Focus Will Turn To GM Car Ops
2007年09月27日17:00
笼罩在通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)股票上空的医疗保险阴云徘徊太久，以致于一些投资者已经忘记了通用是家汽车制造企业。
General Motors Corp.'s health-care problems hung over the stock for so long some investors stopped thinking of GM as an auto maker.
眼下通用汽车已经将退休工人医疗的大包袱甩给了全美汽车工人联合会(United Auto Workers, UAW)，因此该公司的基本业务将得到投资者更多的关注，而这或许将对通用汽车的股价产生不利影响。
Now that GM has foisted the retiree-health-care monkey onto the back of its union, the United Auto Workers, the company's basic operations will get more attention, and that might weigh on the stock.
在过去的这个夏天，出于对消费开支缩减、以及该公司产品市场占有率不断下滑的担心，投资者对通用汽车的负面看法日益强烈。这使得该股稍显廉价，毕竟通用汽车有着不菲的分红，其海外业务也有着良好的增长预期。
Over the summer, investors grew increasingly negative on GM because of worries about consumer spending and the company's continually declining market share. That made the stock somewhat cheap, given its juicy dividend and overseas growth prospects.
不过自从医疗协议谈判的消息传出以后，通用汽车的股价飙升了25%，其中周三就上涨了9.4%。推动股价大幅上扬的原因之一就是外界的收购猜测。 Cerberus Capital Management LLC今夏收购克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)的交易让投资者相信通用汽车将步其后尘。不过，预计交易金额将十分庞大，除非信贷市场大幅回暖，否则融资将相当困难。
But since word spread about the health-care deal, GM's shares are up 25%, including a 9.4% jump yesterday. One reason for the jump is takeover speculation. Cerberus Capital Management LLC's takeover of Chrysler LLC over the summer has made investors believe that GM could be next. But the deal would be big and, unless credit markets undergo a serious thaw, very hard to finance.
这让投资者仔细审视起通用汽车公司。通用汽车未来的任务是提高汽车的质量，并扩大销量，这在竞争激烈的市场中不啻为一项挑战。而徘徊在每桶80美元的油价将为此增加难度。
That leaves investors to evaluate GM, the auto maker. GM will need to improve the quality of its vehicles, and sell more of them, a challenge amid a competitive market. With oil prices around $80 a barrel the challenge could be greater.
这项协议确实有助于在汽车制造商中创造一个相对公平的竞争环境，有利于美国汽车制造商参与全球竞争。不过汽车业的一个大型投资者戏谑道，“坏消息是人们将开始关注质量了”──由此不难看出通用汽车和其他国内汽车厂商及外国竞争对手之间的差距。
The agreement does help level the playing field among auto makers, likely helping the U.S. auto makers better compete globally. But one large auto investor quipped that 'the bad news is now people will focus on quality' -- an allusion to the gap that is still seen between GM and other domestic auto makers and foreign competitors.
通用汽车今年第二季度在全球售出了240.5万辆轿车和卡车，与去年同期的239.5万辆相比几乎是在原地踏步。截至2007年8月底，通用汽车在美国市场的销量下降了7.4%，但该公司全球销量在此期间增长了1.5%。
General Motors sold 2.405 million cars and trucks around the world in the second quarter of this year, barely changed from the 2.395 million vehicles in the second quarter last year. U.S. sales are down 7.4% in 2007 through the end of August, though they are up 1.5% globally.
通用汽车基于明年收益的市盈率仅为10.5倍。不过这家汽车制造商在最近几年未能创造出正现金流，而且有分析师对未来一到两年的情况也不乐观。此外，尽管医疗协议将帮助通用汽车控制成本，但其日本对手仍然更富竞争力。
GM trades at a relatively skimpy 10.5 times its expected earnings of the next year. But the auto maker hasn't been able to generate positive cash flow in recent years and some analysts doubt it will be able to in the next year or two. And while the health-care deal will help GM control costs, GM's Japanese competitors are still more efficient.
Dreman Value Management负责人大卫?德利曼(David Dreman)说，即便通用汽车过了医疗保险这关，其单位劳动力成本仍然高于外国竞争对手。他指出，尽管签署协议是向正确的方向迈出了一大步，但通用汽车依然处于较大的成本劣势。价值导向的Dreman Value Management旗下管理着超过220亿美元的资产。
'Even if this goes through, unit labor costs are higher than foreign competitors' says David Dreman, head of value-oriented Dreman Value Management in Jersey City, N.J., which manages more than $22 billion. 'It's a major step in the right direction but they'll still have a major cost disadvantage.'
尽管如此，这项协议仍堪称通用汽车的福音。因为这实际上使通用汽车得以将拖欠UAW退休工人的510亿美元医疗债务转到一个名为自愿员工受益人协会(Voluntary Employees Beneficiary Association)的基金名下，并将这笔债务从自己的帐上抹去。
Still, the agreement is seen as a boon for GM. It effectively enables GM to cap $51 billion owed to the UAW for retiree health care by setting up a fund, known as a Voluntary Employees Beneficiary Association, and move it off its books.
此外，尽管通用汽车仍要解决质量问题，而且相对全球其他竞争对手，该公司员工的收入仍然偏高，但该协议还是给通用汽车打了一针强心剂，由于市场预期福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)和克莱斯勒也将达成类似协议，汽车类股票和债券也应声上涨。
And while GM still has to deal with quality issues, and its employees still are expected to be better paid than those of global competitors, the deal gives GM a shot in the arm, and sent auto shares and bonds climbing amid expectations that Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler will reach similar agreements.
通用汽车避免了一场有可能付出极大代价的罢工也让投资者感到欣喜。
The fact that GM averted a potentially costly strike also buoyed investors.
从华尔街的角度来看，通用汽车此项协议最令人满意的部分是：投资者得以更清楚地看到公司的未来。
The best part about the GM deal, from Wall Street's perspective: It allows investors to better analyze the future of the company.
金融咨询公司Mainstay Capital首席投资策略师大卫?库德拉(David Kudla)说，“未来的医疗成本不仅是一大负担，也是个未知数，而华尔街和投资者都痛恨未知数。这是个好兆头，该协议达到甚至超出了大多数投资者的预期。”Mainstay Capital为1,000多名通用汽车的现职及前任员工管理着资金。
'Not only were future health-care costs a big liability but it was an uncertainty, and Wall Street and investors hate uncertainty,' says David Kudla, chief investment strategist at Mainstay Capital, a Grand Blanc, Mich., financial-advisory firm that manages money for more than a thousand current and former GM employees. This bodes well for the company -- the deal met or exceeded most investor expectations.'
Hennessy Funds投资组合经理尼尔?亨内斯(Neil Hennessy)说，通用汽车和福特的股价在交易达成的消息传出后变得更具吸引力，因为这表明两家公司的工会都意识到，为了增强这些汽车厂商的竞争力工会必须作出妥协。Hennessy Funds旗下管理着20亿美元资产，并购年持有通用汽车股票。
Neil Hennessy, portfolio manager of the $2 billion Hennessy Funds in Novato, Calif., which own shares of GM, says shares of both GM and Ford look more attractive on the heels of the deal, because it is a sign that the unions at both companies 'realize they have to make concessions' for the auto makers to compete.
有些人甚至认为，市值210亿美元的通用汽车有可能成为收购目标。不过该公司390亿美元的债务比其股票的价值高出了一倍以上，这有可能吓跑潜在的买家。
Some even suggest that GM, with its $21 billion market value, could be a takeover candidate. But GM's $39 billion of debt is more than twice the value of its shares, which likely would scare off potential buyers.
看跌该股的人士表示，通用汽车将为医疗基金投入资金，预计这笔资金包括现金和证券在内价值将超过350亿美元。
And bears on the stock note that GM will have to fund the health-care fund, which is expected to be worth more than $35 billion, with a combination of cash and securities.
或许昨天最大的赢家是那些帮助Cerberus为收购克莱斯勒融资的大银行。投资者认为，通用汽车和UAW达成的协议将在福特和克莱斯勒身上得到复制。为了给Cerberus收购克莱斯勒提供资金，摩根大通公司(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)、高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)、贝尔斯登公司(Bear Stearns Cos.)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)试图在这个夏天从投资者手中筹措200亿美元资金，以保证克莱斯勒业务的运转。不过由于投资者在信贷市场疲软的情况下畏手畏脚，这些银行被迫将100亿美元的债务留在了自己的帐上。Cerberus和戴姆勒也负担了另外20亿美元的债务。
Perhaps yesterday's biggest winners were the big banks that helped Cerberus finance its takeover of Chrysler. Investors are assuming that the same deal that GM struck with the UAW will be replicated at Ford and Chrysler. To fund Cerberus's takeover of Chrysler, from Daimler AG, J.P.Morgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group, Bear Stearns Cos. and Morgan Stanley tried over the summer to raise $20 billion from investors to help finance Chrysler's continuing operations. But the banks were forced to keep $10 billion of that debt on their books as investors balked at the loan sale amid weakness in credit markets. Cerberus and Daimler took on an additional $2 billion in debt.
不过Cerberus和这些银行希望在今年秋季出售这些债务，而与工会达成的协议预计将使债务的销售变得更为顺畅。昨天信贷评级公司标准普尔评级服务公司(Standard & Poor's Ratings Services)表示，有可能上调对克莱斯勒和DaimlerChrysler Financial Services Americas LLC的评级。
Cerberus and its banks hope to sell the loans this fall, however, and the terms of the union deal are expected to make it easier to sell the debt. Yesterday, credit-rating firm Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said it may boost its rating on Chrysler and DaimlerChrysler Financial Services Americas LLC.
Gregory Zuckerman
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