Spending Slowdown Will Haunt Oil Prices
油气开发投资减少将推高油价
The slowdown in investment in oil and gas production could lop off nearly eight million barrels a day of future oil supply growth, setting the stage for another big crude price surge in years to come, according to a new study.
新近进行的一项研究显示，在油气开发方面的投资增速放缓有可能使未来的原油供应量每天少增加近800万桶，这将给原油价格今后再度大幅上涨奠定基础。
The global credit crisis and falling oil prices have squeezed oil companies' finances and forced many to cut capital spending and postpone projects. That could have big implications for supply when the global recession ends and demand for energy recovers, the report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates says.
全球信贷危机以及油价不断下跌打击了石油公司的财力，迫使许多石油公司削减了资本支出或推迟了油气开发项目的实施。剑桥能源研究协会(CERA)的研究报告说，当全球衰退结束、能源需求恢复增长时，这种状况可能对世界能源供应产生重大影响。
CERA projected last summer, before the economic crisis set in, that world oil production capacity would rise to 109 million barrels a day by 2014 from the current 94.5 million barrels a day.
CERA去年夏天在此次经济危机爆发前预计，到2014年时世界石油生产能力将从目前的每天9,450万桶增加到每天1.09亿桶。
It now says 7.6 million barrels a day -- or slightly more than half -- of that increase is 'at risk' due to project deferrals or cancellations.
该机构现在则认为，由于一系列油气开发项目被推迟或取消，它所预计的2014年以前世界油气生产能力增加量中，有一半多一点（每天760万桶）有无法实现的危险。
The report says that reduction in capacity is a 'potentially powerful and long-lasting aftershock' following the oil-price slide of 2008, when within a few months crude fell by more than two-thirds, from a record high of $147 a barrel. It's currently trading at around $53 a barrel.
这份报告说，油气生产能力下降是2008年油价下滑后一场“可能威力巨大且长期持续的余震”。在此次油价下跌中，短短几个月时间原油价格就从每桶147美元的历史高点下跌了三分之二以上。目前的原油价格约为每桶53美元。
'A price collapse of this magnitude really registers on the Richter scale, and its impact on levels of future investment will be felt for years,' said CERA Chairman Daniel Yergin in an interview. The report comes amid ample evidence companies are scaling back on investment in costly projects that require a high oil price to be profitable, such as the oil sands of Canada or the ultra-deep waters off west Africa.
CERA的会长丹尼尔?叶金(Daniel Yergin)在接受采访时说，这种程度的油价暴跌真像是一场大地震，其对未来油气投资水平的影响将持续多年。在CERA这份报告发表之际，已有大量证据显示石油公司正纷纷缩减高成本投资项目的规模，这些项目只有油价维持在高位时才能盈利，加拿大的油砂矿和西非的超深海油田就属于这类项目。
Middle East oil producers, hit by falling export revenue, have reined in spending plans. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries says as many as 35 new projects in OPEC countries could now be delayed past 2013. Most major Western oil companies say they're sticking to their big investment plans but even they have said they're slowing down some developments to take advantage of falling costs.
受到出口收入不断下降打击的中东石油生产商已在放慢支出。石油输出国组织(OPEC, 简称：欧佩克)说，目前欧佩克成员国有多达35个新开发项目可能会被推迟到2013年以后进行。虽然多数西方主要石油公司称，会坚持实施其大型投资计划，但即使是它们也表示，正在放慢一些投资项目的进度，以利用成本不断下降带来的好处。
The slowdown is troubling the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based adviser to oil-consuming countries, which has also trimmed its forecast for supply growth due to the fall in oil prices and the lack of available credit.
投资增速放缓使国际能源署(IEA)感到担忧。由于油价下跌以及信贷短缺，这家总部设在巴黎的石油消费国顾问机构已经下调了对能源供应增长量的预测。
The agency's deputy executive director Richard Jones told a conference in London this week that more than two million barrels a day of new oil production capacity that was due on-stream in coming years looks likely to have been deferred for now.
IEA副署长理查德?琼斯(Richard Jones)本周在伦敦的一次会议上说，现在看来，原本预计未来几年中将增加的原油日生产能力中有超过200万桶有可能要推迟实现。
'Unless sufficient companies have the will and financial ability to invest through the downcycle, there is a real risk that supply growth may lag the eventual rebound of demand, leading to substantial price increases -- possibly as early as this year,' Mr. Jones said.
琼斯说，除非足够多的企业有意愿和财力在经济景气下行时投资，否则就存在供应增长赶不上需求反弹速度的真实风险，并会导致油价大幅上涨，这种情况可能最早今年就会出现。
CERA said it expects a large number of new projects in Angola, Nigeria, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and deepwater off Brazil as well as in Canada's oil sands and Venezuela's hard-to-extract heavy oil, to be postponed or canceled due to the low crude price.
CERA说，由于原油价格低迷，它预计安哥拉、尼日利亚和挪威等国以及美国墨西哥湾地区采油业、巴西深海油田开发、加拿大油砂矿和委内瑞拉难以开采的重油等领域将有大量新项目被推迟或取消。
However, the organization noted that with industry costs expected to fall this year, so will the oil price necessary to justify investment in such high-cost projects.
但CERA也指出，鉴于产业成本预计今年将会下降，保证这类高成本投资项目能够获利的油价水平也将下降。
Some projects in the U.K. and Norway are also seen as vulnerable, because the credit crunch is hampering companies' access to capital.
由于信贷危机正在给企业融资造成困难，英国和挪威的一些油气开发项目也有推迟或取消的危险。
Other high-cost ventures, such as new biofuels and projects that seek to turn natural gas and coal into clean-burning transportation fuels are also likely to be affected, the CERA report said.
CERA的报告还说，新型生物燃料以及将天然气和煤炭转化成清洁燃油的其他高成本项目也有可能受到不利影响。
CERA hedged its predictions of supply tightness with uncertainty about the rate at which world oil demand will recover after the recession. If it doesn't begin to rebound next year, as many predict, the oil market could face a 'large surplus of production capacity for the next several years.'
虽然CERA预测说未来可能出现原油供应紧张，但它也表示，无法确定经济衰退结束后世界石油需求将会以多快的速度反弹。CERA说，如果石油需求未像许多人预测的那样从明年起开始反弹，那么石油市场在未来几年中有可能面临严重的产能过剩。
Government policies to counter climate change and increase energy efficiency could also drive down the West's appetite for oil, it said.
CERA还说，各国政府应对气候变化以及提高能源使用效率的政策也有可能降低西方国家对石油的需求。
Guy Chazan
没有评论:
发表评论