The End Of The Road Is Nigh
美国汽车业救助方案贵在公平
Rick Wagoner can take some comfort in his ouster from the top job at General Motors. At least there is now no possibility he will preside over the bankruptcy of a 20th-century American icon.
被迫卸去通用汽车公司(General Motors)首席执行长一职的瓦格纳(Rick Wagoner)应能得到些许安慰。因为这家身为20世纪美国象征的企业至少不会在他任内宣布破产了。
For despite the 60-day stay of execution granted to GM by the U.S. administration, a Chapter 11 filing remains a distinct possibility, as the Auto Task Force stated explicitly on Monday. The sheer scale of the auto maker's balance sheet is the central problem.
尽管美国政府给了通用汽车60天暂缓申请破产的宽限期，但政府的汽车业专责小组周一明确表示，该公司仍存在申请破产的明确可能。这家汽车生产商资产负债表的庞大规模是问题的核心所在。
John Murphy, analyst at Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch, calculates obligations including those to workers amount to $62 billion, 35 times GM's market capitalization.
据美林(Merrill Lynch)分析师墨菲(John Murphy)计算，通用汽车包括拖欠工人钱款在内的债务额达620亿美元，相当于其市值的35倍。
Even assuming that stakeholder concessions cut that burden in half, loans already provided by various governments and those GM has requested would push it back toward the current level.
即使假定通用汽车的各利益相关方作出让步可以使该公司的债务额减少一半，但如果算上政府已向通用提供的各项贷款以及该公司要求提供的贷款额，这家公司的债务额又会回升至原有水平。
Whether or not the Auto Task Force's aggressive language in its rejection of GM's and Chrysler's survival plans forces stakeholders to reach a viable agreement outside court, this is a welcome development on several fronts.
无论汽车业专责小组在拒绝接受通用和克莱斯勒扭亏计划时的强硬言论能否迫使两公司的利益相关方与两家公司达成可行的庭外和解协议，从几个方面看，这一表态本身还是值得欢迎的。
The notion that Detroit is too big to fail needed to be qualified. The explicit rejection of Chrysler's ability to go it alone also is useful.
那种认为美国汽车业三巨头因规模太大而不能破产的想法未必站得住脚了。明确拒绝克莱斯勒想继续单干的想法也有积极意义。
This was demonstrated by the company rushing out an upbeat statement on the chances of a partnership with Italy's Fiat -- so upbeat Chrysler quickly issued a clarification toning it down.
这种积极意义体现在克莱斯勒急忙抛出它很有可能与意大利菲亚特公司(Fiat)结成合作伙伴的声明上。这份声明的内容太过乐观了，以致于该公司又不得不迅速发文以淡化声明的乐观情绪。
Closing Chrysler down instead would remove roughly 14% of U.S. light-vehicle manufacturing capacity, taking it to roughly 14.5 million vehicles. That is still a lot higher than the 10 million or so that might be sold this year, including imports, but much closer to what might be sustainable in the medium term.
让克莱斯勒关门将使美国轻型车生产能力减少约14%，至1,450万辆左右。虽然这仍比美国轻型车市场今年1,000万辆（包括进口车）的预计销量高许多，但已朝市场中期内可以持续的水平大大迈进了一步。
Toward the end of President Barack Obama's speech on Monday, he also announced potential further support to help bolster demand. A program to encourage drivers to trade in older cars for more efficient new ones would be in keeping with the administration's desire to cut oil consumption.
但奥巴马总统在周一讲话接近尾声时还是宣布，政府有可能进一步出台措施以支撑汽车需求。一项鼓励驾车者以旧车折价换购节能型新车的计划符合奥巴马政府减少美国石油消费量的愿望。
Barclays Capital analyst Brian Johnson estimates that, assuming half of the country's 250 million vehicles are more than eight years old, encouraging drivers to trade in just 2% of those older cars would equate to new sales of 2.5 million vehicles.
Barclays Capital分析师约翰逊(Brian Johnson)估计，假设美国2.5亿辆现有汽车中有一半的车龄超过八年，只需鼓励驾车人将这些旧车中的2%折价换购成新车，就能创造250万辆的新车销售量。
Such a program would have the added benefit of spreading the aid more fairly. It would help the industry across the board, including Ford Motor, which has managed to avoid the need for federal aid.
这种以旧换新项目还具有更公平分配政府汽车业救助资金的效用。它能使汽车工业普遍受益，包括福特汽车公司(Ford Motor)，后者一直努力避免向联邦政府提出救助要求。
More equitable measures are important, given the Auto Task Force's apparent desire to recast GM as a leader in fuel efficiency after restructuring. Airlines used Chapter 11 to slash costs and obligations earlier this decade, which was crucial to their coping with last year's oil-price spike.
鉴于汽车业专责小组显然希望将重组后的通用汽车重塑为提高汽车燃油使用效率的先锋，确保汽车业救助计划能够更加公平是很重要的。美国航空业本世纪初借助破产保护削减了成本和债务，这对它们去年能够经受住油价大幅上扬的考验起了至关重要的作用。
It is crucial that Ford doesn't get 'punished' for its better management in the longer term through the government creating a leaner competitor freed from the mistakes of its past.
同样至关重要的是，不能让福特汽车公司因经营较为出色而受到“惩罚”，因为通用汽车在政府帮它卸去历史包袱后将能“轻装上阵”，与福特汽车竞争。
Liam Denning
没有评论:
发表评论