Oil's Surge Defies Lessening Demand
2008年02月20日11:38
尽管有迹象表明世界范围内的石油需求可能正在消退，但周二原油期货结算价仍首次突破每桶100美元大关。
Crude-oil prices finished just above $100 a barrel for the first time yesterday despite signs the world's petroleum thirst may be subsiding.
这一最新走势令许多业内人士大跌眼镜，他们本来预计，随着石油库存量上升、美国经济濒临衰退，能源需求将被削弱，油价将因此开始下行。虽然欧佩克内部不时有要求减产的呼声传出，但油价攀升加大了石油输出国组织（OPEC，简称：欧佩克）保持供应稳定的压力。
The latest surge surprised many in the oil patch who have expected prices to head in the other direction as oil stockpiles increase and the U.S. teeters on the edge of a recession, softening demand for energy. Higher prices put more pressure on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to keep supplies steady despite some calls within the cartel to cut output.
如果油价保持在每桶100美元以上，炼油厂和航空公司等能源密集型行业将面临更高成本，消费者也将如此。油价的上涨也让周二股市回稳的行情被逆转。
If prices linger at or above $100 a barrel, energy-intensive industries like oil refiners and airlines could face higher costs, as could consumers. Oil's rise helped reverse a stock-market rally yesterday.
分析师和交易员们指出，油价飙升有一系列原因，但最主要的是由于投机性资金不断注入石油市场以及煤和铂金等其他商品市场。尼日利亚和委内瑞拉的政治动荡、轻质原油市场的紧缩以及炼油行业面临的难题也都是推动油价上涨的因素。
Analysts and traders pointed to a slew of causes for the price surge, but put the main onus on the continued flow of speculative cash into the oil market and other commodities like coal and platinum. Political instability in Nigeria and Venezuela, tightness in the light-crude market and challenges in the refining sector also contributed.
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)首席能源经济学家亚当?谢明斯基(Adam Sieminski)说，这是许多小事情合力促成的。他认为推动油价上涨的主要力量是流入石油和其他商品市场的大量资金。
'It's a combination of lots of little things,' said Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank, who contends the main driver is 'the huge volumes of money moving into oil and other commodities.'
纽约商交所基准三月轻质低硫原油期货涨4.51美元，结算价报每桶100.01美元，涨幅4.7%。此前原油曾两次上探或超过100美元大关，但均在当天收盘前回落。美国取暖油和混调汽油期货也收高。经通胀因素调整后，最新油价只比1980年4月创下的历史最高纪录低3.09美元。
U.S. benchmark crude yesterday rose $4.51, or 4.7%, to settle at $100.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has touched or passed the $100 mark twice before but retreated before the end of the closing day. U.S. heating-oil and gasoline-blendstock futures also finished at nominal highs. On an inflation-adjusted basis, oil is only $3.09 below its record, set in April 1980.
如果最新这波势头继续下去，欧佩克主要产油国在3月5日的部长会议上将很难支持部分成员提出的减产主张。在本月早些时候的一次会议上，成员国部长们指出，美国经济正走向衰退，第二季度有可能出现供应过剩。
The latest price surge, if it holds up, will make it tough for the big producers within OPEC to support an output cut when ministers meet March 5, as some within the group have urged. At a meeting earlier this month, OPEC ministers pointed to the weakening U.S. economy to warn of a possible oversupply of oil in the second quarter.
那之后的大多数关键指标都支持欧佩克的说法。美国能源部预测说美国的石油需求将会降低，石油和汽油库存将增加。包括美国能源部和欧佩克在内的大多数机构现在都预计今年的需求将增长1%左右。去年的需求较2006年增长了1.4%。
Since then, most key indicators have served to buttress OPEC's argument. The Energy Department is forecasting a flattening of oil demand in the U.S. and a buildup in oil and gasoline stockpiles. Most big institutional forecasters, including the Energy Department and OPEC, now predict that demand growth will hover around 1% this year. Demand rose 1.4% last year from 2006.
分析师们仍坚持认为，未来几周石油和汽油库存的增加将导致油价大幅回落。他们表示，要保持供应量稳定，欧佩克最理想的是将日产量减少60万桶左右。
Analysts still contend that increasing oil and gasoline stockpiles in coming weeks could spark a sharp retreat in prices. To keep supplies steady, they said, OPEC would optimally like to trim its output by around 600,000 barrels a day.
欧佩克的原油供应量在全球每天8,600万桶总供应量中占四成左右。周二，美国能源部下属的能源情报署(Energy Information Administration)重申了希望欧佩克增产的要求。
OPEC supplies around 40% of the world's daily needs, running at about 86 million barrels a day. Yesterday, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reiterated its call for OPEC to increase production.
华盛顿顾问公司PFC Engergy的合伙人罗杰?迪万(Roger Diwan)说，欧佩克希望减产，但在油价高达每桶100美元的时候他们不可能这样做。
OPEC 'would like to cut output, but they can't possibly do that at $100 a barrel,' said Roger Diwan, a partner at PFC Energy, a Washington consulting firm.
分析师们说，一些市场投机者似乎对炼油厂实际发生和可能发生的故障很关注。去年夏天，一场突如其来的大停产让汽油价格升至创纪录水平。石油天然气市场研究公司Schork Group的总裁斯蒂芬?舒尔克(Stephen Schork)说，投资者担心今年这种情况还会重演。他说：担惊受怕变成了贪婪，投机者将任何有关炼油厂停产的消息都放大成油价将猛涨的信号。
Some market speculators seem to be fixated on refinery snags, both actual and potential, analysts said. Last summer, a bout of unplanned outages drove gasoline prices to record levels. There are fears among investors of a repeat this year, said Stephen Schork, president of Schork Group Inc., a provider of oil- and gas-market research. 'Concern and fear translate into greed, and speculators take [any news of refinery outages] and hype it into much higher prices,' he said.
受得克萨斯一家小炼油厂失火的消息推动，周二纽约商交所再重组混调汽油(RBOB)期货涨4.4%至每加仑2.60美元。该厂是Alon USA Energy Inc.旗下公司，拥有日加工7万桶原油的产能，仅占美国1,740万桶总产能的一小部分。
Reformulated-gasoline blendstock futures yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped 4.4% to $2.60 a gallon on news of a fire at a small Texas refinery on Monday. The refinery, owned by Alon USA Energy Inc., has the capacity to process 70,000 barrels of crude oil a day, a fraction of the total U.S. installed capacity of 17.4 million barrels of crude a day.
由于许多炼油厂都在进行季节性维护保养，产能并未全面投入运行。但流向储油库和输送管道的汽油供应仍有所增加。据EIA的数据，自今年初以来，汽油库存增加了1,610万桶，达到2.292亿桶，增幅为8%，远高于每年这个时候的平均数字。
With many refineries in the midst of seasonal maintenance, not all of that capacity is being used. Still, refiners have been adding more gasoline supplies to storage tanks and pipelines. Since the beginning of the year, gasoline stocks rose by 16.1 million barrels, or 8%, to 229.2 million barrels, and are well above average for this time of year, according to data from the EIA.
与此同时，经济减缓和高油价令需求疲软。EIA的数据显示，过去四个星期，汽油平均消耗量比去年低1.2%。
Meanwhile, the economic slowdown and high gasoline prices have kept demand weak. Gasoline consumption has averaged 1.2% below last year's for the past four weeks, EIA data show.
Neil King Jr. / Ana Campoy
没有评论:
发表评论