Oil Prices Ready to Sink?
2008年06月05日08:37
石油泡沫是否行将破裂？
Is there an oil bubble that is about to burst?
华尔街一些大机构对此持肯定的看法。他们预计，如果美元走强，一些主要消费国的原油需求走软，石油市场可能会很快掉头向下。他们说，随着一些大型炼油厂和新油田在未来几个月里投产，且中国经济不再一片光明，供应面的紧张状况也会得到缓解。
Some big voices on Wall Street think so, predicting the oil market could tilt sharply south soon if the U.S. dollar strengthens and demand for crude oil weakens in some key consuming countries. Tightness on the supply side could also ease, they say, as some big refineries and new oil fields come onstream over the next few months and the outlook for the Chinese economy clouds over.
但不要寄希望于油价立刻出现大幅下挫。尽管石油价格已从近两周前的每桶133美元的历史高点有所回落，但仍有足够的理由认为，美国基准原油价格整个夏季都将维持在每桶120美元上下。
But don't count on a price plunge just yet. While oil has eased off its record of just over $133 nearly two weeks ago, there are still strong reasons to believe that the benchmark U.S. crude could hover at about $120 a barrel well past summer.
目前的问题是，人们对推动油价不断走高的原因存在很大的分歧。
At issue are deep disagreements over what is driving the run-up in oil prices.
在寻找替罪羊时，美国和一些国家的政府官员目前都把矛头对向了石油期货投机商，称有大量资金流向商品指数基金。但对油价大幅下跌持怀疑态度的人称，关键是供需基本面仍面临大量不利消息，目前市场的紧张状况不太可能在今后几个月缓和。
In the search for scapegoats, many on Capitol Hill in the U.S. and elsewhere are now blaming oil-futures speculators, noting the vast cash inflows into commodity index funds. But those skeptical of a sharp price fall point to a raft of continued gloomy news on the fundamental supply-and-demand side, arguing that an already tight market isn't likely to loosen for months.
过去一周里，看跌油价的呼声越来越高。雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)上周五认为目前的上涨同互联网泡沫时期的疯狂有相似之处：随着油价上涨，华尔街分析师屡屡上调价格预期，促使不断加入的新投资者将油价推到更高的水平，进而推动油价预期也进一步抬高。雷曼兄弟认为，已出现资产泡沫的典型征兆，金融投资者受到了羊群效应的驱使，纷纷追求曾有过的业绩水平。
The bearish argument has grown increasingly loud over the past week. Lehman Brothers on Friday compared the rally to the one-upmanship of the dot-com boom: Wall Street analysts have repeatedly raised their price forecasts as oil prices have soared, driving new investor flows that have pushed prices to still-higher levels, leading to still-higher price forecasts. Lehman sees the 'classic ingredients of an asset bubble,' with financial investors driven by a 'herd' instinct and chasing past performance.
对冲基金经理人乔治?索罗斯(George Soros)也发表了看法。周二他在美国国会作证表示，目前我们正经历房产泡沫的破裂，与此同时，石油和其它大宗商品价格的上涨也出现了泡沫的迹象。不过，索罗斯谨慎认为，石油市场的暴跌一时半会儿还不会出现。
Hedge-fund manager George Soros also has chimed in. 'We are currently experiencing the bursting of a housing bubble and, at the same time, a rise in oil and other commodities which has some of the earmarks of a bubble,' he said Tuesday in prepared testimony before the U.S. Senate. Mr. Soros cautioned, though, that a crash in oil markets was 'not imminent.'
将美元下跌视为油价上涨主要因素的经济学家现在认为，这种关系即将发生逆转。他们表示，鉴于美元出现走强迹象和对通胀的担忧减轻，油价也会走低。美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)主席本?贝南克(Ben Bernanke)周二表示进一步减息的可能性不大，这也给美元注入了一些上涨动力。
Economists who have cited the dollar's fall as a key factor in the rising price of oil now argue that that linkage is set to reverse. With the dollar now showing signs of strength, and the fears of inflation ebbing, oil prices also should fall, they say. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comment Tuesday that further interest-rate cuts are unlikely gave the dollar another upward jolt.
为了支持石油狂热与互联网泡沫的相似性，雷曼兄弟举出证据称，包括主权财富基金在内的机构投资者一直在增加对大宗商品的投资。雷曼兄弟计算，从2006年1月到2008年4月中旬，有900多亿美元的新增资金流入到商品指数类资产管理基金中。该公司称，每流入1亿美元新资金，西德克萨斯中质油的价格就上涨1.6%。
To back its dot-com analogy, Lehman Brothers cites evidence that institutional investors, including sovereign-wealth funds, have been increasing their exposure to commodities. The investment house calculates that from January 2006 to mid-April 2008, more than $90 billion of incremental investor flows was devoted to assets under management by commodity indexes. It said for every $100 million in new inflows, the price of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, increased by 1.6%.
不过也有人不同意投资驱动油价上涨的观点。巴克莱(Barclays Capital)驻伦敦分析师保罗?霍内尔(Paul Horsnell)称，如果供应量在五年内不能增加，而需求像前四、五年那样继续增长的话，那么石油就应该是现在这个价格。他说，油价将继续挑战高位，除非供需状况出现明显变化。
Yet others dispute the view that the run-up in crude oil is investor-driven. 'This is the price you get if supply doesn't expand for five years and demand continues to grow as it has done for the last four to five years,' says Paul Horsnell, an analyst with Barclays Capital in London. Prices will 'continue testing upward' unless the supply-and-demand picture changes substantially, he says.
其他人也对投资推动油价上涨的证据提出质疑。
Others have also disputed the evidence that investors are driving up the price of crude.
商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trading Commission)首席经济学家杰弗里?哈里斯(Jeffrey Harris)上月在给美国参议院的证词中表示，尽管西德克萨斯中质油的期货合约价格在过去14个月中上涨了一倍多，理财账户持有的头寸变化非常小。
In written testimony to the U.S. Senate last month, Jeffrey Harris, chief economist of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said that while futures-contract prices for WTI have more than doubled during the past 14 months, managed-money positions, as a fraction of the overall market, have changed very little.
他写道，投机头寸的变化并未放大原油期货的价格变化。具体来说，近期原油价格的上涨是在投机净头寸没有明显变化的情况下出现的。他还表示，没有证据表明投机头寸的变化先于原油期货合约价格的变化。
'Speculative position changes have not amplified crude-oil futures price changes,' he wrote. 'More specifically, the recent crude-oil price increases have occurred with no significant change in net speculative positions.' He also said there was no evidence that position changes by speculators 'precede price changes' for crude-oil-futures contracts.
霍内尔等人表示，油价在急升到每桶133美元后正在寻求新的平衡。即使通常看跌油价的美国能源部也认为油价不会很快下跌。能源部下属能源情报署(Energy Information Administration)的负责人盖伊?卡鲁索(Guy Caruso)周一表示，全球石油供应依然紧张，他预计到2009年油价将保持在每桶100美元之上。
Mr. Horsnell and others contend that after their precipitous rise to $133, oil prices are now seeking a new equilibrium. Even the normally bearish U.S. Energy Department doesn't see prices falling far anytime soon. Guy Caruso, head of the department's Energy Information Administration, cited continued tight global supplies Monday when he predicted that oil will stay above $100 a barrel through 2009.
有人认为，油价居高不下的主要因素是今年以来墨西哥、俄罗斯和委内瑞拉等部分主要出口国的石油产量意外大幅减少。石油输出国组织(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, 简称：欧佩克)中的主要产油国自去年下半年以来基本保持了产量稳定。
The main factor cited for sustained high prices is the surprisingly steep fall so far this year in production from some of the world's key exporters, particularly Mexico, Russia and Venezuela. The big producers within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have largely held their output steady since late last year.
尽管美国的需求出现下降，但多数发展中国家对柴油等成品油的渴求并未放缓。
Despite declining demand in the U.S., the thirst for petroleum products -- above all diesel -- continues apace in much of the developing world.
最近中国四川发生的强烈地震导致当地发电厂发生严重破坏，中国也被迫千方百计地筹措柴油供数千台发电机使用。海湾国家国内需求的增长阻碍了原油出口量的增加。
Rocked by the recent earthquake, China is now scrounging for all available sources of diesel to power thousands of generators that have taken the place of downed power plants. Surging domestic demand among Persian Gulf countries also continues to nibble away at available oil exports.
霍内尔说，解铃还须系铃人，只有供需面发生重大变化才能扭转当前这种局面。但目前我们还未看到这种情况出现。
'What will turn this around is a real change in what has pushed this up in the first place, which would be a notable shift on the supply-demand front,' said Mr. Horsnell. 'So far, we aren't seeing that.'
雷曼兄弟属于预计供需平衡将在未来几个月发生变化的阵营。沙特阿拉伯的新油田很快就将投产，新开工的大型炼油厂也将缓解生产瓶颈，给油品市场带来更大的竞争。俄罗斯已实施了减税政策，许多人预计此举将拉动停滞不前的石油产量。
Lehman is in the camp that expects the supply-demand balance to change in the coming months. New Saudi oil production should come onstream soon, as well as big new refineries that will ease bottlenecks and bring greater competition in oil-products markets. Russia is enacting tax breaks that many hope will lift stagnant oil production.
与此同时，随着西方国家经济开始减速，作为出口大国的中国其石油需求增幅预计也将出现回落。中国在奥运会前一直在屯积成品油，随着赛事结束，进口量可能会下降。
Meanwhile, oil-demand growth is expected to ease in fuel-hungry China, as the economic slowdown in its Western export markets takes hold. China also has been stockpiling fuel in the run-up to the Olympics, and with the Games over, imports might slow.
雷曼兄弟分析师迈克尔?沃德隆(Michael Waldron)说，所有这些都表明，石油价格将出现大幅调整。不过他预计年底前不太可能出现这种情况。
All this could 'set the stage for a significant correction' in the oil price, says Michael Waldron, an analyst with Lehman. Yet even he predicts that may not happen before the end of the year.
GUY CHAZAN / NEIL KING JR.
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