Oil Already Numb To China's Stimulus
原油市场已把中国5,860亿美元经济刺激举措的影响抛在脑后。原油期货价格周一受这个消息的提振出现上扬，但周二不仅回吐了前一交易日的所有涨幅，还出现了进一步下挫。
Oil markets have shrugged off China's $586 billion stimulus package. Having risen Monday on news of the plan, crude oil gave up those gains and more on Tuesday.
市场的怀疑态度源于两个因素。首先，经济刺激方案中的一些措施已经在执行，如为出口商退税。Brown Brothers Harriman的首席全球货币策略师钱德勒(Marc Chandler)估计，中国政府的实际新支出在1,500亿美元左右，约占所报导金额的25%。
Such skepticism stems from two things. First, some measures in the plan, such as tax breaks for exporters, were known about already. Marc Chandler, chief global currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, estimates real new spending at about $150 billion, or 25% of the headline total.
不管怎样，中国2007年的原油日消费量仅为750万桶，而经济明显放缓的发达经济体的日消费量为4,920万桶。换句话说，后者消费量每减少1%，中国则需增加6.6%的原油需求来弥补。随着中国经济降温──别忘了，这正是经济刺激措施出台的原因──如此大的需求增幅看起来非常不现实。
In any case, China consumed just 7.5 million barrels of oil per day in 2007, against 49.2 million barrels a day in the developed economies now slowing dramatically. In other words, every 1% drop in the latter's consumption requires a 6.6% increase in Chinese oil demand just to offset it. With the economy cooling - the reason for the stimulus, remember - such growth looks very unrealistic.
此外，批发商和炼油厂为迎接奥运会而储备了一些原油，原因之一在于他们预计政府控制的零售价格会在奥运会后有所上调，来为消费降温。
In addition, oil was stockpiled by wholesalers and refiners in the run up to the Olympics, partly in anticipation that government controlled retail fuel prices would be raised afterwards to moderate consumption.
但是事过境迁。金融服务公司GaveKal预计零售油价本月会下调10%。批发商或许也将消耗现有的原油库存，肯定不会急着进口。因此，那些习惯于把急需能源的中国看作是救世主的油价看涨人士将会倍感失望。
Times have changed. Financial services firm GaveKal expects retail prices to instead be cut 10% this month. Wholesalers will probably liquidate oil inventories and certainly be in no rush to buy more imports. Oil bulls used to looking towards a thirsty Beijing for salvation will be disappointed.
Liam Denning
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