克莱斯勒(Chrysler)破产了。

Now that may seem harsh. But you really have no choice. Look around you. Everybody in America has his hand out - California and the movie industry, New York and Wall Street, homebuilders and the millions of mortgage deadbeats.

尽管这似乎很残酷，但你的确别无选择。不妨环顾一下。美国到处都在伸手求助──加州与电影业、纽约和华尔街、建筑商以及数百万被抵押贷款压垮的人。

You need to send a message to all America - and fast. No more Mr. Nice Guy and no more money. Reinventing America doesn't mean bailing everyone out. It means stopping those things that just don't work anymore.

你需要向美国各处传递一个信息──而且要快。不会再有好好先生，不会再有资金救助。重振美国经济不代表就要普渡众生，而是要终结那些行将就木的明日黄花。

And Detroit makes a great showpiece. It hasn't worked well for decades.

现在底特律提供了一个绝好的样板。汽车城运转不灵已经数十年了。

Of course, you're trying to show Detroit that you mean business. Yesterday, your adviser, David Axelrod talked tough on Meet the Press.

当然，你正试图向底特律展示你要动真格了。昨天你的顾问大卫·艾索洛(David Axelrod)在电视访谈中言辞强硬。

And today, there's the predictable hoopla in the press. Detroit execs and union reps stuck battling mano-a-mano in all-night negotiating sessions. The appointment of savior du jour, Ron Bloom, the tough, but fair restructuring guru who will shake the trees.

今天，媒体如预期那样喧哗起来。底特律管理人士和工会代表彻夜谈判，锱铢必较。政府则任命了罗恩·布鲁姆(Ron Bloom)扮演汽车业救世主的角色，这个强硬的家伙但公平的重组高手将带来震撼。

And, no doubt at 5 p.m. EST, GM and Chrysler will hand thousands of pages of business plans 'proving a path to viability' to your new Presidential task force.

不用怀疑，美东时间下午5点的时候，通用汽车和克莱斯勒会向你新组建的特别小组呈交数千页的商业计划，长篇累牍地证明它们将如何生存。

But no one expects these plans to prove anything. Without a detailed agreement from the bondholders and the United Auto Workers, the plans are just empty words and meaningless waterfall charts.

但没人会指望这些计划能证明什么。没有来自债权人和全美汽车工人联合会(UAW)的具体协议，这些计划不过是废话连篇，毫无意义。

The reality is that GM, Chrysler, the UAW and the bondholders are just playing for time. They all want to see how much they can squeeze from you and the American taxpayer.

现实是，通用汽车、克莱斯勒、全美汽车工人联合会和债权人不过是在拖延时间而已。他们都想看看到底能从你和美国纳税人这里榨取出多少东西。

Now, you may think that your new task force will come up with some clever answers and give you political cover. But the big tough decisions on Detroit will come down to you anyway.

现在，你可能会认为你的特别小组会提出一些精明举措，为你提供政治保护。但在底特律问题上，迟早还是要由你痛下决心作出重大决策。

So, why not take a calculated risk and use Detroit to show taxpayers how to truly reinvent America? Here are three ways to do it.

因此，为什么不冒一次有备之险，拿底特律开刀向纳税人展示该如何真正重振美国呢？你有三条路可以走。

Bipartisanship?

两党合作？

Call Republican Senator Bob Corker and get him on board. Pair him with Ron Bloom to cook up a thoughtful bipartisan plan. The Republicans will happily put up billions for a smooth government sponsored bankruptcy.

打电话给共和党参议院考克(Bob Corker)，拉他入伙。让他和罗恩·布鲁姆协作制定一个深思熟虑的两党合作计划。那帮共和党人会很乐意投入数十亿美元，用于一个政府支持的顺利破产计划。

Fairness?

一碗水端平？

Americans are outraged by both Wall Street fat cats and the UAW job bank. Ensure that all the egregious perks are taken from both Detroit execs and the UAW. Corporate jets are easy to pick on. But does it seem right that all UAW workers continue to receive free legal services funded by the American taxpayer?

华尔街的硕鼠和汽车工人联合会已经激起了美国公愤。我们得保证取消底特律管理人士和汽车工人联合会所有过分的特权。在公司专机问题上挑刺很容易。但所有汽车工人联合会成员继续得到美国纳税人资助的免费法律服务，这看起来就公平？

Accountability?

问责制？

You're always saying that people should be responsible for their actions. Prove it. GM CEO Rick Wagoner and the GM board must go. And so too, sadly, must Chrysler. Chrysler is just too small and too far gone to survive.

你总是说人应当为自己的行为负责。那就证明一次吧。通用汽车首席执行长瓦格纳(Rick Wagoner)和董事会必须走人。很不幸，克莱斯勒也一样。克莱斯勒实在太弱小，犯错太多，以致于无法生存。

Now, there is no doubt that the Midwest and an army of Congressmen and K Street lobbyists will be deeply unhappy with something as radical as GM's bankruptcy.

当然，对任由通用汽车破产这样激进的决定，中西部人士还有那帮国会议员和说客们肯定会感到极度不满。

But such a bold gamble could mark a turning point early in your term.

不过，如果这样放手一搏，你的总统任期之初倒有可能出现重大转折。

It would get Republicans behind you. It would get Wall Street and America's trading partners behind you. And it would get even more Americans behind you. Americans know when something makes sense.

这会让你获得共和党人的支持，得到华尔街和美国贸易伙伴的拥护，甚至会更让你得到更多美国人的爱戴。美国民众是识大体识时务的。

Remember Ronald Reagan and the air traffic controllers' strike of 1981?

还记得里根总统和1981年的空中交通管制员罢工事件么？

That's how he reinvented America. Now, it's your turn.

那件事展示了里根重振美国经济的魄力。现在轮到你了。

Evan Newmark

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090218/mst142630.asp

中国汽车市场仍有亮点

It's Not All Gloom in China's Car Market

中国汽车市场仍有亮点

Two auto makers issued news that appeared to fly in the face of last week's report of a 7.8% drop in China's passenger vehicle sales in January or at least signal that demand for cars in China isn't sinking entirely, yet.

两家汽车制造商公布的最新销售数据似乎与上周公布的1月份中国乘用车销量下降7.8%的结果对不上号，也许，至少最新数字表明中国的汽车需求并未彻底一蹶不振。

Chery Automobile, one of China's biggest independent producers, says January sales rose, and it tips an 18% sales increase this year, while Japans' Honda Motor says January car sales in China rose nearly 17% from a year earlier. Yes, there were tax breaks and government stimulus measures, but with increasing job losses, weak domestic consumption and slowing Chinese growth, what gives?

中国最大的独立汽车制造商之一奇瑞汽车(Chery Automobile)宣布1月份汽车销量上升，预计全年销量有望增长18%。而日本本田汽车(Honda Motor)称，其1月份在华销量较上年同期增长近17%。虽然政府取消了部分相关税项并采取了刺激措施，但在失业率上升、国内消费疲软及中国经济增长放缓的背景下，中国汽车销售情况到底怎样呢？

Numbers in the first two months of the year are usually distorted by the Lunar New Year holiday. And with all the other variables, it is unclear if the relatively bright news from Chery and Honda signal a sustainable revival in domestic demand or a so-called dead-cat bounce false optimism that things are getting better.

每年头两个月的数字由于中国农历新年假期因素的影响，通常会有异常。现在还不清楚，在考虑其他所有可变因素后，奇瑞和本田相对出色的业绩是否预示着国内汽车需求正在复苏，抑或只是一种回光返照，误给人一种市场正在转好的乐观预期。

Chery, while not the market's absolute heavyweight, is China's most successful independent maker of cars without a foreign partner, but its sales dropped last year by 6.6%, missing its own outlook. Its forecast for this year could be too optimistic again.

尽管奇瑞并非中国汽车市场的绝对重量级选手，但它是中国最成功的独立汽车制造商，它没有外国合资方。去年，奇瑞销量下降了6.6%，低于它自己的预期。它对今年的预期可能又过于乐观了。

These are just two car makers and a further gauge of how strong passenger-vehicle demand really is will come in the next few months as the effect wears off both from the Lunar New Year and stimulus measures. The picture that then emerges is still expected to be bleak.

现在毕竟只有两家汽车厂商的增长数字，要考察乘用车市场的需求到底有多强劲，还要等几个月后春节和政府刺激政策的影响消退后再来判断。目前预计，那时的形势可能仍很黯淡。

For what it's worth, a typical Beijing street certainly doesn't give the impression that there are fewer cars around. Almost 1,500 cars a day have been added to Beijing's streets since the start of the year, according to the official Xinhua news agency.

不管实际情况怎样，北京的大街上肯定不会让人产生汽车变少了的印象。据官方媒体新华社报导，今年初以来，每天差不多有1,500辆新车加入北京的浩荡车流。

J.R. Wu

（“中国日志”（China Journal）关注全球第一人口大国的发展变化，《华尔街日报》获奖团队数十位记者倾情献稿，Sky Canaves主笔。欢迎读者发送邮件至chinajournal@wsj.com或在下面评论栏中发表评论和建议。）

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090218/chj103502.asp

消费者青睐小型车 豪华车商望路兴叹

Luxury-Auto Makers Stall As Consumers Switch Gears

消费者青睐小型车 豪华车商望路兴叹

Once envied for generating the industry's highest profit margins per car, the world's top three makers of luxury cars are facing a sea change triggered by imploding demand amid a broader trend toward smaller, less-profitable vehicles.

曾几何时，世界三大豪华汽车生产商因得以享受汽车业最高的利润率而备受 慕，而在市场转向小型低利润车型的当前趋势下，它们正在经历汽车市场的沧海桑田之变。

Analysts say they don't expect the record earnings reaped in recent years by BMW AG, Daimler AG's Mercedes-Benz division and Volkswagen AG's Audi unit to return anytime soon.

分析师预计，宝马(BMW)、戴姆勒(Daimler)旗下奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)子公司及大众(Volkswagen)旗下奥迪(Audi)子公司近年来达创纪录水平的利润将不会很快重现。

Sanford Bernstein analyst Max Warburton says the vast majority of profits in recent years have come from high-powered cars bought in the U.S. and the U.K. as well as newly wealthy customers in oil-producing countries. 'One could argue these consumers -- at least the Americans and Brits -- are going to have their spending power constrained for a long time,' he says.

Sanford Bernstein的分析师沃伯顿(Max Warburton)说，这些年来，利润的绝大部分来自在美国和英国售出的大排量车以及产油国新富们购买的车。他说，人们可以推断，在相当长时期内，这些消费者──至少是其中的美国人和英国人──的开支能力将受到抑制。

Even though the three German car makers appear to have more muscle to steer through the current industry gloom than most of their rivals, thanks mainly to higher cash reserves and relatively low debt levels, coming quarters are set to be bumpy.

得益于较高的现金储备和相对较低的负债水平，德国三大车商度过眼下这波行业萧条期的实力似乎较他们的多数竞争对手更强。尽管如此，对他们而言，未来几个季度也注定不会一路顺风。

'All of the luxury producers are likely to cancel product-development programs, cut capital spending, cut marketing spend and ultimately cut head count. But when your top line is down 25% to 30% these measures will not restore the business to profitability,' Mr. Warburton says, 'Losses will be substantial.'

沃伯顿说，这几家豪华车制造商都有可能取消产品开发计划、削减资本支出、减少营销费用，最后还可能裁员。但是，在销售下降25%-30%的情形下，这些措施将不足以让企业恢复盈利。亏损将是巨大的。

BMW, the world's biggest seller of premium cars, posted a 22% drop in global sales last month at its core brand to 60,248 vehicles. The world's No. 2 luxury-car maker, Mercedes-Benz, saw sales come in at 53,900 cars, down 35% from a year earlier. Audi reported that sales fell 29% to around 56,200 cars.

上个月，全球最大的高档车制造商宝马公布，其核心品牌的全球销量下滑22%，至60,248辆。规模排在第二的奔驰销量为53,900辆，较上年同期下降35%。奥迪公布的销量为56,200辆，降幅29%。

An incentive plan in Germany to pay 2,500 euros, or about $3,200, to consumers who scrap old cars and buy new ones is expected to spark demand mainly for small cars rather than for luxury vehicles. 'Examples in Spain and Italy show that these plans lead more to market distortion than sustainable stimulation,' Commerzbank analyst Daniel Schwarz says.

预计德国的旧车换新车补贴计划将主要刺激小型车需求，而不是豪华车。该计划将对主动废弃旧车、换购新车的消费者提供2,500欧元的补贴。德国商业银行 (Commerzbank)分析师施瓦茨(Daniel Schwarz)说，西班牙和意大利实行的类似计划显示，这种做法更多导致的是市场扭曲，而不是持续的市场刺激。

Spokesmen for BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi say their companies are seeking to preserve profit margins as far as possible as they focus on profitability rather than sales volume. All three companies are slashing production to avoid the buildup of inventory, streamlining cost structures and pushing for improved efficiency.

宝马、奔驰和奥迪的发言人均表示，公司希望尽可能保持利润率，他们更关注盈利能力，而不是追求销量。这三家公司为避免增加库存均在减产，并精简了成本结构、争取改善效率。

BMW has launched an overhaul of its U.S. strategy in order to boost the profitability of each model line by raising prices and lowering incentives. The company tries to steer consumers away from leasing into financing deals through better credit offerings.

宝马已对其美国业务战略作出修改，通过提高车价、降低促销费用来提升每个车型的盈利能力。该公司试图将消费者从租车引向通过更优惠的信贷方案贷款购车。

Mercedes-Benz has just launched a new version of the E-Class, a key model, and aims to lure buyers with state-of-the-art technology, including a system alerting drivers when they are getting tired.

奔驰刚刚为其主打车型E-Class推出新版本。它的目标是以最新技术吸引买家，比如能在驾车人感到困倦时发出警告的系统。

Audi says that in Germany it is scaling down business with car-rental companies and cutting employee vehicles in a bid to reduce the number of relatively young used cars in the residual market to stabilize values.

奥迪则表示，它正在德国缩减与租车公司的业务，并削减员工用车业务，希望以此减少残旧车市场上使用年头相对较短的二手车数量，以稳定车价。

Analysts see the ability to create profits with smaller cars as crucial for premium auto makers. 'That suggests Audi -- with VW's [economies of scale] and the very profitable A3 -- is best positioned. Next BMW -- its Mini and 1 series are very low-margin at best but at least have a market niche,' says Sanford Bernstein's Mr. Warburton. 'Mercedes-Benz looks most exposed of all. But honestly, they're all in trouble.'

分析师预计，用小型车创造利润的能力对豪华车生产商来说非常关键。Sanford Bernstein的沃伯顿说，这意味着奥迪的处境最好，它有大众（的规模效益）和非常赚钱的A3。其次是宝马，它的Mini以及1系列车型毛利率无论怎么说都很低，但它至少有自己的细分市场。奔驰在三家公司中是受影响风险最大的。但是，坦率地说，他们都面临困境。

Christoph Rauwald

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090217/ffe154613.asp

美国汽车业巨头面临破产危险

Auto Maker Bankruptcy Looms

美国汽车业巨头面临破产危险

Troubled U.S. auto makers and union representatives dug in late Monday for all-night cost-cutting negotiations as the government advanced its point person on auto restructuring, a former investment banker with a record for demanding harsh concessions from manufacturers, unions and investors alike.

陷入困境的美国汽车生产商和工会代表周一晚上彻夜协商成本削减计划，而政府则任命了一名前投资银行家作为汽车业重组谈判的代表。这位代表此前一贯要求制造商、工会和投资者作出巨大让步。

General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC are required to submit recovery plans to the government on Tuesday as part of their agreement to receive billions of dollars in federal loans. As the government's auto-industry task force began to take shape ahead of the deadline, President Barack Obama's administration appeared to be turning up the pressure on GM and Chrysler to carry out tough restructuring measures, possibly through the use of the bankruptcy court.

按照要求，通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)和克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)周二要向政府提交各自的复兴计划，这是它们获得数十亿美元联邦贷款的协议的一部分。随着政府的汽车业特别工作组在截止日期前开始成型，奥巴马政府看起来正在向通用汽车和克莱斯勒施加更大的压力，迫使它们实施严苛的重组措施，或许还要通过破产法院。

The administration stepped back over the weekend from naming a 'car czar,' as it had planned, to oversee the restructuring. But according to people familiar with the task force, it named former Lazard Freres & Co. investment banker Ron Bloom a key adviser. Mr. Bloom, who made a name advising U.S. steelworkers to accept major concessions in several bankruptcy cases, is expected to take the force's lead role, a senior U.S. Treasury official says.

政府周末放弃了任命“汽车沙皇”来监督重组的计划。不过知情人士说，政府任命了Lazard Freres & Co.的投资银行家罗恩?布鲁姆(Ron Bloom)担任关键顾问。布鲁姆曾因在数起破产案中建议美国钢铁工人作出重大让步而成名。财政部的一位高级官员说，预计布鲁姆将在特别工作组中扮演主角。

People who know Mr. Bloom expect him to push for harsh concessions from the auto makers, the United Auto Workers and other parties involved in their restructuring.

熟悉布鲁姆的人预计，他将推动汽车制造商、全美汽车工人联合会(UAW)和其他参与重组的各方作出重大让步。

'The management of the Big Three are probably not going to like what Ron Bloom has to say; the UAW is not going to like what Ron Bloom has to say; and certainly the stockholders and creditors will not like what he has to say,' said Michael Psaros, a co-founder of private-equity group KPS Capital Partners, who has worked with Mr. Bloom in and out of bankruptcy courts. Mr. Bloom, he added, has 'repeatedly shown an ability to transform struggling companies into profitable going concerns.'

私人资本公司KPS Capital Partners的联合创始人普萨洛斯(Michael Psaros)说，三巨头的管理层可能不会喜欢布鲁姆的提议，汽车工会不会喜欢，当然股东和债权人也不会喜欢。普萨洛斯与布鲁姆在破产案件以及其他领域都有合作。他还说，布鲁姆一再显示了把陷入困境的企业转变成持续盈利公司的能力。

Under the terms of their loans, GM and Chrysler are supposed to submit recovery plans to the Treasury Department on Tuesday showing how they are using taxpayer dollars to become viable. They are supposed to include agreements with the UAW on labor-cost reductions and deals with bondholders and other creditors for reducing their debt. Those talks have bogged down as all sides awaited the naming of a car czar to oversee the process.

按照贷款的条款，通用汽车和克莱斯勒应该在周二向财政部提交复兴计划，阐述他们打算如何利用纳税人的钱来恢复活力。计划应该包括与汽车工会达成的降低劳动力成本协议，以及与债券持有者和其他债权人达成的削减债务协议。在各方都等着政府任命“汽车沙皇”来监督重组过程之际，有关这方面的谈判停顿了下来。

Late Monday afternoon, talks between the UAW and GM, and separate negotiations with Chrysler, were making some progress as the parties hammered out cost-reduction details. But people familiar with the talks said that significant differences remain between the sides. The car companies must submit their proposals by 5 p.m. Tuesday to James Lambright, chief investment officer for the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

周一下午，全美汽车工人联合会与通用汽车和克莱斯勒分别进行谈判，随着参与方敲定了成本削减的细节，谈判取得了一定的进展。不过知情人士说，双方之间的重大分歧仍未消除。通用汽车和克莱斯勒必须在周二下午五点前把计划提交给问题资产救助计划(TARP)首席投资长兰布赖特(James Lambright)。

Details of the government's task force emerged over the weekend but its final composition remains unclear. It will be led jointly by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Lawrence Summers, who heads the National Economic Council, and will be responsible for managing the $17.4 billion in federal loan agreements between the auto makers and the U.S. government.

政府特别工作组的详细情况周末浮出水面，不过最终的组成人员仍不清楚。工作组将由美国财政部长盖特纳和国家经济委员会主席萨默斯联合挂帅，并负责管理通用汽车和克莱斯勒与美国政府之间达成的174亿美元联邦贷款协议。

Mr. Bloom, 53 years old, was named as an adviser to the Treasury and will report to Messrs. Geithner and Summers. Also named to the task force was Diana Farrell, deputy director of the National Economic Council. Ms. Farrell was formerly a director with McKinsey & Co. and did extensive work on the firm's research of global economies. Ms. Farrell did not respond to requests for comment.

现年53岁的布鲁姆被任命为财政部顾问，他将向盖特纳和萨默斯汇报工作。特别工作组中还包括国家经济委员会副主席法瑞尔(Diana Farrell)。法瑞尔曾是麦肯锡公司(McKinsey & Co., Inc.)的一位主管，任职期间在全球经济体研究方面进行了大量的工作。她没有回复记者的置评请求。

People familiar with the panel say it could also include Steven Rattner, a New York financial executive who was strongly considered for the car czar role.

知情人士说，特别工作组可能还包括瑞特纳(Steven Rattner)。此人是纽约金融高管，曾经是“汽车沙皇”的一个热门人选。

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said naming a team brings in 'a broader array of people' who have expertise and 'can deal with the many challenges' the restructuring of the industry is going to face in the next several months.

白宫发言人吉布斯(Robert Gibbs)说，任命一个工作组，可以引入各类有专业知识、能应对未来几个月中汽车业重组面临的很多挑战的人士。

GM so far has accepted $13.4 billion in loans and Chrysler $4 billion. GM is expected to tell the government it needs several billion more or it may have to file for bankruptcy protection. Chrysler has said it hopes to get $3 billion in additional loans.

目前为止，通用汽车和克莱斯勒已分别收到134亿和40亿美元贷款。预计通用汽车会向政府表示，需要追加数十亿美元贷款，否则公司可能不得不申请破产保护。克莱斯勒则说希望再获得30亿美元贷款。

Both companies' plans are expected to include a number of plant closures. GM is likely to outline other measures such as the sale of some of its eight automotive brands. Chrysler will provide two recovery scenarios, one as a stand-alone company and one as part of its proposed alliance with Fiat SpA.

预计两家公司的计划都将包括大批工厂的关闭。通用汽车很可能还会提出其他措施，比如出售旗下八大汽车品牌中的部分品牌。克莱斯勒则将提出两种复兴方案，一种是作为独立公司运营，另一种是作为与菲亚特公司(Fiat SpA)拟议合作的一部分运营。

President Obama's administration has told GM to 'address' the possibility of the company eventually filing for bankruptcy protection, Rep. Sander Levin, a Michigan Democrat, said Monday. 'They've been asked to address the issue of bankruptcy in their plan but not to have that as an alternative plan,' Mr. Levin said in a phone interview. 'That's my understanding.'

来自密歇根州的民主党籍众议员桑德?雷文(Sander Levin)说，奥巴马政府已告知通用汽车，要其“提及”公司最终会申请破产保护的可能性。雷文在接受电话采访时说，我的理解是，通用汽车虽然被要求在其计划中提及破产问题，但并未被要求将破产作为一项替代性方案。

A GM spokesman declined to comment, but people familiar with the matter have said the auto maker has been preparing detailed bankruptcy plans and has softened its previous view that a bankruptcy filing was not an option for the company.

虽然通用汽车的发言人拒绝对此事发表评论，但知情人士已表示，该公司一直在准备详细的破产计划，并已软化了其认为申请破产不是公司一项选择的既有观点。

On Sunday, David Axelrod, a senior adviser to President Obama, declined to rule out a government-backed bankruptcy as a possibility for restructuring the industry. 'We're going to need a major restructuring of these companies,' Mr. Axelrod said on NBC's 'Meet the Press.' 'How that restructuring comes is something that has to be determined.'

奥巴马总统的高级顾问大卫?阿克希洛德(David Axelrod)周日拒绝排除通过政府支持的破产来重组汽车产业的可能性。他在接受美国全国广播公司(NBC)“与媒体会面”(Meet the Press)节目采访时说，需要对美国的汽车公司进行重大重组，但具体如何重组目前尚无定论。

Mr. Bloom, a graduate of Harvard University who spent 10 years at investment banks before joining a team advising the steelworkers union, is seen as one of the chief architects of the long-running consolidation of the steel industry, which involved about 35 bankruptcies over several decades. He's known as a blunt and straightforward communicator. The voicemail greeting on his office and cellphone is simply, 'Hi, it's Ron, you know the drill.'

毕业于哈佛大学的布鲁姆曾有10年投资银行从业经历，他目前是钢铁工人工会顾问团的一员，被认为是美国钢铁工业长期整合进程的主要设计师之一。在这一持续了几十年的进程中，大约有35家钢铁企业先后破产。布鲁姆以其生硬而直来直去的沟通方式而闻名。他为自己办公室电话和手机设置的留言提示很简单：嗨，我是罗恩，你知道该怎么做。

Mr. Bloom did not return several phone calls for comment.

布鲁姆未回复要求他发表评论的数通电话。

Under Mr. Bloom's guidance, the United Steelworkers gave up pay, job security and benefits in a bid to help the industry recover. In some cases, thousands of steelworker jobs were lost when union leadership agreed to large-scale work-force reductions in restructured companies.

在他的指导下，美国联合钢铁工人工会(United Steelworkers)放弃了工资、就业保障和福利等方面的诉求，为的就是帮助美国钢铁工业复苏。在某些情况下，由于工会领导层同意进行重组的钢铁企业大规模裁员，成千上万的钢铁工人失去了工作。

In other cases, workers who kept their jobs had to work more years at the new company to become eligible for pension benefits. In several cases, in exchange for concessions from the union Mr. Bloom was able to negotiate benefits for union members and retirees that kicked in once reconfigured steel companies became profitable again.

而在另一些情形下，那些保住了工作的钢铁工人不得不在重组后的新公司工作更多年头，这样才能获得享受退休金福利的资格。有时候，为了换取工会方面的让步，布鲁姆曾代表工会会员和企业退休人员与资方谈判员工福利，这些福利会在重组后的钢铁公司扭亏为盈时兑现。

Such creative solutions could also come into play at the automakers. Wilbur Ross, a billionaire investor who worked closely with Mr. Bloom in restructuring the steel industry, credits him with being tough on corporations without being destructive.

这些富有创意的解决方案在汽车行业的重组中也有可能发挥作用。威尔伯?罗斯(Wilbur Ross)是一位在重组美国钢铁工业方面曾与布鲁姆密切合作的亿万富翁投资者，他赞扬布鲁姆说，此人既能对资方保持强硬态度，但又不会起破坏作用。

He 'probably saved the jobs of 100,000 steelworkers,' Mr. Ross said, while also saying Mr. Bloom 'negotiated a totally different contract that simplified work rules' and other union provisions.

罗斯说，布鲁姆可能挽救了10万钢铁工人的工作。但他也表示，布鲁姆谈成了与以往完全不同的工作合同，这些合同简化了工作规章和其他工会条款。

Alan Reuther, the UAW's legislative director, said the union does not believe Mr. Bloom's appointment increases the chances the auto makers will seek bankruptcy protection. Mr. Reuther lauded the choice of Mr. Bloom, calling him a 'very bright, talented person with a lot of experience about restructuring.'

全美汽车工人联合会的立法总监艾伦?尤瑟(Alan Reuther)说，该会并不认为对布鲁姆的任命会增加汽车生产商寻求破产保护的几率。尤瑟支持对布鲁姆的任命，称他是一个非常聪明、有才能的人，在重组方面经验丰富。

Mr. Bloom had been mulling his involvement in the Obama administration's auto-industry oversight effort in recent weeks. He is expected to lean heavily on the NEC's Ms. Farrell, as well as Centerbridge Capital's Stephen Girsky, is a key adviser for United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger.

布鲁姆最近几周一直在仔细考虑如何有效参与奥巴马政府挽救汽车业的努力。他预计会大力依靠国家经济委员会的法瑞尔以及Centerbridge Capital的斯蒂芬?葛斯基(Stephen Girsky)，后者是全美汽车工人联合会主席罗恩?葛蒂尔芬格(Ron Gettelfinger)的重要顾问。

The Obama administration decided to name a task force after concluding that identifying and recruiting a car czar was a nearly impossible task, say administration officials and finance executives involved in the process.

据美国政府官员和从事相关工作的财经界管理人士说，奥巴马政府在认定找到并招募一位“汽车沙皇”几乎是件不可能的任务后，决定组建一个救助汽车业的工作团队。

'Whoever did the job would be politically assassinated,' said one administration official. 'The car czar became a political hot potato. A smart New York guy wasn't one of theirs [from the Big Three]. And a Detroit guy wasn't acceptable to environmental and energy interests. No one person would be politically acceptable.'

一位政府官员说，无论由谁来充当“汽车沙皇”，他都会遭到政治上的暗杀，这一职位已经成了政坛上的一块烫手山芋。从纽约找来的精明人士不对三大汽车公司的胃口。而底特律所满意的人选又不会被鼓吹环保和节能的人士所接受。没有一个人能在政治上被各方都接受。

A leading contender to be the car czar was Mr. Rattner, a prominent New York Democrat and the founder of private-equity firm Quadrangle. His candidacy ran into conflict-of-interest questions because Quadrangle had borrowed from Chrysler's majority owner, Cerberus Capital Management LP. At the same time, Mr. Rattner had concerns about deserting his business for a politically charged assignment, said a New York executive.

纽约民主党要员瑞特纳曾被认为是出任“汽车沙皇”一职的热门人选，此人创办了私人资本运营公司Quadrangle。由于Quadrangle曾向克莱斯勒的大股东Cerberus Capital Management LP借过钱，因此有人质疑他出任此职会产生利益冲突。而据纽约的一位企业高管说，瑞特纳本人也对放弃自己的生意去担任一个颇有政治风险的公职感到犹豫不决。

John D. Stoll / Monica Langley

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090217/ffe122344.asp

该让通用汽车破产还是继续输血？

GM To Offer Two Choices: Bankruptcy Or More Aid

该让通用汽车破产还是继续输血？

General Motors Corp., nearing a federally imposed deadline to present a restructuring plan, will offer the government two costly alternatives: commit billions more in bailout money to fund the company's operations, or provide financial backing as part of a bankruptcy filing, said people familiar with GM's thinking.

美国联邦政府要求通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)拿出重组计划的最后期限已近在眼前，据某些了解通用汽车想法的知情者透露，公司将把两个昂贵的选项摆在政府面前：要么承诺追加数十亿的援助资金以维系公司经营，要么作为破产申请内容的一部分向通用汽车提供金融支持。

The competing choices, which highlight GM's rapidly deteriorating operations, present a dilemma for Congress and the Obama administration. If they refuse to provide additional aid to GM on top of the $13.4 billion already committed they risk seeing an industrial icon fall into bankruptcy.

这两个选项突显出通用汽车迅速恶化的经营状况，也让国会和奥巴马政府左右为难。如果他们拒绝在早已承诺的134亿美元救助资金基础上追加援助，那就要冒上眼见汽车业标志性企业轰然倒下的风险。

Some experts and members of Congress say bankruptcy reorganization is the surest way for GM to cut costs and become viable. But it could be a politically unpalatable development during a recession that already has thrown millions of workers out of jobs.

一些专家和国会议员称，破产重组是让通用汽车削减成本、恢复生机的最可靠途径。但在经济衰退已经导致数百万人失业的情况下，此举会在政治上酿成苦果。

Treasury Department officials believe GM needs at least $5 billion more in U.S. loans to keep operating beyond the first quarter, said people familiar with the situation.

据知情人士称，美国财政部(Treasury Department)认为，至少还要向通用汽车提供50亿美元才能让该公司撑过第一季度。

The call for additional funds will be a key part of the revitalization plan GM is required to file with the Treasury by Tuesday, though it is unclear whether GM will furnish a dollar amount, said people familiar with the matter. The plan is supposed to describe how the company will become self-sustaining and better compete with foreign rivals.

知情人士称，在通用汽车定于周二提交给财政部的复兴计划中，重头戏肯定是索要更多的资金援助，但并不清楚公司是否会给出具体的数字。通用汽车应该在这份计划书中阐述公司将如何自谋出路、加强与外国同行的竞争力。

But it's increasingly unlikely GM will have a finished plan in time. Negotiations with GM's unions and bondholders haven't yet produced commitments to concrete concessions as required by terms of the federal loans; talks are expected to continue over the holiday weekend. People involved in the talks say progress has been slowed by the fact the Obama administration has yet to appoint a 'car czar,' as envisioned by the bailout program.

但目前来看，公司如期拿出一份完整计划的可能性越来越小。通用汽车与工会和债券持有人的谈判仍未达成联邦贷款条件所要求的重大让步承诺，谈判将在这个假期周末继续进行。据参与谈判的人士透露，鉴于奥巴马政府仍未按照援助计划任命一位负责监管汽车行业的“汽车沙皇”，谈判一直进展缓慢。

GM will argue it needs the additional government funds to stay out of bankruptcy court, people familiar with the matter said. At the same time, the company -- which previously had dismissed suggestions that it might need to file for bankruptcy -- has moved closer to such a prospect.

知情人士透露，通用汽车将辩说自己需要更多政府资金以避免破产。而与此同时，之前一度否认将提交破产申请的该公司已经在一步步走向破产境地。

GM believes government funds would be needed for debtor-in-possession financing should the company seek bankruptcy because such money wouldn't be available from private sources, said people familiar with the situation.

知情人士说，通用汽车认为，若公司寻求破产，将无法通过私营领域的资源进行债务人持有破产资产(Debtor-in-Possession)融资，这就需要政府提供资金。

The auto maker eventually may seek permission to extend the March 31 deadline to complete certain restructuring actions by at least several months.

该公司最终可能会申请将完成特定重组的最后期限（3月31日）延后至少几个月。

Rick Wagoner, GM's chairman and chief executive, once fiercely opposed a bankruptcy filing, saying it would scare off customers. But his opinion has softened, and he has been influential in shaping the plan for a possible filing, said people involved in the strategy.

通用汽车董事长兼首席执行长瓦格纳(Rick Wagoner)此前曾坚决反对破产，称此举会造成消费者的恐慌。据知情人士称，他的态度已有所软化，并已在着手推动可能的破产保护计划。

GM declined to comment.

通用汽车方面拒绝对此置评。

GM's board began more seriously considering bankruptcy in November as the company's liquidity headed toward unsustainable levels. In early December, at the board's prompting, Mr. Wagoner hired bankruptcy lawyers and advisers to begin preparing a contingency plan, said people familiar with the matter.

知情人士称，当通用汽车的流动性在去年11月渐显难以为继之势时，公司董事会便开始更认真地考虑是否要申请破产。12月初，瓦格纳在董事会的敦促下聘请了破产律师和顾问，为应急计划作准备。

In the months that followed, these bankruptcy experts worked alongside advisers Evercore Partners and Morgan Stanley, both of which previously worked for GM, to develop multiple options for GM's future.

随后的几个月，破产事务专家与之前曾为通用汽车服务的咨询机构Evercore Partners及摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)联手合作，为通用汽车的前途制定了多套方案。

One plan includes a Chapter 11 filing that would assemble all of GM's viable assets, including some U.S. brands and international operations, into a new company. The undesirable assets would be liquidated or sold under protection of a bankruptcy court. Contracts with bondholders, unions, dealers and suppliers would also be reworked.

方案之一涉及到破产申请，把通用汽车所有能维持下去的资产（包括部分美国品牌和国际业务）整合到一家新公司。不良资产则会在破产法院的保护下被清算或出售。公司与债券持有者、工会、经销商和供应商之间的合约也会被重新协商制定。

GM received a tax break of around $3 billion as part of President Obama's economic stimulus plan. The break saves GM from having to pay taxes associated with its bailout.

通用汽车曾经从奥巴马政府的经济刺激计划中获得了约30亿美元的减税。它因此可以免缴与公司救助有关的课税。

Chrysler LLC is also due to file a viability plan Tuesday. The company is expected to submit two scenarios, one spelling out how it can restructure as an independent company and the other taking into account its tentative alliance with Fiat SpA, people familiar with the matter said.

克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)也需要在周二提交一份 兴计划。知情人士说，预计该公司将提出两种选择，一种是如何作为一家独立企业进行重组，另一种则涉及到与菲亚特公司(Fiat SpA)的暂定合作。

Chrysler was given $4 billion in U.S. loans after nearly running out of money. The company is looking to Fiat to provide technology for small and midsize cars that Chrysler would build and sell under its own brands. In exchange, the Italian company would take a 35% Chrysler stake.

克莱斯勒在资金消耗殆尽后，收到了40亿美元的美国政府贷款。眼下公司正努力争取从菲亚特获得中小型汽车的技术，克莱斯勒将以自己的品牌生产销售这类汽车。作为交换条件，意大利公司菲亚特将取得克莱斯勒35%的股份。

Other stakes in Chrysler could be parceled out to compensate the UAW and debt holders for cost concessions, leaving majority owner Cerberus Capital Management LP with a dramatically diminished holding, people familiar with the matter said. Cerberus now owns 80.1% of Chrysler, and Daimler AG 19.9%.

知情人士说，克莱斯勒的其他股份可能会分配出去，补偿全美汽车工人联合会(UAW)和债权人在成本上作出的让步，使得多数股权持有者Cerberus Capital Management LP的持股大幅减少。Cerberus现在持有克莱斯勒80.1%的股份，戴姆勒(Daimler AG)持有克莱斯勒19.9%的股份。

But like GM, Chrysler also needs more government help to stay afloat. The company has said it intends to ask for $3 billion in additional loans.

不过与通用汽车一样，克莱斯勒也需要更多的政府救助才能维持运转。公司表示，计划再申请30亿美元的贷款。

For the past few weeks, Chrysler has been urging dealers to order more vehicles to give the company enough revenue to keep going through the end of March. On Friday, executives said in a conference call that it reached its goal of bringing in 78,000 orders for February, said a dealer who participated in the call.

几周来，克莱斯勒一直在敦促经销商增加汽车订购量，让公司有足够的收入维持到3月底。据参加了上周五克莱斯勒电话会议的一位经销商说，公司高管说，已经实现2月份7.8万辆的订单目标。

Chrysler declined to comment on its revamping plan.

克莱斯勒拒绝就重组计划置评。

GM's viability plan will present a restructuring strategy allowing it to be profitable in each of the regions in which it operates globally, people who have seen the plan said. The plan will include broad restructuring targets, including more than 10 plant closures in North America.

知情人士说，通用汽车的计划将提出一项重组战略，让公司在每一个全球化运营的地区盈利。计划将包括广泛的重组目标，包括在北美关闭10多家工厂。

While GM's plan will include updates on talks with unions and bondholders related to concessions, the auto maker is expected to ask for leeway on when it can provide specific details about what cuts the two parties are willing to make.

尽管通用汽车的计划将包括与工会和债券持有者在成本让步方面的最新谈判进展，但预计克莱斯勒会要求，在提供二者成本削减的具体细节上时间能有所宽限。

Negotiations with the United Auto Workers union and a bondholders committee have been slow for several reasons. For one, both expressed frustration over the amount of sacrifice they are being asked to take, compared to other stakeholders such as dealers and even asbestos litigants. And both argued that a car czar is needed to help expedite the talks.

与UAW和债券持有者委员会的谈判一直进展缓慢，原因有几个。首先，与经销商甚至石棉诉讼案原告方等其他利益相关方相比，二者被要求作出的牺牲巨大，它们对此表示失望。二者还表示，需要任命一个“汽车沙皇”帮助推进谈判。

UAW President Ron Gettelfinger has been asking the Obama administration for more time to negotiate with the auto makers. Mr. Gettelfinger, a strong supporter of Mr. Obama's presidential campaign, is also hopeful that the government will take responsibility for some of GM's $47 billion in retiree health care obligations, said people familiar with his thinking.

UAW主席葛蒂尔芬格(Ron Gettelfinger)一直在向奥巴马政府要求，在与汽车制造商谈判的问题上给他们更多时间。葛蒂尔芬格是奥巴马竞选阵营强有力的支持者。知情人士说，他还希望政府将担负起通用汽车470亿美元退休医疗责任的一部分。

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) and House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank (D., Mass.) on Friday sent a letter to the chief executives of GM and Chrysler laying out expectations for their viability plans.

众议院议长、加州民主党议员佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)和众议院金融服务委员会主席、马萨诸塞州民主党议员弗兰克(Barney Frank)上周五联合致函通用汽车和克莱斯勒的首席执行长，列出了对他们的具体期望。

The lawmakers asked that the plans demonstrate 'a commitment that the sacrifices necessary to turn the industry around will be shared equitably by all stakeholders' and 'a demonstrated commitment to restructure your company's debt in a manner that protects the interests of the taxpayers.'

两位议员要求， 兴计划要承诺，“为扭转行业形势作出的必要牺牲将由所有利益相关方公平分担”，且“要以保护纳税人利益的方式重组公司债务。”

John D. Stoll / Sharon Terlep

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090216/bus100813.asp

蒙牛真无耻，以后再不能买蒙牛产品

　　蒙牛OMP的华丽转身和卫生部神秘专家的太极推手

　　作者：张胖子

　　今天上网，看到了铺天盖地消息《卫生部等六部门专家认定：特仑苏OMP无健康危害》，点开一看，内容基本上如出一辙，但绝大多数开头都有【记者今天从蒙牛公司召开的新闻发布会上获悉】的字样。

　　看来蒙牛这次公关又没少下功夫，现在的记者，也越来越精了——既然事先告诉你是从蒙牛处获悉，万一有什么责任，也是蒙牛的。

　　找到卫生部的网站一看，还真有这么一篇《专家认为饮用添加OMP的牛奶不会产生健康危害》
http://www.moh.gov.cn/publicfiles/business/htmlfiles/mohwsjdj/s3594/200902/39099.htm
　　全文如下：
　　【针对近一个时期社会关注饮用内蒙古蒙牛乳业（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称蒙牛公司）生产的添加OMP的“特仑苏”牛奶是否存在安全性问题，卫生部会同工业和信息化部、农业部、商务部、工商总局、质检总局组织卫生、营养、毒理、食品、农业等方面的专家对蒙牛公司使用的OMP食用安全性进行了研讨。据称，OMP是蒙牛公司命名的商品名称，由上海统园食品技术有限公司代理从新西兰进口，作为乳品原料使用。OMP是牛奶经脱脂、膜过滤等方法获得的牛奶蛋白组分，主要成分为乳铁蛋白、乳过氧化物酶，产品具备新西兰食品安全署出具的安全证明。专家根据对OMP的来源、生产工艺、添加量、检验报告以及国际同类产品政府许可和国外使用情况，认为消费者饮用目前市场上该产品没有健康危害。
　　OMP不是我国现行国家卫生标准允许使用的食品原料。依据《食品卫生法》的规定，进口没有国家卫生标准的产品应当经过卫生部的批准。蒙牛公司进口并使用OMP没有事先申请批准，并擅自夸大宣传产品功能，违反了《食品卫生法》的有关规定。对此，蒙牛公司已经按照有关执法部门的意见停止在产品中添加OMP，并表示将按照法律规定提出申请。有关执法监管部门将进一步对该企业的违法行为作出处理。】

　　蒙牛不愧公关老手，卫生部更是太极宗师，众多老百姓又一次被轻轻的转了半圈，用北京的俗话说，就是被往沟里带。

　　大家掰哧的本来就是OMP是不是IGF-1，您怎么一个【据称】OMP是XXX就给打发啦？您怎么连提都没提IGF-1啊？【据称】？据谁称？是据蒙牛称还是不肯透露姓名的“砖家”称？要是据蒙牛称您就甭发布了，蒙牛早就念叨好多遍了。您既然是卫生部专家，您倒是给个理由先，说说OMP为什么是什么，为什么不是什么啊！您倒是说说糖油饼不加糖算不算骗人啊？

　　对蒙牛OMP牛奶成分及安全性的质疑，方舟子先生和新语丝网站两年前就开始了，但由于能看到新语丝网站的读者并不太多，蒙牛基本上没拿这当回事儿。

　　2009年2月2日，国家质检总局发函责令蒙牛公司禁止在牛奶中添加IGF-1，随着这封公函的曝光，方先生等人以前对OMP牛奶的质疑也被翻了出来，被公众重视起来，让蒙牛如临大敌，不得不回应了。

　　按蒙牛的官方说法：

　　一、OMP是IGF-1或主要成分是IGF-1

　　证据：

　　1、蒙牛申请的专利（专利号200610003551.9），其内容是向牛奶中添加IGF-1
　　2、蒙牛2009年2月10日以前公布的材料说OMP是牛奶里的一种蛋白质，分子量是7649，它的氨基酸是由70个氨基酸组成的。与IGF-1相同
　　3、蒙牛技术总监母智深等人发表的论文确地说明IGF-1是OMP的主要成分（《中国乳品工业》2008年第2期上的论文《造骨牛奶蛋白 (OMP)主要成分功效学研究进展》、《食品工业科技》2008年第1期的《补钙、骨骼健康与造骨牛奶蛋白》）

　　二、OMP是蒙牛与（国家公众健康与发展研究中心）联合开发的，又得到了北京大学医学部的合作，是蒙牛自主研发的产品。

　　证据：

　　蒙牛2009年2月10日以前发布的消息

　　三、OMP不是IGF-1或主要成分不是IGF-1 ，OMP就是国际上研究和使用多年的牛奶碱性蛋白MBP

　　证据：

　　蒙牛2009年2月10日以后发布的消息。

　　四、OMP是蒙牛与新西兰乳品研发机构 TATUA公司共用引进和研究的，蒙牛的OMP原料均从新西兰TATUA公司进口，OMP就是国际上研究和使用多年的牛奶碱性蛋白MBP，不是蒙牛自主研发的产品

　　证据：

　　蒙牛2009年2月10日以后发布的消息

　　其实，只要是头脑正常的人，都能看出：

　　一、蒙牛的说法一和三、二和四，无论从逻辑上还是从事实上，都不可能同时为真。
　　二、蒙牛2009年2月10日以前的说法绝对是不三不四（三、四是2009年2月10日后新鲜出炉的说法）。
　　三、如果说法三、四成立，蒙牛涉嫌虚假宣传，牟取暴利。
　　四、如果说法一为真，则按照蒙牛标称的OMP含量，饮用OMP牛奶存在健康风险。

　　方舟子先生和其他学者2009年2月10日以前质疑的是蒙牛的主要是：

　　一、IGF-1并不是什么蒙牛研制出的新鲜东西；
　　二、如果按照蒙牛的标称量含量，饮用含有IGF-1的特仑苏OMP牛奶会增加健康风险。
　　三、IGF-1价格不菲，蒙牛不大可能按照标称含量加入IGF-1，如果蒙牛没有添加标称含量的OMP（IGF-1），则涉嫌诈骗。

　　蒙牛2月10日以后官方回应的是：

　　【1.OMP与IGF-1是两种完全不一样的物质。
　　2.OMP就是国际上研究和使用多年的牛奶碱性蛋白MBP，其安全性受到了FDA等国际权威机构的认可。
　　内蒙古质监局实地考察后的报告明确指出，“能够证明OMP牛奶产品质量安全性和未添加IGF-1”。 】

　　可以看出，蒙牛压根儿就没有回应方舟子等人的质疑：

　　为什么蒙牛以前申请的专利、发表的论文都宣称OMP就是IGF-1或者主要成分就是IGF-1？

　　OMP为什么不是IGF-1？或者OMP的主要成分为什么不是IGF-1？

　　方先生和其他学者的质疑，是在蒙牛官方宣称OMP的主要成分就是IGF-1，和IGF-1的特性、价格已有科学的、确定的证据的情况下提出的，最起码在逻辑上是完全正确的。OMP产品要么危害健康，要么商业欺诈，蒙牛四面楚歌根本无路可走。没想到蒙牛临危之际居然大变活人，自主研发的OMP无影无踪，新西兰进口的MBP闪亮登场。只可惜IGF-1虽然想“挥一挥衣袖，不带走一片云彩”，但IGF-1和OMP已经被蒙牛和母智深们用论文、专利、宣传品三合一的强力胶一起牢牢的粘在了起蒙牛的脸上，除非连皮一块撕下来，光靠小刀估计是刮哧不干净了。

　　我家门口早点铺声明：本店出售的RAGUS豆浆贵，是因为半斤豆浆加了四两自主研发的高科技RAGUS，RAGUS的主要成分是SUGAR。等到SUGAR太多不利于健康说法出来，就转发个街道办通知，明确指出：本店豆浆不含过量SUGAR——假的骗钱，真的要命，甭管信不信，我还敢喝您家的豆浆吗？

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Ford's Fortunes In China Depend On 'Mei'

Ford's Fortunes In China Depend On 'Mei'

福特在华命运仰仗中国美眉？

MARKETING executives at Ford Motor Co. call her 'Mei,' and she is critical to the success of the U.S. auto maker's strategy in China.

福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)的营销管理人员将她称作“美”，而她对这家美国汽车公司在华战略的成功至关重要。

To Ford, Mei, which means 'beautiful' in Chinese, represents the twenty-something, college-educated single urban females who form the bull's eye in Ford's target market here for its Fiesta model. The compact hatchback is Ford's first in a planned series of cars that the company has designed to sell, with minor variations, in markets around the world.

“美”中文是“美丽”的意思。对福特而言，“美”就是20多岁，大学毕业的城市单身女性。她们是福特嘉年华(Fiesta)车型在中国目标市场的主要用户群。这款小型两厢轿车是福特计划向全球市场推出的一系列轿车中的第一款，在不同市场会略有改动。

Connecting with Mei, who earns $880 to $1,500 a month and wants her first car, and persuading her to buy a Fiesta, have become increasingly important missions for Ford, as the company tries to offset sagging sales in North America with growth overseas. By unit sales, China is the world's second-largest vehicle market after the U.S., and Ford has struggled here recently.

吸引月收入5,000至1万元、首次购车的美女购买嘉年华轿车已成为福特日益重要的任务。这家公司一直希望依靠海外的增长抵消北美地区销量的下滑。按销量计算，中国排在美国之后，是全球第二大汽车市场，不过福特近期在中国的表现不尽人意。

While overall passenger-vehicle sales in China rose nearly 7% last year, sales of Ford brand cars fell 10%, according to J.D. Power & Associates. A Ford spokeswoman said the company's sales decline was somewhat less.

J.D. Power & Associates称，尽管中国乘用车的总销量去年增长了近7%，但福特品牌轿车的销量却下降了10%。福特发言人说，该公司销售下滑有所放缓。

Ford says it plans to roll out an ad campaign for the Fiesta next month that will be aimed at Mei and her peers. It will largely bypass television and newspapers to catch them where they spend much of their time: online and reading lifestyle magazines.

福特说，它计划下个月为嘉年华推出一个广告活动，目标将对准“美”和她的同龄人。这次活动将基本回避电视和报纸，而在她们花费更多时间的网络和时尚杂志上吸引她们的眼球。

'The major communications tool will be the Internet,' says Nigel Harris, vice president of marketing and sales for Ford in China. A big focus, he says, will be social-networking sites popular with young Chinese adults. The campaign will also use cellphone text messages.

福特中国区负责营销与销售的副总裁何骏杰(Nigel Harris)说，主要的交流工具将是互联网。他说，一大重点将是深受年轻人欢迎的社交网站。这项活动还将利用手机短信。

The content of the ads, Mr. Harris says, will be 'young, bold and sexy,' aiming to be edgy 'without offending.' The idea is to attract a generation of confident, independent and optimistic women. Ads will feature attractive men and women, bright colors and hip music. A separate set of ads, focused on the Fiesta's safety features, will be aimed at Mei's parents, who would likely be involved in her car purchase, Mr. Harris says.

何骏杰说，广告的内容将“年轻，大胆和性感”，目的是前卫同时又不让人反感。这样的创意是为了吸引新一代自信、独立和乐观的女性。广告将有漂亮的男人和女人，亮丽的色彩和流行音乐。何骏杰说，还有一组独立的广告重点强调的是嘉年华的安全性能，主要是针对美女的父母，因为他们可能影响到她的购车决定。

Ford, which is working with ad agency JWT, a unit of London ad-holding company WPP, to put the final touches on the campaign, declined to be more specific about the content.

福特正在与伦敦广告控股公司WPP旗下广告公司智威汤逊(JWT)进行合作，就广告活动进行最后的接触。福特拒绝透露广告内容的更多细节。

But Ford executives say the research they did -- especially an 'immersion event,' in which senior executives spent an afternoon with a group of women representing Mei -- encouraged them to be more daring in the ads than they might have been otherwise.

但福特管理人员说，他们所做的研究鼓舞他们在广告上比原来预想的更加大胆。尤其是在公司高管同代表“美女”群体的一组女性进行了一个下午的“融入式活动”后更坚定了这种信念。

Another important conclusion: that the idea of a global car model will work. That was important for Ford's global strategy, which is built on the idea of selling car models world-wide in an effort to save on development costs and reap economies of scale in manufacturing.

另一个重要的结论是，全球性车型的想法是可行的。这对福特的全球战略至关重要。这种战略的出发点是在全球销售同一车型，以达到节约研发成本和取得制造规模效应的效果。

The Chinese market still holds many mysteries for auto makers. Many Chinese buyers are purchasing their first car, and lack the knowledge necessary to choose based on performance and technical specifications. Most have yet to develop loyalty to any one brand.

对汽车制造商而言，中国市场仍然有很多谜团有待破解。许多中国人都是第一次购买轿车，缺乏根据性能和技术指标做出选择的必要知识。大部分人尚未形成对任何一个品牌的忠诚度。

Ford's immersion event was designed to put senior Ford and JWT executives in direct contact with their desired customers. They spent an afternoon with 15 twenty-something women in Beijing, watching them shop and looking for clues about their lives, attitudes and aspirations.

福特的“融入式活动”旨在让福特和智威汤逊的高级管理人员与他们的目标客户直接接触。他们在北京同15名20多岁的女性一起度过了一个下午，观察她们购物，寻找有关她们生活、态度和理想的蛛丝马迹。

The women in the group were style-conscious and outspoken. Tina Fan, who works for a Japanese conglomerate in Beijing, wore a cropped black velvet jacket, black stockings and high-heeled silk shoes. She said she believes she has 'unlimited potential,' and hopes to be running her own business in five years. 'I think I can handle all the issues in my life by myself,' she says.

这些女性注重时尚，坦率直言。Tina Fan在驻京一家日本企业工作，身穿黑色短天鹅绒外套、黑丝袜和高跟丝绸鞋。她说，她认为自己有“无限的潜力”，希望能在五年内开设自己的公司。她说，我想我能够自己处理生活中的所有问题。

The women pointed to a mix of fashion influences, some very adult, others more adolescent. Grace Ding, an accountant, brought along pictures that she said illustrated her fashion sense -- images of a Bur-berry handbag, Chanel shoes and Bathing Ape accessories.

这些女性受到了不同时尚的影响，其中有些很老成，有些则更为青春。会计师Grace Ding带着能够说明她的时尚感的照片──Burberry手袋、香奈儿鞋和Bathing Ape饰品。

All the women spoke of spending copious time on the Internet. Ms. Fan estimated that she's online 12 hours a day and says that Web sites are her 'main source of information and inspiration.' She says she is more likely to communicate with office mates through instant messenger than face-to-face.

这些女性每天都有大量时间呆在网上。Tina Fan估计她每天上网大概有12小时。她说，网站是她“信息和灵感的主要来源”。她说，她很可能与办公室同事通过即时通讯而非面对面进行沟通。

Bessie Wu, a travel agent from Yunnan in southwestern China, says, 'I like to show off, to really let my hair down and dance.' Ms. Wu, who says she is a free spirit who would one day like to live abroad, added: 'I don't have a problem wearing revealing outfits. If someone says I'm sexy, I think it's a compliment.'

来自云南省的导游Bessie Wu说，她喜欢炫耀，让一头长发倾泻下来，随风飘舞。她说自己的思想自由，希望有一天能到国外生活。她还说，我不会在意穿着暴露的衣服。如果有人说我很性感，我认为这是一种恭维。

Some of the executives who participated in the event, mostly older men, held up images from magazines that they thought would appeal to the women. A Tiffany ad for diamonds and a photo of Gucci watches won approval. A picture of a slinky purple-and-turquoise dress elicited a unanimous response: 'Too old looking.'

参加这一活动的管理人员大多是岁数较大的男性，其中一些人拿着自认为能够吸引这些女性的杂志中的图片。蒂芙尼(Tiffany)的钻石广告和古驰(Gucci)手表的照片赢得了首肯。一套飘逸的紫绿色外衣的照片则引来了一致的反应：“太老气了”。

During the shopping trip, the women showed special interest in short shorts and an Adidas jacket with gold lame trim. But they took a dim view of a large photograph in a French Connection UK store that showed a man and a woman, hips pressed together and almost kissing. 'That doesn't look good,' one said.

在购物过程中，她们对超短裤和阿迪达斯(Adidas)一款金色金属片装饰的夹克衫表现出了特殊的兴趣。但她们对French Connection UK商店中的一幅大照片并不欣赏，这张照片中一男一女臀部贴在一起，正准备接吻。其中一人说，这并不好看。

Some conclusions from Ford's research were quite specific: Chinese consumers want more options than their European counterparts. 'It's a way to personalize the vehicle,' says Thomas Brewer, Ford's Asia regional vice president for marketing, sales and service. In China, Ford will offer four color combinations on the Fiesta, compared with two in Europe.

福特得出的一些研究结果相当具体：中国消费者比欧洲消费者需要更多的选配项。福特亚洲区的营销，销售和服务副总裁托马斯·布鲁尔(Thomas Brewer)说，这是实现车辆个性化的一种方式。在中国，福特对嘉年华将提供四种颜色的组合，而在欧洲只有两种。

Mr. Brewer says the session with the young women established a personal touchstone for the Ford executives who participated, which he says helped keep them focused in their decision-making as work on the marketing campaign has progressed. '

布鲁尔说，与这些年轻女性的活动也为参加活动的福特高管建立了个人标准。他说，这有助于让他们在营销活动取得进展的情况下将重心放在决策上。

It's helped us zero in and make some tough decisions we might not have made otherwise' to push the envelope toward a more brash and sexy approach, he says. Some material the executives felt uncomfortable with 'was very natural' for the women, he says. 'It doesn't scare them as it might some people in other markets.'

他说，这有助于我们找出重点，并做出一些本未考虑的艰难的决定，尽力向更大胆性感的方向发展。他说，让管理人员感到不舒服的一些东西在这些女性看来却非常自然。这些东西没有像在其它市场那样令消费者畏惧。

Gordon Fairclough

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090210/ffe153954.asp

中国汽车销量超过美国 行业将进入整合期

China's Auto Industry To Consolidate

中国汽车销量超过美国 行业将进入整合期

Sales in China's intensely competitive auto industry exceeded the U.S. for the first time last month. But even as the industry gains a higher global profile, it is about to get leaner -- and potentially less splintered.

中国汽车销量上个月首度超过美国。不过，就在竞争激烈的中国汽车业获得更高全球地位之际，它也面临着“瘦身”的命运，并且其分散的局面也可能被改变。

Chinese consumers bought 790,000 vehicles in January, according to General Motors Corp. In the U.S., total car and light-truck sales were just under 657,000 that month, according to Autodata Corp.

通用汽车(General Motors)的数据显示，1月份中国消费者购买了79万辆车。据Autodata Corp.的数据，美国当月小型汽车和轻型卡车的总销量略低于65.7万辆。

Like the U.S. in the early 1900s, China has dozens of small but spirited car makers that grew out of the country's burgeoning sales growth last decade. They were welcomed as local engines of economic growth. Now, many are struggling amid a worsening slump. Their difficulties mean short-term pain for China's economy but consolidation could result in a more streamlined industry that is better positioned to take on bigger, foreign rivals.

与20世纪初的美国类似，现在的中国有着数十家规模较小、但生机勃勃的汽车制造商，它们都是十年来得益于中国汽车销售的迅猛增长而发展壮大起来的。这些小企业因被视为推动地方经济增长的引擎而备受欢迎。而如今，其中很多企业却在不断加剧的经济低迷中疲于挣扎。它们面临的困难意味着中国经济要承受一阵子的短痛，但是这些企业的整合却可能为中国打造出一个更加精简的汽车业，让它们在与大型外国竞争对手的抗衡中处于更有利的地位。

A year ago, Shuanghuan Automobile Co. was a small but fast-growing car maker with plans to expand overseas. Now, after falling nearly 40% short of its unit-sales target for 2008, the company is cutting workers and worried that it might not survive. 'If we could survive, that would be the best thing we could achieve this year,' Cheng Bin, vice president of Shuanghuan, said, sipping hot tea at the company's headquarters here, with its heat turned off to save costs.

一年前，石家庄双环汽车有限公司还是一家规模较小、但增长迅速的汽车企业，还有向海外扩张的计划。如今，双环汽车2008年销售量目标有近40%没有完成，公司正着手裁员，担心自己可能难以撑下去。公司副总裁程滨（音）说，如果我们能撑过此劫，那就是我们今年可能实现的最大成就。在石家庄双环汽车总部，他小口喝着热茶──为了节约成本，公司关掉了暖气。

The weeding out of companies like Shuanghuan could in the short term benefit big foreign auto makers such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Volkswagen AG by reducing competition in the world's second-largest car market after the U.S. Upstart auto makers have put enormous downward pressure on retail prices for cars in China, hurting foreign players' profitability.

双环汽车这样的公司被淘汰掉，可能会减少在中国这个仅次于美国的世界第二大汽车市场上的竞争，进而可能在短期内对丰田汽车(Toyota Motor)和大众汽车(Volkswagen AG)这样的大型外国汽车制造商有利。新兴汽车企业对中国汽车市场的零售价带来了巨大的下行压力，影响了外国厂商的盈利能力。

But a consolidation also could benefit China's bigger auto makers, such as Chery Automobile Co. and BYD Co., whose advancement has been hampered by cutthroat competition in the notoriously fragmented market. China's central government has long said it wants to see consolidation in the auto industry, to create a handful of home-grown national champions. Consolidation is 'good for the industry,' said Citi Investment Research analyst Gerwin Ho in Hong Kong.

不过行业整合也可能会有利于奇瑞汽车有限公司和比亚迪股份有限公司等较大型中国汽车厂商，因为在中国这个分散度出了名的市场，这些企业的发展一直受到激烈竞争的阻碍。中国中央政府早就表示，希望看到汽车业的整合，以创建一批本国的汽车巨头。花旗投资研究(Citi Investment Research)驻香港分析师Gerwin Ho说，整合对汽车业有好处。

During the market's boom years, which ran for nearly a decade starting in the late 1990s, car makers mushroomed in China. City and provincial governments, seeing the chance to woo prestigious industries that employed large numbers, chipped in funds or policy support.

上世纪90年代末开始的近10年的市场蓬勃发展时期，汽车厂商在中国如雨后春笋般出现。各省市政府看到这个扶植知名产业、提供大量就业岗位的良机，纷纷在资金或政策上加以支持。

Today, more than 80 producers of all sizes vie for small slices of the market, many of them selling what foreign auto executives regard as knockoffs of their cars.

今天，有80多家各种规模的厂商都在争取从这个市场上分得一块，其中很多企业销售被外国汽车高管视为仿制品的车型。

Those small companies thrived because of the high rate of growth in passenger-car sales, sometimes above 20% a year in the past decade. But sales began sliding in August. Unit sales fell 12% in December from a year earlier. For all of 2008, unit growth was just 7%, and this year will likely fall further: Some analysts are predicting no growth or even a modest contraction.

这些小企业蓬勃发展起来，原因是轿车销售的高速增长，过去10年来有些年份的年增速甚至超过了20%。不过从去年8月起销售量开始下滑。12月的销售量较上年同期下降了12%。2008年全年销售量增幅只有7%，今年很可能会进一步下滑，一些分析师预计销售量不会出现增长，甚至会出现小幅收缩。

Many smaller upstarts in China are low-cost producers, but their inexpensive cars lack the quality, performance and safety of those designed by established global auto makers. A subcompact car by Great Wall Motor Co., called the Florid, for instance, sells for as little as 53,900 yuan, or about $7,880. A comparably equipped Toyota Yaris costs more than 50% more, at 84,700 yuan, although Toyota dealers recently offered discounts to boost the car's sales.

中国很多新兴小型汽车厂商成本较低，不过它们价格低廉的汽车缺乏老牌全球汽车厂商设计汽车的质量、性能和安全性。比如，长城汽车股份有限公司生产的“炫丽”微型汽车价格只有人民币53,900元（合7,880美元）。配置类似的丰田“雅力士”价格为人民币84,700元，比“炫丽”高一半多，不过丰田的经销商最近推出折扣价来刺激汽车销售。

Many smaller Chinese makers achieve low prices by skipping research and development. Their planners come up with product ideas but farm out most engineering jobs. They assemble cars as if they are Lego sets, with purchased engines, transmissions and parts.

中国很多小型汽车厂商通过跳过研发环节实现低价格。它们的的策划者设计出产品，不过却把大部分工程工作承包出去。他们像拼装组合玩具一样组装汽车，用买来的发动机、传动系统和零部件进行组装。

Analysts warn that the speed and scope of any consolidation may be limited because local governments that own some of these smaller companies might try to bail them out.

分析人士警告说，由于拥有其中一些小企业的地方政府可能试图向其提供救助，任何整合的速度和规模都可能会受到限制。

Still, signs of pain already are emerging. Great Wall Motor, in the city of Baoding near Beijing, increased car and light-truck sales 5% last year to 125,000 vehicles but fell far short of its goal of 200,000, despite aggressive price cuts. It has trimmed 10% of its 23,000 employees. Jiangling Auto Group Co. in the southeastern city of Nanchang, saw its sales plunge 36% last year to 10,500 vehicles.

不过，疼痛的迹象已经开始显露出来。总部位于保定的长城汽车去年小型汽车和轻型卡车的销量为12.5万辆，增长了5%，但仍远远没有达到20万辆的销售目标，尽管公司进行了大幅降价。公司已经裁减了2.3万名员工中的10%。南昌的江陵汽车股份有限公司去年销量为1.05万辆，下滑了36%。

Shuanghuan, based in Shijiazhuang, about 185 miles southwest of Beijing, has laid off 8% of its work force of 2,000. Mr. Cheng, its No. 2 executive, said the company is trying to shore up its business by cultivating demand for its cars in overseas markets that are less affected by the global economic crisis, such as Ghana and other West African countries.

总部位于石家庄的双环汽车已将裁掉了2,000名员工中的8%。公司第二把手程滨说，公司正努力在加纳等西非国家这类受到全球经济危机影响较小的海外市场培育需求，希望藉此提振业务。

China's central government, while wanting consolidation, is concerned about the damage that shrinking car sales could do to an already weakened economy. This month, it halved the sales-tax rate on smaller cars to 5% for the rest of 2009, and cut retail prices for gasoline and diesel.

中国中央政府虽然希望汽车业整合，但也担心汽车销量下滑可能对已经疲弱的经济造成损害。政府上个月宣布，2009年底前小型汽车消费税率减半征收（至5%），并下调了汽油和柴油的零售价。

Norihiko Shirouzu

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090205/ffe103947.asp