Japan's Car-Export Addiction
丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)的命运在很大程度上就是日本经济的命运。
As goes Toyota Motor Corp., so goes Japan.
在近些年经济出现低迷时，日本一直依赖汽车业来抵消其他行业的下滑。而汽车生产商延续十年的成功，尤其是丰田汽车对通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)全球最大汽车生产商地位的挑战，使得全球汽车销售陷入低迷之际，汽车业成了日本最大的出口行业。
In recent economic downturns, Japan has been able to lean on its auto industry to offset declines elsewhere. And a decade of success by the car makers -- particularly Toyota's challenge of General Motors Corp. as the world's biggest producer -- means the auto industry has become Japan's largest export sector just in time for a protracted slump in global auto sales.
根据摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)的资料，汽车业占美国国内生产总值(GDP)的比例仅为0.8%，而日本这一比例为3.2%。
While auto makers account for only 0.8% of U.S. gross domestic product, they make up 3.2% of Japan's GDP, according to J.P. Morgan.
日本在依赖愿意借贷又爱车的美国人方面，这些年也有增无减。全球汽车及汽车零部件出口值在不到十年中翻了一番；截至去年3月份的财政年度中，日本的出口额为 9,400亿美元，其中汽车业就占了五分之一强。丰田汽车三分之一的销售额和本田汽车(Honda Motor Co.)二分之一的销售额均来自美国市场。
And Japan's reliance on indebted, car-loving Americans has increased in recent years. The global export value of cars and auto parts has doubled in less than a decade and, in the fiscal year that ended last March, accounted for more than a fifth of Japan's $940 billion in world-wide exports. The U.S. accounts for a third of sales at Toyota and half at Honda Motor Co.
因此国内外销售额疲软引发的裁员和减产带来严重冲击，尤其是在日本汽车业的中心东海(Tokai)地区。
So the reductions in staff and planned output that are following poor sales at home and abroad are hitting hard -- particularly in the regional auto hub of Tokai.
当地人口占日本1.28亿总人口的12%左右；得益于汽车出口增长，该地区在亚洲金融危机和互联网泡沫破裂期间均避免了国内其他地区遭遇的失业问题。
The area is home to about 12% of Japan's 128 million people and managed to avoid the spike in unemployment elsewhere in the nation during both the Asian financial crisis and the dot-com downturn, thanks to growth in auto exports.
但就目前而言，上述经验几乎无法对当地执政者提供任何安慰。丰田汽车国内工厂聚集区爱知县就计划雇佣临时工来做检查公路等零工，以抵消裁员的影响。
That is surely little comfort to policy makers in the region now. Aichi prefecture -- home to the bulk of Toyota's domestic plants -- is planning to hire staff to do odd jobs like inspecting roads to offset employment cuts.
底特律的姐妹城市丰田城(Toyota City)拥有40万名居民，76,000个汽车业相关工作岗位。预计该市下一财年的企业税收入将比今年的4.9亿美元大幅减少十分之九。该市因此削减了公共工程支出。
Detroit's sister city, Toyota City, with 400,000 residents and 76,000 jobs connected to the auto business, expects next fiscal year's corporate tax revenue to plunge from about $490 million to one-tenth of that. So public-works spending is being slashed.
但汽车生产商的裁员减产可能只是刚刚开始。日本主要的八家汽车厂商已经将计划产量减少了220万辆，并裁减了11,000多名合同工。丰田11月份宣布的减产计划占全国整体减产量的近一半。
But the auto makers are probably just getting started with their cuts. Japan's main eight car makers have already cut planned output by 2.2 million units and axed more than 11,000 contract workers. Toyota accounts for almost half of the production cuts, which it announced in November.
James Simms
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