Gasoline Hits Average Of $4 A Gallon
2008年06月09日16:32
美国的汽油平均价格周日首次达到每加仑4美元，是燃料油价格上涨的又一里程碑，这不仅将进一步打击消费者的信心，还加大了美国经济陷入衰退的风险。
The average price of gasoline in the U.S. hit $4 a gallon for the first time Sunday, the latest milestone in a run-up in fuel prices that is sapping consumer confidence and threatening to nudge the nation into recession.
美国普通汽油平均价创出新高的消息是由美国汽车协会(AAA)宣布的，上周五原油价格每桶大涨近11美元，达到创纪录的138.54美元。按一些指标计算，这是30年来美国人的钱包受油价劫掠最严重的一次。
The record nationwide average for regular-gasoline prices, announced by auto club AAA, follows Friday's near-$11 surge in oil prices to a record $138.54 a barrel. Both are part of what, by some measures, is the worst energy-price shock Americans have faced for a generation, in terms of its toll on their pocketbooks.
最近几天，燃料价格飙升和令人失望的就业数据再次让人们担忧美国经济将陷入衰退，而如果目前已经处于衰退之中的话，那么衰退的程度则会进一步加深。过去一年中，房地产低迷、信贷危机和就业市场疲弱让美国经济受到了沉重打击。燃油价格的上涨会导致家庭预算紧张，打击推动三分之二以上美国经济活动的消费者支出。
In recent days, soaring fuel prices and disappointing employment data have reignited fears that the nation's economy -- which has taken a pounding over the past year from a housing downturn, credit crunch and weakening job market -- will slip into recession, or pull back further if a recession is already under way. Rising fuel prices are straining household budgets, damping the spending that drives more than two-thirds of the nation's economic activity.
Alliance Bernstein的经济学家约瑟夫?卡森(Joseph Carson)说，我们目前看到的是已经走软的消费领域正面临着许多额外压力。这是否成为一个拐点呢？看来正在临近。
'What we're seeing here is a lot of additional pressure on a consumer sector that was soft to begin with,' said Alliance Bernstein economist Joseph Carson. 'Is it a tipping point by itself? It's close.'
汽油价格在过去一年中上涨了29%，目前一直居高不下；而在阿拉斯加和加州等市场，汽油价格几周前就突破了每加仑4美元关口。但全国平均汽油价格从此前的每加仑接近3.99美元窜升到4美元至少会在心理上打击许多美国人。
Gasoline prices, which have risen 29% over the past year, have been high for months, and in some markets, such as Alaska and California, consumers have been paying more than $4 a gallon at the pump for weeks. But the latest increase at the nationwide level from a previous average of nearly $3.99 a gallon seems likely to deliver at least a psychological blow to many Americans.
目前的油价上涨对消费者收入的侵蚀超过了历史上大多数能源价格涨幅最大的时期。如今燃料支出占工资收入的比重已经升至6%以上。卡森称，这个比例超过了1974-75年和1990-91年油价暴涨时的数字，接近了1980-81年期间的7%至8%。
The current drain on consumers' income from rising fuel prices is greater than it was during most of the worst energy-price run-ups of the past. Spending on fuel as a share of wage income has shot above 6%. That exceeds the percentage seen during the 1974-75 and 1990-91 oil-price shocks and approaches the 7% to 8% seen during the 1980-81 price surge, according to Mr. Carson.
他说，相对于近年格外疲弱的收入增长，此次燃料支出的增加对消费者的打击要远高于上述三个时期的任何一个。
Comparing the rise in fuel spending to income growth, which has been especially weak in recent years, the current shock is far worse than any of the three prior ones, he said.
艾奥瓦州53岁的伊冯?布鲁恩(Yvonne Brune)在谈到汽油价格的上涨时称，油价已经失去了控制。布鲁恩白天在一家印刷公司做营销，而晚间和周末则从事婚礼咨询工作。由于汽油价格上涨，她现在午休时已不再往返30英里回家陪她的狗。机票的上涨也让她取消了到德州拜访亲友的计划。她说，我认为航空公司将会面临困境，因为人们都不坐飞机了。
'It's just gotten out of hand,' said 53-year-old Yvonne Brune of Des Moines, Iowa, referring to the rising cost of gasoline. Because of higher gasoline prices, Ms. Brune, who works for a printing company doing marketing on weekdays and separately as a bridal consultant on nights and weekends, no longer makes the drive home at lunchtime -- a 30-mile round trip -- to spend time with her dogs. Because of rising airfares, she has canceled plans for a trip to Texas to visit relatives. 'I think the airlines are going to see their industry implode because people are going to stop flying,' she said.
一些经济学家还抱有希望，认为目前的油价飙升不会像过去那样带来灾难性后果。一个重要的原因是，同70年代中期的油价上涨相比，如今消费者和企业的能源利用效率已明显提高，单位经济产值所需的能源只是当时的一半了。
Some economists hold out hope the current oil-price surge won't be as devastating as some in the past. For one thing, consumers and businesses are far more fuel-efficient today than they were during the oil shock of the mid-1970s, requiring half as much energy to produce a unit of economic output.
利率也远远低于当时，预计美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)将在今年多数时间里维持2%的基准利率不变。与此同时，美元的走软则增加了海外对美国产品的需求，出口的增长也是美国经济在过去半年中尽管缓慢但却继续扩张的重要原因。
Interest rates also are far lower than they were then, and the Federal Reserve is expected to hold its interest-rate target steady at 2% for much of this year. The dollar's weakness, meanwhile, is raising overseas demand for American products, and growth in exports is a key reason why the U.S. economy has continued to expand -- albeit slowly -- over the past six months.
更重要的是，虽然燃料成本持续增加，但消费者在过去五年里却显示出了出乎意料的承受力。美国银行(Bank of America)的经济学家彼得?克莱兹莫尔(Peter Kretzmer)说，尽管经济显然会在今后几个季度中面临更大困难，但我仍相信消费者能够适应。
Most important, consumers have shown surprising resilience over the past five years, despite continued surges in their fuel costs. 'While it certainly makes it tougher for the economy for the next few quarters, I still believe consumers can adapt,' said Peter Kretzmer, a Bank of America economist.
不过，汽油价格的上涨消耗了消费者本可以用于购买电器、看电影或是度假的资金。这可能也会迫使遭受消费者需求低迷和自身成本提高双重打击的企业精简运营，在已经疲弱的劳动力市场上削减更多工作岗位。政府上周五公布，5月份的失业率已从4月份的5%升至5.5%，5月份美国非农就业人数减少49,000人，为连续第五个月下降。
Still, as gasoline prices climb, they eat up money that consumers might otherwise spend on appliances or movie tickets or vacations. That could force businesses, hit by weaker consumer demand and an increase in their own costs, to pare operations and cut more jobs in an already weak labor market. The government reported Friday that the unemployment rate jumped to 5.5% in May from 5% in April as employers shed 49,000 jobs last month -- a fifth-straight monthly decline.
以税收返还为主要内容的总额1,680亿美元的经济刺激计划减轻了这一冲击的影响，但自从2月份国会通过上述计划以来，每加仑汽油价格又上涨了1美元多，这意味着消费者或许至少需要将返税款里的一部分填到油箱里。
The government's $168 billion economic-stimulus program, largely built around tax-rebate checks, is lessening some of the impact of the current shock. But gasoline prices have increased more than $1 a gallon since the economic-stimulus plan cleared Congress in February, suggesting consumers may have spent at least part of that money to fill their gas tanks.
与此同时，消费者还要承受食品涨价的打击。在俄勒冈州尤尼恩，78岁的丹?汤普森(Dan Thompson)开始自己种植作物，这样就可以不必自己驾车15英里到镇上去购买越来越贵的蔬菜和水果了。“在我看来，现在的油价真是一种犯罪”，他说。
At the same time, consumers are being buffeted by higher food prices. In Union, Ore., 78-year-old Dan Thompson has started to grow his own produce to avoid driving to a town 15 miles away to buy the increasingly pricey fruits and vegetables. 'The gas prices, as far as I'm concerned, are criminal,' he said.
他和妻子决定今年夏天不再像往年那样到亚利桑那州、犹他州和俄勒冈州等地看望子女了。他说：孩子们住的地方至少要开一天的车，今年我们恐怕不能再那么长途跋涉了。
He and his wife also have decided to skip their customary summer trek to Arizona, Utah and Oregon to visit their children. 'The kids live a day's drive away or more,' he said. 'We're probably not going to be able do that this year.'
石油公司表示，他们对原油价格飙升无能为力，他们指出，原油涨价是汽油涨价的主要原因。过去几个月来，炼油厂没能将原油涨价的影响全部转嫁到消费者头上。因此，尽管开采原油的利润一路飙升，但大型石油公司和独立炼油厂炼油业务的利润却一落千丈。
Oil companies say they have little control over soaring crude-oil prices, which they point to as the main cause of higher gasoline prices. Over the past months, the refiners who turn oil into fuels have been unable to pass the full increase in crude-oil prices through to consumers. As a result, while profits from producing oil have skyrocketed, major oil companies and independent refiners have seen earnings from their refining operations collapse.
油价是从2003年每桶30美元左右的价格开始逐步涨上来的，当时伊拉克战争刚刚开始。但高盛首席经济学家简?海休斯(Jan Hatzius)说，开始那几年是在经济强劲增长、信贷宽松、住房价格上涨的形势下发生的。
Oil prices have been rising steadily from around $30 a barrel in 2003, at the start of the Iraq war. But the first few years of those increases occurred 'in a period of strong growth, rising credit availability and rising house prices,' said Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs.
现在的关键问题是：长期而言，油价会回落还是继续高企？如果油价能迅速回落，即使是到100美元左右的水平，也能让汽油价格有所降低，进而缓解消费者受到的压力，改善他们对经济前景的信心。
The key question now: Will oil prices go back down, or remain elevated for the long run? A swift plunge in oil prices, even back to the relatively high level of $100 a barrel, would send gasoline costs lower and, as a result, ease pressure on consumers and improve their confidence in the economy.
而如果到秋天原油价格还在每桶135美元以上、汽油超过每加仑4美元，则美国商业前景可能会改变，美国人很多方面的消费习惯也将发生变化。
But if oil stays above $135 a barrel and gasoline tops $4 a gallon into the fall, that could reshape businesses and lead Americans to change their spending patterns in broader ways.
实际上，像汽车制造、航空、化工和其他一些对石油依赖很大的行业已经感受到了石油涨价之苦。大陆航空(Continental Airlines Inc.)上周表示，由于航空燃油涨价，将裁减3,000个职位，减少11%的运能，将飞机数量减少67架。在它之前，联合航空(United Airlines)和美利坚航空(American Airlines)也采取了类似措施。由于原油和天然气价格居高不下，全球最大化工企业之一陶氏化工(Dow Chemical Co.)计划将产品价格最高上调20%。
Already, auto makers, airlines, chemical companies and others that rely on oil are feeling the pain. Last week, Continental Airlines Inc. said it would cut 3,000 jobs, slash capacity by 11% and remove 67 airplanes from its fleet because of soaring jet-fuel prices. The move followed similar moves to cut capacity by UAL Corp.'s United Airlines and AMR Corp.'s American Airlines. Dow Chemical Co., one of the world's largest chemical manufacturers, is planning to raise its product prices up to 20% as a result of soaring costs for crude oil and natural gas.
百货零售业也受到影响，许多商店销售持平甚至出现下降，而仓储式零售店或折扣零售店销售却持续上涨，原因是经济形势萧条之下，消费者开始转向廉价商品。沃尔玛连锁店(Wal-Mart Stores Inc.)和其他折扣店业务走强，原因是政府的返税增加了消费者手里的可支配收入，但预计这一效应年底前将释放完毕。
Sales at many department stores are flat or declining, though warehouse clubs and discounters are reporting continued gains as shoppers seek bargains in the tough economic climate. Last week, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and other discounters reported strong business, citing the government rebate checks, but that effect is expected to dissipate by year end.
自己经营的唐?帕斯曼(Don Passman)说，汽油涨价让他的收入被吸走了一大块。
Don Passman, a self-employed handyman, said the rising price of gas is increasingly eating into his profits.
6 年前，他的皮卡车加满一箱油只要不到30美元，现在已经超过70美元。住在得克萨斯州埃伦（离达拉斯大约25英里）的帕斯曼由于工作关系需要到达拉斯或该地区其他城镇的客户家里上门服务，减少开车基本是不可能的事。“对我来说汽油涨价简直就像刀架在脖子上，一点办法都没有。”“即使涨到每加仑10美元我还是得开车”。
Six years ago, filling the tank of his pickup truck cost Mr. Passman less than $30. Now, he is paying more than $70. Because of his job, which involves commuting from his home in Allen, Texas, about 25 miles northeast of Dallas, to clients' houses in Dallas and other towns in the area, it is nearly impossible for him to cut back on driving. 'I feel like I'm being held at knifepoint,' he said. 'If they charge $10 a gallon, I'm going to pay it.'
今年43岁的帕斯曼说，汽油涨价的影响已经渗透到生活的方方面面，不论鸡蛋还是面包都在涨价，而人们的收入还是老样子。“不感到惊慌的人只是因为没太关注，”他说。
Mr. Passman, 43 years old, sees the higher prices of oil filtering into the prices of everything else, from eggs to bread, while wages remain steady. 'Anybody that's not scared is not paying attention,' he said.
Sudeep Reddy
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