Volvo Bid: A Wreck For Geely?
收购沃尔沃将给吉利带来灾难？
If Chinese auto makers are truly poised to snap up struggling Western brands, the mooted maiden deal isn't much of a start.
如果中国汽车制造商真的准备收购陷入困境的西方品牌，头一桩交易就争议重重，开局不利。
Geely Holding Group is preparing to bid for Volvo, the struggling Swedish firm owned by a similarly troubled Ford Motor Co. And Geely, China's 10th-largest auto maker by sales, may find itself competing against another Chinese company.
吉利控股集团正准备提出收购在困境中挣扎的福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)旗下同样陷入困境的瑞典公司沃尔沃(Volvo)。中国销量排名第十的吉利可能发现自己还要同另一家中国公司竞争。
The prospect of a bidding war for the likes of Volvo, Saab and Opel should please financially strapped sellers such as Ford. But emulating Geely's pursuit of Volvo won't necessarily be as beneficial to Chinese predators or their potential prey.
如果围绕沃尔沃、萨博(Saab)和欧宝(Opel)等公司爆发竞购战，这正是福特汽车等财务拮据的卖家所乐于看到的。但是效仿吉利意欲收购沃尔沃的行为不见得对中国的猎手或他们潜在的猎物有益。
Volvo is now worth half the $6.4 billion Ford paid 10 years ago, analysts say. A hard-nosed Geely could offer half as much again. Even at $1.5 billion, Volvo is a big bite for privately owned Geely. It has little international experience, and a work force only a third as large as Volvo's; the listed Geely Automobile Holdings unit has a market capitalization of about $500 million.
分析师说，沃尔沃目前的价值是福特汽车10年前所付64亿美元价格的一半。精明的吉利提出的报价可能还会再打个半价。即使是15亿美元，沃尔沃对吉利这家私有企业来说也过于庞大，难以下咽。吉利缺乏国际运作的经验，工人数量也只有沃尔沃的三分之一；吉利控股旗下上市子公司吉利汽车的市值约为5亿美元。
Even if Geely could make the numbers add up, Volvo's no prize. It made a $1.5 billion pretax loss last year and a 26% drop in sales. Citi Investment Research says it has a $3.5 billion outstanding loan from Ford and needs substantial investment over the next five years.
即使吉利凑得出这笔钱，沃尔沃也带不来什么好处。去年沃尔沃的税前亏损高达15亿美元，销售额下降了26%。花旗投资研究(Citi Investment Research)说，沃尔沃还欠着福特汽车35亿美元未偿贷款，而且未来五年还需要大笔资金投入。
Why is Geely bothering?
那吉利为何还对此难以割舍呢？
The upscale Volvo brand and its car-safety technology would jumpstart an image makeover for Geely, whose products have a reputation for poor quality. Shifting production to China from Sweden might reduce costs and improve the acquisition numbers. Geely Chairman Li Shufu's international ambitions would be enhanced.
高端的沃尔沃品牌及其汽车安全技术会大大提升吉利的形象。吉利的产品一直被认为质量低劣。将生产从瑞典移到中国可能会降低成本，改善收购后的业绩。吉利董事长李书福进军国际的雄心也会更进一步。
A multicultural personnel integration would be difficult; Daimler's Chrysler fiasco shows how tough these projects can be. Another risk: Volvo could lose some of its high-quality, safety-first luster in the arms of a Chinese owner.
跨文化的人事整合将是一个难点；戴姆勒(Daimler)旗下克莱斯勒(Chrysler)的惨败显示出达成这些目标有多难。另一个风险是，沃尔沃可能会在中国所有者的手中失去其品质一流、安全第一的光环。
There is little positive precedent for Chinese automotive escapades overseas: South Korea's Ssanyong, bought by Shanghai Automotive in 2004, is now in receivership.
中国汽车企业在海外出击的先例也没什么亮点：上海汽车2004年收购的韩国双龙汽车(Ssangyong)目前正在进行破产清算。
Wary of foreign acquisitions outside the favored resources sector, Beijing is probably unenthusiastic about a Geely offer. Geely itself might do well to hope an eventual bid fails.
除了受中国政府青睐的资源业，中国政府对其它海外收购态度谨慎，因而可能对吉利的收购之举并不热衷。吉利本身最好也能有竞购最终失利的准备。
Andrew Peaple
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