China's Auto Industry To Consolidate
中国汽车销量超过美国 行业将进入整合期
Sales in China's intensely competitive auto industry exceeded the U.S. for the first time last month. But even as the industry gains a higher global profile, it is about to get leaner -- and potentially less splintered.
中国汽车销量上个月首度超过美国。不过，就在竞争激烈的中国汽车业获得更高全球地位之际，它也面临着“瘦身”的命运，并且其分散的局面也可能被改变。
Chinese consumers bought 790,000 vehicles in January, according to General Motors Corp. In the U.S., total car and light-truck sales were just under 657,000 that month, according to Autodata Corp.
通用汽车(General Motors)的数据显示，1月份中国消费者购买了79万辆车。据Autodata Corp.的数据，美国当月小型汽车和轻型卡车的总销量略低于65.7万辆。
Like the U.S. in the early 1900s, China has dozens of small but spirited car makers that grew out of the country's burgeoning sales growth last decade. They were welcomed as local engines of economic growth. Now, many are struggling amid a worsening slump. Their difficulties mean short-term pain for China's economy but consolidation could result in a more streamlined industry that is better positioned to take on bigger, foreign rivals.
与20世纪初的美国类似，现在的中国有着数十家规模较小、但生机勃勃的汽车制造商，它们都是十年来得益于中国汽车销售的迅猛增长而发展壮大起来的。这些小企业因被视为推动地方经济增长的引擎而备受欢迎。而如今，其中很多企业却在不断加剧的经济低迷中疲于挣扎。它们面临的困难意味着中国经济要承受一阵子的短痛，但是这些企业的整合却可能为中国打造出一个更加精简的汽车业，让它们在与大型外国竞争对手的抗衡中处于更有利的地位。
A year ago, Shuanghuan Automobile Co. was a small but fast-growing car maker with plans to expand overseas. Now, after falling nearly 40% short of its unit-sales target for 2008, the company is cutting workers and worried that it might not survive. 'If we could survive, that would be the best thing we could achieve this year,' Cheng Bin, vice president of Shuanghuan, said, sipping hot tea at the company's headquarters here, with its heat turned off to save costs.
一年前，石家庄双环汽车有限公司还是一家规模较小、但增长迅速的汽车企业，还有向海外扩张的计划。如今，双环汽车2008年销售量目标有近40%没有完成，公司正着手裁员，担心自己可能难以撑下去。公司副总裁程滨（音）说，如果我们能撑过此劫，那就是我们今年可能实现的最大成就。在石家庄双环汽车总部，他小口喝着热茶──为了节约成本，公司关掉了暖气。
The weeding out of companies like Shuanghuan could in the short term benefit big foreign auto makers such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Volkswagen AG by reducing competition in the world's second-largest car market after the U.S. Upstart auto makers have put enormous downward pressure on retail prices for cars in China, hurting foreign players' profitability.
双环汽车这样的公司被淘汰掉，可能会减少在中国这个仅次于美国的世界第二大汽车市场上的竞争，进而可能在短期内对丰田汽车(Toyota Motor)和大众汽车(Volkswagen AG)这样的大型外国汽车制造商有利。新兴汽车企业对中国汽车市场的零售价带来了巨大的下行压力，影响了外国厂商的盈利能力。
But a consolidation also could benefit China's bigger auto makers, such as Chery Automobile Co. and BYD Co., whose advancement has been hampered by cutthroat competition in the notoriously fragmented market. China's central government has long said it wants to see consolidation in the auto industry, to create a handful of home-grown national champions. Consolidation is 'good for the industry,' said Citi Investment Research analyst Gerwin Ho in Hong Kong.
不过行业整合也可能会有利于奇瑞汽车有限公司和比亚迪股份有限公司等较大型中国汽车厂商，因为在中国这个分散度出了名的市场，这些企业的发展一直受到激烈竞争的阻碍。中国中央政府早就表示，希望看到汽车业的整合，以创建一批本国的汽车巨头。花旗投资研究(Citi Investment Research)驻香港分析师Gerwin Ho说，整合对汽车业有好处。
During the market's boom years, which ran for nearly a decade starting in the late 1990s, car makers mushroomed in China. City and provincial governments, seeing the chance to woo prestigious industries that employed large numbers, chipped in funds or policy support.
上世纪90年代末开始的近10年的市场蓬勃发展时期，汽车厂商在中国如雨后春笋般出现。各省市政府看到这个扶植知名产业、提供大量就业岗位的良机，纷纷在资金或政策上加以支持。
Today, more than 80 producers of all sizes vie for small slices of the market, many of them selling what foreign auto executives regard as knockoffs of their cars.
今天，有80多家各种规模的厂商都在争取从这个市场上分得一块，其中很多企业销售被外国汽车高管视为仿制品的车型。
Those small companies thrived because of the high rate of growth in passenger-car sales, sometimes above 20% a year in the past decade. But sales began sliding in August. Unit sales fell 12% in December from a year earlier. For all of 2008, unit growth was just 7%, and this year will likely fall further: Some analysts are predicting no growth or even a modest contraction.
这些小企业蓬勃发展起来，原因是轿车销售的高速增长，过去10年来有些年份的年增速甚至超过了20%。不过从去年8月起销售量开始下滑。12月的销售量较上年同期下降了12%。2008年全年销售量增幅只有7%，今年很可能会进一步下滑，一些分析师预计销售量不会出现增长，甚至会出现小幅收缩。
Many smaller upstarts in China are low-cost producers, but their inexpensive cars lack the quality, performance and safety of those designed by established global auto makers. A subcompact car by Great Wall Motor Co., called the Florid, for instance, sells for as little as 53,900 yuan, or about $7,880. A comparably equipped Toyota Yaris costs more than 50% more, at 84,700 yuan, although Toyota dealers recently offered discounts to boost the car's sales.
中国很多新兴小型汽车厂商成本较低，不过它们价格低廉的汽车缺乏老牌全球汽车厂商设计汽车的质量、性能和安全性。比如，长城汽车股份有限公司生产的“炫丽”微型汽车价格只有人民币53,900元（合7,880美元）。配置类似的丰田“雅力士”价格为人民币84,700元，比“炫丽”高一半多，不过丰田的经销商最近推出折扣价来刺激汽车销售。
Many smaller Chinese makers achieve low prices by skipping research and development. Their planners come up with product ideas but farm out most engineering jobs. They assemble cars as if they are Lego sets, with purchased engines, transmissions and parts.
中国很多小型汽车厂商通过跳过研发环节实现低价格。它们的的策划者设计出产品，不过却把大部分工程工作承包出去。他们像拼装组合玩具一样组装汽车，用买来的发动机、传动系统和零部件进行组装。
Analysts warn that the speed and scope of any consolidation may be limited because local governments that own some of these smaller companies might try to bail them out.
分析人士警告说，由于拥有其中一些小企业的地方政府可能试图向其提供救助，任何整合的速度和规模都可能会受到限制。
Still, signs of pain already are emerging. Great Wall Motor, in the city of Baoding near Beijing, increased car and light-truck sales 5% last year to 125,000 vehicles but fell far short of its goal of 200,000, despite aggressive price cuts. It has trimmed 10% of its 23,000 employees. Jiangling Auto Group Co. in the southeastern city of Nanchang, saw its sales plunge 36% last year to 10,500 vehicles.
不过，疼痛的迹象已经开始显露出来。总部位于保定的长城汽车去年小型汽车和轻型卡车的销量为12.5万辆，增长了5%，但仍远远没有达到20万辆的销售目标，尽管公司进行了大幅降价。公司已经裁减了2.3万名员工中的10%。南昌的江陵汽车股份有限公司去年销量为1.05万辆，下滑了36%。
Shuanghuan, based in Shijiazhuang, about 185 miles southwest of Beijing, has laid off 8% of its work force of 2,000. Mr. Cheng, its No. 2 executive, said the company is trying to shore up its business by cultivating demand for its cars in overseas markets that are less affected by the global economic crisis, such as Ghana and other West African countries.
总部位于石家庄的双环汽车已将裁掉了2,000名员工中的8%。公司第二把手程滨说，公司正努力在加纳等西非国家这类受到全球经济危机影响较小的海外市场培育需求，希望藉此提振业务。
China's central government, while wanting consolidation, is concerned about the damage that shrinking car sales could do to an already weakened economy. This month, it halved the sales-tax rate on smaller cars to 5% for the rest of 2009, and cut retail prices for gasoline and diesel.
中国中央政府虽然希望汽车业整合，但也担心汽车销量下滑可能对已经疲弱的经济造成损害。政府上个月宣布，2009年底前小型汽车消费税率减半征收（至5%），并下调了汽油和柴油的零售价。
Norihiko Shirouzu
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