Rising Oil Costs Stress China's Price Controls
2007年11月08日08:22
继上周提高成品油价格之后，中国政府近日又要求石油公司增加成品油产量，这都体现出原油价格逼近每桶100美元给中国带来的巨大压力。
China continues to show growing signs of stress from oil's surge toward $100, with the government ordering oil companies in recent days to make more fuel following last week's rare increase in pump prices.
中国从11月1日起将成品油价格上调近10%，这也是17个月以来的首次调价。这个出人意料的举措旨在缓解中国炼油商放缓生产而导致的燃油短缺现象。中国炼油商往往以全球市场价买入原油，以中国政府确定的的价格（而非市场价）销售汽油。
The Nov. 1 price increase -- the first in 17 months -- raised China's state-set fuel prices nearly 10%. The surprise move was designed to ease shortages that resulted from slowing production by Chinese oil refiners, which buy oil at global prices but must sell gasoline at state-set, rather than market, prices.
在上调成品油价格后，中国最高经济决策机构国家发展和改革委员会(National Development and Reform Commission)本周早些时候要求中国两大国有炼油商采取其他各种措施保证燃油供应，如提高成品油产量、推迟炼油装置检修时间以及增加燃油进口量等。
In the wake of the increase, the National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic policy maker, told the two main state-owned refiners early this week to take several additional measures, from refining more fuel to delaying maintenance or increasing fuel imports.
虽然中国政府的举措产生了一定的影响──部分加油站的经理表示紧张状况已经有所缓解，而且不再需要限量供应，但全球原油价格的不断攀升正在给中国政府带来再次上调价格的压力。
While the government's moves appear to have had some impact -- some gas-station managers say they are starting to see more supply, and no longer need to ration -- the steady march of global oil prices is already putting pressure on Beijing to raise prices again.
中国石油化工股份有限公司(China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., 简称：中国石化)的一位高层管理人员称，政府最近的价格调整释放了部分压力，但是并未解决根本问题。原油期货价格接近每桶100美元，而他们的销售价格仅为60美元。中国石化仍在赔钱。按产能计，中国石化是中国最大的炼油商。
'The recent price adjustment by the government released the pressure but didn't solve the root of the problem,' said an executive at China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., also called Sinopec, China's biggest refiner by capacity. 'Oil futures are near $100, but the price we sell at is only $60. We are still losing money.'
中国以及印度等亚洲日益富裕的国家对石油需求的不断增长是支撑原油价格不断攀升的重要因素之一。周三，纽约商交所原油期货合约结算价跌33美分，至每桶96.37美元。
China's booming demand for oil, as well as that of other increasingly rich Asian countries such as India, is a key factor underpinning oil's rising price. Oil futures were up 20 cents at $96.90 a barrel in late-morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday.
国际能源署(International Energy Agency)周三表示，中国将在2010年前后超过日本成为仅次于美国的全球第二大石油进口国，这显然表明中国面临的压力不会有任何缓解。而不加抑制的需求增长可能会导致供应紧缺。
Offering scant prospect of relief, the International Energy Agency said yesterday that China will overtake Japan sometime in 2010 to become the world's second-biggest oil importer after the U.S. Unchecked growth could lead to a supply crunch.
中国石化尤其容易受到中国政府控制燃料价格的影响，因该公司炼油所需的大部分原油都必须从市场上购买。中国政府在过去的两年中给予中国石化年终补贴以弥补这种政策性亏损。
Sinopec is especially vulnerable to the effects of China's price controls because it must buy most of the oil it refines. For the past two years, the government has given the company end-of-year subsidies to make up for the losses it incurs.
中国产量最大的原油生产商、第二大炼油商中国石油天然气集团公司(China National Petroleum Corporation., 简称CNPC)自己生产大部分所需原油，但是它也感受到了类似压力。CNPC是上市公司中国石油天然气股份有限公司(PetroChina Corp.)的母公司。
China's biggest oil producer by output and No. 2 refiner, China National Petroleum Corp., parent of listed PetroChina Corp., produces most of its own crude, but it has also felt the squeeze.
此外，中国政府不仅控制成品油价格，而且还严格限制公司通过购买原油期货来对冲市场风险的能力。在其他国家，石油公司可以通过锁定一个长期价格来缩小原油价格波动对公司业务的影响。但是中国的公司几乎是完全暴露在价格波动风险之下，而且这种状况正不断恶化，因为他们现在被迫进口更多的燃油。
Not only does the government tightly control pump prices, but it has, so far, severely restricted companies' ability to hedge market risk by buying oil futures. In other countries, oil companies limit their exposure to oil's volatility by locking in a long-term price. But China's firms are almost totally exposed, and that is getting worse as they are forced to import more fuel.
CNPC下属经济技术研究中心研究员戴家权称，从一个企业的角度来看，根本不可能这样做。
'From a business point of view, this is impossible,' said Dai Jiaquan, a researcher at a think tank under China National Petroleum Corp.
目前为止，中国节能降耗努力所取得的成效喜忧参半。中国政府制定了在五年内把单位GDP的能耗降低20%的目标。中国目前已经成功地提高了能源使用效率，但离其目标仍有差距，因为经济发展正在转向化工及钢铁等高能耗行业。
So far, China's efforts to rein in its roaring energy use have been mixed. The government has set itself a five-year target of reducing the amount of energy it uses per dollar of economic output by 20%. China has managed to increase efficiency but is still off from its goals because of massive shift toward energy-intensive industries such as chemicals and steel.
油价已开始影响到食品价格，这进一步增加了中国政府对通货膨胀的担忧。用来生产食用油或者饲养牲畜的粮食被用作生产乙醇等替代性能源的原料。与此同时，原油价格还推高了天然气价格，后者可以被用来生产化肥。
Oil prices are also starting to hurt food prices, adding to the government's concern about inflation. Crops that can be used for edible oils or feeding livestock are instead being used for alternative fuels like ethanol. And oil is also driving up the price of natural gas, which can be used to make fertilizer for crops.
中国政府限制国内用于生产燃料的粮食数量。但是如果收成不佳，中国将不得不以更高的价格进口粮食。在大连商品交易所交易的大豆期货周三收盘创下历史纪录新高，原因是此前一份报告预测今年大豆产量可能会下降。
Domestically, the government limits the amount of food crops that can be switched to fuel production. But a bad harvest means China will have to import more at higher prices. Soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled at record highs yesterday, after the release of an influential forecast predicted lower crop yields for this year.
根据国家发展改革委员会网站上的一份公告，本周早些时候该机构要求大型油脂企业增加食用植物油生产，使市场价格保持在合理水平。自今年年初以来，植物油价格已经上涨了22%。
Earlier this week, the National Development and Reform Commission asked oil-processing facilities to boost vegetable-oil production and keep the rise in prices 'to a reasonable level,' according to a statement on the commission's Web site. Vegetable prices have risen 22% since the start of year.
Shai Oster
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