The Holdup To Electric Cars Explained
2008年07月22日14:15
最近的油价飙升大大推动了这样一个观点：认为交通能源应当来自电网而非中东的油井。
One of the Big Ideas that has gotten a boost from the recent oil-price shock is the notion that the energy for transportation should come from the electric grid, not an oil well in the Middle East.
一些老牌大汽车厂商已经宣布计划，要生产完全或部分电力驱动的汽车。它们与Tesla Motors等一些新兴公司一道，试图通过确立新一代动力技术而实现长足发展。
A number of big, established car makers have announced plans to produce cars that will pull from the electric grid all or part of the energy needed to make them go. They join a flock of upstart companies, such as Tesla Motors, trying to prosper by defining a new generation of mobility technology.
正当人们为日常出行的电气化前景兴奋不已之际，通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)前董事长兼首席执行长罗伯特?施 佩尔(Robert Stempel)却对此泼了点冷水。
For everyone excited about electrifying the morning commute, Robert Stempel, the former chairman and chief executive officer of General Motors Corp., has a few sobering words.
施佩尔是电动汽车的支持者──他的“电动”概念包括了纯电动系统以及油电混合系统。在GM任职期间，他就曾为GM开发EV1电动汽车开了绿灯。在1992年 GM的上一次大规模财务危机之时，施佩尔由于董事会纷争而被排挤出GM，随后时间他继续投身电动汽车的计划。接下来，他出任美国电池生产商Energy Conversion Devices Inc.董事长十余年，直到去年离职。
Mr. Stempel believes in the idea of electric-drive cars -- he uses the term 'electric drive' to encompass both all-electric systems and plug-in hybrids. He gave the green light to development of an electric car, GM's EV1. After he was pushed out of GM by a boardroom coup during the auto maker's last big financial crisis in 1992, Mr. Stempel continued to devote himself to the electric-car idea. He spent more than a decade as chairman of U.S. battery maker Energy Conversion Devices Inc. before leaving the company last year.
无论在GM还是Energy Conversion Devices，施 佩尔推动电动汽车商业化的努力都遇到了无数难关。GM因停止EV1项目而饱受批评。当时已离职很久的施 佩尔表示，停止该项目没有任何托词。
At both GM and at Energy Conversion Devices, Mr. Stempel's efforts to make a profitable business out of electric vehicles hit numerous potholes. GM has taken flak for killing the EV1. Mr. Stempel, who was long gone when the plug was pulled, says there was no subterfuge involved.
他说，这个项目无利可图，EV1成本太高，大大超出了成本目标。
'The business side of the case wasn't there. The EV1 was too expensive . . . We were way off the cost target,' he says.
现为底特律郊外一家事务所顾问的施 佩尔说，电动汽车实现大规模生产的障碍与当年爱迪生告诉福特一年之内就可以给他的汽车装上电池时的情况一样，薄弱之处就在于电池。
Mr. Stempel, now a consultant with an office in suburban Detroit, says the obstacle to mass production of electric vehicles is the same issue as it was 'when Mr. Edison told Mr. Ford that in a year he'd have a battery for his car. The weak link is the battery.'
他说，镍氢电池已证明是可靠的，不会出现燃烧等不稳定的情况。但镍氢电池的行驶里程无法与传统汽车竞争。
Nickel metal hydride, or NiMH, batteries have proven reliable, he says. 'It doesn't do anything naughty, like burn up,' he says. But NiMH batteries don't have the range to be competitive with conventional cars.
类似笔记本电脑电池的锂电池技术能较为轻便小巧，同时提供更长的行驶里程。但锂电池确实有不稳定的特性。Tesla Roadster就使用与笔记本电脑相似的锂电池。Tesla最重要的技术并不是电池本身，而是其工程师们设计的确保电池散热及运转正常的控制系统。
Lithium-ion battery technology, similar to that used in laptop computers, offers better range from smaller, lighter packages. But lithium-ion batteries do have a propensity to be naughty. The Tesla Roadster uses lithium-ion batteries similar to those used in laptops. Tesla's important technology idea isn't the commodity batteries. It's the systems Tesla engineers designed to assure they stay cool and under control.
施 佩尔担心，将数千个笔记本电池堆到一辆车上会造成一个“控制的噩梦”。
Piling thousands of laptop batteries into a car creates 'a control nightmare,' Mr. Stempel worries.
还有就是成本的问题。施 佩尔说，看看镍的成本变动，该金属价格已经大幅飙升。他说，在最近的大宗商品涨价潮中，许多电池原材料商品的价格都出现大涨。
Then there's the issue of cost. 'Look at what happened to the cost of nickel,' says Mr. Stempel. 'The price of nickel has gone off the charts.' A lot of the commodities used in batteries have gotten expensive in the recent commodity price boom, he says.
但这些并不意味着汽车行业应当再次放弃电力驱动汽车。在降低经济对石油的依赖性的问题上，美国人开车烧掉了多少油并不是一个普通问题，而是极其重大的问题。但消费者还是需要冷静看待最近媒体大炒电力驱动汽车新车型的消息。
None of this necessarily means the auto industry should once again give up on electric-drive cars. When it comes to reducing the economy's dependence on oil, the amount Americans burn up in cars isn't one issue. It is THE issue. But consumers need to take the latest flurry of press releases touting forthcoming electric-drive vehicle models with a few grains of salt.
汽油内燃机主宰汽车业上百年有一个很合理的理由：以动力的单位成本计，它比其他动力更合算。施 佩尔说，就单位马力成本而言，汽油动力汽车比电动车经济五到十倍，这取决于尾 排放标准的严格程度。
The petroleum-fueled internal combustion engine has dominated automotive transportation for a century for a good reason: On the basis of power per dollar, it's more cost effective than the competition. Depending on how strictly one controls the emissions, Mr. Stempel says, a gasoline fueled car can be five to 10 times more efficient on a dollars-per-horsepower basis than an electric car.
电动汽车面临的挑战也凸显了美国当前能源论战背后的一个大问题：我们应该在多大程度上相信科技能拯救我们？
The challenges confronting the drive to electrify automobiles point to a big question underlying the current energy debate in America: How much faith should we have in technology to bail us out?
就汽车业未来而言，这就是技术派与怀疑派之争。技术派认为，电池技术、储氢技术、纤维素乙醇生产、水分解制氢系统以及轻型汽车的设计等方面的技术创新都已近在眼前。
When it comes to the future of cars, it's Technologists vs. Skeptics. Technologists believe that innovations in battery technology, hydrogen storage, cellulosic ethanol production, water-to-hydrogen systems, and lightweight vehicle design are right around the corner.
而怀疑论者则认为，能真正取代燃油动力车的技术还需要数年甚至数十年才能研发成熟。
Skeptics, though, contend that the technology to substantially displace oil-fired mobility will take years, maybe decades, to develop.
Joseph B. White
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