Oil Can't Soothe Troubled Waters
油价下跌为何未能缓解美国经济困境？
Expensive oil burned the U.S. economy. So why isn't cheaper oil more soothing?
高昂的油价“烧焦”了美国经济。那现在油价便宜了，为什么也没能对经济起到更好的缓解作用呢？
The U.S. burned 138 billion gallons of gasoline last year, each costing an average $3.33. The average is less than $2 so far this year, implying an annualized saving of $195 billion, or 1.4% of gross domestic product. Cheaper utility bills and lower inflation are extra benefits.
美国去年全年消耗了1,380亿加仑汽油，每加仑平均价格为3.33美元。今年迄今的汽油均价不到2美元，也就是说折合年率节省了1,950亿美元，占国内生产总值(GDP)的1.4%。而水电账单降低、通胀减弱更是油价下跌带来的额外好处。
Yet Americans are driving fewer miles from a year earlier, and consumer spending remains weak.
然而美国人的行车里程数却较上年同期出现下降，消费开支也仍然疲弱。
There are several reasons why gasoline's 'stimulus check' of $639 per American doesn't do more. One is timing: It takes only a second to burn your hand but much longer for it to heal. Fixing Detroit, for example, will take years.
油价的下跌相当于给每个美国人派发了639美元的“刺激支票”，然而却未能发挥更大作用，这种情况缘于几个方面的原因。其一是时间：你的手烧伤只需要一秒，但愈合的时间要长得多。举例来说，修复底特律的汽车行业就得用很多年。
Higher fuel prices also added an extra burden to homeowners at a critical time for them and their lending banks, especially those in suburban developments far from city-center workplaces.
在房主以及贷款给他们的银行处于危急关头之时，高油价也给房主造成了额外的负担，尤其是住在市郊开发区、远离市中心工作地点的房主。
Rising unemployment means fewer commuters, so the benefit of lower fuel costs is largely lost on them anyway. The attendant financial crisis also means many drivers' ability to pay fuel bills with their credit cards has been curtailed. Meanwhile, memories of the oil-price spike will linger.
失业率高涨意味着每天上下班通勤的人少了，因此这些人基本上也就享受不到油价下跌的好处。随之而来的金融危机还意味着许多开车人无法以信用卡支付油费。与此同时，人们对油价疯涨的时候还记忆犹新。
As with other stimulus payments, therefore, the fear generated by the broader economic dislocation means fuel savings will be largely saved rather than spent. In the fourth quarter, Americans squirreled away money at an annualized rate of $337 billion -- little wonder, given household net worth fell $11.2 trillion last year. Against wealth destruction of that magnitude, cheaper gasoline offers some help but can't kick-start the economy.
这样一来，因为整体经济混乱而引发的担忧就意味着，人们会将在燃料方面省下来的钱存起来，而不会花出去，就跟其他一些经济刺激款项一样。去年第四季度，美国人的储蓄折合年率为3,370亿美元－－这没什么可惊讶的，考虑到去年美国家庭财产净值缩水了11.2万亿美元。面对如此程度的财产损失，油价下跌对经济有所帮助，但光靠它还是无力回天。
Liam Denning
没有评论:
发表评论