Iron-Price Surge Hits Asian Firms
2008年02月19日10:44
日本和韩国的钢铁企业与巴西矿业巨头淡水河谷公司(Companhia Vale do Rio Doce)达成协议，同意将铁矿石价格上调65%。这将推动大型矿业公司的利润增长，不过各钢铁企业及其在世界各地的客户却要为此付出代价。
Japanese and Korean steelmakers agreed to a 65% increase in the price of iron ore with Brazilian mining power Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, boosting the fortunes of big mining firms at the expense of steel producers and their customers world-wide.
此次价格上涨表明，虽然市场担心美国可能引发全球经济放缓，但对钢材和铁矿石等原材料的需求仍很旺盛。分析人士预计，在未来几周中，中国及其他国家和地区的钢铁企业达成的铁矿石采购价格会与此相当，甚至更高。
The price increase, which analysts expect to be matched or even topped in deals with steelmakers in China and elsewhere in the weeks ahead, suggests that demand for raw materials like steel and iron ore is holding up well, despite fears of a U.S.-led global economic slowdown.
这也证实了必和必拓(BHP Billiton Ltd.)、力拓股份有限公司(Rio Tinto Plc)和淡水河谷等少数几家大型矿业公司的市场地位在不断增强。上述三家公司的铁矿石供应量超过了全球铁矿石出口总量的70%，而这些公司之间计划进行的并购可能会进一步增强其在大宗商品市场上的影响力。
It also confirms the growing market power of a few big mining companies, including BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto PLC and Vale. Together, those three companies supply more than 70% of the world's exported iron ore, and their efforts to consolidate could magnify their clout in commodity markets in the future.
此前，必和必拓向力拓发出了1,400亿美元的主动收购要约，分析人士认为原因在于必和必拓希望占有更多的铁矿石供应。与此同时，淡水河谷也在寻求与瑞士矿业公司Xstrata PLC进行合并。
BHP Billiton has made an unsolicited $140 billion bid for Rio Tinto, which analysts believe is driven by BHP's desire to lock up even more iron-ore supply. Vale, meanwhile, is pursuing a possible merger with Swiss miner Xstrata PLC.
近年来铁矿石需求一路飙升，其战略地位越来越重要，因此各大矿业公司都在寻求进行并购。铁矿石是炼钢的基本原料之一，用于建造办公楼、高速公路和工厂，它为亚洲的工业化带来了支撑，而其中中国的工业化进程尤其迅猛。
That activity comes at a time of rising strategic importance for iron ore, demand for which has skyrocketed in recent years. As a basic ingredient in steel, it is needed to build the office towers, highways and factories that underpin Asia's industrialization, which is especially rapid in China.
与其他大宗商品的定价方法不同，铁矿石价格是在每年矿业公司与客户秘密进行的会议上敲定的，而不是通过国际交易所定价。2005年铁矿石价格上涨了 71.5%，2006年涨了19%，2007年涨了9.5%，由于钢铁生产商很不情愿接受这样幅度的涨价，近年来定价会议的气氛变得异常紧张。
Unlike pricing of other commodities, iron ore's price is hammered out in top-secret annual meetings between miners and their customers rather than on international exchanges. The meetings have grown unusually testy in recent years, as steelmakers reluctantly swallowed price increases of 9.5% in 2007, 19% in 2006 and 71.5% in 2005.
今年，大部分大宗商品分析人士最初预计铁矿石价格将上涨约30%。不过铁矿石需求的增长仍高于供应的增长，因此近来他们开始预计价格上涨幅度还要大。
This year, most commodities analysts were initially expecting a price increase of about 30%. But iron-ore demand has continued to outpace supply, and more recently the market had started to expect an even more sizable jump.
日本的新日本制铁(Nippon Steel Corp.)和韩国的浦项综合制铁公司(Posco)周一表示，同意对4月1日起发货的铁矿石，以每吨78.9美元的价格支付淡水河谷，较去年上涨了 65%。日本的JFE Steel Corp.也同意将价格上调65%。淡水河谷在一份声明中证实了价格的上涨，并表示2008年的价格反映出全球铁矿石市场上供不应求的局面仍在继续。分析人士预计，这些价格协议将成为2008年全球铁矿石议价的基准，而包括中国钢铁企业在内的钢铁生产商将同意接受类似幅度、甚至更大幅度的涨价。
Yesterday, Japan's Nippon Steel Corp. and Posco of South Korea said they agreed to pay Vale $78.90 per ton, or 65% more than last year, for iron ore to be shipped from April 1. JFE Steel Corp. of Japan also agreed to a 65% increase. 'The prices for 2008 reflect the continuing excess demand in the global iron ore market,' Vale said in a statement confirming the price agreements. Analysts expect those agreements to become the benchmark for all other negotiations world-wide to set prices for 2008 and that other producers -- including steelmakers in China -- will agree to a similar or even greater increase.
力拓周一发表了一份声明，表示还在与客户就2008年铁矿石价格进行谈判，暗示公司打算等待时机达成比淡水河谷价格更高的协议。必和必拓拒绝对此发表评论。
Rio Tinto released a statement yesterday saying negotiations on 2008 ore prices with its customers 'are continuing' and suggesting the company intends to hold out for a higher price than that reached in the Vale agreements. BHP declined to comment.
澳洲银行(National Australia Bank)驻墨尔本的分析师杰拉德?伯格(Gerard Burg)说，毫无疑问这是一个卖方市场，考虑到近来流向中国的产量，日本钢铁公司可能会担心自己必须不计代价地争取供应商。
'There's no doubt it's a seller's market,' says Gerard Burg, an analyst at National Australia Bank in Melbourne. 'Given the volumes heading to China in recent times, there may be some concern among Japanese steelmakers that they just have to have access to supplies' no matter what the cost, he says.
日本股市投资者为这桩交易欢呼雀跃，这或许是因为他们原来担心的结果较之更糟。在东京证券交易所，新日本制铁(Nippon Steel Corp.)的股票价格周一上涨3.2%，至575日圆（合5.33美元）。JFE Steel Corp.的母公司JFE Holdings Inc.上涨6.3%，至4,410日圆。
Japanese stock market investors cheered the deal, perhaps because they feared the outcome could have been even worse. On the Tokyo stock exchange, Nippon Steel's share price rose 3.2% to 575 yen ($5.33) yesterday. JFE Holdings Inc., the parent company of JFE Steel Corp., rose 6.3% to 4,410 yen.
力拓暗示公司无意就此达成协议，而是要从亚洲客户那里争取到更好的价格。该公司认为其有理由比淡水河谷公司要价高，因为比起巴西，澳大利亚的矿产离中国和日本等亚洲客户更近，运输费用因而更低。
Rio Tinto indicated it intends to hold out in hopes of securing bigger payouts from its Asian customers. The company believes it warrants a higher price than Vale because its Australian mines are much closer to Asian customers like China and Japan, resulting in lower shipping costs compared with ore shipped from Brazil.
据知情人士称，中国最大的炼钢企业宝钢集团的董事长徐乐江周日在北京的一次行业会议上向与会者表示，中国打算沿用日本谈判者设定的价格。过去，宝钢曾代表中国钢铁行业与供应商进行铁矿石谈判。宝钢发言人拒绝就此置评。
On Sunday, Xu Lejiang, chairman of Baosteel Group Co., China's largest steelmaker, suggested to attendees at an industry conference in Beijing that China would aim to follow the prices set by the Japanese negotiators, according to a person briefed on his remarks. In the past, Baosteel has represented the Chinese steel industry in iron-ore talks with suppliers. A Baosteel spokeswoman declined to comment.
钢铁企业无疑将会力图把最新的价格上涨转嫁到客户头上，令全球制造厂商的日子更难过。浦项综合制铁公司已经在1月份将热压卷材的价格提高到每吨607美元，涨幅达11.5%；最近几个月，其他炼钢厂也相继提高了价格。
Steelmakers will no doubt try to pass the latest price increases to their customers, making life more difficult for manufacturers globally. Posco had already raised the price of hot-rolled coil steel 11.5% to $607 a ton in January, and other steelmakers have increased prices in recent months.
中国杭州钢铁集团(Hangzhou Steel Group)的区域营销经理李济（音）说，公司绝对会受到近期涨价的影响，因为公司超过90%的原料都来自海外。
Li Ji, a regional marketing manager for Hangzhou Steel Group of China, said his company 'would be definitely affected' by the latest price increases as more than 90% of its raw material comes from overseas.
李济说，这会给工厂带来严重的成本压力，可能会导致产品销售价格上涨20%至30%。由于工厂内部已经没有降低成本的空间，因此唯一能做的就是将上涨的价格转嫁到客户头上，他还预计钢材价格今年将猛涨。
'This will bring serious cost pressure to our factory, probably resulting in an increase of 20% to 30% to selling price of our product,' Mr. Li said. 'Since our factory has no room to reduce costs, the only thing we can do is transfer the price hike to customers. I expect steel prices to be going up sharply this year.'
这样的涨价会不会持续下去将取决于世界经济是否都会受到美国经济减缓的影响。
Whether such price increases can be sustained will depend on whether the global economy hangs together in the face of slowing U.S. growth.
一些分析师认为，2008年将会成为铁矿石价格的一个高峰年。必和必拓和力拓正在增加产能，其他规模较小的公司也筹集了大笔资金开发铁矿与上述两家公司竞争。
Some analysts believe 2008 could wind up being a high-water mark for iron-ore prices. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are adding new capacity, and other, smaller companies have raised huge sums of money to launch competing mines. (Please see related article on Page 17)
澳大利亚股票经纪和金融服务公司Ord Minnett在最近的一篇研究报告中指出，澳大利亚上市公司当前所开采新矿的铁矿石供应量可达每年10亿吨。但该公司警告说，这些新的供应量大部分要到2015年才能用上，并指出其中一些开采活动可能会以失败告终。
In a recent research report, Australian stockbroking and financial-services firm Ord Minnett said there could be as many as one billion metric tons of new supply a year under development by listed Australian companies. But the broker warned it could be 2015 before much of that new supply comes online, and added that some of the ventures could fall through.
Patrick Barta / Sebastian Moffett
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