油价上涨之谜

The Oil Mystery

油价上涨之谜

Oil prices are sure acting strange, romping higher even as the economic news remains mostly dark. Oil prices are nearing $50 a barrel, a level not seen since the beginning of the year.

油价现在的走势很奇怪，居然能在经济数据仍大多惨不忍睹的情况下走高。现在，油价已经逼近每桶50美元，为今年以来首度探及这一水平。

One of three things might explain the move in oil prices:

以下三点或许可以对油价当前走势做出解释：

1. OPEC is succeeding in reducing output sufficiently to support prices. Given the remarkable nature of everything else in the world, maybe OPEC is succeeding where it has failed so often before. Seems hard to believe, though. Budgetmeisters in Iran and Venezuela, among other places, need lots of income from the sticky stuff to make ends meet. Lower prices mean they need to sell more oil than before. Of course, maybe the Saudis are turning off the spigot since higher prices would help Iraq's budget and economic challenges, and that's a serious neighborhood issue. So, maybe the OPEC cuts are more than talk.

1. 石油输出国组织(OPEC, 简称：欧佩克)通过减产来支撑价格的努力已经见效。不管怎样，欧佩克此次可能是在屡战屡败之后终于得偿所愿了──尽管这听起来有点难以置信。伊朗和委内瑞拉等国的预算制定官员需要很多的石油收入来实现国家收支平衡。油价走低意味着他们必须要比以往销售出更多原油。当然，沙特阿拉伯人减少产量的原因可能是因为考虑到油价走高有利于伊拉克的财政预算、并能帮助它应对经济上的调整。这是一个关系到邻国的严肃问题。所以，欧佩克这次减产或许是动真格了。

2. A weaker dollar can help dollar-based commodity prices, such as oil, rise. While the dollar has enjoyed some support as a reputed haven in times of global crisis, it has traded in a more mixed fashion lately. Could oil prices signal fear of a lower dollar as budget deficits soar? Maybe, but another dollar-sensitive commodity, gold, has been trending lower.

2. 美元走软有助于推高美元计价商品的价格，石油就是其中之一。虽然美元在全球危机时刻所体现的避险性质已让它得到了一定支撑，但是近来美元走势有涨有跌。油价走高是否意味着市场担心美国赤字的飙升会拖低美元？有这样的可能。但另一个对美元汇率十分敏感的商品──黄金则在持续走低。

3. The global economy is surreptitiously starting to bottom out and may even be putting in the seeds of a rebound, which would spell more demand for oil. Surreptitious would be the right word for this since the data are still pretty horrid in the U.S. and elsewhere.

3.全球经济正在不知不觉间触底，并甚至可能为反弹埋下伏笔。而经济反弹将推高原油需求水平。我觉得“不知不觉”这个词很恰当，因为以我们所听所见，不论是美国还是世界其他地方的经济数据都相当糟糕。

None of these choices seem particularly obvious. Number three would be most bullish for stock markets and the global economy, at least in the near term. Number one would just represent successful cartel operations and number two would be a harbinger of more difficulty ahead.

以上三个选项中没有一个显得一目了然。第三条可能对股市和全球经济最为有利，至少短期看来是这样。第一条则表明欧佩克的努力终于取得了成功；而第二条则预示着苦日子还在后面。

If other commodities start to edge higher and the dollar remains OK, then the case for option three will grow. But right now a lot of these commodity prices are bouncing around very low levels, so discerning a strong signal remains challenging.

如果其他大宗商品也开始小幅走高，而美元汇价仍处在正常水平，那么第三个选项的可能性将有所上升。但考虑到现在有多种大宗商品都在围绕极低的水平反弹，因此，要甄别出明确的信号仍有难度。

Dave Kansas

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090310/fea163617.asp