Big-Tire Manufacturers Are Good Bets
2008年04月18日11:03
希望从中国的交通运输热潮中获益的投资者不妨关注一下生产大型轮胎的企业，分析师称，它们对保持中国经济的顺畅运行功不可没。
INVESTORS hoping to ride China's transportation boom should take a look at the companies that make the giant tires that help keep the economy rolling along, analysts say.
每年，都有数十万辆新生产的重型卡车和工程车辆驶上中国的道路。它们主要用于矿山和建筑工地，或是从事货物运输。这些车辆使用的全钢子午线轮胎中约有70%都是由国内轮胎厂家生产的，同时它们的出口业务也在不断发展。
Every year, hundreds of thousands of new heavy trucks and engineering vehicles get onto Chinese roads. They work at mines and construction sites and move goods. About 70% of the all-steel radial tires these vehicles use are supplied by homegrown tire makers, which also have a growing export business.
分析师表示，这些公司能够在中国股市下跌时为投资者提供一些保护。其中的首选是风神轮胎股份有限公司(Aeolus Tyre)和青岛双星股份有限公司(Qingdao Doublestar)，以及双钱集团股份有限公司(Double Coin Holdings)。前两家公司只有A股上市，而双钱集团除了A股外，还有以美元计价的B股上市。这三家公司是中国六家上市轮胎制造商中最大的三家。
Analysts say these companies could provide some protection for investors when China's stock market -- red-hot most of last year -- is suffering. Among their preferred bets: Aeolus Tyre, Qingdao Doublestar -- both of which list class A shares, mainly for domestic investors -- and Double Coin Holdings, which has A-class shares plus foreign-currency denominated B-class shares, which foreigners can buy.
同中国几乎所有的股票一样，这些公司的股票今年也出现了下跌。但它们的跌幅低于下跌了39%的上证综合指数。
Shares of these companies, the three biggest among six listed Chinese tire makers, have fallen this year, as have virtually all China stocks. But the tire makers' shares have slipped less than China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which has plunged 39%.
分析师表示，这三家大型轮胎制造商仍会继续在市场占有主导地位，原因之一就在于其强大的品牌形象。而它们的业务也在高速增长。平安证券(Ping An Securities)驻上海分析师程磊称，中国轮胎市场供不应求，尤其是优质产品。
Analysts say the three leading big-tire makers can continue to dominate the market, partly because of their strong brand names. Also, business is growing briskly. 'Supply is falling short of demand, especially for good products' in the Chinese tire market, says Cheng Lei, an analyst with Ping An Securities in Shanghai.
这些工厂生产的重型轮胎又称TBR轮胎，即卡车和客车子午线轮胎。它们由橡胶和全钢带束层组成，以承载巨大的负荷。轿车和轻型卡车的轮胎则采用由钢丝、尼龙以及更具柔韧性的材料混合而成的带束层。
The heavy-duty tires these companies make, known as TBR tires for 'truck and bus radial,' are made of rubber and all-steel belts to shoulder heavy loads. Car and light-truck tires use belts that mix steel with polyester and more flexible materials.
中国目前是全球最大的轮胎生产国之一。中国橡胶工业协会(China Rubber Industry Association)的数据显示，去年中国生产了3.30亿条轮胎，其中5,000万条属于全钢TBR轮胎。该协会预计，中国TBR轮胎的销售量在今后几年里每年将增长25%至30%，而中国的轮胎总销量每年将增长15%。
China is already one of the world's largest tire producers. It produced 330 million tires last year, of which 50 million were all-steel TBR tires, according to the China Rubber Industry Association. It predicts sales in China of TBR tires will grow 25% to 30% annually in the next several years, compared with 15% for all tires.
法国米奇林(Michelin)、日本普利司通轮胎公司(Bridgestone Corp.)和美国固特异公司(Goodyear Tire & Rubber)都将部分制造业务转到了中国，以降低成本。
Global tire makers such as Michelin of France, Bridgestone of Japan and Goodyear Tire & Rubber of the U.S. have shifted some manufacturing to China to cut costs.
但它们将重点放到了轿车轮胎上面。为了满足对速度、安全性和舒适性的需要，轿车轮胎需要有更先进的技术。业内分析师表示，中国国内轮胎厂家在市场的这个细分领域难以同国外对手竞争。
But they are focused on car tires, which require high technology to meet needs for speed, safety and comfort. Industry analysts say it is tough for China's domestic tire makers to compete with foreign rivals for this sophisticated part of the market.
但国内厂家抢占了重型轮胎市场。中国橡胶工业协会轮胎分会的黄积中说，这个领域不是外国公司的重点，但这是个有巨大潜力的市场。
But they have snatched the market niche for big, heavy-duty tires. 'It's not a focus of foreign companies, but it's a market with great potential,' says Huang Jizhong, an official dealing with tires at the rubber-industry association.
向中国运送三米多高、重达数吨的巨型轮胎成本高昂，而通过中国工厂满足当地的需求则更加划算，同时，中国低成本的轮胎对海外买家也深具吸引力。
It is expensive to ship to China giant tires that can weigh several tons and stand more than three meters tall. It is less expensive to meet local demand through Chinese factories, whose lower-cost tires, in turn, are attractive to overseas buyers.
分析师说，中国买家愿意选择本地TBR轮胎的另一个原因则是它们的设计符合中国较差的路况，以及法律禁止但却普遍存在的卡车超载现象。
Analysts say another reason Chinese buyers prefer local TBR tires is that their designs are adapted to tough Chinese road conditions, and to the banned, but still fairly widespread, practice of drivers overloading trucks.
TBR轮胎的制造商还会从大型车辆轮胎的迅速磨损中受益。平安证券的数据称，一辆重型卡车平均每年需要更换10到20条轮胎，而轿车仅为1.5条。
TBR makers also benefit from the way big vehicles quickly wear out tires. On average, a heavy truck needs to replace 10 to 20 tires a year, while a sedan needs only 1.5, according to Ping An Securities.
平安证券的程磊对青岛双星的评级为强烈建议买进。去年青岛双星的TBR轮胎年产量已经增加到260万条，而2001年时的产量仅为30万条。这家总部位于山东的公司称，它去年TBR轮胎的销量比2006年增长了90%。
Mr. Cheng, of Ping An, has a 'strong recommendation' on Qingdao Doublestar, listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Qingdao Doublestar, based in Shandong province, increased its annual TBR production capacity to 2.6 million tires last year, compared with 300,000 in 2001. The company says it sold 90% more TBR tires last year than in 2006.
青岛双星最近将轮胎价格提高了3%至5%，程磊表示，该公司和其它厂家能够将原材料成本的上涨转移给消费者。人民币走强降低了进口成本，全球橡胶价格上涨对中国制造商的影响也因此得到了缓解。
Qingdao Doublestar recently raised tire prices 3% to 5%, and Mr. Cheng says it and other makers can pass along rising raw-material costs to customers. The effect of rising world rubber prices on Chinese manufacturers has also been mitigated by the strengthening of China's currency, which reduces the cost of imports.
程磊说，当产品供应很难满足需求时，价格自然就会上涨。他预计TBR轮胎短缺的局面近期内不会结束。
'When it's too hard for supply of a product to meet the demand, price rises come naturally,' says Mr. Cheng. He expects a shortage of TBR tires won't end any time soon.
程磊估计，青岛双星每提价1%，全年净利润就能增加近4,000万元，约合600万美元。该公司2007年的净利润为8,889万元。
Mr. Cheng calculates that each 1% that Qingdao Doublestar can raise prices will add nearly 40 million yuan, or almost $6 million, to its annual net profit. The company reported 2007 net income of 88.89 million yuan.
青岛双星的股票周四收于人民币6.90元（约合0.99美元），较去年底的水平下跌了4.4%。
Shares of Qingdao Doublestar closed Thursday at 6.90 yuan (99 cents), or 4.4% below their level at the end last year.
海通证券(Haitong Securities)分析师刘金推荐的是风神轮胎。总部位于河南的这家公司正在建设年产15万条工程子午胎的工厂。刘金对该公司的评级为买进，12个月目标股价是30元，是目前股价的1倍以上。周四风神轮胎收于13.29元，自今年初以来下跌了7.4%。
Liu Jin, an analyst at Haitong Securities, recommends Aeolus Tyre. The Henan-based company is building a facility to produce 150,000 off-road radial tires annually for engineering vehicles. Mr. Liu has a 'buy' rating on the company, and a 12-month target price of 30 yuan -- more than double the current price. Aeolus Tyre shares ended Shanghai trading Thursday at 13.29 yuan, or 7.4% down from the start of the year.
也有部分分析师看好上海的双钱集团。刘金说，该公司在技术和品牌知名度方面都居于领先地位。双钱集团股票的表现不如风神轮胎和青岛双星。双钱集团A股周四收于7.48元，自今年以来下跌了32%，双钱集团B股周四收于0.59美元，今年以来下跌了34%。
Some analysts also like Shanghai-based Double Coin. 'It is a leading company in both technology and brand awareness,' says Mr. Liu. Double Coin's shares haven't fared as well as those of Aeolus and Qingdao Doublestar. Double Coin's A shares ended Thursday at 7.48 yuan -- down 32% for the year -- while its B shares, which closed at 59 cents, are off 34% this year.
并非所有人都看好轮胎类股。难以驱散的不确定因素令大多数分析师都建议对目前买入中国股票持谨慎态度。
Not everyone is bullish on the tire stocks. Continued uncertainty is making most analysts suggest caution in buying any Chinese shares now.
轮胎业务本身也有令人担忧的因素。其中一个是进口中国轮胎的国家与中国的贸易纠纷增多，也采取了更为严格的监管措施。去年，一家美国进口商召回了中国杭州中策橡胶有限公司(Hangzhou Zhongce Rubber Co.)生产的一批轮胎，原因是可能存在安全隐患。今年初，美国商务部(Commerce Department)初步裁定对从中国进口的数百万条非公路工程轮胎征收平均24.75%的反倾销税，称原因在于这些产品被以不合理的低价销售到美国。
There are also concerns specific to the business. One is a growing number of trade disputes and regulatory actions in countries importing China-made tires. Last year, a U.S. importer recalled a batch of tires made by a Chinese company, Hangzhou Zhongce Rubber Co., for suspected safety defects. Earlier this year, the U.S. Commerce Department set preliminary antidumping duties of an average 24.75% on millions of off-road tires from China it said were being sold at unfairly low prices.
但这一裁决可能不会产生很大影响。风神轮胎称，去年向美国交付的非公路轮胎仅占总出口额的0.6%。
But that ruling isn't likely to have a significant impact. Aeolus Tyre said off-road tire shipments to the U.S. made up just 0.6% of its total export value last year.
部分分析师还担心特种轮胎制造商服务的这个市场可能规模太小，不足以维持长期的增长。国金证券(Sinolink Securities)分析师刘波说，这块市场的容量有限，而竞争看来正在加剧。
Some analysts also worry that the niche market that the specialty-tire makers serve is probably too small to sustain long-term growth. 'The market capacity is limited. Competition appears to be growing fierce,' says Liu Bo, a Shanghai-based analyst with Sinolink Securities.
Ellen Zhu
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