2009年1月8日星期四

钢铁厂商谨慎酝酿涨价计划

Steelmakers Move Cautiously To Raise Prices

美国、中国等国的钢铁生产商正在尝试小幅涨价,并重新启动一些几个月前因为需求疲软而关闭的工厂;这可能成为某些钢铁价格已经触底的早期迹象。

In an early sign that some steel prices may have bottomed out, steelmakers in the U.S., China and some other countries are attempting limited price increases and reopening a handful of mills that were closed because of weak demand a few months ago.

还不清楚上涨后的价格能否维持下去。不过即使钢材销售商宣布涨价或征收特别附加费,通常也会在客户反对或竞争对手没有效仿的情况下再把价格降下来。也不清楚涨价是因为需求增加还是存货减少。

It isn't clear whether the price increases will stick, however. Steel sellers often announce price increases or special surcharges, only to relent in the face of customer opposition or if rivals don't follow suit. Nor is it clear whether the price increases reflect more demand or lower inventories.

陷入困境的汽车生产商、承包商、家电和设备生产商已经减少了钢铁采购量。过去几个月中关闭的钢铁厂大部分仍处于停工状态,全球很多钢铁厂的开工率不到50%。美国最近公布的制造业新订单指数创六十年来最低水平。

Troubled auto makers, contractors, appliance and equipment makers have cut back on their steel purchases. The majority of mills closed over the last few months remain shuttered and many around the world are operating below 50% of their capacity. The U.S. manufacturing sector recently reported that new orders are at their lowest level in six decades.

但钢铁生产商表示谨慎乐观,认为世界部分地区的需求足够支撑价格上涨。总部位于匹兹堡的Allegheny Technologies Inc.表示,从2月份开始将把铁心硅钢的附加费上调55%,至321美元/短吨(1短吨约合0.9吨)。附加费是在基础价格之外收取的费用,通常反映原材料成本,可以每个月调整。

But steelmakers signaled cautious optimism that there is enough demand to support price increases in some parts of the world. Pittsburgh-based Allegheny Technologies Inc. said it would increase its surcharges on electrical steel by 55% beginning in February to $321 a short ton. (A short ton is about 0.9 metric ton.) Surcharges are tacked on to base prices, typically to account for raw-material costs, and can change monthly.

总部位于俄亥俄州韦斯特切斯特的AK Steel Holding Corp.表示,其2月份发货的铁心硅钢的附加费将由每短吨10美元上调至165美元。该公司没有公布基础价,因此无法计算上调幅度。

AK Steel Holding Corp., based in West Chester, Ohio, said it is raising the surcharge on February shipments of electrical steel to $165 a short ton from $10 a short ton. The percentage can't be calculated because the company doesn't reveal its base prices.

全球产量最高的钢材生产商安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)表示,将于下周二重新启用位于南卡罗莱纳州乔治敦的盘条厂。这家总部位于卢森堡的公司于去年12月5日关闭了该厂大部分业务,裁员300人,称原因是需求疲弱、产品价格低。

ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker by output, said it will reopen its wire rod mill in Georgetown, S.C., next Tuesday. The Luxembourg-based company on Dec. 5 shut down much of the mill, laying off 300 workers, citing slack demand and low prices.

中国几家钢铁厂商已经宣布将多种产品价格上调5%-25%不等。宝钢集团有限公司(Baosteel Group Corp.)和鞍山钢铁集团公司(Anshan Iron & Steel Group Co.)表示,将上调热轧卷钢价格。热轧卷钢是加工多种钢材制品的基础产品。宝钢还表示,将增加部分工厂的产量。

In China, several steel mills have announced price increases ranging from 5% to 25% for a variety of products. Baosteel Group Co. and Anshan Iron & Steel Group Corp. said that they will raise their prices for hot-rolled coil steel, a basic product that is processed into many steel applications. Baosteel also said it will increase production at some of its mills.

在土耳其,由于建筑需求开始恢复,国内生产的热轧卷钢价格本月将上调约4.5%,至每吨460美元。日本钢铁业管理人士周二表示,由于存货下降、生产商减产,预计钢铁市场将于年中前后开始复苏。

In Turkey, the price of domestically produced hot-rolled coil will rise about 4.5% this month to $460 a metric ton as demand for construction has begun to return. Japanese steel-industry executives said Tuesday they expect the steel market to start recovering around midyear as inventories decline and steelmakers reduce output.

钢铁业是全球经济的先导行业,因为钢材应用在从家电到商业建筑以及桥梁等各个领域。钢铁行业拟议中的涨价和部分钢铁厂重新开工表明,这一全球性基础工业的部分领域可能出现了回暖。

Steel is a bellwether industry for the world economy because the metal is used in everything from appliances to commercial construction to bridges. The proposed price increases and isolated plant openings indicate that parts of the global industrial base might be less anemic than they were.

钢铁分析师指出,市场仍然普遍疲软,涨价计划可能是受存货减少而非需求增强推动。据穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service Inc.)称,2009年的钢铁需求很可能保持疲软;预计下滑速度将放慢,并于今年下半年企稳。

Steel analysts, noting that the market remains generally weak, said the proposed price increases may reflect decreased inventories rather than stronger demand. 'Steel demand will likely remain weak in 2009,' according to Moody's Investors Service. 'We expect that the rate of downward movement will slow and that a level of stabilization should occur in the second half.'

美国的钢铁厂商指望当选总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)提出的经济刺激方案能够刺激基础设施领域的钢材消耗,只是这种市场需求渗透到钢铁行业可能需要一年的时间。

U.S.-based steelmakers are banking on the proposed stimulus plan by the administration of President-elect Barack Obama to spur consumption for infrastructure projects, although that might not filter down to steelmakers for a year.

分析师称,某些欧洲国家钢铁业的复苏希望更加遥远。德国、乌克兰和波兰的钢铁厂还在减产裁员,以将产量降至与市场需求一致的水平。

Certain European countries are further from potential recovery, analysts said. German, Ukraine and Polish mills are still scaling back production and laying off workers in an effort to bring production in line with demand.

Robert Guy Matthews

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090107/ffe110750.asp

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