Steel Woes Signal Shakeout, Price Cuts
钢铁业困境加剧 可能出现整合和降价
Weak demand is likely to lead to increased losses in the world steel industry next quarter, which could prompt consolidation, the shakeout of marginal players and lower prices, much of the industry now predicts.
钢铁业许多人士现在预计，由于需求疲软，世界钢铁行业下个季度亏损可能加大，从而有可能促使该行业发生整合，小企业被挤出市场，并导致市场价格走低。
'The demand for steel is virtually nonexistent,' says Dan DiMicco, CEO of steelmaker Nucor Corp., which reported a $189.6 million loss and said it expected a wider loss in the second quarter.
钢铁企业Nucor Corp.首席执行长迪米科(Dan DiMicco)说，现在基本上不存在钢材需求。该公司公布一季度出现1.896亿美元亏损，并预计二季度将发生更大亏损。
Steelmakers were hoping the first quarter would be its worst, in terms of losses, for 2009. Early signs that the housing market would pick up, that stimulus spending for projects such as bridges would boost consumption, and that an auto bailout would shore up a key steel customer were taken as clues that the steel market was headed for a turnaround.
钢铁企业本来希望，一季度的亏损将是2009年最严重的。初步迹象显示，住房市场会回升，用于桥梁建设等项目的刺激性开支将提升钢材消耗，一项汽车业救助计划将能提振一家主要钢材用户。基于这一看法，人们似乎可以认为钢材市场即将走向好转。
Moreover, other commodities, including copper, have begun showing signs of life after nearly five months of plummeting demand. Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold Inc., the largest copper producer in the U.S., said it expects copper prices to rise compared to the first three months of this year due in part to lower world inventories.
此外，包括铜在内的其他大宗商品在经历接近5个月的需求大跌之后已显示出复苏迹象。美国最大的铜生产商Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold Inc.称，它预计铜价将较今年头3个月有所上升，部分原因是全球铜库存较低。
Prices of nickel, used in appliances and stainless steel, and lead used in electrodes and machinery also appear to be firming. Those commodities are showing improvement mostly because supply and demand are beginning to match.
镍和铅的价格似乎也在企稳。镍用于制造家电和生产不锈钢材料，铅用于电极材料和制造机械设备。这些大宗商品之所以显示出好转迹象，主要是因为供需水平开始匹配。
To be sure, the price of all these commodities is much lower, often in the range of 50%, when compared to this time last year.
当然，所有这些大宗商品的价格还都非常低，往往只相当于去年同期50%左右的水平。
'As we have progressed from September 2008 to March 2009, we have seen business and market conditions worsen each succeeding month,' Charlotte, N.C.-based Nucor said in a statement. 'Entering the second quarter of 2009, both the U.S. economy and steel market conditions have continued to deteriorate.'
Nucor在一份声明中说，在2008年9月到2009年3月期间，我们看到商业和市场环境逐月恶化。进入2009年二季度之后，美国经济和钢材市场的形势在继续恶化。
Global crude-steel production fell in March in every major market, including China, which had increased production earlier in the year. The biggest drop was felt in North America, where production fell 52%, while Europe production fell 44%.
今年3月，全球各主要市场的粗钢产量都在下降。中国市场也不例外，今年早些时候，中国的产量有所增加。下跌最大的在北美，跌幅达52%。欧洲的跌幅是44%。
Nearly every major Chinese steelmaker has predicted losses for April, said Zhang Xiaogang, vice-chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association. Those losses are expected to continue, he said Tuesday.
中国钢铁工业协会(China Iron and Steel Association)副会长张晓刚说，中国几乎每家大钢厂都预计4月份将发生亏损。周二他说，这些损失预计将会继续。
The problem is that steelmakers ramped up production in anticipation of higher demand from new construction and investment through the Chinese stimulus package. But those projects take a while to get going, leaving the industry with too much, too soon.
问题是，钢铁企业认为，中国的经济刺激计划带来的新的建设和投资项目将推高钢材需求，因此它们纷纷加紧生产。但是，这些项目要经过一段时间才会落实，钢铁业显得行动太早、做得太多。
If demand doesn't pick up soon, the industry will have to consolidate, with marginal players being bought out or closing. Mr. Zhang indicated such consolidation is critical if the steel industry wants to obtain pricing power with their suppliers, mainly iron-ore producers.
如果需求不能迅速回升，钢铁业将不得不进行整合，一些小企业将被买断或关闭。张晓刚认为，如果钢铁业希望得到针对供应商──主要是铁矿石企业──的定价权，这样的整合将至关重要。
Across Europe, steelmakers don't see an upturn anytime soon, Europe's steel association, Eurofer, said Thursday.
欧洲钢铁工业联盟Eurofer周四说，在整个欧洲，钢铁企业还没出现迅速好转的迹象。
'Orders intakes at EU steel mills are expected to be at unprecedented low levels for the time being,' Eurofer said. Steel consumption in the first half of this year is expected to fall 40% to 45% compared with last year.
Eurofer说，预计欧盟钢铁厂这段时间收到的订单将降到从未有过的低水平。今年上半年，钢材消耗量预计将较去年下降40%-45%。
In the U.S., the deepening woes of the automakers translate into far fewer orders for steel.
在美国，汽车业困境加剧意味着钢材订单大大减少。
General Motors Corp. is expected to idle most of its plants this summer for two months -- one of the longest hiatuses ever. That means big automotive suppliers AK Steel Holding Corp., U.S. Steel Corp. and ArcelorMittal likely will see further erosion in steel sales.
预计通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)今年夏天将把大部分工厂闲置两个月，这将是通用汽车历史上历时最长的停产之一。这意味着，AK Steel Holding Corp.、U.S. Steel Corp.和安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)等大型汽车业供应商的钢材销售将进一步受到侵蚀。
This week, AK Steel said it believed the worst was behind it. James L. Wainscott, chairman, president and CEO, said its first quarter $100 million loss would be narrowed to $50 million in the second quarter and that the West Chester, Ohio-based integrated steelmaker could swing to a profit by year end.
AK Steel本周表示，它相信最糟糕的时候已经过去。该公司董事长、总裁兼首席执行长威斯科特(James L. Wainscott)称，公司一季度1亿美元的亏损到二季度将收窄到5,000万美元，到年底，公司将能扭亏为盈。
He further noted that orders had begun edging up slightly in March, even from the most troubled sectors, automotive and construction.
他进一步指出，3月份的订单已开始小幅上升，即使是来自情况最糟糕的汽车业和建筑业的订单也是如此。
Nucor's Mr. DiMicco said that the steel business is so weak that more price cuts are possible because of building inventory and weak demand.
Nucor的迪米科说，钢材业务实在太疲软，由于库存还在增加且需求低迷，有可能会进一步降价。
He also said that Nucor's pessimistic outlook, which is more so than other steelmakers', is more realistic. 'We haven't hit a bottom yet,' he said. 'This is a very realistic view of the world ahead of us.'
他说，Nucor比其他钢铁企业更悲观的预期实际上更现实。他说，我们尚未触底。对我们前面的世界，这是一个非常现实的展望。
Robert Guy Matthews
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