It's Not All Gloom in China's Car Market
中国汽车市场仍有亮点
Two auto makers issued news that appeared to fly in the face of last week's report of a 7.8% drop in China's passenger vehicle sales in January or at least signal that demand for cars in China isn't sinking entirely, yet.
两家汽车制造商公布的最新销售数据似乎与上周公布的1月份中国乘用车销量下降7.8%的结果对不上号，也许，至少最新数字表明中国的汽车需求并未彻底一蹶不振。
Chery Automobile, one of China's biggest independent producers, says January sales rose, and it tips an 18% sales increase this year, while Japans' Honda Motor says January car sales in China rose nearly 17% from a year earlier. Yes, there were tax breaks and government stimulus measures, but with increasing job losses, weak domestic consumption and slowing Chinese growth, what gives?
中国最大的独立汽车制造商之一奇瑞汽车(Chery Automobile)宣布1月份汽车销量上升，预计全年销量有望增长18%。而日本本田汽车(Honda Motor)称，其1月份在华销量较上年同期增长近17%。虽然政府取消了部分相关税项并采取了刺激措施，但在失业率上升、国内消费疲软及中国经济增长放缓的背景下，中国汽车销售情况到底怎样呢？
Numbers in the first two months of the year are usually distorted by the Lunar New Year holiday. And with all the other variables, it is unclear if the relatively bright news from Chery and Honda signal a sustainable revival in domestic demand or a so-called dead-cat bounce false optimism that things are getting better.
每年头两个月的数字由于中国农历新年假期因素的影响，通常会有异常。现在还不清楚，在考虑其他所有可变因素后，奇瑞和本田相对出色的业绩是否预示着国内汽车需求正在复苏，抑或只是一种回光返照，误给人一种市场正在转好的乐观预期。
Chery, while not the market's absolute heavyweight, is China's most successful independent maker of cars without a foreign partner, but its sales dropped last year by 6.6%, missing its own outlook. Its forecast for this year could be too optimistic again.
尽管奇瑞并非中国汽车市场的绝对重量级选手，但它是中国最成功的独立汽车制造商，它没有外国合资方。去年，奇瑞销量下降了6.6%，低于它自己的预期。它对今年的预期可能又过于乐观了。
These are just two car makers and a further gauge of how strong passenger-vehicle demand really is will come in the next few months as the effect wears off both from the Lunar New Year and stimulus measures. The picture that then emerges is still expected to be bleak.
现在毕竟只有两家汽车厂商的增长数字，要考察乘用车市场的需求到底有多强劲，还要等几个月后春节和政府刺激政策的影响消退后再来判断。目前预计，那时的形势可能仍很黯淡。
For what it's worth, a typical Beijing street certainly doesn't give the impression that there are fewer cars around. Almost 1,500 cars a day have been added to Beijing's streets since the start of the year, according to the official Xinhua news agency.
不管实际情况怎样，北京的大街上肯定不会让人产生汽车变少了的印象。据官方媒体新华社报导，今年初以来，每天差不多有1,500辆新车加入北京的浩荡车流。
J.R. Wu
（“中国日志”（China Journal）关注全球第一人口大国的发展变化，《华尔街日报》获奖团队数十位记者倾情献稿，Sky Canaves主笔。欢迎读者发送邮件至chinajournal@wsj.com或在下面评论栏中发表评论和建议。）
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