GM Still Faces Tricky Curves
2008年02月05日17:03
初看上去，通用汽车(General Motors) 2008年的开局相对不错。虽然其他汽车生产商1月份的销售普遍下挫，但该公司销量却逆市上扬。人们对通用汽车可能需出手救援GMAC Financial Services旗下按揭贷款子公司的担心也已缓解。通用目前仍持有这家公司49%的股份。
At first glance, General Motors has gotten off to a relatively good start in 2008. While other auto makers' sales slipped in January, GM bucked the trend and posted a gain. Fears have eased about a possible bailout for the mortgage arm of GMAC Financial Services, of which GM still owns 49%.
其结果是，通用汽车的股价在周一下挫近5%之前的两周时间内跃升了27%。
As a result, GM's stock price had jumped 27% in the past two weeks before declining nearly 5% yesterday.
但投资者们最好还是别急着增持该股，明智的话现在要踩一踩刹车了。
Rather than hit the accelerator, however, investors would be wise to tap the brakes.
通用的核心业务汽车制造在北美地区依然面临严峻局面， 虽然采取了一些大规模的成本削减措施，但这块业务今年要想接近盈亏平衡恐怕仍非易事。
GM still has serious kinks in its core automotive business in North America, and, despite some big cost cuts, it may be challenged to come close to breaking even this year.
通用汽车1月份在北美市场销售上升要部分归因于打折、促销力度的大幅加强，而这势必导致利润率的下降。随着美国经济增长放缓，要继续吸引消费者购车，通用今年全年可能都需将促销力度维持在高水平。
The rise in January sales in the U.S. came in part as a result of a surge in rebates and incentives, which erode profit margins. GM may have to keep incentive levels high through the year to lure buyers into showrooms amid the slowing U.S. economy.
而该公司最赚钱的产品卡车和运动型多用途车(SUV)的销售却在下滑，销售实现增长的是利润较低的轿车。
Sales of its most-profitable products -- trucks and sport-utility vehicles -- are declining, while sales of cars, which generate less profit, are increasing.
通用汽车的轿车业务已出现改观，在这方面该公司重新设计并大力促销的雪佛兰美宜堡(Chevrolet Malibu)轿车堪称代表。通用提高轿车内饰豪华度等改进措施是有代价的，美宜堡等改版轿车的材料成本上升一定程度上抵消了其在节约成本方面取得的成效。
GM has a more attractive lineup of cars, led by the redesigned and heavily promoted Chevrolet Malibu sedan. The improvements that GM has made -- like more-luxurious interiors -- come with a price, and the higher cost of materials on the Malibu and some other redesigned models has offset some of the cost savings the company has achieved.
雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers Holdings)汽车业分析师布赖恩?约翰逊(Brian Johnson)说，通用汽车要想使自己的股票对投资者有吸引力，其北美业务不仅要实现盈亏平衡，还要实现2%以上的利润率。约翰逊对通用汽车的评级相当于“持有”。他服务的这家公司与通用汽车有投资业务往来，并持有其股票。
'To be an attractive stock, they've got to get North America above break-even and in the 2% margin range,' said Lehman Brothers Holdings automotive analyst Brian Johnson. He has the equivalent of a 'hold' rating on GM stock. Lehman has an investment-banking relationship with the auto maker and holds its shares.
约翰逊预计通用汽车北美业务第四财季将亏损1.88亿美元，从而使该公司的3年净亏损额至少达到460亿美元。如不包括众多支出项目和一次性项目，通用汽车北美业务自2005年以来的税前营运亏损额将达84亿美元。
He expects GM to lose $188 million in North America for the fourth quarter, bringing its three-year net loss to at least $46 billion. Minus a litany of charges and one-time items, GM's operating pretax loss in North America since 2005 would be $8.4 billion.
通用汽车未对何时能够扭亏为盈作出预测，不过该公司高管已暗示说2010年以后实现盈利的可能性很大。约翰逊估计，通用汽车的北美业务2010年以前扭亏无望，在那以后该公司为其加入工会的员工新设立的一个医疗保健信托将能为公司起到节省成本的功效。
GM hasn't given a forecast of when it will return to profitability, although executives have indicated the Detroit company will be firmly positioned for it by next decade. Mr. Johnson estimates that GM won't hit black ink in North America until 2010, when the company starts realizing the savings from a new health-care trust it is setting up for its unionized workers.
GMAC及其住房抵押贷款子公司ResCap仍是个问题。GMAC周二将公布四季度收益报告，尽管预计业绩数字会比较惨淡，但这可能仅是黎明前的黑暗。
GMAC and its Residential Capital home-mortgage unit, known as ResCap, remain a concern. GMAC reports its fourth-quarter earnings today, and while the numbers are expected to be dismal, there could be light at the end of the tunnel.
在1 月17日召开的分析师会议上，通用汽车首席执行长里克?瓦格纳(Rick Wagoner)和首席财务长弗里茨?亨德森(Fritz Henderson)表示，2008年GMAC将实现盈利，四季度它就已经不需要通用及其联合投资方Cerberus Capital Management注资了。
At an analyst meeting Jan. 17, GM Chief Executive Rick Wagoner and Chief Financial Officer Fritz Henderson made clear that GMAC will be profitable in 2008 and didn't need a capital infusion from GM and its co-investor, Cerberus Capital Management, in the fourth quarter.
这次会议之前，与GMAC有关的担心拉低了通用股价。1月16日通用股价为21.34美元，处于20个月低点，只有10月份水平的一半。会议以来，该股已有所上升。周一该股在纽约证交所收于27.57美元，跌1.41美元。
Before that meeting, fears related to GMAC had dragged down GM's stock price. On Jan. 16, it traded at $21.34, a 20-month low and about half of where it was in October. Since the meeting, the stock has shot up. In 4 p.m. composite trading yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange, GM's shares were down $1.41 to $27.57.
通用将在下周公布四季度业绩。市场预计通用四季度及2007年全年将出现亏损，且因三季度发生的390亿美元亏损，全年的亏损额会相当可观。通用汽车目前的总市值为160亿美元左右。
GM reports its own fourth-quarter results next week. The auto maker, with a market value of about $16 billion, is expected to report a loss for the quarter as well as a huge shortfall for all of 2007, stemming from a $39 billion loss in the third quarter.
瓦格纳在会上表示，由于去年9月通用汽车已与汽车工人联合会(UAW)达成协议，预计未来三年该公司可再节省50亿美元资金。目前通用坐拥300亿美元现金。瓦格纳还表示，相信2009年美国市场的汽车销售将大为改观。
In his presentation, Mr. Wagoner said GM, which is sitting on a $30 billion cash pile, expects an additional $5 billion in cost savings during the next three years thanks largely to September's United Auto Workers contract and forecasts for a rebound in U.S. auto sales in 2009.
不过，预计2008年美国的汽车销售将创下10年低点，为刺激销售，通用提高了促销力度。1月份通用平均为每辆售出的汽车支付了2,927美元促销费用，比2007年1月增加了31%。
But U.S. auto sales in 2008 are expected to hit their lowest level in a decade, and to prop up sales GM has been lifting incentives. In January, it spent an average of $2,927 in incentives for each vehicle it sold, according to Autodata Corp. That is 31% more than it spent in January 2007.
通用每年通过美国经销商销售近300万辆汽车，因此，促销费用较行业平均水平每高出500美元，就意味着它要损失15亿美元的税前利润。通用1月份每辆车的平均促销成本较行业平均水平高365美元。
GM sells nearly three million vehicles a year through its U.S. dealers, so every $500 of incentives above the industry average represents $1.5 billion in lost pretax profit. In January, GM's incentives were $365 higher per vehicle than the industry average.
通用说，为使卡车和SUV的需求继续保持上升势头，那些折扣手段基本都是必须的。它指出，公司的轿车业务蕴藏着活力，自从推出新款雪佛兰美宜堡之后，轿车零售量上升了11%。
GM said the discounts are primarily needed to keep demand rolling on trucks and SUVs. It points to momentum on the 'car side of the business,' where retail sales jumped 11% thanks in part to the introduction of the new Malibu.
通用1月份售出了14,000辆美宜堡轿车，这是一个很不错的数字，但只有丰田凯美瑞(Camrys)销量的一半左右。
GM sold more than 14,000 Malibus in January, a strong showing but about half the number of Camrys sold by Toyota.
与此同时，通用的卡车和SUV业务却在勉力维持。通用即将推出4款标准尺寸SUV混型车，它们的燃油效率更高。
Meanwhile, GM's trucks and SUVs are gasping for breath. GM is in the midst of unleashing four full-size crossover SUVs that are better on fuel economy.
John D. Stoll
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