China's Auto-Parts Makers May Be OK
2008年05月30日14:50
经过了多年的高速增长后，中国的许多汽车零部件制造商开始出现了减速迹象，工资上涨、人民币升值和原材料价格攀升都是它们不得不面对的难题。不过分析师表示，该行业中的一些老牌企业仍是不错的投资选择。
AFTER YEARS of rapid growth, many of China's auto-parts makers seem to be hitting a speed bump as they cope with climbing wages, an appreciating local currency and rising raw-materials prices. But, analysts say, some of the industry's most established players remain good buys.
在这些企业中，面临最大挑战的是像浙江万丰奥威汽轮股份有限公司(Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel Co., 简称：万丰奥威)这样的轮胎制造商，以及汽车所需各种塑料部件的生产厂家，原因之一在于石油和铝材等商品价格的上涨推高了它们的成本。而另一方面，分析师认为，在上海证交所上市的福耀玻璃工业集团股份有限公司(Fuyao Group Glass Industries, 简称：福耀玻璃)和在香港上市的信义玻璃控股有限公司(Xinyi Glass Holdings)等汽车玻璃生产商则可能表现更好，因为它们具有稳固的市场占有率。
Among the companies facing the biggest challenges are wheel makers, such as Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel, and producers of the myriad molded plastic parts used to make cars -- in part because the soaring price of commodities like oil and aluminum are jacking up their costs. Auto-glass makers, such as Shanghai-traded Fuyao Group Glass Industries and Hong Kong-traded Xinyi Glass Holdings, on the other hand are likely to fare better because of solid market shares, analysts say.
联合证券(Lianhe Securities)驻深圳分析师姚宏光表示，今年是汽车零配件企业调整的一年。强者恒强，弱者更弱。
'This year is a correction year for auto parts,' says Yao Hongguang, a Shenzhen-based analyst for Lianhe Securities. 'The strong will be stronger, the weak, weaker.'
中国汽车零配件行业的利润增速今年开始放缓。中国国家统计局(National Statistics Bureau)的数据显示，2008年前两个月的全行业利润比上年同期增长了37%，而2007年的同期数据比2006年增长了90%以上。出口增幅也出现回落。今年第一季度，汽车零部件出口额增长了24%，低于上年同期的33%和2007年全年的35%。
Profit growth for China's auto-parts industry has slowed this year. Total industry profits grew 37% in the first two months of 2008 from the same period a year earlier, compared with more than 90% growth in January and February 2007, according to China's National Statistics Bureau. Export growth has also throttled down. In the first quarter of this year, auto-parts exports grew 24%, down from 33% in the same period a year earlier and from 35% for all of 2007.
天相投资顾问(TX Investment Consulting)驻北京分析师王明存说，总体出口形势显然不好。王明存最近将她跟踪的汽车零配件类股的评级从增持下调到了中性。她说，随着钢铁和铝等原材料成本的增加，以及劳动力成本的上升和人民币的升值，中国的出口优势已经不如以往了。
'The general situation for exports is definitely not good,' says Wang Mingcun, a Beijing-based analyst for TX Investment Consulting. Ms. Wang recently downgraded the auto-parts stocks she covers to 'neutral' from 'overweight.' 'With the booming cost of raw materials like steel and aluminium, the rising labor cost and the yuan appreciation, China won't have the same export advantages as before.'
联合证券的姚宏光对在深圳上市的万丰奥威股票的评级为中性。他说，在成本上升和人民币升值的环境下，该公司过于依赖对海外的出口。万丰奥威约有三分之二的产品销往海外。姚宏光说，他认为该股股价近期难有上升空间。
Mr. Yao of Lianhe Securities has a neutral rating on Wanfeng Auto Wheel, which lists A shares -- denominated in Chinese yuan and available mainly for domestic investors -- in Shenzhen. The company is heavily dependent on exports in an era of rising costs and an strengthening local currency, he says. About two-thirds of Wanfeng's sales go overseas. 'I don't see any room for its share price to rise soon,' says Mr. Yao.
今年第一季度万丰奥威的收入比上年同期下降了4.6%，至人民币3.835亿元（约合5,520万美元），但其净利润却增长了81%，为1,850万元。有分析师认为这主要是因为公司将重点放在了接获利润率更高的订单上。周四，万丰奥威下跌3%，收于8.20元。
While Wanfeng's revenue slipped 4.6% in the first quarter from a year ago to 383.5 million yuan ($55.2 million), its net profit jumped 81% to 18.5 million yuan, which one analyst believes resulted from the company concentrating on orders with higher margins. On Thursday, shares of Wanfeng fell 3% to close at 8.20 yuan.
人民币兑美元汇率自2005年7月政府放松汇率管制以来已累计上涨了14%以上，其中人民币的大部分升值是在去年实现的。周一，人民币汇率升至1美元兑6.94元，创出了历史新高。人民币走强会提高中国商品在海外市场的售价。
China's currency has appreciated more than 14% against the U.S. dollar since the government began liberalizing the exchange rate in July 2005 -- much of that in the past year. The currency hit 6.94 against the dollar on Monday, a record high. A stronger yuan makes Chinese goods relatively more expensive in foreign markets.
万丰奥威投资者关系部门的管理人员徐晓芳说，人民币升值给我们公司带来了很大影响，我们会竭尽全力谋求生存。
'Yuan appreciation has a big impact on our enterprise. We just try our best to survive,' says Xu Xiaofang, an official in the investor-relations department at Wanfeng.
不过，一些分析师认为人们对汽车零部件行业有些过于担忧了，尤其是对那些业内领头公司来说。花旗集团(Citigroup)驻香港分析师张文龙(Charles Cheung)认为，中国汽车零部件企业前景光明；同印度和墨西哥相比，中国仍占有优势。
Still, some analysts think concerns about the auto-parts sector are overblown, especially for the industry's top companies. 'I see a bright future for Chinese auto parts,' says Charles Cheung, an analyst at Citigroup in Hong Kong. 'Compared with India and Mexico, China still has advantages.'
张文龙说，劳动力成本的增加不大可能会损害优秀的汽车零部件企业。在中国，劳动力成本仅占零件生产成本的5%左右，而在美国和欧盟，这个比例是20%- 30%。他说，中国企业还能将产地从成本较高的沿海地区转移到工资水平较低的中国西部。至于原材料涨价，张文龙指出，这是影响到世界各地生产商的全球性现象，他们因而有可能将增加的成本转嫁到客户身上。
Mr. Cheung says labor-cost increases are unlikely to hurt the better auto-parts companies. In China, labor accounts for only about 5% of the cost of producing parts, compared with 20% to 30% in the U.S. or European Union. Chinese companies can also shift production away from more expensive coastal cities to lower-wage areas in western China, he says. As for rising raw-material prices, Mr. Cheung points out that it is a global phenomenon affecting producers everywhere, making it possible for manufacturers to pass along the added costs to their customers.
这位花旗集团分析师对信义玻璃(Xinyi Glass)股票的评级为买进。该公司生产汽车前挡夹层玻璃和钢化玻璃，是中国出口量最大的汽车玻璃生产商。张文龙在研究报告中写道，该公司的备件销售业务一直保持稳定增长，并一直在增加对中国国内汽车厂家的原装产品销售。他认为该股1年期的目标价格为10.30港元，比周四6.86港元（约合88美分）的收盘价高出约50%。
The Citigroup analyst has a buy on Xinyi Glass. The company, which makes laminated windshields and tempered side windows, is China's largest auto-glass exporter by volume. It has had steady growth in sales for the replacement-parts market and has been increasing original-equipment sales to Chinese domestic auto manufacturers, Mr. Cheung wrote in a report. He gave the stock a one-year target price of HK$10.30 -- 50% above Thursday's close of HK$6.86 (88 U.S. cents).
中银国际(Bank of China International)分析师王玉笙看好在深圳上市的宁波华翔电子股份有限公司(Ningbo Huaxiang Electronic, 简称：宁波华翔)。宁波华翔的主营业务是在国内市场，因此受汇率波动或欧美市场需求低迷的影响不大。此外，宁波华翔持有中国第一汽车集团公司(China FAW Group Corp.)旗下一家子公司49%的股份。第一汽车集团是中国最大的汽车生产企业之一，这就使宁波华翔具备了争取这个大客户的有利条件。王玉笙认为宁波华翔的目标股价是16元，该股周四下跌2.5%，收于13.68元。
Wang Yusheng, an analyst with Bank of China International, likes Ningbo Huaxiang Electronic, which lists A shares in Shenzhen. Huaxiang's main business is in the domestic market, so it is less susceptible to currency fluctuations or weakening demand from the U.S. and Europe. In addition, Huaxiang took a 49% stake in a subsidiary of China FAW Group Corp., one of China's biggest car makers, giving it preferred access to a big customer. Ms. Wang has a target price as 16 yuan for Huaxiang shares, which finished Thursday at 13.68 yuan, down 2.5%.
安信证券(Essence Securities)分析师孙木子说，总的来说，目前形势对汽车零部件出口商而言并非不利。在他看来，如果中国企业的整合能迫使一些严重依赖廉价劳动力成本的公司退出，那么具有技术创新能力、管理完善的企业将会做大做强。
Overall, the current situation 'is not negative for auto-parts exporters,' says Sun Muzi, an analyst for Shenzhen-based Essence Securities. In his view, if a consolidation of Chinese business forces out some companies that depend heavily on keeping labor costs low, then better-managed ones with innovative technologies will get stronger.
Bai Lin
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