Auto Indus Approaches Speed Bump
2008年07月24日11:25
近期中国市场汽车销售的疲软状态或许预示出，中国蓬勃发展的汽车工业、乃至普通消费者未来都将迎来一段更为严峻的时期。
A RECENT WEAKENING in China's auto sales could be signaling tougher times ahead for its booming car industry -- and for the Chinese consumer.
对于美国通用汽车(General Motors)、德国大众汽车(Volkswagen)以及日本的丰田汽车(Toyota Motor)和本田汽车(Honda Motor)来说，中国市场的颓势来得实在不是时候，因为为了保持增长、抵消本土销售不振的负面影响，这些公司都加大了在华生产投入。
It also comes at a bad time for General Motors of the U.S., Volkswagen of Germany and Toyota Motor and Honda Motor of Japan, which all have boosted production in China to sustain their growth and offset lackluster sales at home.
今年全球汽车行业的日子都不好过，因为愈显黯淡的经济前景令各地消费者都在大宗消费面前选择了按兵不动。今年上半年美国的汽车销量较07年同期下滑了10.1%，在欧洲和日本市场，汽车销量的降幅分别为2%和0.9%。
The global auto industry is suffering this year as worsening economic prospects lead consumers world-wide to hold off on big purchases. In the U.S., car sales in the first half of 2008 fell 10.1% from a year earlier; in Europe, they fell 2%, and in Japan, 0.9%.
而相比之下，中国同期汽车销量增长了18.5%，达到520万辆。其中轿车销量增长略逊于整体增幅，为17.1%。其中4、5月份汽车销量增长缓慢，到了6月份时增速则降至略高于15%的水平。
China's vehicle sales, by contrast, increased 18.5% in the first half to 5.2 million units. Growth in sales of passenger vehicles alone was slightly weaker at 17.1%. Sales in April and May were sluggish, and vehicle purchases in June slowed, totaling just over 15% above the number a year earlier.
汽车销售存在一定的周期性，而且中国当前的销售情况也并没有像从前那样急速下降。但是，随着油价走高以及中国整体经济的放缓，预计汽车市场的降温之势将越发明显。周三，中国政府表示将提高大排量汽车的消费税。
Auto sales are cyclical, and China's recent slowdown isn't yet as dramatic as some previous episodes. But with fuel prices rising and China's overall economy slowing, the automobile market is increasingly expected to cool. On Wednesday, the government said it will raise taxes on vehicles with high emissions.
联合证券(United Securities)分析师姚宏光表示，中国汽车行业的高速增长期已告结束，而且将一去不复返。
'The high-growth period for China's auto industry has already passed, and will not return,' says Yao Hongguang, an analyst for United Securities in Shenzhen.
他预计中国今年的汽车销量增幅为15%左右，中期增速将降至12%-13%，远不及06、07年时24%和22%；而且这将给那些断言汽车行业将延续红火势态的各路商家带来麻烦。
Sales are likely to rise about 15% this year, Mr. Yao says, before moderating to 12% to 13% growth in the medium term. That is well down from the 22% growth last year and the 24% jump in 2006, and could pose a problem for businesses that had banked on the boom continuing.
考虑到中国的市场规模，销售增长出现一定程度的放缓似乎也无可避免的。2003年时，中国的汽车销量为430万辆，到了2007年时就达到了880万辆，在这四年时间中销量实现了翻番。此间中国超过日本成为了仅次于美国的全球第二大汽车市场。
Some slowing in China is probably inevitable now, given the sheer size of the market. Annual sales of vehicles have doubled in four years, reaching 8.8 million in 2007 from 4.3 million in 2003. In the process, China overtook Japan as the world's second-largest vehicle market after the U.S.
中国近期的汽车消费动向一直受到了外界的密切关注，并被视为中国消费支出放缓的一个信号。虽然中国的出口行业正在经历着阵痛，但中国今年的经济增速仍超过了 10%，其中消费支出的推动功不可没。食品价格的猛涨可能会使得低收入家庭缩减在其他方面的开支。而股市和房市的双双走软也有可能给收入较高的家庭带来冲击。2008年至今，中国的基准股指已累计下跌了46%。
The recent trend in car purchases is being watched closely as a sign of a possible weakening in consumer spending -- which has helped keep China's economy growing at more than 10% this year, even as its exports suffer. The surge in food prices is likely to leave lower-income households with less money to spend on other things. Higher-income households also could be feeling the squeeze from the drop in the local stock market -- down 46% this year -- and a softer real-estate market.
中国的消费支出前景不甚明朗。即便考虑到通胀率上升的因素，今年截至目前，中国的零售额仍增长了14%-15%，增幅高于去年的12%-13%。然而，政府对消费者信心以及家庭支出所做调查却显示出了下行趋势。
The picture for consumer spending is mixed. Even after taking account of higher inflation, retail sales are rising by 14% to 15% so far this year, picking up from the 12% to 13% pace in 2007. Yet government surveys of consumer confidence and household spending show a declining trend.
中信证券(Citic Securities)驻北京的分析师李春波表示，对今年中国经济增长放缓的预期是造成近期汽车销量下滑的原因之一；消费者预计油价将进一步上涨，这也抑制了汽车消费需求。中国政府在6月份时上调了汽油和柴油的价格；由于考虑到中国市场成品油的价格仍不及国际油价，消费者普遍预计政府日后还会再次提高价格。
'The expectation of slower growth this year is one of the reasons behind the slowing trend in car sales in China. Consumer expectations of further rises in fuel prices will also suppress the demand for cars,' says Li Chunbo, an analyst with Citic Securities in Beijing. Government-set prices for gasoline and diesel were raised in June, and are widely expected to go up again as they remain below international levels.
即便中国的汽车销售增长没有出现明显放缓，那些认定销量将出现更快增长的汽车制造商最终也可能要面对产能过剩的苦果。雷曼兄弟 (Lehman Brothers)驻香港经济学家孙明春表示，中国的汽车销量仍在以两位数增长，这无疑是非常强劲的，但产能增长甚至比需求还要迅猛，这正是令我感到担心的地方；我认为这些汽车厂家在过去几年太过乐观，产能增加过度。
Even if growth in auto purchases doesn't slow much, manufacturers who had been counting on faster growth could end up with excess capacity. 'Demand is still growing at double-digit rates, it's very strong. The reason I am concerned is that the capacity growth is even stronger,' says Sun Mingchun, an economist for Lehman Brothers in Hong Kong. 'I think the auto makers were too optimistic in the past few years, and built up too much capacity.'
投资者似乎对这一点也颇为认同，他们抛售了中国几家大型汽车企业的股票。在上海证交所上市、并分别和通用汽车以及大众汽车建有合资企业的上海汽车(SAIC Motor Co.)今年的股价已重挫了68%。和本田汽车在广州设有一家合资工厂、并拥有一半股份的骏威汽车(Denway Motors.)今年股价累计下滑了42%。宝马汽车(BMW)在华合作伙伴华晨中国汽车(Brilliance China Automotive Holdings.)的股价下跌了47%。这两家公司的股票均在香港交易所上市。
Investors appear to agree, and have punished the stocks of leading Chinese auto makers. SAIC Motor, which has joint ventures with General Motors and Volkswagen, has seen the price of its Shanghai-traded shares drop 68% this year. Hong Kong-listed Denway Motors, which owns half of a Honda plant in Guangzhou, is down 42%. Shares in the Chinese partner of BMW, Brilliance China Automotive Holdings, are off 47%, also in Hong Kong.
眼下汽车制造企业已经在为成本不断上升而挠头，产能过剩的问题则可能给车价带来更多下行压力。东方证券(Orient Securities)估算，在中国，汽车制造行业所必需的轮胎和玻璃价格分别上涨了5%及10%，而塑料和钢材的价格更是上涨了40%以上。
Excess capacity could put downward pressure on car prices just when manufacturers are facing surging costs. Car makers in China are facing a 5% increase in tire prices, a 10% increase in glass prices, and a more than 40% increase in prices for plastic and steel, according to estimates by Orient Securities.
此外，中国消费者购买倾向的变化已让汽车制造企业疲于应对。中国汽车工业协会(China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)提供的数据显示，今年上半年，主要致力于生产人民币80,000元（约合12,000美元）以下低档汽车的本土厂家奇瑞汽车 (Chery Automobile Co.)销量增幅仅为0.7%。分析师指出，低端市场在油价上涨面前最为敏感。
And manufacturers already are struggling to adjust to the evolution of Chinese consumer preferences. First-half sales by unlisted Chery Automobile, a manufacturer of domestic-brand cars that has specialized in vehicles costing less than 80,000 yuan ($12,000), increased just 0.7% from a year earlier, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Analysts say the lower-income market is most sensitive to the rise in fuel costs.
行业分析师指出，今年通用汽车和大众汽车在中国的市场份额似乎略有下降，不过，丰田、本田等日本品牌却赢得了更多的市场占有率。
Industry analysts report that Japanese brands such as Toyota and Honda are gaining market share this year, while the local market share of General Motors and Volkswagen appears to be declining slightly.
仍有很多分析师对去年11月才在港上市的中国重汽（香港）有限公司(Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Ltd.)青睐有加。这家公司隶属于国有企业中国重汽集团(China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Co.)，今年截至目前，该股已经累计下跌了37%。
A vehicle manufacturer that many analysts still like is newly listed Sinotruk (Hong Kong), an arm of state-controlled China National Heavy Duty Truck. The stock, which was listed in Hong Kong in November, has fallen 37% this year.
令部分经纪行对这只股票感到乐观的原因之一就是该公司服务于商用市场，并不依赖于消费需求。
One reason some brokerages are positive about Sinotruk is that its nonpassenger vehicles serve a business market and don't depend on consumer demand.
摩根大通公司(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)亚洲汽车行业研究主管Frank Li指出，中国的重型汽车需求增长与固定资产投资增长高度相关。
'There is a strong correlation between China's heavy-truck demand growth and China's fixed-asset investment growth,' says Frank Li, head of Asian auto research at J.P. Morgan Chase.
他指出，由于中国政府不断开建新的公共项目，投资增长应能保持于高位，与出口或消费支出相比，重型汽车的需求可能更加坚挺。
As the government can keep investment growth high with new public-works projects, it could prove more resilient than exports or consumer spending, he says.
Andrew Batson
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