How Nissan, Renault CEO Is Shifting Gears
2008年01月28日14:12
大约十年前，卡洛斯?戈恩(Carlos Ghosn)拯救了濒临倒闭的日产汽车(Nissan Motor Co.)，使之跻身于世界上盈利能力最强的汽车生产商之列。戈恩也因此声名远扬。
NEARLY a decade ago, Carlos Ghosn rose to fame for rescuing Nissan Motor Co. from near collapse and turning it into one of the world's most profitable auto makers.
如今，身为日产和雷诺公司(Renault SA)“双料”首席执行长的戈恩认为，全球汽车工业需要类似的时运逆转。由于美国汽车市场疲软、新兴市场迅速扩大，加之消费需求从高油耗车型向低成本、低油耗的绿色汽车转变，目前世界上各大汽车生产商正处于命运的十字路口。
Today, Mr. Ghosn, 54 years old, now chief executive of both Nissan and Renault SA, sees the global auto industry in need of a similar reversal of fortune. Strained by a weak U.S. market, rapid expansion in emerging markets and a shift in demand from gas guzzlers to ultra-low-cost cars and fuel-sipping green vehicles, the world's auto makers are at a crossroads.
上周，雷诺和日产宣布了数项宏大计划，表示将开发面向大众市场的电动车。本月，日产还表示将与克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)合作生产一款小型车，在南美市场销售。
Last week, Renault and Nissan announced ambitious plans to develop mass-marketed electric vehicles. Nissan this month also said it would team up with Chrysler LLC to produce a compact car that the U.S. auto maker would sell in South America.
戈恩生于巴西，父母都是黎巴嫩人。他在法国接受教育，精通六门语言。戈恩有时坐镇东京，有时亲临巴黎。最近，他来到《华尔街日报》位于纽约的办公室，与大家分享自己对汽车工业的看法。
Born in Brazil to Lebanese parents, educated in France and fluent in six languages, Mr. Ghosn divides his time between Nissan's headquarters in Tokyo and Renault's offices in Paris. He stopped at The Wall Street Journal's offices in New York recently to share his thoughts on the auto industry. Excerpts:
《华尔街日报》：你如何评价美国的汽车市场？
WSJ: What is your assessment of the U.S. auto market?
戈恩：我们在美国的低迷状态已经持续了四年之久，销售额和细分市场都很疲软。美国正在从大型皮卡、货车和豪华车向小型车转型，所以销售额和产品组合都会受到打击。你知道，很多汽车生产商在小型车上都不赚钱，利润主要依靠大型车，因此当市场从大型车向小型车转型时，大部分乃至所有生产商的利润都会遭受双重的影响。
Mr. Ghosn: We've been in a slump in the U.S. now for four years. It's not only in number but also in segment. You are moving from large pickup trucks, vans, luxury products to smaller cars. So you have a double hit. You have a hit in numbers. You have a hit in mix. You know that many car manufacturers don't make any money on small cars. They make money on the larger cars, so when the market moves this way it's a double impact in terms of profit on most of the car manufacturers, if not all of them.
《华尔街日报》：汽车市场上受挫最严重的是哪些公司？
WSJ: Who is hurting the most in this market?
戈恩：很明显是美国汽车业三巨头。那么它们还能承受多大的压力，接下来的情况会如何？这对全行业来说都是个很重要的问题。
Mr. Ghosn: Obviously, the Big Three. So how much more are they going to be able to sustain this kind of pressure and what's going to happen? That's a very important question for all the industry.
《华尔街日报》：是否每个汽车生产商都能在这种恶劣的环境下挺过来？
WSJ: Can all the auto makers survive in such a tough market?
戈恩：不是。
Mr. Ghosn: No.
《华尔街日报》：那么未来三年，美国汽车工业的前景将如何？
WSJ: So what will the U.S. auto industry look like in three years?
戈恩：目前三巨头的市场份额正在缩小，未来三年还会继续下降。看看（印度的Tata Motors）正在收购捷豹和路虎。欧洲的汽车生产商可能也会提出收购某个品牌或部分业务。
Mr. Ghosn: The market share of the Big Three, which is shrinking, is going to continue to shrink. Look at [Tata Motors Ltd. of India] now buying Jaguar and Land Rover. You may have European car manufacturers making proposals of taking a bit or a brand or a piece here or there.
《华尔街日报》：那么当一切尘埃落定时，美国还会不会有一个本土的汽车工业？
WSJ: So when it's all over, is there a native U.S. automobile industry?
戈恩：坦白地讲，我不知道。我能告诉你的是，到那时情况将与现在大不相同。不过我不知道最后是剩下一、两个，还是一个都不剩了。
Mr. Ghosn: Frankly, I don't know. I can tell you it's going to be very different from today. But whether there is going to be one left or two left or none left I don't know.
《华尔街日报》：那么美国之外的汽车市场情况又会如何呢？
WSJ: What about the non-U.S. auto market?
戈恩：目前，日本、西欧和美国之外的汽车市场都在蓬勃发展。2007年，俄罗斯增长30%，中国增长20%，印度增长20%，巴西、阿根廷和南美洲都增长了25%。并不是整个汽车工业都在崩溃。不是这样的。如果你在这些迅速发展的市场上业务不错的话，你就没有问题，因为你可以用这些市场的增长来弥补另外一些低迷市场上的损失。
Mr. Ghosn: It's booming if you go out of Japan, Western Europe and the U.S. . . . In 2007, Russia, 30% increase. China, 20% increase. India, 20% increase. Brazil, Argentina, South America, 25% increase. It's not a question that the whole industry is collapsing. No, if you have a good exposure in these booming markets you are doing fine because you are compensating what you are losing on one side by what's developing on the other side.
《华尔街日报》：新兴市场能保持住目前的增长率吗？
WSJ: Can the emerging markets continue to grow at those rates?
戈恩：不能。如果美国市场下滑了，其他市场也会受到影响。所以，中国就不会以25%的速度增长，而可能是10%；俄罗斯的增长率也不会是30%，而可能是15%了。虽然市场还在增长，但增长速度会放缓。
Mr. Ghosn: No. If the U.S. declines, it is going to hit the other markets. Now, instead of China booming at 25% it will probably grow at 10%. Instead of Russia growing at 30%, it will probably grow at 15%. Reduced growth, but still growth.
《华尔街日报》：你将如何应对低成本汽车市场上来自中国和印度的挑战？
WSJ: How are you going to meet the challenge from China and India in the segment of low-cost cars?
戈恩：Tata推出了Nano（售价2,500美元的“平民汽车”），我第一个指出应该严肃对待这个问题。我们也要研发出类似的汽车。但是，我马上又意识到法国或日本的工程师不可能造出2,500美元的汽车，因为思维定式就是如此。所以我们认为应该由印度去完成这一使命。我们决定（与Bajaj Auto Ltd.）合作。Bajaj是家生产三轮车的公司，对他们来讲，从“三轮”到“四轮”是一种提高，因为“四轮”汽车是高端产品。这是一种进步，因为他们过去都是在生产成本为1,000到1,200美元的产品。
Mr. Ghosn: Tata came up with the Nano [the $2,500 'people's car'] and I was the first one to say that is serious. We are going to come with a car similar to this one. But I recognize immediately that it is impossible with French engineers or Japanese engineers to do a $2,500 car because it's quite a mindset. So what we said is Indians have to do that. So we decided to pool with [Bajaj Auto Ltd.]. Bajaj is a maker of three-wheelers, and for them, moving from three wheel to four wheel is moving up for them because it's high-end. For them it's moving up because they are used to making products with a cost of $1,000 or $1,200.
《华尔街日报》：雷诺和日产会生产什么样的电动车？
WSJ: What will the Renault-Nissan electric car look like?
戈恩：普通的四座汽车。我们也可以生产轻型商用车或是两座车。
Mr. Ghosn: It's a normal car, a four-seater. We can do a light commercial. We can do a two-seater.
《华尔街日报》：市场对电动车有没有需求？
WSJ: Is there commercial demand for an electric vehicle?
戈恩：现在已经有公司要求我们提供电动车了，比如邮政公司、电力公司。很多这样的公司都拥有大规模车队。电动车市场需求很大，但是还没有产业化的生产。
Mr. Ghosn: You have companies already today asking for electric cars. Postal companies. Electric companies. Many of them have huge fleets. We have a huge market, but no offer as an industry.
《华尔街日报》：你对现有的电池技术满意吗？
WSJ: Are you comfortable with the battery technology as it exists?
戈恩：现有的技术？我不满意，但是对其发展前景还是看好的。我们正准备生产一款电池，实际上我们把它当作一项核心业务来做。我们已经（与日本电气(NEC)）签订了协议。日产、雷诺和日本电气正在联合研发一款锂电池。这种电池将把电动车的性能提升到一个新的水平，其充电时间、汽车的独立性、汽车重量和价格将被世界上大部分用户所接受。我们认为在大众市场上销售已经指日可待。
Mr. Ghosn: As it exists? No. But as we see it happening? Yes. Because we are preparing to produce a battery inside the alliance. We consider it practically as a core business. We have signed an agreement with [NEC Corp.]. Nissan-Renault-NEC are working together on a lithium-ion battery, and the lithium-ion battery is going to allow us to reach a level of performance on the electric car which we think is going to be acceptable to most users in the world relative to how much time it takes to charge the car, what is the autonomy of the car [and] what is the weight and cost of the car. We think we are near a solution which is going to allow a mass marketing of the [electric] car.
《华尔街日报》：华盛顿方面制定了新的法律，要求在未来15年，将平均燃油经济性的标准提高50%，日产对此有何看法？
WSJ: What is Nissan's position on Washington's new energy legislation that raises average fuel-economy standards by 50% in the next 15 years?
戈恩：日产一开始就表示，我们应该采取开放、积极的态度，因为不管我们怎么说，公众都期望环保型汽车。就是这样。我们嘴上是否说这与全球变暖有关，这无关紧要。我们必须将之变成现实。
Mr. Ghosn: Nissan said from the beginning we ought to take a very open and positive stance because whatever our conviction, the public is expecting cars which are, in terms of emissions, very friendly. Period. It does not matter if we contest that this is relevant for global warming. We have to deliver it.
《华尔街日报》：为什么雷诺和日产之间的“联姻”能维持这么长时间，而像戴姆勒和克莱斯勒这样的“联姻”却以失败告终？
WSJ: Why has the Renault-Nissan alliance survived for so long while other alliances such as DaimlerChrysler have failed?
戈恩：从一开始就没有雷诺的人对日产说，“知道吗？我们的系统比你们的好，所以你们要用我们的，就是这样。我不知道日本的做事方式是怎样的，但我们会以法国的方式做事。”最开始的时候，就没有这样的问题。这是合作，而不是收购。我们还将继续以一种非常自主的方式发展这两家公司。
Mr. Ghosn: From the beginning it was not Renault people saying to Nissan people, 'OK, you know what? We have a better system than you and you're going to copy ours and that's it. I don't care about the Japanese way of doing things. We are going to do it the French way of doing things.' All this was put out the back door from the beginning. That's a partnership. That's not an acquisition. We are going to continue to develop the two companies in a very autonomous way.
《华尔街日报》：一家公司在东京，一家在巴黎，你如何管理这两家公司呢？
WSJ: How do you oversee two companies when one is based in Tokyo and the other based in Paris?
戈恩：我努力将时间平均分配给雷诺和日产。当然，你周围的人都必须是你完全信任的人。组织机构里不能有漏洞。战略必须清晰明了，预算要一清二楚，轻重缓急也要非常明确。这样，即使你不在场，人们也能毫无后顾之忧地进行决策，因为他们掌握了全面的情况，目标也很明确。只有当他们有问题的时候，才会给你打电话。
Mr. Ghosn: Trying to divide my time 50/50 between Renault and Nissan. Obviously you have to be surrounded by people that you trust completely. There is no hole in the organization. The strategy has to be clear. Budgets have to be clear. Priorities have to be very clear so people are comfortable about making decisions even if you are not here because they have clear set of reference, clear set of goals. They call you only when they have a problem.
《华尔街日报》：你计划还会担任雷诺和日产的“双料”首席执行长多久？
WSJ: How long do you plan to remain CEO of both Renault and Nissan?
戈恩：我认为我不会一直在两个大陆之间做“空中飞人”，管理两家公司。我想在某个时期可以这样做，不过到了某个时候，总会需要采用新的体系，由两位首席执行长和一个董事会对这两家公司进行管理。
Mr. Ghosn: I don't think I'm going to do it forever, managing two companies on two continents and flying around. I think it's good for a period, but there is a moment where you are going to have to go for another system with two CEOs with a board for the alliance.
《华尔街日报》：目前的管理方式是如何运作的？
WSJ: How is the arrangement working for now?
戈恩：我听说在世界500强中，我是唯一一个做这种“滑稽事”的人，管理着两个大陆上的两家不同的公司。我正在努力以一种对两家公司的股东来说都合理的方式进行管理。目前为止，我挺过来了。
Mr. Ghosn: I've been told that in the 500 largest companies in the world I'm the only guy doing this funny thing of managing two companies on two different continents. I'm trying to do it in a way where it makes sense for both shareholders. So far I'm surviving.
John Murphy
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