通用汽车破产将造成史上最大信贷风险？

GM May Be Biggest Credit Risk Ever

通用汽车破产将造成史上最大信贷风险？

General Motors Corp. (GM) owes $76 billion. If the auto maker makes a conventional bankruptcy filing, it will have to borrow another $103 billion from the cash-strapped U.S. government and a syndicate of as many as 70 struggling lenders.

通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)的欠款高达760亿美元。如果这家汽车制造商按常规提出破产申请，它还要向资金短缺的美国政府和一个可能由70家正在困境中挣扎的放贷机构组成的银团再筹措1,030亿美元资金。

Is this the biggest credit risk of all time?

这会是历史上最大的信贷风险吗？

It is a truism in the world of bankruptcy that, no matter how risky the loan, nearly every company has always paid back the money that carried it through the bankruptcy process. (The one exception is Winstar Communications).

破产领域的一条真谛是，不管贷款的风险有多大，几乎每家公司都能通过破产程序偿还这笔资金。（唯一的例外是Winstar Communications）。

But a bankruptcy filing from GM would the largest ever. The company's recovery plan, submitted to the U.S. government last week, estimates that a two-year bankruptcy reorganization, including asset sales and a cleaned-up balance sheet, would cost $86 billion in government financing and up to another $17 billion from already-troubled banks and lenders.

但是，通用汽车的破产申请将是有史以来规模最大的。该公司上周提交给美国政府的复兴计划估计，为期两年的破产重组，包括资产出售和资产负债表的清理，将消耗860亿美元的政府资金，以及另外170亿美元已陷入困境的银行和放款人的资金。

Lenders - and the U.S. - are wary that they won't get paid back. Their fears have good reason. Any good loan is based on the security of the collateral, and GM's collateral base is eroding.

放款人以及美国政府担心他们的借款不会得到偿还。他们的恐惧有充分的理由。贷款安全是建立在抵押品安全的基础之上的，而通用汽车的抵押品基础正在削弱。

The auto maker has been struggling with disappointing financial results going back nearly five years, including a $10.6 billion one in 2005, a record loss of $38.7 billion in 2007, and it was on track for an even worse 2008, after posting $3.3 billion, $15.5 billion and $4.2 billion of losses in the first three quarters of the year.

这家汽车制造商过去五年的业绩一直令人失望，其中包括2005年亏损106亿美元，2007年创纪录的亏损387亿美元，2008年的情况可能更糟糕，前三个季度这家公司分别亏损了33亿、155亿和42亿美元。

And the balance sheet isn't even GM's biggest problem. While high costs caused it to burn through $6.9 billion of cash in the third quarter alone, GM has deeper operational problems to resolve. For too long it has depended on sport-utility vehicles, trucks and other gas-guzzlers, missing or ignoring a host of signals about the necessity for fuel-efficient vehicles. Standard & Poor's quantified GM's dipping market share in a report last week: 'Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac, Oldsmobile, Pontiac, Saturn and SAAB models accounted for 18.5% of total new U.S. car registrations (including imports) in 2008, versus 19.4% in 2007, 20.7% in 2006 and 22.6% in 2005.

资产负债表甚至不是通用汽车最大的问题。虽然高昂的成本导致通用汽车去年第三季度就消耗了69亿美元现金，但它也有更深层次的运作问题需要解决。通用汽车依赖运动型多用途车、卡车和其他高耗油车辆的时间太长，错失或无视燃油经济型车辆走红的诸多信号。标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)在上周的一份报告中提供了通用汽车市场份额不断下降的一组数据：雪佛兰、别克、凯迪拉克、奥兹莫比尔、庞蒂亚克、土星和萨博车型2008年占美国新车注册总量（包括进口车）的18.5%，而2007年、2006年和2005年的这个数字分别是19.4%、20.7%和22.6%。

Comparable figures for Chevrolet, GMC, Pontiac and Oldsmobile trucks were 26.6%, 27.6%, 27.1% and 28.5% in the respective years.'

雪佛兰、GMC、庞蒂亚克和奥兹莫比尔等卡车品牌在这四年的市场占有率分别为26.6%、27.6%、27.1%和28.5%。

It is a lot to ask of troubled U.S. banks that they lend to a company in such terrible shape. Consider that last week Roche Holding - which has a stellar investment-grade credit rating - raised $16 billion from investors through the sale of bonds specifically because it would have been too difficult to ask banks to provide the cash. The U.S. government has pledged more than $1 trillion of support to the U.S. banking system in order to free up credit, and even so rumors of bank nationalizations are swirling. For the government to ask that same banking industry to take on a highly questionable credit like GM would be like tying two stones together to see if they float.

要求陷入困境的美国银行业向处境如此糟糕的一家公司提供贷款并非小事。想想看，由于实在难以让银行提供资金，拥有稳定的投资级信用评级的罗氏公司(Roche Holding)上周尚且只能通过发售债券方式筹集了160亿美元资金。美国政府已承诺提供1万多亿美元支持美国的银行体系，以便释放信贷，即便如此银行国有化的传言仍甚嚣尘上。政府要求同样处境艰难的银行业向通用汽车之类的公司发放高风险贷款，就好像是将两块石头绑到一起看它们是否浮起来一样。

Then there is the capacity in the credit markets. Buyers of corporate debt have outdone themselves in the past two months, snapping up parts of a $22.5 billion bridge loan to Pfizer and that $16 billion from Roche to help finance its proposed purchase of the 44% of Genentech it doesn't already one. And bank lending has been on the rise since December, according to new numbers from the U.S. Treasury. But if GM debt is forced on the system, will that credit thaw continue? It is a question the U.S. government might want to consider?

不过信贷市场中并不缺少这种能力。过去两个月中企业债券的买家表现活跃，他们购买了辉瑞公司(Pfizer)225亿美元过渡性贷款中的一部分，以及罗氏160亿美元的债券。罗氏筹集这笔资金的目的是用于购买Genentech其余44%的股份。根据美国财政部最新公布的数据，银行贷款自去年12月份以来一直呈增长态势。但是，如果通用汽车的债务被迫在这一体系内解决，信贷解冻的状况还能延续吗？美国政府会考虑这一问题吗？

Heidi Moore

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090225/ffe091005.asp