Luxury-Auto Makers Stall As Consumers Switch Gears
消费者青睐小型车 豪华车商望路兴叹
Once envied for generating the industry's highest profit margins per car, the world's top three makers of luxury cars are facing a sea change triggered by imploding demand amid a broader trend toward smaller, less-profitable vehicles.
曾几何时，世界三大豪华汽车生产商因得以享受汽车业最高的利润率而备受 慕，而在市场转向小型低利润车型的当前趋势下，它们正在经历汽车市场的沧海桑田之变。
Analysts say they don't expect the record earnings reaped in recent years by BMW AG, Daimler AG's Mercedes-Benz division and Volkswagen AG's Audi unit to return anytime soon.
分析师预计，宝马(BMW)、戴姆勒(Daimler)旗下奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)子公司及大众(Volkswagen)旗下奥迪(Audi)子公司近年来达创纪录水平的利润将不会很快重现。
Sanford Bernstein analyst Max Warburton says the vast majority of profits in recent years have come from high-powered cars bought in the U.S. and the U.K. as well as newly wealthy customers in oil-producing countries. 'One could argue these consumers -- at least the Americans and Brits -- are going to have their spending power constrained for a long time,' he says.
Sanford Bernstein的分析师沃伯顿(Max Warburton)说，这些年来，利润的绝大部分来自在美国和英国售出的大排量车以及产油国新富们购买的车。他说，人们可以推断，在相当长时期内，这些消费者──至少是其中的美国人和英国人──的开支能力将受到抑制。
Even though the three German car makers appear to have more muscle to steer through the current industry gloom than most of their rivals, thanks mainly to higher cash reserves and relatively low debt levels, coming quarters are set to be bumpy.
得益于较高的现金储备和相对较低的负债水平，德国三大车商度过眼下这波行业萧条期的实力似乎较他们的多数竞争对手更强。尽管如此，对他们而言，未来几个季度也注定不会一路顺风。
'All of the luxury producers are likely to cancel product-development programs, cut capital spending, cut marketing spend and ultimately cut head count. But when your top line is down 25% to 30% these measures will not restore the business to profitability,' Mr. Warburton says, 'Losses will be substantial.'
沃伯顿说，这几家豪华车制造商都有可能取消产品开发计划、削减资本支出、减少营销费用，最后还可能裁员。但是，在销售下降25%-30%的情形下，这些措施将不足以让企业恢复盈利。亏损将是巨大的。
BMW, the world's biggest seller of premium cars, posted a 22% drop in global sales last month at its core brand to 60,248 vehicles. The world's No. 2 luxury-car maker, Mercedes-Benz, saw sales come in at 53,900 cars, down 35% from a year earlier. Audi reported that sales fell 29% to around 56,200 cars.
上个月，全球最大的高档车制造商宝马公布，其核心品牌的全球销量下滑22%，至60,248辆。规模排在第二的奔驰销量为53,900辆，较上年同期下降35%。奥迪公布的销量为56,200辆，降幅29%。
An incentive plan in Germany to pay 2,500 euros, or about $3,200, to consumers who scrap old cars and buy new ones is expected to spark demand mainly for small cars rather than for luxury vehicles. 'Examples in Spain and Italy show that these plans lead more to market distortion than sustainable stimulation,' Commerzbank analyst Daniel Schwarz says.
预计德国的旧车换新车补贴计划将主要刺激小型车需求，而不是豪华车。该计划将对主动废弃旧车、换购新车的消费者提供2,500欧元的补贴。德国商业银行 (Commerzbank)分析师施瓦茨(Daniel Schwarz)说，西班牙和意大利实行的类似计划显示，这种做法更多导致的是市场扭曲，而不是持续的市场刺激。
Spokesmen for BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi say their companies are seeking to preserve profit margins as far as possible as they focus on profitability rather than sales volume. All three companies are slashing production to avoid the buildup of inventory, streamlining cost structures and pushing for improved efficiency.
宝马、奔驰和奥迪的发言人均表示，公司希望尽可能保持利润率，他们更关注盈利能力，而不是追求销量。这三家公司为避免增加库存均在减产，并精简了成本结构、争取改善效率。
BMW has launched an overhaul of its U.S. strategy in order to boost the profitability of each model line by raising prices and lowering incentives. The company tries to steer consumers away from leasing into financing deals through better credit offerings.
宝马已对其美国业务战略作出修改，通过提高车价、降低促销费用来提升每个车型的盈利能力。该公司试图将消费者从租车引向通过更优惠的信贷方案贷款购车。
Mercedes-Benz has just launched a new version of the E-Class, a key model, and aims to lure buyers with state-of-the-art technology, including a system alerting drivers when they are getting tired.
奔驰刚刚为其主打车型E-Class推出新版本。它的目标是以最新技术吸引买家，比如能在驾车人感到困倦时发出警告的系统。
Audi says that in Germany it is scaling down business with car-rental companies and cutting employee vehicles in a bid to reduce the number of relatively young used cars in the residual market to stabilize values.
奥迪则表示，它正在德国缩减与租车公司的业务，并削减员工用车业务，希望以此减少残旧车市场上使用年头相对较短的二手车数量，以稳定车价。
Analysts see the ability to create profits with smaller cars as crucial for premium auto makers. 'That suggests Audi -- with VW's [economies of scale] and the very profitable A3 -- is best positioned. Next BMW -- its Mini and 1 series are very low-margin at best but at least have a market niche,' says Sanford Bernstein's Mr. Warburton. 'Mercedes-Benz looks most exposed of all. But honestly, they're all in trouble.'
分析师预计，用小型车创造利润的能力对豪华车生产商来说非常关键。Sanford Bernstein的沃伯顿说，这意味着奥迪的处境最好，它有大众（的规模效益）和非常赚钱的A3。其次是宝马，它的Mini以及1系列车型毛利率无论怎么说都很低，但它至少有自己的细分市场。奔驰在三家公司中是受影响风险最大的。但是，坦率地说，他们都面临困境。
Christoph Rauwald
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