China's Oil Refiners Struggle
2008年05月09日11:10
全球油价飙升令中国的综合性石油巨头深受打击。政府稳定油价、让国内消费者免受能源成本上涨冲击的政策大大降低了这些企业的盈利能力。然而对于主要从事石油勘探业务的中国公司，其股票却可能对投资者仍具有吸引力。
SURGING global oil prices are bleeding China's integrated oil giants as they get squeezed by government policies to insulate the nation's consumers from higher energy costs. But shares in Chinese companies that specialize in exploring for oil may still be attractive to investors.
中国有两家从事原油生产和成品油销售的大型综合性石油公司：中国石油天然气股份有限公司(Petrochina Co.)和中国石油化工股份有限公司(China Petroleum & Chemical)。它们都遭受了国际原油价格突破每桶120美元和国内成品油价格仍被限制在低得多的水平带来的双重打击。中国的石油公司本质上都由国家控制，因此尽管出现亏损，也要面临保障国内市场供应的政治压力。
China has two big integrated oil companies that both produce oil and sell refined fuels: PetroChina and China Petroleum & Chemical, or Sinopec. They are feeling the pinch, caught between international crude prices breaching $120 a barrel and domestic fuel prices capped at much lower levels. China's oil companies are ultimately controlled by the state and face political pressure to keep domestic markets supplied despite losses.
油价持续上涨对中国石化的利润冲击尤其大。这家中国最大的成品油销售企业有72%的石油都要从外部购买，这使其非常容易受到国家政策的影响，比如，国家政策就不允许该公司以更高的价格向国外销售成品油。
The sustained rise in oil prices has been especially hard on the bottom line of Sinopec, China's biggest seller of fuel. Sinopec has to buy 72% of the oil it refines from other producers, leaving it dangerously exposed to state policies. And state policies prevent it from selling fuel for a higher price abroad.
在2008年第一季度，中国石化的净利润比上年同期下降了69%，是2000年首次公开募股(IPO)以来跌幅最大的一次。如果不是获得了人民币73亿元（约合10.4亿美元）的政府补贴，中国石化今年1至3月份甚至会出现亏损。
In the first quarter of 2008, Sinopec's net profit plunged 69% from a year earlier -- its biggest decline since doing an initial public offering in 2000. Sinopec would have posted a loss for the January-March period if not for a 7.3 billion yuan ($1.04 billion) government subsidy.
里昂证券亚太市场(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)能源研究部主管关荣乐(Gordon Kwan)在4月份将中国石化的评级下调为卖出，将其12个月目标股价定为6港元。中国石化在香港上市的H股周四下跌3.3%，收于7.87港元（约合1.01美元），今年以来累计下跌了33%。中国石化还有美国存托凭证和A股分别在美国和上海证交所上市。
Gordon Kwan, head of energy research at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, downgraded Sinopec to a sell in April with a 12-month target price of HK$6. Hong Kong shares of Sinopec, which also is listed in Shanghai and has American depositary receipts, fell 3.3% Thursday to HK$7.87 (US$1.01). The stock is down 33% this year.
中国石油是中国原油产量最高的石油企业。该公司的情况稍好一些，第一季度的净利润下降了31%，中国石油所开采原油主要供应给旗下的炼油厂，它不需从外部大量购买原油。该公司也面临着保障国内市场供应的政治压力，尽管这意味着经济损失。
PetroChina, China's biggest oil producer by volume, fared little better, with first-quarter net profit tumbling 31% -- even though it pumps most of the oil it sells, rather than having to buy it from other producers. It is also under political pressure to keep domestic markets supplied, even if it means losing money.
在中国石油4月份公布业绩后，高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)能源分析师许利源(Kevin Koh)将该公司股票的评级下调为卖出，原因是炼油损失扩大。他将该股的12个月目标价从14.10港元下调到了10.70港元。周四，中国石油下跌0.28港元，收于11.18港元。2008年迄今，该股已下跌了20%。
After PetroChina's earnings announcement in April, Kevin Koh, an energy analyst at Goldman Sachs, downgraded the stock to a sell because of widening refining losses. He cut his 12-month target price to HK$10.70 from HK$14.10. On Thursday, PetroChina shares dropped 28 Hong Kong cents, or 2.4%, to HK$11.18. They have fallen 20% in 2008.
不过，中国没有涉足炼油或成品油零售业务的石油生产和勘探公司却颇具吸引力，因为它们受国内能源政策的影响较小。
Still, China-based oil production and exploration companies that aren't involved in refining or retailing fuel are appealing because they are less exposed to domestic energy policy.
中国最大的海上石油生产商中国海洋石油总公司(Cnooc)就是其中的上佳选择。该公司没有披露季度净利润，但曾表示第一季度的收入比去年同期增长了61%。中海油是高盛在亚洲的首选股票之一，许利源对该股的12个月价格预期为16.50港元。中海油周四上涨0.14港元，收于14.02港元，今年以来累计上涨了5.6%。
A top pick is Cnooc, China's main offshore-oil producer. It doesn't disclose quarterly net profit, but it has said first-quarter revenue rose 61% from a year earlier. Cnooc is one of Goldman's top Asia picks, and Mr. Koh has a 12-month target of HK$16.50. Shares of Cnooc gained 14 Hong Kong cents, or 1%, to HK$14.02 Thursday and are up 5.6% this year.
去年，中海油的一些生产目标没有完成，原因之一在于恶劣的天气，比如台风就曾给一个海上油田造成了损失。但今年，该公司的油气产量有望比2007年增长15%。
Last year, Cnooc had trouble hitting some of its production targets, partly because of bad weather such as a typhoon that damaged an oil field. But this year, the company looks on track to increase oil and gas output 15% from 2007.
在经历了一段时间的蛰伏后，中海油似乎又计划重启海外收购，包括可能进入墨西哥湾，这也将是中海油自2005年在竞购加州联合石油公司(Unocal Corp)的过程中输给雪佛龙(Chevron Corp.)后首次将目光瞄向了美国。
After a period of looking inward, Cnooc appears poised to resume overseas acquisitions, including a possible foray into the Gulf of Mexico, which would be its first U.S. approach since a 2005 losing battle with Chevron Corp. for California producer Unocal Corp.
花旗集团(Citigroup)分析师康宁汉(Graham Cunningham)在近期的研究报告中写道，鉴于极佳的增长前景，中海油具备了良好的投资价值。
Cnooc offers 'good value considering the excellent growth outlook,' analyst Graham Cunningham of Citigroup wrote in a recent note.
东方证券(Orient Securities)驻上海分析师王晶说，中海油的情况与另两家石油公司有很大不同，投资者因此应对其保持乐观。她还感觉中国石化和中国石油在上海市场上市的A股目前已被低估。
Wang Jing, an analyst for Orient Securities in Shanghai, says Cnooc's situation 'is very different from the other two oil companies. Therefore, investors should be optimistic about it.' She also feels that the Shanghai-listed shares of Sinopec and PetroChina are now undervalued.
另一家在中国对石油的巨大需求中处于有利位置、同时又没有政府价格控制负担的公司是中信资源(Citic Resources Holdings)，该公司的主要资产是在哈萨克斯坦的一个油田。随着中信资源投入资金对其进行升级改造，这个油田的产量预计将大大增加。高盛的许利源说，原油价格每上涨1美元，中信资源的净利润就会增长1.8%。高盛将该公司股票的评级定为买进，并在本月将其12个月目标价从5.25港元上调至6.20港元。周四，该股上涨0.17港元，收于4.07港元。
Another company well-positioned to take advantage of China's oil demand without the burden of continued government price caps is Citic Resources Holdings, whose primary asset is an oil field in Kazakhstan. Production is expected to increase sharply as the company invests in upgrades. Goldman's Mr. Koh says a $1 increase in the price of oil could raise Citic Resources' net profit 1.8%. Goldman, which has a 'buy' rating on the stock, this month raised its 12-month target to HK$6.20 from HK$5.25. On Thursday, the shares gained 17 Hong Kong cents to HK$4.07.
这些预测面临的主要风险将是中国能源政策的突然改变。这种可能性不大，因为政府目前已经担心通胀的加剧正让消费者叫苦不迭。电力、柴油和汽油的价格都受到了控制。瑞银(UBS)经济学家乔纳森?安德森(Jonathan Anderson)认为，政府在一段时期内将继续执行这一政策，因为它仍负担得起为成品油和电力企业的损失提供补贴。
The main risk to these predictions would be a sudden change in China's energy policy. That seems unlikely because the government is already concerned that rising inflation is hurting consumers. Electricity, diesel and gasoline prices have all been held in check. UBS economist Jonathan Anderson believes the government will continue this policy for a while because it can still afford to subsidize some losses of fuel and power producers.
政府还采取了其他一些措施以缓解石油公司的压力。今年4月，财政部宣布对进口柴油和汽油实行增值税先征后返，以鼓励成品油进口，避免重现去年成品油短缺的局面。
The government has taken some other measures to try to ease oil companies' pain. In April, the Ministry of Finance announced some refunds on value-added tax for diesel and gasoline imports in order to encourage more fuel imports and prevent a repeat of last year's shortfall.
不过，一些分析师表示，真正需要做的事情是改变石油暴利税的起征点。分析师说，应将现行的油价超过每桶40美元即征暴利税至少调整为油价超过每桶60美元再行征收，因为石油生产的成本已经提高，长期石油价格也在走高。业内观察人士指出，这一调整最早有可能在今年第三季度实施。调整暴利税会提高石油公司的利润率，同时又不会造成成品油零售价的上涨。
However, some analysts say that what is really needed is a change in the special oil income levy, or windfall-profits tax, a graduated tax on oil profits with a minimum threshold of $40 a barrel. Analysts say the threshold should be raised to $60 or higher because oil production costs have risen, and long-term oil prices are also higher. Industry observers say such a change could come as early as the third quarter of this year. Adjusting that tax could fatten profit margins without the need to raise fuel prices on consumers.
但也有分析师对短期内调整暴利税持怀疑态度。中国的石油公司目前仍扮演着一半是公用事业公司、一半是西方式上市公司的尴尬角色。
But other analysts doubt changes will come soon. China's oil companies are still in an awkward stage where they are part public utility, part Western-style listed company.
尽管整个石油行业都面临着石油开采和勘探难度加大带来的成本上升问题，但中国企业还要面对政府有时将社会目标置于公司盈利之上的额外风险。这可能令判断公司价值成为一个棘手的问题。
While the entire oil industry faces challenges stemming from rising costs of harder-to-produce and -find oil fields, the Chinese face the added risk of government owners that sometimes put social goals ahead of the bottom line. That can make judging companies' value a tricky proposition.
高盛的许利源在周二的研究报告中写道：我们认为，预测中国石油和中国石化的收益无异于一门艺术，因为炼油亏损的扩大会带来频繁的政策调整。
'We believe forecasting PetroChina and Sinopec's earnings has become an art form as widening refining losses have precipitated frequent policy adjustments,' Mr. Koh wrote Tuesday in a note.
Shai Oster
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