America's Two Auto Industries
你能想像没有通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)的日子么？眼下这就是美国政治领导人面临的紧迫问题。
Can you imagine life without General Motors Corp. (GM)? That's now an urgent question facing America's political leaders.
通用汽车已有百年历史，经历了两次世界大战、大萧条时期以及经济的各次起伏周期。但这家公司上周五表示，公司明年年中之前面临严重的财务崩溃风险，除非美国经济出现明显好转，资本市场解冻，或是政府提供资金帮助公司渡过难关。
GM survived for 100 years, steering through two world wars, the Great Depression, and all the booms and busts in between. But on Friday, GM said it faces a substantial risk of financial collapse by the middle of next year unless the economy makes a significant improvement, the capital market freeze thaws, or the government provides the money to sustain the company through the downturn.
民主党控制的国会和当选总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)上周暗示，他们愿意伸出援手。奥巴马上周五表示，汽车业是美国制造业的支柱，是我们降低对海外石油依赖的重要组成部分。
The Democratic Congress and President-elect Barack Obama signaled last week they are willing to lend a hand. 'The auto industry is the backbone of American manufacturing and a critical part of our attempt to reduce our dependence on foreign oil,' Obama said Friday.
由此看来，问题并不是华盛顿是否愿意提供更多公众资金帮助汽车公司渡过难关。外界甚至似乎就救助资金规模也达成了一致：至多500亿美元。更棘手的问题是华盛顿的目标何在？
So the question isn't whether Washington is willing to offer more public money to help auto companies survive. There even appears to be a consensus on how much: Up to $50 billion. The tougher question is what's Washington's goal?
首先，国会和奥巴马需要确定他们所谓的“汽车业”的内涵。
First, Congress and Obama will need to decide what they mean by 'the auto industry.'
美国存在着两种汽车业。一个是以通用汽车、福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)和克莱斯勒(Chrysler)为代表的中西部汽车制造商，这些公司拥有工会，背负着沉重的退休工人负担，受到源自上世纪初的营销和产品策略的束缚。
America has two auto industries. The one represented by GM, Ford Motor Co. (F) and Chrysler is Midwestern, unionized, burdened with massive obligations to retirees, and shackled to marketing and product strategies that have roots reaching back to the early 1900s.
另外一个美国汽车业主要位于南部，这些公司没有工会，退休人员很少，相应的责任也相对较少，享有各种优势条件，因为其欧洲、日本和韩国母公司相对近期才在美国开展业务。它们的工厂相对较新，品牌形像和营销策略也更为一致（例如，丰田汽车(Toyota Motor Corp.)在美国市场使用3个品牌，而通用汽车则有8个），它们还拥有设计定位于全球市场竞争的车型。
The other American auto industry is largely Southern and non-union, owes relatively little to the few retirees it has, and enjoys a variety of advantages because its Japanese, European and Korean owners launched operations in this country relatively recently. Their factories are newer, their brand images and marketing strategies are more coherent - Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) uses three brands in the U.S. to GM's eight - and they have cars designed for the competitive global market that exists today.
本田汽车(Honda Motor Co.)在全球范围销售一款基本款思域(Civic)，而对手福特福克斯(Focus)则有两个不同的版本。福特汽车目前正在打造一款利用全球规模经济优势的福克斯车型，但这款新车要到2010年才会在美国市场上市。
Honda Motor Co. (HMC) sells one basic Civic worldwide. Ford sells two different versions of its rival Focus compact car. Ford is engineering one Focus to take advantage of global economies of scale, but the new car won't hit the U.S. market until 2010.
美国汽车研究中心(Center for Automotive Research)近期的一项研究表明，美国这一新生汽车业雇佣了大约11.3万员工。经济下滑同样也给这些制造商的销量和利润带来了冲击。但它们并没有四处求援，可能也无望获得补贴，因为目前为止管理汽车业救助提案的规定实际上将它们排除在外了。
The New American auto industry employs about 113,000 people, according to a recent study by the Center for Automotive Research. The economic slump is hammering sales and profits for these manufacturers, too. But they aren't looking for subsidies, and probably wouldn't get any since the rules governing the auto industry aid proposals to date effectively exclude them.
因此目前这场争论只限于以底特律汽车三巨头为代表的美国传统汽车工业。根据美国汽车研究中心的研究，底特律三巨头直接雇佣员工超过20万人，还间接维系着将近300万人的工作。尽管实力有所衰弱，但三巨头仍然占据美国国内生产总值(GDP)的4%左右。它们还代表着一种顺其自然的业务模式。通用汽车寻求联邦政府救援使得这一点正式化了。
So this debate is strictly about the Old American auto industry, represented by the 'Big Three' of Detroit. The Detroit Three employ more than 200,000 people directly, and sustain nearly 3 million more indirectly, according to the CAR study. Diminished as they are, the Detroit Three still account for about 4% of U.S. gross domestic product. They also represent a way of doing business that has run its course. GM's plea for a federal bailout makes that official.
美国政府可能会用防止底特律汽车工业失业加剧的理由为救助补贴辩护。但这可能会推迟这些拥有工会的汽车制造商继续生存所需要的重组。21世纪的美国汽车市场高度分化，汽车制造商需要足够灵活才能在10%-15%甚至更低的市场份额中盈利，而不是通用汽车不到10年前力争的29%市场占有率。政府是想介入到为裁员提供补贴的事务中来吗──为那些失业工人的再培训和再安置买单吗？
The government could justify subsidies as a way to prevent more job losses at the Detroit auto makers. But that would risk delaying the restructuring the unionized auto makers need to be viable. In the fragmented U.S. auto market of the 21st Century, auto makers will need to be nimble enough to make money on 10%-15% market share or less - not the 29% that GM was aiming for less than a decade ago. Does the government want to get into the business of subsidizing job cuts - paying for retraining and relocation for those who lose their jobs?
华盛顿可能会确定，动用纳税人资金为底特律汽车制造商提供补贴的目的是增加市场上省油、高科技汽车的数量。上周在华盛顿和底特律三巨头管理人士会谈时，美国众议院议长佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)曾作过如此暗示。
Washington could decide the goal in providing taxpayer-financed subsidies to the Detroit auto makers is to increase the number of fuel efficient and high technology cars on the market. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi hinted at this last week in discussions with Detroit Three executives in Washington.
回顾以往，政府介入汽车产品战略的成效喜忧参半。东德共产主义政府曾提出买得起的个人交通工具的想法，可笑的Trabant汽车就是这一想法的产物。好的方面来看，加州空气资源委员会(California Air Resources Board)的“零排放”要求等政府命令有效推动了汽车制造商大举开发新技术；若非如此，这些技术恐怕已被束之高阁了。政府干预也是丰田普瑞斯(Prius)等油电混合动力车出现的原因之一。
The success of government-mandated automotive product strategies is mixed. The laughable Trabant was a product of the East German Communist government's ideas about affordable personal transportation. On the other end of the spectrum, government mandates such as the California Air Resources Board's demands for 'zero emission' vehicles have spurred auto makers to take risks on new technology they otherwise might have left on the shelf. Modern gas-electric hybrids such as the Toyota Prius exist in part because of bureaucrats.
华盛顿为刺激节能型汽车销量而可能采取的一个手段是设置最低汽油价格，美国部分地区汽油价格已经跌破了每加仑2美元。现在没人讨论这个想法。
One thing Washington could do to spur profitable sales of fuel-stingy cars is put a floor under gas prices, which now have dipped below $2 a gallon in some parts of the country. No one's discussing such an idea.
或许政府将决定其任务应该是给底特律三巨头一个机会，使得它们在医疗成本问题上可以与国际竞争对手处于同一起跑线。
Perhaps the government will decide that its role should be to give the Detroit Three the chance to play the same game as its international rivals when it comes to the costs of health care.
母公司在欧洲和日本的汽车制造商起步伊始就带有明显优势，因为它们不需要背负大量退休人员的医疗成本负担，它们的收入或资产负债表没有直接承受这方面的压力。这些成本主要由政府承担，转移给了纳税人。
Auto makers with home operations in Europe and Japan start with a big advantage in that they are not directly shouldering on their income or balance sheets the burden of providing health care to the bulk of their retirees. Those costs are largely borne by the government and the costs spread to taxpayers.
底特律三巨头于2007年制定了一个机制，把2010年之前的工会退休医疗负担交给由全美汽车工人联合会(UAW)控制的信托基金。但这些信托基金尚未到位运营，也没有获得充足融资。政府补贴可以用来弥补这个资金缺口，使得底特律三巨头可以把它们的现金投入到改进车型中去。这个提议获得了UAW的支持。
The Detroit Three in 2007 set up a mechanism to unload their union retiree health obligations by 2010 to trusts controlled by the United Auto Workers. But those trusts aren't up and running yet, and aren't fully funded. Government subsidies could be used to plug that funding gap, and allow the Detroit Three to put their cash into better cars. This is a proposal the UAW supports.
政府500亿美元救助资金还可以有一个用途。政府可以为明年购买美国生产新轿车或卡车的消费者提供每辆车4,000-5,000美元的退税额。那些以低里程汽车换购节能汽车（油耗减少15%-20%）的消费者，这一退税额可能会按比例增加；从海湾国家进口的石油占美国总消耗量的比例大体上也是15%-20%。
There's another thing the government could do with $50 billion. It could give a $4,000 to $5,000 tax rebate to everyone who buys a new car or truck made in the United States during the next year. The tax break could be scaled up for people who trade in a low mileage vehicle for a vehicle that burns 15%-20% less gas - a percentage that's roughly equivalent to the share of oil the U.S. imports from the Persian Gulf.
让消费者来决定汽车企业应该从政府补贴中获得什么好处或许并不能拯救通用汽车。但这样的话，政府就不必在美国两大汽车业之间作出选择了。
Leaving it up to consumers what auto companies should benefit from government subsidies might not save GM. But it would save the government from having to choose sides between America's two auto industries.
Joseph B. White
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