Pricier Car Demand Puts Pressure On Chinese Makers
2008年04月17日12:13
两年前，宗跃（音）花7万元（按当前汇率约合1万美元）购买了一辆中国一汽轿车股份有限公司(FAW Car Co.)生产的微型轿车。这款轿车车身狭小，也没有电动车锁和定速巡航系统，但它还是吸引了在北京一家美资高科技公司做营销管理工作的宗跃。一汽轿车是位于长春的中国第一汽车集团公司(China First Auto Works Group)的子公司。
Two years ago Yue 'Ricky' Zong paid 70,000 yuan, or $10,000, for a minicar made by China's FAW Car Co., a unit of First Auto Works based in Changchun. The car was cramped and didn't have power locks or cruise control, but it got the 31-year-old marketing executive around Beijing, where he works for a U.S. high-tech company.
如今，31岁的宗跃计划成家，加上从银行获得的一大笔分红，他不再满足于最基本的交通工具，而是想用20万元左右购买一款更大，更舒适些的座驾。宗跃和妻子目前考虑的一款轿车是本田思域(Honda Civic)。这次侧气囊成了必需的配置。他说，我们现在的轿车太小，也不够安全。
Now with plans to start a family and a big bonus in the bank, Mr. Zong wants more than just basic transportation and is planning to spend about 200,000 yuan on a bigger, comfier ride. One car Mr. Zong and his wife are considering is the Honda Civic. And side air bags are a must feature this time. 'Our current car is just too small and not safe enough,' he said.
宗跃的汽车升级计划显示出，中国蓬勃发展的汽车业中正在发生的巨大转变预计会在下周向公众开放的北京汽车展上更加清晰地显现出来。中国的轿车买家不再满足于简陋的经济型轿车，他们凭借自己新积累的财富开始将眼光投向美国等发达国家市场上的主流车型，这些车更宽敞也更昂贵。
Mr. Zong's transportation upgrade illustrates a broader shift in China's booming auto industry that is expected to become even clearer at the Beijing auto show slated to open to the public next week. No longer content with no-frills econoboxes, Chinese car buyers are increasingly using their new wealth to buy the kind of bigger, more-expensive wheels that predominate in developed markets such as the U.S.
这种转变还在降低市场对入门级轿车的需求，并对中国各种规模的汽车厂家都产生了重要影响。对通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)和丰田汽车(Toyota Motor Corp.)等跨国汽车公司乃至它们在中国的合作伙伴而言，这是一个好兆头。他们生产的正是宗跃这样的消费者下一步想购买的轿车，比如丰田凯美瑞(Camry)和大众汽车(Volkswagen AG)的速腾(Jetta)等。目前，中国是全球第二大轿车市场。
The shift, which also is undercutting demand for entry-level cars, has important consequences for auto makers of all sizes in China, now the world's second largest market for passenger vehicles. It bodes well for the global auto makers such as General Motors Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp. and their Chinese partners. Together they produce the kinds of cars consumers like Mr. Zong are moving to, such as Toyota's Camry and Volkswagen AG's Jetta.
另一方面，低成本轿车销售的放缓可能给吉利汽车(Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.)和奇瑞汽车(Chery Automobile Co.)等近年来飞速发展的本土汽车厂家带来压力，他们的产品以低端轿车为主。奇瑞最为畅销的一款轿车是最低售价约为4,500美元的奇瑞QQ。
On the flip side, a slowdown in sales growth of low-cost cars could pressure China's upstart auto makers -- such as Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and Chery Automobile Co. -- that have focused on that segment of the market. One of Chery's big sellers is the QQ model, which is priced as low as about $4,500.
J.D. Power & Associates驻上海的分析师邓凯(Michael Dunne)说，中国城市中产阶层财富的增长意味着承受能力已经越来越不是消费者购买轿车时的决定因素，价格低廉对他们已经不再起作用了。
The rising wealth of China's urban middle class means affordability is less and less a deciding factor in which car consumers buy, said Michael Dunne, an analyst for J.D. Power & Associates in Shanghai. 'Cheap price tags alone aren't going to do it for them any more,' he said.
从去年开始，这种变化已开始影响到中国本土的汽车厂家。奇瑞发言人金弋波说，该公司去年9月注意到了这种趋势，当时微型轿车的销量开始大幅下滑，而人们还在继续涌入销售更大、更高级轿车的经销店。这种变化对QQ的冲击尤其大，而奇瑞较大的车型，如A5、东方之子和旗云则基本没有受到什么影响。奇瑞去年的汽车销售总量为392,000辆，比上一年增长了30%，这主要得益于海外的强劲需求。
The effect of the change began to hit small home-grown Chinese auto makers last year. Jin Yibo, a Chery spokesman, said the Anhui province auto maker noticed the trend in September when sales of its small cars began slipping substantially while people continued to flock to dealers for larger, more upscale cars. The change hit the QQ car particularly hard, even though the company's bigger models, such as the A5, the East Son and the Qiyun, felt little impact. Chery, whose sales totaled 392,000 vehicles last year, was able to boost sales, by 30% from a year earlier, largely because of strong demand for its car from overseas.
同样，由于出口强劲，吉利汽车2007年的净利润增长了51%，但公司并未完成年度销售目标。该公司称，去年的净利润增至3.15亿港元（4,040万美元），公司2007年收入增长8.0% ，至1.372亿港元，上年为1.27亿港元。吉利称，2007年共销售了181,517辆轿车，比上一年增长10%，但远低于最初所定24万辆的目标。这其中有2万辆轿车出口海外，比2006年的1万辆增加了一倍。
Similarly, Geely's 2007 net profit rose 51% on strong export demand, despite the company's failure to meet its annual sales target. The Zhejiang province-based manufacturer said net profit last year rose to HK$315 million (US$40.4 million). Revenue rose 8% to HK$137.2 million. Geely said it sold 181,517 cars in 2007, up 10% from a year earlier and far short of its original target of 240,000 units. Of the total, 20,000 cars were exported overseas, double the 10,000 sent in 2006.
独立和规模较小的汽车厂家面临的困境可能会让中国汽车工业逐步走向整合。中国目前有近100家公司生产轿车，但从长远看，大多数厂家将会消失，尤其是在汽车销量增幅逐步放缓的情况下。波士顿咨询公司(Boston Consulting Group)称，过去几年里市场的平均年增幅约为25%，去年中国的汽车销量超过了800万辆。这是美国销量的一半左右，但却是德国汽车销量的两倍以上。
Trouble for the small and independent auto makers could move the Chinese industry a step closer to a phase of consolidation. Nearly 100 companies make cars in China, but in the long run most will disappear, especially as growth in auto sales moderates. On average the market has grown about 25% a year for the past several years, and last year more than eight million cars were sold in China, according to Boston Consulting Group. That is about half as many as were sold in the U.S., but more than twice as many as in Germany.
波士顿咨询预计，在今后8年里，汽车销量年增速有望保持在8%左右。
During the next eight years, vehicle-sales growth is expected to average about 8% a year, according to estimates by Boston Consulting Group.
增长放缓已经打击了低端市场。密歇根州市场研究机构CSM Worldwide称，奇瑞QQ这样的微型车的销量去年仅增长了3.9%，为127万辆。而包括凯美瑞和捷达这种中型车和小型车阵营的销量则增长了32%，为334万辆。
Slower growth is already hitting the low end of the market. Sales of mini- and subcompact cars such as the Chery QQ grew just 3.9% last year, to 1.27 million vehicles, according to Northville, Michigan-based market researcher CSM Worldwide. In contrast, compact and midsize cars, a grouping that includes the Camry and Jetta, grew 32% to 3.34 million vehicles.
整合的迹象正在显现。去年，上海汽车工业(集团)总公司(Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp.)就收购了南京汽车(Nanjing Auto)。上海汽车是通用汽车在中国的两家合作伙伴之一。
Signs pointing to a consolidation are already cropping up. Last year, Nanjing Auto was acquired by Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp., or SAIC, one of GM's two partners in China.
CSM驻上海分析师张豫(Yale Zhang)说，显然，我们在今后5年里会看到更多的并购。我们会看到汽车业的动荡。
'For sure, we will see more mergers and acquisitions in the next five years,' said Yale Zhang, a SCM analyst in Shanghai. 'We're going to see a shakeout.'
为了生存，汽车厂家必须针对中国不断壮大的城市中产阶级做出调整，这一群体正变得更加富裕，更加成熟。一些中国汽车厂家已经开始主动适应这一局面。
To survive, auto makers must adjust to China's expanding urban middle class, which is getting both richer and more sophisticated. Some of China's auto makers are already scrambling to adapt.
比如，预计吉利下周将公布应对中国汽车市场最新一轮变化的举措。该公司计划在北京汽车展上展出几款概念车，显露一些未来车型的发展方向。有人称，这些车型会更大，更圆滑，显示出欧洲、日本和美国高级轿车的精致。
Geely, for instance, is expected to reveal next week how it plans to respond to this latest turn in the fast-changing Chinese auto market. At the Beijing auto show, the Hangzhou-based auto maker plans to show several 'concept' cars hinting at the direction of future models, which are going to be larger and sleeker and show the sophistication, some say, of top cars in Europe, Japan and the U.S.
波士顿咨询驻慕尼黑的研究员Nikolaus Lang说，10年前，当轿车刚开始进入中国中产阶层消费者的视野时，它们主要被当作市内交通工具，能满足中、低速驾驶即可。他最近完成了一项有关中国汽车业的研究。
A decade ago, when cars came within the reach of people entering China's middle class, they were primarily for city use with people driving at low speeds, said Nikolaus Lang, a Boston Consulting researcher in Munich, who recently completed a study on China's auto industry.
但他说，汽车厂家正面临中国消费文化大转变的时代，中国消费者现在要求产品有更高的安全性和质量，配置更加齐全。因此，他们开始青睐在安全性和质量方面经受过考验的大、中型外国车型。
But now auto makers are encountering 'an overall cultural shift among Chinese consumers demanding higher levels of safety, quality and integrity of products,' Mr. Lang said. As a result they are buying larger foreign models with proven track records in safety and quality.
27岁的北京人徐晨曦（音）就是其中之一。从英国留学回国后，他成立了一家房地产公司，得益于2008年北京奥运会推动的房地产热，他的业务蒸蒸日上。他一直驾驶着一辆2005年以11万元购买的别克HRV，这是一款四缸发动机的掀背式小车。
Chenxi 'Tony' Xu, a 27-year old Beijing native, is one of them. Educated in Britain, he set up a real-estate business that has taken off, thanks in part to the 2008 Olympic Games that have fueled a housing boom in China's capital. He has been driving a Buick HRV, a GM compact hatchback with small, four-cylinder engine that he bought in 2005 for 110,000 yuan.
但他正计划升级到奔驰(Mercedes-Benz) C200。这是一款动力强劲的运动型轿车，具有真皮座椅和根据路况自动调整悬挂设置的系统。价格是40万元。
But he is planning to upgrade to a Mercedes-Benz C200, a supercharged sports sedan with leather seats and a system that automatically adjusts the suspension setup depending on the condition of the road. The price tag: 400,000 yuan.
徐晨曦说，别克HRV虽然具有运动型外观，但发动机的马力太小。他对这款车的加速性能感到不满。他说，奔驰车能在8秒左右时间从静止状态提速到每小时100公里，而且安全性也很好。
'The thing about the Buick HRV is that it has a sporty look, but the engine is gutless,' Mr. Xu said, griping about the car's less-than-desirable acceleration. 'The Mercedes can hit 100 [kilometers an hour] from a standstill in about eight seconds, and the car is loaded with safety features.'
Norihiko Shirouzu
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