Pinch In Chinese Auto Sales
中国汽车销售明年能否火爆依旧？
While the global car industry struggles through a downturn, optimism prevails among auto companies in China.
全球汽车业在努力挣扎着从低迷中走出来，而同时中国的汽车生产商却普遍满怀乐观。
That is hardly surprising. Spurred by China's fiscal stimulus, and some well-targeted tax cuts, auto sales in what is now the world's largest car market could well have risen 45% year-to-year by the end of 2009.
这并不出人意料。受中国财政刺激和一些针对性很强的减税措施的推动，2009年底前，中国这个目前世界上最大的汽车市场上的汽车销售极有望较去年同期增长45%。
Many are expecting the good times to continue, but overheating is still a threat. Among the optimists is Geely Automobile, whose parent company is the preferred bidder to buy Volvo. Geely said it expects its car sales to rise to 400,000 next year from its target of 300,000 this year.
很多人都预计强劲的汽车销售势头会持续下去，然而过热仍旧是种威胁。乐观的厂商中包括吉利汽车，其母公司是沃尔沃(Volvo)的优先竞购者。吉利说，预计明年公司的汽车销量将从今年30万辆的目标增至40万辆。
If it achieves that goal, it will most likely see a growth rate quicker than China's auto industry as a whole. Citi Investment Research analysts expect a 15% rise in Chinese auto sales in 2010. Indeed, next year may add a dose of realism about sales growth and profits to what is still a positive long-term story.
如果吉利实现了上述目标，那么其增速很有可能会超过中国整体汽车业。花旗投资研究(Citi Investment Research)的分析师们预计，2010年中国汽车销售将增长15%。的确，明年或许会给依旧被看好的中国长期汽车市场添加一点儿有关汽车销售增长和利润的现实味道。
While trends such as rising wealth levels and low car-ownership levels should continue to support Chinese auto sales, maintaining the breakneck pace of this year's growth will be a stretch.
尽管一些趋势将会继续支撑中国的汽车销售──比如居民富裕水平提高和汽车保有量较低──但保持今年这样的飞速增长却有些勉为其难。
This year's sales growth was driven in large part by a halving of the sales tax on autos with smaller engine sizes. Beijing has yet to confirm whether this tax stimulus will continue into the new year.
今年汽车销量的增长主要是受到小排量汽车购置税减半征收的推动。政府尚未确定明年是否会继续实施这一税收刺激措施。
Even if it does, it may not lead to such high sales growth if consumers start to see the tax cut as permanent, and hence car purchases as less urgent.
即使小排量汽车购置税继续减半，但如果消费者开始把减税措施看作是长期性的、因此购买汽车不再那么迫切，优惠政策就可能不会刺激销售实现今年这样的高速增长。
For individual auto makers, the challenge is making sure a more 'normal' rate of sales growth can come with healthy profit. Here, there may be less room for general optimism.
对于各汽车生产商来说，它们所面临的挑战是，确保一个更加“正常”的销售增速可以带来健康的利润。在这方面，可能没有太大的余地让人们感到普遍乐观。
Bill Russo, an auto-industry expert, points out that heavy competition in the Chinese auto sector was already leading to lower selling prices for cars prior to this year's stimulus. Price declines from 2004 to 2008 ranged from 12.1% in the luxury sector to 32.5% in the compact-car market.
汽车业专家罗威(Bill Russo)指出，中国汽车业的激烈竞争已经造成今年刺激计划推出前汽车销售价格就下滑了。2004年至2008年间降价幅度从豪华车市场的12.1%到小型车市场的32.5%不等。
As manufacturers continue to pour into China, and capacity grows, the balance between supply and demand should tilt in favor of the consumer.
在汽车生产商仍在涌向中国、产能增长之际，供需之间的平衡应该向消费者倾斜。
This could be especially noticeable in the mid-market sector, where Chinese auto makers are expected to challenge foreign brands.
这一点在中档车市场可能会尤其明显。在中档车市场，预计中国汽车生产商将会挑战外国品牌。
In a country that ranks alongside Belize in terms of car ownership per capita, it may seem strange to raise the issue of overcapacity. But it is a problem China's economic planners are already warning about -- and which should temper expectations for auto companies in China.
在中国这样一个人均汽车保有量与中美小国伯利兹处于同一水平的国家，要说起产能过剩的问题或许看起来有些奇怪。不过中国的经济规划人士已经开始就这个问题提出警告了，这应该会给人们对中国汽车厂商的期望降降温。
Andrew Peaple
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