Saudis Promise More Oil Kingdom Increases Output
2008年06月23日14:15
沙特阿拉伯向全世界承诺当前将少量增产，且以后可能大幅增加原油供应，试图以此平息石油市场的深切忧虑。
Saudi Arabia moved to calm deep anxieties in the oil market by promising the world a little more oil now and potentially a lot more later.
但沙特的增产是否足以减缓原油价格史无前例的高涨势头还是个未知数。许多人都担心油价可能还将大涨。上周，纽约商品交易所原油期货价格曾一度上探每桶139.89美元，创下历史新高，此后仅有小幅回落。
But it is unclear whether the Saudi bid to reassert its oil muscle will be enough to slow a historic surge in crude prices that many fear could go far higher. Oil prices in New York hit a record last week of $139.89 a barrel and have since fallen back, but only marginally.
在位于红海沿岸的吉达市举行的石油生产国和消费国石油峰会上，全球最大的石油生产国沙特对各国部长及石油官员表示，如有必要，今年剩下的时间内将在现有的日产量950万桶的基础上增加20万桶。全球石油市场的需求约为每天8,600万桶。
The world's largest oil producer told ministers and oil executives at an unusual summit of producers and consumers in the Red Sea city of Jeddah that it will boost its output by 200,000 barrels a day for the rest of the year if needed, adding to its current production of around 9.5 million barrels a day. The global market for oil is about 86 million barrels a day.
除此之外，为了消除人们对将来的全球供应无法满足日渐高涨的需求的担忧，沙特还承诺要积极采取行动，到2018年将总产能从目前的日产量1,140万提高到最多1,500万桶。
In addition, seeking to address rising fears that future world supplies may not match rising demand, Saudi Arabia also promised an aggressive campaign to push its overall output capability to as much as 15 million barrels a day by 2018 from around 11.4 million now.
如此幅度的产能提升对日产量从未超过1,100万桶的沙特来说可谓惊人。要达到这一目标，沙特必须首先增加早在20世纪40年代就已投产的大油田的产量－－这可不是轻而易举的事。
A capacity increase of that magnitude would be extraordinary for a country that has never produced more than 11 million barrels a day. To get there, Saudi Arabia would have to squeeze greater quantities of oil primarily from huge fields that have been in production since as far back as the 1940s -- far from a simple task.
沙特应对长期供应担忧的举措出于人们意料之外。就在几个月前，沙特石油大臣纳伊米(Ali Naimi)还表示，沙特现在已经在进行巨大的投入，如果一切都按计划进行的话，将在明年之内将沙特的产能提高到日产1,250万桶，他认为没有必要进一步提高产量。沙特投资逾600亿美元增加产能，同时弥补Ghawar和Abqaiq等年代久远的大油田产出率的自然下滑。
The Saudi move to address long-term supply worries came as a surprise. The kingdom's oil minister, Ali Naimi, said just months ago that he saw no need to go beyond the huge investments now under way, which will push Saudi output ability to 12.5 million barrels a day sometime next year, if all goes according to plan. The kingdom is spending more than $60 billion to increase its production abilities while also offsetting the natural decline in output rates at huge but aging fields like Ghawar and Abqaiq.
一些石油专家对沙特将日产量增加到1,500万桶的能力表示怀疑。曾任沙特阿美(Aramco)总裁的爱德华?普莱斯(Edward Price)说，我担心现有的大油田日产量最多只能达到1,200万桶左右。他还说，就算是沙特，资源也是有限的。
Some oil experts expressed skepticism about the Saudis' ability to boost output to 15 million barrels a day. 'I am afraid that we are going to see the big fields [now in production] top off at 12 million barrels a day or so,' said Edward Price, a former president of Saudi Arabian Oil Co., or Aramco, who keeps up with developments there. 'Even in Saudi Arabia, there are resource limits.'
沙特做出增产承诺正值其他大产油国的产量剧跌之际。尼日利亚称，由于其石油设施不断受到武装袭击，目前的产量已跌至25年低点，日产量较正常水平下降了近100万桶。墨西哥、英国和挪威这些在满足市场石油需求方面扮演着重要角色的国家的出口也在下降。
The promised added barrels from Saudi Arabia come as output has fallen sharply in other big producing countries. Nigeria says that because of continuing militant attacks against its oil facilities, production is now at a 25-year low, down nearly one million barrels a day from its normal output. Oil exports from Mexico, Britain and Norway -- all of which have played major roles in slaking the world's oil thirst -- also are falling.
在沙特举行的国际石油峰会气氛凝重，包括英国首相戈登?布朗(Gordon Brown)在内的36个国家的代表、近10家国际石油公司的高管，以及来自石油输出国组织(OPEC)的高层官员就如何应对高不可抑的油价展开激辩。沙特国王阿卜杜拉(Abdullah)说高油价是对全球安全的重大威胁。
The Saudi-hosted summit was a somber affair as delegates from 36 countries, including British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the heads of nearly 10 international oil companies and top officials from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, debated how to address nosebleed prices, a situation that Saudi King Abdullah called a major threat to global security.
油价在过去一年中已涨了一倍，导致燃油价格飙升，也给航空、货运到美国汽车生产等许多行业带来极大的压力。油价的上涨还引发了欧洲的暴力抗议活动，以及很多发展中国家的经济动荡。
Oil prices have doubled in the past year, causing fuel prices to soar and putting huge strains on industries ranging from airlines and cargo shipping to U.S. auto manufacturers. The price rise has also stirred violent protests in Europe and economic unrest in much of the developing world.
为期一天的吉达会议上，各方纷纷做出承诺，沙特等大产油国誓言将致力于平息人们对原油供应量的担忧，美国等主要消费国也谈及加大可再生能源的投资力度。但这次会议可能很难改变人们认为世界石油市场不稳定的看法。
The one-day Jeddah gathering unleashed a spate of promises as big producers like Saudi Arabia vowed to do more to calm supply fears and big consumers like the U.S. talked of heightened investments in renewable energies. Yet the conclave is likely to do little to change perceptions about the precariousness of world oil markets.
在热情的握手和表示要进行合作的豪言壮语背后，与会各方对导致油价高涨的罪魁祸首意见不一。
Behind the warm handshakes and the talk of cooperation rumbled a deep disagreement over what has caused the oil-price surge.
沙特官员四处奔走，向人们传达油价的波动与石油供应无关的信息。沙特国王阿卜杜拉在讲话中谴责涉入石油期货交易的人“自私”，说投机者“十分卑劣”。
Saudi officials worked the halls, delivering the message that price volatility wasn't related to oil supplies. King Abdullah, in his speech, decried the 'selfishness' of those involved in the oil-futures market, speculators whom he derided as 'despicable.'
阿卜杜拉说，虽然OPEC近几个月来一直努力满足需求，但西方许多人仍然只将矛头对准OPEC。
The king said that many in the West continue to 'point the finger of blame at OPEC alone,' despite efforts within OPEC to keep pace with demand in recent months.
但美国等消费国的部长将大部分责任归咎于供求关系，认为在全球需求自2003年以来以平均每年1.8%的速度增长之际，市场需要更多石油。全球需要的增长在很大程度上是由于中国和印度的需求飙升。OPEC供应着全球近40%的原油。
Yet ministers from consuming nations like the U.S. put most of the blame on the fundamentals of supply and demand, saying more oil is needed at a time when global demand since 2003 has jumped by 1.8% a year on average -- thanks largely to surging demand from China and India. OPEC supplies nearly 40% of the world's crude oil.
美国能源部长博德曼(Samuel Bodman)说，我相信我们大多数人在有件事上都意见一致：当前的油价太高了。除非我们行动起来，否则形势就会继续令人难以忍受。
'I believe that most of us agree on one thing: Prices are too high at present,' said U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman. 'And unless we act, the situation will remain unsustainable.'
许多产油国都认为美国应当采取措施加强对石油期货市场的监管，但会议在这方面没有取得明显进展。对于如何让沙特、伊朗或俄罗斯等大产油国发布有关储量或是每个油田消耗速度的更为可靠的数据，也没有进行公开讨论。这类数据会让通常都处于一片迷雾之中的市场增加透明度。
The gathering made no clear headway on whether the U.S. should take steps to tighten regulations on the oil-futures trading market, as many oil producers think it should. Nor was there any public discussion of how to get big producers like Saudi Arabia, Iran or Russia to publish more reliable data on their reserves and or the depletion rates of individual fields. Such data would offer more clarity to a market that most often operates in a deep fog.
石油消费国的监察机构国际能源署(International Energy Agency)自己在对世界最大的一些油田进行统计，试图弥补信息断层。
The International Energy Agency, a watchdog for consuming nations, is doing its own study of the world's biggest fields in a bid to bridge the information gap.
许多官员都是在国内或国际的政治重压之下来到吉达的。
Many officials came to Jeddah under heavy political fire either at home or abroad.
因高昂的燃油价格而在国内面对猛烈抗议的英国首相布朗提出了石油生产国和消费国可以更好地合作、减轻危机的一些方法。他提出停止限制西方投资阿拉伯国家的能源产业，同时也宣布他愿意增加主权财富基金进入英国市场的渠道。
British Prime Minister Brown, who has faced a rash of protests at home over high fuel costs, pitched a number of ways that producing and consuming nations could better cooperate to ease the crisis. He called for the end of restrictions to Western investment in Arab countries' energy sectors while also announcing his willingness to increase access for sovereign wealth funds to the U.K.'s market.
中国国家副主席习近平为中国的能源政策辩护，表示中国决心发展替代能源、提高能效。中国激增的能源需求帮助推高了全球油价。为了应对油价上涨，中国上周宣布，计划提高补贴的燃油价格。不过，习近平强调说，直到最近，中国国内能源需求90%来自国内供应。
China's Vice President Xi Jinping defended his country's energy policies, saying China is committed to alternative energy developments and to increased energy efficiency. China's booming energy demand has helped propel world oil prices. To counter that rise, China announced last week that it plans to raise its subsidized fuel costs to consumers. Still, Mr. Xi noted that, until recently, 90% of China's domestic energy needs came from domestic supplies.
在吉达会议之前，沙特先是希望借承诺大幅增产来推动油价回落。但这一举措并没有给市场造成什么影响，沙特石油官员似乎又将注意力转向了长期的计划。
Leading up to the Jeddah meeting, the Saudis first hoped to nudge prices down by promising a big boost in output. When that left markets unfazed, the country's oil officials appeared to turn their attention to long-range plans instead.
纳伊米说，沙特计划未来5年内在石油项目上投入1,290亿美元。他说，如果必要的话，沙特可以增加5个大油田的开采量，将日产量提高200多万桶。
Mr. Naimi said the country is looking to invest $129 billion in oil projects over the next five years. If needed, he said, the country could add more than two million barrels a day in extra capacity through more drilling in five huge fields.
但那无疑会是个挑战。与其他地方的石油公司一样，沙特也遭遇了成本暴涨和项目延迟。从一些项目来看，纳伊米的产量预测可能很难达到。
But that is certain to be a challenge. Saudi Arabia has been hit by soaring costs and project delays, as have oil companies elsewhere. And with some projects, Mr. Naimi is making output predictions that could be hard to hit.
举例来说，沙特阿美斥资近200亿美元开发Khurais油田，目的在于将产量提高到每天120万桶－－该公司内部的许多人都认为这个目标太高了。但纳伊米周日表示，要进一步提高沙特的石油产能，Khurais油田将逐步将日产量再提高25万桶。
Aramco is spending nearly $20 billion, for example, to develop the huge Khurais field, with an aim of pushing its output to 1.2 million barrels a day -- a target that many within the company think is overambitious. But to push the country's abilities still higher, Mr. Naimi said Sunday that Khurais would over time be made to deliver 250,000 barrels a day more.
Margaret Coker / Neil King Jr.
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