For Toyota, India Offers New Frontier
2008年01月11日12:58
丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)的销量在过去几十年中不断增长，并有可能已在2007年成为了全球最大的汽车制造商，这主要是因为公司在美国市场实现了稳步发展，丰田汽车已在美国人心目中树立起了可靠耐用的良好形象。但它的下一个战场将是印度等新兴市场，目前这些地区的消费者主要关心的还是价格问题，因此丰田对可靠性的重视正使其逐渐落后于竞争对手。
Toyota Motor Corp.'s past decades of sales growth -- which might have made the Japanese company the world's largest car maker for 2007 -- came largely from a steady buildup in the U.S., where it developed a reputation for reliability and durability. But its next battleground is in emerging markets like India, where low cost is the main concern for consumers so far -- and Toyota's focus on reliability is leaving it trailing its competitors.
丰田汽车周四宣布，2007年全球销量增长了6%，达到937万辆，略高于通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.) 930万辆的2007年预期销量。通用汽车尚未公布07年的销量数据，不过，除非实际销量高出预期，否则丰田汽车将成为去年的汽车销量冠军，夺走通用汽车占据76年的霸主地位。
Toyota Thursday announced a 6% rise in global sales last year to 9.37 million vehicles, a bit more than General Motors Corp.'s sales estimate of 9.3 million vehicles for 2007. GM has yet to release its actual sales figures for the year. But unless they come in higher than its estimate, Toyota will become the world's biggest auto maker for the year, dislodging GM from a title it has held for 76 years.
丰田汽车的成功很大程度上应归功于它在美国市场的崛起。在美国，该公司通过制造省油的小型轿车起家，一些最受欢迎的车型也在美国生产，如卡罗拉(Corolla)和凯美瑞(Camry)、汉兰达(Highlander)等运动型多用途车、新款Tundra小型货车以及普锐斯(Prius)混合动力车。
Toyota's success is in large part because of its energies in the U.S., where it started as a fledgling auto maker known for its small, gas-sipping vehicles. It went on to produce some of the most popular vehicles in the country, including the Corolla and Camry, sport-utility vehicles such as the Highlander, the new Tundra pickup and the Prius hybrid.
但分析师一直批评丰田汽车对进入“金砖四国”（巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国）市场反应过于迟缓，市场份额落后于其他下手更快的竞争厂商。全球汽车市场研究机构CSM Worldwide Inc.的数据显示，通用汽车2007年在这四个市场中的合计销量超过了丰田汽车。通用汽车的优势意味着，即使丰田汽车2007年的总销量超过了通用，但今年也未必能巩固住这一地位。
But analysts have criticized the company for moving too slowly into the so-called BRIC markets -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- and losing market share to other, more nimble competitors. GM outsold Toyota in the combined four countries in 2007, according to CSM Worldwide Inc., a global auto-market research firm. GM's strength in these markets means that even if Toyota does turn out to have outsold GM in 2007, it might not retain that top position this year.
总体而言，在全球前20大汽车市场中，通用汽车在其中15个市场仍领先于丰田，不过CSM的预测显示，丰田2013年前会在其中一些市场中超过通用汽车。
In all, GM remains ahead of its Japanese rival in 15 of the world's 20 largest car markets, though forecasts by CSM show Toyota overtaking the U.S. firm in several of these by 2013.
在印度，竞争厂家一直在大力制造超低价格的轿车，以满足首次购车者。这些人无力购买那些比较上档次的轿车，只希望有个比摩托车高级一些的代步工具就行。印度最大的汽车厂商Tata Motors Ltd.在周四推出了世界上最便宜的轿车Nano，售价100,000卢比，约合2,500美元。其他轿车厂商也表示要步Tata的后尘。Bajaj Auto Ltd.计划同日产汽车(Nissan Motor Co.)和雷诺公司(Renault SA)合作生产小型轿车，在2至4年内推向市场。
In India, rivals have been striving to produce ultracheap cars to satisfy first-time car buyers who can't afford a full-scale car but want something more than a motorcycle or scooter. On Thursday, Tata Motors Ltd., India's top vehicle maker, unveiled the world's cheapest car, the Nano, which will be priced at 100,000 rupees, or about $2,500. Other car makers are promising to follow Tata's lead. Bajaj Auto Ltd. plans to manufacture a small car with Nissan Motor Co. and Renault SA that will be introduced in two to four years.
在Nano 推出之前，铃木汽车(Suzuki Motor Corp.)在印度销售的轿车最为便宜。该公司销售的0.8升Maruti 800的价格大约是Nano的两倍。铃木汽车通过其合资公司Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.在印度的轿车市场中占据了半壁江山。
Until the introduction of the Nano, Suzuki Motor Corp., which controls half of India's car market via its Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. joint venture, sold the cheapest car in India. Its 0.8-liter Maruti 800 is nearly double the price of the Nano.
分析师表示，丰田汽车对印度市场持谨慎态度的一个关键原因是难以在面向印度普通大众生产的同时维系其产品安全可靠的声誉。东京一桥大学 (Hitotsubashi University)组织行为学教授Kazuo Ichijo表示，丰田认识到生产廉价轿车需要大力压缩成本，但他们不想在质量上做出任何牺牲。
Analysts say a key reason for Toyota's cautiousness in India has been the difficulty of mass-market producing while maintaining a reputation for reliability and safety. 'Toyota recognizes the necessity to do radical cost reduction to produce cheaply,' says Kazuo Ichijo, a professor of organizational behavior at Hitotsubashi University in Tokyo. But 'they don't want to make any sacrifice in terms of quality.'
不过，丰田正在努力满足俄罗斯市场上的新兴需求。去年12月，丰田在俄罗斯的首家工厂投产，公司计划再建一家年产量目标为20万至30万辆的工厂。
Still, Toyota is rushing to meet new demand in Russia, where it opened its first factory in December and has plans to build a second with an annual production goal of 200,000 to 300,000 vehicles.
丰田的谨慎也源于工程师和设计人员的短缺现状，建设更多的工厂、推出新车都需要这些人才。近年来车辆召回事件多得反常，连新款Tundra小型货车也上了黑名单。为此丰田的管理人员经常为出现的过错而道歉，也让人们担心丰田汽车的质量可能已经打了折扣。
Toyota's caution also comes from its shortage of engineers and designers, who are required to help build more plants and new cars. Recent years have seen an unusually high number of recalls, including of the new Tundra full-size pickup. These prompted Toyota executives to apologize for their errors and raised fears that quality was being compromised.
丰田还面临着高管人员离职现象增多的问题。去年，37岁的外籍董事会成员、公司资深管理人员吉姆?普瑞斯(Jim Press)跳槽到克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)，另一位高管吉姆?法雷(Jim Farley)则加盟了福特汽车公司(Ford Motor Co.)。
Toyota also has had turnover with senior personnel. Last year, Jim Press, a 37-year Toyota veteran and the top non-Japanese board member, left for Chrysler LLC, and Jim Farley, another top executive, was lured away by Ford Motor Co.
不过，分析师仍相信丰田能够克服这些挑战。KBC Securities驻东京分析师安德鲁?菲利普斯(Andrew Phillips)称，丰田只有在非常有把握的情况下才会有所动作。有时谨慎会让他们止步不前，但你会发现，一旦丰田开始行动，他们就会做得非常好。
Still, analysts remain confident Toyota can overcome these challenges. 'They don't do anything until they're very comfortable about it,' says Andrew Phillips, an analyst for KBC Securities in Tokyo. 'Sometimes that caution has held them back. But what you'll find is once Toyota starts to do something, they do it very well.'
去年，丰田汽车的增长主要受到了发展中国家市场的推动。丰田在中国的销量跃升62%，达到了50万辆。在中东，石油财富带动了对新车的大量需求，丰田的销量实现了19%的增长。非洲市场的销量比2006年增长了18%。而在美国，该公司的汽车销量仅温和增长了3%，至262万辆，在日本国内的销量更是下降了 4%，为226万辆。
Last year, growth was largely driven by sales to the world's developing markets. Toyota's sales in China jumped 62% to 500,000 vehicles. In the Middle East, where oil wealth is creating a huge demand for new automobiles, Toyota sales increased 19%. African sales rose 18% from 2006. By contrast, its U.S. sales were up a moderate 3% to 2.62 million vehicles, while sales in Japan fell 4% to 2.26 million.
近几个月来，丰田和通用一直在你追我赶地争夺销量第一的宝座。不过，即使丰田汽车胜出，这一成果也主要是象征性的。因为当初通用汽车的销量大大领先时，公司就面临着财务上的困难，由于销量下滑和退休金等成本的沉重负担而削减产量，业绩也出现了亏损。
Toyota and GM have been neck and neck competing for the crown of No. 1 car maker in recent months. But even if Toyota has moved ahead, the achievement is largely symbolic. Even when GM was well ahead in sales, it still struggled financially, cutting back production and hemorrhaging money because of declining sales and its heavy burden of costs, such as pensions for its retired workers.
分析师表示，即便丰田坐上了全球汽车厂商的头把交椅，丰田的管理人员也会将自满情绪挡在门外。瑞银证券日本有限公司(UBS Securities Japan Ltd.)驻东京分析师Tatsuo Yoshida认为，这意味着丰田不会有所松懈。它们只会再度制定出更宏大的计划。即使排名第一，管理层也不会庆祝，这不是丰田的风格。丰田总是在制造紧迫感。
Analysts say Toyota executives are resisting any tendency to become complacent if it becomes the world's top auto maker. 'It doesn't mean Toyota is relaxed. They just sharpen up their pencils again to further improve their position,' says Tatsuo Yoshida, auto analyst at UBS Securities Japan Ltd. 'Management is not celebrating the No. 1 position. That is not Toyota's nature. Toyota always creates a sense of urgency.'
John Murphy
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