Japan Autos Hit Pothole
陷入泥潭的日本汽车业
In the nation that gave the world the Honda Accord and Toyota Prius, cars are losing their appeal.
在向世界提供了本田雅阁和丰田普锐斯等车型的日本，轿车的吸引力正在消失。
This loss of appetite didn't begin with the economic slump. Instead a combination of high taxes, bureaucratic hurdles and changing tastes has set in place a secular decline in the world's third-largest auto market.
这种兴趣的下降并非始于经济低迷之时。高税率、政府部门的障碍和口味的改变导致了这个全球第三大汽车市场的长期下滑。
So while Americans might start buying cars again one day, some of Japan's consumers may have given up for good.
因此尽管美国人有朝一日可能会再次开始购买轿车，但部分日本消费者可能已经永远彻底了买车的想法。
On Tuesday, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association projected domestic sales to drop to 4.3 million units in the coming fiscal year. This would be the lowest volume of sales in just over three decades, and the fourth consecutive year of declines.
日本汽车工业协会周二预测，下一财年日本国内的汽车销量将降至430万辆。这将是过去30多年来最低的销售量，也是连续第四年出现下降。
If JAMA's forecast is right, by the end of March 2010 Japan's auto market will have shrunk by more than 23% in four years.
如果日本汽车工业协会的预测是正确的，到2010年3月底时，日本汽车市场将在4年里缩水23%以上。
Car companies are worried. Japan is still Toyota's No. 1 market by revenue; for Honda, it is No. 2.
汽车公司对此忧心忡忡。日本仍是丰田汽车收入最高的市场，是本田汽车收入第二高的市场。
So they are demanding change. Taxes, they say, are the biggest deterrent for buyers. JAMA says the tax burden on a car owner -- about $8,100 -- is 21 times that of the U.S., twice that of France, and one-half more than Germany.
因此它们要求做出改变。它们称，车税负担是阻碍买家的最大因素。日本汽车工业协会说，购车者需要纳税约8,100美元，这个数字是美国的21倍，法国的两倍，比德国高出约50%。
Add to this a further $700 for inspections every two years, which can lead to expensive parts replacements, and annual ones, albeit less expensive ones, for cars more than 10 years old.
除此之外，还有每两年700美元的检查费，这可能导致昂贵的零部件更换；而对使用10年以上的轿车则每年检查一次，只不过费用低一些而已。
The auto lobby says it won't challenge the inspection regime or the cost of getting a driver's license -- upward of $2,000 for lessons.
这家汽车游说组织说，它不会挑战这种检查体制或是获得驾照的成本。为获得驾照可能要花费2,000美元参加培训。
It knows any challenge will be futile as both are closely linked to the police and transport departments, providing cushy postretirement jobs for bureaucrats.
它知道任何挑战都将是徒劳的，因为这两项都同警察和运输部门关系密切，为政府部门提供了轻松赚钱的机会。
But the lobby is considering asking for other changes, including a tax break for scrapping old, gas-guzzling cars, which should help stimulate demand.
但日本汽车工业协会正考虑要求做出其它改变，如对耗油量大的老旧车提供税收优惠，这会有助于刺激需求。
Still, it can't do much about consumer tastes.
不过，在消费者的口味上，它可能无能为力。
Cars are losing their cache, especially with younger Japanese. The number of driving-school graduates has fallen 16% over the past decade, as consumers choose to spend their money elsewhere.
轿车已经风光不再，在年轻的日本人心中就更是如此。由于消费者将钱花到了其它地方，过去10年里，驾校的毕业生数量减少了16%。
Even those buying cars are choosing cheaper ones. These minicars -- with engines of 660cc or less -- yield lower profits for car companies.
即使购车者也选择购买更廉价的轿车。那些排量不到660cc的微型轿车不能为汽车公司创造多少利润。
The smaller cars are expected to account for as much as 40% of total car sales in the year ahead.
预计在今后一年里，预计小排量轿车最高将占到全部轿车销售量的40%。
This slump may never end.
这种低迷景象可能还远未结束。
James Simms
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