GMAC面临新难题

GMAC's Other Headache

2008年06月26日17:02

汽车贷款业务曾经是通用汽车金融服务公司(General Motors Acceptance Corporation, 简称GMAC)的一个亮点。现在，这块业务也黯然失色了。

The one bright spot for GMAC used to be its auto-loan business. Now, that, too, is dimming.

这家贷款机构的房屋贷款部门状况不佳，存在着抵押贷款壤帐等种种问题，而现在又面临极度耗油的敞蓬小货车和运动型多用途汽车(SUV)价格下跌的危机，真是雪上加霜。

Declining values of gasoline-guzzling pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles are looming over the lender, adding to its existing problems with souring mortgages through its ailing home-loan unit. This leaves GMAC in worse shape than rival Ford Motor Credit.

GMAC也不太可能指望通用汽车公司(GM)帮忙。这家汽车生产商正疲于应对敞蓬小货车和SUV销量急剧下滑的状况，已于周一宣布减产。2006年，以私人资本运营集团Cerberus Capital Management LP为首的一个财团以140亿美元收购了GMAC 51%的股份，此后通用汽车拥有GMAC 49%的股份。Cerberus Capital Management LP是克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)的母公司。

And it is unlikely GMAC can look to General Motors Corp. for help. The auto maker, struggling to cope with a steep decline in sales of pickups and SUVs, announced production cuts Monday. The company has a 49% stake in GMAC after a consortium led by private-equity group Cerberus Capital Management LP, parent of Chrysler LLC, bought 51% of GMAC in 2006 for about $14 billion.

为了向购买通用汽车的人提供资金而于1919年建立的GMAC去年在新车及二手车贷款业务中收入508亿美元。这家曾在经济低迷时期以稳定的利润支撑了GM的贷款机构向陷入困境的抵押贷款子公司Residential Capital LLC注入数十亿美元，由此大伤元气。GMAC宣布今年第一季度净亏损5.89亿美元，而上年同期亏损3.05亿美元。

GMAC, set up in 1919 to provide financing to buyers of GM vehicles, made $50.8 billion in loans for new and used vehicles last year. The lender, which once propped up GM with steady profit during economic downturns, has been weakened by the billions of dollars it pumped into its struggling mortgage subsidiary, Residential Capital LLC. GMAC posted a net loss of $589 million in the first quarter, compared with a loss of $305 million a year earlier.

除此之外，时值汽油价格高达每加仑4美元之际，在GM的产品线中占据可观比例的敞蓬小货车和SUV需求不断下跌也会进一步给GMAC带来损失。二手车市场上的高油耗汽车价格已经剧跌。随着租约到期以及从无力继续偿还车贷的车主手中收回车辆，GMAC积压了大量高油耗汽车。

In addition, falling demand for pickup trucks and SUVs, which make up a sizable chunk of GM's production mix, amid $4-a-gallon gasoline, should further hurt GMAC. The value of gas guzzlers has dropped sharply in the used-car market. GMAC is saddled with inventories of thousands of these vehicles as they come off leases or are repossessed from owners unable to keep up with payments.

通常情况下，GMAC会在租赁期满时收回车辆，并根据估计的价格将这些车辆打折出售给经销商。据二手车批发拍卖公司Manheim的数据，今年5月，货车和SUV的拍卖价格比上年同期下跌了逾20%。

Typically, GMAC takes back vehicles at the end of leases and sells them to dealers at discounted prices based on estimated values. On average, auction prices on trucks and SUVs fell by more than 20% in May compared with year-earlier prices, according to data from Manheim, a wholesale auction company for used cars.

GMAC的发言人说：“GMAC密切关注着市场状况。”

'GMAC is monitoring the market conditions closely,' a GMAC spokeswoman says.

Cerberus的一位代表说，GMAC的管理层正在努力改善公司的资产负债状况，走出现在这种空前的经济困境，让公司将来能占据更好的地位。

A representative of Cerberus said GMAC's management is 'working hard to strengthen the balance sheet and emerge from this unprecedented economic environment better positioned for the future.'

随着货车和SUV车主所欠车款超出车辆的实际价值，GMAC还面临着贷款拖欠率日渐上升、车辆收回的数量越来越多的问题。

GMAC also faces rising delinquencies in loan payments and increasing numbers of repossessions as owners of pickups and SUVs owe more on the vehicles than they are worth.

另一重忧虑是GMAC居高不下的资产负债比率。据穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service)计算，GMAC的借款为其净值的23倍。而竞争对手Ford Credit的借款为其净值的11倍。

Another worry is GMAC's high level of borrowings compared with its equity cushion. One measure of GMAC's leverage ratio, as calculated by Moody's Investors Service, shows that the company has 23 times its net worth in borrowings. Ford Credit has 11 times its net worth.

穆迪的债务分析师马克?威斯登(Mark Wasden)说，GMAC的杠杆规模太大，这对它的信贷状况有负面影响。

GMAC's leverage 'is an aggressive measure and has negatively impacted GMAC's credit standing,' says Mark Wasden, a debt analyst at Moody's.

GMAC手头拥有充足的现金结余：148.4亿美元，但幅度超出预期的剩余价值下滑意味着GMAC无法在这次经济低迷期充当勇救GM的白马王子。

GMAC has a hefty cash balance of $14.84 billion on hand, but steeper-than-expected declines in residual values mean GMAC won't ride to GM's rescue during this downturn.

历史教训：巴克莱堪比花旗？

History Lesson: Barclays Like Citi?

巴克莱集团(Barclays PLC)的处境有点像1991年的花旗集团(Citigroup)，当时一位沙特王子和一名私人银行客户注资挽救了这家美国银行。

Barclays PLC's situation looks a bit like that of Citigroup in 1991, when a Saudi prince and a private-banking client put in capital to rescue the U.S. bank.

巴克莱的股东需要确保他们的银行不会重复花旗后来犯下的错误。

Barclays's shareholders need reassuring that their bank won't repeat Citigroup's subsequent mistakes.

巴克莱将筹资45亿英镑（合88.6亿美元）以充实资本金，其中很大一部分来自卡塔尔投资局(Qatar Investment Authority)。问题在于，巴克莱会拿这笔钱做什么。

Barclays is raising GBP 4.5 billion ($8.86 billion) to shore up its core equity ratios, with a large chunk coming from Qatar Investment Authority, among others. The question is what will Barclays do with the new money.

此次增资后，巴克莱的一级资本充足率将提高到8.8%，而从它对这桩交易的评价看，它从配置资金上获得的收益将超出整个集团10.5%的资金成本。它还将在美国资本市场及英国抵押贷款市场等重要领域赢得市场份额。

Its Tier 1 capital rises to 8.8%, and judging by its comments on current trading, it is able to generate returns on deployed capital more than its 10.5% cost of capital throughout the group. It also is gaining market share in some key areas, such as U.S. capital markets and U.K. mortgages.

花旗的教训值得回顾。在获救之后，利润有所回升，花旗展开了毫无节制的收购行动。不久，花旗就失去了理智，将宝贵的资产随意乱投，而不考虑长期的回报。

Citigroup's experience is worth recalling. After the rescue, profits returned and Citi went on a buying spree. Soon after, the bank lost the plot, with precious equity thrown around without much respect for long-term returns.

有人认为花旗是为了达到某些华尔街人士不现实的短期预期而陷入困境的，对于同意这一看法的人而言，巴克莱首席执行长约翰?瓦利(John Varley)要汲取的教训就是避免同样的压力。

For those sympathetic with the view that Citigroup was undone by trying to meet the unrealistic short-term expectations of some on Wall Street, the lesson for Barclays Chief Executive John Varley is to avoid the same pressure.

令投资者感到安慰的是，瓦利成功避免了他许多同侪所遭遇的次债过高问题。而瓦利及巴克莱其他一些管理者周三暗示说巴克莱在考虑并购事宜，这又让投资者惴惴不安。

Comforting for investors is Mr. Varley's success in skirting the worst subprime-related excesses of many of his contemporaries. Less so is the fact that Mr. Varley and his colleagues indicated Wednesday that Barclays has acquisitions in mind.

巴克莱必须重点关注新股东的潜力，而非进行什么交易。利用新股东的销售能力、推销定制金融产品应该是优先考虑的事情。

Rather than deal making, Barclays must focus on the potential of its new investors. Harnessing their distribution capabilities and pushing tailored financial products should be a priority.

Aparajita Saha-Bubna

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080626/hrd171002.asp

美航新规或引发行李箱之争

A Battle Looms For Airlines' Overhead Bins

2008年06月26日13:48

有关随身携带行李的新政策马上就要在美国各大机场付诸实施了。

The carry-on-baggage police will soon be out in force at airports.

美利坚航空(American Airlines)，联合航空(United Airlines)和US Airways准备对所有托运行李进行收费，其中第一件行李往返收费30美元，第二件行李收费50美元，同时他们还准备严格实施目前普遍受到漠视的对随身携带行李的限制，以将航班延误和登机干扰减至最低水平。航空公司与乘客之间的斗争还将继续，乘客将面临行李新规的烦扰，给他们本来就劳累的旅途增添更多不快。

As American, United and US Airways prepare to start collecting fees on every piece of checked luggage, including $30 round trip to check one bag and an additional $50 round trip to check a second, they are also getting ready to strictly enforce limits on carry-on baggage -- which are commonly flouted -- in hopes of minimizing delays and disruption as flights board. Battles with customers likely will ensue, and fliers will be peppered with baggage-rule announcements, adding more aggravation to the already trying travel experience.

AMR Corp.旗下的美利坚航空和UAL Corp.旗下的联合航空将在机场安检入口处安排员工或者雇佣合同工，负责阻挡违反有关随身携带行李规定的乘客。根据新规定，每位乘客只能携带一件能放进头顶行李箱中的箱包，以及一件诸如手袋或者公文包之类的“个人物品”。这可能会减慢乘客通过安检的速度，而在机场办理登机手续柜台收取额外费用可能会延长乘客等待的时间。登机的速度可能也会放慢，为了避免收费，乘客通常会增加手提行李的容量，提前抵达登机口，以便找到足够的摆放行李的空间，航空公司无疑将面临更大的压力。

AMR Corp.'s American and UAL Corp.'s United will station airline employees or hired contract workers at entrances to security screening lanes to intercept customers exceeding the carry-on limit of one bag small enough to fit in an overhead bin and one 'personal item' like a purse or briefcase. That could slow passengers trying to get through security, and collecting the fee at ticket counters and airport curbs could make lines longer. Boarding airplanes could be slower, too, with heightened stress as customers maximize carry-ons to avoid fees and then push to board early enough to find space in overhead cabin bins.

美利坚航空准备积极实施随身携带行李政策，一旦他们发现有乘客行李超规，就会毫不留情地阻止乘客登机。他们还准备在登机口和飞机上增强对行李规定的宣传。联合航空表示，该公司仍在制定计划，但可能尝试在完全预订航班登机开始之前，针对较晚登机的乘客在机舱门口就地检查他们的行李。

American plans to more aggressively pull customers aside at boarding gates if the airline thinks they have too much carry-on baggage, as well as step up announcements about size limits in gate areas and on airplanes. United says it is still formulating its plans, but may try to gate-check bags for customers in later boarding groups before boarding begins for fully booked flights.

三大航空公司均表示可能会再次引入金属模板架，在X光机前比对行李尺寸，防止超大行李通过。该政策在过去曾经引发乘客的诸多不满，2001年美国遭受恐怖袭击后，美国交通安全管理局(Transportation Security Administration，简称TSA)掌控了安检程序，该政策也就随之废止了。

All three airlines say it's possible that metal templates -- which prevent larger bags from making it through X-ray machines -- will be reintroduced. That's a tactic that angered many customers in the past and was eliminated when the Transportation Security Administration took control of screening after the 2001 terrorist attacks.

美利坚航空负责机场服务规划的高级副总裁马克?杜邦(Mark Dupont)表示，这是我们以前研究过的措施，如今可能会重新出台。

'It's something we've looked at in the past and may look at again,' says Mark Dupont, American's senior vice president of airport services planning.

联合航空的高级副总裁斯科特?杜兰(Scott Dolan)表示，该公司希望重新使用金属模板架。US Airways Group Inc.的总裁斯科特?科比(Scott Kirby)称，有些机场可能会重新使用金属模板架。虽然安检处仍由TSA控制，但是航空公司可以对联邦机构施加压力，如果某个安检处只负责安检一家航空公司、或者几家使用同样模板的航空公司的话，就应当允许行李模板的使用。

United is in favor of bringing back templates, says Senior Vice President Scott Dolan, and US Airways Group Inc. President Scott Kirby says a return of baggage templates is 'likely' at some airports. While security checkpoints are controlled by the TSA, airlines can pressure the federal agency to allow templates if a checkpoint serves a single airline, or several airlines with the same policy on templates.

TSA表示，目前正在“密切关注”事态的发展，如果出现乘客普遍从托运行李转向随手携带行李的趋势，该机构可能会重新安排员工。TSA发言人克里斯托弗?怀特(Christopher White)表示，该机构尚未接到任何有关重新设置金属模板的请求。此类请求可能很难获得批准。怀特称，严格实施行李限制属于航空公司的职能范畴，而TSA关注的是安全。

The TSA says it is 'closely monitoring' the situation and could move staff if there's a broad shift from checked bags to carry-ons. TSA spokesman Christopher White says the agency hasn't yet received any requests to reinstall templates. It could be a hard sell. 'Strictly enforcing baggage limitations is an airline function,' says Mr. White. 'TSA is focused on security.'

US Airways表示将增加员工应对办理登机手续柜台增加的工作量，但是随着乘客逐步适应新规，调整并减少托运行李，这个问题应当会得到解决。不过，航空公司还有另外一方面的顾虑：随着乘客增加随身携带行李，如果头顶行李箱在在起飞时装满，货舱已经达到最大行李装载量的航班可能没有地方容纳更多的行李。

US Airways says it will add staff to help with increased transaction time at ticket counters, but as customers adjust and check fewer bags, the problem should dissipate. One area of concern: With more carry-on bags, some flights that already have the maximum number of bags loaded in cargo holds may have nowhere to put more bags if overhead bins fill up at departure time.

科比表示，随身携带行李的政策肯定会付诸实施。该公司确实希望新的收费政策能够促使乘客携带较少的行李。

'Carry-on rules will be enforced,' Mr. Kirby says. The airline does hope the new fee will result in customers packing lighter.

行李限制将在一定程度上降低航空公司的燃油成本，原因是飞机载重越大，其耗油量越大。US Airways表示，目前，该公司每位往返票乘客的平均燃油成本（包括国际航班）为299美元，而公司往返航班的平均票价不到500美元。

Less luggage will reduce airlines' fuel bills a bit since the heavier planes are, the more fuel they burn. US Airways says its fuel costs per passenger, including international flights, now average $299 on a round-trip ticket, in line with estimates compiled in last week's Middle Seat column. Its average round-trip fare is under $500, US Airways says.

US Airways首席执行长道格拉斯?帕克(Douglas Parker)表示，这种局面使航空公司别无选择，只能加收行李托运费。他说，该公司认为新政策是合适的，也是必需的。帕克表示，除非US Airways发现乘客不再选择加收首件行李托运费的航空公司，否则他们会坚持实施收费政策。更有可能出现的结果是，乘客会改变行李打包的习惯──减少托运行李，增加随身携带行李，而不是改换航空公司。

That leaves the airline little choice but to impose fees, says US Airways Chief Executive Douglas Parker. 'We think that it's a change that is appropriate and required,' he says. The fee will stick unless US Airways finds consumers won't fly an airline with a first-bag fee, Mr. Parker says. A more likely outcome is that rather than change airlines, travelers will change how they pack -- toting less on trips and stuffing as much as they can into carry-on cases.

除此之外，航空公司还有一个节约成本的举措：从8月份开始，US Airways的航班将不再提供免费苏打水。咖啡、瓶装水及软饮料将收取2美元；酒精饮料的价格将由原来的5美元提高到7美元。

Another cost-saving change: US Airways is ending free sodas on its flights beginning in August. Coffee, bottled water and soft drinks will cost $2; alcoholic drinks will be raised to $7 from $5.

对于许多乘客来说，新收费政策带来的最大麻烦无疑是他们必须争夺机上行李箱的空间。为了确保自己能够找到位置，一些乘客已经开始插队，造成登机队伍的混乱。乘客不得不费劲将大件行李塞入小行李箱中，而一旦行李箱满载，乘务员常常还得将行李抬下飞机，托运到目的地。所有这一切都有可能变得更糟，虽然航空公司表示，如果乘客无法为合规的随身携带行李找到摆放空间，他们不会就地收费。

For many travelers, the most odious aspect of the baggage fee is the anticipated battle for overhead-bin space. To make sure they can find room, some customers already push their way through boarding queues. Passengers struggle to stuff large bags into small bins, and flight attendants often find themselves taking bags off planes and checking them to their destinations once bins fill up. All this will likely get worse, though the airlines say that the new fee won't be collected in airplane cabins from customers who can't find space for their allowed carry-on bags.

行李箱之争会导致航班延误、让乘客不满。来自波士顿的乘客迈克尔?帕特诺德(Michael Patnode)便对新的收费政策非常不满，他说，“这只会促使乘客将他们所有能够随身携带的东西都一股脑地拖到机舱里。”他倒是愿意接受一个更加现实的票价。他说，任何收费低于成本的企业都应该会破产，很明显，航空公司已经将成本削减到了令其产品完全丧失吸引力的地步。

Bin battles can delay flights and leave customers frustrated. 'This fee will just cause many people to drag all their worldly possessions into the cabin,' says Michael Patnode, an American customer from Boston angered by the new fee. He'd prefer more-realistic fares instead. 'Any business that charges less than its costs deserves to go bankrupt, and it's clear the airlines have cut their costs to the point that the product is completely unappealing,' he says.

美利坚航空的杜邦说，该公司首次宣布将加收行李托运费后，来自乘客的反应一直集中在对机场手续和登机过程的顾虑上。美利坚航空表示，准备直面应对这些变化，并希望不会出现瓶颈问题。

American's Mr. Dupont says much of the response his airline has received from customers after first announcing the fee has centered on concerns about the airport and boarding experience. American says it is prepared to deal with the changes and hopes bottlenecks won't be created.

几个月以来，美利坚航空的托运工作一直不尽人意。今年前4个月，美利坚航空的行李可靠度是各大航空公司中最差的，每141名乘客至少会有一件行李遭到不当处理，其准时可靠度也是所有美国航空公司中最低的。2007年，在美国各大航空公司的准时性指标上，只有US Airways比美利坚航空更糟糕。

The airline's baggage operation has struggled for many months. Through the first four months of this year, American has been worst among major airlines in baggage reliability, mishandling at least one bag for every 141 passengers, and worst among all U.S. airlines in on-time dependability. In 2007, only US Airways was worse than American among major carriers in the on-time category.

美利坚航空针对第一件行李收取的托运费适用于美国和加拿大的所有航班，正式生效针对6月22日及以后购买的机票。美利坚航空表示，此举每年将影响到超过2400万乘客，大约是国内乘客数量的三分之一。（约有一半的乘客不托运行李。）新政策不适用于头等舱和商务舱乘客，也不适用于需要转乘国际航班和现役军人乘客。

American's first-bag fee, which applies to travel in the U.S. and Canada, went into effect for tickets bought Sunday or later. American says it will affect more than 24 million fliers annually, or roughly one-third of domestic passengers. (About half of its customers don't check bags.) Elite-level frequent fliers or people buying full-fare coach tickets or first-class tickets are exempt, as are passengers connecting to international flights and active-duty military personnel.

新规定非常复杂，即便是杜邦自己在被问及新政策如何适用于所谓的代码共享安排时，他也需要核实一番才能回答。所谓代码共享安排是指一家航空公司将另外一家航空公司的座位当作自己的座位出售给乘客。 (新规定适用于乘客乘坐的第一个航班，无论是哪家航空公司出售的机票。)

The rules are complicated -- even Mr. Dupont had to check when asked on how the fee applied to so-called code-share arrangements, when one airline sells another's seats as its own. (The rules of the first airline you fly apply, regardless of which airline sold you the ticket.)

总之，通过增收行李托运费，美利坚航空每年将增加3.5亿美元以上的收入。不过，比起飙升的油价而言，这对公司的补贴不过是杯水车薪。该公司预计今年的燃油成本将比2007年增加26亿美元。美利坚航空称，该公司一直未能有效提高票价以抵消成本上升的影响，因此决定增收行李托运费。

All told, American will increase revenue by more than $350 million annually with the fee. That's a small drop in the oil barrel, since it expects to pay $2.6 billion more for fuel this year than in 2007, but the carrier says it hasn't been able to raise fares enough to cover its costs, so it's instituting new fees.

美利坚航空表示，该公司的机场柜台将接受信用卡付款，希望以此尽量减少对乘客办理登机手续的影响。行李搬运人员也将获准收取行李托运费，并不再收取2美元的就地行李托运费。

American says it hopes to minimize the impact on check-in lines at airports by making its kiosks able to collect fees with a credit-card swipe. Skycaps, too, will be able to collect baggage fees, and the $2 fee to check bags curbside with a skycap will be dropped.

上周晚些时候，继美利坚航空之后，联合航空和US Airways双双宣布将增收行李托运费。尽管如此，至少到目前为止，其它航空公司对此还是持抵制态度。不过，这种局面随时都可能改变，尤其是如果竞争对手发现乘客按照规定支付行李托运费，而机票销售并未出现下降的话。不过，一些航空公司可能将增收行李托运费视为一个区别服务的契机，尤其在目前美国各个航空公司服务相差无几的情况下。

While United and US Airways both matched American's first-bag fee late last week, other airlines have resisted, at least so far. That could change any day, especially if competitors see customers paying the fee with no drop in ticket sales. But some carriers may see the first-bag fee as an opportunity to differentiate service at a time when it's hard to distinguish between U.S. airlines.

比如，911恐怖袭击事件后，其它航空公司纷纷开始对机上三明治和零食进行收费，只有大陆航空(Continental Airlines Inc.)继续供应免费餐食，以此树立独特的业界形像。大陆航空也宣布将针对第二件行李收费50美元的往返行李托运费，但尚未针对第一件行李收费。该公司的发言人拒绝就行李托运费发表评论。

Continental Airlines Inc., for example, tried to set itself apart from the pack by continuing to serve meals on flights after 2001 when other airlines were switching to buy-on-board sandwiches and snacks. Continental did match the $50 round-trip fee for checking a second piece of luggage, but not the first-bag fee yet. A spokesman declined to comment on baggage fees.

达美航空(Delta Air Lines Inc.)上周表示，该公司尚未有针对第一件行李收托运费的计划。达美航空发言人贝西?塔尔顿(Betsy Talton)称，此举将不利于乘客，而如果乘客试图将所有行李搬上飞机的话，也将增加航空公司的运营难度。

Delta Air Lines Inc. last week said it didn't plan on charging for the first bag. 'This would not be good for customers, and it could be operationally difficult as customers try to bring all of their luggage onto the aircraft,' says spokeswoman Betsy Talton.

关于这一点，许多乘客都表示认同。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080626/ffe120835.asp

销售下滑迫使通用汽车减产促销

2008年6月24日 06:59

为解决大型车销售下滑的问题，通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)周一宣布，将在下半年把皮卡和运动型多用途车(SUV)的产量削减17万辆，并推出更多促销措施以清理过高的库存。

通用汽车将把轿车和酷越车(crossover)的产量提高4.7万辆。与此同时，在收入压力影响下，通用汽车表示，将把2009年款车型价格平均提高3.5%，以弥补产品升级和商品价格上涨所带来的成本。

通用汽车周一表示，将把其在美国的六家汽车装配工厂的夏季停工时间延长，从7月份到今年年底，这些工厂的停工时间将延长一周至10周不等。

与此同时，由于市场对小型车的需求上升，通用汽车将增加轿车和酷越车工厂的生产班次。

通用汽车周一表示，已聘请花旗银行(Citibank)担任出售悍马(Hummar)事宜的顾问公司。

通用汽车周一表示，通用汽车将对八个品牌车型展开促销活动，消费者可以获得最多72个月的免息期。通用汽车经销商周一表示，顾客在选择某类车型时最多可获得7,000美元的现金折扣。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080624/MKT065808.asp

石油王国沙特做出增产承诺

Saudis Promise More Oil Kingdom Increases Output

2008年06月23日14:15

沙特阿拉伯向全世界承诺当前将少量增产，且以后可能大幅增加原油供应，试图以此平息石油市场的深切忧虑。

Saudi Arabia moved to calm deep anxieties in the oil market by promising the world a little more oil now and potentially a lot more later.

但沙特的增产是否足以减缓原油价格史无前例的高涨势头还是个未知数。许多人都担心油价可能还将大涨。上周，纽约商品交易所原油期货价格曾一度上探每桶139.89美元，创下历史新高，此后仅有小幅回落。

But it is unclear whether the Saudi bid to reassert its oil muscle will be enough to slow a historic surge in crude prices that many fear could go far higher. Oil prices in New York hit a record last week of $139.89 a barrel and have since fallen back, but only marginally.

在位于红海沿岸的吉达市举行的石油生产国和消费国石油峰会上，全球最大的石油生产国沙特对各国部长及石油官员表示，如有必要，今年剩下的时间内将在现有的日产量950万桶的基础上增加20万桶。全球石油市场的需求约为每天8,600万桶。

The world's largest oil producer told ministers and oil executives at an unusual summit of producers and consumers in the Red Sea city of Jeddah that it will boost its output by 200,000 barrels a day for the rest of the year if needed, adding to its current production of around 9.5 million barrels a day. The global market for oil is about 86 million barrels a day.

除此之外，为了消除人们对将来的全球供应无法满足日渐高涨的需求的担忧，沙特还承诺要积极采取行动，到2018年将总产能从目前的日产量1,140万提高到最多1,500万桶。

In addition, seeking to address rising fears that future world supplies may not match rising demand, Saudi Arabia also promised an aggressive campaign to push its overall output capability to as much as 15 million barrels a day by 2018 from around 11.4 million now.

如此幅度的产能提升对日产量从未超过1,100万桶的沙特来说可谓惊人。要达到这一目标，沙特必须首先增加早在20世纪40年代就已投产的大油田的产量－－这可不是轻而易举的事。

A capacity increase of that magnitude would be extraordinary for a country that has never produced more than 11 million barrels a day. To get there, Saudi Arabia would have to squeeze greater quantities of oil primarily from huge fields that have been in production since as far back as the 1940s -- far from a simple task.

沙特应对长期供应担忧的举措出于人们意料之外。就在几个月前，沙特石油大臣纳伊米(Ali Naimi)还表示，沙特现在已经在进行巨大的投入，如果一切都按计划进行的话，将在明年之内将沙特的产能提高到日产1,250万桶，他认为没有必要进一步提高产量。沙特投资逾600亿美元增加产能，同时弥补Ghawar和Abqaiq等年代久远的大油田产出率的自然下滑。

The Saudi move to address long-term supply worries came as a surprise. The kingdom's oil minister, Ali Naimi, said just months ago that he saw no need to go beyond the huge investments now under way, which will push Saudi output ability to 12.5 million barrels a day sometime next year, if all goes according to plan. The kingdom is spending more than $60 billion to increase its production abilities while also offsetting the natural decline in output rates at huge but aging fields like Ghawar and Abqaiq.

一些石油专家对沙特将日产量增加到1,500万桶的能力表示怀疑。曾任沙特阿美(Aramco)总裁的爱德华?普莱斯(Edward Price)说，我担心现有的大油田日产量最多只能达到1,200万桶左右。他还说，就算是沙特，资源也是有限的。

Some oil experts expressed skepticism about the Saudis' ability to boost output to 15 million barrels a day. 'I am afraid that we are going to see the big fields [now in production] top off at 12 million barrels a day or so,' said Edward Price, a former president of Saudi Arabian Oil Co., or Aramco, who keeps up with developments there. 'Even in Saudi Arabia, there are resource limits.'

沙特做出增产承诺正值其他大产油国的产量剧跌之际。尼日利亚称，由于其石油设施不断受到武装袭击，目前的产量已跌至25年低点，日产量较正常水平下降了近100万桶。墨西哥、英国和挪威这些在满足市场石油需求方面扮演着重要角色的国家的出口也在下降。

The promised added barrels from Saudi Arabia come as output has fallen sharply in other big producing countries. Nigeria says that because of continuing militant attacks against its oil facilities, production is now at a 25-year low, down nearly one million barrels a day from its normal output. Oil exports from Mexico, Britain and Norway -- all of which have played major roles in slaking the world's oil thirst -- also are falling.

在沙特举行的国际石油峰会气氛凝重，包括英国首相戈登?布朗(Gordon Brown)在内的36个国家的代表、近10家国际石油公司的高管，以及来自石油输出国组织(OPEC)的高层官员就如何应对高不可抑的油价展开激辩。沙特国王阿卜杜拉(Abdullah)说高油价是对全球安全的重大威胁。

The Saudi-hosted summit was a somber affair as delegates from 36 countries, including British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the heads of nearly 10 international oil companies and top officials from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, debated how to address nosebleed prices, a situation that Saudi King Abdullah called a major threat to global security.

油价在过去一年中已涨了一倍，导致燃油价格飙升，也给航空、货运到美国汽车生产等许多行业带来极大的压力。油价的上涨还引发了欧洲的暴力抗议活动，以及很多发展中国家的经济动荡。

Oil prices have doubled in the past year, causing fuel prices to soar and putting huge strains on industries ranging from airlines and cargo shipping to U.S. auto manufacturers. The price rise has also stirred violent protests in Europe and economic unrest in much of the developing world.

为期一天的吉达会议上，各方纷纷做出承诺，沙特等大产油国誓言将致力于平息人们对原油供应量的担忧，美国等主要消费国也谈及加大可再生能源的投资力度。但这次会议可能很难改变人们认为世界石油市场不稳定的看法。

The one-day Jeddah gathering unleashed a spate of promises as big producers like Saudi Arabia vowed to do more to calm supply fears and big consumers like the U.S. talked of heightened investments in renewable energies. Yet the conclave is likely to do little to change perceptions about the precariousness of world oil markets.

在热情的握手和表示要进行合作的豪言壮语背后，与会各方对导致油价高涨的罪魁祸首意见不一。

Behind the warm handshakes and the talk of cooperation rumbled a deep disagreement over what has caused the oil-price surge.

沙特官员四处奔走，向人们传达油价的波动与石油供应无关的信息。沙特国王阿卜杜拉在讲话中谴责涉入石油期货交易的人“自私”，说投机者“十分卑劣”。

Saudi officials worked the halls, delivering the message that price volatility wasn't related to oil supplies. King Abdullah, in his speech, decried the 'selfishness' of those involved in the oil-futures market, speculators whom he derided as 'despicable.'

阿卜杜拉说，虽然OPEC近几个月来一直努力满足需求，但西方许多人仍然只将矛头对准OPEC。

The king said that many in the West continue to 'point the finger of blame at OPEC alone,' despite efforts within OPEC to keep pace with demand in recent months.

但美国等消费国的部长将大部分责任归咎于供求关系，认为在全球需求自2003年以来以平均每年1.8%的速度增长之际，市场需要更多石油。全球需要的增长在很大程度上是由于中国和印度的需求飙升。OPEC供应着全球近40%的原油。

Yet ministers from consuming nations like the U.S. put most of the blame on the fundamentals of supply and demand, saying more oil is needed at a time when global demand since 2003 has jumped by 1.8% a year on average -- thanks largely to surging demand from China and India. OPEC supplies nearly 40% of the world's crude oil.

美国能源部长博德曼(Samuel Bodman)说，我相信我们大多数人在有件事上都意见一致：当前的油价太高了。除非我们行动起来，否则形势就会继续令人难以忍受。

'I believe that most of us agree on one thing: Prices are too high at present,' said U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman. 'And unless we act, the situation will remain unsustainable.'

许多产油国都认为美国应当采取措施加强对石油期货市场的监管，但会议在这方面没有取得明显进展。对于如何让沙特、伊朗或俄罗斯等大产油国发布有关储量或是每个油田消耗速度的更为可靠的数据，也没有进行公开讨论。这类数据会让通常都处于一片迷雾之中的市场增加透明度。

The gathering made no clear headway on whether the U.S. should take steps to tighten regulations on the oil-futures trading market, as many oil producers think it should. Nor was there any public discussion of how to get big producers like Saudi Arabia, Iran or Russia to publish more reliable data on their reserves and or the depletion rates of individual fields. Such data would offer more clarity to a market that most often operates in a deep fog.

石油消费国的监察机构国际能源署(International Energy Agency)自己在对世界最大的一些油田进行统计，试图弥补信息断层。

The International Energy Agency, a watchdog for consuming nations, is doing its own study of the world's biggest fields in a bid to bridge the information gap.

许多官员都是在国内或国际的政治重压之下来到吉达的。

Many officials came to Jeddah under heavy political fire either at home or abroad.

因高昂的燃油价格而在国内面对猛烈抗议的英国首相布朗提出了石油生产国和消费国可以更好地合作、减轻危机的一些方法。他提出停止限制西方投资阿拉伯国家的能源产业，同时也宣布他愿意增加主权财富基金进入英国市场的渠道。

British Prime Minister Brown, who has faced a rash of protests at home over high fuel costs, pitched a number of ways that producing and consuming nations could better cooperate to ease the crisis. He called for the end of restrictions to Western investment in Arab countries' energy sectors while also announcing his willingness to increase access for sovereign wealth funds to the U.K.'s market.

中国国家副主席习近平为中国的能源政策辩护，表示中国决心发展替代能源、提高能效。中国激增的能源需求帮助推高了全球油价。为了应对油价上涨，中国上周宣布，计划提高补贴的燃油价格。不过，习近平强调说，直到最近，中国国内能源需求90%来自国内供应。

China's Vice President Xi Jinping defended his country's energy policies, saying China is committed to alternative energy developments and to increased energy efficiency. China's booming energy demand has helped propel world oil prices. To counter that rise, China announced last week that it plans to raise its subsidized fuel costs to consumers. Still, Mr. Xi noted that, until recently, 90% of China's domestic energy needs came from domestic supplies.

在吉达会议之前，沙特先是希望借承诺大幅增产来推动油价回落。但这一举措并没有给市场造成什么影响，沙特石油官员似乎又将注意力转向了长期的计划。

Leading up to the Jeddah meeting, the Saudis first hoped to nudge prices down by promising a big boost in output. When that left markets unfazed, the country's oil officials appeared to turn their attention to long-range plans instead.

纳伊米说，沙特计划未来5年内在石油项目上投入1,290亿美元。他说，如果必要的话，沙特可以增加5个大油田的开采量，将日产量提高200多万桶。

Mr. Naimi said the country is looking to invest $129 billion in oil projects over the next five years. If needed, he said, the country could add more than two million barrels a day in extra capacity through more drilling in five huge fields.

但那无疑会是个挑战。与其他地方的石油公司一样，沙特也遭遇了成本暴涨和项目延迟。从一些项目来看，纳伊米的产量预测可能很难达到。

But that is certain to be a challenge. Saudi Arabia has been hit by soaring costs and project delays, as have oil companies elsewhere. And with some projects, Mr. Naimi is making output predictions that could be hard to hit.

举例来说，沙特阿美斥资近200亿美元开发Khurais油田，目的在于将产量提高到每天120万桶－－该公司内部的许多人都认为这个目标太高了。但纳伊米周日表示，要进一步提高沙特的石油产能，Khurais油田将逐步将日产量再提高25万桶。

Aramco is spending nearly $20 billion, for example, to develop the huge Khurais field, with an aim of pushing its output to 1.2 million barrels a day -- a target that many within the company think is overambitious. But to push the country's abilities still higher, Mr. Naimi said Sunday that Khurais would over time be made to deliver 250,000 barrels a day more.

Margaret Coker / Neil King Jr.

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080623/ecb143420.asp

投资者担心调价无助中国炼油商扭亏

Investors Doubt Price Rise Is Cure for China Refiners

2008年06月23日12:56

周五亚洲交易时段，中国两大石油巨头的股价出现上扬，此前中国政府上调了成品油的价格，但由于人们疑心政府此举不会显著降低两公司炼油业务的亏损，投资者在调价消息发布伊始所迸发出的热情很快便消退了。

Shares in China's top two oil refiners advanced in Asian trading Friday after Beijing increased oil-product prices, but early enthusiasm among investors waned amid doubts the move will put a significant dent in the companies' losses.

在香港证交所，中国石油化工股份有限公司(China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., 简称：中国石化)和中国石油天然气股份有限公司(PetroChina Co. Ltd., 简称：中国石油)的股价上周五开盘双双上扬5%，但股市收盘时涨幅都出现了回落。

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec, and PetroChina Co. each rose 5% at the open Friday on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, but the gains eased by the end of the day.

中国此次将汽油和柴油的基准价每吨上调了人民币1,000元(合145.35美元)，将航空燃油的价格每吨上调了1,500元，调价措施于上周五生效。此次行动令市场感到意外，人们原本预计政府在8月份奥运会结束前会维持油价的稳定。这次调价主要是为了解决日益严重的燃油供应短缺问题，由于炼油商要以不断飙升的国际市场价格购入原油，却不得不以政府限定的价格在国内市场出售成品油，因此，为了避免炼油业务出现更大亏损，炼油商开始缩减燃油产量。

China increased the base price of gasoline and diesel by 1,000 yuan (US$145.35) a metric ton and raised prices paid to refiners for jet fuel by 1,500 yuan, effective Friday. The move surprised the market, which had expected the government to hold off until after the Olympics in August. The increases were aimed largely at addressing worsening shortages, caused by refiners reducing their production to avoid losses that they incur by buying crude at soaring global prices and selling it at capped domestic prices.

不过即使是在此次调价之后，中国的汽油和柴油零售价仍比国际水平低三分之一左右，这意味着中国石化和中国石油的炼油业务有可能继续亏损。投资者还担心中国政府可能会取消给予进口原油和成品油的增值税退税优惠，这一优惠措施旨在弥补炼油商的损失。

But even after the increase, gasoline and diesel prices are still roughly a third below international levels, meaning Sinopec and PetroChina are likely to continue to incur losses on refining. Investors also questioned whether Beijing will persist with rebates on value-added taxes on imported crude oil and oil products that had been intended to ameliorate losses for the refiners.

DBS唯高达(DBS Vickers )的石油分析师Gideon Lo说，此次调价对弥补石油企业炼油业务的巨额亏损起不了太大作用，它也没能缓解炼油行业所面临的政策不明朗因素。

The 'actual contribution will not be significant compared to their huge refining-operation losses. It also does not ease the policy overhang that is overshadowing the sector,' said Gideon Lo, an oil analyst at DBS Vickers.

中国石化发言人黄文生说，政府未通知将停止执行上述退税政策，这一政策定于本月底到期。

Sinopec spokesman Huang Wensheng said Beijing hasn't issued a notice that it will stop paying the rebate, which is to end this month.

在上海股市，中国石化A股上周五收于人民币12.83元，涨幅2.1%。中国石油A股收于15.86元，涨幅4.6%。而两公司在香港上市股票的涨幅则要小些，中国石化H股涨1.1%，中国石油H股涨1.6%。

In Shanghai, Sinopec's Class A shares, traded mostly by domestic investors, ended the day up 2.1% at 12.83 yuan. PetroChina's Class A shares rose 4.6% to 15.86 yuan. Gains in the companies' shares listed in Hong Kong were more muted. Sinopec rose 1.1% in Hong Kong, while PetroChina added 1.6%.

David Winning

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080623/bch130413.asp

上海和香港股市走高，受中国政府宣布上调成品油价格影响

2008年6月20日 13:56

上海和香港股市走高，炼油商类股领涨，此前中国政府于前夜宣布上调成品油价格。

上证综合指数上涨4.8%，至2,883点，恒生指数涨2.3%，至23,325.25点。恒生中国企业指数上涨2.4%，至12,727.60点。

中国宣布将汽油和柴油价格上调17%-18%，上调幅度为四年多来的最高水平。

上海股市出现大幅振荡，目前买盘已不仅仅限于能源类股，连航空类股等燃油消费股也收复了早盘的失地。

但交易员对涨势能否会持续缺乏信心。

海通证券(Haitong Securities)分析师张崎称，中国投资者不能作空，因此当股市走软时，他们获利的唯一方式就是顺势买入，然后快速卖出，因此后市股市的波动可能更大。

东方航空A股(600115.SH)最新上涨2.9%，至人民币6.73元，早些时候一度跌至人民币5.90元低点。香港市场上，中国国航(0753.HK)最新跌3.4%，至4.57港元。

尽管股市走高，但分析师仍对炼油商类股以及上海股市的长期前景持谨慎态度。

DBS唯高达(DBS Vickers)的分析师建议投资者逢高抛售，因为此次调价并不足以使国内炼油业务恢复盈利。

光大证券(Everbright Securities)分析师石鸿林表示，获利回吐已经出现。

石鸿林称，今日股市的振荡走势完全不足为奇，例如中国石化(Sinopec)早盘的下跌就是如此。持有该股的投资者此前蒙受了大幅亏损，其中部分投资者正藉燃油涨价消息公布之际出货。

中国石化A股(600028.SHG)最新涨3.3%，至人民币12.98元，但早些时候一度跌至人民币11.95元。

中国石化香港上市的H股(0386.HK)最新涨3.6%，至8.28港元，但已经脱离了8.49港元高点。

其他个股中，中国石油A股(601857.SH)最新涨5.2%，至人民币15.96元，H股(0857.HK)最新涨4.7%，至10.78港元，均脱离了盘中高点。

石鸿林认为获利回吐可能推动中国石油后市走低。中国石油每下挫5%，上证综合指数就会下跌100点，因此若中国石油最终收盘下跌，则会拖累股指一同走低。

鉴于投资者仍担心通货膨胀对上市公司业绩的影响，因此上海股市的上涨不太可能带动其他类股的买盘。

华泰证券(Huatai Securites)分析师陈金仁表示，即使市场普遍认为燃油价格的上调对消费者价格指数(CPI)不会造成明显影响，但当前的通货膨胀水平仍然高企，加息担忧依然挥之不去。

陈金仁称，预计多数投资者将采取观望态度，等待第三季度上市公司收益的公布。

本文由道琼斯通讯社提供，获取更丰富更及时的道琼斯财经资讯，请访问WWW.DJCNEWS.COM。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080620/MKT135546.asp

中国上调能源价格

2008年06月20日07:00

面对原油价格突破每桶130美元给政府控制下的能源定价体系造成的冲击，中国政府宣布将上调汽油、柴油和电力的零售价格。

此举将向消费者身上转移一部分全球能源价格上涨的压力。国际上许多企业管理人士和政府官员早就敦促中国上调能源价格，尽管目前通胀的压力不断加大。上调油价和电价将会提高企业的成本，可能推高中国出口产品的价格。但这些调整并非是一些人所要求的对价格控制体系进行全面改革。

这一消息是在周四晚间中国国内市场休市后宣布的，而有关中国在全球石油市场中的作用及其对油价影响力的争论很有可能进一步升温。在此消息公布后，石油期货价格迅即回落，因预计上调零售价格将抑制中国对原油的购买量。但许多专家近几周来不断警告说，上调成品油价格实际上会导致中国的石油需求出现增长，从而在近期内加剧油价上涨。

中国上次调整国内成品油价格是去年11月，调价幅度为10%，而当时的原油价格约为每桶90美元。中国国家发展和改革委员会(National Development and Reform Commission)表示，此次将汽油和柴油的基准价格分别上调了17%和18%，自本周五开始生效。汽油价格将从每加仑2.80美元（1加仑=3.785升）涨至3.05美元，柴油价格将从每加仑2.45美元涨至3.05美元，这也是四年来的最大涨幅。全国销售电价平均上涨了4.7%。

中国是仅次于美国的全球第二大石油消费国，长期以来一直被认为是多年来全球油价持续上涨的主要推动力。随着近几个月来油价的飙升，中国政府长期坚持的限制汽油、柴油和电力零售价格的政策引起了前所未有的关注。批评人士指责此举是干扰市场发出的信号，维持了对石油和煤炭的需求，推动了价格的节节攀升。

随着通胀问题日益成为全球关注的焦点，对中国价格管制的政治压力甚至有可能超过对其汇率政策的长期争执，成为中国最具争议性的国际经济议题。美国财政部长亨利?鲍尔森(Henry Paulson)谈及能源的次数明显增加。他敦促中国政府放弃能源价格控制措施，称美国在上世纪70年代经过痛苦的经历后才发现，这种做法行不通。他也在本周的中美战略经济对话中再次提到了这个问题。

纽约咨询公司Rhodium Group的中国能源专家特雷弗?豪泽(Trevor Houser)说，中国即将取代沙特阿拉伯，成为美国眼中制造高油价的罪魁祸首。华盛顿抱怨中国价格管制的人同指责人民币汇率的都是同一群人。

周三，16名民主党参议员致信布什政府官员，指责中国的价格管制是油价上涨的原因，敦促他们在这个问题上给中国施加压力。署名者包括前总统参选人希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)。他们在信中写道，美国人在加油站看到的情况在某种程度上是由中国发生的事情导致的。

中国国家副主席习近平参加本周末在沙特举行的石油生产国和消费国峰会时，此类紧张关系也将会被带到会议上。

这次调价并未取消政府定价的体制，不过中国已表示要进行更深入的改革。发改委副主任张晓强本周表示，我们改革定价体制的决心很大。但由于中国目前面临着10多年来最严重的通货膨胀（今年以来为8%以上），政府官员看来不愿让中国消费者完全面对世界油价暴涨的冲击。很重要的一点是对社会稳定的担忧，此次涨价的同时就宣布了一个补贴计划，以期将涨价对贫困人口的影响降至最低。

批评中国限价政策的逻辑非常简单：通过压低企业和消费者购买成品油的价格，中国妨碍了世界油价飙升导致需求走软这一正常市场机制发挥作用。

迄今为止，中国政府定价的主要影响还不是让其消费者炫耀基本不受其他国家高油价的影响。这种做法让中国的炼油厂无利可图，因为它们要以全球市场的价格购买原油，但以政府定价销售成品油。炼油厂从市场上退出，带来了成品油普遍短缺的现象。同样，发电厂的亏损也在上升，因为它们要以市场价购买煤炭，但却以较低的国家定价销售电力，电力短缺也开始在各地出现。

这意味着可供中国消费者购买的能源实际上是减少了，而没有增加。将价格提高到足以让炼油厂盈利的水平，炼油厂和发电厂就将全力满足过去几个月中难以释放的全部需求。

国际能源署(International Energy Agency)在最新一期石油市场报告中写道，自2007年以来，中国持续面临着成品油短缺的局面，这表明存在着巨大的潜在需求。IEA称，因为这些潜在的需求，如果零售价格上涨改善了供应情况，中国的石油需求增长甚至还会加速。

在去年11月将成品油价格上调10%以后，中国的石油需求并未明显放缓，世界市场的原油价格从那以后已上涨了约50%。

这次涨价能否让炼油厂完全扭亏为盈尚不清楚：一些分析师曾估计需要涨价25%才能实现这一目标。纽约股市周四，中国石油类公司的亚洲存托凭证大幅上扬。由于这一涨价消息，中国石化(China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.)上涨了9.4%，中国石油(PetroChina Co.)上涨了6%。

成品油的供应可能迅速得到改善，因为许多炼油厂和分销商近几周来一直在期待着价格的上调。政府定价让它们能够有机会积累汽油和柴油，从而在不久后以更高的价格卖出获利。

尽管并没有确切的库存量数据，但中国近期的成品油进口却在增加：5月份的柴油进口量名列历史第三位，中国当月也是汽油的净进口国，这在历史上还是第一次。

这种行为也是分析师所说的价格管制增加国际市场动荡的一个原因。油价长期被人为压低，这一扭曲现象鼓励了消费者多开车，也让企业建设效率低下的工厂。高油价最终会鼓励消费者提高效率，但鉴于中国的石油使用现状和经济的高速发展，效果可能不会像一些观察人士预计的那么明显。

Rhodium Group的豪泽说，如果中国经济按10%的速度增长，即使油价上涨，石油需求还是会增加。他说，只有在石油消费者转而采用其它低能耗的手段时，高油价才能抑制需求，但目前中国并没有多少这样的手段。大多数中国城市的公共交通服务并不完善，让许多上班族别无选择。铁路运输通常都已满负荷运转，使消耗柴油的卡车运输成为企业仅有的选择之一。

尽管将中国对能源的强劲需求视为油价上涨的原因似乎已经成为一种惯例，但油价是在全球市场设定的，过去5年来全球石油消费量的年增长幅度仅略高于1%。因此，许多分析师表示，供应紧张、地缘政治的不确定性以及影响仍难以准确估量的商品市场金融投机行为等因素也同样重要。

美国咨询机构High Frequency Economics的卡尔?韦恩伯格(Carl Weinberg)说，中国在石油方面的消费相对较小。因此我很难理解为何要归咎于中国。中国是其他大宗商品市场的重要力量。它占全球钢铁需求的一半，铜需求的四分之一，但只占全球石油消费的不到10%。他说，将中国在钢铁或铜市场上的作用延伸到石油市场的做法是错误的。这是一种株连的做法。

Andrew Batson

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080620/BCH008459.asp

全球钢铁厂商采矿忙

World's Steelmakers Go Prospecting

2008年06月20日16:57

飙升的原材料成本迫使全球钢铁生产商纷纷改变策略。如今，它们不再从业内寻找合作伙伴以期增大市场影响力，而是试图通过投资矿业公司以确保铁矿石和煤炭的供应。

Soaring raw-materials costs are forcing the world's steelmakers to shift strategy. Now, rather than seeking merger partners in their own industry in hopes of gaining market clout, they are trying to protect their access to iron ore and coal by investing in mines.

在钢铁业的早期，钢铁生产商常常拥有自己的矿山，因为其他企业几乎没有这样巨额的运营资本。不过，在今天的形势下，钢铁生产商的目的却是要减少对矿业公司的依赖，后者大幅提价不断蚕食着钢铁生产的利润。不过钢铁业追逐矿产品的行动使它们与矿业巨头形成了正面交锋之势，后者也同样热切希望攫取任何拟出售的煤矿和铁矿。

Steelmakers often owned their own mines in the industry's early days because few other companies had the capital needed to operate them. But in today's climate their goal is to lessen their dependence on big mining companies, whose steep price increases are squeezing steel-making profits. The steel industry's race for minerals, however, pits it directly against those mining giants, who are equally eager to snap up any coal or iron-ore deposits that go on the block.

据知情人士周四透露，由中国钢铁制造商和主权财富基金共同组成的一个财团正参与巴西Companhia Siderurgica Nacional SA旗下铁矿石子公司股份的首轮竞购。该财团的兴趣虽然只是初露端倪，但已显示在眼下大宗商品价格大幅上涨之际，中国对保障矿石等自然资源的供应十分重视。

A consortium made up of Chinese steelmakers and China's sovereign wealth fund is entering the initial round of bidding for a stake in the iron-ore unit of Brazil's Companhia Siderurgica Nacional SA, people familiar with the situation said Thursday. The group's interest, though preliminary, shows the importance China places on securing supplies of ore and other natural resources amid the current commodities boom.

世界最大的钢铁制造商安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)最近进行了一系列收购，在非洲、加拿大和俄罗斯收购铁矿，又在哈萨克斯坦、印度和南美收购煤矿，现在自称是世界发展最快的矿业集团。上个月，该公司斥资6.31亿美元收购了澳大利亚Macarthur Coal Ltd. 14.9%的股份，阻碍了瑞士矿业公司Xstrata PLC对后者的收购计划。Macarthur是世界最大的粉煤生产商。粉煤是炼焦煤的一种，主要用于钢铁生产。

ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker, having recently purchased a series of iron-ore mines in Africa, Canada and Russia and coal mines in Kazakhstan, India and South America, now touts itself as the 'world's fastest-growing mining group.' Last month, it spent $631 million to buy a 14.9% stake in Australia's Macarthur Coal Ltd., the world's largest producer of pulverized coal, a type of coking coal used in steel making, thwarting Swiss miner Xstrata PLC's plans to take over Macarthur.

安赛乐米塔尔的首席执行长拉克希米?米塔尔(Lakshmi Mittal)在接受采访时说，确保原材料供应的可靠来源已变得前所未有的重要。该公司的原材料自给率达到了46%左右，并且还计划用50亿美元收购一系列矿业公司，以便至2012年时实现70%的原材料自给。

'Ensuring a reliable source of raw-material supply is more important than ever,' Lakshmi Mittal, chief executive of ArcelorMittal, said in an interview. The steelmaker, whose mines supply about 46% of its raw-material needs, has set aside $5 billion to buy enough of them to provide 70% of its needs by 2012.

自2003年以来，钢铁业刮起了并购风，钢铁生产商纷纷合并，以满足发展中国家桥梁、房地产、发电厂等基础设施项目不断增长的钢铁需求。其中就包括卢森堡的安赛乐(Arcelor SA)与印度的米塔尔(Mittal Steel Co.)实施合并，另一家印度公司Tata Steel Ltd.与英国Corus Group的合并。现在，这波并购潮正逐步减缓。

Since 2003, the industry has been swept up in a wave of consolidation, with steelmakers bulking up to feed the developing world's growing demand for bridges, buildings, power plants and other infrastructure projects. Among other deals, Arcelor SA of Luxembourg merged with Mittal Steel Co. of India and another Indian company, Tata Steel Ltd., merged with Britain's Corus Group. Now, that wave is decelerating.

现在出现了另一种潮流，钢铁生产商正试图通过降低原材料价格上涨对他们的影响来获得更多利润。在过去的一年中，煤炭价格涨了一倍多，铁矿石价格涨了约70%。

Instead, steelmakers are plowing profits into reducing their vulnerability to spikes in raw-materials prices. In the past year, coal prices have more than doubled, while iron-ore prices have risen about 70%.

总部位于伦敦的钢铁研究及咨询公司MEPS International Ltd.的董事长彼得?菲什(Peter Fish)说，钢铁业的结构在发生变化；过去原材料通常占销售价格的15%，如今占了大约一半。

'The structure of the steel industry is changing,' says Peter Fish, chairman of MEPS International Ltd., a London-based steel research and consulting firm. 'It used to be that raw materials accounted for 15% of selling prices. They now account for about 50% of selling prices.'

一些分析师表示，钢铁生产商目前在大宗商品价格处于周期性顶点时出手收购矿山花了冤枉钱。不过随着矿业公司和钢铁生产商在竞争相同的有限资产，很多钢铁企业感觉它们别无选择。不仅如此，它们还表示，实现更大程度上的自给自足长期来看会带来好处。

Some analysts say steelmakers are buying at the top of the commodity cycle and overpaying as a result. But with both miners and steelmakers vying for the same limited assets, many steelmakers feel they have no choice. Moreover, they say greater self-sufficiency will pay off in the long run.

虽然中国是一个钢铁消耗大国，但它却没有多少高质量的铁矿石储量，因此数家中国钢铁生产商正在采取行动确保自己的供应。

While China is a huge consumer of steel, it is largely bereft of quality iron-ore deposits, which is why several Chinese steelmakers are moving to secure their own supplies.

巴西大型钢铁和铁矿石生产商CSN已邀请各方竞购它旗下未上市铁矿石子公司Nacional Minerios SA的全部或部分股份。据知情人士透露，包括宝钢集团有限公司、首钢集团、江苏沙钢集团等大型中国生产商以及中国政府运营的资产2,000亿美元的中国投资有限责任公司都对收购表示了兴趣。不过该知情人士表示，竞购财团的组成还没有最后确定。

CSN, one of Brazil's leading producers of both steel and iron ore, has invited bids for all or part of Nacional Minerios SA, its unlisted iron-ore unit. Major Chinese producers including Baosteel Group Co., Shougang Group and Shagang Group, as well as China Investment Corp., a $200 billion investment pool run by the Chinese government, are interested in the unit, a person familiar with the matter said. But the composition of the consortium isn't final, this person said.

CSN聘请高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)作为该出售交易的财务顾问。

CSN has hired Goldman Sachs Group Inc. as its financial adviser for the sale.

上周五，中国国有钢铁制造商中国中钢集团公司表示，该公司小幅增持了澳大利亚铁矿石集团Midwest Corp.的股份至近44%，加大了对该公司的收购力度。

Last Friday, Sinosteel Corp., a state-owned Chinese steelmaker said it boosted its stake in Australian iron-ore group Midwest Corp. slightly to nearly 44%, boosting its efforts to take over Midwest.

其他规模较小的中国钢铁生产商也在努力获得更多铁矿石。中国吉林省最大的钢铁生产商通化钢铁计划收购或是投资钢厂附近的8个矿山。通化钢铁的官员表示，该公司只有约20-30%的铁矿石能够自给，其余的需要从矿业公司购买。该公司希望至2010年底前，将矿石的自给比例提高至50%以上。山西的碳钢及不锈钢生产商太原钢铁表示，该公司计划将自给比例从50%提高至80%。

Other, smaller Chinese steelmakers are also trying to line up more iron ore. Tonghua Steel, the largest steelmaker in northeast China's Jilin province, plans to buy or invest in eight mines near its mills. Company officials say Tonghua can supply only about 20% to 30% of its own iron-ore needs and has to turn to mining companies for the balance. The company hopes to increase its self-sufficiency in ore to more than 50% by the end of 2010. Taiyuan Iron & Steel, a carbon- and stainless-steel producer in northern China's Shanxi province has said it plans to raise its self-sufficiency to 80% from 50%.

在中国钢铁生产商四处寻觅资源的时候，澳大利亚矿业巨头必和必拓(BHP Billiton Ltd.)的首席执行长高瑞思(Marius Kloppers)表示，如果有中国公司收购他公司的股份，他不会感到吃惊的。必和必拓是世界最大的铁矿石生产商之一。

As Chinese steelmakers go on the prowl for resources, Marius Kloppers, chief executive of Australia-based mining giant BHP Billiton Ltd., one of the world's biggest iron-ore producers, said he wouldn't be surprised by a Chinese buy-up of his company's shares.

世界其他地区对原材料的争夺也愈演愈烈。巴西钢铁生产商Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais SA(Usiminas)表示，该公司在未来5年中将斥资7.50亿美元投资更多的矿山，将铁矿石年产量提高近4倍，至2,900万吨。Usiminas今年已斥资10美元收购了矿业公司J. Mendes及其一系列子公司。在印度，Steel Authority of India Ltd.与Tata Steel今年早些时候签署了成立煤矿合资企业的协议。

The race for raw materials is also heating up in other parts of the world. Brazilian steelmaker Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais SA, or Usiminas, said it will spend $750 million to invest in more mines over the next five years to nearly quintuple its iron-ore output to 29 million metric tons a year. Usiminas already has spent $1 billion this year to buy miner J. Mendes and its subsidiaries. In India, Steel Authority of India Ltd. and Tata Steel signed a deal earlier this year to form a coal-mining joint venture.

Robert Guy Matthews

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080620/ffe170515.asp

低价耗油车 VS. 高价节油车

2008年06月20日14:43

丰丰田公司(Toyota)出品的Prius是美国最畅销的混合动力车，平均售价为22,939美元，而同一车型的“燃油版”──凯美瑞(Camry)是19,231美元。不过，Prius更省油。要知道，眼下油价已经上涨到每加仑4美元了。

这可给消费者出了个难题。怎样选择更合算呢：是价格偏贵但能耗较低的混合动力车，还是价格便宜但更耗油的普通型车呢？

Edmunds.com给出的答案是Prius，如果顾客能开上三年以上的话。该网站主要提供各种购车资讯。以Prius和凯美瑞为例，由于混合动力车更省油，三年时间省下的油费刚好抵消与同类普通车型的价差。

Prius这个例子出自Edmunds的最新研究成果，该项研究主要探讨要花多少时间才能抵消混合动力车与一般普通车型的价差。结论是：汽油价格上涨使许多混合动力车变得更具吸引力了，因为靠节省油费来弥补价格差所需的时间缩短了。

分析师们发现，除了Prius外，日产汽车的Altima、通用汽车的Yukon和福特的Mercury Mariner等混合动力车均能较快弥补价差。

当然，许多消费者购买混合动力车是为了更好地保护环境，价格因素并非他们考虑的重点。如果单从成本角度来看，混合动力车就不一定是最佳选择了。一些车型要么非常昂贵，要么单位油耗行使里程数并不明显高于普通汽车，所以消费者在购买之前要考虑清楚。此类混合动力车包括丰田Highlander、雪佛兰Malibu、Saturn公司的Aura及雷萨克斯的超豪华LS600H。

“目前对于大多数消费者来说，比较合算的混合动力车并不多，而Prius就是其中之一，”Edmunds.com负责行业分析的执行董事杰西·特普克(Jesse Toprak)说。

Edmunds的分析集中在汽车价格上──他们尽可能地将混合动力车与相同车型的燃油型车进行比较。接着分析师们会考虑价格折扣、汽车在市内及高速公路上的油消指标等因素，当然还有汽油价格。根据美国汽车协会的最新数据，每加仑汽油的平均价格已达到4.02美元。分析师们还要考虑联邦减税优惠，目前减免的最高额度为3,000美元。有关分析中不包括维修和更换汽车零部件的费用，也不包括各种保险费用。

即便如此，福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)销售分析师乔治·菲亚斯(George Pipas)指出，当油价上涨到每加仑2-3美元时，从成本上考虑，混合动力车就不失为更好的选择了。

随着油价上涨，混合动力车的销量会像小型车一样得到提振。“每当经济状况更有利混合动力车时，其需求就会增长，消费者不再局限于那些对此有兴趣或是原先就主张采用混合动力车的人，”菲亚斯说。

他表示，消费者首先要考虑自己的需求。他们可能会发现，购买节能的四缸小汽车也许更合适。“随着油价的走高，这对消费者而言也许是更好的选择，当然还要取决于他们的用途，”他指出。“这一点很重要，虽然大家都不太注意：消费者驾车到底是为什么目的呢？”

眼下，纽约州的马丁·鲍尔(Martin Ball)正琢磨着卖掉手头Jeep出品的Commander SUV，换一辆更省油的车。在他考虑的名单中包括日产的 Altima及雷克萨斯的RX400H，这两款均为混合动力车。

鲍尔的妻子也开SUV，她也更看好Altima，部分原因是她觉得这款车外观不错。

“我们想处理掉一辆SUV，因为油价太高了，”鲍尔说。“我们打算保留我太太的那辆SUV，再买一辆新车。我在考虑Altima，因为它物美价廉，看上去气派，而且能耗低。”

Altima混合动力车颇具吸引力，四年左右就能抵消价差。此外，Edmunds指出，购买该车还能获得2,350美元的减税优惠，使其与标准燃油型Altima的价差缩小为1,879美元。Altima混合动力车在市内和高速公路上的能耗分别为35英里/加仑和33英里/加仑，而标准燃油型的能耗分别为23英里/加仑和31英里/加仑。如果一年行使15,000英里，那么可节省油费499美元。

还有几款混合动力车能在五年内抵消与同类燃油车的价格差。

以Yukon为例，燃油车型的能耗为15.2英里/加仑，而混合动力型的能耗为21.5英里/加仑。这意味着，混合动力型每年能节省1,170美元的油费。因此，根据Edmunds的分析，混合动力型的价格差约在五年内就可抵消。而紧凑型SUV Mercury Mariner和凯美瑞所需的抵消期限略长于五年。

需要六年时间才能抵消价格差的车型有福特Escape，这也是一款小型SUV。Edmunds称，本田Civic要花6.1年才能抵消，不过与该款混合动力车相比较的标准车型具有更多的功能和选项。

其他混合动力车不是价格太贵，就是耗油水平与普通车型相差无几。Tahoe和Highlander SUV的混合动力车型比普通型贵很多，消费者要花14年至18年的时间才能抵消价差。

Malibu和Aura的混合动力车型几乎没什么优势，因为燃油型在节能方面的表现也很出色：四缸标准型在高速公路上的能耗为30英里/加仑，而混合动力型的能耗为32英里/加仑。因此，消费者最好避开这两款混合动力车。

在抵消价格差方面，费时最长当数雷克萨斯LS600H。Edmunds.com称，该车的市场均价为102,423美元，而燃油型LS460L的均价为83,565美元。如果驾驶LS600H，那么要花一个世纪才能弥补价格差了。

费时最少就能抵消与同类燃油车型之间价差的混合动力车型包括：
-- Prius
-- Altima
-- Yukon

费时最长才能弥补价差的混合动力车包括：
-- LS600H
-- Aura
-- Highlander

（来源：Edmunds.com）

Josee Valcourt

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080620/fea151722.asp

换车的黄金法则

When to Ditch Your Old Car For a Newer (but Not New) One

2008年06月16日12:02

有些人每隔三五年就要换部新车。他们当中，有的是想体验驾驶最新款汽车的兴奋感，有的则是想避免旧车带来的维修问题。而有的则纯粹是追求新车散发出来的独特味道。

There are people who need to 'trade up' to a new car every three to five years. Some of them want the thrill of driving the latest machine. Others want to avoid the maintenance problems of an older car. And then there are those who simply crave that new-car smell.

我和我丈夫格里(Gerry)都不算这种人。我们遵循着拥有汽车的黄金法则：购买新款二手车（只要有可能，就全部以现金支付），好好维护，然后一直开到它们不能上路为止。由于恪守这些法则，在过去二十年里，格里和我在汽车相关的成本上节省了数千美元。

My husband Gerry and I aren't any of those people. We live by the golden rules of car ownership: Buy late-model used cars (with cash, whenever possible), maintain them properly and drive them until they drop. By following these rules, Gerry and I have saved thousands of dollars in car-related costs over the past two decades.

购买二手车，而不是新车，帮助我们避免了折旧带来的刺痛。据汽车行业数据提供商Edmunds.com称，只要开出经销商的停车场，新车就会立即折旧20%。

Buying used cars, rather than new, helps us avoid much of the sting of depreciation -- the annual decline in the car's value over the life of its use. New cars can lose as much as 20% of their value as soon as they're driven off the lot, according to auto-industry-data provider Edmunds.com.

以现金支付则避免了昂贵的汽车贷款。根据Edmunds的资料，5月份，5年期汽车贷款的月供已经达到446美元。这些月还款累计起来，如果投资在年回报为5%的5年期投资项目上，可以增值至30,903美元。

By using cash, we also avoid taking out a costly loan. The average monthly payment in May was $446 on a five-year car loan, according to Edmunds. Those accumulated monthly payments would grow to $30,903 if invested over the same five years at a 5% return.

格里和我住在汽车保险费用奇高的新泽西州。我们俩开的车都已有超过5年的历史，因此我们在汽车保险上的开销要比开新车的支出低很多。目前，格里1994年的本田雅阁(Honda Accord)、我的2003年的福特(Ford) F-150皮卡、还有格里的那辆“古董车”1989年福特Mustang每年的保险费加起来才不过为1,888美元。

Gerry and I live in New Jersey, where insurance costs are steep. We both drive cars that are more than five years old, so we pay less for car insurance than we would if we were driving newer models. Right now, we pay $1,888 a year to insure Gerry's 1994 Honda Accord, my 2003 Ford F-150 pickup truck and Gerry's 'antique' 1989 Ford Mustang.

我们购买了责任险，只涵盖我们对他人和财产造成的损害和伤害。如果是新车的话，我们必须为所谓的全险支付更高的保险费，而全险还涵盖对我们和我们的汽车造成的伤害和损害。（大多数财务公司都要求车主购买全险。）

We have liability coverage, which covers only damages and injuries we cause to other people and property. With a newer car, we'd pay more for so-called comprehensive coverage, which also covers damage and injury to ourselves and our cars. (Most finance companies require owners to pay for comprehensive coverage.)

我们购买并坚持使用旧车，已经让我们省下了很多钱。不过，虽然我们原则上同意在适当的时候可以换部新车，但实际上我们对何时应该淘汰旧车的定义有所分歧。

We've saved a lot by buying and holding on to cars. But while we agree in principle about when it makes sense to replace one, in practice our definitions of when a car is about to 'drop' have differed.

我对汽车维修知之甚少，因此一旦出现了问题，我希望马上把它解决掉。我的第一部车是一辆破旧的Mustang，真是够破的，有时候我觉得我花在路边等待援助的时间比我开车的时间还要长。等到我换车的时候，我发誓我再也不会开一辆性能不可靠的车了。因此，当我的下一部车1994 Ford Explorer的传动装置第二次出现故障后，我立刻开始寻找替代品，尽管格里还想继续开着它上路。

I know little about car repair, and when there's a problem, I want it fixed right away. My first car, a beat-up old Mustang, was a lemon -- sometimes it felt like I spent more time awaiting roadside assistance than I spent driving it. I vowed when I replaced it that I'd never drive an unreliable car again. So when the transmission failed for a second time on my next car, a 1994 Ford Explorer, I started shopping for a replacement, despite Gerry's desire to keep it on the road.

格里对修理问题不像我这么在意。当他的汽车开始出现故障的迹象时，他会查看故障，通常自己就把车修好了。比如说，他的本田车曾出现间歇性刹车失灵的情况。他就觉得他自己能把车修好，尽管这是一个大工程。

Gerry is less likely to be bothered by repair problems. When his car begins to show signs of trouble, he'll dig into the problem and usually fix it on his own. For example, his Honda has a problem that causes it to intermittently lose some braking power. He feels he can fix the problem, though it's a relatively big job.

要是搁在过去，格里现在很有可能趴在汽车底下，敲敲打打，我们甚至不会讨论是否换车的问题。不过，他那辆本田已经驾驶了165,000英里，他开始很不情愿地提出是否还值得修理的问题了。

In years past, Gerry would probably be underneath the car in the driveway fixing the car now, and we wouldn't even broach the discussion of whether or not to replace it. But the Honda has 165,000 miles on it, and he has started reluctantly questioning whether it's worth the effort to fix it.

当格里首次提出淘汰本田的可能性的时候，我表示全力支持。虽然格里向我保证刹车故障可以解决，但是他还要考虑另外一个因素：随着汽油价格逼近每加仑4美元，我们需要把燃油效率问题纳入我们固有的“修理还是淘汰”的法则中去。

When he first mentioned the possibility of replacing the Honda with a newer car, I was all for it. While he assured me that the brake problem can be fixed, there's another big reason Gerry is considering it: With gas prices approaching $4 a gallon, we need to factor fuel-efficiency into our old 'repair or replace' formula.

我们那部本田车每1加仑油能跑大约26英里。我们所在地区的油价目前在每加仑3.85美元左右，如果我们把本田换成1加仑油能跑34英里的汽车，我们每年可以省下697美元，5年就是3,484美元。（你可以登录Fueleconomy.gov详细比较成本节约的情况。）

The Honda is averaging about 26 miles to the gallon. With gas prices in our area hovering at about $3.85 a gallon, we'd save an average of $697 a year -- or $3,484 over five years -- by replacing the Honda with a newer car that averages 34 miles per gallon. (Compare how much you'd save at Fueleconomy.gov.)

考虑到所有的成本，我俩都同意是时候淘汰本田了。格里已经开始翻阅汽车分类广告，初步了解一下换车的成本。他并没有着意寻找外表光鲜的靓车，不过由于二手车的价格下跌得厉害，价格较高的眩车也进入了他的视野。我们会到处看看，仔细比较，如果幸运的话，没准儿能找到一辆我们负担得起的豪华轿车呢。

With all costs considered, we both agree that it's time for the Honda to go. Gerry has started looking through classified ads to get a feel for what a replacement car might cost. He's not looking for anything flashy, but used-car values have dropped so much that he's willing to consider pricier models. We'll shop and compare, and, with a bit of luck, find a luxury car that we can actually afford.

TERRI CULLEN

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080616/fea120643.asp

各国领导人苦思油价控制良策

Leaders Fumble Efforts To Temper Oil Prices

2008年06月09日13:02

飙升的油价令全球企业和消费者遭受重创，但从华盛顿到北京的政治领导人似乎都不愿或无力在近期拿出有效的新能源战略。

Soaring oil prices are battering businesses and consumers around the world, but political leaders from Washington to Beijing appear unwilling or unable to respond with effective new energy strategies anytime soon.

西方领导人对增加全球石油供应或抑制需求无能为力。全球石油需求的增长绝大部分并非来自发达国家，而是来自印度和中国等新兴经济体。发达国家的燃料消耗量实际上已经在下滑，而新兴经济体的政府因为担心引发社会和经济动荡，所以不愿意提高相对较低的燃料价格。

Western leaders have little ability to increase global oil supply or temper demand. Most of the rise in world demand is coming not from the rich world, where fuel consumption is in fact falling, but from emerging economies like India and China, where governments are reluctant to raise relatively low fuel prices for fear of social and economic turmoil.

巴基斯坦国营新闻机构上周末报道称，由于这个南亚国家的经济陷入困境，沙特阿拉伯已同意考虑允许巴基斯坦推迟支付进口石油的欠款，这一消息凸显了人们对发展中国家政治不稳定性的担忧。

Highlighting the concern about political instability in the developing world, the state-run news service of Pakistan said over the weekend that Saudi Arabia had agreed to consider deferring Pakistani oil payments as the South Asian nation's economy struggles.

据巴基斯坦新闻机构报道，巴每天从沙特进口约25万桶石油，高涨的油价令巴基斯坦的石油欠款在10个月左右的时间里增加了逾40%。

Pakistan imports about 250,000 barrels a day from Saudi Arabia, the news service said. Rising oil prices have increased Pakistan's oil bill by more than 40% in some 10 months, it reported.

上周五，油价创下有史以来最大单日涨幅，石油消费国的政治家们将面临更大压力，确定油价高涨的原因所在。在美国，民主党和共和党的政治家都感受到，由于油价在过去一年中差不多翻了一番，受挫的选民在今年大选年群情激愤──虽然以西欧的标准来看，油价水平依然较低。美国汽车协会(AAA)上周末表示，美国平均汽油价格首次达到每加仑4美元，而自5月底以来，许多州的消费者购买汽油的价格都已高于此数。

Friday's record one-day surge in oil prices will intensify drives by politicians in oil-consuming nations to fix blame for rising oil prices. In the U.S., politicians of both major parties feel the heat in this election year from voters frustrated as gasoline prices have nearly doubled in the past year -- albeit to levels that are still low by the standards of Western Europe. AAA, an organization for drivers, said over the weekend that average gasoline prices in the U.S. hit $4 a gallon for the first time, though consumers in many states already have been paying more since late May.

住在新泽西州Lake Hopatcong 的汽车代理经理马修?鲍尔(Matthew Power)开着一辆大型林肯城市车(Lincoln Town Car)，他说，汽油价格让他不堪重负。他说，美国政府迄今提出的应对高油价的措施只是治标不治本的临时性方案。他希望政府对公众作出解释：油价为何一直上涨。

Matthew Power, a car-dealership manager who lives in Lake Hopatcong, New Jersey, and drives a large Lincoln Town Car, says gasoline prices 'are killing me.' What Washington has proposed so far to deal with the higher oil prices are Band-Aid solutions, he says. And he wants the government to explain to the public why oil prices keep rising.

在国会，民主党参议员们计划在周二对鲍尔这样的选民作出回应，他们打算通过法案，授权美国司法部(Justice Department)起诉石油输出国组织（OPEC，简称：欧佩克)成员，提高对石油交易商的担保要求以抑制投机交易，并向不投资开发可再生替代燃料的石油公司征收暴利税。

In Congress, Senate Democrats plan to respond to voters like Mr. Power on Tuesday by advancing legislation that would allow the Justice Department to bring lawsuits against members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, raise collateral requirements on oil traders to discourage speculative trading, and slap a windfall-profits tax on oil companies that don't invest in renewable alternative fuels.

这一议案不太可能获得共和党议员的支持，从而送到布什总统案头。布什没有正式表示对该议案的立场，但他已经表示要否决过去的一些提出对石油公司课以重税或允许对欧佩克提起限价诉讼的国会议案。

Such a measure is unlikely to survive Republican opposition before reaching President Bush's desk. Mr. Bush hasn't taken a formal position on the bill, but he has threatened to veto past congressional proposals singling out oil companies for higher taxes or allowing price-fixing lawsuits against OPEC.

对于暴利税或抑制投机的举措能在多大程度上控制高涨的油价，经济学家和能源行业人士意见不一。大多数能源行业专家都认为，根本问题在于石油供应量太少，难以满足迅速增长的全球石油需求。

Economists and energy industry executives disagree about the extent to which measures such as a windfall-profits tax or moves to curb speculation will rein in rising oil prices. Most energy industry experts say the fundamental problem is one of too little supply to satisfy quickly rising global demand for oil.

在欧洲，对于如何应对高油价带来的日渐高涨的抗议浪潮，有关官员也是分歧重重。由于大多数欧盟成员国经济增长减缓，加之财政预算紧张，如果削减燃油税，这些国家的领导人可能会面临财政崩溃的境地。英国首相戈登?布朗(Gordon Brown)迄今一直拒绝他所在的工党的议员提出的推迟提高老旧耗油车型的燃油税及公路税的要求。

In Europe, officials also are deeply conflicted over how to respond to a growing wave of protests over high fuel prices. With economic growth slowing and their budgets tight, most European Union leaders could face fiscal ruin if they cut fuel taxes. U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown has so far refused demands from lawmakers in his own Labour Party to postpone a planned increase in fuel duties and to shelve a plan to increase road taxes on older gas-guzzling cars.

与此同时，法国总统尼古拉?萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)已经提出对燃油产品的增值税设定上限。但这个主意被欧元区15国的财政部长们所忽视，后者上周在法兰克福的一次会议上表示，税制变化只会扰乱竞争。

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, meanwhile, has demanded that a value-added tax -- a kind of sales tax -- on fuel products be capped. But that idea has received short shrift from finance ministers of the 15 euro-zone countries, who in a meeting in Frankfurt last week said tax changes would only distort competition.

欧洲财政部长们似乎别无选择，只能含含糊糊地表示要抑制石油市场的投机行为，同时步美国和日本的后尘，每周发布石油存货数据以增加透明度。

European finance ministers seem lost for an alternative, talking vaguely of 'discouraging speculation' in oil markets and increasing transparency by following the U.S. and Japan in publishing weekly data on oil stocks.

与此同时，中国也不太可能出现重大的政策转变。中国日渐增长的石油需求常常被认为是油价高涨的重大原因之一。中国领导人对以8%左右的速度攀升的通胀忧心不已，并担心提高油价以控制需求会在当前的敏感时期令通胀状况恶化。中国面临着巨大的压力，不光要完成耗资数十亿美元的奥运会筹备工作，还必须为5月12日大地震造成的500万无家可归的群众重建家园。一些中国领导人称这次大地震是1949年新中国建立以来最为严重的自然灾害。

Meanwhile, in China -- whose growing oil thirst is often cited as a major contributor to rising prices -- prospects for a radical policy shift are also dim. The country's leaders worry about inflation galloping at around 8%, and fear that raising fuel prices to control demand could worsen it at a sensitive time. Not only is the country under pressure to finish multibillion-dollar preparations for the Olympics in August, but it must also rebuild housing for five million people left homeless after the May 12 earthquake, described by some of China's leaders as the worst natural disaster since modern China was founded in 1949.

本周日，中国国家发改委(NDRC)副主任张国宝表示，高油价是由于对冲基金和其他投机交易资金涌入石油市场造成的，如此高的油价可能会引发市场动荡。

On Sunday, Zhang Guobao, vice chairman of China's National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic policy-making body, said 'detrimental' high oil prices were caused by hedge funds and other speculators investing in oil and could spark instability.

这个周末在日本青森举行的八国集团能源部长及亚洲三大石油消费国部长会议上，如何提高能源使用效率受到了人们的关注，与会人士将其视为应对创纪录油价的最直接办法。八国集团石油部长以及来自中国、印度和韩国的石油部长对上周五油价达到创纪录的每桶138.54美元表示“严重关切”，并同意成立一个伞型组织以在更大范围内推广节能措施、分享节能经验。

At a meeting in Aomori, northern Japan, over the weekend, Group of Eight energy ministers plus officials from three Asian oil consumers put the spotlight on energy efficiency as the most immediate solution to record oil prices. The G-8 representatives and their counterparts from China, India and South Korea voiced their 'serious concerns' at the sharp run-up in crude to a record settlement Friday of $138.54 a barrel and agreed to set up an umbrella body to promote more widespread energy-saving initiatives and to share experience.

石油部长们的声明显示，西方国家在增加供应、降低油价方面并无什么短期措施。

The ministers' statement reflects the reality that Western leaders have few short-term levers for boosting supply and bringing down price.

英国政府表示，将努力增加北海的石油和天然气产量，同时，计划通过税收手段鼓励在某些目前认为无法开采的地区加大勘探力度。不过，这些手段也只能增加几万桶的日产量，难以阻止世界最大产油区之一北海油田长久以来的产量下降趋势。

The U.K. government says it will try to squeeze more output out of the North Sea's oil and gas fields, tinkering with the tax regime to encourage exploration of some fields currently considered unviable. But such moves would add only a few tens of thousands of barrels of oil production a day and would fail to arrest the long-term decline of the North Sea, one of the world's biggest oil provinces.

而在美国方面，共和党和民主党在油价飙升诱因的问题上正争执不下。目前控制国会的民主党认为，高油价是投机交易和欧佩克及石油企业的价格操纵共同作用的结果。

In Washington, meanwhile, Republicans and Democrats are at odds over what is causing the spike in oil prices. Democrats, who control the U.S. Congress, blame a combination of speculative trading and what they view as price-gouging by OPEC members and oil companies.

共和党及布什政府的官员则认为，高油价是世界石油供应跟不上中国、印度等发展中国家需求的上升造成的。在石油行业的怂恿下，国会共和党议员纷纷提议应允许开发美国禁开采区的油气资源，阿拉斯加的北 国家自然保护区等就属于这类地区。

Republicans, including Bush administration officials, tend to argue that the problem is a shortage of supply needed to keep up with rising demand from industrializing countries like China and India. With encouragement from the oil industry, Republican lawmakers are pushing to allow drilling in areas of the U.S. that have been off limits, including the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska.

虽然高油价对石油开采商来说意味着创纪录的利润水平，但看不出石油业人士对周五的创纪录油价感到欣喜。近几个月来，主要石油公司的人多次被要求到国会回答有关价格操纵和牟取暴利的质询。

Although higher prices have meant record profits for oil producers, there was little evidence that industry executives were celebrating Friday's spike. In recent months, representatives of major oil companies have been repeatedly dragged before Congress to answer charges of price manipulation and profiteering.

这些公司始终坚称没有控制价格（大多数专家也支持这个说法），他们还表示，正在将获得的利润投入到石油勘探和开采中去。上周六在俄罗斯举行的一个论坛上，来自各大石油公司的人士表示，他们不仅在美国面临政治因素的挑战，在全世界都是如此。

The companies have consistently said they don't control oil prices -- an argument supported by most experts -- and are using their profits to find and produce more oil. At a forum in Russia on Saturday, executives from major oil companies said they are facing political challenges not just in the U.S. but around the world.

雪佛龙公司(Chevron Corp.)董事长戴维?奥莱利(David O'Reilly)指出，限制开发新的区域是在扩大生产方面遇到的最大障碍。埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)董事长兼首席执行长莱克斯?蒂尔森(Rex Tillerson)则表示，对难以进入新区域开发的担忧助长了油价的上涨。他说，只要有迹象表明将允许开发新区域，就会在市场上产生立竿见影的效果。

Chevron Corp. Chairman David O'Reilly called restricted access to new developments 'the biggest risk in expanding production,' while Exxon Mobil Corp. Chairman and CEO Rex Tillerson said concerns about access to new supplies are fueling the surge in prices. 'Just a signal that such access will be granted would have an immediate effect on the market,' Mr. Tillerson said.

一些迹象表明，业内人士的观点正在影响公众舆论。近期的一项盖洛普民意测验表明，只有20%的美国人认为高油价是石油公司造成的。而一年前的这个比例是34%。

There is some evidence that the industry's arguments are having an impact on public opinion. A recent Gallup poll showed 20% of Americans blamed oil companies for high gasoline prices -- down from 34% a year earlier.

但民主党议员们并没有大量开放新区域以供石油钻探的打算，至少近期没有。他们指出，布什政府任内，在联邦政府土地上进行的石油钻探一直在稳步增加。一些人还认为，需要出台更多措施以鼓励在已被出租的联邦土地上进行油气开发工作。

Democrats in Congress have shown little indication that they are ready to open up large new areas for drilling, at least in the short term. They point out that drilling on federally owned lands has increased steadily during the Bush administration. Some also contend that not enough is being done to encourage development of already-leased federal lands.

众议院自然资源委员会中的民主党议员上周在一份报告中说，美国不能靠增加国内开采量来降低油价。即使增加国内的开采量能够影响汽油价格，也不能说明应该在更多联邦土地上进行石油开采，因为事实证明石油公司尚用不满联邦政府授予它们的开采额度。

'The nation simply cannot drill its way to lower prices at the pump,' the Democratic staff of the House Committee on Natural Resources said in a report last week. 'Even if increased domestic drilling activity could affect the price of gasoline, there is yet no justification to open additional federal lands because oil and gas companies have shown that they cannot keep pace with the rate of drilling permits that the federal government is handing out.'

业内人士表示，有诸多因素限制了石油公司在获准开采地区增加产量的能力。埃克森美孚的蒂尔森上个月对《华尔街日报》表示，之所以没有去开发一些区域，那是因为开采价值不大，或是技术上不具备可行性。

Industry officials say a number of factors limit their ability to quickly ramp up production in those areas. 'If it's not under development, it means it's not economic, or technologically we just haven't figured out how to do it yet,' Exxon Mobil's Mr. Tillerson told The Wall Street Journal last month.

Stephen Power / Guy Chazan / Shai Oster

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080609/ecb130739.asp

美国汽油均价升至每加仑4美元

Gasoline Hits Average Of $4 A Gallon

2008年06月09日16:32

美国的汽油平均价格周日首次达到每加仑4美元，是燃料油价格上涨的又一里程碑，这不仅将进一步打击消费者的信心，还加大了美国经济陷入衰退的风险。

The average price of gasoline in the U.S. hit $4 a gallon for the first time Sunday, the latest milestone in a run-up in fuel prices that is sapping consumer confidence and threatening to nudge the nation into recession.

美国普通汽油平均价创出新高的消息是由美国汽车协会(AAA)宣布的，上周五原油价格每桶大涨近11美元，达到创纪录的138.54美元。按一些指标计算，这是30年来美国人的钱包受油价劫掠最严重的一次。

The record nationwide average for regular-gasoline prices, announced by auto club AAA, follows Friday's near-$11 surge in oil prices to a record $138.54 a barrel. Both are part of what, by some measures, is the worst energy-price shock Americans have faced for a generation, in terms of its toll on their pocketbooks.

最近几天，燃料价格飙升和令人失望的就业数据再次让人们担忧美国经济将陷入衰退，而如果目前已经处于衰退之中的话，那么衰退的程度则会进一步加深。过去一年中，房地产低迷、信贷危机和就业市场疲弱让美国经济受到了沉重打击。燃油价格的上涨会导致家庭预算紧张，打击推动三分之二以上美国经济活动的消费者支出。

In recent days, soaring fuel prices and disappointing employment data have reignited fears that the nation's economy -- which has taken a pounding over the past year from a housing downturn, credit crunch and weakening job market -- will slip into recession, or pull back further if a recession is already under way. Rising fuel prices are straining household budgets, damping the spending that drives more than two-thirds of the nation's economic activity.

Alliance Bernstein的经济学家约瑟夫?卡森(Joseph Carson)说，我们目前看到的是已经走软的消费领域正面临着许多额外压力。这是否成为一个拐点呢？看来正在临近。

'What we're seeing here is a lot of additional pressure on a consumer sector that was soft to begin with,' said Alliance Bernstein economist Joseph Carson. 'Is it a tipping point by itself? It's close.'

汽油价格在过去一年中上涨了29%，目前一直居高不下；而在阿拉斯加和加州等市场，汽油价格几周前就突破了每加仑4美元关口。但全国平均汽油价格从此前的每加仑接近3.99美元窜升到4美元至少会在心理上打击许多美国人。

Gasoline prices, which have risen 29% over the past year, have been high for months, and in some markets, such as Alaska and California, consumers have been paying more than $4 a gallon at the pump for weeks. But the latest increase at the nationwide level from a previous average of nearly $3.99 a gallon seems likely to deliver at least a psychological blow to many Americans.

目前的油价上涨对消费者收入的侵蚀超过了历史上大多数能源价格涨幅最大的时期。如今燃料支出占工资收入的比重已经升至6%以上。卡森称，这个比例超过了1974-75年和1990-91年油价暴涨时的数字，接近了1980-81年期间的7%至8%。

The current drain on consumers' income from rising fuel prices is greater than it was during most of the worst energy-price run-ups of the past. Spending on fuel as a share of wage income has shot above 6%. That exceeds the percentage seen during the 1974-75 and 1990-91 oil-price shocks and approaches the 7% to 8% seen during the 1980-81 price surge, according to Mr. Carson.

他说，相对于近年格外疲弱的收入增长，此次燃料支出的增加对消费者的打击要远高于上述三个时期的任何一个。

Comparing the rise in fuel spending to income growth, which has been especially weak in recent years, the current shock is far worse than any of the three prior ones, he said.

艾奥瓦州53岁的伊冯?布鲁恩(Yvonne Brune)在谈到汽油价格的上涨时称，油价已经失去了控制。布鲁恩白天在一家印刷公司做营销，而晚间和周末则从事婚礼咨询工作。由于汽油价格上涨，她现在午休时已不再往返30英里回家陪她的狗。机票的上涨也让她取消了到德州拜访亲友的计划。她说，我认为航空公司将会面临困境，因为人们都不坐飞机了。

'It's just gotten out of hand,' said 53-year-old Yvonne Brune of Des Moines, Iowa, referring to the rising cost of gasoline. Because of higher gasoline prices, Ms. Brune, who works for a printing company doing marketing on weekdays and separately as a bridal consultant on nights and weekends, no longer makes the drive home at lunchtime -- a 30-mile round trip -- to spend time with her dogs. Because of rising airfares, she has canceled plans for a trip to Texas to visit relatives. 'I think the airlines are going to see their industry implode because people are going to stop flying,' she said.

一些经济学家还抱有希望，认为目前的油价飙升不会像过去那样带来灾难性后果。一个重要的原因是，同70年代中期的油价上涨相比，如今消费者和企业的能源利用效率已明显提高，单位经济产值所需的能源只是当时的一半了。

Some economists hold out hope the current oil-price surge won't be as devastating as some in the past. For one thing, consumers and businesses are far more fuel-efficient today than they were during the oil shock of the mid-1970s, requiring half as much energy to produce a unit of economic output.

利率也远远低于当时，预计美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)将在今年多数时间里维持2%的基准利率不变。与此同时，美元的走软则增加了海外对美国产品的需求，出口的增长也是美国经济在过去半年中尽管缓慢但却继续扩张的重要原因。

Interest rates also are far lower than they were then, and the Federal Reserve is expected to hold its interest-rate target steady at 2% for much of this year. The dollar's weakness, meanwhile, is raising overseas demand for American products, and growth in exports is a key reason why the U.S. economy has continued to expand -- albeit slowly -- over the past six months.

更重要的是，虽然燃料成本持续增加，但消费者在过去五年里却显示出了出乎意料的承受力。美国银行(Bank of America)的经济学家彼得?克莱兹莫尔(Peter Kretzmer)说，尽管经济显然会在今后几个季度中面临更大困难，但我仍相信消费者能够适应。

Most important, consumers have shown surprising resilience over the past five years, despite continued surges in their fuel costs. 'While it certainly makes it tougher for the economy for the next few quarters, I still believe consumers can adapt,' said Peter Kretzmer, a Bank of America economist.

不过，汽油价格的上涨消耗了消费者本可以用于购买电器、看电影或是度假的资金。这可能也会迫使遭受消费者需求低迷和自身成本提高双重打击的企业精简运营，在已经疲弱的劳动力市场上削减更多工作岗位。政府上周五公布，5月份的失业率已从4月份的5%升至5.5%，5月份美国非农就业人数减少49,000人，为连续第五个月下降。

Still, as gasoline prices climb, they eat up money that consumers might otherwise spend on appliances or movie tickets or vacations. That could force businesses, hit by weaker consumer demand and an increase in their own costs, to pare operations and cut more jobs in an already weak labor market. The government reported Friday that the unemployment rate jumped to 5.5% in May from 5% in April as employers shed 49,000 jobs last month -- a fifth-straight monthly decline.

以税收返还为主要内容的总额1,680亿美元的经济刺激计划减轻了这一冲击的影响，但自从2月份国会通过上述计划以来，每加仑汽油价格又上涨了1美元多，这意味着消费者或许至少需要将返税款里的一部分填到油箱里。

The government's $168 billion economic-stimulus program, largely built around tax-rebate checks, is lessening some of the impact of the current shock. But gasoline prices have increased more than $1 a gallon since the economic-stimulus plan cleared Congress in February, suggesting consumers may have spent at least part of that money to fill their gas tanks.

与此同时，消费者还要承受食品涨价的打击。在俄勒冈州尤尼恩，78岁的丹?汤普森(Dan Thompson)开始自己种植作物，这样就可以不必自己驾车15英里到镇上去购买越来越贵的蔬菜和水果了。“在我看来，现在的油价真是一种犯罪”，他说。

At the same time, consumers are being buffeted by higher food prices. In Union, Ore., 78-year-old Dan Thompson has started to grow his own produce to avoid driving to a town 15 miles away to buy the increasingly pricey fruits and vegetables. 'The gas prices, as far as I'm concerned, are criminal,' he said.

他和妻子决定今年夏天不再像往年那样到亚利桑那州、犹他州和俄勒冈州等地看望子女了。他说：孩子们住的地方至少要开一天的车，今年我们恐怕不能再那么长途跋涉了。

He and his wife also have decided to skip their customary summer trek to Arizona, Utah and Oregon to visit their children. 'The kids live a day's drive away or more,' he said. 'We're probably not going to be able do that this year.'

石油公司表示，他们对原油价格飙升无能为力，他们指出，原油涨价是汽油涨价的主要原因。过去几个月来，炼油厂没能将原油涨价的影响全部转嫁到消费者头上。因此，尽管开采原油的利润一路飙升，但大型石油公司和独立炼油厂炼油业务的利润却一落千丈。

Oil companies say they have little control over soaring crude-oil prices, which they point to as the main cause of higher gasoline prices. Over the past months, the refiners who turn oil into fuels have been unable to pass the full increase in crude-oil prices through to consumers. As a result, while profits from producing oil have skyrocketed, major oil companies and independent refiners have seen earnings from their refining operations collapse.

油价是从2003年每桶30美元左右的价格开始逐步涨上来的，当时伊拉克战争刚刚开始。但高盛首席经济学家简?海休斯(Jan Hatzius)说，开始那几年是在经济强劲增长、信贷宽松、住房价格上涨的形势下发生的。

Oil prices have been rising steadily from around $30 a barrel in 2003, at the start of the Iraq war. But the first few years of those increases occurred 'in a period of strong growth, rising credit availability and rising house prices,' said Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs.

现在的关键问题是：长期而言，油价会回落还是继续高企？如果油价能迅速回落，即使是到100美元左右的水平，也能让汽油价格有所降低，进而缓解消费者受到的压力，改善他们对经济前景的信心。

The key question now: Will oil prices go back down, or remain elevated for the long run? A swift plunge in oil prices, even back to the relatively high level of $100 a barrel, would send gasoline costs lower and, as a result, ease pressure on consumers and improve their confidence in the economy.

而如果到秋天原油价格还在每桶135美元以上、汽油超过每加仑4美元，则美国商业前景可能会改变，美国人很多方面的消费习惯也将发生变化。

But if oil stays above $135 a barrel and gasoline tops $4 a gallon into the fall, that could reshape businesses and lead Americans to change their spending patterns in broader ways.

实际上，像汽车制造、航空、化工和其他一些对石油依赖很大的行业已经感受到了石油涨价之苦。大陆航空(Continental Airlines Inc.)上周表示，由于航空燃油涨价，将裁减3,000个职位，减少11%的运能，将飞机数量减少67架。在它之前，联合航空(United Airlines)和美利坚航空(American Airlines)也采取了类似措施。由于原油和天然气价格居高不下，全球最大化工企业之一陶氏化工(Dow Chemical Co.)计划将产品价格最高上调20%。

Already, auto makers, airlines, chemical companies and others that rely on oil are feeling the pain. Last week, Continental Airlines Inc. said it would cut 3,000 jobs, slash capacity by 11% and remove 67 airplanes from its fleet because of soaring jet-fuel prices. The move followed similar moves to cut capacity by UAL Corp.'s United Airlines and AMR Corp.'s American Airlines. Dow Chemical Co., one of the world's largest chemical manufacturers, is planning to raise its product prices up to 20% as a result of soaring costs for crude oil and natural gas.

百货零售业也受到影响，许多商店销售持平甚至出现下降，而仓储式零售店或折扣零售店销售却持续上涨，原因是经济形势萧条之下，消费者开始转向廉价商品。沃尔玛连锁店(Wal-Mart Stores Inc.)和其他折扣店业务走强，原因是政府的返税增加了消费者手里的可支配收入，但预计这一效应年底前将释放完毕。

Sales at many department stores are flat or declining, though warehouse clubs and discounters are reporting continued gains as shoppers seek bargains in the tough economic climate. Last week, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and other discounters reported strong business, citing the government rebate checks, but that effect is expected to dissipate by year end.

自己经营的唐?帕斯曼(Don Passman)说，汽油涨价让他的收入被吸走了一大块。

Don Passman, a self-employed handyman, said the rising price of gas is increasingly eating into his profits.

6 年前，他的皮卡车加满一箱油只要不到30美元，现在已经超过70美元。住在得克萨斯州埃伦（离达拉斯大约25英里）的帕斯曼由于工作关系需要到达拉斯或该地区其他城镇的客户家里上门服务，减少开车基本是不可能的事。“对我来说汽油涨价简直就像刀架在脖子上，一点办法都没有。”“即使涨到每加仑10美元我还是得开车”。

Six years ago, filling the tank of his pickup truck cost Mr. Passman less than $30. Now, he is paying more than $70. Because of his job, which involves commuting from his home in Allen, Texas, about 25 miles northeast of Dallas, to clients' houses in Dallas and other towns in the area, it is nearly impossible for him to cut back on driving. 'I feel like I'm being held at knifepoint,' he said. 'If they charge $10 a gallon, I'm going to pay it.'

今年43岁的帕斯曼说，汽油涨价的影响已经渗透到生活的方方面面，不论鸡蛋还是面包都在涨价，而人们的收入还是老样子。“不感到惊慌的人只是因为没太关注，”他说。

Mr. Passman, 43 years old, sees the higher prices of oil filtering into the prices of everything else, from eggs to bread, while wages remain steady. 'Anybody that's not scared is not paying attention,' he said.

Sudeep Reddy

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080609/bus163306.asp

石油泡沫行将破裂？

Oil Prices Ready to Sink?

2008年06月05日08:37

石油泡沫是否行将破裂？

Is there an oil bubble that is about to burst?

华尔街一些大机构对此持肯定的看法。他们预计，如果美元走强，一些主要消费国的原油需求走软，石油市场可能会很快掉头向下。他们说，随着一些大型炼油厂和新油田在未来几个月里投产，且中国经济不再一片光明，供应面的紧张状况也会得到缓解。

Some big voices on Wall Street think so, predicting the oil market could tilt sharply south soon if the U.S. dollar strengthens and demand for crude oil weakens in some key consuming countries. Tightness on the supply side could also ease, they say, as some big refineries and new oil fields come onstream over the next few months and the outlook for the Chinese economy clouds over.

但不要寄希望于油价立刻出现大幅下挫。尽管石油价格已从近两周前的每桶133美元的历史高点有所回落，但仍有足够的理由认为，美国基准原油价格整个夏季都将维持在每桶120美元上下。

But don't count on a price plunge just yet. While oil has eased off its record of just over $133 nearly two weeks ago, there are still strong reasons to believe that the benchmark U.S. crude could hover at about $120 a barrel well past summer.

目前的问题是，人们对推动油价不断走高的原因存在很大的分歧。

At issue are deep disagreements over what is driving the run-up in oil prices.

在寻找替罪羊时，美国和一些国家的政府官员目前都把矛头对向了石油期货投机商，称有大量资金流向商品指数基金。但对油价大幅下跌持怀疑态度的人称，关键是供需基本面仍面临大量不利消息，目前市场的紧张状况不太可能在今后几个月缓和。

In the search for scapegoats, many on Capitol Hill in the U.S. and elsewhere are now blaming oil-futures speculators, noting the vast cash inflows into commodity index funds. But those skeptical of a sharp price fall point to a raft of continued gloomy news on the fundamental supply-and-demand side, arguing that an already tight market isn't likely to loosen for months.

过去一周里，看跌油价的呼声越来越高。雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)上周五认为目前的上涨同互联网泡沫时期的疯狂有相似之处：随着油价上涨，华尔街分析师屡屡上调价格预期，促使不断加入的新投资者将油价推到更高的水平，进而推动油价预期也进一步抬高。雷曼兄弟认为，已出现资产泡沫的典型征兆，金融投资者受到了羊群效应的驱使，纷纷追求曾有过的业绩水平。

The bearish argument has grown increasingly loud over the past week. Lehman Brothers on Friday compared the rally to the one-upmanship of the dot-com boom: Wall Street analysts have repeatedly raised their price forecasts as oil prices have soared, driving new investor flows that have pushed prices to still-higher levels, leading to still-higher price forecasts. Lehman sees the 'classic ingredients of an asset bubble,' with financial investors driven by a 'herd' instinct and chasing past performance.

对冲基金经理人乔治?索罗斯(George Soros)也发表了看法。周二他在美国国会作证表示，目前我们正经历房产泡沫的破裂，与此同时，石油和其它大宗商品价格的上涨也出现了泡沫的迹象。不过，索罗斯谨慎认为，石油市场的暴跌一时半会儿还不会出现。

Hedge-fund manager George Soros also has chimed in. 'We are currently experiencing the bursting of a housing bubble and, at the same time, a rise in oil and other commodities which has some of the earmarks of a bubble,' he said Tuesday in prepared testimony before the U.S. Senate. Mr. Soros cautioned, though, that a crash in oil markets was 'not imminent.'

将美元下跌视为油价上涨主要因素的经济学家现在认为，这种关系即将发生逆转。他们表示，鉴于美元出现走强迹象和对通胀的担忧减轻，油价也会走低。美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)主席本?贝南克(Ben Bernanke)周二表示进一步减息的可能性不大，这也给美元注入了一些上涨动力。

Economists who have cited the dollar's fall as a key factor in the rising price of oil now argue that that linkage is set to reverse. With the dollar now showing signs of strength, and the fears of inflation ebbing, oil prices also should fall, they say. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comment Tuesday that further interest-rate cuts are unlikely gave the dollar another upward jolt.

为了支持石油狂热与互联网泡沫的相似性，雷曼兄弟举出证据称，包括主权财富基金在内的机构投资者一直在增加对大宗商品的投资。雷曼兄弟计算，从2006年1月到2008年4月中旬，有900多亿美元的新增资金流入到商品指数类资产管理基金中。该公司称，每流入1亿美元新资金，西德克萨斯中质油的价格就上涨1.6%。

To back its dot-com analogy, Lehman Brothers cites evidence that institutional investors, including sovereign-wealth funds, have been increasing their exposure to commodities. The investment house calculates that from January 2006 to mid-April 2008, more than $90 billion of incremental investor flows was devoted to assets under management by commodity indexes. It said for every $100 million in new inflows, the price of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, increased by 1.6%.

不过也有人不同意投资驱动油价上涨的观点。巴克莱(Barclays Capital)驻伦敦分析师保罗?霍内尔(Paul Horsnell)称，如果供应量在五年内不能增加，而需求像前四、五年那样继续增长的话，那么石油就应该是现在这个价格。他说，油价将继续挑战高位，除非供需状况出现明显变化。

Yet others dispute the view that the run-up in crude oil is investor-driven. 'This is the price you get if supply doesn't expand for five years and demand continues to grow as it has done for the last four to five years,' says Paul Horsnell, an analyst with Barclays Capital in London. Prices will 'continue testing upward' unless the supply-and-demand picture changes substantially, he says.

其他人也对投资推动油价上涨的证据提出质疑。

Others have also disputed the evidence that investors are driving up the price of crude.

商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trading Commission)首席经济学家杰弗里?哈里斯(Jeffrey Harris)上月在给美国参议院的证词中表示，尽管西德克萨斯中质油的期货合约价格在过去14个月中上涨了一倍多，理财账户持有的头寸变化非常小。

In written testimony to the U.S. Senate last month, Jeffrey Harris, chief economist of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said that while futures-contract prices for WTI have more than doubled during the past 14 months, managed-money positions, as a fraction of the overall market, have changed very little.

他写道，投机头寸的变化并未放大原油期货的价格变化。具体来说，近期原油价格的上涨是在投机净头寸没有明显变化的情况下出现的。他还表示，没有证据表明投机头寸的变化先于原油期货合约价格的变化。

'Speculative position changes have not amplified crude-oil futures price changes,' he wrote. 'More specifically, the recent crude-oil price increases have occurred with no significant change in net speculative positions.' He also said there was no evidence that position changes by speculators 'precede price changes' for crude-oil-futures contracts.

霍内尔等人表示，油价在急升到每桶133美元后正在寻求新的平衡。即使通常看跌油价的美国能源部也认为油价不会很快下跌。能源部下属能源情报署(Energy Information Administration)的负责人盖伊?卡鲁索(Guy Caruso)周一表示，全球石油供应依然紧张，他预计到2009年油价将保持在每桶100美元之上。

Mr. Horsnell and others contend that after their precipitous rise to $133, oil prices are now seeking a new equilibrium. Even the normally bearish U.S. Energy Department doesn't see prices falling far anytime soon. Guy Caruso, head of the department's Energy Information Administration, cited continued tight global supplies Monday when he predicted that oil will stay above $100 a barrel through 2009.

有人认为，油价居高不下的主要因素是今年以来墨西哥、俄罗斯和委内瑞拉等部分主要出口国的石油产量意外大幅减少。石油输出国组织(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, 简称：欧佩克)中的主要产油国自去年下半年以来基本保持了产量稳定。

The main factor cited for sustained high prices is the surprisingly steep fall so far this year in production from some of the world's key exporters, particularly Mexico, Russia and Venezuela. The big producers within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have largely held their output steady since late last year.

尽管美国的需求出现下降，但多数发展中国家对柴油等成品油的渴求并未放缓。

Despite declining demand in the U.S., the thirst for petroleum products -- above all diesel -- continues apace in much of the developing world.

最近中国四川发生的强烈地震导致当地发电厂发生严重破坏，中国也被迫千方百计地筹措柴油供数千台发电机使用。海湾国家国内需求的增长阻碍了原油出口量的增加。

Rocked by the recent earthquake, China is now scrounging for all available sources of diesel to power thousands of generators that have taken the place of downed power plants. Surging domestic demand among Persian Gulf countries also continues to nibble away at available oil exports.

霍内尔说，解铃还须系铃人，只有供需面发生重大变化才能扭转当前这种局面。但目前我们还未看到这种情况出现。

'What will turn this around is a real change in what has pushed this up in the first place, which would be a notable shift on the supply-demand front,' said Mr. Horsnell. 'So far, we aren't seeing that.'

雷曼兄弟属于预计供需平衡将在未来几个月发生变化的阵营。沙特阿拉伯的新油田很快就将投产，新开工的大型炼油厂也将缓解生产瓶颈，给油品市场带来更大的竞争。俄罗斯已实施了减税政策，许多人预计此举将拉动停滞不前的石油产量。

Lehman is in the camp that expects the supply-demand balance to change in the coming months. New Saudi oil production should come onstream soon, as well as big new refineries that will ease bottlenecks and bring greater competition in oil-products markets. Russia is enacting tax breaks that many hope will lift stagnant oil production.

与此同时，随着西方国家经济开始减速，作为出口大国的中国其石油需求增幅预计也将出现回落。中国在奥运会前一直在屯积成品油，随着赛事结束，进口量可能会下降。

Meanwhile, oil-demand growth is expected to ease in fuel-hungry China, as the economic slowdown in its Western export markets takes hold. China also has been stockpiling fuel in the run-up to the Olympics, and with the Games over, imports might slow.

雷曼兄弟分析师迈克尔?沃德隆(Michael Waldron)说，所有这些都表明，石油价格将出现大幅调整。不过他预计年底前不太可能出现这种情况。

All this could 'set the stage for a significant correction' in the oil price, says Michael Waldron, an analyst with Lehman. Yet even he predicts that may not happen before the end of the year.

GUY CHAZAN / NEIL KING JR.

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080605/fea084915.asp

通用汽车将关闭四家北美工厂并对悍马品牌展开战略评估

2008年6月3日 22:29

通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp., GM)称，面对美国皮卡和运动型多用途车(SUV)销量大幅下滑的局面，该公司将关闭四家北美工厂并加快推出车型较小的轿车。

为了实现到2010年节省成本大约10亿美元的目标，通用汽车称，如果市场需求状况许可，将在2009年停止位于加拿大安大略省Oshawa的卡车装配厂的生产，并在2010年关闭俄亥俄州Moraine的SUV工厂，以及在2009年年底之前关闭威斯康星州Janesville的中型卡车工厂。通用汽车还将在2008年关闭墨西哥的一家中型卡车工厂。

通用汽车还对其悍马(Hummer)品牌展开了战略评估，不排除可能出售该品牌，同时重申了生产Chevy Volt电动汽车的决心。

首席执行长瓦格纳(Rick Wagoner)表示，上述措施都是对油价快速上涨及其对美国带来的改变所作出的反应，虽然部分措施，特别是削减产能，非常艰难，但对于适应不断变化的市场和经济形势以及保持并推进美国业务重振进程，这些措施是必要的。

瓦格纳拒绝透露有多少职位将肯定受到影响，但从他给出的初步估计数字推断，可能会有近10,000个职位受影响。

-By John D. Stoll, The Wall Street Journal; 248-204-5533

(Neal E. Boudette and Stephen Wisnefski contributed to this article.)

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080603/MKT222928.asp

中国汽车零部件厂商──强者弥坚 弱者愈弱

China's Auto-Parts Makers May Be OK

2008年05月30日14:50

经过了多年的高速增长后，中国的许多汽车零部件制造商开始出现了减速迹象，工资上涨、人民币升值和原材料价格攀升都是它们不得不面对的难题。不过分析师表示，该行业中的一些老牌企业仍是不错的投资选择。

AFTER YEARS of rapid growth, many of China's auto-parts makers seem to be hitting a speed bump as they cope with climbing wages, an appreciating local currency and rising raw-materials prices. But, analysts say, some of the industry's most established players remain good buys.

在这些企业中，面临最大挑战的是像浙江万丰奥威汽轮股份有限公司(Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel Co., 简称：万丰奥威)这样的轮胎制造商，以及汽车所需各种塑料部件的生产厂家，原因之一在于石油和铝材等商品价格的上涨推高了它们的成本。而另一方面，分析师认为，在上海证交所上市的福耀玻璃工业集团股份有限公司(Fuyao Group Glass Industries, 简称：福耀玻璃)和在香港上市的信义玻璃控股有限公司(Xinyi Glass Holdings)等汽车玻璃生产商则可能表现更好，因为它们具有稳固的市场占有率。

Among the companies facing the biggest challenges are wheel makers, such as Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel, and producers of the myriad molded plastic parts used to make cars -- in part because the soaring price of commodities like oil and aluminum are jacking up their costs. Auto-glass makers, such as Shanghai-traded Fuyao Group Glass Industries and Hong Kong-traded Xinyi Glass Holdings, on the other hand are likely to fare better because of solid market shares, analysts say.

联合证券(Lianhe Securities)驻深圳分析师姚宏光表示，今年是汽车零配件企业调整的一年。强者恒强，弱者更弱。

'This year is a correction year for auto parts,' says Yao Hongguang, a Shenzhen-based analyst for Lianhe Securities. 'The strong will be stronger, the weak, weaker.'

中国汽车零配件行业的利润增速今年开始放缓。中国国家统计局(National Statistics Bureau)的数据显示，2008年前两个月的全行业利润比上年同期增长了37%，而2007年的同期数据比2006年增长了90%以上。出口增幅也出现回落。今年第一季度，汽车零部件出口额增长了24%，低于上年同期的33%和2007年全年的35%。

Profit growth for China's auto-parts industry has slowed this year. Total industry profits grew 37% in the first two months of 2008 from the same period a year earlier, compared with more than 90% growth in January and February 2007, according to China's National Statistics Bureau. Export growth has also throttled down. In the first quarter of this year, auto-parts exports grew 24%, down from 33% in the same period a year earlier and from 35% for all of 2007.

天相投资顾问(TX Investment Consulting)驻北京分析师王明存说，总体出口形势显然不好。王明存最近将她跟踪的汽车零配件类股的评级从增持下调到了中性。她说，随着钢铁和铝等原材料成本的增加，以及劳动力成本的上升和人民币的升值，中国的出口优势已经不如以往了。

'The general situation for exports is definitely not good,' says Wang Mingcun, a Beijing-based analyst for TX Investment Consulting. Ms. Wang recently downgraded the auto-parts stocks she covers to 'neutral' from 'overweight.' 'With the booming cost of raw materials like steel and aluminium, the rising labor cost and the yuan appreciation, China won't have the same export advantages as before.'

联合证券的姚宏光对在深圳上市的万丰奥威股票的评级为中性。他说，在成本上升和人民币升值的环境下，该公司过于依赖对海外的出口。万丰奥威约有三分之二的产品销往海外。姚宏光说，他认为该股股价近期难有上升空间。

Mr. Yao of Lianhe Securities has a neutral rating on Wanfeng Auto Wheel, which lists A shares -- denominated in Chinese yuan and available mainly for domestic investors -- in Shenzhen. The company is heavily dependent on exports in an era of rising costs and an strengthening local currency, he says. About two-thirds of Wanfeng's sales go overseas. 'I don't see any room for its share price to rise soon,' says Mr. Yao.

今年第一季度万丰奥威的收入比上年同期下降了4.6%，至人民币3.835亿元（约合5,520万美元），但其净利润却增长了81%，为1,850万元。有分析师认为这主要是因为公司将重点放在了接获利润率更高的订单上。周四，万丰奥威下跌3%，收于8.20元。

While Wanfeng's revenue slipped 4.6% in the first quarter from a year ago to 383.5 million yuan ($55.2 million), its net profit jumped 81% to 18.5 million yuan, which one analyst believes resulted from the company concentrating on orders with higher margins. On Thursday, shares of Wanfeng fell 3% to close at 8.20 yuan.

人民币兑美元汇率自2005年7月政府放松汇率管制以来已累计上涨了14%以上，其中人民币的大部分升值是在去年实现的。周一，人民币汇率升至1美元兑6.94元，创出了历史新高。人民币走强会提高中国商品在海外市场的售价。

China's currency has appreciated more than 14% against the U.S. dollar since the government began liberalizing the exchange rate in July 2005 -- much of that in the past year. The currency hit 6.94 against the dollar on Monday, a record high. A stronger yuan makes Chinese goods relatively more expensive in foreign markets.

万丰奥威投资者关系部门的管理人员徐晓芳说，人民币升值给我们公司带来了很大影响，我们会竭尽全力谋求生存。

'Yuan appreciation has a big impact on our enterprise. We just try our best to survive,' says Xu Xiaofang, an official in the investor-relations department at Wanfeng.

不过，一些分析师认为人们对汽车零部件行业有些过于担忧了，尤其是对那些业内领头公司来说。花旗集团(Citigroup)驻香港分析师张文龙(Charles Cheung)认为，中国汽车零部件企业前景光明；同印度和墨西哥相比，中国仍占有优势。

Still, some analysts think concerns about the auto-parts sector are overblown, especially for the industry's top companies. 'I see a bright future for Chinese auto parts,' says Charles Cheung, an analyst at Citigroup in Hong Kong. 'Compared with India and Mexico, China still has advantages.'

张文龙说，劳动力成本的增加不大可能会损害优秀的汽车零部件企业。在中国，劳动力成本仅占零件生产成本的5%左右，而在美国和欧盟，这个比例是20%- 30%。他说，中国企业还能将产地从成本较高的沿海地区转移到工资水平较低的中国西部。至于原材料涨价，张文龙指出，这是影响到世界各地生产商的全球性现象，他们因而有可能将增加的成本转嫁到客户身上。

Mr. Cheung says labor-cost increases are unlikely to hurt the better auto-parts companies. In China, labor accounts for only about 5% of the cost of producing parts, compared with 20% to 30% in the U.S. or European Union. Chinese companies can also shift production away from more expensive coastal cities to lower-wage areas in western China, he says. As for rising raw-material prices, Mr. Cheung points out that it is a global phenomenon affecting producers everywhere, making it possible for manufacturers to pass along the added costs to their customers.

这位花旗集团分析师对信义玻璃(Xinyi Glass)股票的评级为买进。该公司生产汽车前挡夹层玻璃和钢化玻璃，是中国出口量最大的汽车玻璃生产商。张文龙在研究报告中写道，该公司的备件销售业务一直保持稳定增长，并一直在增加对中国国内汽车厂家的原装产品销售。他认为该股1年期的目标价格为10.30港元，比周四6.86港元（约合88美分）的收盘价高出约50%。

The Citigroup analyst has a buy on Xinyi Glass. The company, which makes laminated windshields and tempered side windows, is China's largest auto-glass exporter by volume. It has had steady growth in sales for the replacement-parts market and has been increasing original-equipment sales to Chinese domestic auto manufacturers, Mr. Cheung wrote in a report. He gave the stock a one-year target price of HK$10.30 -- 50% above Thursday's close of HK$6.86 (88 U.S. cents).

中银国际(Bank of China International)分析师王玉笙看好在深圳上市的宁波华翔电子股份有限公司(Ningbo Huaxiang Electronic, 简称：宁波华翔)。宁波华翔的主营业务是在国内市场，因此受汇率波动或欧美市场需求低迷的影响不大。此外，宁波华翔持有中国第一汽车集团公司(China FAW Group Corp.)旗下一家子公司49%的股份。第一汽车集团是中国最大的汽车生产企业之一，这就使宁波华翔具备了争取这个大客户的有利条件。王玉笙认为宁波华翔的目标股价是16元，该股周四下跌2.5%，收于13.68元。

Wang Yusheng, an analyst with Bank of China International, likes Ningbo Huaxiang Electronic, which lists A shares in Shenzhen. Huaxiang's main business is in the domestic market, so it is less susceptible to currency fluctuations or weakening demand from the U.S. and Europe. In addition, Huaxiang took a 49% stake in a subsidiary of China FAW Group Corp., one of China's biggest car makers, giving it preferred access to a big customer. Ms. Wang has a target price as 16 yuan for Huaxiang shares, which finished Thursday at 13.68 yuan, down 2.5%.

安信证券(Essence Securities)分析师孙木子说，总的来说，目前形势对汽车零部件出口商而言并非不利。在他看来，如果中国企业的整合能迫使一些严重依赖廉价劳动力成本的公司退出，那么具有技术创新能力、管理完善的企业将会做大做强。

Overall, the current situation 'is not negative for auto-parts exporters,' says Sun Muzi, an analyst for Shenzhen-based Essence Securities. In his view, if a consolidation of Chinese business forces out some companies that depend heavily on keeping labor costs low, then better-managed ones with innovative technologies will get stronger.

Bai Lin

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080530/ahr145706.asp